Search results for: event rules
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 783

Search results for: event rules

783 Proposition for a New Approach of Version Control System Based On ECA Active Rules

Authors: S. Benhamed, S. Hocine, D. Benhamamouch

Abstract:

We try to give a solution of version control for documents in web service, that-s why we propose a new approach used specially for the XML documents. The new approach is applied in a centralized repository, this repository coexist with other repositories in a decentralized system. To achieve the activities of this approach in a standard model we use the ECA active rules. We also show how the Event-Condition-Action rules (ECA rules) have been incorporated as a mechanism for the version control of documents. The need to integrate ECA rules is that it provides a clear declarative semantics and induces an immediate operational realization in the system without the need for human intervention.

Keywords: ECA Rule, Web service, version control system, propagation.

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782 Event Monitoring Based On Web Services for Heterogeneous Event Sources

Authors: Arne Koschel

Abstract:

This article discusses event monitoring options for heterogeneous event sources as they are given in nowadays heterogeneous distributed information systems. It follows the central assumption, that a fully generic event monitoring solution cannot provide complete support for event monitoring; instead, event source specific semantics such as certain event types or support for certain event monitoring techniques have to be taken into account. Following from this, the core result of the work presented here is the extension of a configurable event monitoring (Web) service for a variety of event sources. A service approach allows us to trade genericity for the exploitation of source specific characteristics. It thus delivers results for the areas of SOA, Web services, CEP and EDA.

Keywords: Event monitoring, ECA, CEP, SOA, Web services.

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781 Chinese Event Detection Technique Based on Dependency Parsing and Rule Matching

Authors: Weitao Lin

Abstract:

To quickly extract adequate information from large-scale unstructured text data, this paper studies the representation of events in Chinese scenarios and performs the regularized abstraction. It proposes a Chinese event detection technique based on dependency parsing and rule matching. The method first performs dependency parsing on the original utterance, then performs pattern matching at the word or phrase granularity based on the results of dependent syntactic analysis, filters out the utterances with prominent non-event characteristics, and obtains the final results. The experimental results show the effectiveness of the method.

Keywords: Natural Language Processing, Chinese event detection, rules matching, dependency parsing.

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780 Post Mining- Discovering Valid Rules from Different Sized Data Sources

Authors: R. Nedunchezhian, K. Anbumani

Abstract:

A big organization may have multiple branches spread across different locations. Processing of data from these branches becomes a huge task when innumerable transactions take place. Also, branches may be reluctant to forward their data for centralized processing but are ready to pass their association rules. Local mining may also generate a large amount of rules. Further, it is not practically possible for all local data sources to be of the same size. A model is proposed for discovering valid rules from different sized data sources where the valid rules are high weighted rules. These rules can be obtained from the high frequency rules generated from each of the data sources. A data source selection procedure is considered in order to efficiently synthesize rules. Support Equalization is another method proposed which focuses on eliminating low frequency rules at the local sites itself thus reducing the rules by a significant amount.

Keywords: Association rules, multiple data stores, synthesizing, valid rules.

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779 Event Monitoring Web Services for Heterogeneous Information Systems

Authors: Arne Koschel, Irina Astrova

Abstract:

Heterogeneity has to be taken into account when integrating a set of existing information sources into a distributed information system that are nowadays often based on Service- Oriented Architectures (SOA). This is also particularly applicable to distributed services such as event monitoring, which are useful in the context of Event Driven Architectures (EDA) and Complex Event Processing (CEP). Web services deal with this heterogeneity at a technical level, also providing little support for event processing. Our central thesis is that such a fully generic solution cannot provide complete support for event monitoring; instead, source specific semantics such as certain event types or support for certain event monitoring techniques have to be taken into account. Our core result is the design of a configurable event monitoring (Web) service that allows us to trade genericity for the exploitation of source specific characteristics. It thus delivers results for the areas of SOA, Web services, CEP and EDA.

Keywords: ECA, CEP, SOA, and Web services.

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778 Ontologies for Complex Event Processing

Authors: Irina Astrova, Arne Koschel, Jan Lukanowski, Jose Luis Munoz Martinez, Valerij Procenko, Marc Schaaf

Abstract:

In this paper, five ontologies are described, which include the event concepts. The paper provides an overview and comparison of existing event models. The main criteria for comparison are that there should be possibilities to model events with stretch in the time and location and participation of objects; however, there are other factors that should be taken into account as well. The paper also shows an example of using ontologies in complex event processing.

