Search results for: time series classification

Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, S. M. Aqil Burney, C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper, we have presented a new multivariate fuzzy time series forecasting method. This method assumes mfactors with one main factor of interest. History of past three years is used for making new forecasts. This new method is applied in forecasting total number of car accidents in Belgium using four secondary factors. We also make comparison of our proposed method with existing methods of fuzzy time series forecasting. Experimentally, it is shown that our proposed method perform better than existing fuzzy time series forecasting methods. Practically, actuaries are interested in analysis of the patterns of causalities in road accidents. Thus using fuzzy time series, actuaries can define fuzzy premium and fuzzy underwriting of car insurance and life insurance for car insurance. National Institute of Statistics, Belgium provides region of risk classification for each road. Thus using this risk classification, we can predict premium rate and underwriting of insurance policy holders.

Keywords: Average forecasting error rate (AFER), Fuzziness offuzzy sets Fuzzy, If-Then rules, Multivariate fuzzy time series.

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Authors: Samir Brahim Belhaouari

Abstract:

By taking advantage of both k-NN which is highly accurate and K-means cluster which is able to reduce the time of classification, we can introduce Cluster-k-Nearest Neighbor as "variable k"-NN dealing with the centroid or mean point of all subclasses generated by clustering algorithm. In general the algorithm of K-means cluster is not stable, in term of accuracy, for that reason we develop another algorithm for clustering our space which gives a higher accuracy than K-means cluster, less subclass number, stability and bounded time of classification with respect to the variable data size. We find between 96% and 99.7 % of accuracy in the lassification of 6 different types of Time series by using K-means cluster algorithm and we find 99.7% by using the new clustering algorithm.

Keywords: Pattern recognition, Time series, k-Nearest Neighbor, k-means cluster, Gaussian Mixture Model, Classification

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Authors: Jia Xin Low, Keng Wah Choo

Abstract:

This paper presents an automatic normal and abnormal heart sound classification model developed based on deep learning algorithm. MITHSDB heart sounds datasets obtained from the 2016 PhysioNet/Computing in Cardiology Challenge database were used in this research with the assumption that the electrocardiograms (ECG) were recorded simultaneously with the heart sounds (phonocardiogram, PCG). The PCG time series are segmented per heart beat, and each sub-segment is converted to form a square intensity matrix, and classified using convolutional neural network (CNN) models. This approach removes the need to provide classification features for the supervised machine learning algorithm. Instead, the features are determined automatically through training, from the time series provided. The result proves that the prediction model is able to provide reasonable and comparable classification accuracy despite simple implementation. This approach can be used for real-time classification of heart sounds in Internet of Medical Things (IoMT), e.g. remote monitoring applications of PCG signal.

Keywords: Convolutional neural network, discrete wavelet transform, deep learning, heart sound classification.

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Authors: A. S. Adesuyi, Z. Munch

Abstract:

This study investigates the use of a time-series of MODIS NDVI data to identify agricultural land cover change on an annual time step (2007 - 2012) and characterize the trend. Following an ISODATA classification of the MODIS imagery to selectively mask areas not agriculture or semi-natural, NDVI signatures were created to identify areas cereals and vineyards with the aid of ancillary, pictometry and field sample data for 2010. The NDVI signature curve and training samples were used to create a decision tree model in WEKA 3.6.9 using decision tree classifier (J48) algorithm; Model 1 including ISODATA classification and Model 2 not. These two models were then used to classify all data for the study area for 2010, producing land cover maps with classification accuracies of 77% and 80% for Model 1 and 2 respectively. Model 2 was subsequently used to create land cover classification and change detection maps for all other years. Subtle changes and areas of consistency (unchanged) were observed in the agricultural classes and crop practices. Over the years as predicted by the land cover classification. Forty one percent of the catchment comprised of cereals with 35% possibly following a crop rotation system. Vineyards largely remained constant with only one percent conversion to vineyard from other land cover classes.

Keywords: Change detection, Land cover, NDVI, time-series.

