Search results for: financial time series.

Authors: Hamidou Diallo, Marianne Guille

Abstract:

This paper identifies leading triggers of deficient episodes in terms of GDP growth based on a sample of countries at different stages of development over 1994-2017. Using logit models, we build early warning systems (EWS) and our results show important differences between developing countries (DCs) and advanced economies (AEs). For AEs, the main predictors of the probability of entering in a GDP growth deficient episode are the deterioration of external imbalances and the vulnerability of fiscal position while DCs face different challenges that need to be considered. The key indicators for them are first, the low ability to pay its debts and second, their belonging or not to a common currency area. We also build homogeneous pools of countries inside AEs and DCs. For AEs, the evolution of the proportion of countries in the riskiest pool is marked first, by three distinct peaks just after the high-tech bubble burst, the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis, and second by a very low minimum level in 2006 and 2007. In contrast, the situation of DCs is characterized first by a relative stability of this proportion and then by an upward trend from 2006, that can be explained by more unfavorable socio-political environment leading to shortcomings in the fiscal consolidation.

Keywords: GDP growth, early warning system, advanced economies, developing countries.

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Authors: Attila Vámosi, Tamás Mankovits, Dávid Huri, Imre Kocsis, Tamás Szabó

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Non-linear FEM calculations are indispensable when important technical information like operating performance of a rubber component is desired. For example rubber bumpers built into air-spring structures may undergo large deformations under load, which in itself shows non-linear behavior. The changing contact range between the parts and the incompressibility of the rubber increases this non-linear behavior further. The material characterization of an elastomeric component is also a demanding engineering task. The shape optimization problem of rubber parts led to the study of FEM based calculation processes. This type of problems was posed and investigated by several authors. In this paper the time demand of certain calculation methods are studied and the possibilities of time reduction is presented.

Keywords: Rubber bumper, data acquisition, finite element analysis, support vector regression.

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Authors: Srikanta Bose, S.K. Mazumder

Abstract:

In the present simulation work, an attempt is made to study the switching dynamics of an optically controlled 4HSiC thyristor power semiconductor device with the use of GaAs optically triggered power transistor. The half-cell thyristor has the forward breakdown of 200 V and reverse breakdown of more than 1000 V. The optically controlled thyristor has a rise time of 0.14 μs and fall time of 0.065 μs. The turn-on and turn-off delays are 0.1 μs and 0.06 μs, respectively. In addition, this optically controlled thyristor is used as a control switch for the DC-DC Boost converter. The pn-diode used for the converter has the forward drop of 2.8 V and reverse breakdown of around 400 V.

Keywords: 4H-SiC, Boost converter, Optical triggering, Power semiconductor device, thyristor.

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Authors: JongKuk Kim, HernSoo Hahn, Uei-Joong Yoo, MyungJin Bae

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a method of alter duration in frequency domain that control prosody in real time after pitch alteration. If there has a method to alteration duration freely among prosody information, that may used in several fields such as speech impediment person's pronunciation proof reading or language study. The pitch alteration method used control prosody altered by PSOLA synthesis method which is in time domain processing method. However, the duration of pitch alteration speech is changed by the frequency domain. In this paper, we altered the duration with the method of duration alteration by Fast Fourier Transformation in frequency domain. Consequently, the intelligibility of the pitch and duration are controlled has a slight decrease than the case when only pitch is changed, but the proposed algorithm obtained the higher MOS score about naturalness.

Keywords: PSOLA, Pitch Alteration, Duration Control.

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Authors: C. Sanchis-Borras, J. M. Molina-Garcia-Pardo, P. Degauque, M. Lienard

Abstract:

The objective of this contribution is to study the performances in terms of bit error rate, of space-time code algorithms applied to MIMO communication in tunnels. Indeed, the channel characteristics in a tunnel are quite different than those of urban or indoor environment, due to the guiding effect of the tunnel. Therefore, MIMO channel matrices have been measured in a straight tunnel, in a frequency band around 3GHz. Correlation between array elements and properties of the MIMO matrices are first studied as a function of the distance between the transmitter and the receiver. Then, owing to a software tool simulating the link, predicted values of bit error rate are given for VLAST, OSTBC and QSTBC algorithms applied to a MIMO configuration with 2 or 4 array elements. Results are interpreted from the analysis of the channel properties.