Keywords: Ontologies, events, complex event processing (CEP).

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777 Generating Speq Rules based on Automatic Proof of Logical Equivalence

Authors: Katsunori Miura, Kiyoshi Akama, Hiroshi Mabuchi

Abstract:

In the Equivalent Transformation (ET) computation model, a program is constructed by the successive accumulation of ET rules. A method by meta-computation by which a correct ET rule is generated has been proposed. Although the method covers a broad range in the generation of ET rules, all important ET rules are not necessarily generated. Generation of more ET rules can be achieved by supplementing generation methods which are specialized for important ET rules. A Specialization-by-Equation (Speq) rule is one of those important rules. A Speq rule describes a procedure in which two variables included in an atom conjunction are equalized due to predicate constraints. In this paper, we propose an algorithm that systematically and recursively generate Speq rules and discuss its effectiveness in the synthesis of ET programs. A Speq rule is generated based on proof of a logical formula consisting of given atom set and dis-equality. The proof is carried out by utilizing some ET rules and the ultimately obtained rules in generating Speq rules.

Keywords: Equivalent transformation, ET rule, Equation of two variables, Rule generation, Specialization-by-Equation rule

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776 Optimising Business Rules in the Services Sector

Authors: Alan Dormer

Abstract:

Business rules are widely used within the services sector. They provide consistency and allow relatively unskilled staff to process complex transactions correctly. But there are many examples where the rules themselves have an impact on the costs and profits of an organisation. Financial services, transport and human services are areas where the rules themselves can impact the bottom line in a predictable way. If this is the case, how can we find that set of rules that maximise profit, performance or customer service, or any other key performance indicators? The manufacturing, energy and process industries have embraced mathematical optimisation techniques to improve efficiency, increase production and so on. This paper explores several real world (but simplified) problems in the services sector and shows how business rules can be optimised. It also examines the similarities and differences between the service and other sectors, and how optimisation techniques could be used to deliver similar benefits.

Keywords: Business rules, services, optimisation.

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775 Semi-Automatic Method to Assist Expert for Association Rules Validation

Authors: Amdouni Hamida, Gammoudi Mohamed Mohsen

Abstract:

In order to help the expert to validate association rules extracted from data, some quality measures are proposed in the literature. We distinguish two categories: objective and subjective measures. The first one depends on a fixed threshold and on data quality from which the rules are extracted. The second one consists on providing to the expert some tools in the objective to explore and visualize rules during the evaluation step. However, the number of extracted rules to validate remains high. Thus, the manually mining rules task is very hard. To solve this problem, we propose, in this paper, a semi-automatic method to assist the expert during the association rule's validation. Our method uses rule-based classification as follow: (i) We transform association rules into classification rules (classifiers), (ii) We use the generated classifiers for data classification. (iii) We visualize association rules with their quality classification to give an idea to the expert and to assist him during validation process.

Keywords: Association rules, Rule-based classification, Classification quality, Validation.

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774 Investigations on Some Operations of Soft Sets

Authors: Xun Ge, Songlin Yang

Abstract:

Soft set theory was initiated by Molodtsov in 1999. In the past years, this theory had been applied to many branches of mathematics, information science and computer science. In 2003, Maji et al. introduced some operations of soft sets and gave some operational rules. Recently, some of these operational rules are pointed out to be not true. Furthermore, Ali et al., in their paper, introduced and discussed some new operations of soft sets. In this paper, we further investigate these operational rules given by Maji et al. and Ali et al.. We obtain some sufficient-necessary conditions such that corresponding operational rules hold and give correct forms for some operational rules. These results will be help for us to use rightly operational rules of soft sets in research and application of soft set theory.

Keywords: Soft sets, union, intersection, complement.

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773 Event Template Generation for News Articles

Authors: A. Kowcika, E. Umamaheswari, T.V. Geetha

Abstract:

In this paper we focus on event extraction from Tamil news article. This system utilizes a scoring scheme for extracting and grouping event-specific sentences. Using this scoring scheme eventspecific clustering is performed for multiple documents. Events are extracted from each document using a scoring scheme based on feature score and condition score. Similarly event specific sentences are clustered from multiple documents using this scoring scheme. The proposed system builds the Event Template based on user specified query. The templates are filled with event specific details like person, location and timeline extracted from the formed clusters. The proposed system applies these methodologies for Tamil news articles that have been enconverted into UNL graphs using a Tamil to UNL-enconverter. The main intention of this work is to generate an event based template.

