Search results for: statistical weather prediction

Authors: Z. Bottyán, F. Wantuch, A. Z. Gyöngyösi, Z. Tuba, K. Hadobács, P. Kardos, R. Kurunczi

Abstract:

The sensitivity of UAVs to the atmospheric effects are apparent. All the same the meteorological support for the UAVs missions is often non-adequate or partly missing. In our paper we show a new complex meteorological support system for different types of UAVs pilots, specialists and decision makers, too. The mentioned system has two important parts with different forecasts approach such as the statistical and dynamical ones. The statistical prediction approach is based on a large climatological data base and the special analog method which is able to select similar weather situations from the mentioned data base to apply them during the forecasting procedure. The applied dynamic approach uses the specific WRF model runs twice a day and produces 96 hours, high resolution weather forecast for the UAV users over the Hungary. An easy to use web-based system can give important weather information over the Carpathian basin in Central-Europe. The mentioned products can be reached via internet connection.

Keywords: Aviation meteorology, statistical weather prediction, unmanned aerial systems, WRF.

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Authors: Wei-hua Ai, Wei Yan, Xiang Li

Abstract:

Data compression is used operationally to reduce bandwidth and storage requirements. An efficient method for achieving lossless weather radar data compression is presented. The characteristics of the data are taken into account and the optical linear prediction is used for the PPI images in the weather radar data in the proposed method. The next PPI image is identical to the current one and a dramatic reduction in source entropy is achieved by using the prediction algorithm. Some lossless compression methods are used to compress the predicted data. Experimental results show that for the weather radar data, the method proposed in this paper outperforms the other methods.

Keywords: Lossless compression, weather radar data, optical linear prediction, PPI image

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Authors: Wardah, T., Kamil, A.A., Sahol Hamid, A.B., Maisarah, W.W.I

Abstract:

Quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from atmospheric model as input to hydrological model in an integrated hydro-meteorological flood forecasting system has been operational in many countries worldwide. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with grid cell sizes between 2 and 14 km have great potential in contributing towards reasonably accurate QPF. In this study the potential of two NWP models to forecast precipitation for a flood-prone area in a tropical region is examined. The precipitation forecasts produced from the Fifth Generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale (MM5) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models are statistically verified with the observed rain in Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia. The statistical verification indicates that the models have performed quite satisfactorily for low and moderate rainfall but not very satisfactory for heavy rainfall.

Keywords: MM5, Numerical weather prediction (NWP), quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), WRF

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Authors: S. Esfandeh, M. Sedighizadeh

Abstract:

Weather systems use enormously complex combinations of numerical tools for study and forecasting. Unfortunately, due to phenomena in the world climate, such as the greenhouse effect, classical models may become insufficient mostly because they lack adaptation. Therefore, the weather forecast problem is matched for heuristic approaches, such as Evolutionary Algorithms. Experimentation with heuristic methods like Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm can lead to the development of new insights or promising models that can be fine tuned with more focused techniques. This paper describes a PSO approach for analysis and prediction of data and provides experimental results of the aforementioned method on realworld meteorological time series.

Keywords: Weather, Climate, PSO, Prediction, Meteorological

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Authors: Brian A. Smith, Ronald W. McClendon, Gerrit Hoogenboom

Abstract:

The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes requires accurate air temperature prediction models. An improved model for temperature prediction in Georgia was developed by including information on seasonality and modifying parameters of an existing artificial neural network model. Alternative models were compared by instantiating and training multiple networks for each model. The inclusion of up to 24 hours of prior weather information and inputs reflecting the day of year were among improvements that reduced average four-hour prediction error by 0.18°C compared to the prior model. Results strongly suggest model developers should instantiate and train multiple networks with different initial weights to establish appropriate model parameters.

Keywords: Time-series forecasting, weather modeling.

