Search results for: Fire statistics

Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

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In this paper, we describe how Bayesian inferential reasoning will contributes in obtaining a well-satisfied prediction for Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems (DCOPs) with uncertainties. We also demonstrate how DCOPs could be merged to multi-agent knowledge understand and prediction (i.e. Situation Awareness). The DCOPs functions were merged with Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) in the form of situation, awareness, and utility nodes. We describe how the uncertainties can be represented to the BBN and make an effective prediction using the expectation-maximization algorithm or conjugate gradient descent algorithm. The idea of variable prediction using Bayesian inference may reduce the number of variables in agents’ sampling domain and also allow missing variables estimations. Experiment results proved that the BBN perform compelling predictions with samples containing uncertainties than the perfect samples. That is, Bayesian inference can help in handling uncertainties and dynamism of DCOPs, which is the current issue in the DCOPs community. We show how Bayesian inference could be formalized with Distributed Situation Awareness (DSA) using uncertain and missing agents’ data. The whole framework was tested on multi-UAV mission for forest fire searching. Future work focuses on augmenting existing architecture to deal with dynamic DCOPs algorithms and multi-agent information merging.

Keywords: DCOP, multi-agent reasoning, Bayesian reasoning, swarm intelligence.

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Authors: Jan Sindelar

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The paper presents an applied study of a multivariate AR(p) process fitted to daily data from U.S. commodity futures markets with the use of Bayesian statistics. In the first part a detailed description of the methods used is given. In the second part two BVAR models are chosen one with assumption of lognormal, the second with normal distribution of prices conditioned on the parameters. For a comparison two simple benchmark models are chosen that are commonly used in todays Financial Mathematics. The article compares the quality of predictions of all the models, tries to find an adequate rate of forgetting of information and questions the validity of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the semi-strong form.

Keywords: Vector auto-regression, forecasting, financial, Bayesian, efficient markets.

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Authors: Gundeep Singh Bindra

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Statistics indicate that more than 1000 phishing attacks are launched every month. With 57 million people hit by the fraud so far in America alone, how do we combat phishing?This publication aims to discuss strategies in the war against Phishing. This study is an examination of the analysis and critique found in the ways adopted at various levels to counter the crescendo of phishing attacks and new techniques being adopted for the same. An analysis of the measures taken up by the varied popular Mail servers and popular browsers is done under this study. This work intends to increase the understanding and awareness of the internet user across the globe and even discusses plausible countermeasures at the users as well as the developers end. This conceptual paper will contribute to future research on similar topics.

Keywords: Anti-phishing, countermeasures, effectiveness, fake pages, security analysis.

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Authors: F. Noto, M. Castro, R. Garraffo, An. Mirabella, A. Rizzo, G. Cuttone

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The door fan test is a verification procedure on the tightness of a room, necessary following the installation of saturation extinguishing systems and made mandatory according to the UNI 15004-1: 2019 standard whenever a gas extinguishing system is designed and installed. The door fan test was carried out at the Portopalo di Capo Passero headquarters of the Southern National Laboratories and highlighted how the Data Processing Center (CED) is perfectly up to standard, passing the door fan test in an excellent way. The Southern National Laboratories constitute a solid research reality, well established in the international scientific panorama. The CED in the Portopalo site has been expanded, so the extinguishing system has been expanded according to a detailed design. After checking the correctness of the design to verify the absence of air leaks, we carried out the door fan test. The activities of the Laboratori Nazionali del Sud (LNS) are mainly aimed at basic research in the field of Nuclear Physics, Nuclear and Particle Astrophysics. The Portopalo site will host some of the largest submarine wired scientific research infrastructures built in Europe and in the world, such as KM3NeT and EMSO ERIC; in particular, the site research laboratory in Portopalo will host the power supply and data acquisition systems of the underwater infrastructures, and a technological backbone will be created, unique in the Mediterranean, capable of allowing the connection, at abyssal depths, of dozens of real-time surveying and research structures of the marine environment deep.

Keywords: KM3Net, fire protection, door fan test, CED.