Keywords: Event Extraction, Score based Clustering, Segmentation, Template Generation.

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772 Remarks on Some Properties of Decision Rules

Authors: Songlin Yang, Ying Ge

Abstract:

This paper shows that some properties of the decision rules in the literature do not hold by presenting a counterexample. We give sufficient and necessary conditions under which these properties are valid. These results will be helpful when one tries to choose the right decision rules in the research of rough set theory.

Keywords: set, Decision table, Decision rule, coverage factor.

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771 Discovery of Fuzzy Censored Production Rules from Large Set of Discovered Fuzzy if then Rules

Authors: Tamanna Siddiqui, M. Afshar Alam

Abstract:

Censored Production Rule is an extension of standard production rule, which is concerned with problems of reasoning with incomplete information, subject to resource constraints and problem of reasoning efficiently with exceptions. A CPR has a form: IF A (Condition) THEN B (Action) UNLESS C (Censor), Where C is the exception condition. Fuzzy CPR are obtained by augmenting ordinary fuzzy production rule “If X is A then Y is B with an exception condition and are written in the form “If X is A then Y is B Unless Z is C. Such rules are employed in situation in which the fuzzy conditional statement “If X is A then Y is B" holds frequently and the exception condition “Z is C" holds rarely. Thus “If X is A then Y is B" part of the fuzzy CPR express important information while the unless part acts only as a switch that changes the polarity of “Y is B" to “Y is not B" when the assertion “Z is C" holds. The proposed approach is an attempt to discover fuzzy censored production rules from set of discovered fuzzy if then rules in the form: A(X) ÔçÆ B(Y) || C(Z).

Keywords: Uncertainty Quantification, Fuzzy if then rules, Fuzzy Censored Production Rules, Learning algorithm.

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770 Sensitizing Rules for Fuzzy Control Charts

Authors: N. Pekin Alakoç, A. Apaydın

Abstract:

Quality control charts indicate out of control conditions if any nonrandom pattern of the points is observed or any point is plotted beyond the control limits. Nonrandom patterns of Shewhart control charts are tested with sensitizing rules. When the processes are defined with fuzzy set theory, traditional sensitizing rules are insufficient for defining all out of control conditions. This is due to the fact that fuzzy numbers increase the number of out of control conditions. The purpose of the study is to develop a set of fuzzy sensitizing rules, which increase the flexibility and sensitivity of fuzzy control charts. Fuzzy sensitizing rules simplify the identification of out of control situations that results in a decrease in the calculation time and number of evaluations in fuzzy control chart approach.

Keywords: Fuzzy set theory, Quality control charts, Run Rules, Unnatural patterns.

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769 Intelligent Agents for Distributed Intrusion Detection System

Authors: M. Benattou, K. Tamine

Abstract:

This paper presents a distributed intrusion detection system IDS, based on the concept of specialized distributed agents community representing agents with the same purpose for detecting distributed attacks. The semantic of intrusion events occurring in a predetermined network has been defined. The correlation rules referring the process which our proposed IDS combines the captured events that is distributed both spatially and temporally. And then the proposed IDS tries to extract significant and broad patterns for set of well-known attacks. The primary goal of our work is to provide intrusion detection and real-time prevention capability against insider attacks in distributed and fully automated environments.

Keywords: Mobile agent, specialized agent, interpreter agent, event rules, correlation.

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768 Effective Scheduling of Semiconductor Manufacturing using Simulation

Authors: Ingy A. El-Khouly, Khaled S. El-Kilany, Aziz E. El-Sayed

Abstract:

The process of wafer fabrication is arguably the most technologically complex and capital intensive stage in semiconductor manufacturing. This large-scale discrete-event process is highly reentrant, and involves hundreds of machines, restrictions, and processing steps. Therefore, production control of wafer fabrication facilities (fab), specifically scheduling, is one of the most challenging problems that this industry faces. Dispatching rules have been extensively applied to the scheduling problems in semiconductor manufacturing. Moreover, lot release policies are commonly used in this manufacturing setting to further improve the performance of such systems and reduce its inherent variability. In this work, simulation is used in the scheduling of re-entrant flow shop manufacturing systems with an application in semiconductor wafer fabrication; where, a simulation model has been developed for the Intel Five-Machine Six Step Mini-Fab using the ExtendTM simulation environment. The Mini-Fab has been selected as it captures the challenges involved in scheduling the highly re-entrant semiconductor manufacturing lines. A number of scenarios have been developed and have been used to evaluate the effect of different dispatching rules and lot release policies on the selected performance measures. Results of simulation showed that the performance of the Mini-Fab can be drastically improved using a combination of dispatching rules and lot release policy.

