Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 36

Search results for: Delphi

36 Prioritization Assessment of Housing Development Risk Factors: A Fuzzy Hierarchical Process-Based Approach

Authors: Yusuf Garba Baba

Abstract:

The construction industry and housing subsector are fraught with risks that have the potential of negatively impacting on the achievement of project objectives. The success or otherwise of most construction projects depends to large extent on how well these risks have been managed. The recent paradigm shift by the subsector to use of formal risk management approach in contrast to hitherto developed rules of thumb means that risks must not only be identified but also properly assessed and responded to in a systematic manner. The study focused on identifying risks associated with housing development projects and prioritisation assessment of the identified risks in order to provide basis for informed decision. The study used a three-step identification framework: review of literature for similar projects, expert consultation and questionnaire based survey to identify potential risk factors. Delphi survey method was employed in carrying out the relative prioritization assessment of the risks factors using computer-based Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) software. The results show that 19 out of the 50 risks significantly impact on housing development projects. The study concludes that although significant numbers of risk factors have been identified as having relevance and impacting to housing construction projects, economic risk group and, in particular, ‘changes in demand for houses’ is prioritised by most developers as posing a threat to the achievement of their housing development objectives. Unless these risks are carefully managed, their effects will continue to impede success in these projects. The study recommends the adoption and use of the combination of multi-technique identification framework and AHP prioritization assessment methodology as a suitable model for the assessment of risks in housing development projects.

Keywords: Risk identification, risk assessment, analytical hierarchical process, multi-criteria decision.

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35 Identifying Critical Success Factors for Data Quality Management through a Delphi Study

Authors: Maria Paula Santos, Ana Lucas

Abstract:

Organizations support their operations and decision making on the data they have at their disposal, so the quality of these data is remarkably important and Data Quality (DQ) is currently a relevant issue, the literature being unanimous in pointing out that poor DQ can result in large costs for organizations. The literature review identified and described 24 Critical Success Factors (CSF) for Data Quality Management (DQM) that were presented to a panel of experts, who ordered them according to their degree of importance, using the Delphi method with the Q-sort technique, based on an online questionnaire. The study shows that the five most important CSF for DQM are: definition of appropriate policies and standards, control of inputs, definition of a strategic plan for DQ, organizational culture focused on quality of the data and obtaining top management commitment and support.

Keywords: Critical success factors, data quality, data quality management, Delphi, Q-Sort.

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34 Screening of Strategic Management Criterions in Hospitals Using Delphi-Fuzzy Method

Authors: Helia Moayedi, Mahdi Moaidi

Abstract:

Nowadays, the managing and planning of hospitals is facing many problems. Failure to recognize the main criteria for strategic management to ensure long-term hospital performance can lead to many health problems. To achieve this goal, a qualitative-quantitate method titled Delphi-Fuzzy has been applied. This strategy makes it possible for experts to screen among the most important criteria in strategic management. To conduct this operation, a statistical society consisting of 20 experts in Ahwaz hospitals has been questioned. The final model confirms the key criterions after three stages of Delphi. This model provides the possibility to focus on the basic criteria and can determine the organization’s main orientation.

Keywords: Delphi-Fuzzy Method, hospital management, long-term planning, qualitative-quantitate method, screening of strategic criteria, strategic planning.

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33 Developing Islamic Module Project for Preschool Teachers Using Modified Delphi Technique

Authors: Mazeni Ismail, Nurul Aliah, Hasmadi Hassan

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to gather the consensus of experts regarding the use of moral guidance amongst preschool teachers vis-a-vis the Islamic Project module (I-Project Module). This I-Project Module seeks to provide pertinent data on the assimilation of noble values in subject-matter teaching. To obtain consensus for the various components of the module, the Modified Delphi technique was used to develop the module. 12 subject experts from various educational fields of Islamic education, early childhood education, counselling and language fully participated in the development of this module. The Modified Delphi technique was administered in two mean cycles. The standard deviation value derived from questionnaires completed by the participating panel of experts provided the value of expert consensus reached. This was subsequently analyzed using SPSS version 22. Findings revealed that the panel of experts reached a discernible degree of agreement on five topics outlined in the module, viz; content (mean value 3.36), teaching strategy (mean value 3.28), programme duration (mean value 3.0), staff involved and attention-grabbing strategy of target group participating in the value program (mean value 3.5), and strategy to attract attention of target group to utilize i-project (mean value 3.0). With regard to the strategy to attract the attention of the target group, the experts proposed for creative activities to be added in order to enhance teachers’ creativity.

Keywords: Islamic project, modified Delphi technique, project approach, teacher moral guidance.

