Search results for: Power System Economics (Electricity markets)

Authors: Abdulrahman Alsuhaibani, Martin Macken

Abstract:

FACTS devices have great influence on the grid stability and power markets price. Recently, there is intent to integrate a large scale of renewable energy sources to the power system which in turn pushes the power system to operate closer to the security limits. This paper discusses the power system stability and reliability improvement that could be achieved by using FACTS. There is a comparison between FACTS devices to evaluate their performance for different functions. A case study has also been made about its effect on reducing generation cost and minimizing transmission losses which have good impact on efficient and economic operation of electricity markets.

Keywords: FACTS, grid stability, spot price, Optimal Power Flow.

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Authors: Ashish Saini, A.K. Saxena

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In competitive electricity markets all over the world, an adoption of suitable transmission pricing model is a problem as transmission segment still operates as a monopoly. Transmission pricing is an important tool to promote investment for various transmission services in order to provide economic, secure and reliable electricity to bulk and retail customers. The nodal pricing based on SRMC (Short Run Marginal Cost) is found extremely useful by researchers for sending correct economic signals. The marginal prices must be determined as a part of solution to optimization problem i.e. to maximize the social welfare. The need to maximize the social welfare subject to number of system operational constraints is a major challenge from computation and societal point of views. The purpose of this paper is to present a nodal transmission pricing model based on SRMC by developing new mathematical expressions of real and reactive power marginal prices using GA-Fuzzy based optimal power flow framework. The impacts of selecting different social welfare functions on power marginal prices are analyzed and verified with results reported in literature. Network revenues for two different power systems are determined using expressions derived for real and reactive power marginal prices in this paper.

Keywords: Deregulation, electricity markets, nodal pricing, social welfare function, short run marginal cost.

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Authors: P. Kanakasabapathy, Radhika. S,

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In the competitive electricity market environment, the profit of the pumped-storage plant in the energy market can be maximized by operating it as a generator, when market clearing price is high and as a pump, to pump water from lower reservoir to upper reservoir, when the price is low. An optimal self-scheduling plan has been developed for a pumped-storage plant, carried out on weekly basis in order to maximize the profit of the plant, keeping into account of all the major uncertainties such as the sudden ancillary service delivery request and the price forecasting errors. For a pumped storage power plant to operate in a real time market successive self scheduling has to be done by considering the forecast of the day-ahead market and the modified reservoir storage due to the ancillary service request of the previous day. Sliding Window Technique has been used for successive self scheduling to ensure profit for the plant.

Keywords: Ancillary services, BPSO, Power System Economics (Electricity markets), Self-Scheduling, Sliding Window Technique.

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Authors: Paula Ferreira, Madalena Araújo, M.E.J. O’Kelly

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Combining energy efficiency with renewable energy sources constitutes a key strategy for a sustainable future. The wind power sector stands out as a fundamental element for the achievement of the European renewable objectives and Portugal is no exception to the increase of the wind energy for the electricity generation. This work proposes an optimization model for the long range electricity power planning in a system similar to the Portuguese one, where the expected impacts of the increasing installed wind power on the operating performance of thermal power plants are taken into account. The main results indicate that the increasing penetration of wind power in the electricity system will have significant effects on the combined cycle gas power plants operation and on the theoretically expected cost reduction and environmental gains. This research demonstrated the need to address the impact that energy sources with variable output may have, not only on the short-term operational planning, but especially on the medium to long range planning activities, in order to meet the strategic objectives for the energy sector.

Keywords: Wind power, electricity planning model, cost, emissions.

