Search results for: systematic risk

Authors: Mojtaba Rezaei, Elham Heydari

Abstract:

This paper highlights the empirical results of analyzing the correlation between accounting information and systematic risk. This association is analyzed among financial ratios and systematic risk by considering the financial statement of 39 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) for five years (2014-2018). Financial ratios have been categorized into four groups and to describe the special features, as representative of accounting information we selected: Return on Asset (ROA), Debt Ratio (Total Debt to Total Asset), Current Ratio (current assets to current debt), Asset Turnover (Net sales to Total assets), and Total Assets. The hypotheses were tested through simple and multiple linear regression and T-student test. The findings illustrate that there is no significant relationship between accounting information and market risk. This indicates that in the selected sample, historical accounting information does not fully reflect the price of stocks.

Keywords: Accounting information, market risk, systematic risk, efficient market hypothesis, EMH, Tehran Stock Exchange, TSE.

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Authors: Olaniyi O. Omoyajowo

Abstract:

To be successful in today’s competitive global environment, manufacturing industry must be able to respond quickly to changes in technology. These changes in technology introduce new risks and hazards. The management of risk/hazard in a manufacturing process recommends method through which the success rate of an organization can be increased. Thus, there is a continual need for manufacturing industries to invest significant amount of resources in risk management, which in turn optimizes the production output and profitability of any manufacturing industry (if implemented properly). To help improve the existing risk prevention and mitigation practices in Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) in Nigeria Manufacturing Industries (NMI), the researcher embarks on this research to develop a systematic Risk Management process.

Keywords: Manufacturing industries, production output, risk, risk management, SMEs.

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Authors: Niklas Echterhoff, Benjamin Amshoff, Jürgen Gausemeier

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Due to today-s fierce competition, companies have to be proactive creators of the future by effectively developing innovations. Especially radical innovations allow high profit margins – but they also entail high risks. One possibility to realize radical innovations and reduce the risk of failure is cross-industry innovation (CII). CII brings together problems and solution ideas from different industries. However, there is a lack of systematic ways towards CII. Bridging this gap, the present paper provides a systematic approach towards planned CII. Starting with the analysis of potentials, the definition of promising search strategies is crucial. Subsequently, identified solution ideas need to be assessed. For the most promising ones, the adaption process has to be systematically planned – regarding the risk affinity of a company. The introduced method is explained on a project from the furniture industry.

Keywords: Analogy building, cross-industry innovations, knowledge transfer, solution adaption.

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Authors: Martina Kanciruk, Jac W. Andrews, Tyrone Donnon

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to determine the significance of history of obesity for the development of childhood overweight and/or obesity. Accordingly, a systematic literature review of English-language studies published from 1980 to 2012 using the following data bases: MEDLINE, PsychINFO, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Dissertation Abstracts International was conducted. The following terms were used in the search: pregnancy, overweight, obesity, family history, parents, childhood, risk factors. Eleven studies of family history and obesity conducted in Europe, Asia, North America, and South America met the inclusion criteria. A meta-analysis of these studies indicated that family history of obesity is a significant risk factor of overweight and /or obesity in offspring; risk for offspring overweight and/or obesity associated with family history varies depending of the family members included in the analysis; and when family history of obesity is present, the offspring are at greater risk for developing obesity or overweight. In addition, the results from moderator analyses suggest that part of the heterogeneity discovered between the studies can be explained by the region of world that the study occurred in and the age of the child at the time of weight assessment.

Keywords: Childhood obesity, overweight, family history, risk factors, meta-analysis.

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Authors: Ioan Popa, Radu Lupu, Cristiana Tudor

Abstract:

In this paper, we apply the FM methodology to the cross-section of Romanian-listed common stocks and investigate the explanatory power of market beta on the cross-section of commons stock returns from Bucharest Stock Exchange. Various assumptions are empirically tested, such us linearity, market efficiency, the “no systematic effect of non-beta risk" hypothesis or the positive expected risk-return trade-off hypothesis. We find that the Romanian stock market shows the same properties as the other emerging markets in terms of efficiency and significance of the linear riskreturn models. Our analysis included weekly returns from January 2002 until May 2010 and the portfolio formation, estimation and testing was performed in a rolling manner using 51 observations (one year) for each stage of the analysis.

