Search results for: scenario generation

Authors: Osamah A. Alsayegh, Fatma A. Fairouz

Abstract:

This paper compares planning results of the electricity and water generation inventory up to year 2030 in the State of Kuwait. Currently, the generation inventory consists of oil and gas fired technologies only. The planning study considers two main cases. The first case, Reference case, examines a generation inventory based on oil and gas fired generation technologies only. The second case examines the inclusion of renewables as part of the generation inventory under two scenarios. In the first scenario, Ref-RE, renewable build-out is based on optimum economic performance of overall generation system. Result shows that the optimum installed renewable capacity with electric energy generation of 11% . In the second scenario, Ref-RE20, the renewable capacity build-out is forced to provide 20% of electric energy by 2030. The respective energy systems costs of Reference, Ref-RE and Ref-RE20 case scenarios reach US dollar 24, 10 and 14 billion annually in 2030.

Keywords: Generation inventory, solar, planning, TIMES, wind.

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Authors: S. T. Tan, H. Hashim, W. S. Ho, C. T. Lee

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Rapid economic development and population growth in Malaysia had accelerated the generation of solid waste. This issue gives pressure for effective management of municipal solid waste (MSW) to take place in Malaysia due to the increased cost of landfill. This paper discusses optimal planning of waste-to-energy (WTE) using a combinatorial simulation and optimization model through mixed integer linear programming (MILP) approach. The proposed multi-period model is tested in Iskandar Malaysia (IM) as case study for a period of 12 years (2011 -2025) to illustrate the economic potential and tradeoffs involved in this study. In this paper, 3 scenarios have been used to demonstrate the applicability of the model: (1) Incineration scenario (2) Landfill scenario (3) Optimal scenario. The model revealed that the minimum cost of electricity generation from 9,995,855 tonnes of MSW is estimated as USD 387million with a total electricity generation of 50MW /yr in the optimal scenario.

Keywords: Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP), optimization, solid waste management (SWM), Waste-to-energy (WTE).

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Authors: B. Mouginot, J.B. Clavel, N Thiolliere

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The presented work is motivated by a french law regarding nuclear waste management. In order to avoid the limitation coming with the usage of the existing scenario codes, as COSI, VISION or FAMILY, the Core Library for Advance Scenario Simulation (CLASS) is being develop. CLASS is an open source tool, which allows any user to simulate an electronuclear scenario. The main CLASS asset, is the possibility to include any type of reactor, even a complitely new concept, through the generation of its ACSII evolution database. In the present article, the CLASS working basis will be presented as well as a simple exemple in order to show his potentiel. In the considered exemple, the effect of the transmutation will be assessed on Minor Actinide Inventory produced by PWR reactors.

Keywords: Electronuclear scenario, reactor, simulation, nuclear waste.

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Authors: Cencen Li, Shaoying Liu, Shin Nakajima

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Specification-based testing enables us to detect errors in the implementation of functions defined in given specifications. Its effectiveness in achieving high path coverage and efficiency in generating test cases are always major concerns of testers. The automatic test cases generation approach based on formal specifications proposed by Liu and Nakajima is aimed at ensuring high effectiveness and efficiency, but this approach has not been empirically assessed. In this paper, we present an experiment for assessing Liu-s testing approach. The result indicates that this testing approach may not be effective in some circumstances. We discuss the result, analyse the specific causes for the ineffectiveness, and describe some suggestions for improvement.

Keywords: experiment, functional scenario, specification-based, testing.

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Authors: A. Kumar, V. Devadas

Abstract:

India has the most year-round favorable sunny conditions along with the second-highest solar irradiation in the world, the country holds the potential to become the global solar hub. The solar and wind-based generation capacity has skyrocketed in India with the successful effort of the Ministry of Renewable Energy, whereas the potential of rooftop based solar power generation has yet to be explored for proposed solar cities in India. The research aims to analyze the gap in the energy scenario in Jodhpur City and proposes interventions of solar energy generation systems as a catalyst for urban development. The research is based on the system concept which deals with simulation between the city system as a whole and its interactions between different subsystems. A system-dynamics based mathematical model is developed by identifying the control parameters using regression and correlation analysis to assess the gap in energy sector. The base model validation is done using the past 10 years timeline data collected from secondary sources. Further, energy consumption and solar energy generation-based projection are made for testing different scenarios to conclude the feasibility for maintaining the city level energy independence till 2031.

