Search results for: Uncertainty modeling

Authors: M. Sedighizadeh, A. Rezazadeh

Abstract:

A method has been developed for preparing load models for power flow and stability. The load modeling (LOADMOD) computer software transforms data on load class mix, composition, and characteristics into the from required for commonly–used power flow and transient stability simulation programs. Typical default data have been developed for load composition and characteristics. This paper defines LOADMOD software and describes the dynamic and static load modeling techniques used in this software and results of initial testing for BAKHTAR power system.

Keywords: Load Modelling, Static, Power Flow.

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Authors: Tsuyoshi Okita

Abstract:

For a given specific problem an efficient algorithm has been the matter of study. However, an alternative approach orthogonal to this approach comes out, which is called a reduction. In general for a given specific problem this reduction approach studies how to convert an original problem into subproblems. This paper proposes a formal modeling language to support this reduction approach in order to make a solver quickly. We show three examples from the wide area of learning problems. The benefit is a fast prototyping of algorithms for a given new problem. It is noted that our formal modeling language is not intend for providing an efficient notation for data mining application, but for facilitating a designer who develops solvers in machine learning.

Keywords: Formal language, statistical inference problem, reduction.

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Authors: Jaewon Jang, Gregory R. Miller

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This paper presents work characterizing finite element performance boundaries within which live, interactive finite element modeling is feasible on current and emerging systems. These results are based on wide-ranging tests performed using a prototype finite element program implemented specifically for this study, thereby enabling the unified investigation of numerous direct and iterative solver strategies and implementations in a variety of modeling contexts. The results are intended to be useful for researchers interested in interactive analysis by providing baseline performance estimates, to give guidance in matching solution strategies to problem domains, and to spur further work addressing the challenge of extending the present boundaries.

Keywords: Finite Elements, Interactive Modeling, NumericalAnalysis.

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Authors: Zakari Yaou, Lirong Cui

Abstract:

In a product development process, understanding the functional behavior of the system, the role of components in achieving functions and failure modes if components/subsystem fails its required function will help develop appropriate design validation and verification program for reliability assessment. The integration of these three issues will help design and reliability engineers in identifying weak spots in design and planning future actions and testing program. This case study demonstrate the advantage of unascertained theory described in the subjective cognition uncertainty, and then applies blind number (BN) theory in describing the uncertainty of the mechanical system failure process and the same time used the same theory in bringing out another mechanical reliability system model. The practical calculations shows the BN Model embodied the characters of simply, small account of calculation but betterforecasting capability, which had the value of macroscopic discussion to some extent.

Keywords: Mechanical structure Design, time-dependent stochastic process, unascertained information, blind number theory.

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Authors: A. Pedišius, V. Janušas, A. Bertašienė

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The paper depicts air velocity values, reproduced by laser Doppler anemometer (LDA) and ultrasonic anemometer (UA), relations with calculated ones from flow rate measurements using the gas meter which calibration uncertainty is ± (0.15 – 0.30) %. Investigation had been performed in channel installed in aerodynamical facility used as a part of national standard of air velocity. Relations defined in a research let us confirm the LDA and UA for air velocity reproduction to be the most advantageous measures. The results affirm ultrasonic anemometer to be reliable and favourable instrument for measurement of mean velocity or control of velocity stability in the velocity range of 0.05 m/s – 10 (15) m/s when the LDA used. The main aim of this research is to investigate low velocity regularities, starting from 0.05 m/s, including region of turbulent, laminar and transitional air flows. Theoretical and experimental results and brief analysis of it are given in the paper. Maximum and mean velocity relations for transitional air flow having unique distribution are represented. Transitional flow having distinctive and different from laminar and turbulent flow characteristics experimentally have not yet been analysed.

Keywords: Laser Doppler anemometer, ultrasonic anemometer, air flow velocities, transitional flow regime, measurement, uncertainty.

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Authors: Rana Abdul Jabbar Khan, Muhammad Akmal

Abstract:

Personal computers draw non-sinusoidal current with odd harmonics more significantly. Power Quality of distribution networks is severely affected due to the flow of these generated harmonics during the operation of electronic loads. In this paper, mathematical modeling of odd harmonics in current like 3rd, 5th, 7th and 9th influencing the power quality has been presented. Live signals have been captured with the help of power quality analyzer for analysis purpose. The interesting feature is that Total Harmonic Distortion (THD) in current decreases with the increase of nonlinear loads has been verified theoretically. The results obtained using mathematical expressions have been compared with the practical results and exciting results have been found.