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32 Concept for Knowledge out of Sri Lankan Non-State Sector: Performances of Higher Educational Institutes and Successes of Its Sector

Authors: S. Jeyarajan

Abstract:

Concept of knowledge is discovered from conducted study for successive Competition in Sri Lankan Non-State Higher Educational Institutes. The Concept discovered out of collected Knowledge Management Practices from Emerald inside likewise reputed literatures and of Non-State Higher Educational sector. A test is conducted to reveal existences and its reason behind of these collected practices in Sri Lankan Non-State Higher Education Institutes. Further, unavailability of such study and uncertain on number of participants for data collection in the Sri Lankan context contributed selection of research method as qualitative method, which used attributes of Delphi Method to manage those likewise uncertainty. Data are collected under Dramaturgical Method, which contributes efficient usage of the Delphi method. Grounded theory is selected as data analysis techniques, which is conducted in intermixed discourse to manage different perspectives of data that are collected systematically through perspective and modified snowball sampling techniques. Data are then analysed using Grounded Theory Development Techniques in Intermix discourses to manage differences in Data. Consequently, Agreement in the results of Grounded theories and of finding in the Foreign Study is discovered in the analysis whereas present study conducted as Qualitative Research and The Foreign Study conducted as Quantitative Research. As such, the Present study widens the discovery in the Foreign Study. Further, having discovered reason behind of the existences, the Present result shows Concept for Knowledge from Sri Lankan Non-State sector to manage higher educational Institutes in successful manner.

Keywords: Adherence of snowball sampling into perspective sampling, Delphi method in qualitative method, grounded theory development in intermix discourses of analysis, knowledge management for success of higher educational institutes.

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31 Applying Resilience Engineering to improve Safety Management in a Construction Site: Design and Validation of a Questionnaire

Authors: M. C. Pardo-Ferreira, J. C. Rubio-Romero, M. Martínez-Rojas

Abstract:

Resilience Engineering is a new paradigm of safety management that proposes to change the way of managing the safety to focus on the things that go well instead of the things that go wrong. Many complex and high-risk sectors such as air traffic control, health care, nuclear power plants, railways or emergencies, have applied this new vision of safety and have obtained very positive results. In the construction sector, safety management continues to be a problem as indicated by the statistics of occupational injuries worldwide. Therefore, it is important to improve safety management in this sector. For this reason, it is proposed to apply Resilience Engineering to the construction sector. The Construction Phase Health and Safety Plan emerges as a key element for the planning of safety management. One of the key tools of Resilience Engineering is the Resilience Assessment Grid that allows measuring the four essential abilities (respond, monitor, learn and anticipate) for resilient performance. The purpose of this paper is to develop a questionnaire based on the Resilience Assessment Grid, specifically on the ability to learn, to assess whether a Construction Phase Health and Safety Plans helps companies in a construction site to implement this ability. The research process was divided into four stages: (i) initial design of a questionnaire, (ii) validation of the content of the questionnaire, (iii) redesign of the questionnaire and (iii) application of the Delphi method. The questionnaire obtained could be used as a tool to help construction companies to evolve from Safety-I to Safety-II. In this way, companies could begin to develop the ability to learn, which will serve as a basis for the development of the other abilities necessary for resilient performance. The following steps in this research are intended to develop other questions that allow evaluating the rest of abilities for resilient performance such as monitoring, learning and anticipating.

Keywords: Resilience engineering, construction sector, resilience assessment grid, construction phase health and safety plan.

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30 Exploring Socio-Economic Barriers of Green Entrepreneurship in Iran and Their Interactions Using Interpretive Structural Modeling

Authors: Younis Jabarzadeh, Rahim Sarvari, Negar Ahmadi Alghalandis

Abstract:

Entrepreneurship at both individual and organizational level is one of the most driving forces in economic development and leads to growth and competition, job generation and social development. Especially in developing countries, the role of entrepreneurship in economic and social prosperity is more emphasized. But the effect of global economic development on the environment is undeniable, especially in negative ways, and there is a need to rethink current business models and the way entrepreneurs act to introduce new businesses to address and embed environmental issues in order to achieve sustainable development. In this paper, green or sustainable entrepreneurship is addressed in Iran to identify challenges and barriers entrepreneurs in the economic and social sectors face in developing green business solutions. Sustainable or green entrepreneurship has been gaining interest among scholars in recent years and addressing its challenges and barriers need much more attention to fill the gap in the literature and facilitate the way those entrepreneurs are pursuing. This research comprised of two main phases: qualitative and quantitative. At qualitative phase, after a thorough literature review, fuzzy Delphi method is utilized to verify those challenges and barriers by gathering a panel of experts and surveying them. In this phase, several other contextually related factors were added to the list of identified barriers and challenges mentioned in the literature. Then, at the quantitative phase, Interpretive Structural Modeling is applied to construct a network of interactions among those barriers identified at the previous phase. Again, a panel of subject matter experts comprised of academic and industry experts was surveyed. The results of this study can be used by policymakers in both the public and industry sector, to introduce more systematic solutions to eliminate those barriers and help entrepreneurs overcome challenges of sustainable entrepreneurship. It also contributes to the literature as the first research in this type which deals with the barriers of sustainable entrepreneurship and explores their interaction.