Keywords: Dispatching rules, lot release policy, re-entrant flowshop, semiconductor manufacturing.

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767 Novelty as a Measure of Interestingness in Knowledge Discovery

Authors: Vasudha Bhatnagar, Ahmed Sultan Al-Hegami, Naveen Kumar

Abstract:

Rule Discovery is an important technique for mining knowledge from large databases. Use of objective measures for discovering interesting rules leads to another data mining problem, although of reduced complexity. Data mining researchers have studied subjective measures of interestingness to reduce the volume of discovered rules to ultimately improve the overall efficiency of KDD process. In this paper we study novelty of the discovered rules as a subjective measure of interestingness. We propose a hybrid approach based on both objective and subjective measures to quantify novelty of the discovered rules in terms of their deviations from the known rules (knowledge). We analyze the types of deviation that can arise between two rules and categorize the discovered rules according to the user specified threshold. We implement the proposed framework and experiment with some public datasets. The experimental results are promising.

Keywords: Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD), Interestingness, Subjective Measures, Novelty Index.

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766 Mining Association Rules from Unstructured Documents

Authors: Hany Mahgoub

Abstract:

This paper presents a system for discovering association rules from collections of unstructured documents called EART (Extract Association Rules from Text). The EART system treats texts only not images or figures. EART discovers association rules amongst keywords labeling the collection of textual documents. The main characteristic of EART is that the system integrates XML technology (to transform unstructured documents into structured documents) with Information Retrieval scheme (TF-IDF) and Data Mining technique for association rules extraction. EART depends on word feature to extract association rules. It consists of four phases: structure phase, index phase, text mining phase and visualization phase. Our work depends on the analysis of the keywords in the extracted association rules through the co-occurrence of the keywords in one sentence in the original text and the existing of the keywords in one sentence without co-occurrence. Experiments applied on a collection of scientific documents selected from MEDLINE that are related to the outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza virus.

Keywords: Association rules, information retrieval, knowledgediscovery in text, text mining.

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765 Modeling and Analyzing the WAP Class 2 Wireless Transaction Protocol Using Event-B

Authors: Rajaa Filali, Mohamed Bouhdadi

Abstract:

This paper presents an incremental formal development of the Wireless Transaction Protocol (WTP) in Event-B. WTP is part of the Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) architectures and provides a reliable request-response service. To model and verify the protocol, we use the formal technique Event-B which provides an accessible and rigorous development method. This interaction between modelling and proving reduces the complexity and helps to eliminate misunderstandings, inconsistencies, and specification gaps. As result, verification of WTP allows us to find some deficiencies in the current specification.

Keywords: Event-B, wireless transaction protocol, refinement, proof obligation, Rodin, ProB.

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764 A Hybrid Approach for Quantification of Novelty in Rule Discovery

Authors: Vasudha Bhatnagar, Ahmed Sultan Al-Hegami, Naveen Kumar

Abstract:

Rule Discovery is an important technique for mining knowledge from large databases. Use of objective measures for discovering interesting rules lead to another data mining problem, although of reduced complexity. Data mining researchers have studied subjective measures of interestingness to reduce the volume of discovered rules to ultimately improve the overall efficiency of KDD process. In this paper we study novelty of the discovered rules as a subjective measure of interestingness. We propose a hybrid approach that uses objective and subjective measures to quantify novelty of the discovered rules in terms of their deviations from the known rules. We analyze the types of deviation that can arise between two rules and categorize the discovered rules according to the user specified threshold. We implement the proposed framework and experiment with some public datasets. The experimental results are quite promising.

Keywords: Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD), Data Mining, Rule Discovery, Interestingness, Subjective Measures, Novelty Measure.

