Search results for: Accidents Prediction Models (APMs)

Authors: N. Miklavčič, U. Kugovnik, N. Galkina, P. Ribarič, R. Vončina

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Today the need for weather predictions is deeply rooted in the everyday life of people as well as it is in industry. The forecasts influence final decision-making processes in multiple areas from agriculture and prevention of natural disasters to air traffic regulations and solutions on a national level for health, security, and economic problems. Namely in Slovenia, alongside other existing forms of application, weather forecasts are adopted for the prognosis of electrical current transmission through powerlines. Meteorological parameters are one of the key factors which need to be considered in estimations of the reliable supply of electrical energy to consumers. And like for any other measured value, the knowledge about measurement uncertainty is critical also for the secure and reliable supply of energy. The estimation of measurement uncertainty grants us a more accurate interpretation of data, a better quality of the end results, and even a possibility of improvement of weather forecast models.

Keywords: Measurement uncertainty, microscale meteorological model, CALMET meteorological station, orthogonal regression.

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Authors: Olga V. Korotkaya

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This article is devoted to an important problem of calculation of deflected mode of the combustion chamber and the nozzle end of a new liquid-propellant rocket cruise engine. A special attention is given to the methodology of calculation. Three operating modes are considered. The analysis has been conducted in ANSYS software. The methods of conducted research are mathematical modeling, substructure method, cyclic symmetry, finite element method. The calculation has been carried out to order of S.P. Korolev Rocket and Space Corporation «Energia». The main results are practical. Proposed methodology and created models would be able to use for a wide range of strength problems.

Keywords: Combustion chamber, cyclic symmetry, finite element method, liquid-propellant rocket engine, nozzle end, substructure.

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Authors: G. Mesfin, M. Shuhaimi

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This paper proposes a new optimization techniques for the optimization a gas processing plant uncertain feed and product flows. The problem is first formulated using a continuous linear deterministic approach. Subsequently, the single and joint chance constraint models for steady state process with timedependent uncertainties have been developed. The solution approach is based on converting the probabilistic problems into their equivalent deterministic form and solved at different confidence levels Case study for a real plant operation has been used to effectively implement the proposed model. The optimization results indicate that prior decision has to be made for in-operating plant under uncertain feed and product flows by satisfying all the constraints at 95% confidence level for single chance constrained and 85% confidence level for joint chance constrained optimizations cases.

Keywords: Butane, Feed composition, LPG, Productspecification, Propane.

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Authors: А. Pashayev, D. Askerov, R. Sadiqov, A. Samedov, C. Ardil

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In contrast to existing methods which do not take into account multiconnectivity in a broad sense of this term, we develop mathematical models and highly effective combination (BIEM and FDM) numerical methods of calculation of stationary and quasistationary temperature field of a profile part of a blade with convective cooling (from the point of view of realization on PC). The theoretical substantiation of these methods is proved by appropriate theorems. For it, converging quadrature processes have been developed and the estimations of errors in the terms of A.Ziqmound continuity modules have been received. For visualization of profiles are used: the method of the least squares with automatic conjecture, device spline, smooth replenishment and neural nets. Boundary conditions of heat exchange are determined from the solution of the corresponding integral equations and empirical relationships. The reliability of designed methods is proved by calculation and experimental investigations heat and hydraulic characteristics of the gas turbine first stage nozzle blade.

Keywords: Modeling, Simulating, Gas Turbine, Cooled Blades.

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Authors: Melike Şah, Konstantin Y.Degtiarev

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This paper proposes a novel improvement of forecasting approach based on using time-invariant fuzzy time series. In contrast to traditional forecasting methods, fuzzy time series can be also applied to problems, in which historical data are linguistic values. It is shown that proposed time-invariant method improves the performance of forecasting process. Further, the effect of using different number of fuzzy sets is tested as well. As with the most of cited papers, historical enrollment of the University of Alabama is used in this study to illustrate the forecasting process. Subsequently, the performance of the proposed method is compared with existing fuzzy time series time-invariant models based on forecasting accuracy. It reveals a certain performance superiority of the proposed method over methods described in the literature.

Keywords: Forecasting, fuzzy time series, linguistic values, student enrollment, time-invariant model.