Keywords: Bucharest Stock Exchange, Fama-Macbeth methodology, systematic risk, non-linear risk-return dependence.

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Authors: Martina Kanciruk, Jac W. Andrews, Tyrone Donnon

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to determine the significance of maternal smoking for the development of childhood overweight and/or obesity. Accordingly, a systematic literature review of English-language studies published from 1980 to 2012 using the following data bases: MEDLINE, PsychINFO, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Dissertation Abstracts International was conducted. The following terms were used in the search: pregnancy, overweight, obesity, smoking, parents, childhood, risk factors. Eighteen studies of maternal smoking during pregnancy and obesity conducted in Europe, Asia, North America, and South America met the inclusion criteria. A meta-analysis of these studies indicated that maternal smoking during pregnancy is a significant risk factor for overweight and obesity; mothers who smoke during pregnancy are at a greater risk for developing obesity or overweight; the quantity of cigarettes consumed by the mother during pregnancy influenced the odds of offspring overweight and/or obesity. In addition, the results from moderator analyses suggest that part of the heterogeneity discovered between the studies can be explained by the region of world that the study occurred in and the age of the child at the time of weight assessment.

Keywords: Childhood obesity, overweight, smoking, parents, risk factors.

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Authors: Muhammad Jamaluddin Thaheem, Alberto De Marco

Abstract:

The area of Project Risk Management (PRM) has been extensively researched, and the utilization of various tools and techniques for managing risk in several industries has been sufficiently reported. Formal and systematic PRM practices have been made available for the construction industry. Based on such body of knowledge, this paper tries to find out the global picture of PRM practices and approaches with the help of a survey to look into the usage of PRM techniques and diffusion of software tools, their level of maturity, and their usefulness in the construction sector. Results show that, despite existing techniques and tools, their usage is limited: software tools are used only by a minority of respondents and their cost is one of the largest hurdles in adoption. Finally, the paper provides some important guidelines for future research regarding quantitative risk analysis techniques and suggestions for PRM software tools development and improvement.

Keywords: Construction industry, Project risk management, Software tools, Survey study.

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Authors: V. Sulakatko, F. U. Vogdt, I. Lill

Abstract:

Construction technology and on-site construction activities have a direct influence on the life cycle costs of energy efficiently renovated apartment buildings. The systematic inadequacies of the External Thermal Insulation Composite System (ETICS) which occur during the construction phase increase the risk for all stakeholders, reduce mechanical durability and increase the life cycle costs of the building. The economic effect of these shortcomings can be minimised if the risk of the most significant on-site activities is recognised. The objective of the presented ETICS economic assessment concept is to evaluate the economic influence of on-site shortcomings and reveal their significance to the foreseeable future repair costs. The model assembles repair techniques, discusses their direct cost calculation methods, argues over the proper usage of net present value over the life cycle of the building, and proposes a simulation tool to evaluate the risk of on-site activities. As the technique is dependent on the selected real interest rate, a sensitivity analysis is anticipated to determine the validity of the recommendations. After the verification of the model on the sample buildings by the industry, it is expected to increase economic rationality of resource allocation and reduce high-risk systematic shortcomings during the construction process of ETICS.

Keywords: Activity-based cost estimating, Cost estimation, ETICS, Life cycle costing.

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Authors: K. Sekulová, M. Šimon

Abstract:

This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

 

Keywords: Ergonomics, musculoskeletal disorders, occupational diseases, risk factors.

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Authors: Loay A. Altamimi

Abstract:

Collaborative technologies or software known as groupware are key enabling tools for communication, collaboration and co-ordination among individuals, work groups and businesses. Available reviews of the groupware literature are very few, and mostly neither systematic nor recent. This paper is an effort to fill this gap, and to provide researchers, with a more up-to-date and wide systematic literature review. For this purpose, 1087 scholarly articles, published from 1990 to 2013, on the topic of groupware, were collected by the literature search. The study here adopted the systematic approach of lexical analysis for the analysis of those articles.

