Search results for: Markov parameters

Authors: V.Manikandan, N.Devarajan

Abstract:

The main objective of this work is to provide a fault detection and isolation based on Markov parameters for residual generation and a neural network for fault classification. The diagnostic approach is accomplished in two steps: In step 1, the system is identified using a series of input / output variables through an identification algorithm. In step 2, the fault is diagnosed comparing the Markov parameters of faulty and non faulty systems. The Artificial Neural Network is trained using predetermined faulty conditions serves to classify the unknown fault. In step 1, the identification is done by first formulating a Hankel matrix out of Input/ output variables and then decomposing the matrix via singular value decomposition technique. For identifying the system online sliding window approach is adopted wherein an open slit slides over a subset of 'n' input/output variables. The faults are introduced at arbitrary instances and the identification is carried out in online. Fault residues are extracted making a comparison of the first five Markov parameters of faulty and non faulty systems. The proposed diagnostic approach is illustrated on benchmark problems with encouraging results.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, Fault Diagnosis, Identification, Markov parameters.

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Authors: Boukelkoul Lahcen

Abstract:

The cumulative costs for O&M may represent as much as 65%-90% of the turbine's investment cost. Nowadays the cost effectiveness concept becomes a decision-making and technology evaluation metric. The cost of energy metric accounts for the effect replacement cost and unscheduled maintenance cost parameters. One key of the proposed approach is the idea of maintaining the WTs which can be captured via use of a finite state Markov chain. Such a model can be embedded within a probabilistic operation and maintenance simulation reflecting the action to be done. In this paper, an approach of estimating the cost of O&M is presented. The finite state Markov model is used for decision problems with number of determined periods (life cycle) to predict the cost according to various options of maintenance.

Keywords: Cost, finite state, Markov model, operation, maintenance.

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Authors: Jaroslav Polec, Viliam Hirner, Michal Martinovič, Kvetoslava Kotuliaková

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In this paper we present a novel error model for packet loss and subsequent error description. The proposed model simulates the error performance of wireless communication link. The model is designed as two independent Markov chains, where the first one is used for packet generation and the second one generates correctly and incorrectly transmitted bits for received packets from the first chain. The statistical analyses of real communication on the wireless link are used for determination of model-s parameters. Using the obtained parameters and the implementation of the generator, we collected generated traffic. The obtained results generated by proposed model are compared with the real data collection.

Keywords: Wireless channel, error model, Markov chain, Elliot model, Gilbert model, generator, IEEE 802.11.

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Authors: Chao Wang, Ting-Zhu Huang, Chen Jia

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a simplified higher-order Markov chain model for multiple categorical data sequences also called as simplified higher-order multivariate Markov chain model.

Keywords: Higher-order multivariate Markov chain model, Categorical data sequences, Multivariate Markov chain.

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Authors: Dali Zhang, Baoqun Yin, Hongsheng Xi

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a single sample path based algorithm with state aggregation to optimize the average rewards of singularly perturbed Markov reward processes (SPMRPs) with a large scale state spaces. It is assumed that such a reward process depend on a set of parameters. Differing from the other kinds of Markov chain, SPMRPs have their own hierarchical structure. Based on this special structure, our algorithm can alleviate the load in the optimization for performance. Moreover, our method can be applied on line because of its evolution with the sample path simulated. Compared with the original algorithm applied on these problems of general MRPs, a new gradient formula for average reward performance metric in SPMRPs is brought in, which will be proved in Appendix, and then based on these gradients, the schedule of the iteration algorithm is presented, which is based on a single sample path, and eventually a special case in which parameters only dominate the disturbance matrices will be analyzed, and a precise comparison with be displayed between our algorithm with the old ones which is aim to solve these problems in general Markov reward processes. When applied in SPMRPs, our method will approach a fast pace in these cases. Furthermore, to illustrate the practical value of SPMRPs, a simple example in multiple programming in computer systems will be listed and simulated. Corresponding to some practical model, physical meanings of SPMRPs in networks of queues will be clarified.

Keywords: Singularly perturbed Markov processes, Gradient of average reward, Differential reward, State aggregation, Perturbed close network.

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Authors: Shilpi Lavania, Deepak Nagaria

Abstract:

A mixed method for model order reduction is presented in this paper. The denominator polynomial is derived by matching both Markov parameters and time moments, whereas numerator polynomial derivation and error minimization is done using Genetic Algorithm. The efficiency of the proposed method can be investigated in terms of closeness of the response of reduced order model with respect to that of higher order original model and a comparison of the integral square error as well.

