Search results for: Machine frame structure

Authors: E. E. Marschalko, K. Kalcza-Janosi, I. Kotta, B. Bibok

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There is a scarcity of validated instruments in Hungarian for the assessment of self-determination related traits and behaviors. In order to fill in this gap, the aim of this study was the translation, cultural adaptation and validation of Self-Determination Scale (SDS) for the Hungarian population. A total of 4335 adults participated in the study. The mean age of the participants was 27.97 (SD = 9.60). The sample consisted mostly of females, less than 20% were males. Exploratory and Confirmatory Factor Analysis was performed for factorial structure checking and validation Cronbach’s alpha was used to examine the reliability of the factors. Our results revealed that the Hungarian version of SDS has good psychometric properties and it is a reliable tool for psychologists who would like to study or assess self-determination traits in their clients. The adapted and validated Hungarian version of SDS is presented in this paper.

Keywords: self-determination, traits, self-determination scale, awareness of self, perceived choice, adults, Hungarian, psychometric properties

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Authors: Anamika Gupta, Naveen Kumar, Vasudha Bhatnagar

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This paper focuses on analyzing medical diagnostic data using classification rules in data mining and context reduction in formal concept analysis. It helps in finding redundancies among the various medical examination tests used in diagnosis of a disease. Classification rules have been derived from positive and negative association rules using the Concept lattice structure of the Formal Concept Analysis. Context reduction technique given in Formal Concept Analysis along with classification rules has been used to find redundancies among the various medical examination tests. Also it finds out whether expensive medical tests can be replaced by some cheaper tests.

Keywords: Data Mining, Formal Concept Analysis, Medical Data, Negative Classification Rules.

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Authors: Tonislav Ivanov, Oleksii Nedashkivskyi, Denis Babeshko, Vadim Pinskiy, Matthew Putman

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Training a machine learning model for object detection that generalizes well is known to benefit from a training dataset with diverse examples. However, training datasets usually contain many repeats of common examples of a class and lack rarely seen examples. This is due to the process commonly used during human annotation where a person would proceed sequentially through a list of images labeling a sufficiently high total number of examples. Instead, the method presented involves an active process where, after the initial labeling of several images is completed, the next subset of images for labeling is selected by an algorithm. This process of algorithmic image selection and manual labeling continues in an iterative fashion. The algorithm used for the image selection is a deep learning algorithm, based on the U-shaped architecture, which quantifies the presence of unseen data in each image in order to find images that contain the most novel examples. Moreover, the location of the unseen data in each image is highlighted, aiding the labeler in spotting these examples. Experiments performed using semiconductor wafer data show that labeling a subset of the data, curated by this algorithm, resulted in a model with a better performance than a model produced from sequentially labeling the same amount of data. Also, similar performance is achieved compared to a model trained on exhaustive labeling of the whole dataset. Overall, the proposed approach results in a dataset that has a diverse set of examples per class as well as more balanced classes, which proves beneficial when training a deep learning model.

Keywords: Computer vision, deep learning, object detection, semiconductor.

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Authors: Yufu Yin, Tao Lin, Shanghong Zhao, Zihang Zhu, Xuan Li, Wei Jiang, Qiurong Zheng, Hui Wang

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In this paper, a frequency-dependent and tunable phase shifter is proposed and numerically analyzed. The key devices are the dual-polarization binary phase shift keying modulator (DP-BPSK) and the fiber Bragg grating (FBG). The phase-frequency response of the FBG is employed to determine the frequency-dependent phase shift. The simulation results show that a linear phase shift of the recovered output microwave signal which depends on the frequency of the input RF signal is achieved. In addition, by adjusting the power of the RF signal, the full range phase shift from 0° to 360° can be realized. This structure shows the spurious free dynamic range (SFDR) of 70.90 dB·Hz^2/3 and 72.11 dB·Hz^2/3 under different RF powers.

Keywords: Microwave photonics, phase shifter, spurious free dynamic range, frequency-dependent.