Keywords: Lexical Analysis, Literature review, Groupware, collaborative Software.

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Authors: M. N. Huda, S. Yamada, N. Sonehara

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Probability-based identity disclosure risk measurement may give the same overall risk for different anonymization strategy of the same dataset. Some entities in the anonymous dataset may have higher identification risks than the others. Individuals are more concerned about higher risks than the average and are more interested to know if they have a possibility of being under higher risk. A notation of overall risk in the above measurement method doesn-t indicate whether some of the involved entities have higher identity disclosure risk than the others. In this paper, we have introduced an identity disclosure risk measurement method that not only implies overall risk, but also indicates whether some of the members have higher risk than the others. The proposed method quantifies the overall risk based on the individual risk values, the percentage of the records that have a risk value higher than the average and how larger the higher risk values are compared to the average. We have analyzed the disclosure risks for different disclosure control techniques applied to original microdata and present the results.

Keywords: Anonymization, microdata, disclosure risk, privacy.

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Authors: Chun-guang Pan, Ying-wu Chen

Abstract:

Risk response planning is of importance for software project risk management (SPRM). In CMMI, risk management was in the third capability maturity level, which provides a framework for software project risk identification, assessment, risk planning, risk control. However, the CMMI-based SPRM currently lacks quantitative supporting tools, especially during the process of implementing software project risk planning. In this paper, an economic optimization model for selecting risk reduction actions in the phase of software project risk response planning is presented. Furthermore, an example taken from a Chinese software industry is illustrated to verify the application of this method. The research provides a risk decision method for project risk managers that can be used in the implementation of CMMI-based SPRM.

Keywords: Software project, risk management, CMMI, riskresponse planning.

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Authors: Masood Uzzafer

Abstract:

A dynamic risk management framework for software projects is presented. Currently available software risk management frameworks and risk assessment models are static in nature and lacks feedback capability. Such risk management frameworks are not capable of providing the risk assessment of futuristic changes in risk events. A dynamic risk management framework for software project is needed that provides futuristic assessment of risk events.

Keywords: Software Risk Management, Dynamic Models, Software Project Managment.

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Authors: Hooman Hoodat, Hassan Rashidi

Abstract:

Despite various methods that exist in software risk management, software projects have a high rate of failure. When complexity and size of the projects are increased, managing software development becomes more difficult. In these projects the need for more analysis and risk assessment is vital. In this paper, a classification for software risks is specified. Then relations between these risks using risk tree structure are presented. Analysis and assessment of these risks are done using probabilistic calculations. This analysis helps qualitative and quantitative assessment of risk of failure. Moreover it can help software risk management process. This classification and risk tree structure can apply to some software tools.

Keywords: Risk analysis, risk assessment, risk classification, risk tree.

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Authors: K. Sekulová, M. Šimon

Abstract:

The article demonstrates on a case study how it is possible to identify MSD risk. It is based on a dissertation Risk identification model of occupational diseases formation in relation to the work activity that determines what risk can endanger workers who are exposed to the specific risk factors. It is evaluated based on statistical calculations. These risk factors are main cause of upperextremities musculoskeletal disorders.

Keywords: Case study, upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders, ergonomics.

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Authors: Milan Rippel, Pert Teplý

Abstract:

Operational risk has become one of the most discussed topics in the financial industry in the recent years. The reasons for this attention can be attributed to higher investments in information systems and technology, the increasing wave of mergers and acquisitions and emergence of new financial instruments. In addition, the New Basel Capital Accord (known as Basel II) demands a capital requirement for operational risk and further motivates financial institutions to more precisely measure and manage this type of risk. The aim of this paper is to shed light on main characteristics of operational risk management and common applied methods: scenario analysis, key risk indicators, risk control self assessment and loss distribution approach.

