Search results for: variable prices.

Authors: V. Komarova

Abstract:

The main purpose of this research is the calculation of implicit prices of the environmental level of air quality in the city of Moscow on the basis of housing property prices. The database used contains records of approximately 20 thousand apartments and has been provided by a leading real estate agency operating in Russia. The explanatory variables include physical characteristics of the houses, environmental (industry emissions), neighbourhood sociodemographic and geographic data: GPS coordinates of each house. The hedonic regression results for ecological variables show «negative» prices while increasing the level of air contamination from such substances as carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, and particles (CO, NO2, SO2, TSP). The marginal willingness to pay for higher environmental quality is presented for linear and log-log models.

Keywords: Air pollution, environment, hedonic prices, real estate, willingness to pay.

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Authors: Y. Bhatt, N. Ghosh, N. Tiwari

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Acreage response function are modeled taking account of expected harvest prices, weather related variables and other non-price variables allowing for partial adjustment possibility. At the outset, based on the literature on price expectation formation, we explored suitable formulations for estimating the farmer’s expected prices. Assuming that farmers form expectations rationally, the prices of food and biofuel crops are modeled using time-series methods for possible ARCH/GARCH effects to account for volatility. The prices projected on the basis of the models are then inserted to proxy for the expected prices in the acreage response functions. Food crop acreages in different growing states are found sensitive to their prices relative to those of one or more of the biofuel crops considered. The required percentage improvement in food crop yields is worked to offset the acreage loss.

Keywords: Acreage response function, biofuel, food security, sustainable development.

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Authors: K. Gabdullin, Y. Bek Ali, N. Aldabek

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This paper explores oil prices changes impact on energy policy of Kazakhstan in 2001-2009. It involves the role of oil income to the economic development, process of diversification of internal and external energy policy of Kazakhstan, and the changes in oil law towards subsoil users.

Keywords: diversification, internal energy policy, external energy policy, high oil prices, modernization

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Authors: Osamah A. Alsayegh

Abstract:

This paper contributes to the literature by updating the analysis of the impact of the recent oil prices fall on the renewable energy (RE) industry and deployment. The research analysis uses the Renewable Energy Industrial Index (RENIXX), which tracks the world’s 30 largest publicly traded companies and oil prices daily data from January 2003 to March 2016. RENIXX represents RE industries developing solar, wind, geothermal, bioenergy, hydropower and fuel cells technologies. This paper tests the hypothesis that claims high oil prices encourage the substitution of alternate energy sources for conventional energy sources. Furthermore, it discusses RENIXX performance behavior with respect to the governments’ policies factor that investors should take into account. Moreover, the paper proposes a theoretical model that relates RE industry progress with oil prices and policies through the fuzzy logic system.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, investment, policy, stock exchange index.

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Authors: Mei-Se Chien, Chien-Chiang Lee, Sin-Jie Cai

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The main purpose of this paper is to investigate thelong-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics of international housing prices when macroeconomic variables change. We apply the Pedroni’s, panel cointegration, using the unbalanced panel data analysis of 33 countries over the period from 1980Q1 to 2013Q1, to examine the relationships among house prices and macroeconomic variables. Our empirical results of panel data cointegration tests support the existence of a cointegration among these macroeconomic variables and house prices. Besides, the empirical results of panel DOLS further present that a 1% increase in economic activity, long-term interest rates, and construction costs cause house prices to respectively change 2.16%, -0.04%, and 0.22% in the long run.Furthermore, the increasing economic activity and the construction cost would cause strongerimpacts on the house prices for lower income countries than higher income countries.The results lead to the conclusion that policy of house prices growth can be regarded as economic growth for lower income countries. Finally, in America region, the coefficient of economic activity is the highest, which displays that increasing economic activity causes a faster rise in house prices there than in other regions. There are some special cases whereby the coefficients of interest rates are significantly positive in America and Asia regions.

Keywords: House prices, Macroeconomic Variables, Panel cointegration, Dynamic OLS.