Keywords: MIMO, propagation channel, space-time algorithms, tunnel.

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Authors: M. O. Bayram, H. B. Gencdal, N. O. Fercan, B. Basbug

Abstract:

Liquid limit, which is used as a measure of soil strength, can be detected by Casagrande and fall-cone testing methods. The two methods majorly diverge from each other in terms of operator dependency. The Casagrande method that is applied according to ASTM D4318-17 standards may give misleading results, especially if the calibration process is not performed well. In this study, to reveal the effect of calibration for drop height and amount of soil paste placement in the Casagrande cup, a series of tests were carried out by multipoint method as it is specified in the ASTM standards. The tests include the combination of 6 mm, 8 mm, 10 mm, and 12 mm drop heights and under-filled, half-filled, and full-filled Casagrande cups by kaolin samples. It was observed that during successive tests, the drop height of the cup deteriorated; hence the device was recalibrated before and after each test to provide the accuracy of the results. Besides, the tests by under-filled and full-filled samples for higher drop heights revealed lower liquid limit values than the lower drop heights revealed. For the half-filled samples, it was clearly seen that the liquid limit values did not change at all as the drop height increased, and this explains the function of standard specifications.

Keywords: Calibration, Casagrande cup method, drop height, kaolin, liquid limit, placing form.

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Authors: Tang Wei, Yang Xiaofeng, Gui Yewei, Du Yanxia

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Complex lifting entry was selected for precise landing performance during the Mars Science Laboratory entry. This study aims to develop the three-dimensional numerical method for precise computation and the surface panel method for rapid engineering prediction. Detailed flow field analysis for Mars exploration mission was performed by carrying on a series of fully three-dimensional Navier-Stokes computations. The static aerodynamic performance was then discussed, including the surface pressure, lift and drag coefficient, lift-to-drag ratio with the numerical and engineering method. Computation results shown that the shock layer is thin because of lower effective specific heat ratio, and that calculated results from both methods agree well with each other, and is consistent with the reference data. Aerodynamic performance analysis shows that CG location determines trim characteristics and pitch stability, and certain radially and axially shift of the CG location can alter the capsule lifting entry performance, which is of vital significance for the aerodynamic configuration design and inner instrument layout of the Mars entry capsule.

Keywords: Mars entry capsule, static aerodynamics, computational fluid dynamics, hypersonic.

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Authors: Mounira Taileb, Sami Touati

Abstract:

In Content-Based Image Retrieval systems it is important to use an efficient indexing technique in order to perform and accelerate the search in huge databases. The used indexing technique should also support the high dimensions of image features. In this paper we present the hierarchical index NOHIS-tree (Non Overlapping Hierarchical Index Structure) when we scale up to very large databases. We also present a study of the influence of clustering on search time. The performance test results show that NOHIS-tree performs better than SR-tree. Tests also show that NOHIS-tree keeps its performances in high dimensional spaces. We include the performance test that try to determine the number of clusters in NOHIS-tree to have the best search time.

Keywords: High-dimensional indexing, k-nearest neighborssearch.

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Authors: Saipunidzam Mahamad, Mohammad Noor Ibrahim, Rozana Kasbon, Chap Samol

Abstract:

Animated graph gives some good impressions in presenting information. However, not many people are able to produce it because the process of generating an animated graph requires some technical skills. This work presents Content Management System with Animated Graph (CMS-AG). It is a webbased system enabling users to produce an effective and interactive graphical report in a short time period. It allows for three levels of user authentication, provides update profile, account management, template management, graph management, and track changes. The system development applies incremental development approach, object-oriented concepts and Web programming technologies. The design architecture promotes new technology of reporting. It also helps user cut off unnecessary expenses, save time and learn new things on different levels of users. In this paper, the developed system is described.