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Authors: Marin Mandić, Elis Sutlović, Tonći Modrić, Luka Stanić

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With the restructuring and deregulation of the power system, storage owners, generation companies or private producers can offer their multiple services on various power markets and earn income in different types of markets, such as the day-ahead, real-time, ancillary services market, etc. During the COVID-19 pandemic, electricity prices, as well as ancillary services prices, increased significantly. The optimization of the energy storage operation was performed using a suitable model for simulating the operation of a pumped storage hydropower plant under market conditions. The objective function maximizes the income earned through energy arbitration, regulation-up, regulation-down and spinning reserve services. The optimization technique used for solving the objective function is mixed integer linear programming (MILP). In numerical examples, the pumped storage hydropower plant operation has been optimized considering the already achieved hourly electricity market prices from Nord Pool for the pre-pandemic (2019) and the pandemic (2020 and 2021) years. The impact of the electricity market prices during the COVID-19 pandemic on energy storage operation is shown through the analysis of income, operating hours, reserved capacity and consumed energy for each service. The results indicate the role of energy storage during a significant fluctuation in electricity and services prices.

Keywords: Electrical market prices, electricity market, energy storage optimization, mixed integer linear programming, MILP, optimization.

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Authors: Osamah A. Alsayegh

Abstract:

Kuwait-s electric power system is vertically integrated organization owned and operated by the government. For more than five decades, the government of Kuwait has provided relatively reliable electric services to consumers with subsidized electric service fees. Given the country-s rapid socio-economical development and consequently the increase of electricity demand, a question that inflicts itself: Is it necessary to reform the power system to face the fast growing demand? This paper recommends that the government should consider the private sector as a partner in operating the power system. Therefore, power system restructuring is needed to allow such partnership. There are challenges that prevent such restructuring. Abstract recommendations toward resolving these challenges are proposed.

Keywords: Deregulation, electricity market, ISO, private sector.

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Authors: T. Hussein

Abstract:

The use of power system stabilizers (PSSs) to damp power system swing mode of oscillations is practical important. Our purpose is to retune the power system stabilizer (PSS1A) parameters in Unitrol D produced by ABB– was installed in 1995in Benghazi North Power Plants (BNPPs) at General Electricity Company of Libya (GECOL). The optimal values of the power system stabilizer (PSS1A) parameters are determined off-line by a particle swarm optimization technique (PSO). The objective is to damp the local and inter-area modes of oscillations that occur following power system disturbances. The retuned power system stabilizer (PSS1A) can cope with large disturbance at different operating points and has enhanced power system stability.

Keywords: Static excitation system, particle swarm optimization (PSO), power system stabilizer (PSS).

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Authors: Aparna Viswanath

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Electricity spot prices are highly volatile under optimal generation capacity scenarios due to factors such as nonstorability of electricity, peak demand at certain periods, generator outages, fuel uncertainty for renewable energy generators, huge investments and time needed for generation capacity expansion etc. As a result market participants are exposed to price and volume risk, which has led to the development of risk management practices. This paper provides an overview of risk management practices by market participants in electricity markets using financial derivatives.

Keywords: Financial Derivatives, Forward, Futures, Options, Risk Management.

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Authors: Abdullah M. Alodhaiani, Yasir A. Alturki, Mohamed A. Elkady

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Complex power flow distribution factors, which relate line complex power flows to the bus injected complex powers, have been widely used in various power system planning and analysis studies. In particular, AC distribution factors have been used extensively in the recent power and energy pricing studies in free electricity market field. As was demonstrated in the existing literature, many of the electricity market related costing studies rely on the use of the distribution factors. These known distribution factors, whether the injection shift factors (ISF’s) or power transfer distribution factors (PTDF’s), are linear approximations of the first order sensitivities of the active power flows with respect to various variables. This paper presents a novel model for evaluating the universal distribution factors (UDF’s), which are appropriate for an extensive range of power systems analysis and free electricity market studies. These distribution factors are used for the calculations of lines complex power flows and its independent of bus power injections, they are compact matrix-form expressions with total flexibility in determining the position on the line at which line flows are measured. The proposed approach was tested on IEEE 9-Bus system. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed approach is very accurate compared with exact method.

Keywords: Distribution Factors, Power System, Sensitivity Factors, Electricity Market.