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Authors: Pibool Waijittragum

Abstract:

The mosques have been appearance in Thailand since Ayutthaya Kingdom (1350 to 1767 A.D.) Until today, more than 400 years later; there are many styles of art form behind their structure. This research intended to identify Islamic Art in Thai mosques. A framework was applied using qualitative research methods; Thai Muslims with dynamic roles in Islamic culture were interviewed. In addition, a field survey of 40 selected mosques from 175 Thai mosques was studied. Data analysis will be according to the pattern of each period. The identification of Islamic Art in Thai Mosques are 1) the image of Thai identity: with Thai traditional art style and Government policy. 2) The image of the Ethnological identity: with the traditional culture of Asian Muslims in Thailand. 3) The image of the Nostalgia identity: with Islamic and Arabian conservative style. 4) The image of the Neo Classic identity: with Neo – Classic and Contemporary art. 5) The image of the new identity: with Post Modern and Deconstruction art.

Keywords: Islamic Art, Thai Mosques, Floral Arabesque, Geometric Form, Arabic Calligraphy.

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Authors: A. Pourahmad, Sh. Gharipour

Abstract:

The present work describes the preparation and characterization of nanosized SiO₂@PbS core-shell particles by using a simple wet chemical route. This method utilizes silica spheres formation followed by successive ionic layer adsorption and reaction method assisted lead sulphide shell layer formation. The final product was characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), UV–vis spectroscopic, infrared spectroscopy (IR) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) experiments. The morphological studies revealed the uniformity in size distribution with core size of 250 nm and shell thickness of 18 nm. The electron microscopic images also indicate the irregular morphology of lead sulphide shell layer. The structural studies indicate the face-centered cubic system of PbS shell with no other trace for impurities in the crystal structure.

Keywords: Core-shell, nanostructure, semiconductor, optical property, XRD.

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Authors: Pejman Hosseiniun, Rose Shayeghi, Iman Rahbari, Mohamad Reza Kalhor

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CNFET has emerged as an alternative material to silicon for high performance, high stability and low power SRAM design in recent years. SRAM functions as cache memory in computers and many portable devices. In this paper, a new SRAM cell design based on CNFET technology is proposed. The proposed SRAM cell design for CNFET is compared with SRAM cell designs implemented with the conventional CMOS and FinFET in terms of speed, power consumption, stability, and leakage current. The HSPICE simulation and analysis show that the dynamic power consumption of the proposed 8T CNFET SRAM cell’s is reduced about 48% and the SNM is widened up to 56% compared to the conventional CMOS SRAM structure at the expense of 2% leakage power and 3% write delay increase.

Keywords: SRAM cell, CNFET, low power, HSPICE.

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Authors: Eileen M. J. Knight

Abstract:

This study examines the structural and systematic processes of the Human Resources Division at The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago for evidence of incorporation of the University's 2012- 2017 Strategic Plan. In conducting the study the structure of the Human Resources Management Division and its functions were carefully reviewed and measured against the strategic direction of the organisation. Findings indicate disconnect between these areas as there is apparent failure of the Human Resources Division to totally align its mandate with that of the organisation-s strategic direction. This action serves to threaten the viability of the organisation and its efficiency and effectiveness as an institution. The recommendations being put forward are for the realignment of the Human Resources Management Division and for its focus to mirror that of the organisation and the organisation-s goals and objectives. This may entail a restructuring of the Division.

Keywords: Commonwealth Caribbean, Realignment, Region, Strategic Plan.

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Authors: Noboru Wakamoto, Kiyotaka Obunai, Kazuya Okubo, Toru Fujii