Keywords: Animated Graph, Content Management System.

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Authors: Sina Babadi, K. M. Ebrahimi

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to determine the stress levels at the end of a long slender shaft such as a drilling assembly used in the oil or gas industry using a mathematical model in real-time. The torsional deflection experienced by this type of drilling shaft (about 4 KM length and 20 cm diameter hollow shaft with a thickness of 1 cm) can only be determined using a distributed modeling technique. The main objective of this project is to calculate angular velocity and torque at the end of the shaft by TLM method and also analyzing of the behavior of the system by transient response. The obtained result is compared with lumped modeling technique the importance of these results will be evident only after the mentioned comparison. Two systems have different transient responses and in this project because of the length of the shaft transient response is very important.

Keywords: Distributed Lumped modeling, Lumped modeling, Drill string, Angular Velocity, Torque.

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Authors: Hilmi Kuscu, Ahmet Cihan, Kamil Kahveci, Ugur Akyol

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In this study, a software has been developed to predict the optimum conditions for drying of cotton based yarn bobbins in a hot air dryer. For this purpose, firstly, a suitable drying model has been specified using experimental drying behavior for different values of drying parameters. Drying parameters in the experiments were drying temperature, drying pressure, and volumetric flow rate of drying air. After obtaining a suitable drying model, additional curve fittings have been performed to obtain equations for drying time and energy consumption taking into account the effects of drying parameters. Then, a software has been developed using Visual Basic programming language to predict the optimum drying conditions for drying time and energy consumption.

Keywords: Drying, bobbin, cotton, PLC control, Visual Basic.

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Authors: Abbas Alli Taghipoor Bafghi, Hosein Bakhoda, Fateme Khodaei Chegeni

Abstract:

An experimental investigation is carried out to establish the performance characteristics of a compression ignition engine while using cerium oxide nanoparticles as additive in neat diesel and diesel-biodiesel blends. In the first phase of the experiments, stability of neat diesel and diesel-biodiesel fuel blends with the addition of cerium oxide nanoparticles is analyzed. After series of experiments, it is found that the blends subjected to high speed blending followed by ultrasonic bath stabilization improves the stability. In the second phase, performance characteristics are studied using the stable fuel blends in a single cylinder four stroke engine coupled with an electrical dynamometer and a data acquisition system. The cerium oxide acts as an oxygen donating catalyst and provides oxygen for combustion. The activation energy of cerium oxide acts to burn off carbon deposits within the engine cylinder at the wall temperature and prevents the deposition of non-polar compounds on the cylinder wall results reduction in HC emissions. The tests revealed that cerium oxide nanoparticles can be used as additive in diesel and diesel-biodiesel blends to improve complete combustion of the fuel significantly.

Keywords: Diesel engine, cerium oxide, diesel-biodiesel blends, nanoparticles.

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Authors: Chunling Cong, Chris.P.Tsokos

Abstract:

The objective of the present research manuscript is to perform parametric, nonparametric, and decision tree analysis to evaluate two treatments that are being used for breast cancer patients. Our study is based on utilizing real data which was initially used in “Tamoxifen with or without breast irradiation in women of 50 years of age or older with early breast cancer" [1], and the data is supplied to us by N.A. Ibrahim “Decision tree for competing risks survival probability in breast cancer study" [2]. We agree upon certain aspects of our findings with the published results. However, in this manuscript, we focus on relapse time of breast cancer patients instead of survival time and parametric analysis instead of semi-parametric decision tree analysis is applied to provide more precise recommendations of effectiveness of the two treatments with respect to reoccurrence of breast cancer.