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Authors: R. Behmanesh, I. Rahimi

Abstract:

recurrent neural network (RNN) is an efficient tool for modeling production control process as well as modeling services. In this paper one RNN was combined with regression model and were employed in order to be checked whether the obtained data by the model in comparison with actual data, are valid for variable process control chart. Therefore, one maintenance process in workshop of Esfahan Oil Refining Co. (EORC) was taken for illustration of models. First, the regression was made for predicting the response time of process based upon determined factors, and then the error between actual and predicted response time as output and also the same factors as input were used in RNN. Finally, according to predicted data from combined model, it is scrutinized for test values in statistical process control whether forecasting efficiency is acceptable. Meanwhile, in training process of RNN, design of experiments was set so as to optimize the RNN.

Keywords: RNN, DOE, regression, control chart.

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Authors: Nadia H. Mohammed, Anmar Al-Taie, Fadia H. Al-Sultany

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Although breast cancer prevalence continues to increase, mortality has been decreasing as a result of early detection and improvement in adjuvant systemic therapy. Nevertheless, this disease required further efforts to understand and identify the associated potential risk factors that could play a role in the prevalence of this malignancy among Iraqi women. The objective of this study was to assess the perception of certain predictive risk factors on the prevalence of breast cancer types among a sample of Iraqi women diagnosed with breast cancer. This was a retrospective observational study carried out at National Cancer Research Center in College of Medicine, Baghdad University from November 2017 to January 2018. Data of 100 patients with breast cancer whose biopsies examined in the National Cancer Research Center were included in this study. Data were collected to structure a detailed assessment regarding the patients’ demographic, medical and cancer records. The majority of study participants (94%) suffered from ductal breast cancer with mean age 49.57 years. Among those women, 48.9% were obese with body mass index (BMI) 35 kg/m². 68.1% of them had positive family history of breast cancer and 66% had low parity. 40.4% had stage II ductal breast cancer followed by 25.5% with stage III. It was found that 59.6% and 68.1% had positive oestrogen receptor sensitivity and positive human epidermal growth factor (HER2/neu) receptor sensitivity respectively. In regard to the impact of prediction of certain variables on the incidence of ductal breast cancer, positive family history of breast cancer (P < 0.0001), low parity (P< 0.0001), stage I and II breast cancer (P = 0.02) and positive HER2/neu status (P < 0.0001) were significant predictive factors among the study participants. The results from this study provide relevant evidence for a significant positive and potential association between certain risk factors and the prevalence of breast cancer among Iraqi women.

Keywords: Ductal breast cancer, hormone sensitivity, Iraq, risk factors.

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Authors: Gerrit Alves, Jürgen Roßmann, Roland Wischnewski

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Today, transport and logistic systems are often tightly integrated in the production. Lean production and just-in-time delivering create multiple constraints that have to be fulfilled. As transport networks often have evolved over time they are very expensive to change. This paper describes a discrete-event-simulation system which simulates transportation models using real time resource routing and collision avoidance. It allows for the specification of own control algorithms and validation of new strategies. The simulation is integrated into a virtual reality (VR) environment and can be displayed in 3-D to show the progress. Simulation elements can be selected through VR metaphors. All data gathered during the simulation can be presented as a detailed summary afterwards. The included cost-benefit calculation can help to optimize the financial outcome. The operation of this approach is shown by the example of a timber harvest simulation.

Keywords: Discrete-Event-Simulation, Logistic, Simulation, Virtual Reality.

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Authors: Ahmed Abdolkhalig

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This paper examines many mathematical methods for molding the hourly price forward curve (HPFC); the model will be constructed by numerous regression methods, like polynomial regression, radial basic function neural networks & a furrier series. Examination the models goodness of fit will be done by means of statistical & graphical tools. The criteria for choosing the model will depend on minimize the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), using the correlation analysis approach for the regression analysis the optimal model will be distinct, which are robust against model misspecification. Learning & supervision technique employed to determine the form of the optimal parameters corresponding to each measure of overall loss. By using all the numerical methods that mentioned previously; the explicit expressions for the optimal model derived and the optimal designs will be implemented.