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The aim of this study is to moderate the dependence of counter frictional coefficient on temperature between counter surfaces and to reduce the wear of C/C composites at low temperature. To modify the C/C composites, Silica (SiO₂) powders were added into phenolic resin for carbon precursor. The preform plate of the precursor of C/C composites was prepared by conventional filament winding method. The C/C composites plates were obtained by carbonizing preform plate at 2200 °C under an argon atmosphere. At that time, the silicon carbides (SiC) were synthesized around the surfaces and the internal vacancies of the C/C composites. The frictional coefficient on the counter surfaces and specific wear volumes of the C/C composites were measured by our developed frictional test machine like pin-on disk type. The XRD indicated that SiC was synthesized in the body of C/C composite fabricated by current method. The results of friction test showed that coefficient of friction of unmodified C/C composites have temperature dependence when the test condition was changed. In contrast, frictional coefficient of the C/C composite modified with SiO₂ powders was almost constant at about 0.27 when the temperature condition was changed from Room Temperature (RT) to 300 °C. The specific wear rate decreased from 25×10^-6 mm²/N to 0.1×10^-6 mm²/N. The observations of the surfaces after friction tests showed that the frictional surface of the modified C/C composites was covered with a film produced by the friction. This study found that synthesizing SiC around surface and internal vacancies of C/C composites was effective to moderate the dependence on the frictional coefficient and reduce to the abrasion of C/C composites.

Keywords: C/C composites, frictional coefficient, SiC, wear.

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Authors: J. A. Michline Rupa, S. Ganesh

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This paper proposes a backward/forward sweep method to analyze the power flow in radial distribution systems. The distribution system has radial structure and high R/X ratios. So the newton-raphson and fast decoupled methods are failed with distribution system. The proposed method presents a load flow study using backward/forward sweep method, which is one of the most effective methods for the load-flow analysis of the radial distribution system. By using this method, power losses for each bus branch and voltage magnitudes for each bus node are determined. This method has been tested on IEEE 33-bus radial distribution system and effective results are obtained using MATLAB.

Keywords: Backward/Forward sweep method, Distribution system, Load flow analysis.

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Authors: M. Castellano, G. Mastronardi, A. Aprile, G. Tarricone

Abstract:

Text Mining is an important step of Knowledge Discovery process. It is used to extract hidden information from notstructured o semi-structured data. This aspect is fundamental because much of the Web information is semi-structured due to the nested structure of HTML code, much of the Web information is linked, much of the Web information is redundant. Web Text Mining helps whole knowledge mining process to mining, extraction and integration of useful data, information and knowledge from Web page contents. In this paper, we present a Web Text Mining process able to discover knowledge in a distributed and heterogeneous multiorganization environment. The Web Text Mining process is based on flexible architecture and is implemented by four steps able to examine web content and to extract useful hidden information through mining techniques. Our Web Text Mining prototype starts from the recovery of Web job offers in which, through a Text Mining process, useful information for fast classification of the same are drawn out, these information are, essentially, job offer place and skills.

Keywords: Web text mining, flexible architecture, knowledgediscovery.

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Authors: Makoto Sakamoto, Yasuo Uchida, Makoto Nagatomo, Takao Ito, Tsunehiro Yoshinaga, Satoshi Ikeda, Masahiro Yokomichi, Hiroshi Furutani

Abstract:

In theoretical computer science, the Turing machine has played a number of important roles in understanding and exploiting basic concepts and mechanisms in computing and information processing [20]. It is a simple mathematical model of computers [9]. After that, M.Blum and C.Hewitt first proposed two-dimensional automata as a computational model of two-dimensional pattern processing, and investigated their pattern recognition abilities in 1967 [7]. Since then, a lot of researchers in this field have been investigating many properties about automata on a two- or three-dimensional tape. On the other hand, the question of whether processing fourdimensional digital patterns is much more difficult than two- or threedimensional ones is of great interest from the theoretical and practical standpoints. Thus, the study of four-dimensional automata as a computasional model of four-dimensional pattern processing has been meaningful [8]-[19],[21]. This paper introduces a cooperating system of four-dimensional finite automata as one model of four-dimensional automata. A cooperating system of four-dimensional finite automata consists of a finite number of four-dimensional finite automata and a four-dimensional input tape where these finite automata work independently (in parallel). Those finite automata whose input heads scan the same cell of the input tape can communicate with each other, that is, every finite automaton is allowed to know the internal states of other finite automata on the same cell it is scanning at the moment. In this paper, we mainly investigate some accepting powers of a cooperating system of eight- or seven-way four-dimensional finite automata. The seven-way four-dimensional finite automaton is an eight-way four-dimensional finite automaton whose input head can move east, west, south, north, up, down, or in the fu-ture, but not in the past on a four-dimensional input tape.