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Authors: Neila Mezghani, Philippe Phan, Hubert Labelle, Carl Eric Aubin, Jacques de Guise

Abstract:

The identification and classification of the spine deformity play an important role when considering surgical planning for adolescent patients with idiopathic scoliosis. The subject of this article is the Lenke classification of scoliotic spines using Cobb angle measurements. The purpose is two-fold: (1) design a rulebased diagram to assist clinicians in the classification process and (2) investigate a computer classifier which improves the classification time and accuracy. The rule-based diagram efficiency was evaluated in a series of scoliotic classifications by 10 clinicians. The computer classifier was tested on a radiographic measurement database of 603 patients. Classification accuracy was 93% using the rule-based diagram and 99% for the computer classifier. Both the computer classifier and the rule based diagram can efficiently assist clinicians in their Lenke classification of spine scoliosis.

Keywords: Scoliosis, Lenke model, decision-rules, computer aided classifier.

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Authors: Monika Chuchro, Maciej Dwornik

Abstract:

The extraction of meaningful information from image could be an alternative method for time series analysis. In this paper, we propose a graphical analysis of time series grouped into table with adjusted colour scale for numerical values. The advantages of this method are also discussed. The proposed method is easy to understand and is flexible to implement the standard methods of pattern recognition and verification, especially for noisy environmental data.

Keywords: graphical analysis, time series, seasonality, noisy environmental data

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Authors: Farhad Asadi, Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi

Abstract:

In this paper, Bayesian online inference in models of data series are constructed by change-points algorithm, which separated the observed time series into independent series and study the change and variation of the regime of the data with related statistical characteristics. variation of statistical characteristics of time series data often represent separated phenomena in the some dynamical system, like a change in state of brain dynamical reflected in EEG signal data measurement or a change in important regime of data in many dynamical system. In this paper, prediction algorithm for studying change point location in some time series data is simulated. It is verified that pattern of proposed distribution of data has important factor on simpler and smother fluctuation of hazard rate parameter and also for better identification of change point locations. Finally, the conditions of how the time series distribution effect on factors in this approach are explained and validated with different time series databases for some dynamical system.

Keywords: Time series, fluctuation in statistical characteristics, optimal learning.

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Authors: M. H. Fattahi, H. Jahangiri

Abstract:

All the geophysical phenomena including river networks and flow time series are fractal events inherently and fractal patterns can be investigated through their behaviors. A non-linear system like a river basin can well be analyzed by a non-linear measure such as the fractal analysis. A bilateral study is held on the fractal properties of the river network and the river flow time series. A moving window technique is utilized to scan the fractal properties of them. Results depict both events follow the same strategy regarding to the fractal properties. Both the river network and the time series fractal dimension tend to saturate in a distinct value.

Keywords: river flow time series, fractal, river networks

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Authors: C. Slim

Abstract:

Traditional techniques for analyzing time series are based on the notion of stationarity of phenomena under study, but in reality most economic and financial series do not verify this hypothesis, which implies the implementation of specific tools for the detection of such behavior. In this paper, we study nonstationary non-seasonal time series tests in a non-exhaustive manner. We formalize the problem of nonstationary processes with numerical simulations and take stock of their statistical characteristics. The theoretical aspects of some of the most common unit root tests will be discussed. We detail the specification of the tests, showing the advantages and disadvantages of each. The empirical study focuses on the application of these tests to the exchange rate (USD/TND) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Tunisia, in order to compare the Power of these tests with the characteristics of the series.

Keywords: Stationarity, unit root tests, economic time series.

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Authors: Melike Şah, Konstantin Y.Degtiarev

Abstract:

This paper proposes a novel improvement of forecasting approach based on using time-invariant fuzzy time series. In contrast to traditional forecasting methods, fuzzy time series can be also applied to problems, in which historical data are linguistic values. It is shown that proposed time-invariant method improves the performance of forecasting process. Further, the effect of using different number of fuzzy sets is tested as well. As with the most of cited papers, historical enrollment of the University of Alabama is used in this study to illustrate the forecasting process. Subsequently, the performance of the proposed method is compared with existing fuzzy time series time-invariant models based on forecasting accuracy. It reveals a certain performance superiority of the proposed method over methods described in the literature.

