Search results for: solar cycle prediction

Authors: Ahmed Kayad Abdourazak, Abderafi Souad, Zejli Driss, Idriss Abdoulkader Ibrahim

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In this paper Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used to predict the solar irradiation in Djibouti for the first Time that is useful to the integration of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) and sites selections for new or future solar plants as part of solar energy development. An ANN algorithm was developed to establish a forward/reverse correspondence between the latitude, longitude, altitude and monthly solar irradiation. For this purpose the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) data of eight Djibouti sites were used as training and testing in a standard three layers network with the back propagation algorithm of Lavenber-Marquardt. Results have shown a very good agreement for the solar irradiation prediction in Djibouti and proves that the proposed approach can be well used as an efficient tool for prediction of solar irradiation by providing so helpful information concerning sites selection, design and planning of solar plants.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, solar irradiation, concentrated solar power, Lavenberg-Marquardt.

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Authors: Rawaa H. El-Bidweihy, Hisham M. Abdelsalam, Ihab A. El-Khodary

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In an era where machines run and shape our world, the need for a stable, non-ending source of energy emerges. In this study, the focus was on the solar energy in Egypt as a renewable source, the most important factors that could affect the solar energy’s market share throughout its life cycle production were analyzed and filtered, the relationships between them were derived before structuring a Bayesian network. Also, forecasted models were built for multiple factors to predict the states in Egypt by 2035, based on historical data and patterns, to be used as the nodes’ states in the network. 37 factors were found to might have an impact on the use of solar energy and then were deducted to 12 factors that were chosen to be the most effective to the solar energy’s life cycle in Egypt, based on surveying experts and data analysis, some of the factors were found to be recurring in multiple stages. The presented Bayesian network could be used later for scenario and decision analysis of using solar energy in Egypt, as a stable renewable source for generating any type of energy needed.

Keywords: ARIMA, auto correlation, Bayesian network, forecasting models, life cycle, partial correlation, renewable energy, SARIMA, solar energy.

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Authors: Radouane Iqdour, Abdelouhab Zeroual

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The Multi-Layered Perceptron (MLP) Neural networks have been very successful in a number of signal processing applications. In this work we have studied the possibilities and the met difficulties in the application of the MLP neural networks for the prediction of daily solar radiation data. We have used the Polack-Ribière algorithm for training the neural networks. A comparison, in term of the statistical indicators, with a linear model most used in literature, is also performed, and the obtained results show that the neural networks are more efficient and gave the best results.

Keywords: Daily solar radiation, Prediction, MLP neural networks, linear model

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Authors: Mak Kaboudan

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A multi-agent system is developed here to predict monthly details of the upcoming peak of the 24th solar magnetic cycle. While studies typically predict the timing and magnitude of cycle peaks using annual data, this one utilizes the unsmoothed monthly sunspot number instead. Monthly numbers display more pronounced fluctuations during periods of strong solar magnetic activity than the annual sunspot numbers. Because strong magnetic activities may cause significant economic damages, predicting monthly variations should provide different and perhaps helpful information for decision-making purposes. The multi-agent system developed here operates in two stages. In the first, it produces twelve predictions of the monthly numbers. In the second, it uses those predictions to deliver a final forecast. Acting as expert agents, genetic programming and neural networks produce the twelve fits and forecasts as well as the final forecast. According to the results obtained, the next peak is predicted to be 156 and is expected to occur in October 2011- with an average of 136 for that year.

Keywords: Computational techniques, discrete wavelet transformations, solar cycle prediction, sunspot numbers.

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Authors: K. Bouhadef, S. Chikh, A. Boumedien, A. Benabdesselam

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A solar refrigeration system based on the adsorptiondesorption phenomena is designed and analyzed. An annular tubular generator filled with silica gel adsorbent and with a perforated inner cylinder is integrated within a flat solar collector. The working fluid in the refrigeration cycle is water. The thermodynamic analysis and because of the temperature level that could be attained with a flat solar collector it is required that the system operates under vacuum conditions. In order to enhance the performance of the system and to get uniform temperature in the silica gel and higher desorbed mass, an apparatus for rotation of the generator is incorporated in the system. Testing is carried out and measurements are taken on the designed installation. The effect of rotation is checked on the temperature distribution and on the performance of this machine and compared to the flat solar collector with fixed generator.