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Authors: Tomislav Stambolic, Anton Causevski

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The deficit of power supply in Macedonia is almost 30% or reached up to 3000 GWh in a year. The existing thermal and hydro power plants are not enough to cover the power and energy, so the import increases every year. Therefore, in order to have more domestic energy supply, the new trends in renewable and energy efficiency should be implemented in power sector. The paper gives some perspectives for development of the power system in Macedonia, taking into account the growth of electricity demand and in the same time with implementation of renewable and energy efficiency. The development of power system is made for the period up to 2030 with the period of every 5 years.

Keywords: Energy, Power System, Renewable, Efficiency

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Authors: Chonmapat Torasa

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This paper presents the performance of electricity generation and consumption from solar generator installed at Rajabhat Suan Sunandha’s learning center in Samutsongkram. The result from the experiment showed that solar cell began to work and distribute the current into the system when the solar energy intensity was 340 w/m2, starting from 8:00 am to 4:00 pm (duration of 8 hours). The highest intensity read during the experiment was 1,051.64w/m2. The solar power was 38.74kWh/day. The electromotive force from solar cell averagely was 93.6V. However, when connecting solar cell with the battery charge controller system, the voltage was dropped to 69.07V. After evaluating the power distribution ability and electricity load of tested solar cell, the result showed that it could generate power to 11 units of 36-watt fluorescent lamp bulbs, which was altogether 396W. In the meantime, the AC to DC power converter generated 3.55A to the load, and gave 781VA.

Keywords: Solar Cell, Solar-cell power generating system.

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Authors: Heather Wyman-Pain, Yuankai Bian, Furong Li

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The decreasing use of fossil fuel power stations has a negative effect on the stability of the electricity systems in many countries. Nuclear power stations have traditionally provided minimal ancillary services to support the system but this must change in the future as they replace fossil fuel generators. This paper explains the development of the four most popular reactor types still in regular operation across the world which have formed the basis for most reactor development since their commercialisation in the 1950s. The use of nuclear power in four countries with varying levels of capacity provided by nuclear generators is investigated, using the primary frequency response provided by generators as a measure for the electricity networks stability, to assess the need for nuclear generators to provide additional support as their share of the generation capacity increases.

Keywords: Frequency control, nuclear power generation, power system stability, system inertia.

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Authors: K. Balamurugan, V. Dharmalingam, R. Muralisachithanandam, R. Sankaran

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This paper deals with the optimal choice and location of FACTS devices in deregulated power systems using Differential Evolution algorithm. The main objective of this paper is to achieve the power system economic generation allocation and dispatch in deregulated electricity market. Using the proposed method, the locations of the FACTS devices, their types and ratings are optimized simultaneously. Different kinds of FACTS devices such as TCSC and SVC are simulated in this study. Furthermore, their investment costs are also considered. Simulation results validate the capability of this new approach in minimizing the overall system cost function, which includes the investment costs of the FACTS devices and the bid offers of the market participants. The proposed algorithm is an effective and practical method for the choice and location of suitable FACTS devices in deregulated electricity market.

Keywords: FACTS Devices, Deregulated Electricity Market, Optimal Location, Differential Evolution, Mat Lab.

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Authors: Lan Wu

Abstract:

China’s declared transformation towards a ‘new electricity system dominated by renewable energy’ requires a cleaner electricity consumption mix with high shares of renewable energy sourced-electricity (RES-E). Unfortunately, integration of RES-E into Chinese electricity markets remains a problem pending more robust legal support, evidenced by the curtailment of wind and solar power due to integration constraints. The upcoming Energy Law of the PRC (Energy Law) is expected to provide such long-awaiting support and coordinate the existing diverse sector-specific laws to deal with the weak implementation that dampening the delivery of their desired regulatory effects. However, in the shadow of the COVID-19 crisis, it remains uncertain how this new Energy Law brings synergies to RES-E integration, mindful of the significant impacts of the pandemic. Through the theoretical lens of the interplay between China’s electricity market reform and legislative development, this paper investigates whether there is a paradigm shift in Energy Law regarding renewable energy integration compared with the existing sector-specific energy laws. It examines the 2020 Draft for Comments on the Energy Law and analyses its relationship with sector-specific energy laws focusing on RES-E integration. The comparison is drawn upon five critical aspects of the RES-E integration issue, including the status of renewables, marketisation, incentive schemes, consumption mechanisms, access to power grids and dispatching. The analysis shows that it is reasonable to expect a more open and well-organised electricity market, enabling the absorption of high shares of RES-E. The present paper concludes that a period of prosperous development of RES-E in the post-COVID-19 era can be anticipated with the legal support by the upcoming Energy Law. It contributes to understanding the signals China is sending regarding the transition towards a cleaner energy future.

Keywords: energy law, energy transition, electricity market reform, renewable energy integration

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Authors: K. Balamurugan, R. Muralisachithanandam, V. Dharmalingam, R. Srikanth

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This paper deals with the optimal choice and allocation of multi FACTS devices in Deregulated power system using Evolutionary Programming method. The objective is to achieve the power system economic generation allocation and dispatch in deregulated electricity market. Using the proposed method, the locations of the FACTS devices, their types and ratings are optimized simultaneously. Different kinds of FACTS devices are simulated in this study such as UPFC, TCSC, TCPST, and SVC. Simulation results validate the capability of this new approach in minimizing the overall system cost function, which includes the investment costs of the FACTS devices and the bid offers of the market participants. The proposed algorithm is an effective and practical method for the choice and allocation of FACTS devices in deregulated electricity market environment. The standard data of IEEE 14 Bus systems has been taken into account and simulated with aid of MAT-lab software and results were obtained.

Keywords: FACTS devices, Optimal allocation, Deregulated electricity market, Evolutionary programming, Mat Lab.

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Authors: M. Centra

Abstract:

Due to the liberalization of countless electricity markets, load forecasting has become crucial to all public utilities for which electricity is a strategic variable. With the goal of contributing to the forecasting process inside public utilities, this paper addresses the issue of applying the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing technique and the time series analysis for forecasting the hourly electricity load curve of the Italian railways. The results of the analysis confirm the accuracy of the two models and therefore the relevance of forecasting inside public utilities.

Keywords: ARIMA models, Exponential smoothing, Electricity, Load forecasting, Rail transportation.

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Authors: F. Gökgöz, M. E. Atmaca

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Electricity plays an indispensable role in human life and the economy. It is a unique product or service that must be balanced instantaneously, as electricity is not stored, generation and consumption should be proportional. Effective and efficient use of electricity is very important not only for society, but also for the environment. A competitive electricity market is one of the best ways to provide a suitable platform for effective and efficient use of electricity. On the other hand, it carries some risks that should be carefully managed by the market players. Risk management is an essential part in market players’ decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is applied with the help of Markowitz’s Mean-variance, Down-side and Semi-variance methods for a case study. Performance of optimal electricity sale solutions are measured and evaluated via Sharpe-Ratio, and the optimal portfolio solutions are improved. Two years of historical weekdays’ price data of the Turkish Day Ahead Market are used to demonstrate the approach.

Keywords: Electricity market, portfolio optimization, risk management in electricity market, Sharpe ratio.

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Authors: Erik Delarue, David Bekaert, Ronnie Belmans, William D'haeseleer

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This paper presents the development of an electricity simulation model taking into account electrical network constraints, applied on the Belgian power system. The base of the model is optimizing an extensive Unit Commitment (UC) problem through the use of Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). Electrical constraints are incorporated through the implementation of a DC load flow. The model encloses the Belgian power system in a 220 – 380 kV high voltage network (i.e., 93 power plants and 106 nodes). The model features the use of pumping storage facilities as well as the inclusion of spinning reserves in a single optimization process. Solution times of the model stay below reasonable values.