Keywords: City, consumption, energy, generation.

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Authors: Marina Kapsali, John S. Anagnostopoulos

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On the basis of comparative analysis of alternative “development scenarios” for electricity generation, the main objective of the present study is to investigate the techno-economic viability of high wind energy (WE) use at the local (island) level. An integrated theoretical model is developed based on first principles assuming two main possible scenarios for covering future electrification needs of a medium–sized Greek island, i.e. Lesbos. The first scenario (S1), assumes that the island will keep using oil products as the main source for electricity generation. The second scenario (S2) involves the interconnection of the island with the mainland grid to satisfy part of the electricity demand, while remarkable WE penetration is also achieved. The economic feasibility of the above solutions is investigated in terms of determining their Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for the time-period 2020-2045, including also a sensitivity analysis on the worst/reference/best Cases. According to the results obtained, interconnection of Lesbos Island with the mainland grid (S2) presents considerable economic interest in comparison to autonomous development (S1) with WE having a prominent role to this effect.

Keywords: Electricity generation cost, levelized cost of energy, mainland, wind energy surplus.

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Authors: Ali Y Al-Attraqchi, P. Rajeev, M. Javad Hashemi, Riadh Al-Mahaidi

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This paper presents a probabilistic incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) of a full reinforced concrete building subjected to column loss scenario for the assessment of progressive collapse. The IDA is chosen to explicitly account for uncertainties in loads and system capacity. Fragility curves are developed to predict the probability of progressive collapse given the loss of one or more columns. At a broader scale, it will also provide critical information needed to support the development of a new generation of design codes that attempt to explicitly quantify structural robustness.

Keywords: Incremental dynamic analysis, progressive collapse, structural engineering, pushdown analysis.

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Authors: M. Esmaeeli Shahrakht, A. Kazemi

Abstract:

Due to uncertainty of wind velocity, wind power generators don’t have deterministic output power. Utilizing wind power generation and thermal power plants together create new concerns for operation engineers of power systems. In this paper, a model is presented to implement the uncertainty of load and generated wind power which can be utilized in power system operation planning. Stochastic behavior of parameters is simulated by generating scenarios that can be solved by deterministic method. A mixed-integer linear programming method is used for solving deterministic generation scheduling problem. The proposed approach is applied to a 12-unit test system including 10 thermal units and 2 wind farms. The results show affectivity of piecewise linear model in unit commitment problems. Also using linear programming causes a considerable reduction in calculation times and guarantees convergence to the global optimum. Neglecting the uncertainty of wind velocity causes higher cost assessment of generation scheduling.

Keywords: Load uncertainty, linear programming, scenario generation, unit commitment, wind farm.

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Authors: Şahin Emrah Amrahov, Fatih Aybar, Serhat Doğan

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In this paper we consider the rule reduct generation problem. Rule Reduct Generation (RG) and Modified Rule Generation (MRG) algorithms, that are used to solve this problem, are well-known. Alternative to these algorithms, we develop Pruning Rule Generation (PRG) algorithm. We compare the PRG algorithm with RG and MRG.

Keywords: Rough sets, Decision rules, Rule induction, Classification.

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Authors: Roland Lang, Dietmar Bruckner, Rosemarie Velik, Tobias Deutsch

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Modern building automation needs to deal with very different types of demands, depending on the use of a building and the persons acting in it. To meet the requirements of situation awareness in modern building automation, scenario recognition becomes more and more important in order to detect sequences of events and to react to them properly. We present two concepts of scenario recognition and their implementation, one based on predefined templates and the other applying an unsupervised learning algorithm using statistical methods. Implemented applications will be described and their advantages and disadvantages will be outlined.