Keywords: Green entrepreneurship, barriers, Fuzzy Delphi Method, interpretive structural modeling.

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29 Determination of the Content of Teachers’ Presentism through a Web-Based Delphi Method

Authors: Tsai-Hsiu Lin

Abstract:

Presentism is one of the orientations of teachers’ teaching culture. However, there are few researchers to explore it in Taiwan. The objective of this study is to establish an expert-based determination of the content of teachers’ presentism in Taiwan. The author reviewed the works of Jackson, Lortie, and Hargreaves and employed Hargreaves’ three forms of teachers’ presentism as a framework to design the questionnaire of this study. The questionnaire of teachers’ presentism comprised of 42 statements. A three-round web-based Delphi survey was proposed to 14 participants (two teacher educators, two educational administrators, three school principals, and seven schoolteachers), 13 participants (92.86%) completed the three-rounds of the study. The participants were invited to indicate the importance of each statement. The Delphi study used means and standard deviation to present information concerning the collective judgments of respondents. Finally, the author obtained consensual results for 67% (28/42). However, the outcome of this study could be the result of identifying a series of general statements rather than an in-depth exposition of the topic.

Keywords: Delphi Technique, teachers’ presentism, sociology of teaching, teaching culture.

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28 Study on Changes of Land Use impacting the Process of Urbanization, by Using Landsat Data in African Regions: A Case Study in Kigali, Rwanda

Authors: Delphine Mukaneza, Lin Qiao, Wang Pengxin, Li Yan, Chen Yingyi

Abstract:

Human activities on land use make the land-cover gradually change or transit. In this study, we examined the use of Landsat TM data to detect the land use change of Kigali between 1987 and 2009 using remote sensing techniques and analysis of data using ENVI and ArcGIS, a GIS software. Six different categories of land use were distinguished: bare soil, built up land, wetland, water, vegetation, and others. With remote sensing techniques, we analyzed land use data in 1987, 1999 and 2009, changed areas were found and a dynamic situation of land use in Kigali city was found during the 22 years studied. According to relevant Landsat data, the research focused on land use change in accordance with the role of remote sensing in the process of urbanization. The result of the work has shown the rapid increase of built up land between 1987 and 1999 and a big decrease of vegetation caused by the rebuild of the city after the 1994 genocide, while in the period of 1999 to 2009 there was a reduction in built up land and vegetation, after the authority of Kigali city established, a Master Plan where all constructions which were not in the range of the master Plan were destroyed. Rwanda's capital, Kigali City, through the expansion of the urban area, it is increasing the internal employment rate and attracts business investors and the service sector to improve their economy, which will increase the population growth and provide a better life. The overall planning of the city of Kigali considers the environment, land use, infrastructure, cultural and socio-economic factors, the economic development and population forecast, urban development, and constraints specification. To achieve the above purpose, the Government has set for the overall planning of city Kigali, different stages of the detailed description of the design, strategy and action plan that would guide Kigali planners and members of the public in the future to have more detailed regional plans and practical measures. Thus, land use change is significantly the performance of Kigali active human area, which plays an important role for the country to take certain decisions. Another area to take into account is the natural situation of Kigali city. Agriculture in the region does not occupy a dominant position, and with the population growth and socio-economic development, the construction area will gradually rise and speed up the process of urbanization. Thus, as a developing country, Rwanda's population continues to grow and there is low rate of utilization of land, where urbanization remains low. As mentioned earlier, the 1994 genocide massacres, population growth and urbanization processes, have been the factors driving the dramatic changes in land use. The focus on further research would be on analysis of Rwanda’s natural resources, social and economic factors that could be, the driving force of land use change.

Keywords: Land use change, urbanization, Kigali City, Landsat.

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27 Assessment of the Situation and the Cause of Junk Food Consumption in Iranians: A Qualitative Study

Authors: A. Rezazadeh, B Damari, S. Riazi-Esfahani, M. Hajian

Abstract:

The consumption of junk food in Iran is alarmingly increasing. This study aimed to investigate the influencing factors of junk food consumption and amendable interventions that are criticized and approved by stakeholders, in order to presented to health policy makers. The articles and documents related to the content of study were collected by using the appropriate key words such as junk food, carbonated beverage, chocolate, candy, sweets, industrial fruit juices, potato chips, French fries, puffed corn, cakes, biscuits, sandwiches, prepared foods and popsicles, ice cream, bar, chewing gum, pastilles and snack, in scholar.google.com, pubmed.com, eric.ed.gov, cochrane.org, magiran.com, medlib.ir, irandoc.ac.ir, who.int, iranmedex.com, sid.ir, pubmed.org and sciencedirect.com databases. The main key points were extracted and included in a checklist and qualitatively analyzed. Then a summarized abstract was prepared in a format of a questionnaire to be presented to stakeholders. The design of this was qualitative (Delphi). According to this method, a questionnaire was prepared based on reviewing the articles and documents and it was emailed to stakeholders, who were asked to prioritize and choose the main problems and effective interventions. After three rounds, consensus was obtained.            Studies revealed high consumption of junk foods in the Iranian population, especially in children and adolescents. The most important affecting factors include availability, low price, media advertisements, preference of fast foods taste, the variety of the packages and their attractiveness, low awareness and changing in lifestyle. Main interventions recommended by stakeholders include developing a protective environment, educational interventions, increasing healthy food access and controlling media advertisements and putting pressure from the Industry and Mining Ministry on producers to produce healthy snacks. According to the findings, the results of this study may be proposed to public health policymakers as an advocacy paper and to be integrated in the interventional programs of Health and Education ministries and the media. Also, implementation of supportive meetings with the producers of alternative healthy products is suggested.

Keywords: Junk foods, situation, qualitative study, Iran.

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26 Heritage Tree Expert Assessment and Classification: Malaysian Perspective

Authors: B.-Y.-S. Lau, Y.-C.-T. Jonathan, M.-S. Alias

Abstract:

Heritage trees are natural large, individual trees with exceptionally value due to association with age or event or distinguished people. In Malaysia, there is an abundance of tropical heritage trees throughout the country. It is essential to set up a repository of heritage trees to prevent valuable trees from being cut down. In this cross domain study, a web-based online expert system namely the Heritage Tree Expert Assessment and Classification (HTEAC) is developed and deployed for public to nominate potential heritage trees. Based on the nomination, tree care experts or arborists would evaluate and verify the nominated trees as heritage trees. The expert system automatically rates the approved heritage trees according to pre-defined grades via Delphi technique. Features and usability test of the expert system are presented. Preliminary result is promising for the system to be used as a full scale public system.

Keywords: Arboriculture, Delphi, expert system, heritage tree, urban forestry.

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25 The Appraisal of Construction Sites Productivity: In Kendall’s Concordance

Authors: Abdulkadir Abu Lawal

Abstract:

For the dearth of reliable cardinal numerical data, the linked phenomena in productivity indices such as operational costs and company turnovers, etc. could not be investigated. This would not give us insight to the root of productivity problems at unique sites. So, ordinal ranking by professionals who were most directly involved with construction sites was applied for Kendall’s concordance. Responses gathered from independent architects, builders/engineers, and quantity surveyors were herein analyzed. They were responses based on factors that affect sites productivity, and these factors were categorized as head office factors, resource management effectiveness factors, motivational factors, and training/skill development factors. It was found that productivity is low and has to be improved in order to facilitate Nigerian efforts in bridging its infrastructure deficit. The significance of this work is underlined with the Kendall’s coefficient of concordance of 0.78, while remedial measures must be emphasized to stimulate better productivity. Further detailed study can be undertaken by using Fuzzy logic analysis on wider Delphi survey.

Keywords: Factors, Kendall’s coefficient of concordance, magnitude of agreement, percentage magnitude of dichotomy, ranking variables.

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24 A Study of the Planning and Designing of the Built Environment under the Green Transit-Oriented Development

Authors: Wann-Ming Wey

Abstract:

In recent years, the problems of global climate change and natural disasters have induced the concerns and attentions of environmental sustainability issues for the public. Aside from the environmental planning efforts done for human environment, Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) has been widely used as one of the future solutions for the sustainable city development. In order to be more consistent with the urban sustainable development, the development of the built environment planning based on the concept of Green TOD which combines both TOD and Green Urbanism is adapted here. The connotation of the urban development under the green TOD including the design toward environment protect, the maximum enhancement resources and the efficiency of energy use, use technology to construct green buildings and protected areas, natural ecosystems and communities linked, etc. Green TOD is not only to provide the solution to urban traffic problems, but to direct more sustainable and greener consideration for future urban development planning and design. In this study, we use both the TOD and Green Urbanism concepts to proceed to the study of the built environment planning and design. Fuzzy Delphi Technique (FDT) is utilized to screen suitable criteria of the green TOD. Furthermore, Fuzzy Analytic Network Process (FANP) and Quality Function Deployment (QFD) were then developed to evaluate the criteria and prioritize the alternatives. The study results can be regarded as the future guidelines of the built environment planning and designing under green TOD development in Taiwan.

Keywords: Green transit-oriented development, built environment, fuzzy Delphi technique, quality function deployment, fuzzy analytic network process.