Keywords: Electricity generation modeling, Unit Commitment(UC), Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP), DC load flow.

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Authors: Kanhu Charan Bhuyan, Subhransu Padhee, Rajesh Kumar Patjoshi, Kamalakanta Mahapatra

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Fuel cell is an emerging technology in the field of renewable energy sources which has the capacity to replace conventional energy generation sources. Fuel cell utilizes hydrogen energy to produce electricity. The electricity generated by the fuel cell can’t be directly used for a specific application as it needs proper power conditioning. Moreover, the output power fluctuates with different operating conditions. To get a stable output power at an economic rate, power conditioning circuit is essential for fuel cell. This paper implements a two-staged power conditioning unit for fuel cell based distributed generation using hysteresis current control technique.

Keywords: Fuel cell, power conditioning unit, hysteresis control.

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Authors: Wennan Long, Yuhao Nie, Yunan Li, Adam Brandt

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To fight against climate change, California government issued the Senate Bill No. 100 (SB-100) in 2018 September, which aims at achieving a target of 100% renewable electricity by the end of 2045. A capacity expansion problem is solved in this case study using a binary quadratic programming model. The optimal locations and capacities of the potential renewable power plants (i.e., solar, wind, biomass, geothermal and hydropower), the phase-out schedule of existing fossil-based (nature gas) power plants and the transmission of electricity across the entire network are determined with the minimal total annualized cost measured by net present value (NPV). The results show that the renewable electricity contribution could increase to 85.9% by 2030 and reach 100% by 2035. Fossil-based power plants will be totally phased out around 2035 and solar and wind will finally become the most dominant renewable energy resource in California electricity mix.

Keywords: 100% renewable electricity, California, capacity expansion, binary quadratic programming.

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Authors: Durga Gautam, Mithulananthan Nadarajah

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This paper presents the influence of distributed generation (DG) on congestion and locational marginal price (LMP) in an optimal power flow (OPF) based wholesale electricity market. The problem of optimal placement to manage congestion and reduce LMP is formulated for the objective of social welfare maximization. From competitive electricity market standpoint, DGs have great value when they reduce load in particular locations and at particular times when feeders are heavily loaded. The paper lies on the groundwork that solution to optimal mix of generation and transmission resources can be achieved by addressing congestion and corresponding LMP. Obtained as lagrangian multiplier associated with active power flow equation for each node, LMP gives the short run marginal cost (SRMC) of electricity. Specific grid locations are examined to study the influence of DG penetration on congestion and corresponding shadow prices. The influence of DG on congestion and locational marginal prices has been demonstrated in a modified IEEE 14 bus test system.

Keywords: Congestion management, distributed generation, electricity market, locational marginal price, optimal power flow, social welfare.

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Authors: Rahib Abiyev, Vasif H. Abiyev, C. Ardil

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In this paper the development of neural network based fuzzy inference system for electricity consumption prediction is considered. The electricity consumption depends on number of factors, such as number of customers, seasons, type-s of customers, number of plants, etc. It is nonlinear process and can be described by chaotic time-series. The structure and algorithms of neuro-fuzzy system for predicting future values of electricity consumption is described. To determine the unknown coefficients of the system, the supervised learning algorithm is used. As a result of learning, the rules of neuro-fuzzy system are formed. The developed system is applied for predicting future values of electricity consumption of Northern Cyprus. The simulation of neuro-fuzzy system has been performed.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, neural network, neuro-fuzzy system, neuro-fuzzy prediction.

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Authors: A. Bozkurt, C. Kocatepe, R. Yumurtaci, İ. C. Tastan, G. Tulun

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Efficient use of energy, the increase in demand of energy and also with the reduction of natural energy sources, has improved its importance in recent years. Most of the losses in the system from electricity produced until the point of consumption is mostly composed by the energy distribution system. In this study, analysis of the resulting loss in power distribution transformer and distribution power cable is realized which are most of the losses in the distribution system. Transformer losses in the real distribution system are analyzed by CYME Power Engineering Software program. These losses are disclosed for different voltage levels and different loading conditions.