Keywords: Forward curve, furrier series, regression, radial basic function neural networks.

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Authors: Amjad Riaz, Ali Farsi, Gholamreza Zahedi, Zainuddin Abdul Manan

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Synthesis gas manufacturing by steam reforming of hydrocarbons is an important industrial process. High endothermic nature of the process makes it one of the most cost and heat intensive processes. In the present work, composite effect of different inert gases on synthesis gas yield, feed gas conversion and temperature distribution along the reactor length has been studied using a heterogeneous model. Mathematical model was developed as a first stage and validated against the existing process models. With the addition of inert gases, a higher yield of synthesis gas is observed. Simultaneously the rector outlet temperature drops to as low as 810 K. It was found that Xenon gives the highest yield and conversion while Helium gives the lowest temperature. Using Xenon inert gas 20 percent reduction in outlet temperature was observed compared to traditional case.

Keywords: Energy savings, Inert gas, Methane, Modeling, Steam reforming

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Authors: Sa’ed Abed, Mohammad H. Al Shayeji, Ovais Ahmed, Sahel Alouneh

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Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) is a signaling layer protocol for building, adjusting and ending sessions among participants including Internet conferences, telephone calls and multimedia distribution. SIP facilitates user movement by proxying and forwarding requests to the present location of the user. In this paper, we provide a formal Specification and Description Language (SDL) and Message Sequence Chart (MSC) to model and define the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) SIP protocol and its sample services resulted from informal SIP specification. We create an “Abstract User Interface” using case analysis so that can be applied to identify SIP services more explicitly. The issued sample SIP features are then used as case scenarios; they are revised in MSCs format and validated to their corresponding SDL models.

Keywords: Modeling, MSC, SDL, SIP, validating.

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Authors: Dahir A. Ga'al, Wardah Zainal Abidin

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Policy management in organizations became rising issue in the last decade. It’s because of today’s regulatory requirements in the organizations. To manage policies in large organizations is an imperative work. However, major challenges facing organizations in the last decade is managing all the policies in the organization and making them an active documents rather than simple (inactive) documents stored in computer hard drive or on a shelf. Because of this challenge, organizations need policy management program. This policy management program can be either manual or automated. This paper presents suggestions towards managing policies in organizations. As well as possible policy management solution or program to be utilized, manual or automated. The research first examines the models and frameworks used for managing policies from various perspectives in the literature of the research area/domain. At the end of this paper, a policy management framework is proposed for managing enterprise policies effectively and in a simplified manner.

Keywords: Policy, policy management, policy management program, policy repository.

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Authors: Azze-Eddine Maredj, Nourredine Tonkin

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The recent developments in computing and communication technology permit to users to access multimedia documents with variety of devices (PCs, PDAs, mobile phones...) having heterogeneous capabilities. This diversification of supports has trained the need to adapt multimedia documents according to their execution contexts. A semantic framework for multimedia document adaptation based on the conceptual neighborhood graphs was proposed. In this framework, adapting consists on finding another specification that satisfies the target constraints and which is as close as possible from the initial document. In this paper, we propose a new way of building the conceptual neighborhood graphs to best preserve the proximity between the adapted and the original documents and to deal with more elaborated relations models by integrating the relations relaxation graphs that permit to handle the delays and the distances defined within the relations.

Keywords: Conceptual Neighborhood Graph, Relaxation Graphs, Relations with Delays, Semantic Adaptation of Multimedia Documents.

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Authors: Ákos Wolf, Richard P. Ray