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23 Exploring Social Impact of Emerging Technologies from Futuristic Data

Authors: Heeyeul Kwon, Yongtae Park

Abstract:

Despite the highly touted benefits, emerging technologies have unleashed pervasive concerns regarding unintended and unforeseen social impacts. Thus, those wishing to create safe and socially acceptable products need to identify such side effects and mitigate them prior to the market proliferation. Various methodologies in the field of technology assessment (TA), namely Delphi, impact assessment, and scenario planning, have been widely incorporated in such a circumstance. However, literatures face a major limitation in terms of sole reliance on participatory workshop activities. They unfortunately missed out the availability of a massive untapped data source of futuristic information flooding through the Internet. This research thus seeks to gain insights into utilization of futuristic data, future-oriented documents from the Internet, as a supplementary method to generate social impact scenarios whilst capturing perspectives of experts from a wide variety of disciplines. To this end, network analysis is conducted based on the social keywords extracted from the futuristic documents by text mining, which is then used as a guide to produce a comprehensive set of detailed scenarios. Our proposed approach facilitates harmonized depictions of possible hazardous consequences of emerging technologies and thereby makes decision makers more aware of, and responsive to, broad qualitative uncertainties.

Keywords: Emerging technologies, futuristic data, scenario, text mining.

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22 Anthocyanin Complex: Characterization and Cytotoxicity Studies

Authors: Sucharat Limsitthichaikoon, Kedsarin Saodaeng, Aroonsri Priprem, Teerasak Damrongrungruang

Abstract:

Complexation of anthocyanins to mimic natural copigmentation process was investigated. Cyanidin-rich extracts from Zea mays L. ceritina Kulesh. and delphinidin-rich extracts from Clitoria ternatea L. were used to form 4 anthocyanin complexes, AC1, AC2, AC3 and AC4, in the presence of several polyphenols and a trace metal. Characterizations of the ACs were conducted by UV, FTIR, DSC/TGA and morphological observations. Bathochromic shifts of the UV spectra of 4 formulas of ACs were observed at peak wavelengths of about 510-620 nm by 10 nm suggesting complex formation. FTIR spectra of the ACs indicate shifts of peaks from 1,733 cm-1 to 1,696 cm-1 indicating interactions and a decrease in the peak areas within the wavenumber of 3,400-3,500 cm-1 indicating changes in hydrogen bonding. Thermal analysis of all of the ACs suggests increases in melting temperature after complexation. AC with the highest melting temperature was morphologically observed by SEM and TEM to be crystal-like particles within a range of 50 to 200 nm. Particle size analysis of the AC by laser diffraction gave a range of 50-600 nm, indicating aggregation. This AC was shown to have no cytotoxic effect on cultured HGEPp0.5 and HGF (all p> 0.05) by MTT. Therefore, complexation of anthocyanins was simple and self-assembly process, potentially resulting in nanosized particles of anthocyanin complex.

Keywords: Anthocyanins, complexation, purple corn cops, butterfly pea, physicochemical characteristics, cytotoxicity.

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21 Identifying Mitigation Plans in Reducing Usability Risk Using Delphi Method

Authors: Jayaletchumi T. Sambantha Moorthy, Suhaimi bin Ibrahim, Mohd Naz’ri Mahrin

Abstract:

Most quality models have defined usability as a significant factor that leads to improving product acceptability, increasing user satisfaction, improving product reliability, and also financially benefitting companies. Usability is also the best factor that balances both the technical and human aspects of a software product, which is an important aspect in defining quality during software development process. A usability risk consist risk factors that could impact the usability of a software product thereby contributing to negative user experiences and causing a possible software product failure. Hence, it is important to mitigate and reduce usability risks in the software development process itself. By managing possible usability risks in software development process, failure of software product could be reduced. Therefore, this research uses the Delphi method to identify mitigation plans for reducing potential usability risks. The Delphi method is conducted with seven experts from the field of risk management and software development.

Keywords: Usability, Usability Risk, Risk Management, Risk Mitigation, Delphi Method.

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20 The Critical Success Factors for Effective ICT Governance in Malaysian Public Sector: A Delphi Study

Authors: Rosida Ab. Razak, Mohamad Shanudin Zakaria

Abstract:

The fundamental issues in ICT Governance (ICTG) implementation for Malaysian Public Sector (MPS) is how ICT be applied to support improvements in productivity, management effectiveness and the quality of services offered to its citizens. Our main concern is to develop and adopt a common definition and framework to illustrate how ICTG can be used to better align ICT with government’s operations and strategic focus. In particular, we want to identify and categorize factors that drive a successful ICTG process. This paper presents the results of an exploratory study to identify, validate and refine such Critical Success Factors (CSFs) and confirmed seven CSFs and nineteen sub-factors as influential factors that fit MPS after further validated and refined. The Delphi method applied in validation and refining process before being endorsed as appropriate for MPS. The identified CSFs reflect the focus areas that need to be considered strategically to strengthen ICT Governance implementation and ensure business success.

Keywords: IT Governance, Critical Success Factors.