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Authors: Dhongkyu Yoon

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Environmental statistics reveals that the pollution of acid rain in South Korea is a serious issue. Yet the awareness of people is low. Even after a gradual decrease of pollutant emission in Korea, the acidity has not been reduced. There no boundaries in the atmosphere are set and the influence of the neighboring countries such as China is apparent. Governmental efforts among China, Japan and Korea have been made on this issue. However, not much progress has been observed. Along with the governmental activities, therefore, an active monitoring of the pollution among the countries and the promotion of environmental awareness at the civil level including especially the middle and high schools are highly recommended. It will be this young generation who will face damaged country as inheritance not the current generation.

Keywords: acid rain, international collaboration, pollution, South Korea

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Authors: Theodosia Prodromou

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The article investigates how 14- to 15- year-olds build informal conceptions of inferential statistics as they engage in a modelling process and build their own computer simulations with dynamic statistical software. This study proposes four primary phases of informal inferential reasoning for the students in the statistical modeling and simulation process. Findings show shifts in the conceptual structures across the four phases and point to the potential of all of these phases for fostering the development of students- robust knowledge of the logic of inference when using computer based simulations to model and investigate statistical questions.

Keywords: Inferential reasoning, learning, modelling, statistical inference, simulation.

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Authors: Norazah Mohd Suki, Norbayah Mohd Suki

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Descriptive statistics was performed with the aim to achieve research objective of to investigate lecturers- usage of the mobile technology for teaching. A representative sample of 20 lecturers from the Faculty of Industrial Art & Design Technology of Universiti Industri Selangor (UNISEL), Malaysia was selected as the respondents. The result attested that lecturers fully accept the concept of mobility in learning and game play is appealing concept to support classroom learning. Subsequently, analogous experience on small size of keypad, screen resolution, and navigation could be the major problematic factors to students and affect their mobile learning process. Recommendation for future research is also presented.

Keywords: Academics, Mobile e-learning, Mobile technology, Readiness.

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Authors: Asaad Moosa

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In recent years with the rapid development of Internet and the Web, more and more web applications have been deployed in many fields and organizations such as finance, military, and government. Together with that, hackers have found more subtle ways to attack web applications. According to international statistics, SQL Injection is one of the most popular vulnerabilities of web applications. The consequences of this type of attacks are quite dangerous, such as sensitive information could be stolen or authentication systems might be by-passed. To mitigate the situation, several techniques have been adopted. In this research, a security solution is proposed using Artificial Neural Network to protect web applications against this type of attacks. The solution has been experimented on sample datasets and has given promising result. The solution has also been developed in a prototypic web application firewall called ANNbWAF.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks ANN, SQL Injection, Web Application Firewall WAF, Web Application Scanner WAS.

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Authors: Víctor Manuel Muñoz-Sánchez, Antonio Manuel Pérez-Flores

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This paper analyzes the institutionalization of social protest in Spain. In the current crisis Podemos party seems to represent the political positions of the most affected citizens by the economic situation. It studies using quantitative techniques (statistical bivariate analysis), focusing on the exploitation of several bases of statistics data from the Center for Sociological and Research of Spanish Government, 15M movement characterization to its institutionalization in the Podemos party. Making a comparison between the participant's profile by the 15M and the social bases of Podemos votes. Data on the transformation of the socio-demographic profile of the fans, connoisseurs and 15M participants and voters are given.

Keywords: Collective action, emerging parties, political parties, social protest.

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Authors: Hazem M. Al-Mofleh, John E. Daniels, Joseph W. McKean

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In this paper numerous robust fitting procedures are considered in estimating spatial variograms. In spatial statistics, the conventional variogram fitting procedure (non-linear weighted least squares) suffers from the same outlier problem that has plagued this method from its inception. Even a 3-parameter model, like the variogram, can be adversely affected by a single outlier. This paper uses the Hogg-Type adaptive procedures to select an optimal score function for a rank-based estimator for these non-linear models. Numeric examples and simulation studies will demonstrate the robustness, utility, efficiency, and validity of these estimates.

Keywords: Asymptotic relative efficiency, non-linear rank-based, robust, rank estimates, variogram.