Keywords: computational complexity, cooperating system, finite automaton, four-dimension, hierarchy, multihead.

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Authors: Min Ho Kwon, Woo Young Jung, Hyun Su Seo

Abstract:

A polymer cement mortar (PCM) has been widely used  as the material of repair and restoration work for concrete structure;  however a PCM usually induces an environmental pollutant.  Therefore, there is a need to develop PCM which is less impact to  environments. Usually, UM resin is known to be harmless to the  environment. Accordingly, in this paper, the properties of the PCM  using UM resin were studied. The general cement mortar and UM  resin were mixed in the specified ratio. A certain percentage of PVA  fibers, steel fibers and mixed fibers (PVA fiber and steel fiber) were  added to enhance the flexural strength. The flexural tests were  performed in order to investigate the flexural strength of each PCM.  Experimental results showed that the strength of proposed PCM using  UM resin is improved when they are compared with general cement  mortar.

 

Keywords: Polymer cement mortar (PCM), UM resin, Compressive strength, PVA fiber, Steel fiber.

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Authors: Stepan Petrosyan, Ashkhen Yesayan, Suren Nersesyan

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We have developed an analytic model for the radial pn-junction in a nanowire (NW) core-shell structure utilizing as a new building block in different semiconductor devices. The potential distribution through the p-n-junction is calculated and the analytical expressions are derived to compute the depletion region widths. We show that the widths of space charge layers, surrounding the core, are the functions of core radius, which is the manifestation of so called classical size effect. The relationship between the depletion layer width and the built-in potential in the asymptotes of infinitely large core radius transforms to square-root dependence specific for conventional planar p-n-junctions. The explicit equation is derived to compute the capacitance of radial p-n-junction. The current-voltage behavior is also carefully determined taking into account the “short base" effects.

Keywords: Snanowire, p-n- junction, barrier capacitance, high injection.

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Authors: R. Ibrahim, M. Azmirruddin, M. Jabir, N. Johari, M. Muhamad, A. R. A. Talib

Abstract:

Inconel718 has been widely used as a super alloy in aerospace application due to the high strength at elevated temperatures, satisfactory oxidation resistance and heat corrosion resistance. In this study, the Inconel718 has been fabricated using high technology of Metal Injection Molding (MIM) process due to the cost effective technique for producing small, complex and precision parts in high volume compared with conventional method through machining. Through MIM, the binder system is one of the most important criteria in order to successfully fabricate the Inconel718. Even though, the binder system is a temporary, but failure in the selection and removal of the binder system will affect on the final properties of the sintered parts. Therefore, the binder system based on palm oil derivative which is palm stearin has been formulated and developed to replace the conventional binder system. The rheological studies of the mixture between the powder and binders system have been determined properly in order to be successful during injection into injection molding machine. After molding, the binder holds the particles in place. The binder system has to be removed completely through debinding step. During debinding step, solvent debinding and thermal pyrolysis has been used to remove completely of the binder system. The debound part is then sintered to give the required physical and mechanical properties. The results show that the properties of the final sintered parts fulfill the Standard Metal Powder Industries Federation (MPIF) 35 for MIM parts.

Keywords: Binder system, rheological study, metal injection molding, debinding and sintered parts.

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Authors: Jeeeun Kim, Sungjoo Lee

Abstract:

This research proposes a methodology for patent-citation-based technology input-output analysis by applying the patent information to input-output analysis developed for the dependencies among different industries. For this analysis, a technology relationship matrix and its components, as well as input and technology inducement coefficients, are constructed using patent information. Then, a technology inducement coefficient is calculated by normalizing the degree of citation from certain IPCs to the different IPCs (International patent classification) or to the same IPCs. Finally, we construct a Dependency Structure Matrix (DSM) based on the technology inducement coefficient to suggest a useful application for this methodology.

Keywords: Technology spillover effect, technology relationship, IO table, technology inducement coefficients, patent analysis, patent citation.