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19 The Application of Dynamic Network Process to Environment Planning Support Systems

Authors: Wann-Ming Wey

Abstract:

In recent years, in addition to face the external threats such as energy shortages and climate change, traffic congestion and environmental pollution have become anxious problems for many cities. Considering private automobile-oriented urban development had produced many negative environmental and social impacts, the transit-oriented development (TOD) has been considered as a sustainable urban model. TOD encourages public transport combined with friendly walking and cycling environment designs, however, non-motorized modes help improving human health, energy saving, and reducing carbon emissions. Due to environmental changes often affect the planners’ decision-making; this research applies dynamic network process (DNP) which includes the time dependent concept to promoting friendly walking and cycling environmental designs as an advanced planning support system for environment improvements.

This research aims to discuss what kinds of design strategies can improve a friendly walking and cycling environment under TOD. First of all, we collate and analyze environment designing factors by reviewing the relevant literatures as well as divide into three aspects of “safety”, “convenience”, and “amenity” from fifteen environment designing factors. Furthermore, we utilize fuzzy Delphi Technique (FDT) expert questionnaire to filter out the more important designing criteria for the study case. Finally, we utilized DNP expert questionnaire to obtain the weights changes at different time points for each design criterion. Based on the changing trends of each criterion weight, we are able to develop appropriate designing strategies as the reference for planners to allocate resources in a dynamic environment. In order to illustrate the approach we propose in this research, Taipei city as one example has been used as an empirical study, and the results are in depth analyzed to explain the application of our proposed approach.

Keywords: Environment Planning Support Systems, Walking and Cycling, Transit-oriented Development (TOD), Dynamic Network Process (DNP).

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18 Identification of Critical Success Factors in Non-Formal Service Sector Using Delphi Technique

Authors: Amol A. Talankar, Prakash Verma, Nitin Seth

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to identify the critical success factors (CSFs) for the effective implementation of Six Sigma in non-formal service Sectors.

Based on the survey of literature, the critical success factors (CSFs) for Six Sigma have been identified and are assessed for their importance in Non-formal service sector using Delphi Technique. These selected CSFs were put forth to the panel of expert to cluster them and prepare cognitive map to establish their relationship.

All the critical success factors examined and obtained from the review of literature have been assessed for their importance with respect to their contribution to Six Sigma effectiveness in non formal service sector.

The study is limited to the non-formal service sectors involved in the organization of religious festival only. However, the similar exercise can be conducted for broader sample of other non-formal service sectors like temple/ashram management, religious tours management etc.

The research suggests an approach to identify CSFs of Six Sigma for Non-formal service sector. All the CSFs of the formal service sector will not be applicable to Non-formal services, hence opinion of experts was sought to add or delete the CSFs. In the first round of Delphi, the panel of experts has suggested, two new CSFs-“competitive benchmarking (F19) and resident’s involvement (F28)”, which were added for assessment in the next round of Delphi.  One of the CSFs-“fulltime six sigma personnel (F15)” has been omitted in proposed clusters of CSFs for non-formal organization, as it is practically impossible to deploy full time trained Six Sigma recruits.

Keywords: Critical success factors (CSFs), Quality assurance, non-formal service sectors, Six Sigma.

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17 Ranking of the Main Criteria for Contractor Selection Procedures on Major Construction Projects in Libya Using the Delphi Method

Authors: Othoman Elsayah, Naren Gupta, Binsheng Zhang

Abstract:

The construction sector constitutes one of the most important sectors in the economy of any country. Contractor selection is a critical decision that is undertaken by client organizations and is central to the success of any construction project. Contractor selection (CS) is a process which involves investigating, screening and determining whether candidate contractors have the technical and financial capability to be accepted to formally tender for construction work. The process should be conducted prior to the award of contract, characterized by many factors such as: contactor’s skills, experience on similar projects, track- record in the industry, and financial stability. However, this paper evaluates the current state of knowledge in relation to contractor selection process and demonstrates the findings from the analysis of the data collected from the Delphi questionnaire survey. The survey was conducted with a group of 12 experts working in the Libyan construction industry (LCI). The paper starts by briefly explaining the general outline of the questionnaire including the survey participation rate, the different fields the experts came from, and the business titles of the participants. Then the paper describes the tests used to determine when the experts had reached consensus. The paper is based on research which aims to develop rank contractor selection criteria with specific application to make construction projects in the Libyan context. The findings of this study will be utilized to establish the scope of work that will be used as part of a PhD research.

Keywords: Contractor selection, Libyan construction industry, Decision experts and Delphi technique.