Keywords: decision tree, breast cancer treatments, parametricanalysis, non-parametric analysis

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Authors: Masami Usui

Abstract:

Kazuo Ishiguro’s challenging novel, The Buried Giant, embodies how contemporary writers and readers have to discover the voices buried in our history. By avoiding setting or connecting the modern and contemporary historical incidents such as World War II this time, Ishiguro ventures into retelling myth, transfiguring historical facts, and revealing what has been forgotten in a process of establishing history and creating mythology. As generally known, modernist writers in the twentieth century employed materials from authorized classical mythologies, especially Greek mythology. As an heir of this tradition, Ishiguro imposes his mission of criticizing the repeatedly occurring yet easily-forgotten history of dictatorship and a slaughter on mythology based on King Arthur and its related heroes and myths in Britain. On an open ground, Ishiguro can start his own mythical story and space.

Keywords: English literature, fantasy, global literature, mythology.

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Authors: Lun-Ping Hung, Nan-Chen Hsieh, Chia-Ling Ho, Chien-Liang Chen

Abstract:

Currently, most of distance learning courses can only deliver standard material to students. Students receive course content passively which leads to the neglect of the goal of education – “to suit the teaching to the ability of students". Providing appropriate course content according to students- ability is the main goal of this paper. Except offering a series of conventional learning services, abundant information available, and instant message delivery, a complete online learning environment should be able to distinguish between students- ability and provide learning courses that best suit their ability. However, if a distance learning site contains well-designed course content and design but fails to provide adaptive courses, students will gradually loss their interests and confidence in learning and result in ineffective learning or discontinued learning. In this paper, an intelligent tutoring system is proposed and it consists of several modules working cooperatively in order to build an adaptive learning environment for distance education. The operation of the system is based on the result of Self-Organizing Map (SOM) to divide students into different groups according to their learning ability and learning interests and then provide them with suitable course content. Accordingly, the problem of information overload and internet traffic problem can be solved because the amount of traffic accessing the same content is reduced.

Keywords: Distance Learning, Intelligent Tutoring System(ITS), Self-Organizing Map (SOM)

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Authors: Jyh-Da Wei, Hsin-Chen Tsai

Abstract:

This work presents a novel means of extracting fixedlength parameters from voice signals, such that words can be recognized in linear time. The power and the zero crossing rate are first calculated segment by segment from a voice signal; by doing so, two feature sequences are generated. We then construct an FIR system across these two sequences. The parameters of this FIR system, used as the input of a multilayer proceptron recognizer, can be derived by recursive LSE (least-square estimation), implying that the complexity of overall process is linear to the signal size. In the second part of this work, we introduce a weighting factor λ to emphasize recent input; therefore, we can further recognize continuous speech signals. Experiments employ the voice signals of numbers, from zero to nine, spoken in Mandarin Chinese. The proposed method is verified to recognize voice signals efficiently and accurately.

Keywords: Speech Recognition, FIR system, Recursive LSE, Multilayer Perceptron

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Authors: Ippei Kamihira, Takashi Nakajima, Taiyo Matsumura, Hikaru Miura, Takashi Ono

Abstract:

In this research, the goal was construction of a system by which multiple sensors were used to observe the daily life behavior of persons living alone (while respecting their privacy), using this information to judge such conditions as bad physical condition or falling in the home, etc., so that these abnormal conditions can be made known to relatives and third parties. The daily life patterns of persons living alone are expressed by the number of responses of sensors each time that a set time period has elapsed. By comparing data for the prior two weeks, it was possible to judge a situation as “normal” when the person was in good physical condition or as “abnormal” when the person was in bad physical condition.

Keywords: Sensors, Elderly living alone, Abnormality detection, Lifestyle habit.

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Authors: Latha Parameswaran, K. Anbumani

Abstract:

Multimedia security is an incredibly significant area of concern. The paper aims to discuss a robust image watermarking scheme, which can withstand geometric attacks. The source image is initially moment normalized in order to make it withstand geometric attacks. The moment normalized image is wavelet transformed. The first level wavelet transformed image is segmented into blocks if size 8x8. The product of mean and standard and standard deviation of each block is computed. The second level wavelet transformed image is divided into 8x8 blocks. The product of block mean and the standard deviation are computed. The difference between products in the two levels forms the watermark. The watermark is inserted by modulating the coefficients of the mid frequencies. The modulated image is inverse wavelet transformed and inverse moment normalized to generate the watermarked image. The watermarked image is now ready for transmission. The proposed scheme can be used to validate identification cards and financial instruments. The performance of this scheme has been evaluated using a set of parameters. Experimental results show the effectiveness of this scheme.