Keywords: Building automation, ubiquitous computing, scenariorecognition, surveillance system.

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Authors: Agnès Garletti

Abstract:

Our research aims at helping the tutor on line to evaluate the student-s cognitive processes. The student is a learner in French as a Second Language who studies an on-line socio-cognitive scenario in written communication. In our method, these cognitive processes are defined. For that, the language abilities and learning tasks are associated to cognitive operation. Moreover, the found cognitive processes are named with specific terms. The result was to create an instrumental pattern to question the learner about the cognitive processes used to build an item of written comprehension. Our research follows the principles of the third historical generation of studies on the cognitive activity of the text comprehension. The strength of our instrumental pattern stands in the precision and the logical articulation of the questions to the learner. However, the learner-s answers can still be subjective but the precision of the instrument restricts it.

Keywords: Cognitive processes, Evaluation pattern, French as asecond language, Socio-cognitive scenario, Written comprehension.

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Authors: Joanna Nieżurawska, Hanna Karaszewska, Anna Dziadkiewicz

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Contemporary conditions force companies to constantly implement changes and improvements, which is connected with plasticization of their activity in all spheres. Cafeteria systems are a good example of flexible remuneration systems. Cafeteria systems are well-known and often used in the United States, Great Britain and in Western Europe. In Poland, they are hardly ever used and greater flexibility in remuneration packages refers mainly to senior managers and executives. The main aim of this article is to research the attractiveness of the cafeteria system as viewed by generation Z. The additional aim of the article is to prioritize using the importance index of particular types of cafeteria systems from the generation Z’s perspective, as well as to identify the factors which determine the development of cafeteria systems in Poland. The research was conducted in June 2015 among 185 young employees (generation Z). The paper presents some of the results.

Keywords: Cafeteria, generation X, generation Y, generation Z, flexible remuneration systems, plasticization of remuneration.

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Authors: Hamid Barati, Ali Movaghar, Ali Barati, Arash Azizi Mazreah , Ehsan Shahsavari Gogheri, Faranak Mohsenzadeh

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The communication networks development and advancement during two last decades has been toward a single goal and that is gradual change from circuit-switched networks to packed switched ones. Today a lot of networks operates are trying to transform the public telephone networks to multipurpose packed switch. This new achievement is generally called "next generation networks". In fact, the next generation networks enable the operators to transfer every kind of services (sound, data and video) on a network. First, in this report the definition, characteristics and next generation networks services and then ad-hoc networks role in the next generation networks are studied.

Keywords: NGNs services, Ad-hoc Networks, NGN.

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Authors: N. Rugthaicharoencheep, S. Auchariyamet

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Distributed Generation (DG) in the form of renewable power generation systems is currently preferred for clean power generation. It has a significant impact on the distribution systems. This impact may be either positively or negatively depending on the distribution system, distributed generator and load characteristics. In this works, an overview of DG is briefly introduced. The technology of DG is also listed while the technical impacts and economic impacts are explained.

Keywords: Distributed Generation, Technical Impacts, Economic Impacts.

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Authors: Abdulrahman A. Bahaddad, Mohammed Beshir

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The objective of this paper is to demonstrate and describe eight different types of power generation technologies and to understand the history and future trends of each technology. In addition, a comparative analysis between these technologies will be presented with respect to their cost analysis and associated performance.

Keywords: Conventional power generation, economic analysis, environmental impact, renewable energy power generation.