Keywords: Forecasting, fuzzy time series, linguistic values, student enrollment, time-invariant model.

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Authors: Pushkar Tripathi, Abhishek Sharma, G. N. Pillai, Indira Gupta

Abstract:

This paper presents a new approach for the protection of Thyristor-Controlled Series Compensator (TCSC) line using Support Vector Machine (SVM). One SVM is trained for fault classification and another for section identification. This method use three phase current measurement that results in better speed and accuracy than other SVM based methods which used single phase current measurement. This makes it suitable for real-time protection. The method was tested on 10,000 data instances with a very wide variation in system conditions such as compensation level, source impedance, location of fault, fault inception angle, load angle at source bus and fault resistance. The proposed method requires only local current measurement.

Keywords: Fault Classification, Section Identification, Feature Selection, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Thyristor-Controlled Series Compensator (TCSC)

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Authors: V. I. Thajudin Ahamed, P. Dhanasekaran, Paul Joseph K.

Abstract:

Analysis of heart rate variability (HRV) has become a popular non-invasive tool for assessing the activities of autonomic nervous system. Most of the methods were hired from techniques used for time series analysis. Currently used methods are time domain, frequency domain, geometrical and fractal methods. A new technique, which searches for pattern repeatability in a time series, is proposed for quantifying heart rate (HR) time series. These set of indices, which are termed as pattern repeatability measure and pattern repeatability ratio are able to distinguish HR data clearly from noise and electroencephalogram (EEG). The results of analysis using these measures give an insight into the fundamental difference between the composition of HR time series with respect to EEG and noise.

Keywords: Approximate entropy, heart rate variability, noise, pattern repeatability, and sample entropy.

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Authors: Theodor D. Popescu

Abstract:

The paper presents a method for multivariate time series forecasting using Independent Component Analysis (ICA), as a preprocessing tool. The idea of this approach is to do the forecasting in the space of independent components (sources), and then to transform back the results to the original time series space. The forecasting can be done separately and with a different method for each component, depending on its time structure. The paper gives also a review of the main algorithms for independent component analysis in the case of instantaneous mixture models, using second and high-order statistics. The method has been applied in simulation to an artificial multivariate time series with five components, generated from three sources and a mixing matrix, randomly generated.

Keywords: Independent Component Analysis, second order statistics, simulation, time series forecasting

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Authors: Tahseen Ahmed Jilani, Syed Muhammad Aqil Burney, C. Ardil

Abstract:

In the last 15 years, a number of methods have been proposed for forecasting based on fuzzy time series. Most of the fuzzy time series methods are presented for forecasting of enrollments at the University of Alabama. However, the forecasting accuracy rates of the existing methods are not good enough. In this paper, we compared our proposed new method of fuzzy time series forecasting with existing methods. Our method is based on frequency density based partitioning of the historical enrollment data. The proposed method belongs to the kth order and time-variant methods. The proposed method can get the best forecasting accuracy rate for forecasting enrollments than the existing methods.

Keywords: Fuzzy logical groups, fuzzified enrollments, fuzzysets, fuzzy time series.

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Authors: Mohammad H. Fattahi

Abstract:

Chaotic analysis has been performed on the river flow time series before and after applying the wavelet based de-noising techniques in order to investigate the noise content effects on chaotic nature of flow series. In this study, 38 years of monthly runoff data of three gauging stations were used. Gauging stations were located in Ghar-e-Aghaj river basin, Fars province, Iran. Noise level of time series was estimated with the aid of Gaussian kernel algorithm. This step was found to be crucial in preventing removal of the vital data such as memory, correlation and trend from the time series in addition to the noise during de-noising process.