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16 A Study of Priority Evaluation and Resource Allocation for Revitalization of Cultural Heritages in the Urban Development

Authors: Wann-Ming Wey, Yi-Chih Huang

Abstract:

Proper maintenance and preservation of significant cultural heritages or historic buildings is necessary. It can not only enhance environmental benefits and a sense of community, but also preserve a city's history and people’s memory. It allows the next generation to be able to get a glimpse of our past, and achieve the goal of sustainable preserved cultural assets. However, the management of maintenance work has not been appropriate for many designated heritages or historic buildings so far. The planning and implementation of the reuse has yet to have a breakthrough specification. It leads the heritages to a mere formality of being “reserved”, instead of the real meaning of “conservation”. For the restoration and preservation of cultural heritages study issues, it is very important due to the consideration of historical significance, symbolism, and economic benefits effects. However, the decision makers such as the officials from public sector they often encounter which heritage should be prioritized to be restored first under the available limited budgets. Only very few techniques are available today to determine the appropriately restoration priorities for the diverse historical heritages, perhaps because of a lack of systematized decision-making aids been proposed before. In the past, the discussions of management and maintenance towards cultural assets were limited to the selection of reuse alternatives instead of the allocation of resources. In view of this, this research will adopt some integrated research methods to solve the existing problems that decision-makers might encounter when allocating resources in the management and maintenance of heritages and historic buildings.

The purpose of this study is to develop a sustainable decision making model for local governments to resolve these problems. We propose an alternative decision support model to prioritize restoration needs within the limited budgets. The model is constructed based on fuzzy Delphi, fuzzy analysis network process (FANP) and goal programming (GP) methods. In order to avoid misallocate resources; this research proposes a precise procedure that can take multi-stakeholders views, limited costs and resources into consideration. Also, the combination of many factors and goals has been taken into account to find the highest priority and feasible solution results. To illustrate the approach we propose in this research, seven cultural heritages in Taipei city as one example has been used as an empirical study, and the results are in depth analyzed to explain the application of our proposed approach.

Keywords: Cultural Heritage, Historic Buildings, Priority Evaluation, Multi-Criteria Decision Making, Goal Programming, Fuzzy Analytic Network Process, Resource Allocation.

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15 Controlling of Load Elevators by the Fuzzy Logic Method

Authors: Ismail Saritas, Abdullah Adiyaman

Abstract:

In this study, a fuzzy-logic based control system was designed to ensure that time and energy is saved during the operation of load elevators which are used during the construction of tall buildings. In the control system that was devised, for the load elevators to work more efficiently, the energy interval where the motor worked was taken as the output variable whereas the amount of load and the building height were taken as input variables. The most appropriate working intervals depending on the characteristics of these variables were defined by the help of an expert. Fuzzy expert system software was formed using Delphi programming language. In this design, mamdani max-min inference mechanism was used and the centroid method was employed in the clarification procedure. In conclusion, it is observed that the system that was designed is feasible and this is supported by statistical analyses..

Keywords: Fuzzy Logic Control, DC Motor, Load Elevators, Power Control.

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14 Exploring Inter-Relationships between Events to Identify Strategic Technological Competencies: A Combined Approach

Authors: Cláudio Santos, Madalena Araújo, Nuno Correia

Abstract:

The inherent complexity in nowadays- business environments is forcing organizations to be attentive to the dynamics in several fronts. Therefore, the management of technological innovation is continually faced with uncertainty about the future. These issues lead to a need for a systemic perspective, able to analyze the consequences of interactions between different factors. The field of technology foresight has proposed methods and tools to deal with this broader perspective. In an attempt to provide a method to analyze the complex interactions between events in several areas, departing from the identification of the most strategic competencies, this paper presents a methodology based on the Delphi method and Quality Function Deployment. This methodology is applied in a sheet metal processing equipment manufacturer, as a case study.

Keywords: Competencies, Delphi Method, Quality Function Deployment, Technology Foresight.

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13 Plant Location Selection by Using a Three-Step Methodology: Delphi-AHP-VIKOR

Authors: B. Vahdani, S. M. Mousavi, R. Tavakkoli-Moghaddam

Abstract:

Nowadays, the plant location selection has a critical impact on the performance of numerous companies. In this paper, a methodology is presented to solve this problem. The three decision making methods, namely Delphi, AHP and improved VIKOR, are hybridized in order to make the best use of information available based on the decision makers or experts. In this respect, the aim of using Delphi is to select the most influential criteria by a few decision makers. The AHP is utilized to give weights of the selected criteria. Finally, the improved VIKOR method is applied to rank alternatives. At the end of paper, an application example demonstrates the applicability of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: Decision making, Plant location selection, Delphi, AHP, Improved VIKOR.

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12 A Study of Development to Take for the Enterprise of the Critical Success Factors in the Taiwan Szuchung Creek Hot Springs

Authors: Jui-Liang Hsu

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of the development of Szuchung Creek take for the cause of the critical success factors, This research is to use the depth interviews, document analysis and Modified-Delphi technique survey of nine depth interviews with experts and 14 experts of Modified-Delphi technique questionnaire and inviting as the research object, Szuchung Creek Hot Springs for the scope of the study. The results show, Szuchung Creek Hot Springs development take for career success factors for the following reasons: 1. Government. 2. Opportunities. 3. Factors of production. 4. Demand conditions. 5. Corporate structure and the degree of competition. 6. Related and supporting industries. Furthermore, Szuchung Creek hot springs, itself already has a number of critical success factors. Contingent less than or inadequacies by Szuchung Creek take for the enterprise development to take for the cause of the critical success factors as the basis for correcting, planning out for local use improvement strategies to achieve the objective of sustainable management.