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Authors: Zainudin Arsad, Norul Baine Mat Johor

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Tourism industry is an important sector in Malaysia economy and this motivates the examination of long-run relationships between tourist arrivals from three selected European countries in Malaysia and four possible determinants; relative prices, exchange rates, transportation cost and relative prices of substitute destination. The study utilizes data from January 1999 to September 2008 and employs standard econometric techniques that include unit root test and cointegration test. The estimated demand model indicates that depreciation of local currency and increases in prices at substitute destination have positive impact on tourist arrivals while increase in transportation cost has negative impact on tourist arrivals. In addition, the model suggests that higher rate of increase in local prices relative to prices at tourist country of origin may not deter tourists from coming to Malaysia

Keywords: origin country, unit root test, cointegration test

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Authors: Raif Parlakkaya, Ahmet Diken, Erkan Kara

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This paper examines the relationship between corporate governance rating and stock prices of 26 Turkish firms listed in Turkish stock exchange (Borsa Istanbul) by using panel data analysis over five-year period. The paper also investigates the stock performance of firms with governance rating with regards to the market portfolio (i.e. BIST 100 Index) both prior and after governance scoring began. The empirical results show that there is no relation between corporate governance rating and stock prices when using panel data for annual variation in both rating score and stock prices. Further analysis indicates surprising results that while the selected firms outperform the market significantly prior to rating, the same performance does not continue afterwards.

Keywords: Corporate governance, stock price, performance, panel data analysis.

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Authors: Cielito F. Habito, Michael O. Santos, Andres G. Victorio

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A property-s selling price is described as the result of sequential bargaining between a buyer and a seller in an environment of asymmetric information. Hedonic housing prices are estimated based upon 17,333 records of New Zealand residential properties sold during the years 2006 and 2007.

Keywords: Housing demand, hedonics and valuation, residentialmarkets.

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Authors: Marin Mandić, Elis Sutlović, Tonći Modrić, Luka Stanić

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With the restructuring and deregulation of the power system, storage owners, generation companies or private producers can offer their multiple services on various power markets and earn income in different types of markets, such as the day-ahead, real-time, ancillary services market, etc. During the COVID-19 pandemic, electricity prices, as well as ancillary services prices, increased significantly. The optimization of the energy storage operation was performed using a suitable model for simulating the operation of a pumped storage hydropower plant under market conditions. The objective function maximizes the income earned through energy arbitration, regulation-up, regulation-down and spinning reserve services. The optimization technique used for solving the objective function is mixed integer linear programming (MILP). In numerical examples, the pumped storage hydropower plant operation has been optimized considering the already achieved hourly electricity market prices from Nord Pool for the pre-pandemic (2019) and the pandemic (2020 and 2021) years. The impact of the electricity market prices during the COVID-19 pandemic on energy storage operation is shown through the analysis of income, operating hours, reserved capacity and consumed energy for each service. The results indicate the role of energy storage during a significant fluctuation in electricity and services prices.

Keywords: Electrical market prices, electricity market, energy storage optimization, mixed integer linear programming, MILP, optimization.

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Authors: Hazem M. El-Bakry, Nikos Mastorakis

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Fast forecasting of stock market prices is very important for strategic planning. In this paper, a new approach for fast forecasting of stock market prices is presented. Such algorithm uses new high speed time delay neural networks (HSTDNNs). The operation of these networks relies on performing cross correlation in the frequency domain between the input data and the input weights of neural networks. It is proved mathematically and practically that the number of computation steps required for the presented HSTDNNs is less than that needed by traditional time delay neural networks (TTDNNs). Simulation results using MATLAB confirm the theoretical computations.

Keywords: Fast Forecasting, Stock Market Prices, Time Delay NeuralNetworks, Cross Correlation, Frequency Domain.

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Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

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Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two hybrid price prediction models using artificial neural network and long short-term memory (ANN-LSTM), by Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices, traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022 and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices, and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation, and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-month prediction model is better than the 1-month prediction model; but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: Copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting.

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Authors: E. Dahlen

Abstract:

Inflation can be calculated from either the prices of consumer products or from salaries. This paper presents a logical exercise that shows it is easier to calculate inflation from salaries than from consumer products. While the prices of consumer products may change due to technological advancement, such as automation, which must be corrected for, salaries do not. If technological advancements are not accounted for within calculations based on consumer product prices, inflation can be confused with real wage changes, since both inflation and real wage changes affect the prices of consumer products. The method employed in this paper is a logical exercise. Logical arguments are presented that suggest the existence of many different feasible ways by which inflation can be determined. Then a short mathematical exercise will be presented which shows that one of these methods –using salaries – contains the fewest number of unknown parameters, and hence, is the preferred method, since the risk of mistakes is lower. From the results, it can be concluded that salaries, rather than consumer products, should be used to calculate inflation.

Keywords: Inflation, logic, math, real wages.