Keywords: Operational risk, economic capital, key risk indicators, loss distribution approach.

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Authors: Juan P. Zamora, Wilson Adarme, Laura Palacios

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This paper shows a traceability framework for supply risk monitoring, beginning with the identification, analysis, and evaluation of the supply chain risk and focusing on the supply operations of the Health Care Institutions with oncology services in Bogota, Colombia. It includes a brief presentation of the state of the art of the Supply Chain Risk Management and traceability systems in logistics operations, and it concludes with the methodology to integrate the SCRM model with the traceability system.

Keywords: Supply risk, risk monitoring, supply chain risk management, cancer drugs, traceability systems.

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Authors: Masood Uzzafer

Abstract:

A dynamic software risk assessment model is presented. Analogies between dynamic financial analysis and software risk assessment models are established and based on these analogies it suggested that dynamic risk model for software projects is the way to move forward for the risk assessment of software project. It is shown how software risk assessment change during different phases of a software project and hence requires a dynamic risk assessment model to capture these variations. Further evolution of dynamic financial analysis models is discussed and mapped to the evolution of software risk assessment models.

Keywords: Software Risk Assessment, Software ProjectManagement, Software Cost, Dynamic Modeling.

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Authors: Emre Alptekin, Damla Yalçınyiğit, Gülfem Alptekin

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In highly competitive environments, a growing number of companies must regularly launch new products speedily and successfully. A company-s success is based on the systematic, conscious product designing method which meets the market requirements and takes risks as well as resources into consideration. Research has found that developing and launching new products are inherently risky endeavors. Hence in this research, we aim at introducing a risk evaluation framework for the new product innovation process. Our framework is based on the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) methodology. We have applied all the stages of the framework on the risk evaluation process of a pharmaceuticals company.

Keywords: Evaluation, risks, product innovation.

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Authors: M. Rahou, A. Cheikh, F. Sebaa

Abstract:

Manufacturing tolerancing is intended to determine the intermediate geometrical and dimensional states of the part during its manufacturing process. These manufacturing dimensions also serve to satisfy not only the functional requirements given in the definition drawing, but also the manufacturing constraints, for example geometrical defects of the machine, vibration and the wear of the cutting tool. In this paper, an experimental study on the influence of the wear of the cutting tool (systematic dispersions) is explored. This study was carried out on three stages .The first stage allows machining without elimination of dispersions (random, systematic) so the tolerances of manufacture according to total dispersions. In the second stage, the results of the first stage are filtered in such way to obtain the tolerances according to random dispersions. Finally, from the two previous stages, the systematic dispersions are generated. The objective of this study is to model by the least squares method the error of manufacture based on systematic dispersion. Finally, an approach of optimization of the manufacturing tolerances was developed for machining on a CNC machine tool

Keywords: Dispersions, Compensation, modeling, manufacturing Tolerance, machine tool.

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Authors: John Mark Lampos, Virgilio Sison

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Two constructions of unit-memory binary convolutional codes from linear block codes over the finite semi-local ring F2r +vF2r , where v2 = v, are presented. In both cases, if the linear block code is systematic, then the resulting convolutional encoder is systematic, minimal, basic and non-catastrophic. The Hamming free distance of the convolutional code is bounded below by the minimum Hamming distance of the block code. New examples of binary convolutional codes that meet the Heller upper bound for systematic codes are given.

Keywords: Convolutional codes, semi-local ring, free distance, Heller bound.

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Authors: Saadia Drissi, Siham Benhadou, Hicham Medromi

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The cloud computing is an innovative paradigm that introduces several changes in technology that have resulted a new ways for cloud providers to deliver their services to cloud consumers mainly in term of security risk assessment, thus, adapting a current risk assessment tools to cloud computing is a very difficult task due to its several characteristics that challenge the effectiveness of risk assessment approaches. As consequence, there is a need of risk assessment model adapted to cloud computing. This paper requires a new risk assessment model based on multi-agent system and AHP model as fundamental steps towards the development of flexible risk assessment approach regarding cloud consumers.