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Authors: Brian A. Smith, Ronald W. McClendon, Gerrit Hoogenboom

Abstract:

The mitigation of crop loss due to damaging freezes requires accurate air temperature prediction models. Previous work established that the Ward-style artificial neural network (ANN) is a suitable tool for developing such models. The current research focused on developing ANN models with reduced average prediction error by increasing the number of distinct observations used in training, adding additional input terms that describe the date of an observation, increasing the duration of prior weather data included in each observation, and reexamining the number of hidden nodes used in the network. Models were created to predict air temperature at hourly intervals from one to 12 hours ahead. Each ANN model, consisting of a network architecture and set of associated parameters, was evaluated by instantiating and training 30 networks and calculating the mean absolute error (MAE) of the resulting networks for some set of input patterns. The inclusion of seasonal input terms, up to 24 hours of prior weather information, and a larger number of processing nodes were some of the improvements that reduced average prediction error compared to previous research across all horizons. For example, the four-hour MAE of 1.40°C was 0.20°C, or 12.5%, less than the previous model. Prediction MAEs eight and 12 hours ahead improved by 0.17°C and 0.16°C, respectively, improvements of 7.4% and 5.9% over the existing model at these horizons. Networks instantiating the same model but with different initial random weights often led to different prediction errors. These results strongly suggest that ANN model developers should consider instantiating and training multiple networks with different initial weights to establish preferred model parameters.

Keywords: Decision support systems, frost protection, fruit, time-series prediction, weather modeling

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Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Mary Nsabagwa, Triphonia Jacob Ngailo, Joachim Reuder, Sch¨attler Ulrich, Musa Semujju

Abstract:

The Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are considered powerful tools for guiding quantitative rainfall prediction. A couple of NWP models exist and are used at many operational weather prediction centers. This study considers two models namely the Consortium for Small–scale Modeling (COSMO) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It compares the models’ ability to predict rainfall over Uganda for the period 21st April 2013 to 10th May 2013 using the root mean square (RMSE) and the mean error (ME). In comparing the performance of the models, this study assesses their ability to predict light rainfall events and extreme rainfall events. All the experiments used the default parameterization configurations and with same horizontal resolution (7 Km). The results show that COSMO model had a tendency of largely predicting no rain which explained its under–prediction. The COSMO model (RMSE: 14.16; ME: -5.91) presented a significantly (p = 0.014) higher magnitude of error compared to the WRF model (RMSE: 11.86; ME: -1.09). However the COSMO model (RMSE: 3.85; ME: 1.39) performed significantly (p = 0.003) better than the WRF model (RMSE: 8.14; ME: 5.30) in simulating light rainfall events. All the models under–predicted extreme rainfall events with the COSMO model (RMSE: 43.63; ME: -39.58) presenting significantly higher error magnitudes than the WRF model (RMSE: 35.14; ME: -26.95). This study recommends additional diagnosis of the models’ treatment of deep convection over the tropics.

Keywords: Comparative performance, the COSMO model, the WRF model, light rainfall events, extreme rainfall events.

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Authors: Wint Thida Zaw, Thinn Thu Naing

Abstract:

One of the essential sectors of Myanmar economy is agriculture which is sensitive to climate variation. The most important climatic element which impacts on agriculture sector is rainfall. Thus rainfall prediction becomes an important issue in agriculture country. Multi variables polynomial regression (MPR) provides an effective way to describe complex nonlinear input output relationships so that an outcome variable can be predicted from the other or others. In this paper, the modeling of monthly rainfall prediction over Myanmar is described in detail by applying the polynomial regression equation. The proposed model results are compared to the results produced by multiple linear regression model (MLR). Experiments indicate that the prediction model based on MPR has higher accuracy than using MLR.

Keywords: Polynomial Regression, Rainfall Forecasting, Statistical forecasting.

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Authors: Fariba Esfandiary, Ghafoor Aghaie, Ali Dolati Mehr

Abstract:

Wheat prediction was carried out using different meteorological variables together with agro meteorological indices in Ardebil district for the years 2004-2005 & 2005–2006. On the basis of correlation coefficients, standard error of estimate as well as relative deviation of predicted yield from actual yield using different statistical models, the best subset of agro meteorological indices were selected including daily minimum temperature (Tmin), accumulated difference of maximum & minimum temperatures (TD), growing degree days (GDD), accumulated water vapor pressure deficit (VPD), sunshine hours (SH) & potential evapotranspiration (PET). Yield prediction was done two months in advance before harvesting time which was coincide with commencement of reproductive stage of wheat (5th of June). It revealed that in the final statistical models, 83% of wheat yield variability was accounted for variation in above agro meteorological indices.