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Authors: I.V. Saradhi, G.G. Pandit, V.D. Puranik

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Increasing concerns over climate change have limited the liberal usage of available energy technology options. India faces a formidable challenge to meet its energy needs and provide adequate energy of desired quality in various forms to users in sustainable manner at reasonable costs. In this paper, work carried out with an objective to study the role of various energy technology options under different scenarios namely base line scenario, high nuclear scenario, high renewable scenario, low growth and high growth rate scenario. The study has been carried out using Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts (MESSAGE) model which evaluates the alternative energy supply strategies with user defined constraints on fuel availability, environmental regulations etc. The projected electricity demand, at the end of study period i.e. 2035 is 500490 MWYr. The model predicted the share of the demand by Thermal: 428170 MWYr, Hydro: 40320 MWYr, Nuclear: 14000 MWYr, Wind: 18000 MWYr in the base line scenario. Coal remains the dominant fuel for production of electricity during the study period. However, the import dependency of coal increased during the study period. In baseline scenario the cumulative carbon dioxide emissions upto 2035 are about 11,000 million tones of CO2. In the scenario of high nuclear capacity the carbon dioxide emissions reduced by 10 % when nuclear energy share increased to 9 % compared to 3 % in baseline scenario. Similarly aggressive use of renewables reduces 4 % of carbon dioxide emissions.

Keywords: Carbon dioxide, energy, electricity, message.

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Authors: Ali Mchirgui, Nejib Hidouri, Mourad Magherbi, Ammar Ben Brahim

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The paper provides a numerical investigation of the entropy generation analysis due to natural convection in an inclined square porous cavity. The coupled equations of mass, momentum, energy and species conservation are solved using the Control Volume Finite-Element Method. Effect of medium permeability and inclination angle on entropy generation is analysed. It was found that according to the Darcy number and the porous thermal Raleigh number values, the entropy generation could be mainly due to heat transfer or to fluid friction irreversibility and that entropy generation reaches extremum values for specific inclination angles.

Keywords: Porous media, entropy generation, convection, numerical method.

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Authors: Milan Rippel, Petr Teply

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This paper focuses on operational risk measurement techniques and on economic capital estimation methods. A data sample of operational losses provided by an anonymous Central European bank is analyzed using several approaches. Loss Distribution Approach and scenario analysis method are considered. Custom plausible loss events defined in a particular scenario are merged with the original data sample and their impact on capital estimates and on the financial institution is evaluated. Two main questions are assessed – What is the most appropriate statistical method to measure and model operational loss data distribution? and What is the impact of hypothetical plausible events on the financial institution? The g&h distribution was evaluated to be the most suitable one for operational risk modeling. The method based on the combination of historical loss events modeling and scenario analysis provides reasonable capital estimates and allows for the measurement of the impact of extreme events on banking operations.

Keywords: operational risk, scenario analysis, economic capital, loss distribution approach, extreme value theory, stress testing

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Authors: V. Phupha, T. Lantharthong, N. Rugthaicharoencheep

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The problem of generation expansion planning (GEP) has been extensively studied for many years. This paper presents three topics in GEP as follow: statistical model, models for generation expansion, and expansion problem. In the topic of statistical model, the main stages of the statistical modeling are briefly explained. Some works on models for GEP are reviewed in the topic of models for generation expansion. Finally for the topic of expansion problem, the major issues in the development of a longterm expansion plan are summarized.

Keywords: Generation expansion planning, strategies, power system

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Authors: Ghassan A. Abed, Bayan M. Sabbar

Abstract:

The society of 3^rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) is completed developing Long Term Evolution Advanced (LTE-Advanced) systems as a standard 4G cellular system. This generation goals to produce conditions for a new radio-access technology geared to higher data rates, low latency, and better spectral efficiency. LTE-Advanced is an evolutionary step in the continuing development of LTE where the description in this article is based on LTE release 10. This paper provides a model of the traffic links of 4G system represented by LTE-Advanced system with the effect of the Transmission Control Protocols (TCP) and Stream Control Transmission Protocol (SCTP) in term of throughput and packet loss. Furthermore, the article presents the investigation and the analysis the behavior of SCTP and TCP variants over the 4G cellular systems. The traffic model and the scenario of the simulation developed using the network simulator NS-2 using different TCP source variants.

Keywords: LTE-Advanced, LTE, SCTP, TCP, 4G, NS-2.