Keywords: Distribution system, distribution transformer, power cable, technical losses.

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Authors: Farhan Beg

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The Indian subcontinent is facing a massive challenge with regards to the energy security in member countries, i.e. providing a reliable source of electricity to facilitate development across various sectors of the economy and thereby achieve the developmental targets it has set for itself. A highly precarious situation exists in the subcontinent which is observed in the series of system failures which most of the times leads to system collapses-blackouts. To mitigate the issues related with energy security as well as keep in check the increasing supply demand gap, a possible solution that stands in front of the subcontinent is the deployment of an interconnected electricity ‘Supergrid’ designed to carry huge quanta of power across the sub continent as well as provide the infra structure for RES integration. This paper assesses the need and conditions for a Supergrid deployment and consequently proposes a meshed topology based on VSC HVDC converters for the Supergrid modeling.

Keywords: Super grid, Wind and Solar Energy, HVDC, Electricity management, Load Flow Analysis.

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Authors: Victor Birikorang Danquah

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Ghana's primary energy supply is heavily reliant on petroleum, biomass, and hydropower. Currently, Ghana gets its energy from hydropower (Akosombo and Bui), thermal power plants powered by crude oil, natural gas, and diesel, solar power, and imports from La Cote d'Ivoire. Until the early 2000s, large hydroelectric dams dominated Ghana's electricity generation. Due to the unreliable weather patterns, Ghana increased its reliance on thermal power. Thermal power contributes the highest percentage in terms of electricity generation in Ghana and is predominantly supplied by Independent Power Producers (IPPs). Ghana's electricity industry operates the corporate utility model as its business model. This model is typically 'vertically integrated', with a single corporation selling the majority of power generated by its generation assets to its retail business, which then sells the electricity to retail market consumers. The corporate utility model has a straightforward value proposition that is based on increasing the number of energy units sold. The unit volume business model drives the entire energy value chain to increase throughput, locking system users into unsustainable practices. This report uses the qualitative research approach to explore the electricity industry in Ghana. There is the need for increasing renewable energy such as wind and solar in the electricity generation. The research recommends two critical business models for the penetration of renewable energy in Ghana's power sector. The first model is the peer-to-peer electricity trading model which relies on a software platform to connect consumers and generators in order for them to trade energy directly with one another. The second model is about encouraging local energy generation, incentivizing optimal time-of-use behaviour, and allow any financial gains to be shared among the community members.

Keywords: business model innovation, electricity generation, renewable energy, solar energy, sustainability, wind energy

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Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

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Electricity markets throughout the world have undergone substantial changes. Accurate, reliable, clear and comprehensible modeling and forecasting of different variables (loads and prices in the first instance) have achieved increasing importance. In this paper, we describe the actual state of the art focusing on reg-SARMA methods, which have proven to be flexible enough to accommodate the electricity price/load behavior satisfactory. More specifically, we will discuss: 1) The dichotomy between point and interval forecasts; 2) The difficult choice between stochastic (e.g. climatic variation) and non-deterministic predictors (e.g. calendar variables); 3) The confrontation between modelling a single aggregate time series or creating separated and potentially different models of sub-series. The noteworthy point that we would like to make it emerge is that prices and loads require different approaches that appear irreconcilable even though must be made reconcilable for the interests and activities of energy companies.

Keywords: Forecasting problem, interval forecasts, time series, electricity prices, reg-plus-SARMA methods.

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Authors: L.Ramesh, S.P.Chowdhury, S.Chowdhury, A.A.Natarajan, C.T.Gaunt

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Accurate loss minimization is the critical component for efficient electrical distribution power flow .The contribution of this work presents loss minimization in power distribution system through feeder restructuring, incorporating DG and placement of capacitor. The study of this work was conducted on IEEE distribution network and India Electricity Board benchmark distribution system. The executed experimental result of Indian system is recommended to board and implement practically for regulated stable output.