Keywords: Refrigeration cycle, solar energy, rotating collector, adsorption, silica gel.

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Authors: E. T. L. Cöuras Ford, V. A. C.Vale, J. U. L Mendes

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The sun is an inexhaustible source and harness its potential both for heating and power generation is one of the most promising and necessary alternatives, mainly due to environmental issues. However, it should be noted that this has always been present in the generation of energy on earth, only indirectly, since it is responsible for virtually all other energy sources, such as generating source of evaporation of the water cycle, allowing the impoundment and the consequent generation of electricity (hydroelectric power); winds are caused by atmospheric induction caused by large scale solar radiation; petroleum, coal and natural gas were generated from waste plants and animals that originally derived energy required for their development of solar radiation. This paper presents a study on the feasibility of using solar energy for water heating in homes. A simplified methodology developed for formulation of solar heating operation model of water in alternative systems of solar energy in Brazil, and compared it to that in the international market. Across this research, it was possible to create new paradigms for alternative applications to the use of solar energy.

Keywords: Solar energy, solar heating, solar project.

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Authors: Piyush Pal, Rahul Dev

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Water is essential for life and fresh water is a finite resource that is becoming scarce day by day even though it is recycled by hydrological cycle. The fresh water reserves are being polluted due to expanding irrigation, industries, urban population and its development. Contaminated water leads to several health problems. With the increasing demand of fresh water, solar distillation is an alternate solution which uses solar energy to evaporate water and then to condense it, thereby collecting distilled water within or outside the same system to use it as potable water. The structure that houses the process is known as a 'solar still'. In this paper, ‘Modified double slope solar still (MDSSS)’ & 'Modified double slope basin type multiwick solar still (MDSBMSS)' have been designed to convert saline, brackish water into drinking water. In this work two different modified solar stills are fabricated to study the performance of these solar stills. For modification of solar stills, Fibre Reinforced Plastic (FRP) and Acrylic sheets are used. The experiments in MDSBMSS and MDSSS was carried on 10 September 2015 & 5 November 2015 respectively. Performances of the stills were investigated. The amount of distillate has been found 3624 Ml/day in MDSBMSS on 10 September 2015 and 2400 Ml/day in MDSSS on 5 November 2015.

Keywords: Contaminated water, Conventional solar still, Modified solar still, Wick.

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Authors: Rafia Akhter, Aminul Hoque

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Solar Cells are destined to supply electric energy beginning from primary resources. It can charge a battery up to 12V dc. For residential use an inverter for 12V dc to 220Vac conversion is desired. For this a static DC-AC converter is necessarily inserted between the solar cells and the distribution network. This paper describes a new P.W.M. strategy for a voltage source inverter. This modulation strategy reduces the energy losses and harmonics in the P.W.M. voltage source inverter. This technique allows the P.W.M. voltage source inverter to become a new feasible solution for solar home application.

Keywords: Boost Inverter, inverter, duty cycle, PWM

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Authors: Salvatore Marra, Francesco C. Morabito

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In this paper we present an efficient approach for the prediction of two sunspot-related time series, namely the Yearly Sunspot Number and the IR5 Index, that are commonly used for monitoring solar activity. The method is based on exploiting partially recurrent Elman networks and it can be divided into three main steps: the first one consists in a “de-rectification" of the time series under study in order to obtain a new time series whose appearance, similar to a sum of sinusoids, can be modelled by our neural networks much better than the original dataset. After that, we normalize the derectified data so that they have zero mean and unity standard deviation and, finally, train an Elman network with only one input, a recurrent hidden layer and one output using a back-propagation algorithm with variable learning rate and momentum. The achieved results have shown the efficiency of this approach that, although very simple, can perform better than most of the existing solar activity forecasting methods.

Keywords: Elman neural networks, sunspot, solar activity, time series prediction.