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Authors: Soumia Ichoua

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In this paper, we investigate the strategic stochastic air traffic flow management problem which seeks to balance airspace capacity and demand under weather disruptions. The goal is to reduce the need for myopic tactical decisions that do not account for probabilistic knowledge about the NAS near-future states. We present and discuss a scenario-based modeling approach based on a time-space stochastic process to depict weather disruption occurrences in the NAS. A solution framework is also proposed along with a distributed implementation aimed at overcoming scalability problems. Issues related to this implementation are also discussed.

Keywords: Air traffic management, sample average approximation, scenario-based approach, stochastic capacity.

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Authors: Osamu Saito

Abstract:

Commercial infrastructures intended for use as leisure retreats such as golf and ski resorts have been extensively developed in many rural areas of Japan. However, following the burst of the economic bubble in the 1990s, several existing resorts faced tough management decisions and some were forced to close their business. In this study, six alternative management options for restructuring the existing golf courses (park, cemetery, biofuel production, reforestation, pasturing and abandonment) are examined and their environmental and economic impacts are quantitatively assessed. In addition, restructuring scenarios of these options and an ex-ante assessment model are developed. The scenario analysis by Monte Carlo simulation shows a clear trade-off between GHG savings and benefit/cost (B/C) ratios, of which “Restoring Nature" scenario absorbs the most CO2 among the four scenarios considered, but its B/C ratio is the lowest. This study can be used to select or examine options and scenarios of golf course management and rural environmental management policies.

Keywords: golf courses, restructuring and management options, scenario analysis, Tokyo Metropolitan Area.

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Authors: Hyung-Jin Jang, Kwang-Bok Shin, Sung-Ho Han

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This paper describes the crashworthiness assessment and improvement of tlting train made of sandwich composites. The crashworhiness assessment of tilting train was conducted according to four collision scenarios of the Korean railway safety law. Collision analysis was carried out using explicit finite element analysis code LS-DYNA 3D. The finite element model consists of 3-D finite element model and 1-D equivalent model to save the finite element modeling and calculation time. It found that the crashworthiness analysis results were satisfied with the performance requirements except the crash scenario-2. In order to meet the crashworthiness requirements for crash scenario-2, the stiffness reinforcement for the laminate composite cover and metal frames of cabmask structure were proposed. Consequentially, it has satisfied the requirement for crash scenario-2.

Keywords: Crashworthiness, collision scenario, Korean railway safety law, sandwich composite, tilting train.

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Authors: Hiroaki Sumi, Kiichiro Hayashi

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Now, the use of renewable energy power generation has been advanced. In this paper, we compared the usable amount of resource for photovoltaic power generation which was estimated using the NEDO formula and the expansion support policy of photovoltaic power generation which was researched using Internet in the municipality level in Hokkaido and Aichi Prefecture, Japan. This paper will contribute to grasp the current situation especially about the policy. As a result, there were municipalities which seemed to be no consideration of fitting the amount of resources. We think it would need to consider the suitability between the resources and policies.

Keywords: Photovoltaic power generation, expansion support policy, amount of resources, Japan.

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Authors: S. H. Oudjana, A. Hellal, I. Hadj Mahammed

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Photovoltaic power generation forecasting is an important task in renewable energy power system planning and operating. This paper explores the application of neural networks (NN) to study the design of photovoltaic power generation forecasting systems for one week ahead using weather databases include the global irradiance, and temperature of Ghardaia city (south of Algeria) using a data acquisition system. Simulations were run and the results are discussed showing that neural networks Technique is capable to decrease the photovoltaic power generation forecasting error.

Keywords: Photovoltaic Power Forecasting, Regression, Neural Networks.

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Authors: Norfifah Bachok, Norihan Md. Arifin

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In this paper we use classical linear stability theory to investigate the effects of uniform internal heat generation on the onset of Marangoni convection in a horizontal layer of fluid heated from below. We use a analytical technique to obtain the close form analytical expression for the onset of Marangoni convection when the lower boundary is conducting with free-slip condition. We show that the effect of increasing the internal heat generation is always to destabilize the layer.