Keywords: Distribution system, Distributed Generation LossMinimization, Network Restructuring

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Authors: Wenhao Wang, Xinzhi Xu, Limin Feng, Wei Cong

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This paper comprehensively investigates current development status of global power grids and fossil energy pipelines (oil and natural gas), proposes a standard visual platform of global power and fossil energy based on Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. In this visual platform, a series of systematic visual models is proposed with global spatial data, systematic energy and power parameters. Under this visual platform, the current Global Power Grids Map and Global Fossil Energy Pipelines Map are plotted within more than 140 countries and regions across the world. Using the multi-scale fusion data processing and modeling methods, the world’s global fossil energy pipelines and power grids information system basic database is established, which provides important data supporting global fossil energy and electricity research. Finally, through the systematic and comparative study of global fossil energy pipelines and global power grids, the general status of global fossil energy and electricity development are reviewed, and energy transition in key areas are evaluated and analyzed. Through the comparison analysis of fossil energy and clean energy, the direction of relevant research is pointed out for clean development and energy transition.

Keywords: Energy Transition, geographic information system, fossil energy, power systems.

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Authors: Tien-Shun Chan, Yung-Chung Chang, Cheng-Yu Chu, Wen-Hui Chen, Yuan-Lin Chen, Shun-Chong Wang, Chang-Chun Wang

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98% of the energy needed in Taiwan has been imported. The prices of petroleum and electricity have been increasing. In addition, facility capacity, amount of electricity generation, amount of electricity consumption and number of Taiwan Power Company customers have continued to increase. For these reasons energy conservation has become an important topic. In the past linear regression was used to establish the power consumption models for chillers. In this study, grey prediction is used to evaluate the power consumption of a chiller so as to lower the total power consumption at peak-load (so that the relevant power providers do not need to keep on increasing their power generation capacity and facility capacity). In grey prediction, only several numerical values (at least four numerical values) are needed to establish the power consumption models for chillers. If PLR, the temperatures of supply chilled-water and return chilled-water, and the temperatures of supply cooling-water and return cooling-water are taken into consideration, quite accurate results (with the accuracy close to 99% for short-term predictions) may be obtained. Through such methods, we can predict whether the power consumption at peak-load will exceed the contract power capacity signed by the corresponding entity and Taiwan Power Company. If the power consumption at peak-load exceeds the power demand, the temperature of the supply chilled-water may be adjusted so as to reduce the PLR and hence lower the power consumption.

Keywords: Gery system theory, grey prediction, chller.

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

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Electricity prices have sophisticated features such as high volatility, nonlinearity and high frequency that make forecasting quite difficult. Electricity price has a volatile and non-random character so that, it is possible to identify the patterns based on the historical data. Intelligent decision-making requires accurate price forecasting for market traders, retailers, and generation companies. So far, many shallow-ANN (artificial neural networks) models have been published in the literature and showed adequate forecasting results. During the last years, neural networks with many hidden layers, which are referred to as DNN (deep neural networks) have been using in the machine learning community. The goal of this study is to investigate electricity price forecasting performance of the shallow-ANN and DNN models for the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. The forecasting accuracy of the models has been evaluated with publicly available data from the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. Both shallow-ANN and DNN approach would give successful result in forecasting problems. Historical load, price and weather temperature data are used as the input variables for the models. The data set includes power consumption measurements gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. In this regard, forecasting studies have been carried out comparatively with shallow-ANN and DNN models for Turkish electricity markets in the related time period. The main contribution of this study is the investigation of different shallow-ANN and DNN models in the field of electricity price forecast. All models are compared regarding their MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Square) results. DNN models give better forecasting performance compare to shallow-ANN. Best five MAE results for DNN models are 0.346, 0.372, 0.392, 0,402 and 0.409.

Keywords: Deep learning, artificial neural networks, energy price forecasting, Turkey.

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