Keywords: Hot spring industry, Critical Success Fators, Szuchung Creek, Take for the enterprise, Modified-Delphi technique, Hot Spring Areas.

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11 Assessment of Green and Smart IT Level: A Case Study on Public Research Institute

Authors: Han-Gook Kim, Dong-Suk Hong

Abstract:

As the latest advancement and trend in IT field, Green & Smart IT has attracted more and more attentions from researchers. This study focuses on the development of assessing tools which can be used for evaluating Green & Smart IT level within an organization. In order to achieve meaningful results, a comprehensive review of relevant literature was performed in advance, then, Delphi survey and other processes were also employed to develop the assessment tools for Green & Smart IT level. Two rounds of Delphi questionnaire survey were conducted with 20 IT experts in public sector. The results reveal that the top five weighted KPIs to evaluate maturity of Green & Smart IT were: (1) electronic execution of business process; (2) shutdown of unused IT devices; (3) virtualization of severs; (4) automation of constant temperature and humidity; and (5) introduction of smart-work system. Finally, these tools were applied to case study of a public research institute in Korea. The findings presented in this study provide organizations with useful implications for the introduction and promotion of Green & Smart IT in the future

Keywords: Assessment, Case Study, Delphi, Green & Smart

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10 Ahiska Turks in Philadelphia: Keeping Cultural Identity and Religion in a Multicultural Environment

Authors: Kenan Cetinkaya, Semanur Kodan

Abstract:

Ahiska Turks in the Philadelphia area maintain a very complex, cultural heritage which they have carried with them for centuries from Georgia to Uzbekistan then Russia and lastly to the USA. While facing very severe conditions in the last half of the last century, their passion for their language, religion and tradition allowed them to keep their cultural identity. In the paper, the Ahiska Turks’ sorrowful story is reviewed and their struggle with keeping their identity in a multicultural environment of the USA is examined in the context of the Philadelphia area.

Keywords: Ahiska Turks, identity, integration, Philadelphia, Turkish

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9 The Effect of e-learning on the Promotion of Optoelectronics Technology and Daily Livings Literacy among Students in Universities of Technology

Authors: Chin-Pin Chen, David W.S. Tai, Wen-Jong Chen, Hui-Min Lai

Abstract:

This study aims to analyze the effect of e-learning on photonics technology and daily livings among college students. The course contents of photonics technology and daily livings are first drafted based on research discussions and expert interviews. Having expert questionnaires with Delphi Technique for three times, the knowledge units and items for the course of photonics technology and daily livings are established. The e-learning materials and the drafts of instructional strategies, academic achievement, and learning attitude scales are then developed. With expert inspection, reliability and validity test, and experimental instructions, the scales and the material are further revised. Finally, the formal instructions are implemented to test the effect of different instructional methods on the academic achievement of photonics technology and daily livings among students in universities of technology. The research results show that e-learning could effectively promote academic achievement and learning attitude, and the students with e-learning obviously outperform the ones with trandition instructions.

Keywords: E-learning, Photonics Technology and Daily Livings, Academic Achievement

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8 The Establishment of Cause-System of Poor Construction Site Safety and Priority Analysis from Different Perspectives

Authors: Shirong Li, Xueping Xiang

Abstract:

Construction site safety in China has aroused comprehensive concern all over the world. It is imperative to investigate the main causes of poor construction site safety. This paper divides all the causes into four aspects, namely the factors of workers, object, environment and management and sets up the accident causes element system based on Delphi Method. This is followed by the application of structural equation modeling to examine the importance of each aspect of causes from the standpoints of different roles related to the construction respectively. The results indicate that all the four aspects of factors are in need of improvement, and different roles have different ideas considering the priority of those factors. The paper has instructive significance for the practitioners to take measures to improve construction site safety in China accordingly.

Keywords: construction site safety, Delphi Method, structuralequation modeling, different perspective.

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7 Agile Index: Automotive Supply Chain

Authors: Susana G. Azevedo, Helena Carvalho, V. Cruz –Machado

Abstract:

The supply chains (SCs) have to appeal to new management paradigms to improve their ability to respond rapidly and cost effectively to unpredictable changes in markets and increasing levels of environmental turbulence, both in terms of volume and variety. In this highly demanded context, the Agile paradigm provides the capabilities to SC quickly adapt to changes in the market requirements. The purpose of this paper is to suggest an Agile Index to assess the agility of the automotive companies and corresponding SCs. The proposed integrated assessment model incorporates Agile practices weighted according to their importance to the automotive SC competitiveness and obtained from the Delphi technique.

Keywords: Agile, Supply chain management, Index, Delphitechnique.

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