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Due to the introduction of Eurocode 8, the structural design for seismic and dynamic effects has become more significant in Hungary. This has emphasized the need for more effort to describe the behavior of structures under these conditions. Soil conditions have a significant effect on the response of structures by modifying the stiffness and damping of the soil-structural system and by modifying the seismic action as it reaches the ground surface. Shear modulus (G) and shear wave velocity (v_s), which are often measured in the field, are the fundamental dynamic soil properties for foundation vibration problems, liquefaction potential and earthquake site response analysis. There are several laboratory and in-situ measurement techniques to evaluate dynamic soil properties, but unfortunately, they are often too expensive for general design practice. However, a significant number of correlations have been proposed to determine shear wave velocity or shear modulus from Cone Penetration Tests (CPT), which are used more and more in geotechnical design practice in Hungary. This allows the designer to analyze and compare CPT and seismic test result in order to select the best correlation equations for Hungarian soils and to improve the recommendations for the Hungarian geologic conditions. Based on a literature review, as well as research experience in Hungary, the influence of various parameters on the accuracy of results will be shown. This study can serve as a basis for selecting and modifying correlation equations for Hungarian soils. Test data are taken from seven locations in Hungary with similar geologic conditions. The shear wave velocity values were measured by seismic CPT. Several factors are analyzed including soil type, behavior index, measurement depth, geologic age etc. for their effect on the accuracy of predictions. The final results show an improved prediction method for Hungarian soils

Keywords: CPT correlation, dynamic soil properties, seismic CPT, shear wave velocity.

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Authors: Jittarat Satonsaowapak, Thanatchai. Kulworawanichpong., Ratchadaporn Oonsivilai, Anant Oonsivilai

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The use of renewable energy sources becomes more necessary and interesting. As wider applications of renewable energy devices at domestic, commercial and industrial levels has not only resulted in greater awareness, but also significantly installed capacities. In addition, biomass principally is in the form of woods, which is a form of energy by humans for a long time. Gasification is a process of conversion of solid carbonaceous fuel into combustible gas by partial combustion. Many gasifier models have various operating conditions; the parameters kept in each model are different. This study applied experimental data, which has three inputs, which are; biomass consumption, temperature at combustion zone and ash discharge rate. One output is gas flow rate. For this paper, neural network was used to identify the gasifier system suitable for the experimental data. In the result,neural networkis usable to attain the answer.

Keywords: Gasifier System, Identification, Neural Network

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Authors: M. G. Mattos, J. E. Pécora Jr, T. A. Briso

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Today's challenging business environment, with unpredictable demand and volatility, requires a supply chain strategy that handles uncertainty and risks in the right way. Even though inventory models have been previously explored, this paper seeks to apply these concepts on a practical situation. This study involves the inventory replenishment problem, applying techniques that are mainly based on mathematical assumptions and modeling. The primary goal is to improve the retailer’s supply chain processes taking store differences when setting the various target stock levels. Through inventory review policy, picking piece implementation and minimum exposure definition, we were able not only to promote the inventory reduction as well as improve sales results. The inventory management theory from literature review was then tested on a single case study regarding a particular department in one of the largest Latam retail chains.

Keywords: Inventory, distribution, retail, risk, safety stock, sales, uncertainty.

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Authors: Lubna Eljabu, Mohammad Etemad, Stan Matwin

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The automatic extraction of shipping routes is advantageous for intelligent traffic management systems to identify events and support decision-making in maritime surveillance. At present, there is a high demand for the extraction of maritime traffic networks that resemble the real traffic of vessels accurately, which is valuable for further analytical processing tasks for vessels trajectories (e.g., naval routing and voyage planning, anomaly detection, destination prediction, time of arrival estimation). With the help of big data and processing huge amounts of vessels’ trajectory data, it is possible to learn these shipping routes from the navigation history of past behaviour of other, similar ships that were travelling in a given area. In this paper, we propose a spatial clustering model of vessels’ trajectories (SPTCLUST) to extract spatial representations of sailing routes from historical Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. The whole model consists of three main parts: data preprocessing, path finding, and route extraction, which consists of clustering and representative trajectory extraction. The proposed clustering method provides techniques to overcome the problems of: (i) optimal input parameters selection; (ii) the high complexity of processing a huge volume of multidimensional data; (iii) and the spatial representation of complete representative trajectory detection in the context of trajectory clustering algorithms. The experimental evaluation showed the effectiveness of the proposed model by using a real-world AIS dataset from the Port of Halifax. The results contribute to further understanding of shipping route patterns. This could aid surveillance authorities in stable and sustainable vessel traffic management.

Keywords: Vessel trajectory clustering, trajectory mining, Spatial Clustering, marine intelligent navigation, maritime traffic network extraction, sdailing routes extraction.