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Authors: N. Dahbi, M. Daoudi, A.Belghachi

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The present work deals with the calculation of transport properties of Hg0.8Cd0.2Te (MCT) semiconductor in degenerate case. Due to their energy-band structure, this material becomes degenerate at moderate doping densities, which are around 1015 cm-3, so that the usual Maxwell-Boltzmann approximation is inaccurate in the determination of transport parameters. This problem is faced by using Fermi-Dirac (F-D) statistics, and the non-parabolic behavior of the bands may be approximated by the Kane model. The Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is used here to determinate transport parameters: drift velocity, mean energy and drift mobility versus electric field and the doped densities. The obtained results are in good agreement with those extracted from literature.

Keywords: degeneracy case, Hg0.8Cd0.2Te semiconductor, Monte Carlo simulation, transport parameters.

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Authors: Mohamed Lahcen BenSaad, Sun XingMing

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Information hiding, especially watermarking is a promising technique for the protection of intellectual property rights. This technology is mainly advanced for multimedia but the same has not been done for text. Web pages, like other documents, need a protection against piracy. In this paper, some techniques are proposed to show how to hide information in web pages using some features of the markup language used to describe these pages. Most of the techniques proposed here use the white space to hide information or some varieties of the language in representing elements. Experiments on a very small page and analysis of five thousands web pages show that these techniques have a wide bandwidth available for information hiding, and they might form a solid base to develop a robust algorithm for web page watermarking.

Keywords: Digital Watermarking, Information Hiding, Markup Language, Text watermarking, Software Watermarking.

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Authors: Jin-Lung Guan, Ming-Ta Yang, Jhy-Cherng Gu, Hsin-Hung Chang, Chin-Lung Huang

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Voltage flicker problems have long existed in several of the distribution areas served by the Taiwan Power Company. In the past, those research results indicating that the estimated ΔV10 value based on the conventional method is significantly smaller than the survey value. This paper is used to study the relationship between the voltage flicker problems and harmonic power variation for the power system with electric arc furnaces. This investigation discussed thought the effect of harmonic power fluctuation with flicker estimate value. The method of field measurement, statistics and simulation is used. The survey results demonstrate that 10 ΔV estimate must account for the effect of harmonic power variation.

Keywords: Voltage Flicker, Harmonic Power, EAF.

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Authors: I. Erins, J. Erina

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The aim of this article is to assess the existing business models used by the banks operating in the CEE countries in the time period from 2006 till 2011. In order to obtain research results, the authors performed qualitative analysis of the scientific literature on bank business models, which have been grouped into clusters that consist of such components as: 1) capital and reserves; 2) assets; 3) deposits, and 4) loans. In their turn, bank business models have been developed based on the types of core activities of the banks, and have been divided into four groups: Wholesale, Investment, Retail and Universal Banks. Descriptive statistics have been used to analyse the models, determining mean, minimal and maximal values of constituent cluster components, as well as standard deviation. The analysis of the data is based on such bank variable indices as Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE).

Keywords: Banks, Business model, CEE, ROA, ROE.

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Authors: Valene J. Gresham, MA, Laura A. Brodie

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For the last decade, statistics show traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a growing concern in our legal system. In an effort to obtain data regarding the influence of neuropsychological expert witness testimony in a criminal case, this study tested three hypotheses. H1: The majority of jurors will vote not guilty, due to mild head injury. H2: The jurors will give more credence to the testimony of the neuropsychologist rather than the psychiatrist. H3: The jurors will be more lenient in their sentencing, given the testimony of the neuropsychologist-s testimony. The criterion for inclusion in the study as a participant is identical to those used for inclusion in the eligibility for jury duty in the United States. A chisquared test was performed to analyze the data for the three hypotheses. The results supported all of the hypotheses; however statistical significance was seen in H1 and H2 only.

Keywords: Expert witness, jury decision, neuropsychology, traumatic brain injury.

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Authors: Ondřej Nowak

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This paper presents an exploration into the structure of the corporate governance network and interlocking directorates in the Czech Republic. First a literature overview and a basic terminology of the network theory is presented. Further in the text, statistics and other calculations relevant to corporate governance networks are presented. For this purpose an empirical data set consisting of 2 906 joint stock companies in the Czech Republic was examined. Industries with the highest average number of interlocks per company were healthcare, and energy and utilities. There is no observable link between the financial performance of the company and the number of its interlocks. Also interlocks with financial companies are very rare.