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Authors: Liqiang Duan, Ma Jingkai, Lv Zhipeng, Haifan Cai

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The integrated solar combined cycle (ISCC) system has a series of advantages such as increasing the system power generation, reducing the cost of solar power generation, less pollutant and CO₂ emission. In this paper, the parabolic trough collectors with direct steam generation (DSG) technology are considered to replace the heat load of heating surfaces in heat regenerator steam generation (HRSG) of a conventional natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) system containing a PG9351FA gas turbine and a triple pressure HRSG with reheat. The detailed model of the NGCC system is built in ASPEN PLUS software and the parabolic trough collectors with DSG technology is modeled in EBSILON software. ISCC-DSG systems with the replacement of single, two, three and four heating surfaces are studied in this paper. Results show that: (1) the ISCC-DSG systems with the replacement heat load of HPB, HPB+LPE, HPE2+HPB+HPS, HPE1+HPE2+ HPB+HPS are the best integration schemes when single, two, three and four stages of heating surfaces are partly replaced by the parabolic trough solar energy collectors with DSG technology. (2) Both the changes of feed water flow and the heat load of the heating surfaces in ISCC-DSG systems with the replacement of multi-stage heating surfaces are smaller than those in ISCC-DSG systems with the replacement of single heating surface. (3) ISCC-DSG systems with the replacement of HPB+LPE heating surfaces can increase the solar power output significantly. (4) The ISCC-DSG systems with the replacement of HPB heating surfaces has the highest solar-thermal-to-electricity efficiency (47.45%) and the solar radiation energy-to-electricity efficiency (30.37%), as well as the highest exergy efficiency of solar field (33.61%).

Keywords: HRSG, integration scheme, parabolic trough collectors with DSG technology, solar power generation.

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Authors: Cameron Hamilton, Walter Potter, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Ronald McClendon, Will Hobbs

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A model was constructed to predict the amount of solar radiation that will make contact with the surface of the earth in a given location an hour into the future. This project was supported by the Southern Company to determine at what specific times during a given day of the year solar panels could be relied upon to produce energy in sufficient quantities. Due to their ability as universal function approximators, an artificial neural network was used to estimate the nonlinear pattern of solar radiation, which utilized measurements of weather conditions collected at the Griffin, Georgia weather station as inputs. A number of network configurations and training strategies were utilized, though a multilayer perceptron with a variety of hidden nodes trained with the resilient propagation algorithm consistently yielded the most accurate predictions. In addition, a modeled direct normal irradiance field and adjacent weather station data were used to bolster prediction accuracy. In later trials, the solar radiation field was preprocessed with a discrete wavelet transform with the aim of removing noise from the measurements. The current model provides predictions of solar radiation with a mean square error of 0.0042, though ongoing efforts are being made to further improve the model’s accuracy.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Resilient Propagation, Solar Radiation, Time Series Forecasting.

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Authors: R. Akbari, M. A. Ehyaei, R. Shahi Shavvon

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Nowadays, solar energy is used for energy purposes such as the use of thermal energy for domestic, industrial and power applications, as well as the conversion of the sunlight into electricity by photovoltaic cells. In this study, the thermodynamic simulation of the solar Rankin cycle with phase change material (paraffin) was first studied. Then energy and exergy analyses were performed. For optimization, a single and multi-objective genetic optimization algorithm to maximize thermal and exergy efficiency was used. The parameters discussed in this paper included the effects of input pressure on turbines, input mass flow to turbines, the surface of converters and collector angles on thermal and exergy efficiency. In the organic Rankin cycle, where solar energy is used as input energy, the fluid selection is considered as a necessary factor to achieve reliable and efficient operation. Therefore, silicon oil is selected for a high-temperature cycle and water for a low-temperature cycle as an operating fluid. The results showed that increasing the mass flow to turbines 1 and 2 would increase thermal efficiency, while it reduces and increases the exergy efficiency in turbines 1 and 2, respectively. Increasing the inlet pressure to the turbine 1 decreases the thermal and exergy efficiency, and increasing the inlet pressure to the turbine 2 increases the thermal efficiency and exergy efficiency. Also, increasing the angle of the collector increased thermal efficiency and exergy. The thermal efficiency of the system was 22.3% which improves to 33.2 and 27.2% in single-objective and multi-objective optimization, respectively. Also, the exergy efficiency of the system was 1.33% which has been improved to 1.719 and 1.529% in single-objective and multi-objective optimization, respectively. These results showed that the thermal and exergy efficiency in a single-objective optimization is greater than the multi-objective optimization.