Keywords: Model Order Reduction (MOR), control theory, Markov parameters, time moments, genetic algorithm, Single Input Single Output (SISO).

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Authors: Anastasia Rita Widiarti, Phalita Nari Wastu

Abstract:

Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a stochastic method which has been used in various signal processing and character recognition. This study proposes to use HMM to recognize Javanese characters from a number of different handwritings, whereby HMM is used to optimize the number of state and feature extraction. An 85.7 % accuracy is obtained as the best result in 16-stated vertical model using pure HMM. This initial result is satisfactory for prompting further research.

Keywords: Character recognition, off-line handwritingrecognition, Hidden Markov Model.

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Authors: Ehsan Amid, Sina Rezaei Aghdam

Abstract:

In this paper, a novel method for recognition of musical instruments in a polyphonic music is presented by using an embedded hidden Markov model (EHMM). EHMM is a doubly embedded HMM structure where each state of the external HMM is an independent HMM. The classification is accomplished for two different internal HMM structures where GMMs are used as likelihood estimators for the internal HMMs. The results are compared to those achieved by an artificial neural network with two hidden layers. Appropriate classification accuracies were achieved both for solo instrument performance and instrument combinations which demonstrates that the new approach outperforms the similar classification methods by means of the dynamic of the signal.

Keywords: hidden Markov model (HMM), embedded hidden Markov models (EHMM), MFCC, musical instrument.

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Authors: Zina Benouaret, Djamil Aissani

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In this work, we introduce the qualitative and quantitative concept of the strong stability method in the risk process modeling two lines of business of the same insurance company or an insurance and re-insurance companies that divide between them both claims and premiums with a certain proportion. The approach proposed is based on the identification of the ruin probability associate to the model considered, with a stationary distribution of a Markov random process called a reversed process. Our objective, after clarifying the condition and the perturbation domain of parameters, is to obtain the stability inequality of the ruin probability which is applied to estimate the approximation error of a model with disturbance parameters by the considered model. In the stability bound obtained, all constants are explicitly written.

Keywords: Markov chain, risk models, ruin probabilities, strong stability analysis.

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Authors: Jeng-Shin Sheu, Jenn-Kaie Lain, Tai-Kuo Woo, Jyh-Horng Wen

Abstract:

The least mean square (LMS) algorithmis one of the most well-known algorithms for mobile communication systems due to its implementation simplicity. However, the main limitation is its relatively slow convergence rate. In this paper, a booster using the concept of Markov chains is proposed to speed up the convergence rate of LMS algorithms. The nature of Markov chains makes it possible to exploit the past information in the updating process. Moreover, since the transition matrix has a smaller variance than that of the weight itself by the central limit theorem, the weight transition matrix converges faster than the weight itself. Accordingly, the proposed Markov-chain based booster thus has the ability to track variations in signal characteristics, and meanwhile, it can accelerate the rate of convergence for LMS algorithms. Simulation results show that the LMS algorithm can effectively increase the convergence rate and meantime further approach the Wiener solution, if the Markov-chain based booster is applied. The mean square error is also remarkably reduced, while the convergence rate is improved.

Keywords: LMS, Markov chain, convergence rate, accelerator.

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Authors: Abdelali Joumad, Abdelaziz Nasroallah

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In unsupervised segmentation context, we propose a bi-dimensional hidden Markov chain model (X,Y) that we adapt to the image segmentation problem. The bi-dimensional observed process Y = (Y 1, Y 2) is such that Y 1 represents the noisy image and Y 2 represents a noisy supplementary information on the image, for example a noisy proportion of pixels of the same type in a neighborhood of the current pixel. The proposed model can be seen as a competitive alternative to the Hilbert-Peano scan. We propose a bayesian algorithm to estimate parameters of the considered model. The performance of this algorithm is globally favorable, compared to the bi-dimensional EM algorithm through numerical and visual data.

Keywords: Image segmentation, Hidden Markov chain with a bi-dimensional observed process, Peano-Hilbert scan, Bayesian approach, MCMC methods, Bi-dimensional EM algorithm.

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Authors: Nam Lethanh, Bryan T. Adey

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In this paper, the potential use of an exponential hidden Markov model to model a hidden pavement deterioration process, i.e. one that is not directly measurable, is investigated. It is assumed that the evolution of the physical condition, which is the hidden process, and the evolution of the values of pavement distress indicators, can be adequately described using discrete condition states and modeled as a Markov processes. It is also assumed that condition data can be collected by visual inspections over time and represented continuously using an exponential distribution. The advantage of using such a model in decision making process is illustrated through an empirical study using real world data.