Keywords: Corporate Governance, Interlocking Directorates, Network Theory, Czech Republic.

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Authors: Shuimiao Wan, Chao Yuan, Baoguang Tian

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In statistics parameter theory, usually the parameter estimations have two kinds, one is the least-square estimation (LSE), and the other is the best linear unbiased estimation (BLUE). Due to the determining theorem of minimum variance unbiased estimator (MVUE), the parameter estimation of BLUE in linear model is most ideal. But since the calculations are complicated or the covariance is not given, people are hardly to get the solution. Therefore, people prefer to use LSE rather than BLUE. And this substitution will take some losses. To quantize the losses, many scholars have presented many kinds of different relative efficiencies in different views. For the linear weighted regression model, this paper discusses the relative efficiencies of LSE of β to BLUE of β. It also defines two new relative efficiencies and gives their lower bounds.

Keywords: Linear weighted regression, Relative efficiency, Lower bound, Parameter estimation.

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Authors: Ritu Shitak

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Humans are social mammals, of the primate order. Our biology, our behaviour and our pathologies are unique to us. In our desire to understand, reduce solitary confinement one source of information is the many reports of social isolation of other social mammals, especially primates. A behavioural study was conducted in the department of pharmacology at Indira Gandhi Medical College, Shimla in Himachalpradesh province in India using white albino mice. Different behavioural parameters were observed by using open field, tail suspension, tests for aggressive behaviour and social interactions and the effect of isolation was studied. The results were evaluated and the standard statistics were applied. The said study was done to establish facts that isolation itself impairs social behaviour and can lead to alcohol dependence as well as related drug dependence.

Keywords: Albino Mice, Drug Dependence, Social isolation.

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Authors: Norwati Mustapha, Manijeh Jalali, Abolghasem Bozorgniya, Mehrdad Jalali

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Web usage mining algorithms have been widely utilized for modeling user web navigation behavior. In this study we advance a model for mining of user-s navigation pattern. The model makes user model based on expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm.An EM algorithm is used in statistics for finding maximum likelihood estimates of parameters in probabilistic models, where the model depends on unobserved latent variables. The experimental results represent that by decreasing the number of clusters, the log likelihood converges toward lower values and probability of the largest cluster will be decreased while the number of the clusters increases in each treatment.

Keywords: Web Usage Mining, Expectation maximization, navigation pattern mining.

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Authors: Abid I. Abu-Tair, Gavin M. Wilde, John M. Kinuthia

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Urban Search and Rescue (USAR) is a functional capability that has been developed to allow the United Kingdom Fire and Rescue Service to deal with ‘major incidents’ primarily involving structural collapse. The nature of the work undertaken by USAR means that staying out of a damaged or collapsed building structure is not usually an option for search and rescue personnel. As a result there is always a risk that they themselves could become victims. For this paper, a systematic and investigative review using desk research was undertaken to explore the role which structural engineering can play in assisting search and rescue personnel to conduct structural assessments when in the field. The focus is on how search and rescue personnel can assess damaged and collapsed building structures, not just in terms of structural damage that may been countered, but also in relation to structural stability. Natural disasters, accidental emergencies, acts of terrorism and other extreme events can vary significantly in nature and ferocity, and can cause a wide variety of damage to building structures. It is not possible or, even realistic, to provide search and rescue personnel with definitive guidelines and procedures to assess damaged and collapsed building structures as there are too many variables to consider. However, understanding what implications damage may have upon the structural stability of a building structure will enable search and rescue personnel to better judge and quantify risk from a life-safety standpoint. It is intended that this will allow search and rescue personnel to make informed decisions and ensure every effort is made to mitigate risk, so that they themselves do not become victims.

Keywords: Damaged and collapsed building structures, life safety, quantifying risk, search and rescue personnel, structural assessments in the field.