Keywords: Exergy analysis, Genetic algorithm, Rankine cycle, Single and Multi-objective function.

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Authors: Dalin Si, Azizan Aziz, Bertrand Lasternas

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To encourage building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market and reduce building peak demand, this study aims to develop models that predict day-ahead hourly electricity consumption and demand using artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). All prediction models are built in Python, with tool Scikit-learn and Pybrain. The input data for both consumption and demand prediction are time stamp, outdoor dry bulb temperature, relative humidity, air handling unit (AHU), supply air temperature and solar radiation. Solar radiation, which is unavailable a day-ahead, is predicted at first, and then this estimation is used as an input to predict consumption and demand. Models to predict consumption and demand are trained in both SVM and ANN, and depend on cooling or heating, weekdays or weekends. The results show that ANN is the better option for both consumption and demand prediction. It can achieve 15.50% to 20.03% coefficient of variance of root mean square error (CVRMSE) for consumption prediction and 22.89% to 32.42% CVRMSE for demand prediction, respectively. To conclude, the presented models have potential to help building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market, but they are not robust when used in demand response control.

Keywords: Building energy prediction, data mining, demand response, electricity market.

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Authors: S. Sendhil Kumar, S. N. Vijayan

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Utilization of solar energy can be found in various domestic and industrial applications. The performance of any solar collector is largely affected by various parameters such as glazing, absorber plate, top covers, and heating pipes. Technology improvements have brought us another method for conversion of solar energy to direct electricity using solar photovoltaic system. Utilization and extraction of solar energy is the biggest problem in these conversion methods. This paper aims to overcome these problems and take the advantages of available energy from solar by maximizing the utilization through solar tracking system using a refrigerant as a working medium. The use of this tracking system can help increase the efficiency of conversion devices by maximum utilization of solar energy. The dual axis tracking system gives maximum energy output compared to single axis tracking system.

Keywords: Refrigerant, solar collector, solar energy, solar panel, solar tracking.

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Authors: J. Rizk, M. H. Nagrial

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The paper aims to show that implementing different types of reflectors in solar energy systems, will dramatically improve energy production by means of concentrating and intensifying more sunlight onto a solar cell. The Solar Intensifier unit is designed to increase efficiency and performance of a set of solar panels. The unit was fabricated and tested. The experimental results show good improvement in the performance of the solar energy system.

Keywords: Renewable Energy, Power optimization, Solar Energy.

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Authors: Faezeh Mosallat, Eric L. Bibeau, Tarek El Mekkawy

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Parabolic solar trough systems have seen limited deployments in cold northern climates as they are more suitable for electricity production in southern latitudes. A numerical dynamic model is developed to simulate troughs installed in cold climates and validated using a parabolic solar trough facility in Winnipeg. The model is developed in Simulink and will be utilized to simulate a trigeneration system for heating, cooling and electricity generation in remote northern communities. The main objective of this simulation is to obtain operational data of solar troughs in cold climates and use the model to determine ways to improve the economics and address cold weather issues. In this paper the validated Simulink model is applied to simulate a solar assisted absorption cooling system along with electricity generation using Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) and thermal storage. A control strategy is employed to distribute the heated oil from solar collectors among the above three systems considering the temperature requirements. This modelling provides dynamic performance results using measured meteorological data recorded every minute at the solar facility location. The purpose of this modeling approach is to accurately predict system performance at each time step considering the solar radiation fluctuations due to passing clouds. Optimization of the controller in cold temperatures is another goal of the simulation to for example minimize heat losses in winter when energy demand is high and solar resources are low. The solar absorption cooling is modeled to use the generated heat from the solar trough system and provide cooling in summer for a greenhouse which is located next to the solar field. The results of the simulation are presented for a summer day in Winnipeg which includes comparison of performance parameters of the absorption cooling and ORC systems at different heat transfer fluid (HTF) temperatures.