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Authors: H. Shayeghi, H. Hosseini, A. Shabani, M. Mahdavi

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In this paper, optimal generation expansion planning (GEP) is investigated considering purchase prices, profits of independent power producers (IPPs) and reliability criteria using a new method based on hybrid coded Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). In this approach, optimal purchase price of each IPP is obtained by HCGA and reliability criteria are calculated by PSO technique. It should be noted that reliability criteria and the rate of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission have been considered as constraints of the GEP problem. Finally, the proposed method has been tested on the case study system. The results evaluation show that the proposed method can simply obtain optimal purchase prices of IPPs and is a fast method for calculation of reliability criteria in expansion planning. Also, considering the optimal purchase prices and profits of IPPs in generation expansion planning are caused that the expansion costs are decreased and the problem is solved more exactly.

Keywords: GEP Problem, IPPs, Reliability Criteria, GA, PSO.

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Authors: M. G. M. Khan, V. D. Prasad, D. K. Rao

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In this manuscript, we discuss the problem of determining the optimum stratification of a study (or main) variable based on the auxiliary variable that follows a uniform distribution. If the stratification of survey variable is made using the auxiliary variable it may lead to substantial gains in precision of the estimates. This problem is formulated as a Nonlinear Programming Problem (NLPP), which turn out to multistage decision problem and is solved using dynamic programming technique.

Keywords: Auxiliary variable, Dynamic programming technique, Nonlinear programming problem, Optimum stratification, Uniform distribution.

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Authors: Robest Flasza, Milan Rippel, Jan Solc

Abstract:

The main aim of this paper is to develop and calibrate an econometric model for modeling prices of long term electricity futures contracts. The calibration of our model is performed on data from EEX AG allowing us to capture the specific features of German electricity market. The data sample contains several structural breaks which have to be taken into account for modeling. We model the data with an ARIMAX model which reveals high correlation between the price of electricity futures contracts and prices of LT futures contracts of fuels (namely coal, natural gas and crude oil). Besides this, also a share price index of representative electricity companies traded on Xetra, spread between 10Y and 1Y German bonds and exchange rate between EUR and USD appeared to have significant explanatory power over these futures contracts on EEX.

Keywords: electricity futures, EEX, ARIMAX, emissionallowances

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Authors: C. A. Akaash Emmanuel Raj, V. R. Sanal Kumar

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In this paper using smart materials we have proposed a specially manufactured variable volume spin tub for loading clothes for negating the vibration to a certain extent for getting better operating performance. Additionally, we have recommended a variable spinning speed rotor for handling varieties of garments for an efficient washing, aiming for increasing the life span of both the garments and the machine. As a part of the conflicting dynamic constraints and demands of the customer friendly design optimization of a lucrative and cosmetic washing machine we have proposed a drier and a desalination system capable to supply desirable heat and a pleasing fragrance to the garments. We thus concluded that while incorporating variable volume and variable spinning speed tub integrated with a drier and desalination system, the washing machine could meet the varieties of domestic requirements of the customers cost-effectively.

Keywords: Customer friendly washing machine, drier design, quick cloth cleaning, variable tub volume washing machine, variable spinning speed washing machine.

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Authors: Aneta Oblouková, Eva Vítková

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The article deals with the issue of water and sewerage charge rate prices in the Czech Republic. The research is specifically focused on the analysis of the development of the average prices of water and sewerage charge rate in the Czech Republic in 1994-2021 and on the validation of the chosen methodology relevant for the prediction of the development of the average prices of water and sewerage charge rate in the Czech Republic. The research is based on data collection. The data for this research were obtained from the Czech Statistical Office. The aim of the paper is to validate the relevance of the mathematical linear trend estimate technique for the calculation of the predicted average prices of water and sewerage charge rates. The real values of the average prices of water and sewerage charge rates in the Czech Republic in 1994-2018 were obtained from the Czech Statistical Office and were converted into a mathematical equation. The same type of real data was obtained from the Czech Statistical Office for 2019-2021. Prediction of the average prices of water and sewerage charge rates in the Czech Republic in 2019-2021 was also calculated using a chosen method – a linear trend estimation technique. The values obtained from the Czech Statistical Office and the values calculated using the chosen methodology were subsequently compared. The research result is a validation of the chosen mathematical technique to be a suitable technique for this research.

Keywords: Czech Republic, linear trend estimation, price prediction, water and sewerage charge rate.

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Authors: Jae Wook Shin, Ju-man Song, Hyun-Taek Choi, Poo Gyeon Park

Abstract:

This paper introduces a new variable step-size APA with decorrelation of AR input process is based on the MSD analysis. To achieve a fast convergence rate and a small steady-state estimation error, he proposed algorithm uses variable step size that is determined by minimising the MSD. In addition, experimental results show that the proposed algorithm is achieved better performance than the other algorithms.