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Authors: F. Azna A. Shahabuddin, Kamarulzaman Ibrahim, Abdul Aziz Jemain

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Many works have been carried out to compare the efficiency of several goodness of fit procedures for identifying whether or not a particular distribution could adequately explain a data set. In this paper a study is conducted to investigate the power of several goodness of fit tests such as Kolmogorov Smirnov (KS), Anderson-Darling(AD), Cramer- von- Mises (CV) and a proposed modification of Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness of fit test which incorporates a variance stabilizing transformation (FKS). The performances of these selected tests are studied under simple random sampling (SRS) and Ranked Set Sampling (RSS). This study shows that, in general, the Anderson-Darling (AD) test performs better than other GOF tests. However, there are some cases where the proposed test can perform as equally good as the AD test.

Keywords: Empirical distribution function, goodness-of-fit, order statistics, ranked set sampling

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Authors: Rami H. Fouad

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The purpose of this study is to identify and evaluate the scale of implementation of Just-In-Time (JIT) in the different industrial sectors in the Middle East. This study analyzes the empirical data collected by a questionnaire survey distributed to companies in three main industrial sectors in the Middle East, which are: food, chemicals and fabrics. The following main hypotheses is formulated and tested: (The requirements of JIT application differ according to the type of industrial sector).Descriptive statistics and Box plot analysis were used to examine the hypotheses. This study indicates a reasonable evidence for accepting the main hypotheses. It reveals that there is no standard way to adopt JIT as a production system. But each industrial sector should concentrate in the investment on critical requirements that differ according to the nature and strategy of production followed in that sector.

Keywords: Just-In-Time, JIT, Questionnaire, Types of Industrial Sectors.

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Authors: J. Ruso, M. Krsmanovic, A. Trajkovic, Z. Rakicevic

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Since the late 1970s, quality management has become an important tool for achieving a high quality of public e-administration services in many countries. Very important part of quality management in e-administration is measurement of quality indicators related to this sector. Therefore, this paper gives a description of e-administration, including statistics about it and other examples from many countries worldwide, as well as the explanation of quality management in public e-administration. The paper also gives a list and description of quality indicators relevant to e-administration, as part of quality management within the e-administration. Through a literature review and best practices, the paper aims to analyze quality indicators measurement and other parts of good quality management when it comes to the public e-administration and consequently to show the usefulness of quality management in public e-administration in order to provide services of high quality.

Keywords: e-Administration, quality indicators, quality management.

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Authors: Ehsan Bashiri

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A 7-step method (with 25 sub-steps) to assess risk of air pollutants is introduced. These steps are: pre-considerations, sampling, statistical analysis, exposure matrix and likelihood, doseresponse matrix and likelihood, total risk evaluation, and discussion of findings. All mentioned words and expressions are wellunderstood; however, almost all steps have been modified, improved, and coupled in such a way that a comprehensive method has been prepared. Accordingly, the SADRA (Statistical Analysis-Driven Risk Assessment) emphasizes extensive and ongoing application of analytical statistics in traditional risk assessment models. A Sulfur Dioxide case study validates the claim and provides a good illustration for this method.

Keywords: Criteria air pollutants, Matrix of risk, Riskassessment, Statistical analysis.

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Authors: A. Chirita, L. Alexandru, D. Marcoci, C. Ene-Draghici

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Minor law breaking seems more and more to be a part of adolescence behavior. An important risk factor which seems to influence delinquency appears to be the socio-economic one. According to Romanian statistics, during the first six months of 2012, 1,378 minors have committed various crimes, the most common being theft, sexual offenses and violent assaults. Drug-related offenses did not reach the gravity of those from high income countries of the European Union, but have a continuous upward during the last years. The aim of our research was to examine whether delinquency in adolescence is correlated to mental disorders or socio-economic and familial factors. Forensic psychiatric expertise was performed to 79 adolescents who committed offenses between 01 January 2012 and 31 December 2012. Teenagers, with ages between 12 and 17, were examined by day hospitalization in the University Clinic of Psychiatry Craiova.

Keywords: Adolescents, criminal behavior, mental illness.