Keywords: Harmonic Distortion, Mathematical Modeling, Power Quality.

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Authors: Nitin Singh, Meng Ling, Talha Ahmed, Tianxia Zhao, Reinier van de Pol

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We propose the use of Reinforcement Learning (RL) as a viable alternative for optimizing supply chain management, particularly in scenarios with stochasticity in product demands. RL’s adaptability to changing conditions and its demonstrated success in diverse fields of sequential decision-making make it a promising candidate for addressing supply chain problems. We investigate the impact of demand fluctuations in a multi-product supply chain system and develop RL agents with learned generalizable policies. We provide experimentation details for training RL agents and a statistical analysis of the results. We study generalization ability of RL agents for different demand uncertainty scenarios and observe superior performance compared to the agents trained with fixed demand curves. The proposed methodology has the potential to lead to cost reduction and increased profit for companies dealing with frequent inventory movement between supply and demand nodes.

Keywords: Inventory Management, Reinforcement Learning, Supply Chain Optimization, Uncertainty.

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Authors: A. Elsayed Ahmed, A. Hafez, A. N. Ouda, H. Eldin Hussein Ahmed, H. Mohamed Abd-Elkader

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Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) are playing increasingly prominent roles in defense programs and defense strategies around the world. Technology advancements have enabled the development of it to do many excellent jobs as reconnaissance, surveillance, battle fighters, and communications relays. Simulating a small unmanned aerial vehicle (SUAV) dynamics and analyzing its behavior at the preflight stage is too important and more efficient. The first step in the UAV design is the mathematical modeling of the nonlinear equations of motion. . In this paper, a survey with a standard method to obtain the full non-linear equations of motion is utilized, and then the linearization of the equations according to a steady state flight condition (trimming) is derived. This modeling technique is applied to an Ultrastick-25e fixed wing UAV to obtain the valued linear longitudinal and lateral models. At the end the model is checked by matching between the behavior of the states of the nonlinear UAV and the resulted linear model with doublet at the control surfaces.

Keywords: Equations of motion, linearization, modeling, nonlinear model, UAV.

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Authors: Fares Innal, Yves Dutuit, Mourad Chebila

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The object of this work is the probabilistic performance evaluation of safety instrumented systems (SIS), i.e. the average probability of dangerous failure on demand (PFD_avg) and the average frequency of failure (PFH), taking into account the uncertainties related to the different parameters that come into play: failure rate (λ), common cause failure proportion (β), diagnostic coverage (DC)... This leads to an accurate and safe assessment of the safety integrity level (SIL) inherent to the safety function performed by such systems. This aim is in keeping with the requirement of the IEC 61508 standard with respect to handling uncertainty. To do this, we propose an approach that combines (1) Monte Carlo simulation and (2) fuzzy sets. Indeed, the first method is appropriate where representative statistical data are available (using pdf of the relating parameters), while the latter applies in the case characterized by vague and subjective information (using membership function). The proposed approach is fully supported with a suitable computer code.

Keywords: Fuzzy sets, Monte Carlo simulation, Safety instrumented system, Safety integrity level.

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Authors: Anthony Spiteri Staines

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This paper examines the modeling and analysis of a cruise control system using a Petri net based approach, task graphs, invariant analysis and behavioral properties. It shows how the structures used can be verified and optimized.

Keywords: Software Engineering, Real Time Analysis andDesign, Petri Nets, Task Graphs, Parallelism.

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Authors: Nasim Ullah, Shaoping Wang

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ELS is an important ground based hardware in the loop simulator used for aerodynamics torque loading experiments of the actuators under test. This work focuses on improvement of the transient response of torque controller with parameters uncertainty of Electrical Load Simulator (ELS).The parameters of load simulator are estimated online and the model is updated, eliminating the model error and improving the steady state torque tracking response of torque controller. To improve the Transient control performance the gain of robust term of SMC is updated online using fuzzy logic system based on the amount of uncertainty in parameters of load simulator. The states of load simulator which cannot be measured directly are estimated using luenberger observer with update of new estimated parameters. The stability of the control scheme is verified using Lyapunov theorem. The validity of proposed control scheme is verified using simulations.