Keywords: Deterioration modeling, Exponential distribution, Hidden Markov model, Pavement management

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Authors: Suparman

Abstract:

Piecewise polynomial regression model is very flexible model for modeling the data. If the piecewise polynomial regression model is matched against the data, its parameters are not generally known. This paper studies the parameter estimation problem of piecewise polynomial regression model. The method which is used to estimate the parameters of the piecewise polynomial regression model is Bayesian method. Unfortunately, the Bayes estimator cannot be found analytically. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed to solve this problem. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain that converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of piecewise polynomial regression model parameter. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of piecewise polynomial regression model.

Keywords: Piecewise, Bayesian, reversible jump MCMC, segmentation.

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Authors: Hong Son Hoang, Remy Baraille

Abstract:

This paper addresses the problem of how one can improve the performance of a non-optimal filter. First the theoretical question on dynamical representation for a given time correlated random process is studied. It will be demonstrated that for a wide class of random processes, having a canonical form, there exists a dynamical system equivalent in the sense that its output has the same covariance function. It is shown that the dynamical approach is more effective for simulating and estimating a Markov and non- Markovian random processes, computationally is less demanding, especially with increasing of the dimension of simulated processes. Numerical examples and estimation problems in low dimensional systems are given to illustrate the advantages of the approach. A very useful application of the proposed approach is shown for the problem of state estimation in very high dimensional systems. Here a modified filter for data assimilation in an oceanic numerical model is presented which is proved to be very efficient due to introducing a simple Markovian structure for the output prediction error process and adaptive tuning some parameters of the Markov equation.

Keywords: Statistical simulation, canonical form, dynamical system, Markov and non-Markovian processes, data assimilation.

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Authors: Refaat M Mohamed, Ayman El-Baz, Aly A. Farag

Abstract:

This paper introduces a novel approach to estimate the clique potentials of Gibbs Markov random field (GMRF) models using the Support Vector Machines (SVM) algorithm and the Mean Field (MF) theory. The proposed approach is based on modeling the potential function associated with each clique shape of the GMRF model as a Gaussian-shaped kernel. In turn, the energy function of the GMRF will be in the form of a weighted sum of Gaussian kernels. This formulation of the GMRF model urges the use of the SVM with the Mean Field theory applied for its learning for estimating the energy function. The approach has been tested on synthetic texture images and is shown to provide satisfactory results in retrieving the synthesizing parameters.

Keywords: Image Modeling, MRF, Parameters Estimation, SVM Learning.

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Authors: Rajneesh Sharma, M. Gopal

Abstract:

Markov games are a generalization of Markov decision process to a multi-agent setting. Two-player zero-sum Markov game framework offers an effective platform for designing robust controllers. This paper presents two novel controller design algorithms that use ideas from game-theory literature to produce reliable controllers that are able to maintain performance in presence of noise and parameter variations. A more widely used approach for controller design is the H∞ optimal control, which suffers from high computational demand and at times, may be infeasible. Our approach generates an optimal control policy for the agent (controller) via a simple Linear Program enabling the controller to learn about the unknown environment. The controller is facing an unknown environment, and in our formulation this environment corresponds to the behavior rules of the noise modeled as the opponent. Proposed controller architectures attempt to improve controller reliability by a gradual mixing of algorithmic approaches drawn from the game theory literature and the Minimax-Q Markov game solution approach, in a reinforcement-learning framework. We test the proposed algorithms on a simulated Inverted Pendulum Swing-up task and compare its performance against standard Q learning.

Keywords: Reinforcement learning, Markov Decision Process, Matrix Games, Markov Games, Smooth Fictitious play, Controller, Inverted Pendulum.

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Authors: Chun Wen, Tingzhu Huang

Abstract:

We present a new numerical method for the computation of the steady-state solution of Markov chains. Theoretical analyses show that the proposed method, with a contraction factor α, converges to the one-dimensional null space of singular linear systems of the form Ax = 0. Numerical experiments are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, with applications to a class of interesting models in the domain of tandem queueing networks.

Keywords: Markov chains, tandem queueing networks, convergence, effectiveness.

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Authors: Terrence Chen, Thomas S. Huang

Abstract:

In this paper, we present the region based hidden Markov random field model (RBHMRF), which encodes the characteristics of different brain regions into a probabilistic framework for brain MR image segmentation. The recently proposed TV+L1 model is used for region extraction. By utilizing different spatial characteristics in different brain regions, the RMHMRF model performs beyond the current state-of-the-art method, the hidden Markov random field model (HMRF), which uses identical spatial information throughout the whole brain. Experiments on both real and synthetic 3D MR images show that the segmentation result of the proposed method has higher accuracy compared to existing algorithms.