Keywords: Marangoni convection, heat generation, free-slip

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Authors: Yudha Prambudia, Masaru Nakano

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Due to rapid economic growth, Indonesia's energy needs is rapidly increasing. Indonesia-s primary energy consumption has doubled in 2007 compared to 2003. Indonesia's status change from oil net-exporter to oil net-importer country recently has increased Indonesia's concern over energy security. Due to this, oil import becomes center of attention in the dynamics of Indonesia's energy security. Conventional studies addressing Indonesia's energy security have focused on energy production sector. This study explores Indonesia-s energy security considering energy import sector by modeling and simulating Indonesia-s energy-related policies using system dynamics. Simulation result of Indonesia's energy security in 2020 in Business-As-Usual scenario shows that in term of supply demand ratio, energy security will be very high, but also it poses high dependence on energy import. The Alternative scenario result shows lower energy security in term of supply demand ratio and much lower dependence on energy import. It is also found that the Alternative scenario produce lower GDP growth.

Keywords: Energy security, modeling, simulation, system dynamics.

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Authors: Gayadhar Panda, Sidhartha Panda, C. Ardil

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The design of Automatic Generation Control (AGC) system plays a vital role in automation of power system. This paper proposes Hybrid Neuro Fuzzy (HNF) approach for AGC of two-area interconnected reheat thermal power system with the consideration of Generation Rate Constraint (GRC). The advantage of proposed controller is that it can handle the system non-linearities and at the same time the proposed approach is faster than conventional controllers. The performance of HNF controller has been compared with that of both conventional Proportional Integral (PI) controller as well as Fuzzy Logic Controller (FLC) both in the absence and presence of Generation Rate Constraint (GRC). System performance is examined considering disturbance in each area of interconnected power system.

Keywords: Automatic Generation Control (AGC), Dynamic Response, Generation Rate Constraint (GRC), Proportional Integral(PI) Controller, Fuzzy Logic Controller (FLC), Hybrid Neuro-Fuzzy(HNF) Control, MATLAB/SIMULINK.

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Authors: L. Heidari, M. Jalili Ghazizade

Abstract:

This paper aims to determine the best environmental and economic scenario for Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) management of the Maku city by using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. The functional elements of this study are collection, transportation, and disposal of MSW in Maku city. Waste composition and density, as two key parameters of MSW, have been determined by field sampling, and then, the other important specifications of MSW like chemical formula, thermal energy and water content were calculated. These data beside other information related to collection and disposal facilities are used as a reliable source of data to assess the environmental impacts of different waste management options, including landfills, composting, recycling and energy recovery. The environmental impact of MSW management options has been investigated in 15 different scenarios by Integrated Waste Management (IWM) software. The photochemical smog, greenhouse gases, acid gases, toxic emissions, and energy consumption of each scenario are measured. Then, the environmental indices of each scenario are specified by weighting these parameters. Economic costs of scenarios have been also compared with each other based on literature. As final result, since the organic materials make more than 80% of the waste, compost can be a suitable method. Although the major part of the remaining 20% of waste can be recycled, due to the high cost of necessary equipment, the landfill option has been suggested. Therefore, the scenario with 80% composting and 20% landfilling is selected as superior environmental and economic scenario. This study shows that, to select a scenario with practical applications, simultaneously environmental and economic aspects of different scenarios must be considered.

Keywords: IWM software, life cycle assessment, Maku, municipal solid waste management.

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Authors: Raju Kaduru, Narsaiah Srinivas Gondlala

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This paper presents an analytical approach for evaluating distribution system reliability indices in the presence of distributed generation. Modeling distributed generation and evaluation of distribution system reliability indices using the frequency duration technique. Using model implements and case studies are discussed. Results showed that location of DG and its effect in distribution reliability indices. In this respect, impact of DG on distribution system is investigated using the IEEE Roy Billinton test system (RBTS2) included feeder 1. Therefore, it will help to the distribution system planners in the DG resource placement.

Keywords: Distributed Generation, DG Location, Distribution System, Reliability Indices.

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