Keywords: Image moments, wavelets, content-based watermarking, moment normalization, geometric attacks.

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Authors: Leila Rashidian, Abbas Ebrahimi

Abstract:

The development of industrial activities, increase in fossil fuel consumption, vehicles, destruction of forests and grasslands, changes in land use, and population growth have caused to increase the amount of greenhouse gases especially CO₂ in the atmosphere in recent decades. This has led to global warming and climate change. In the present paper, we have investigated the trend of climate change according to the data simulation during the time interval of 2010-2030 in the Fars province. In this research, the daily climatic parameters such as maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and number of sunny hours during the 1977-2008 time interval for synoptic stations of Shiraz and Abadeh and during 1995-2008 for Lar stations and also the output of HADCM₃ model in 2010-2030 time interval have been used based on the A₂ propagation scenario. The results of the model show that the average temperature will increase by about 1 degree centigrade and the amount of precipitation will increase by 23.9% compared to the observational data. In conclusion, according to the temperature increase in this province, the amount of precipitation in the form of snow will be reduced and precipitations often will occur in the form of rain. This 1-degree centigrade increase during the season will reduce production by 6 to 10% because of shortening the growing period of wheat.

Keywords: Climate change, Lars.WG, HADCM3 model, Fars province, climatic parameters, A2 scenario.

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Authors: Liang-Ta Cheng, Ching-Yu Yang

Abstract:

Based on fast discrete cosine transform (FDCT), the authors present a high capacity and high perceived quality method for electrocardiogram (ECG) signal. By using a simple adjusting policy to the 1-dimentional (1-D) DCT coefficients, a large volume of secret message can be effectively embedded in an ECG host signal and be successfully extracted at the intended receiver. Simulations confirmed that the resulting perceived quality is good, while the hiding capability of the proposed method significantly outperforms that of existing techniques. In addition, our proposed method has a certain degree of robustness. Since the computational complexity is low, it is feasible for our method being employed in real-time applications.

Keywords: Data hiding, ECG steganography, fast discrete cosine transform, 1-D DCT bundle, real-time applications.

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Authors: Anders S. Kristensen, Dewan Ahsan, Saqib Mehmood, Shakeel Ahmed

Abstract:

Traffic accidents are a result of the convergence of hazards, malfunctioning of vehicles and human negligence that have adverse economic and health impacts and effects. Unfortunately, avoiding them completely is very difficult, but with quick response to rescue and first aid, the mortality rate of inflicted persons can be reduced significantly. Smart and innovative technologies can play a pivotal role to respond faster to traffic crash emergencies comparing conventional means of transportation. For instance, Rescue Emergency Drone (RED) can provide faster and real-time crash site risk assessment to emergency medical services, thereby helping them to quickly and accurately assess a situation, dispatch the right equipment and assist bystanders to treat inflicted person properly. To conduct a research in this regard, the case of a traffic roundabout that is prone to frequent traffic accidents on the outskirts of Esbjerg, a town located on western coast of Denmark is hypothetically considered. Along with manual calculations, Emergency Disaster Management Simulation (EDMSIM) has been used to verify the response time of RED from a fire station of the town to the presumed crash site. The results of the study demonstrate the robustness of RED into emergency services to help save lives. 

Keywords: Automated external defibrillator, medical emergency, fire and rescue services, response time, unmanned aerial system.