Keywords: Absorption cooling, parabolic solar trough, remote community, organic Rankine cycle.

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Authors: S. Kong Wang

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The purpose of this study is to investigate the efficiency of a double-layer roof in collecting solar energy as an application to the areas such as raising high-end temperature of organic Rankine cycle (ORC). The by-product of the solar roof is to reduce building air-conditioning loads. The experimental apparatus are arranged to evaluate the effects of the solar roof in absorbing solar energy. The flow channel is basically formed by an aluminum plate on top of a plywood plate. The geometric configurations in which the effects of absorbing energy is analyzed include: a bare uncovered aluminum plate, a glass-covered aluminum plate, a glass-covered/black-painted aluminum plate, a plate with variable lengths, a flow channel with stuffed material (in an attempt on enhancement of heat conduction), and a flow channel with variable slanted angles. The experimental results show that the efficiency of energy collection varies from 0.6 % to 11 % for the geometric configurations mentioned above. An additional study is carried out using CFD simulation to investigate the effects of fins on the aluminum plate. It shows that due to vastly enhanced heat conduction, the efficiency can reach ~23 % if 50 fins are installed on the aluminum plate. The study shows that a double-layer roof can efficiently absorb solar energy and substantially reduce building air-conditioning loads. On the high end of an organic Rankine cycle, a solar pond is used to replace the warm surface water of the sea as OTEC (ocean thermal energy conversion) is the driving energy for the ORC. The energy collected from the double-layered solar roof can be pumped into the pond and raise the pond temperature as the pond surface area is equivalently increased by nearly one-fourth of the total area of the double-layer solar roof. The effect of raising solar pond temperature is especially prominent if the double-layer solar roofs are installed in a community area.

Keywords: solar energy collection, double-layer solar roof, energy conservation, ORC, OTEC

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Authors: Rami El-Hajj Mohamad, Mahmoud Skafi, Ali Massoud Haidar

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Several meteorological parameters were used for the  prediction of monthly average daily global solar radiation on  horizontal using recurrent neural networks (RNNs). Climatological  data and measures, mainly air temperature, humidity, sunshine  duration, and wind speed between 1995 and 2007 were used to design  and validate a feed forward and recurrent neural network based  prediction systems. In this paper we present our reference system  based on a feed-forward multilayer perceptron (MLP) as well as the  proposed approach based on an RNN model. The obtained results  were promising and comparable to those obtained by other existing  empirical and neural models. The experimental results showed the  advantage of RNNs over simple MLPs when we deal with time series  solar radiation predictions based on daily climatological data.

Keywords: Recurrent Neural Networks, Global Solar Radiation, Multi-layer perceptron, gradient, Root Mean Square Error.

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Authors: Yan Su, L. C. Chan

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A novel typical day prediction model have been built and validated by the measured data of a grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) system in Macau. Unlike conventional statistical method used by previous study on PV systems which get results by averaging nearby continuous points, the present typical day statistical method obtain the value at every minute in a typical day by averaging discontinuous points at the same minute in different days. This typical day statistical method based on discontinuous point averaging makes it possible for us to obtain the Gaussian shape dynamical distributions for solar irradiance and output power in a yearly or monthly typical day. Based on the yearly typical day statistical analysis results, the maximum possible accumulated output energy in a year with on site climate conditions and the corresponding optimal PV system running time are obtained. Periodic Gaussian shape prediction models for solar irradiance, output energy and system energy efficiency have been built and their coefficients have been determined based on the yearly, maximum and minimum monthly typical day Gaussian distribution parameters, which are obtained from iterations for minimum Root Mean Squared Deviation (RMSD). With the present model, the dynamical effects due to time difference in a day are kept and the day to day uncertainty due to weather changing are smoothed but still included. The periodic Gaussian shape correlations for solar irradiance, output power and system energy efficiency have been compared favorably with data of the PV system in Macau and proved to be an improvement than previous models.

Keywords: Grid Connected, RMSD, Solar PV System, Typical Day.