Keywords: Wheat yields prediction, agro meteorological indices, statistical models

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Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Triphonia Ngailo

Abstract:

Rainfall is a major climatic parameter affecting many sectors such as health, agriculture and water resources. Its quantitative prediction remains a challenge to weather forecasters although numerical weather prediction models are increasingly being used for rainfall prediction. The performance of six convective parameterization schemes, namely the Kain-Fritsch scheme, the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme, the Grell-Deveny scheme, the Grell-3D scheme, the Grell-Fretas scheme, the New Tiedke scheme of the weather research and forecast (WRF) model regarding quantitative rainfall prediction over Uganda is investigated using the root mean square error for the March-May (MAM) 2013 season. The MAM 2013 seasonal rainfall amount ranged from 200 mm to 900 mm over Uganda with northern region receiving comparatively lower rainfall amount (200–500 mm); western Uganda (270–550 mm); eastern Uganda (400–900 mm) and the lake Victoria basin (400–650 mm). A spatial variation in simulated rainfall amount by different convective parameterization schemes was noted with the Kain-Fritsch scheme over estimating the rainfall amount over northern Uganda (300–750 mm) but also presented comparable rainfall amounts over the eastern Uganda (400–900 mm). The Betts-Miller-Janjic, the Grell-Deveny, and the Grell-3D underestimated the rainfall amount over most parts of the country especially the eastern region (300–600 mm). The Grell-Fretas captured rainfall amount over the northern region (250–450 mm) but also underestimated rainfall over the lake Victoria Basin (150–300 mm) while the New Tiedke generally underestimated rainfall amount over many areas of Uganda. For deterministic rainfall prediction, the Grell-Fretas is recommended for rainfall prediction over northern Uganda while the Kain-Fritsch scheme is recommended over eastern region.

Keywords: Convective parameterization schemes, March-May 2013 rainfall season, spatial variation of parameterization schemes over Uganda, WRF model.

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Authors: Yan Su, L. C. Chan

Abstract:

A novel typical day prediction model have been built and validated by the measured data of a grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) system in Macau. Unlike conventional statistical method used by previous study on PV systems which get results by averaging nearby continuous points, the present typical day statistical method obtain the value at every minute in a typical day by averaging discontinuous points at the same minute in different days. This typical day statistical method based on discontinuous point averaging makes it possible for us to obtain the Gaussian shape dynamical distributions for solar irradiance and output power in a yearly or monthly typical day. Based on the yearly typical day statistical analysis results, the maximum possible accumulated output energy in a year with on site climate conditions and the corresponding optimal PV system running time are obtained. Periodic Gaussian shape prediction models for solar irradiance, output energy and system energy efficiency have been built and their coefficients have been determined based on the yearly, maximum and minimum monthly typical day Gaussian distribution parameters, which are obtained from iterations for minimum Root Mean Squared Deviation (RMSD). With the present model, the dynamical effects due to time difference in a day are kept and the day to day uncertainty due to weather changing are smoothed but still included. The periodic Gaussian shape correlations for solar irradiance, output power and system energy efficiency have been compared favorably with data of the PV system in Macau and proved to be an improvement than previous models.

Keywords: Grid Connected, RMSD, Solar PV System, Typical Day.

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Authors: Zhaojun Wang, Zongdi Sun, Qinqin Cui, Xingwan Ren

Abstract:

Based on multivariate statistical analysis theory, this paper uses the principal component analysis method, Mahalanobis distance analysis method and fitting method to establish the photovoltaic health model to evaluate the health of photovoltaic panels. First of all, according to weather conditions, the photovoltaic panel variable data are classified into five categories: sunny, cloudy, rainy, foggy, overcast. The health of photovoltaic panels in these five types of weather is studied. Secondly, a scatterplot of the relationship between the amount of electricity produced by each kind of weather and other variables was plotted. It was found that the amount of electricity generated by photovoltaic panels has a significant nonlinear relationship with time. The fitting method was used to fit the relationship between the amount of weather generated and the time, and the nonlinear equation was obtained. Then, using the principal component analysis method to analyze the independent variables under five kinds of weather conditions, according to the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin test, it was found that three types of weather such as overcast, foggy, and sunny meet the conditions for factor analysis, while cloudy and rainy weather do not satisfy the conditions for factor analysis. Therefore, through the principal component analysis method, the main components of overcast weather are temperature, AQI, and pm2.5. The main component of foggy weather is temperature, and the main components of sunny weather are temperature, AQI, and pm2.5. Cloudy and rainy weather require analysis of all of their variables, namely temperature, AQI, pm2.5, solar radiation intensity and time. Finally, taking the variable values in sunny weather as observed values, taking the main components of cloudy, foggy, overcast and rainy weather as sample data, the Mahalanobis distances between observed value and these sample values are obtained. A comparative analysis was carried out to compare the degree of deviation of the Mahalanobis distance to determine the health of the photovoltaic panels under different weather conditions. It was found that the weather conditions in which the Mahalanobis distance fluctuations ranged from small to large were: foggy, cloudy, overcast and rainy.