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Authors: Guy Leshem, Ya'acov Ritov

Abstract:

Traffic Management and Information Systems, which rely on a system of sensors, aim to describe in real-time traffic in urban areas using a set of parameters and estimating them. Though the state of the art focuses on data analysis, little is done in the sense of prediction. In this paper, we describe a machine learning system for traffic flow management and control for a prediction of traffic flow problem. This new algorithm is obtained by combining Random Forests algorithm into Adaboost algorithm as a weak learner. We show that our algorithm performs relatively well on real data, and enables, according to the Traffic Flow Evaluation model, to estimate and predict whether there is congestion or not at a given time on road intersections.

Keywords: Machine Learning, Boosting, Classification, TrafficCongestion, Data Collecting, Magnetic Loop Detectors, SignalizedIntersections, Traffic Signal Timing Optimization.

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Authors: Slimane Ouhmad, Abdellah Halimi

Abstract:

In this work, neural networks methods MLP type were applied to a database from an array of six sensors for the detection of three toxic gases. The choice of the number of hidden layers and the weight values are influential on the convergence of the learning algorithm. We proposed, in this article, a mathematical formula to determine the optimal number of hidden layers and good weight values based on the method of back propagation of errors. The results of this modeling have improved discrimination of these gases and optimized the computation time. The model presented here has proven to be an effective application for the fast identification of toxic gases.

Keywords: Back-propagation, Computing time, Fast identification, MLP neural network, Number of neurons in the hidden layer.

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Authors: Zohreh Bang Tavakoli, Shuktika Chatterjee

Abstract:

This study investigates the fiscal policy impact on countries’ economic growth in developing countries with a different external debt level. The fiscal policy effectiveness has been re-emphasized in the global financial crisis of 2008 with the external debt as its new contemporary driver. Different theories have proposed the economic consequence of fiscal policy, specifically for developing countries. However, fiscal policy literature is lacking research regarding the fiscal policy’s effectiveness with the external debt’s contributions through comprehensive study. Also, high levels of external debt will influence economic growth. Through foreign resources and channel of investment in which high level of debt decreases the amount of foreign investment in the developing countries. The finding of this study suggests that only countries with a low external debt level and appropriate fiscal policies and good quality institutions can gain the proper quantity and quality of foreign investors in which will help the economic growth. For this, this research is examining the impact of fiscal policy on developing countries' economic growth in the situation of different external debt levels.

Keywords: fiscal policy, external debt, gross domestic product, developing countries

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Authors: Mehdi Basikhasteh, Mohamad A. Movafaghpour

Abstract:

This paper explores university course timetabling problem. There are several characteristics that make scheduling and timetabling problems particularly difficult to solve: they have huge search spaces, they are often highly constrained, they require sophisticated solution representation schemes, and they usually require very time-consuming fitness evaluation routines. Thus standard evolutionary algorithms lack of efficiency to deal with them. In this paper we have proposed a memetic algorithm that incorporates the problem specific knowledge such that most of chromosomes generated are decoded into feasible solutions. Generating vast amount of feasible chromosomes makes the progress of search process possible in a time efficient manner. Experimental results exhibit the advantages of the developed Hybrid Genetic Algorithm than the standard Genetic Algorithm.

Keywords: University Course Timetabling, Memetic Algorithm, Biased Chance Assignment, Optimization.

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Authors: Gkolfo I. Smani, Vasileios Megalooikonomou

Abstract:

Influence and influence diffusion have been studied extensively in social networks. However, most existing literature on this task are limited on static networks, ignoring the fact that the interactions between users change over time. In this paper, the problem of maximizing influence diffusion in dynamic social networks, i.e., the case of networks that change over time is studied. The DM algorithm is an extension of Matrix Influence (MATI) algorithm and solves the Influence Maximization (IM) problem in dynamic networks and is proposed under the Linear Threshold (LT) and Independent Cascade (IC) models. Experimental results show that our proposed algorithm achieves a diffusion performance better by 1.5 times than several state-of-the-art algorithms and comparable results in diffusion scale with the Greedy algorithm. Also, the proposed algorithm is 2.4 times faster than previous methods.

Keywords: Influence maximization, dynamic social networks, diffusion, social influence.