Keywords: Finite Gaussian mixture model, Hidden Markov random field model, image segmentation, MRI.

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Authors: Zöhre Kara Kayikci, Günther Palm

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A word recognition architecture based on a network of neural associative memories and hidden Markov models has been developed. The input stream, composed of subword-units like wordinternal triphones consisting of diphones and triphones, is provided to the network of neural associative memories by hidden Markov models. The word recognition network derives words from this input stream. The architecture has the ability to handle ambiguities on subword-unit level and is also able to add new words to the vocabulary during performance. The architecture is implemented to perform the word recognition task in a language processing system for understanding simple command sentences like “bot show apple".

Keywords: Hebbian learning, hidden Markov models, neuralassociative memories, word recognition.

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Authors: Yi Yu, Lin Ma, Yong Sun, Yuantong Gu

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This paper presents a novel method for remaining useful life prediction using the Elliptical Basis Function (EBF) network and a Markov chain. The EBF structure is trained by a modified Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm in order to take into account the missing covariate set. No explicit extrapolation is needed for internal covariates while a Markov chain is constructed to represent the evolution of external covariates in the study. The estimated external and the unknown internal covariates constitute an incomplete covariate set which are then used and analyzed by the EBF network to provide survival information of the asset. It is shown in the case study that the method slightly underestimates the remaining useful life of an asset which is a desirable result for early maintenance decision and resource planning.

Keywords: Elliptical Basis Function Network, Markov Chain, Missing Covariates, Remaining Useful Life

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Authors: Akram Khaleghei Ghosheh Balagh, Viliam Makis

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In this paper, we investigate the residual life prediction problem for a partially observable system subject to two failure modes, namely a catastrophic failure and a failure due to the system degradation. The system is subject to condition monitoring and the degradation process is described by a hidden Markov model with unknown parameters. The parameter estimation procedure based on an EM algorithm is developed and the formulas for the conditional reliability function and the mean residual life are derived, illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: Partially observable system, hidden Markov model, competing risks, residual life prediction.

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Authors: N. Sopipan, A. Intarasit, K. Chuarkham

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 In this paper, we forecast the volatility of Baht/USDs using Markov Regime Switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) models. These models allow volatility to have different dynamics according to unobserved regime variables. The main purpose of this paper is to find out whether MRS-GARCH models are an improvement on the GARCH type models in terms of modeling and forecasting Baht/USD volatility. The MRS-GARCH is the best performance model for Baht/USD volatility in short term but the GARCH model is best perform for long term.

Keywords: Volatility, Markov Regime Switching, Forecasting.

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Authors: Pavan K. Rallabandi, Kailash C. Patidar

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In this paper, we present an optimization technique or a learning algorithm using the hybrid architecture by combining the most popular sequence recognition models such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Hidden Markov models (HMMs). In order to improve the sequence/pattern recognition/classification performance by applying a hybrid/neural symbolic approach, a gradient descent learning algorithm is developed using the Real Time Recurrent Learning of Recurrent Neural Network for processing the knowledge represented in trained Hidden Markov Models. The developed hybrid algorithm is implemented on automata theory as a sample test beds and the performance of the designed algorithm is demonstrated and evaluated on learning the deterministic finite state automata.

Keywords: Hybrid systems, Hidden Markov Models, Recurrent neural networks, Deterministic finite state automata.

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Authors: S. Panda, S. K. Tomar, R. Prasad, C. Ardil

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Order reduction of linear-time invariant systems employing two methods; one using the advantages of Routh approximation and other by an evolutionary technique is presented in this paper. In Routh approximation method the denominator of the reduced order model is obtained using Routh approximation while the numerator of the reduced order model is determined using the indirect approach of retaining the time moments and/or Markov parameters of original system. By this method the reduced order model guarantees stability if the original high order model is stable. In the second method Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is employed to reduce the higher order model. PSO method is based on the minimization of the Integral Squared Error (ISE) between the transient responses of original higher order model and the reduced order model pertaining to a unit step input. Both the methods are illustrated through numerical examples.

Keywords: Model Order Reduction, Markov Parameters, Routh Approximation, Particle Swarm Optimization, Integral Squared Error, Steady State Stability.