Keywords: Fitting, principal component analysis, Mahalanobis distance, SPSS, MATLAB.

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Authors: Nabilah Filzah Mohd Radzuan, Zalinda Othman, Azuraliza Abu Bakar, Abdul Razak Hamdan

Abstract:

Uncertain data is believed to be an important issue in building up a prediction model. The main objective in the time series uncertainty analysis is to formulate uncertain data in order to gain knowledge and fit low dimensional model prior to a prediction task. This paper discusses the performance of a number of techniques in dealing with uncertain data specifically those which solve uncertain data condition by minimizing the loss of compression properties.

Keywords: Compression properties, uncertainty, uncertain time series, mining technique, weather prediction.

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Authors: Jerome T. Tolentino, Ma. Victoria Rejuso, Jara Kaye Villanueva, Loureal Camille Inocencio, Ma. Rosario Concepcion O. Ang

Abstract:

Wind energy is rapidly emerging as the primary source of electricity in the Philippines, although developing an accurate wind resource model is difficult. In this study, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, an open source mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, was used to produce a 1-year atmospheric simulation with 4 km resolution on the Ilocos Region of the Philippines. The WRF output (netCDF) extracts the annual mean wind speed data using a Python-based Graphical User Interface. Lastly, wind resource assessment was produced using a GIS software. Results of the study showed that it is more flexible to use Python scripts than using other post-processing tools in dealing with netCDF files. Using WRF Model, Python, and Geographic Information Systems, a reliable wind resource map is produced.

Keywords: Wind resource assessment, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, python, GIS software.

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Authors: Cameron Hamilton, Walter Potter, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Ronald McClendon, Will Hobbs

Abstract:

A model was constructed to predict the amount of solar radiation that will make contact with the surface of the earth in a given location an hour into the future. This project was supported by the Southern Company to determine at what specific times during a given day of the year solar panels could be relied upon to produce energy in sufficient quantities. Due to their ability as universal function approximators, an artificial neural network was used to estimate the nonlinear pattern of solar radiation, which utilized measurements of weather conditions collected at the Griffin, Georgia weather station as inputs. A number of network configurations and training strategies were utilized, though a multilayer perceptron with a variety of hidden nodes trained with the resilient propagation algorithm consistently yielded the most accurate predictions. In addition, a modeled direct normal irradiance field and adjacent weather station data were used to bolster prediction accuracy. In later trials, the solar radiation field was preprocessed with a discrete wavelet transform with the aim of removing noise from the measurements. The current model provides predictions of solar radiation with a mean square error of 0.0042, though ongoing efforts are being made to further improve the model’s accuracy.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Resilient Propagation, Solar Radiation, Time Series Forecasting.

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Authors: Hyun-Woo Cho

Abstract:

Detection of incipient abnormal events is important to improve safety and reliability of machine operations and reduce losses caused by failures. Improper set-ups or aligning of parts often leads to severe problems in many machines. The construction of prediction models for predicting faulty conditions is quite essential in making decisions on when to perform machine maintenance. This paper presents a multivariate calibration monitoring approach based on the statistical analysis of machine measurement data. The calibration model is used to predict two faulty conditions from historical reference data. This approach utilizes genetic algorithms (GA) based variable selection, and we evaluate the predictive performance of several prediction methods using real data. The results shows that the calibration model based on supervised probabilistic principal component analysis (SPPCA) yielded best performance in this work. By adopting a proper variable selection scheme in calibration models, the prediction performance can be improved by excluding non-informative variables from their model building steps.

Keywords: Prediction, operation monitoring, on-line data, nonlinear statistical methods, empirical model.