Keywords: adaptive filter, affine projection algorithm, variable step size.

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Authors: U. Şendurur, B. Nazlıoğlu

Abstract:

Using Turkish data, in this study it is investigated that whether a firm’s ownership structure has an impact on its stock prices after the crisis. A linear regression model is conducted on the data of non-financial firms that are trading in Istanbul Stock Exchange 100 Index (ISE 100) index. The findings show that, all explanatory variables such as inside ownership, largest ownership, concentrated ownership, foreign shareholders, family controlled and dispersed ownership are not very important to explain stock prices after the crisis. Family controlled firms and concentrated ownership is positively related to stock price, dispersed ownership, largest ownership, foreign shareholders, and inside ownership structures have negative interaction between stock prices, but because of the p value is not under the value of 0.05 this relation is not significant. In addition, the analysis shows that, the shares of firms that have inside, largest and dispersed ownership structure are outperform comparing with the other firms. Furthermore, ownership concentrated firms outperform to family controlled firms.

Keywords: Financial crisis, ISE 100 Index, Ownership structure, Stock price.

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Authors: Fuziyah Ishak, Mohamed B. Suleiman, Zanariah A. Majid, Khairil I. Othman

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This paper considers the development of a two-point predictor-corrector block method for solving delay differential equations. The formulae are represented in divided difference form and the algorithm is implemented in variable stepsize variable order technique. The block method produces two new values at a single integration step. Numerical results are compared with existing methods and it is evident that the block method performs very well. Stability regions of the block method are also investigated.

Keywords: block method, delay differential equations, predictor-corrector, stability region, variable stepsize variable order.

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Authors: Trung-Kien Pham, Yoonsu Nam, Hyungun Kim, Jaehoon Son

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This paper addresses linear quadratic regulation (LQR) for variable speed variable pitch wind turbines. Because of the inherent nonlinearity of wind turbine, a set of operating conditions is identified and then a LQR controller is designed for each operating point. The feedback controller gains are then interpolated linearly to get control law for the entire operating region. Besides, the aerodynamic torque and effective wind speed are estimated online to get the gain-scheduling variable for implementing the controller. The potential of the method is verified through simulation with the help of MATLAB/Simulink and GH Bladed. The performance and mechanical load when using LQR are also compared with that when using PI controller.

Keywords: variable speed variable pitch wind turbine, multi-MW size wind turbine, wind energy conversion system, LQR control.

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Authors: Liu Zhiyuan, Sun Zongdi, Liu Zhiyuan, Sun Zongdi

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Qingdao is a seaside city. Taking into account the characteristics of Qingdao, this article established a multiple linear regression model to analyze the impact of macroeconomic factors on housing prices. We used stepwise regression method to make multiple linear regression analysis, and made statistical analysis of F test values and T test values. According to the analysis results, the model is continuously optimized. Finally, this article obtained the multiple linear regression equation and the influencing factors, and the reliability of the model was verified by F test and T test.

Keywords: Housing prices, multiple linear regression model, macroeconomic factors, Qingdao City.

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Authors: P.W. C. Prasad, A. Assi, A. Harb, V.C. Prasad

Abstract:

This paper presents an improved variable ordering method to obtain the minimum number of nodes in Reduced Ordered Binary Decision Diagrams (ROBDD). The proposed method uses the graph topology to find the best variable ordering. Therefore the input Boolean function is converted to a unidirectional graph. Three levels of graph parameters are used to increase the probability of having a good variable ordering. The initial level uses the total number of nodes (NN) in all the paths, the total number of paths (NP) and the maximum number of nodes among all paths (MNNAP). The second and third levels use two extra parameters: The shortest path among two variables (SP) and the sum of shortest path from one variable to all the other variables (SSP). A permutation of the graph parameters is performed at each level for each variable order and the number of nodes is recorded. Experimental results are promising; the proposed method is found to be more effective in finding the variable ordering for the majority of benchmark circuits.

Keywords: Binary decision diagrams, graph representation, Boolean functions representation, variable ordering.

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Authors: Ewa. M. Sztendur, Neil T. Diamond

Abstract:

Random Forests are a powerful classification technique, consisting of a collection of decision trees. One useful feature of Random Forests is the ability to determine the importance of each variable in predicting the outcome. This is done by permuting each variable and computing the change in prediction accuracy before and after the permutation. This variable importance calculation is similar to a one-factor-at a time experiment and therefore is inefficient. In this paper, we use a regular fractional factorial design to determine which variables to permute. Based on the results of the trials in the experiment, we calculate the individual importance of the variables, with improved precision over the standard method. The method is illustrated with a study of student attrition at Monash University.