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Authors: Mabel A. Leva

Abstract:

This study defines a methodology to compute unitary costs for freight transportation modes. The main objective was to gather relevant costs data to support the formulation and evaluation of railway, road, pipelines and port projects. This article will concentrate on the following steps: Compilation and analysis of relevant modal cost studies, Methodological adjustments to make cost figures comparable between studies, Definition of typology and scope of transportation modes, Analysis and validation of cost values for relevant freight transportation modes in Chile. In order to define the comparison methodology for the costs between the different transportation modes, it was necessary to consider that the relevant cost depends on who performs the comparison. Thus, for the transportation user (e.g. exporter) the pertinent costs are the mode tariffs, whereas from the operators perspective (e.g. rail manager), the pertinent costs are the operating costs of each mode.

Keywords: Intermodal costs, Logistics, Transportation costs.

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Authors: Piyush Samant, Ravinder Agarwal

Abstract:

Complementary and Alternative Medicine (CAM) techniques are quite popular and effective for chronic diseases. Iridology is more than 150 years old CAM technique which analyzes the patterns, tissue weakness, color, shape, structure, etc. for disease diagnosis. The objective of this paper is to validate the use of iridology for the diagnosis of the diabetes. The suggested model was applied in a systemic disease with ocular effects. 200 subject data of 100 each diabetic and non-diabetic were evaluated. Complete procedure was kept very simple and free from the involvement of any iridologist. From the normalized iris, the region of interest was cropped. All 63 features were extracted using statistical, texture analysis, and two-dimensional discrete wavelet transformation. A comparison of accuracies of six different classifiers has been presented. The result shows 89.66% accuracy by the random forest classifier.

Keywords: Complementary and alternative medicine, Iridology, iris, feature extraction, classification, disease prediction.

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Authors: José M. Merigó, Montserrat Casanovas

Abstract:

We study the problem of decision making with Dempster-Shafer belief structure. We analyze the previous work developed by Yager about using the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator in the aggregation of the Dempster-Shafer decision process. We discuss the possibility of aggregating with an ascending order in the OWA operator for the cases where the smallest value is the best result. We suggest the introduction of the ordered weighted geometric (OWG) operator in the Dempster-Shafer framework. In this case, we also discuss the possibility of aggregating with an ascending order and we find that it is completely necessary as the OWG operator cannot aggregate negative numbers. Finally, we give an illustrative example where we can see the different results obtained by using the OWA, the Ascending OWA (AOWA), the OWG and the Ascending OWG (AOWG) operator.

Keywords: Decision making, aggregation operators, Dempster- Shafer theory of evidence, Uncertainty, OWA operator, OWG operator.

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Authors: E. Moroydor Derun, F. T. Senberber, A. S. Kipcak, N. Tugrul, S. Piskin

Abstract:

Dehydration behavior gives a hint about thermal properties of materials. It is important for the usage areas and transportation of minerals. Magnesium borates can be used as additive materials in areas such as in the production of superconducting materials, in the composition of detergents, due to the content of boron in the friction-reducing additives in oils and insulating coating compositions due to their good mechanic and thermal properties. In this study, thermal dehydration behavior of admontite (MgO(B2O3)3.7(H2O)), which is a kind of magnesium borate mineral, is experimented by microwave energy at 360W. Structure of admontite is suitable for the investigation of dehydration behavior by microwave because of its seven moles of crystal water. It is seen that admontite lost its 28.7% of weight at the end of the 120 minutes heating in microwave furnace. 

Keywords: Admontite, dehydration, magnesium borate, microwave.

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Authors: Shahin Kazemi, Mohammad Reza Mohaddes Mojtahedi, Ruhollah Semnani Rahbar, Wataru Takarada, Takeshi Kikutani

Abstract:

Nylon 6-clay hybrid/neat nylon 6, sheath/core bicomponent nanocomposite fibers containing 4 wt% of clay in sheath section were melt spun at different take-up speeds. Their orientation and crystalline structure were compared to those of neat nylon 6 fibers. Birefringence measurements showed that the orientation development in sheath and core parts of bicomponent fibers was different. Crystallinity results showed that clay did not act as a nucleating agent for bicomponent fibers. The neat nylon 6 fiber had a smooth surface while striped pattern was appeared on the surface of bicomponent fiber containing clay due to thermal shrinkage of the core part.