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Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, Aqil S. Burney, C. Ardil

Abstract:

Time series models have been used to make predictions of academic enrollments, weather, road accident, casualties and stock prices, etc. Based on the concepts of quartile regression models, we have developed a simple time variant quantile based fuzzy time series forecasting method. The proposed method bases the forecast using prediction of future trend of the data. In place of actual quantiles of the data at each point, we have converted the statistical concept into fuzzy concept by using fuzzy quantiles using fuzzy membership function ensemble. We have given a fuzzy metric to use the trend forecast and calculate the future value. The proposed model is applied for TAIFEX forecasting. It is shown that proposed method work best as compared to other models when compared with respect to model complexity and forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: Quantile Regression, Fuzzy time series, fuzzy logicalrelationship groups, heuristic trend prediction.

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Authors: K. Sreelakshmi, P. Ramakanthkumar

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Predicting short term wind speed is essential in order to prevent systems in-action from the effects of strong winds. It also helps in using wind energy as an alternative source of energy, mainly for Electrical power generation. Wind speed prediction has applications in Military and civilian fields for air traffic control, rocket launch, ship navigation etc. The wind speed in near future depends on the values of other meteorological variables, such as atmospheric pressure, moisture content, humidity, rainfall etc. The values of these parameters are obtained from a nearest weather station and are used to train various forms of neural networks. The trained model of neural networks is validated using a similar set of data. The model is then used to predict the wind speed, using the same meteorological information. This paper reports an Artificial Neural Network model for short term wind speed prediction, which uses back propagation algorithm.

Keywords: Short term wind speed prediction, Neural networks, Back propagation.

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Authors: Do Hoai Nam, Keiko Udo, Akira Mano

Abstract:

This paper presents the combination of different precipitation data sets and the distributed hydrological model, in order to examine the flood runoff reproductivity of scattered observation catchments. The precipitation data sets were obtained from observation using rain-gages, satellite based estimate (TRMM), and numerical weather prediction model (NWP), then were coupled with the super tank model. The case study was conducted in three basins (small, medium, and large size) located in Central Vietnam. Calculated hydrographs based on ground observation rainfall showed best fit to measured stream flow, while those obtained from TRMM and NWP showed high uncertainty of peak discharges. However, calculated hydrographs using the adjusted rainfield depicted a promising alternative for the application of TRMM and NWP in flood modeling for scattered observation catchments, especially for the extension of forecast lead time.

Keywords: Flood forecast, rainfall-runoff model, satellite rainfall estimate, numerical weather prediction, quantitative precipitation forecasting.

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Authors: Chaw Su Mon

Abstract:

Abstract— The paper presents a preliminary study on modeling and estimation of basic wind speed ( extreme wind gusts ) for the consideration of vulnerability and design of building in Ayeyarwady Region. The establishment of appropriate design wind speeds is a critical step towards the calculation of design wind loads for structures. In this paper the extreme value analysis of this prediction work is based on the anemometer data (1970-2009) maintained by the department of meteorology and hydrology of Pathein. Statistical and probabilistic approaches are used to derive formulas for estimating 3-second gusts from recorded data (10-minute sustained mean wind speeds).

Keywords: Basic Wind Speed, Building, Gusts, Statistical and probabilistic approaches

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Authors: Radouane Iqdour, Abdelouhab Zeroual

Abstract:

The Multi-Layered Perceptron (MLP) Neural networks have been very successful in a number of signal processing applications. In this work we have studied the possibilities and the met difficulties in the application of the MLP neural networks for the prediction of daily solar radiation data. We have used the Polack-Ribière algorithm for training the neural networks. A comparison, in term of the statistical indicators, with a linear model most used in literature, is also performed, and the obtained results show that the neural networks are more efficient and gave the best results.

Keywords: Daily solar radiation, Prediction, MLP neural networks, linear model

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Authors: Aneta Oblouková, Eva Vítková

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The article deals with the issue of water and sewerage charge rate prices in the Czech Republic. The research is specifically focused on the analysis of the development of the average prices of water and sewerage charge rate in the Czech Republic in 1994-2021 and on the validation of the chosen methodology relevant for the prediction of the development of the average prices of water and sewerage charge rate in the Czech Republic. The research is based on data collection. The data for this research were obtained from the Czech Statistical Office. The aim of the paper is to validate the relevance of the mathematical linear trend estimate technique for the calculation of the predicted average prices of water and sewerage charge rates. The real values of the average prices of water and sewerage charge rates in the Czech Republic in 1994-2018 were obtained from the Czech Statistical Office and were converted into a mathematical equation. The same type of real data was obtained from the Czech Statistical Office for 2019-2021. Prediction of the average prices of water and sewerage charge rates in the Czech Republic in 2019-2021 was also calculated using a chosen method – a linear trend estimation technique. The values obtained from the Czech Statistical Office and the values calculated using the chosen methodology were subsequently compared. The research result is a validation of the chosen mathematical technique to be a suitable technique for this research.