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Authors: A. Bayaga

Abstract:

This research provides a technical account of estimating Transition Probability using Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process applying by South African HIV/AIDS data from the Statistics South Africa. It employs Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) model to explore the possible influence of Transition Probability of mortality cases in which case the data was based on actual Statistics South Africa. This was conducted via an integrated demographic and epidemiological model of South African HIV/AIDS epidemic. The model was fitted to age-specific HIV prevalence data and recorded death data using MLE model. Though the previous model results suggest HIV in South Africa has declined and AIDS mortality rates have declined since 2002 – 2013, in contrast, our results differ evidently with the generally accepted HIV models (Spectrum/EPP and ASSA2008) in South Africa. However, there is the need for supplementary research to be conducted to enhance the demographic parameters in the model and as well apply it to each of the nine (9) provinces of South Africa.

Keywords: AIDS mortality rates, Epidemiological model, Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process, Transition Probability, Statistics South Africa.

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Authors: Yina F. Muñoz, Alexander Paz, Hanns De La Fuente-Mella, Joaquin V. Fariña, Guilherme M. Sales

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The primary approach for estimating bridge deterioration uses Markov-chain models and regression analysis. Traditional Markov models have problems in estimating the required transition probabilities when a small sample size is used. Often, reliable bridge data have not been taken over large periods, thus large data sets may not be available. This study presents an important change to the traditional approach by using the Small Data Method to estimate transition probabilities. The results illustrate that the Small Data Method and traditional approach both provide similar estimates; however, the former method provides results that are more conservative. That is, Small Data Method provided slightly lower than expected bridge condition ratings compared with the traditional approach. Considering that bridges are critical infrastructures, the Small Data Method, which uses more information and provides more conservative estimates, may be more appropriate when the available sample size is small. In addition, regression analysis was used to calculate bridge deterioration. Condition ratings were determined for bridge groups, and the best regression model was selected for each group. The results obtained were very similar to those obtained when using Markov chains; however, it is desirable to use more data for better results.

Keywords: Concrete bridges, deterioration, Markov chains, probability matrix.

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Authors: Y. K. Chen, K. C. Chiou, C. Y. Chen

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The cumulative conformance count (CCC) charts are widespread in process monitoring of high-yield manufacturing. Recently, it is found the use of variable sampling interval (VSI) scheme could further enhance the efficiency of the standard CCC charts. The average time to signal (ATS) a shift in defect rate has become traditional measure of efficiency of a chart with the VSI scheme. Determining the ATS is frequently a difficult and tedious task. A simple method based on a finite Markov Chain approach for modeling the ATS is developed. In addition, numerical results are given.

Keywords: Cumulative conformance count, variable sampling interval, Markov Chain, average time to signal, control chart.

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Authors: Armin Ghayoori, Faramarz Hendessi, Asrar Sheikh

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In developing a text-to-speech system, it is well known that the accuracy of information extracted from a text is crucial to produce high quality synthesized speech. In this paper, a new scheme for converting text into its equivalent phonetic spelling is introduced and developed. This method is applicable to many applications in text to speech converting systems and has many advantages over other methods. The proposed method can also complement the other methods with a purpose of improving their performance. The proposed method is a probabilistic model and is based on Smooth Ergodic Hidden Markov Model. This model can be considered as an extension to HMM. The proposed method is applied to Persian language and its accuracy in converting text to speech phonetics is evaluated using simulations.

Keywords: Hidden Markov Models, text, synthesis.

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Authors: Akram Khaleghei Ghosheh Balagh, Viliam Makis, Leila Jafari

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In this paper, we present a new maintenance model for a partially observable system subject to two failure modes, namely a catastrophic failure and a failure due to the system degradation. The system is subject to condition monitoring and the degradation process is described by a hidden Markov model. A cost-optimal Bayesian control policy is developed for maintaining the system. The control problem is formulated in the semi-Markov decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm is developed, illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: Partially observable system, hidden Markov model, competing risks, multivariate Bayesian control.

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Authors: Metehan Makinacı

Abstract:

The objective of this paper, is to apply support vector machine (SVM) approach for the classification of cancerous and normal regions of prostate images. Three kinds of textural features are extracted and used for the analysis: parameters of the Gauss- Markov random field (GMRF), correlation function and relative entropy. Prostate images are acquired by the system consisting of a microscope, video camera and a digitizing board. Cross-validated classification over a database of 46 images is implemented to evaluate the performance. In SVM classification, sensitivity and specificity of 96.2% and 97.0% are achieved for the 32x32 pixel block sized data, respectively, with an overall accuracy of 96.6%. Classification performance is compared with artificial neural network and k-nearest neighbor classifiers. Experimental results demonstrate that the SVM approach gives the best performance.

Keywords: Computer-aided diagnosis, support vector machines, Gauss-Markov random fields, texture classification.

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