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Authors: Mohammed A. Elhaj, Jamal S. Yassin

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In the present time, energy crises is considered a severe problem across the world. For the protection of global environment and maintain ecological balance, energy saving is considered one of the most vital issues from the view point of fuel consumption. As the industrial sectors everywhere continue efforts to improve their energy efficiency, recovering waste heat losses provides an attractive opportunity for an emission free and less costly energy resource. In the other hand the using of solar energy has become more insistent particularly after the high gross of prices and running off the conventional energy sources. Therefore, it is essential that we should endeavor for waste heat recovery as well as solar energy by making significant and concrete efforts. For these reasons this investigation is carried out to study and analyze the performance of a power plant working by a combined cycle in which heat recovery system generator (HRSG) gets its energy from the waste heat of a gas turbine unit. Evaluation of the performance of the plant is based on different thermal efficiencies of the main components in addition to the second law analysis considering the exergy destructions for the whole components. The contribution factors including the solar as well as the wasted energy are considered in the calculations. The final results have shown that there is significant exergy destruction in solar concentrator and the combustion chamber of the gas turbine unit. Other components such as compressor, gas turbine, steam turbine and heat exchangers having insignificant exergy destruction. Also, solar energy can contribute by about 27% of the input energy to the plant while the energy lost with exhaust gases can contribute by about 64% at maximum cases.

Keywords: Solar energy, environment, efficiency, waste heat, steam generator, performance, exergy destruction.

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Authors: Donepudi Jagadish

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In the view of current requirements of power generation and the increased interest on renewable energy sources, many options are available for generation of clean power. Solar power generation would be one of the best options in this context. The solar pond uses the principle of conversion of solar energy into heat energy, and also has the capability of storing this energy for certain period of time. The solar ponds could be best option for the regions with high solar radiation throughout the day, and also has free land availability. The paper depicts the significance of solar pond for conversion of solar energy into heat energy with a sight towards the parameters like thermal efficiency, working conditions and cost of construction. The simulation of solar pond system has been carried out for understanding the trends of the thermal efficiencies with respect to time.

Keywords: Renewable Energy, Solar Pond, Energy Efficiency, Construction of Solar Pond.

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Authors: Akanksha Menon, Nesrin Ozalp

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Solar energy is not only sustainable but also a clean alternative to be used as source of high temperature heat for many processes and power generation. However, the major drawback of solar energy is its transient nature. Especially in solar thermochemical processing, it is crucial to maintain constant or semiconstant temperatures inside the solar reactor. In our laboratory, we have developed a mechanism allowing us to achieve semi-constant temperature inside the solar reactor. In this paper, we introduce the concept along with some updated designs and provide the optical analysis of the concept under various incoming flux.

Keywords: Aperture, Solar reactor, Optical analysis, Solar thermal

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Authors: Ali M. Jawarneh, Ahmad S. AL-Shyyab

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The purpose of this work is to present the potential of solar energy in Zarqa region. The solar radiation along year 2009 was obtained from Pyranometer which measures the global radiation over horizontal surfaces. Solar data in several different forms, over period of 5 minutes, hour-by-hour, daily and monthly data radiation have been presented. Briefly, the yearly global solar radiation in Zarqa is 7297.5 MJ/m2 (2027 kWh/m²) and the average annual solar radiation per day is 20 MJ/m2 (5.5 Kwh/m2). More specifically, the average annual solar radiation per day is 12.9 MJ/m2 (3.57 Kwh/m2) in winter and 25 MJ/m2 (7 Kwh/m2) in summer.

Keywords: Solar Energy, Pyranometer, Zarqa Region

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Authors: M. F. V. Montezuma, E. P. Deus, M. C. Carvalho

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Steel bridges are normally subjected to random loads with different traffic frequencies. They are structures with dynamic behavior and are subject to fatigue failure process, where the nucleation of a crack, growth and failure can occur. After locating and determining the size of an existing fault, it is important to predict the crack propagation and the convenient time for repair. Therefore, fracture mechanics and fatigue concepts are essential to the right approach to the problem. To study the fatigue crack growth, a computational code was developed by using the root mean square (RMS) and the cycle-by-cycle models. One observes the variable amplitude loading influence on the life structural prediction. Different loads histories and initial crack length were considered as input variables. Thus, it was evaluated the dispersion of results of the expected structural life choosing different initial parameters.