Keywords: Czech Republic, linear trend estimation, price prediction, water and sewerage charge rate.

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Authors: Yoshio Kurosawa

Abstract:

The applications of soundproof materials for reduction of high frequency automobile interior noise have been researched. This paper presents a sound pressure prediction technique including wind noise by Hybrid Statistical Energy Analysis (HSEA) in order to reduce weight of acoustic insulations. HSEA uses both analytical SEA and experimental SEA. As a result of chassis dynamo test and road test, the validity of SEA modeling was shown, and utility of the method was confirmed.

Keywords: Vibration, noise, car, statistical energy analysis.

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Authors: B. Sir, M. Podhoranyi, S. Kuchar, T. Kocyan

Abstract:

Rainfall runoff models play important role in hydrological predictions. However, the model is only one part of the process for creation of flood prediction. The aim of this paper is to show the process of successful prediction for flood event (May 15 – May 18 2014). Prediction was performed by rainfall runoff model HEC–HMS, one of the models computed within Floreon+ system. The paper briefly evaluates the results of automatic hydrologic prediction on the river Olše catchment and its gages Český Těšín and Věřňovice.

Keywords: Flood, HEC-HMS, Prediction, Rainfall – Runoff.

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Authors: S. J. Matlan, M. Mukhlisin, M. R. Taha

Abstract:

Characterization of the engineering behavior of unsaturated soil is dependent on the soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC), a graphical representation of the relationship between water content or degree of saturation and soil suction. A reasonable description of the SWCC is thus important for the accurate prediction of unsaturated soil parameters. The measurement procedures for determining the SWCC, however, are difficult, expensive, and timeconsuming. During the past few decades, researchers have laid a major focus on developing empirical equations for predicting the SWCC, with a large number of empirical models suggested. One of the most crucial questions is how precisely existing equations can represent the SWCC. As different models have different ranges of capability, it is essential to evaluate the precision of the SWCC models used for each particular soil type for better SWCC estimation. It is expected that better estimation of SWCC would be achieved via a thorough statistical analysis of its distribution within a particular soil class. With this in view, a statistical analysis was conducted in order to evaluate the reliability of the SWCC prediction models against laboratory measurement. Optimization techniques were used to obtain the best-fit of the model parameters in four forms of SWCC equation, using laboratory data for relatively coarse-textured (i.e., sandy) soil. The four most prominent SWCCs were evaluated and computed for each sample. The result shows that the Brooks and Corey model is the most consistent in describing the SWCC for sand soil type. The Brooks and Corey model prediction also exhibit compatibility with samples ranging from low to high soil water content in which subjected to the samples that evaluated in this study.

Keywords: Soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC), statistical analysis, unsaturated soil.

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Authors: N. H. Adenan, M. S. M. Noorani

Abstract:

River flow prediction is an essential to ensure proper management of water resources can be optimally distribute water to consumers. This study presents an analysis and prediction by using nonlinear prediction method involving monthly river flow data in Tanjung Tualang from 1976 to 2006. Nonlinear prediction method involves the reconstruction of phase space and local linear approximation approach. The phase space reconstruction involves the reconstruction of one-dimensional (the observed 287 months of data) in a multidimensional phase space to reveal the dynamics of the system. Revenue of phase space reconstruction is used to predict the next 72 months. A comparison of prediction performance based on correlation coefficient (CC) and root mean square error (RMSE) have been employed to compare prediction performance for nonlinear prediction method, ARIMA and SVM. Prediction performance comparisons show the prediction results using nonlinear prediction method is better than ARIMA and SVM. Therefore, the result of this study could be used to develop an efficient water management system to optimize the allocation water resources.

Keywords: River flow, nonlinear prediction method, phase space, local linear approximation.