Keywords: Random Forests, Variable Importance, Fractional Factorial Designs, Student Attrition.

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Authors: Yasunori Sugita, Toshinori Yoshikawa, Naoyuki Aikawa

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Variable digital filters are useful for various signal processing and communication applications where the frequency characteristics, such as fractional delays and cutoff frequencies, can be varied. In this paper, we propose a design method of variable FIR digital filters with an approximate linear phase characteristic in the passband. The proposed variable FIR filters have some large attenuation in stopband and their large attenuation can be varied by spectrum parameters. In the proposed design method, a quasi-equiripple characteristic can be obtained by using an iterative weighted least square method. The usefulness of the proposed design method is verified through some examples.

Keywords: Weighted Least Squares Approximation, Variable FIR Filters, Low-Delay, Quasi-Equiripple

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Authors: Ashish Saini, A.K. Saxena

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In competitive electricity markets all over the world, an adoption of suitable transmission pricing model is a problem as transmission segment still operates as a monopoly. Transmission pricing is an important tool to promote investment for various transmission services in order to provide economic, secure and reliable electricity to bulk and retail customers. The nodal pricing based on SRMC (Short Run Marginal Cost) is found extremely useful by researchers for sending correct economic signals. The marginal prices must be determined as a part of solution to optimization problem i.e. to maximize the social welfare. The need to maximize the social welfare subject to number of system operational constraints is a major challenge from computation and societal point of views. The purpose of this paper is to present a nodal transmission pricing model based on SRMC by developing new mathematical expressions of real and reactive power marginal prices using GA-Fuzzy based optimal power flow framework. The impacts of selecting different social welfare functions on power marginal prices are analyzed and verified with results reported in literature. Network revenues for two different power systems are determined using expressions derived for real and reactive power marginal prices in this paper.

Keywords: Deregulation, electricity markets, nodal pricing, social welfare function, short run marginal cost.

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Authors: Amer Ibrahim Falah Al-Omari

Abstract:

In this paper, we suggest new product-type estimators for the population mean of the variable of interest exploiting the first or the third quartile of the auxiliary variable. We obtain mean square error equations and the bias for the estimators. We study the properties of these estimators using simple random sampling (SRS) and ranked set sampling (RSS) methods. It is found that, SRS and RSS produce approximately unbiased estimators of the population mean. However, the RSS estimators are more efficient than those obtained using SRS based on the same number of measured units for all values of the correlation coefficient.

Keywords: Product estimator, auxiliary variable, simple random sampling, extreme ranked set sampling

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Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

Abstract:

Electricity markets throughout the world have undergone substantial changes. Accurate, reliable, clear and comprehensible modeling and forecasting of different variables (loads and prices in the first instance) have achieved increasing importance. In this paper, we describe the actual state of the art focusing on reg-SARMA methods, which have proven to be flexible enough to accommodate the electricity price/load behavior satisfactory. More specifically, we will discuss: 1) The dichotomy between point and interval forecasts; 2) The difficult choice between stochastic (e.g. climatic variation) and non-deterministic predictors (e.g. calendar variables); 3) The confrontation between modelling a single aggregate time series or creating separated and potentially different models of sub-series. The noteworthy point that we would like to make it emerge is that prices and loads require different approaches that appear irreconcilable even though must be made reconcilable for the interests and activities of energy companies.

Keywords: Forecasting problem, interval forecasts, time series, electricity prices, reg-plus-SARMA methods.

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Authors: S. A. Alotaibi, M. A. Al-Ajmi

Abstract:

This work introduces a new concept for controlling the mechanical vibrations via variable stiffness coil spring. The concept relies on fitting a screw though the spring to change the number of active spring coils. A prototype has been built and tested with promising results toward an innovation in the field of vibration control.

Keywords: Variable stiffness, coil spring, vibration control.

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Authors: Yong-Jun Kim, Jae-Hyun Ro, Chang-Bin Ha, Hyoung-Kyu Song

Abstract:

Because current wireless communication requires high reliability in a limited bandwidth environment, this paper proposes the variable modulation scheme based on the codebook. The variable modulation scheme adjusts transmission power using the codebook in accordance with channel state. Also, if the codebook is composed of many bits, the reliability is more improved by the proposed scheme. The simulation results show that the performance of proposed scheme has better reliability than the the performance of conventional scheme.

Keywords: MIMO-OFDM, variable modulation, codebook, channel state.

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