Keywords: Cloud computing, risk assessment model, multi-agent system, AHP model, cloud consumer.

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Authors: Isa Nakhai Kamal Abadi, Esmaeel Saberi, Ehsan Mirjafari

Abstract:

While financial institutions have faced difficulties over the years for a multitude of reasons, the major cause of serious banking problems continues to be directly related to lax credit standards for borrowers and counterparties, poor portfolio risk management, or a lack of attention to changes in economic or other circumstances that can lead to a deterioration in the credit standing of a bank's counterparties. Credit risk is most simply defined as the potential that a bank borrower or counterparty will fail to meet its obligations in accordance with agreed terms. The goal of credit risk management is to maximize a bank's risk-adjusted rate of return by maintaining credit risk exposure within acceptable parameters. Banks need to manage the credit risk inherent in the entire portfolio as well as the risk in individual credits or transactions. Banks should also consider the relationships between credit risk and other risks. The effective management of credit risk is a critical component of a comprehensive approach to risk management and essential to the long-term success of any banking organization. In this research we also study the relationship between credit risk indices and borrower-s timely payback in Karafarin bank.

Keywords: Financial Ratios; Spearman Test; Bank OperationsRisk

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Authors: Jolanta Tamošaitienė

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The article focuses on a developed comprehensive model to be used in an agile environment for the risk assessment and selection based on multi-attribute methods. The model is based on a multi-attribute evaluation of risk in construction, and the determination of their optimality criterion values are calculated using complex Multiple Criteria Decision-Making methods. The model may be further applied to risk assessment in an agile construction environment. The attributes of risk in a construction project are selected by applying the risk assessment condition to the construction sector, and the construction process efficiency in the construction industry accounts for the agile environment. The paper presents the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment. It provides a background and a description of the proposed model and the developed analysis of the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment with the criteria.

Keywords: Assessment, environment, agile, model, risk.

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Authors: Tru C. Le, France Cheong

Abstract:

Although the Vietnamese catfish farming has grown at very high rates in recent years, the industry has also faced many problems affecting its sustainability. This paper studies the perceptions of catfish farmers regarding risk and risk management strategies in their production activities. Specifically, the study aims to measure the consequences, likelihoods, and levels of risks as well as the efficacy of risk management in Vietnamese catfish farming. Data for the study were collected through a sample of 261 catfish farmers in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam using a questionnaire survey in 2008. Results show that, in general, price and production risks were perceived as the most important risks. Farm management and technical measures were perceived more effective than other kinds of risk management strategies in risk reduction. Although price risks were rated as important risks, price risk management strategies were not perceived as important measures for risk mitigation. The results of the study are discussed to provide implications for various industry stakeholders, including policy makers, processors, advisors, and developers of new risk management strategies.

Keywords: Aquaculture, catfish farming, sources of risk, riskmanagement, risk strategies, risk mitigation.

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Authors: Michael Todinov, Eberechi Weli

Abstract:

The paper suggests for the first time the use of dynamic programming techniques for optimal risk reduction in the railway industry. It is shown that by using the concept ‘amount of removed risk by a risk reduction option’, the problem related to optimal allocation of a fixed budget to achieve a maximum risk reduction in the railway industry can be reduced to an optimisation problem from dynamic programming. For n risk reduction options and size of the available risk reduction budget B (expressed as integer number), the worst-case running time of the proposed algorithm is O (n x (B+1)), which makes the proposed method a very efficient tool for solving the optimal risk reduction problem in the railway industry. 

Keywords: Optimisation, railway risk reduction, budget constraints, dynamic programming.