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Authors: Madhuri Bhavsar, Anupam K Singh, Shrikant Pradhan

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Long term rainfall analysis and prediction is a challenging task especially in the modern world where the impact of global warming is creating complications in environmental issues. These factors which are data intensive require high performance computational modeling for accurate prediction. This research paper describes a prototype which is designed and developed on grid environment using a number of coupled software infrastructural building blocks. This grid enabled system provides the demanding computational power, efficiency, resources, user-friendly interface, secured job submission and high throughput. The results obtained using sequential execution and grid enabled execution shows that computational performance has enhanced among 36% to 75%, for decade of climate parameters. Large variation in performance can be attributed to varying degree of computational resources available for job execution. Grid Computing enables the dynamic runtime selection, sharing and aggregation of distributed and autonomous resources which plays an important role not only in business, but also in scientific implications and social surroundings. This research paper attempts to explore the grid enabled computing capabilities on weather indices from HOAPS data for climate impact modeling and change detection.

Keywords: Climate model, Computational Grid, GridApplication, Heterogeneous Grid

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Authors: Victor Bodell, Lukas Ekstrom, Somayeh Aghanavesi

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Fuel consumption (FC) is one of the key factors in determining expenses of operating a heavy-duty vehicle. A customer may therefore request an estimate of the FC of a desired vehicle. The modular design of heavy-duty vehicles allows their construction by specifying the building blocks, such as gear box, engine and chassis type. If the combination of building blocks is unprecedented, it is unfeasible to measure the FC, since this would first r equire the construction of the vehicle. This paper proposes a machine learning approach to predict FC. This study uses around 40,000 vehicles specific and o perational e nvironmental c onditions i nformation, such as road slopes and driver profiles. A ll v ehicles h ave d iesel engines and a mileage of more than 20,000 km. The data is used to investigate the accuracy of machine learning algorithms Linear regression (LR), K-nearest neighbor (KNN) and Artificial n eural n etworks (ANN) in predicting fuel consumption for heavy-duty vehicles. Performance of the algorithms is evaluated by reporting the prediction error on both simulated data and operational measurements. The performance of the algorithms is compared using nested cross-validation and statistical hypothesis testing. The statistical evaluation procedure finds that ANNs have the lowest prediction error compared to LR and KNN in estimating fuel consumption on both simulated and operational data. The models have a mean relative prediction error of 0.3% on simulated data, and 4.2% on operational data.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, fuel consumption, machine learning, regression, statistical tests.

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Authors: N. H. Adenan, M. S. M. Noorani

Abstract:

River flow prediction is an essential tool to ensure proper management of water resources and the optimal distribution of water to consumers. This study presents an analysis and prediction by using nonlinear prediction method with monthly river flow data for Tanjung Tualang from 1976 to 2006. Nonlinear prediction method involves the reconstruction of phase space and local linear approximation approach. The reconstruction of phase space involves the reconstruction of one-dimension (the observed 287 months of data) in a multidimensional phase space to reveal the dynamics of the system. The revenue of phase space reconstruction is used to predict the next 72 months. A comparison of prediction performance based on correlation coefficient (CC) and root mean square error (RMSE) was employed to compare prediction performance for the nonlinear prediction method, ARIMA and SVM. Prediction performance comparisons show that the prediction results using the nonlinear prediction method are better than ARIMA and SVM. Therefore, the results of this study could be used to develop an efficient water management system to optimize the allocation of water resources.

Keywords: River flow, nonlinear prediction method, phase space, local linear approximation.

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Authors: A. Elyousfi, A. Tamtaoui, E. Bouyakhf

Abstract:

The H.264/AVC standard uses an intra prediction, 9 directional modes for 4x4 luma blocks and 8x8 luma blocks, 4 directional modes for 16x16 macroblock and 8x8 chroma blocks, respectively. It means that, for a macroblock, it has to perform 736 different RDO calculation before a best RDO modes is determined. With this Multiple intra-mode prediction, intra coding of H.264/AVC offers a considerably higher improvement in coding efficiency compared to other compression standards, but computational complexity is increased significantly. This paper presents a fast intra prediction algorithm for H.264/AVC intra prediction based a characteristic of homogeneity information. In this study, the gradient prediction method used to predict the homogeneous area and the quadratic prediction function used to predict the nonhomogeneous area. Based on the correlation between the homogeneity and block size, the smaller block is predicted by gradient prediction and quadratic prediction, so the bigger block is predicted by gradient prediction. Experimental results are presented to show that the proposed method reduce the complexity by up to 76.07% maintaining the similar PSNR quality with about 1.94%bit rate increase in average.

Keywords: Intra prediction, H.264/AVC, video coding, encodercomplexity.

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