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Authors: Joon-young Jung, Dong-oh Kang, Chang-seok Bae

Abstract:

Power consumption is rapidly increased in data centers because the number of data center is increased and more the scale of data center become larger. Therefore, it is one of key research items to reduce power consumption in data center. The peak power of a typical server is around 250 watts. When a server is idle, it continues to use around 60% of the power consumed when in use, though vendors are putting effort into reducing this “idle" power load. Servers tend to work at only around a 5% to 20% utilization rate, partly because of response time concerns. An average of 10% of servers in their data centers was unused. In those reason, we propose dynamic power management system to reduce power consumption in green data center. Experiment result shows that about 55% power consumption is reduced at idle time.

Keywords: Data Center, Green IT, Management Server, Power Saving.

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Authors: Abderrahmane El Kachani, El Mahjoub Chakir, Anass Ait Laachir, Abdelhamid Niaaniaa, Jamal Zerouaoui, Tarik Jarou

Abstract:

This paper presents a wind turbine based on the doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) connected to the utility grid through a shunt active power filter (SAPF). The whole system is controlled by a double nonlinear predictive controller (DNPC). A Taylor series expansion is used to predict the outputs of the system. The control law is calculated by optimization of the cost function. The first nonlinear predictive controller (NPC) is designed to ensure the high performance tracking of the rotor speed and regulate the rotor current of the DFIG, while the second one is designed to control the SAPF in order to compensate the harmonic produces by the three-phase diode bridge supplied by a passive circuit (rd, Ld). As a result, we obtain sinusoidal waveforms of the stator voltage and stator current. The proposed nonlinear predictive controllers (NPCs) are validated via simulation on a 1.5 MW DFIG-based wind turbine connected to an SAPF. The results obtained appear to be satisfactory and promising.

Keywords: Wind power, doubly fed induction generator, shunt active power filter, double nonlinear predictive controller.

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Authors: EL-Sayed M. M. EL-Refaie, Mohamed R. Salem, Wael A. Ahmed

Abstract:

Power systems and transformer are intrinsic apparatus, therefore its reliability and safe operation is important to determine their operation conditions, and the industry uses quality control tests in the insulation design of oil filled transformers. Hence the service period effect on AC dielectric strength is significant. The effect of aging on transformer oil physical, chemical and electrical properties was studied using the international testing methods for the evaluation of transformer oil quality. The study was carried out on six transformers operate in the field and for monitoring periods over twenty years. The properties which are strongly time dependent were specified and those which have a great impact on the transformer oil acidity, breakdown voltage and dissolved gas analysis were defined. Several tests on the transformers oil were studied to know the time of purifying or changing it, moreover prediction of the characteristics of it under different operation conditions.

Keywords: Dissolved Gas Analysis, Prediction, Purifying and Changing.

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Authors: Y. Yılmaz, C. Ünal, A. Dursun

Abstract:

Distribution channels play significant role for hotels. Direct and indirect selling options of hotel rooms have been increased especially with the help of new technologies, i.e. hotel’s own web sites and online booking sites. Although these options emerged as tools for diversifying the distribution channels, vast number of hotels -mostly resort hotels- is still heavily dependent upon international tour operators when selling their products. On the other hand, hotel sector is so vulnerable against crises. Economic, political or any other crisis can affect hotels very badly and so it is critical to have the right balance of distribution channel to avoid the adverse impacts of a crisis. In this study, it is aimed to search the impacts of a general crisis on the selling prices of hotels which have different weights of distribution channels. The study was done in Turkey where various crises occurred in 2015 and 2016 which had great negative impacts on Turkish tourism and led enormous occupancy rate and selling price reductions. 112 upscale resort hotel in Antalya, which is the most popular tourism destination of Turkey, joined to the research. According to the results, hotels with high dependency to international tour operators are more forced to reduce their room prices in crisis time compared to the ones which use their own web sites more. It was also found that the decline in room prices is limited for hotels which are working with national tour operators and travel agencies in crisis time.

Keywords: Marketing channels, crisis, hotel, international tour operators, online travel agencies.

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