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Authors: P. M. Arun Kumar, S. Chandramathi

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The proliferation of multimedia technology and services in today’s world provide ample research scope in the frontiers of visual signal processing. Wide spread usage of video based applications in heterogeneous environment needs viable methods of Video Quality Assessment (VQA). The evaluation of video quality not only depends on high QoS requirements but also emphasis the need of novel term ‘QoE’ (Quality of Experience) that perceive video quality as user centric. This paper discusses two vital video quality assessment methods namely, subjective and objective assessment methods. The evolution of various video quality metrics, their classification models and applications are reviewed in this work. The Mean Opinion Score (MOS) based subjective measurements and algorithm based objective metrics are discussed and their challenges are outlined. Further, this paper explores the recent progress of VQA in emerging technologies such as mobile video and 3D video.

Keywords: 3D-Video, no reference metric, quality of experience, video quality assessment, video quality metrics.

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Authors: Valeri A. Makarov, Nazareth P. Castellanos

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Statistical analysis of electrophysiological recordings obtained under, e.g. tactile, stimulation frequently suggests participation in the network dynamics of experimentally unobserved “hidden" neurons. Such interneurons making synapses to experimentally recorded neurons may strongly alter their dynamical responses to the stimuli. We propose a mathematical method that formalizes this possibility and provides an algorithm for inferring on the presence and dynamics of hidden neurons based on fitting of the experimental data to spike trains generated by the network model. The model makes use of Integrate and Fire neurons “chemically" coupled through exponentially decaying synaptic currents. We test the method on simulated data and also provide an example of its application to the experimental recording from the Dorsal Column Nuclei neurons of the rat under tactile stimulation of a hind limb.

Keywords: Integrate and fire neuron, neural network models, spike trains.

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Authors: Alexander A. Muravyov

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A minimal complexity version of component mode synthesis is presented that requires simplified computer programming, but still provides adequate accuracy for modeling lower eigenproperties of large structures and their transient responses. The novelty is that a structural separation into components is done along a plane/surface that exhibits rigid-like behavior, thus only normal modes of each component is sufficient to use, without computing any constraint, attachment, or residual-attachment modes. The approach requires only such input information as a few (lower) natural frequencies and corresponding undamped normal modes of each component. A novel technique is shown for formulation of equations of motion, where a double transformation to generalized coordinates is employed and formulation of nonproportional damping matrix in generalized coordinates is shown.

Keywords: component mode synthesis, finite element models, transient response, nonproportional damping

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Authors: L. Hermanns, M.A. Santoyo, L. E. Quirós, J. Vega, J. M. Gaspar-Escribano, B. Benito

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We study the dynamic response of a wind turbine structure subjected to theoretical seismic motions, taking into account the rotational component of ground shaking. Models are generated for a shallow moderate crustal earthquake in the Madrid Region (Spain). Synthetic translational and rotational time histories are computed using the Discrete Wavenumber Method, assuming a point source and a horizontal layered earth structure. These are used to analyze the dynamic response of a wind turbine, represented by a simple finite element model. Von Mises stress values at different heights of the tower are used to study the dynamical structural response to a set of synthetic ground motion time histories

Keywords: Synthetic seismograms, rotations, wind turbine, dynamic structural response

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Authors: M. Mamatha, H. B. Aravinda, E. T. Puttaiah, S. Manjappa

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One of the causes of water pollution is the presence of heavy metals in water. In the present study, an adsorbent prepared from the raw bark of the Pongamia pinnata tree is used for the removal of ferrous or ferric ions from aqueous and waste water containing heavy metals. Adsorption studies were conducted at different pH, concentration of metal ion, amount of adsorbent, contact time, agitation and temperature. The Langmuir and Freundlich adsorption isotherm models were applied for the results. The Langmuir isotherms were best fitted by the equilibrium data. The maximum adsorption was found to 146mg/g in waste water at a temperature of 30°C which is in agreement as comparable to the adsorption capacity of different adsorbents reported in literature. Pseudo second order model best fitted the adsorption of both ferrous and ferric ions.

Keywords: Adsorption, Adsorption isotherms, Heavy metals, Industrial effluents.