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763 Business Rules for Data Warehouse

Authors: Rajeev Kaula

Abstract:

Business rules and data warehouse are concepts and technologies that impact a wide variety of organizational tasks. In general, each area has evolved independently, impacting application development and decision-making. Generating knowledge from data warehouse is a complex process. This paper outlines an approach to ease import of information and knowledge from a data warehouse star schema through an inference class of business rules. The paper utilizes the Oracle database for illustrating the working of the concepts. The star schema structure and the business rules are stored within a relational database. The approach is explained through a prototype in Oracle-s PL/SQL Server Pages.

Keywords: Business Rules, Data warehouse, PL/SQL ServerPages, Relational model, Web Application.

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762 Applying Fuzzy FP-Growth to Mine Fuzzy Association Rules

Authors: Chien-Hua Wang, Wei-Hsuan Lee, Chin-Tzong Pang

Abstract:

In data mining, the association rules are used to find for the associations between the different items of the transactions database. As the data collected and stored, rules of value can be found through association rules, which can be applied to help managers execute marketing strategies and establish sound market frameworks. This paper aims to use Fuzzy Frequent Pattern growth (FFP-growth) to derive from fuzzy association rules. At first, we apply fuzzy partition methods and decide a membership function of quantitative value for each transaction item. Next, we implement FFP-growth to deal with the process of data mining. In addition, in order to understand the impact of Apriori algorithm and FFP-growth algorithm on the execution time and the number of generated association rules, the experiment will be performed by using different sizes of databases and thresholds. Lastly, the experiment results show FFPgrowth algorithm is more efficient than other existing methods.

Keywords: Data mining, association rule, fuzzy frequent patterngrowth.

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761 The Effectiveness of National Fiscal Rules in the Asia-Pacific Countries

Authors: Chiung-Ju Huang, Yuan-Hong Ho

Abstract:

This study utilizes the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Fiscal Rules Dataset focusing on four specific fiscal rules such as expenditure rule, revenue rule, budget balance rule, and debt rule and five main characteristics of each fiscal rule those are monitoring, enforcement, coverage, legal basis, and escape clause to construct the Fiscal Rule Index for nine countries in the Asia-Pacific region from 1996 to 2015. After constructing the fiscal rule index for each country, we utilize the Panel Generalized Method of Moments (Panel GMM) by using the constructed fiscal rule index to examine the effectiveness of fiscal rules in reducing procyclicality. Empirical results show that national fiscal rules have a significantly negative impact on procyclicality of government expenditure. Additionally, stricter fiscal rules combined with high government effectiveness are effective in reducing procyclicality of government expenditure. Results of this study indicate that for nine Asia-Pacific countries, policymakers’ use of fiscal rules and government effectiveness to reducing procyclicality of fiscal policy are effective.

Keywords: Counter-cyclical policy, fiscal rules, government effectiveness, procyclical policy.

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760 Flexible, Adaptable and Scaleable Business Rules Management System for Data Validation

Authors: Kashif Kamran, Farooque Azam

Abstract:

The policies governing the business of any organization are well reflected in her business rules. The business rules are implemented by data validation techniques, coded during the software development process. Any change in business policies results in change in the code written for data validation used to enforce the business policies. Implementing the change in business rules without changing the code is the objective of this paper. The proposed approach enables users to create rule sets at run time once the software has been developed. The newly defined rule sets by end users are associated with the data variables for which the validation is required. The proposed approach facilitates the users to define business rules using all the comparison operators and Boolean operators. Multithreading is used to validate the data entered by end user against the business rules applied. The evaluation of the data is performed by a newly created thread using an enhanced form of the RPN (Reverse Polish Notation) algorithm.

Keywords: Business Rules, data validation, multithreading, Reverse Polish Notation

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759 Event Information Extraction System (EIEE): FSM vs HMM

Authors: Shaukat Wasi, Zubair A. Shaikh, Sajid Qasmi, Hussain Sachwani, Rehman Lalani, Aamir Chagani

Abstract:

Automatic Extraction of Event information from social text stream (emails, social network sites, blogs etc) is a vital requirement for many applications like Event Planning and Management systems and security applications. The key information components needed from Event related text are Event title, location, participants, date and time. Emails have very unique distinctions over other social text streams from the perspective of layout and format and conversation style and are the most commonly used communication channel for broadcasting and planning events. Therefore we have chosen emails as our dataset. In our work, we have employed two statistical NLP methods, named as Finite State Machines (FSM) and Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for the extraction of event related contextual information. An application has been developed providing a comparison among the two methods over the event extraction task. It comprises of two modules, one for each method, and works for both bulk as well as direct user input. The results are evaluated using Precision, Recall and F-Score. Experiments show that both methods produce high performance and accuracy, however HMM was good enough over Title extraction and FSM proved to be better for Venue, Date, and time.