Keywords: Chaotic behavior, wavelet, noise reduction, river flow.

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Authors: Monika Chuchro

Abstract:

This paper presents a preliminary attempt to apply classification of time series using meta-clusters in order to improve the quality of regression models. In this case, clustering was performed as a method to obtain subgroups of time series data with normal distribution from the inflow into wastewater treatment plant data, composed of several groups differing by mean value. Two simple algorithms, K-mean and EM, were chosen as a clustering method. The Rand index was used to measure the similarity. After simple meta-clustering, a regression model was performed for each subgroups. The final model was a sum of the subgroups models. The quality of the obtained model was compared with the regression model made using the same explanatory variables, but with no clustering of data. Results were compared using determination coefficient (R2), measure of prediction accuracy- mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and comparison on a linear chart. Preliminary results allow us to foresee the potential of the presented technique.

Keywords: Clustering, Data analysis, Data mining, Predictive models.

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Authors: Chunshien Li, Jhao-Wun Hu, Tai-Wei Chiang, Tsunghan Wu

Abstract:

Time series forecasting is an important and widely popular topic in the research of system modeling. This paper describes how to use the hybrid PSO-RLSE neuro-fuzzy learning approach to the problem of time series forecasting. The PSO algorithm is used to update the premise parameters of the proposed prediction system, and the RLSE is used to update the consequence parameters. Thanks to the hybrid learning (HL) approach for the neuro-fuzzy system, the prediction performance is excellent and the speed of learning convergence is much faster than other compared approaches. In the experiments, we use the well-known Mackey-Glass chaos time series. According to the experimental results, the prediction performance and accuracy in time series forecasting by the proposed approach is much better than other compared approaches, as shown in Table IV. Excellent prediction performance by the proposed approach has been observed.

Keywords: forecasting, hybrid learning (HL), Neuro-FuzzySystem (NFS), particle swarm optimization (PSO), recursiveleast-squares estimator (RLSE), time series

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Authors: B.P. Bezruchko, D.A. Smirnov

Abstract:

Quantitative characterization of nonlinear directional couplings between stochastic oscillators from data is considered. We suggest coupling characteristics readily interpreted from a physical viewpoint and their estimators. An expression for a statistical significance level is derived analytically that allows reliable coupling detection from a relatively short time series. Performance of the technique is demonstrated in numerical experiments.

Keywords: Nonlinear time series analysis, directional couplings, coupled oscillators.

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Authors: Moohyun Lee, Soojung Hur, Yongwan Park

Abstract:

We propose obstacle classification method based on 2D LIDAR Database. The existing obstacle classification method based on 2D LIDAR, has an advantage in terms of accuracy and shorter calculation time. However, it was difficult to classifier the type of obstacle and therefore accurate path planning was not possible. In order to overcome this problem, a method of classifying obstacle type based on width data of obstacle was proposed. However, width data was not sufficient to improve accuracy. In this paper, database was established by width and intensity data; the first classification was processed by the width data; the second classification was processed by the intensity data; classification was processed by comparing to database; result of obstacle classification was determined by finding the one with highest similarity values. An experiment using an actual autonomous vehicle under real environment shows that calculation time declined in comparison to 3D LIDAR and it was possible to classify obstacle using single 2D LIDAR.

Keywords: Obstacle, Classification, LIDAR, Segmentation, Width, Intensity, Database.

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Authors: Shigeaki Sakurai, Ken Ueno, Ryohei Orihara

Abstract:

This paper proposes a method that discovers time series event patterns from textual data with time information. The patterns are composed of sequences of events and each event is extracted from the textual data, where an event is characteristic content included in the textual data such as a company name, an action, and an impression of a customer. The method introduces 7 types of time constraints based on the analysis of the textual data. The method also evaluates these constraints when the frequency of a time series event pattern is calculated. We can flexibly define the time constraints for interesting combinations of events and can discover valid time series event patterns which satisfy these conditions. The paper applies the method to daily business reports collected by a sales force automation system and verifies its effectiveness through numerical experiments.