Keywords: Bicomponent fiber, High speed melt spinning, Nylon 6-clay hybrid, Nylon 6.

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Authors: Watcharawalee Lertlum, Borworn Papasratorn

Abstract:

Conventional WBL is effective for meaningful student, because rote student learn by repeating without thinking or trying to understand. It is impossible to have full benefit from conventional WBL. Understanding of rote student-s intention and what influences it becomes important. Poorly designed user interface will discourage rote student-s cultivation and intention to use WBL. Thus, user interface design is an important factor especially when WBL is used as comprehensive replacement of conventional teaching. This research proposes the influencing factors that can enhance student-s intention to use the system. The enhanced TAM is used for evaluating the proposed factors. The research result points out that factors influencing rote student-s intention are Perceived Usefulness of Homepage Content Structure, Perceived User Friendly Interface, Perceived Hedonic Component, and Perceived (homepage) Visual Attractiveness.

Keywords: E-learning, Web-Based learning, Intention to use, Rote student, Influencing.

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Authors: Mohd Sazli Saad, Hishamuddin Jamaluddin, Intan Zaurah Mat Darus

Abstract:

This paper presents the development of an active vibration control using direct adaptive controller to suppress the vibration of a flexible beam system. The controller is realized based on linear parametric form. Differential evolution optimisation algorithm is used to optimize the controller using single objective function by minimizing the mean square error of the observed vibration signal. Furthermore, an alternative approach is developed to systematically search for the best controller model structure together with it parameter values. The performance of the control scheme is presented and analysed in both time and frequency domain. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed scheme is able to suppress the unwanted vibration effectively.

Keywords: flexible beam, finite difference method, active vibration control, differential evolution, direct adaptive controller

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Authors: Li Xu, Huanbao Jiang, Zhenfei Huang, Lailai Zhang

Abstract:

In recent years, as global warming, the sea-ice extent of North Arctic undergoes an evident decrease and Arctic channel has attracted the attention of shipping industry. Ice crystals existing in the seawater of Arctic channel which enter the seawater system of the ship with the seawater were found blocking the seawater pipe. The appearance of cooler paralysis, auxiliary machine error and even ship power system paralysis may be happened if seriously. In order to reduce the effect of high temperature in auxiliary equipment, seawater system will use external ice-water to participate in the cooling cycle and achieve the state of its flow. The distribution of ice crystals in seawater pipe can be achieved. As the ice slurry system is solid liquid two-phase system, the flow process of ice-water mixture is very complex and diverse. In this paper, the flow process in seawater pipe of ice slurry is simulated with fluid dynamics simulation software based on k-ε turbulence model. As the ice packing fraction is a key factor effecting the distribution of ice crystals, the influence of ice packing fraction on the flowing process of ice slurry is analyzed. In this work, the simulation results show that as the ice packing fraction is relatively large, the distribution of ice crystals is uneven in the flowing process of the seawater which has such disadvantage as increase the possibility of blocking, that will provide scientific forecasting methods for the forming of ice block in seawater piping system. It has important significance for the reliability of the operating of polar ships in the future.

Keywords: Ice slurry, seawater pipe, ice packing fraction, numerical simulation.

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Authors: Rahib Abiyev, Vasif H. Abiyev, C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper the development of neural network based fuzzy inference system for electricity consumption prediction is considered. The electricity consumption depends on number of factors, such as number of customers, seasons, type-s of customers, number of plants, etc. It is nonlinear process and can be described by chaotic time-series. The structure and algorithms of neuro-fuzzy system for predicting future values of electricity consumption is described. To determine the unknown coefficients of the system, the supervised learning algorithm is used. As a result of learning, the rules of neuro-fuzzy system are formed. The developed system is applied for predicting future values of electricity consumption of Northern Cyprus. The simulation of neuro-fuzzy system has been performed.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, neural network, neuro-fuzzy system, neuro-fuzzy prediction.