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Authors: Mahbod Seyednia, Shidvash Vakilipour, Mehran Masdari

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Computations for two-dimensional flow past a stationary and harmonically pitching wind turbine airfoil at a moderate value of Reynolds number (400000) are carried out by progressively increasing the angle of attack for stationary airfoil and at fixed pitching frequencies for rotary one. The incompressible Navier-Stokes equations in conjunction with Unsteady Reynolds Average Navier-Stokes (URANS) equations for turbulence modeling are solved by OpenFOAM package to investigate the aerodynamic phenomena occurred at stationary and pitching conditions on a NACA 6-series wind turbine airfoil. The aim of this study is to enhance the accuracy of numerical simulation in predicting the aerodynamic behavior of an oscillating airfoil in OpenFOAM. Hence, for turbulence modelling, k-ω-SST with low-Reynolds correction is employed to capture the unsteady phenomena occurred in stationary and oscillating motion of the airfoil. Using aerodynamic and pressure coefficients along with flow patterns, the unsteady aerodynamics at pre-, near-, and post-static stall regions are analyzed in harmonically pitching airfoil, and the results are validated with the corresponding experimental data possessed by the authors. The results indicate that implementing the mentioned turbulence model leads to accurate prediction of the angle of static stall for stationary airfoil and flow separation, dynamic stall phenomenon, and reattachment of the flow on the surface of airfoil for pitching one. Due to the geometry of the studied 6-series airfoil, the vortex on the upper surface of the airfoil during upstrokes is formed at the trailing edge. Therefore, the pattern flow obtained by our numerical simulations represents the formation and change of the trailing-edge vortex at near- and post-stall regions where this process determines the dynamic stall phenomenon.

Keywords: CFD, Moderate Reynolds number, OpenFOAM, pitching oscillation, unsteady aerodynamics, wind turbine.

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Authors: Eman S. El-Din, Hesham M. El-Badawy, Salwa H. Elramly

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Whereas cellular wireless communication systems are subject to short-and long-term fading. The effect of wireless channel has largely been ignored in most of the teletraffic assessment researches. In this paper, a mathematical teletraffic model is proposed to estimate blocking and forced termination probabilities of cellular wireless networks as a result of teletraffic behavior as well as the outage of the propagation channel. To evaluate the proposed teletraffic model, gamma inter-arrival and general service time distributions have been considered based on wireless channel fading effect. The performance is evaluated and compared with the classical model. The proposed model is dedicated and investigated in different operational conditions. These conditions will consider not only the arrival rate process, but also, the different faded channels models.

Keywords: Cellular wireless networks, outage probability, traffic model, gamma inter-arrival distribution.

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Authors: Naoya Ozaki, Takuya Watanabe, Ryosuke Matsumoto, Noriko Fukasawa

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In the metropolitan areas in Japan, in many stations, shopping areas are set up, and escalators and elevators are installed to make the stations be barrier-free. Further, many areas around the stations are being redeveloped. Railway business operators want to know how much effect these circumstances have on attractiveness of the station or number of passengers using the station. So, we performed a questionnaire survey of the station users in the metropolitan areas for finding factors to affect the attractiveness of stations. Then, based on the analysis of the survey, we developed a method to quantitatively evaluate attractiveness of the stations. We also developed an estimation method for number of passengers based on combination of attractiveness of the station quantitatively evaluated and the residential and labor population around the station. Then, we derived precise linear regression models estimating the attractiveness of the station and number of passengers of the station.

Keywords: Attractiveness of the station, estimation method, number of passengers of the station, redevelopment around the station, renovation of the station.

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Authors: Sungnam Hong, Sun-Kyu Park, Jieun Jeong, Jinwoong Choi

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In this study, a new procedure for inspecting damages on LNG storage tanks was proposed with the use of structural diagnostic techniques: i.e., nondestructive inspection techniques such as macrography, the hammer sounding test, the Schmidt hammer test, and the ultrasonic pulse velocity test, and destructive inspection techniques such as the compressive strength test, the chloride penetration test, and the carbonation test. From the analysis of all the test results, it was concluded that the LNG storage tank cover was in good condition. Such results were also compared with the Korean concrete standard specifications and design values. In addition, the remaining life of the LNG storage tank was estimated by using existing models. Based on the results, an LNG storage tank cover performance evaluation procedure was suggested.