Keywords: Text mining, sequential mining, time constraints, daily business reports.

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Authors: Wen-Chi Liu

Abstract:

This study applies the sequential panel selection method (SPSM) procedure proposed by Chortareas and Kapetanios (2009) to investigate the time-series properties of energy consumption in 50 US states from 1963 to 2009. SPSM involves the classification of the entire panel into a group of stationary series and a group of non-stationary series to identify how many and which series in the panel are stationary processes. Empirical results obtained through SPSM with the panel KSS unit root test developed by Ucar and Omay (2009) combined with a Fourier function indicate that energy consumption in all the 50 US states are stationary. The results of this study have important policy implications for the 50 US states.

Keywords: Energy Consumption, Panel Unit Root, Sequential Panel Selection Method, Fourier Function, US states.

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Authors: Fahd Sabry Esmail, M. Badr Senousy, Mohamed Ragaie

Abstract:

In recent years, there has been an explosion in the rate of using technology that help discovering the diseases. For example, DNA microarrays allow us for the first time to obtain a "global" view of the cell. It has great potential to provide accurate medical diagnosis, to help in finding the right treatment and cure for many diseases. Various classification algorithms can be applied on such micro-array datasets to devise methods that can predict the occurrence of Leukemia disease. In this study, we compared the classification accuracy and response time among eleven decision tree methods and six rule classifier methods using five performance criteria. The experiment results show that the performance of Random Tree is producing better result. Also it takes lowest time to build model in tree classifier. The classification rules algorithms such as nearest- neighbor-like algorithm (NNge) is the best algorithm due to the high accuracy and it takes lowest time to build model in classification.

Keywords: Data mining, classification techniques, decision tree, classification rule, leukemia diseases, microarray data.

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Authors: S. V. Yendiyarov

Abstract:

Pattern discovery from time series is of fundamental importance. Particularly, when information about the structure of a pattern is not complete, an algorithm to discover specific patterns or shapes automatically from the time series data is necessary. The dynamic time warping is a technique that allows local flexibility in aligning time series. Because of this, it is widely used in many fields such as science, medicine, industry, finance and others. However, a major problem of the dynamic time warping is that it is not able to work with structural changes of a pattern. This problem arises when the structure is influenced by noise, which is a common thing in practice for almost every application. This paper addresses this problem by means of developing a novel technique called adaptive dynamic time warping.

Keywords: Pattern recognition, optimal control, quadratic programming, dynamic programming, dynamic time warping, sintering control.

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Authors: Mohamed E. Salem Abozaed

Abstract:

Detection and classification of power quality (PQ) disturbances is an important consideration to electrical utilities and many industrial customers so that diagnosis and mitigation of such disturbance can be implemented quickly. S-transform algorithm and continuous wavelet transforms (CWT) are time-frequency algorithms, and both of them are powerful in detection and classification of PQ disturbances. This paper presents detection and classification of PQ disturbances using S-transform and CWT algorithms. The results of detection and classification, provides that S-transform is more accurate in detection and classification for most PQ disturbance than CWT algorithm, where as CWT algorithm more powerful in detection in some disturbances like notching

Keywords: CWT, Disturbances classification, Disturbances detection, Power quality, S-transform.

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Authors: João Paulo Teixeira, Paula Odete Fernandes

Abstract:

The authors have been developing several models based on artificial neural networks, linear regression models, Box- Jenkins methodology and ARIMA models to predict the time series of tourism. The time series consist in the “Monthly Number of Guest Nights in the Hotels" of one region. Several comparisons between the different type models have been experimented as well as the features used at the entrance of the models. The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models have always had their performance at the top of the best models. Usually the feed-forward architecture was used due to their huge application and results. In this paper the author made a comparison between different architectures of the ANNs using simply the same input. Therefore, the traditional feed-forward architecture, the cascade forwards, a recurrent Elman architecture and a radial based architecture were discussed and compared based on the task of predicting the mentioned time series.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network Architectures, time series forecast, tourism.