Keywords: Emails, Event Extraction, Event Detection, Finite state machines, Hidden Markov Model.

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758 Discovery of Time Series Event Patterns based on Time Constraints from Textual Data

Authors: Shigeaki Sakurai, Ken Ueno, Ryohei Orihara

Abstract:

This paper proposes a method that discovers time series event patterns from textual data with time information. The patterns are composed of sequences of events and each event is extracted from the textual data, where an event is characteristic content included in the textual data such as a company name, an action, and an impression of a customer. The method introduces 7 types of time constraints based on the analysis of the textual data. The method also evaluates these constraints when the frequency of a time series event pattern is calculated. We can flexibly define the time constraints for interesting combinations of events and can discover valid time series event patterns which satisfy these conditions. The paper applies the method to daily business reports collected by a sales force automation system and verifies its effectiveness through numerical experiments.

Keywords: Text mining, sequential mining, time constraints, daily business reports.

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757 Fail-safe Modeling of Discrete Event Systems using Petri Nets

Authors: P. Nazemzadeh, A. Dideban, M. Zareiee

Abstract:

In this paper the effect of faults in the elements and parts of discrete event systems is investigated. In the occurrence of faults, some states of the system must be changed and some of them must be forbidden. For this goal, different states of these elements are examined and a model for fail-safe behavior of each state is introduced. Replacing new models of the target elements in the preliminary model by a systematic method, leads to a fail-safe discrete event system.

Keywords: Discrete event systems, Fail-safe, Petri nets, Supervisory control.

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756 Using Heuristic Rules from Sentence Decomposition of Experts- Summaries to Detect Students- Summarizing Strategies

Authors: Norisma Idris, Sapiyan Baba, Rukaini Abdullah

Abstract:

Summarizing skills have been introduced to English syllabus in secondary school in Malaysia to evaluate student-s comprehension for a given text where it requires students to employ several strategies to produce the summary. This paper reports on our effort to develop a computer-based summarization assessment system that detects the strategies used by the students in producing their summaries. Sentence decomposition of expert-written summaries is used to analyze how experts produce their summary sentences. From the analysis, we identified seven summarizing strategies and their rules which are then transformed into a set of heuristic rules on how to determine the summarizing strategies. We developed an algorithm based on the heuristic rules and performed some experiments to evaluate and support the technique proposed.

Keywords: Summarizing strategies, heuristic rules, sentencedecomposition.

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755 Induction of Expressive Rules using the Binary Coding Method

Authors: Seyed R Mousavi

Abstract:

In most rule-induction algorithms, the only operator used against nominal attributes is the equality operator =. In this paper, we first propose the use of the inequality operator, , in addition to the equality operator, to increase the expressiveness of induced rules. Then, we present a new method, Binary Coding, which can be used along with an arbitrary rule-induction algorithm to make use of the inequality operator without any need to change the algorithm. Experimental results suggest that the Binary Coding method is promising enough for further investigation, especially in cases where the minimum number of rules is desirable.

Keywords: Data mining, Inequality operator, Number of rules, Rule-induction.

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754 Technical Trading Rules in Emerging Stock Markets

Authors: Stefaan Pauwels, Koen Inghelbrecht, Dries Heyman, Pieter Marius

Abstract:

Literature reveals that many investors rely on technical trading rules when making investment decisions. If stock markets are efficient, one cannot achieve superior results by using these trading rules. However, if market inefficiencies are present, profitable opportunities may arise. The aim of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of technical trading rules in 34 emerging stock markets. The performance of the rules is evaluated by utilizing White-s Reality Check and the Superior Predictive Ability test of Hansen, along with an adjustment for transaction costs. These tests are able to evaluate whether the best model performs better than a buy-and-hold benchmark. Further, they provide an answer to data snooping problems, which is essential to obtain unbiased outcomes. Based on our results we conclude that technical trading rules are not able to outperform a naïve buy-and-hold benchmark on a consistent basis. However, we do find significant trading rule profits in 4 of the 34 investigated markets. We also present evidence that technical analysis is more profitable in crisis situations. Nevertheless, this result is relatively weak.

Keywords: technical trading rules, Reality Check, Superior Predictive Ability, emerging stock markets, data snooping

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