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Authors: Yusuf Garba Baba

Abstract:

The construction industry and housing subsector are fraught with risks that have the potential of negatively impacting on the achievement of project objectives. The success or otherwise of most construction projects depends to large extent on how well these risks have been managed. The recent paradigm shift by the subsector to use of formal risk management approach in contrast to hitherto developed rules of thumb means that risks must not only be identified but also properly assessed and responded to in a systematic manner. The study focused on identifying risks associated with housing development projects and prioritisation assessment of the identified risks in order to provide basis for informed decision. The study used a three-step identification framework: review of literature for similar projects, expert consultation and questionnaire based survey to identify potential risk factors. Delphi survey method was employed in carrying out the relative prioritization assessment of the risks factors using computer-based Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) software. The results show that 19 out of the 50 risks significantly impact on housing development projects. The study concludes that although significant numbers of risk factors have been identified as having relevance and impacting to housing construction projects, economic risk group and, in particular, ‘changes in demand for houses’ is prioritised by most developers as posing a threat to the achievement of their housing development objectives. Unless these risks are carefully managed, their effects will continue to impede success in these projects. The study recommends the adoption and use of the combination of multi-technique identification framework and AHP prioritization assessment methodology as a suitable model for the assessment of risks in housing development projects.

Keywords: Risk identification, risk assessment, analytical hierarchical process, multi-criteria decision.

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Authors: Kristýna Pokorná, Petr Teplý

Abstract:

This paper focuses on sovereign credit risk meaning a hot topic related to the current Eurozone crisis. In the light of the recent financial crisis, market perception of the creditworthiness of individual sovereigns has changed significantly. Before the outbreak of the financial crisis, market participants did not differentiate between credit risk born by individual states despite different levels of public indebtedness. In the proceeding of the financial crisis, the market participants became aware of the worsening fiscal situation in the European countries and started to discriminate among government issuers. Concerns about the increasing sovereign risk were reflected in surging sovereign risk premium. The main of this paper is to shed light on the characteristics of the sovereign risk with the special attention paid to the mutual relation between credit spread and the CDS premium as the main measures of the sovereign risk premium.

Keywords: cointegration, credit default swap, credit risk, credit spread, sovereign risk

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Authors: Ümit Morsünbül

Abstract:

Attachment theory focuses on the bond that develops between child and caretaker and the consequences that this bond has on the childs future relationships. Adolescents attempt to define their identity by experiencing various risky behaviors. The first aim of the study was whether risk taking behavior differs according to attachment styles. The second was to examine risk taking behavior differences according to gender. The third aim of this study was to examine attachment X gender interaction effect for risk taking behavior. And final was to investigate attachment styles differences according to gender. Data were collected from 218 participants (114 female and 104 male) who are university students. The results of this study showed that attachment styles differentiated by risk taking behavior and males had higher risk taking score than females. It was also found out that there was significant attachment X gender interaction effect for risk taking behavior. And finally, the results showed that attachment styles differentiated according to gender.KeywordsAttachment style, risk taking

Keywords: Attachment style, risk taking

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Authors: Sujata Upgupta, Prasoon Kumar Singh

Abstract:

The expansion of large scale coal mining into forest areas is a potential hazard for the local biodiversity and wildlife. The objective of this study is to provide a picture of the threat that coal mining poses to the forests of the East Bokaro landscape. The vulnerable forest areas at risk have been assessed and the priority areas for conservation have been presented. The forested areas at risk in the current scenario have been assessed and compared with the past conditions using classification and buffer based overlay approach. Forest vulnerability has been assessed using an analytical framework based on systematic indicators and composite vulnerability index values. The results indicate that more than 4 km² of forests have been lost from 1973 to 2016. Large patches of forests have been diverted for coal mining projects. Forests in the northern part of the coal field within 1-3 km radius around the coal mines are at immediate risk. The original contiguous forests have been converted into fragmented and degraded forest patches. Most of the collieries are located within or very close to the forests thus threatening the biodiversity and hydrology of the surrounding regions. Based on the vulnerability values estimated, it was concluded that more than 90% of the forested grids in East Bokaro are highly vulnerable to mining. The forests in the sub-districts of Bermo and Chandrapura have been identified as the most vulnerable to coal mining activities. This case study would add to the capacity of the forest managers and mine managers to address the risk and vulnerability of forests at a small landscape level in order to achieve sustainable development.

Keywords: Coal mining, forest, indicators, vulnerability.

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