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Authors: Shumin Hou, Yourong Li, Sanxing Zhao

Abstract:

Much time series data is generally from continuous dynamic system. Firstly, this paper studies the detection of the nonlinearity of time series from continuous dynamics systems by applying the Phase-randomized surrogate algorithm. Then, the Delay Vector Variance (DVV) method is introduced into nonlinearity test. The results show that under the different sampling conditions, the opposite detection of nonlinearity is obtained via using traditional test statistics methods, which include the third-order autocovariance and the asymmetry due to time reversal. Whereas the DVV method can perform well on determining nonlinear of Lorenz signal. It indicates that the proposed method can describe the continuous dynamics signal effectively.

Keywords: Nonlinearity, Time series, continuous dynamics system, DVV method

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Authors: Nicholas Milburn, Yu Liang, Dalei Wu

Abstract:

Athlete performance scoring within the climbing domain presents interesting challenges as the sport does not have an objective way to assign skill. Assessing skill levels within any sport is valuable as it can be used to mark progress while training, and it can help an athlete choose appropriate climbs to attempt. Machine learning-based methods are popular for complex problems like this. The dataset available was composed of dynamic force data recorded during climbing; however, this dataset came with challenges such as data scarcity, imbalance, and it was temporally heterogeneous. Investigated solutions to these challenges include data augmentation, temporal normalization, conversion of time series to the spectral domain, and cross validation strategies. The investigated solutions to the classification problem included light weight machine classifiers KNN and SVM as well as the deep learning with CNN. The best performing model had an 80% accuracy. In conclusion, there seems to be enough information within climbing force data to accurately categorize climbers by skill.

Keywords: Classification, climbing, data imbalance, data scarcity, machine learning, time sequence.

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Authors: B. Q. Huang, Tarik Rashid, M-T. Kechadi

Abstract:

this paper presents a multi-context recurrent network for time series analysis. While simple recurrent network (SRN) are very popular among recurrent neural networks, they still have some shortcomings in terms of learning speed and accuracy that need to be addressed. To solve these problems, we proposed a multi-context recurrent network (MCRN) with three different learning algorithms. The performance of this network is evaluated on some real-world application such as handwriting recognition and energy load forecasting. We study the performance of this network and we compared it to a very well established SRN. The experimental results showed that MCRN is very efficient and very well suited to time series analysis and its applications.

Keywords: Gradient descent method, recurrent neural network, learning algorithms, time series, BP

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Authors: Asar Khan, Peter D. Widdop, Andrew J. Day, Aliaster S. Wood, Steve, R. Mounce, John Machell

Abstract:

This paper describes an automated event detection and location system for water distribution pipelines which is based upon low-cost sensor technology and signature analysis by an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The development of a low cost failure sensor which measures the opacity or cloudiness of the local water flow has been designed, developed and validated, and an ANN based system is then described which uses time series data produced by sensors to construct an empirical model for time series prediction and classification of events. These two components have been installed, tested and verified in an experimental site in a UK water distribution system. Verification of the system has been achieved from a series of simulated burst trials which have provided real data sets. It is concluded that the system has potential in water distribution network management.

Keywords: Detection, leakage, neural networks, sensors, water distribution networks

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Authors: Sejong Oh

Abstract:

Classification is an important topic in machine learning and bioinformatics. Many datasets have been introduced for classification tasks. A dataset contains multiple features, and the quality of features influences the classification accuracy of the dataset. The power of classification for each feature differs. In this study, we suggest the Classification Influence Index (CII) as an indicator of classification power for each feature. CII enables evaluation of the features in a dataset and improved classification accuracy by transformation of the dataset. By conducting experiments using CII and the k-nearest neighbor classifier to analyze real datasets, we confirmed that the proposed index provided meaningful improvement of the classification accuracy.

Keywords: accuracy, classification, dataset, data preprocessing

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