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Authors: Erez Cohen

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The study examines the socioeconomic impact of development of an advanced industry in Israel. The research method is based on data collected from the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics and from the National Insurance Institute (NII) databases, which provided information that allows to examine the Economic and Social Changes during the 1990s. The study examined the socioeconomic effects of the development of advanced industry in Israel. The research findings indicate that as a result of globalization processes, the weight of traditional industry began to diminish as a result of factory closures and the laying off of workers. These circumstances led to growing unemployment among the weaker groups in Israeli society, detracting from their income and thus increasing inequality among different socioeconomic groups in Israel and enhancement of social disparities.

Keywords: Globalization, Israeli advanced industry, public policy, socio-economic indicators.

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Authors: N. R. P Withana, E. Auch

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The purpose of this study was to investigate perceptions of climate change risk to forest ecosystems and forestbased communities as well as perceived effectiveness of adaptation strategies for climate change as well as challenges for adaptation. Data was gathered using a pre-tested semi-structured questionnaire. Simple random selection technique was applied. For the majority of issues, the responses were obtained on multi-point likert scales, and the scores provided were, in turn, used to estimate the means and other useful estimates. A composite knowledge index developed using correct responses to a set of self-rated statements were used to evaluate the issues. The mean of the knowledge index was 0.64. Also all respondents recorded values of the knowledge index above 0.25. Increase forest fire was perceived by respondents as the greatest risk to forest eco-system. Decrease access to water supplies was perceived as the greatest risk to livelihoods of forest based communities. The most effective adaptation strategy relevant to climate change risks to forest eco-systems and forest based communities livelihoods in Kathmandu valley in Nepal as perceived by the respondents was reforestation and afforestation. As well, lack of public awareness was perceived as the major limitation for climate change adaptation. However, perceived risks as well as effective adaptation strategies showed an inconsistent association with knowledge indicators and social-cultural variables. The results provide useful information to any party who involve with climate change issues in Nepal, since such attempts would be more effective once the people’s perceptions on these aspects are taken into account.

Keywords: Climate change, forest ecosystems, forest-based communities, risk perceptions.

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Authors: Mona Masood, Norshazlina Shaik Othman

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The purpose of this study was to investigate graduate students’ visual attention and perceptions of a Prezi presentation. Ten postgraduate master students were presented with a Prezi presentation at the Centre for Instructional Technology and Multimedia, Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM). The eye movement indicators such as dwell time, average fixation on the areas of interests, heat maps and focus maps were abstracted to indicate the students’ visual attention. Descriptive statistics was employed to analyze the students’ perception of the Prezi presentation in terms of text, slide design, images, layout and overall presentation. The result revealed that the students paid more attention to the text followed by the images and sub heading presented through the Prezi presentation.

Keywords: Eye tracking, Prezi, visual attention, visual perception.

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Authors: Mathinee Khongsatid, Phusit Phukamchanoad, Sakapas Sangchai

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This research aims to study the democratic political socialization of the 5th and 6th Graders under the Authority of Dusit District Office, Bangkok by using stratified sampling for probability sampling and using purposive sampling for non-probability sampling to collect data toward the distribution of questionnaires to 300 respondents. This covers all of the schools under the authority of Dusit District Office. The researcher analyzed the data by using descriptive statistics which include arithmetic mean and standard deviation. The result shows that 5th and 6th graders under the authority of Dusit District Office, Bangkok, have displayed some characteristics following democratic political socialization both inside and outside classroom as well as outside school. However, the democratic political socialization in classroom through grouping and class participation is much more emphasized.

Keywords: Democratic, Political Socialization

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Authors: Shumin Hou, Yourong Li, Sanxing Zhao

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Much time series data is generally from continuous dynamic system. Firstly, this paper studies the detection of the nonlinearity of time series from continuous dynamics systems by applying the Phase-randomized surrogate algorithm. Then, the Delay Vector Variance (DVV) method is introduced into nonlinearity test. The results show that under the different sampling conditions, the opposite detection of nonlinearity is obtained via using traditional test statistics methods, which include the third-order autocovariance and the asymmetry due to time reversal. Whereas the DVV method can perform well on determining nonlinear of Lorenz signal. It indicates that the proposed method can describe the continuous dynamics signal effectively.

Keywords: Nonlinearity, Time series, continuous dynamics system, DVV method

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