Keywords: Fatigue crack propagation, life prediction, variable loadings, steel bridges.

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Authors: M. M. M. Jaradat, M. K. Al-Qeyyam

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The length of a cycle basis of a graph is the sum of the lengths of its elements. A minimum cycle basis is a cycle basis with minimum length. In this work, a construction of a minimum cycle basis for the wreath product of wheels with stars is presented. Moreover, the length of minimum cycle basis and the length of its longest cycle are calculated.

Keywords: Cycle space, minimum cycle basis, wreath product.

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

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This study evaluated the uncertainties involved in the solar radiation projections generated by the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) of the Weather and Climate Prediction Center (CPTEC) belonging to Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), with the aim of identifying efficiency in the projections for solar radiation of said model and in this way establish the viability of its use. Two different scenarios elaborated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were evaluated: RCP 4.5 (with more optimistic contour conditions) and 8.5 (with more pessimistic initial conditions). The method used to verify the accuracy of the present model was the Nash coefficient and the Statistical bias, as it better represents these atmospheric patterns. The BESM showed a tendency to overestimate the data ​​of solar radiation projections in most regions of the state of Rio Grande do Sul and through the validation methods adopted by this study, BESM did not present a satisfactory accuracy.

Keywords: Climate changes, projections, solar radiation, uncertainty.

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Authors: Naci Kalkan, Ihsan Dagtekin

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This research presents the design and analysis of solar air-conditioning systems particularly solar chimney which is a passive strategy for natural ventilation, and demonstrates the structures of these systems’ using Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) and finally compares the results with several examples, which have been studied experimentally and carried out previously. In order to improve the performance of solar chimney system, highly efficient sub-system components are considered for the design. The general purpose of the research is to understand how efficiently solar chimney systems generate cooling, and is to improve the efficient of such systems for integration with existing and future domestic buildings.

Keywords: Solar cooling system, solar chimney, active and passive solar technologies, natural ventilation, cavity depth, CFD models for solar chimney.

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Authors: Chien-Cheng Kuo

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We design and discuss metal-dielectric antireflection coating on metallic substrates for Solar Selective Absorbers of Concentrating Solar Power Systems. The average reflectance is 8.5% at 400-3000nm and 84.4% at 3000nm-10000nm of the metal-dielectric structure.

Keywords: Concentrating solar power systems, solar thermal, solar selective absorber, absorptance, emittance.

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Authors: Neeraj Mohan, Parvinder S. Sandhu, Hardeep Singh

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Software maintenance is extremely important activity in software development life cycle. It involves a lot of human efforts, cost and time. Software maintenance may be further subdivided into different activities such as fault prediction, fault detection, fault prevention, fault correction etc. This topic has gained substantial attention due to sophisticated and complex applications, commercial hardware, clustered architecture and artificial intelligence. In this paper we surveyed the work done in the field of software maintenance. Software fault prediction has been studied in context of fault prone modules, self healing systems, developer information, maintenance models etc. Still a lot of things like modeling and weightage of impact of different kind of faults in the various types of software systems need to be explored in the field of fault severity.

Keywords: Fault prediction, Software Maintenance, Automated Fault Prediction, and Failure Mode Analysis

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Authors: Zane Brough, Claudio Paoloni

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Modern low earth orbit (LEO) satellites that require multi-mission flexibility are highly likely to be repositioned between different operational orbits. While executing this process the satellite may experience high levels of vibration and environmental hazards, exposing the deployed solar panel to dangerous stress levels, fatigue and space debris, hence it is desirable to retract the solar array before satellite repositioning to avoid damage or failure.

A novel concept of deployable/retractable hybrid solar array systemcomposed of both rigid and flexible solar panels arranged within a petal formation, aimed to provide a greater power to volume ratio while dramatically reducing mass and cost is proposed.

Keywords: Deployable Solar Panel, Satellite, Retractable Solar Panel, Hybrid Solar Panel.

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