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Authors: M. Nazmunnahar, J. J. Del Val, A. Vimmrova, J. González

Abstract:

We report the microstructural and magnetic properties of Ni50Mn39Sn11 and Ni50Mn36Sn14 ribbon Heusler alloys. Experimental results were obtained by differential scanning calorymetry, X-ray diffraction and vibrating sample magnetometry techniques. The Ni-Mn-Sn system undergoes a martensitic structural transformation in a wide temperature range. For example, for Ni50Mn39Sn11 the start and finish temperatures of the martensitic and austenite phase transformation for ribbon alloy were Ms=336K, Mf=328K, As=335K and Af=343K whereas no structural transformation is observed for Ni50Mn36Sn14 alloys. Magnetic measurements show the typical ferromagnetic behavior with Curie temperature 207 K at low applied field of 50 Oe. The complex behavior exhibited by these Heusler alloys should be ascribed to the strong coupling between magnetism and structure, being their magnetic behavior determined by the distance between Mn atoms.

Keywords: Structural transformation, as-cast ribbon, Heusler alloys, Magnetic properties.

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

Abstract:

Electricity prices have sophisticated features such as high volatility, nonlinearity and high frequency that make forecasting quite difficult. Electricity price has a volatile and non-random character so that, it is possible to identify the patterns based on the historical data. Intelligent decision-making requires accurate price forecasting for market traders, retailers, and generation companies. So far, many shallow-ANN (artificial neural networks) models have been published in the literature and showed adequate forecasting results. During the last years, neural networks with many hidden layers, which are referred to as DNN (deep neural networks) have been using in the machine learning community. The goal of this study is to investigate electricity price forecasting performance of the shallow-ANN and DNN models for the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. The forecasting accuracy of the models has been evaluated with publicly available data from the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. Both shallow-ANN and DNN approach would give successful result in forecasting problems. Historical load, price and weather temperature data are used as the input variables for the models. The data set includes power consumption measurements gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. In this regard, forecasting studies have been carried out comparatively with shallow-ANN and DNN models for Turkish electricity markets in the related time period. The main contribution of this study is the investigation of different shallow-ANN and DNN models in the field of electricity price forecast. All models are compared regarding their MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Square) results. DNN models give better forecasting performance compare to shallow-ANN. Best five MAE results for DNN models are 0.346, 0.372, 0.392, 0,402 and 0.409.

Keywords: Deep learning, artificial neural networks, energy price forecasting, Turkey.

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Authors: Anjushi Verma, Tirthankar Gayen

Abstract:

Although, reliability is an important attribute of quality, especially for mission critical systems, yet, there does not exist any versatile model even today for the reliability assessment of component-based software. The existing Black Box models are found to make various assumptions which may not always be realistic and may be quite contrary to the actual behaviour of software. They focus on observing the manner in which the system behaves without considering the structure of the system, the components composing the system, their interconnections, dependencies, usage frequencies, etc.As a result, the entropy (uncertainty) in assessment using these models is much high.Though, there are some models based on operation profile yet sometimes it becomes extremely difficult to obtain the exact operation profile concerned with a given operation. This paper discusses the drawbacks, deficiencies and limitations of Black Box approaches from the perspective of various authors and finally proposes a conceptual model for the reliability assessment of software.

Keywords: Black Box, faults, failure, software reliability.

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Authors: M. Wannaborworn, B. Jongsomjit, T. Shiono

Abstract:

Copolymerization of ethylene with 1-hexene was carried out using two ansa-fluorenyl titanium derivative complexes. The substituent effect on the catalytic activity, monomer reactivity ratio and polymer property was investigated. It was found that the presence of t-Bu groups on fluorenyl ring exhibited remarkable catalytic activity and produced polymer with high molecular weight. However, these catalysts produce polymer with narrow molecular weight distribution, indicating the characteristic of single-site metallocene catalyst. Based on 13C NMR, we can observe that monomer reactivity ratio was affected by catalyst structure. The rH values of complex 2 were lower than that of complex 1 which might be result from the higher steric hindrance leading to a reduction of 1- hexene insertion step.

Keywords: Constrained geometry catalyst, linear low density polyethylene, copolymerization, reactivity ratio

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Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

Abstract:

Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: Conditional Generative Adversarial Net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series.

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