Keywords: Destructive test, LNG storage tank, Nondestructive test, Performance evaluation procedure, Remaining life.

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Authors: Wong Hock Tsen

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This study aims to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on real export in Malaysia. The moving standard deviation with order three (MSD(3)) is used for the measurement of exchange rate volatility. The conventional and partially asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models are used in the estimations. This study finds exchange rate volatility to have significant impact on real total export and some sub-categories of real total export. Moreover, this study finds that the positive or negative exchange rate volatility tends to have positive or negative impact on real export. Exchange rate volatility can be harmful to export of Malaysia.

Keywords: Exchange rate volatility, autoregressive distributed lag, export, Malaysia.

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Authors: Rahma Fitriani, Eni Sumarminingsih, Suci Astutik

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In a fast growing region, conversion of agricultural lands which are surrounded by some new development sites will occur sooner than expected. This phenomenon has been experienced by many regions in Indonesia, especially the fringe of Jakarta (BoDeTaBek). Being Indonesia’s capital city, rapid conversion of land in this area is an unavoidable process. The land conversion expands spatially into the fringe regions, which were initially dominated by agricultural land or conservation sites. Without proper control or growth management, this activity will invite greater costs than benefits. The current land use is the use which maximizes its value. In order to maintain land for agricultural activity or conservation, some efforts are needed to keep the land value of this activity as high as possible. In this case, the knowledge regarding the functional relationship between land value and its driving forces is necessary. In a fast growing region, development externalities are the assumed dominant driving force. Land value is the product of the past decision of its use leading to its value. It is also affected by the local characteristics and the observed surrounded land use (externalities) from the previous period. The effect of each factor on land value has dynamic and spatial virtues; an empirical spatial dynamic land value model will be more useful to capture them. The model will be useful to test and to estimate the extent of land use externalities on land value in the short run as well as in the long run. It serves as a basis to formulate an effective urban growth management’s policy. This study will apply the model to the case of land value in the fringe of Jakarta Metropolitan. The model will be used further to predict the effect of externalities on land value, in the form of prediction map. For the case of Jakarta’s fringe, there is some evidence about the significance of neighborhood urban activity – negative externalities, the previous land value and local accessibility on land value. The effects are accumulated dynamically over years, but they will fully affect the land value after six years.

Keywords: Growth management, land use externalities, land value, spatial panel dynamic.

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Authors: Kul Pun, F. A. Hamad, T. Ahmed, J. O. Ugwu, J. Eyers, G. Lawson, P. A. Russell

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Determining droplet size and distribution is essential when determining the separation efficiency of a two/three-phase separator. This paper investigates the effect of liquid flow and oil pad thickness on the droplet size at the lab scale. The findings show that increasing the inlet flow rates of the oil and water results in size reduction of the droplets and increasing the thickness of the oil pad increases the size of the droplets. The data were fitted with a simple Gaussian model, and the parameters of mean, standard deviation, and amplitude were determined. Trends have been obtained for the fitted parameters as a function of the Reynolds number, which suggest a way forward to better predict the starting parameters for population models when simulating separation using CFD packages. The key parameter to predict to fix the position of the Gaussian distribution was found to be the mean droplet size.

Keywords: Two-phase separator, average bubble droplet, bubble size distribution, liquid-liquid phase.

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Authors: Troy L. Story

Abstract:

Mathematical models of dynamics employing exterior calculus are mathematical representations of the same unifying principle; namely, the description of a dynamic system with a characteristic differential one-form on an odd-dimensional differentiable manifold leads, by analysis with exterior calculus, to a set of differential equations and a characteristic tangent vector (vortex vector) which define transformations of the system. Using this principle, a mathematical model for economic growth is constructed by proposing a characteristic differential one-form for economic growth dynamics (analogous to the action in Hamiltonian dynamics), then generating a pair of characteristic differential equations and solving these equations for the rate of economic growth as a function of labor and capital. By contracting the characteristic differential one-form with the vortex vector, the Lagrangian for economic growth dynamics is obtained.

Keywords: Differential geometry, exterior calculus, Hamiltonian geometry, mathematical economics.

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