Keywords: ELS, Observer, Transient Performance, SMC, Extra Torque, Fuzzy Logic.

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Authors: Farhad Kolahan, Mohammad Bironro

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This paper addresses modeling and optimization of process parameters in powder mixed electrical discharge machining (PMEDM). The process output characteristics include metal removal rate (MRR) and electrode wear rate (EWR). Grain size of Aluminum powder (S), concentration of the powder (C), discharge current (I) pulse on time (T) are chosen as control variables to study the process performance. The experimental results are used to develop the regression models based on second order polynomial equations for the different process characteristics. Then, a genetic algorithm (GA) has been employed to determine optimal process parameters for any desired output values of machining characteristics.

Keywords: Regression modeling, PMEDM, GeneticAlgorithm, Optimization.

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Authors: Orhan Feyzioğlu, Gülçin Büyüközkan

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As a vital activity for companies, new product development (NPD) is also a very risky process due to the high uncertainty degree encountered at every development stage and the inevitable dependence on how previous steps are successfully accomplished. Hence, there is an apparent need to evaluate new product initiatives systematically and make accurate decisions under uncertainty. Another major concern is the time pressure to launch a significant number of new products to preserve and increase the competitive power of the company. In this work, we propose an integrated decision-making framework based on neural networks and fuzzy logic to make appropriate decisions and accelerate the evaluation process. We are especially interested in the two initial stages where new product ideas are selected (go/no go decision) and the implementation order of the corresponding projects are determined. We show that this two-staged intelligent approach allows practitioners to roughly and quickly separate good and bad product ideas by making use of previous experiences, and then, analyze a more shortened list rigorously.

Keywords: Decision Making, Neural Networks, Fuzzy Theory and Systems, Choquet Integral, New Product Development.

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Authors: Ahmed S. Al-Abdulwahab

Abstract:

Generation system reliability assessment is an important task which can be performed using deterministic or probabilistic techniques. The probabilistic approaches have significant advantages over the deterministic methods. However, more complicated modeling is required by the probabilistic approaches. Power generation model is a basic requirement for this assessment. One form of the generation models is the well known capacity outage probability table (COPT). Different analytical techniques have been used to construct the COPT. These approaches require considerable mathematical modeling of the generating units. The unit-s models are combined to build the COPT which will add more burdens on the process of creating the COPT. Decimal to Binary Conversion (DBC) technique is widely and commonly applied in electronic systems and computing This paper proposes a novel utilization of the DBC to create the COPT without engaging in analytical modeling or time consuming simulations. The simple binary representation , “0 " and “1 " is used to model the states o f generating units. The proposed technique is proven to be an effective approach to build the generation model.

Keywords: Decimal to Binary, generation, reliability.

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Authors: Phumelele P. Kubheka, Pius A. Owolawi, Gbolahan Aiyetoro

Abstract:

Twitter is one of the most popular social media platforms where users share their opinions on different subjects. Twitter can be considered a great source for mining text due to the high volumes of data generated through the platform daily. Many industries such as telecommunication companies can leverage the availability of Twitter data to better understand their markets and make an appropriate business decision. This study performs topic modeling on Twitter data using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). The obtained results are benchmarked with another topic modeling technique, Latent Semantic Indexing (LSI). The study aims to retrieve topics on a Twitter dataset containing user tweets on South African Telcos. Results from this study show that LSI is much faster than LDA. However, LDA yields better results with higher topic coherence by 8% for the best-performing model in this experiment. A higher topic coherence score indicates better performance of the model.

Keywords: Big data, latent Dirichlet allocation, latent semantic indexing, Telco, topic modeling, Twitter.

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Authors: Gionata Carmignani, Mario G. C. A. Cimino, Franco Failli

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Business Processes (BPs) are the key instrument to understand how companies operate at an organizational level, taking an as-is view of the workflow, and how to address their issues by identifying a to-be model. In last year’s, the BP Model and Notation (BPMN) has become a de-facto standard for modeling processes. However, this standard does not incorporate explicitly the Problem- Solving (PS) knowledge in the Process Modeling (PM) results. Thus, such knowledge cannot be shared or reused. To narrow this gap is today a challenging research area. In this paper we present a framework able to capture the PS knowledge and to improve a workflow. This framework extends the BPMN specification by incorporating new general-purpose elements. A pilot scenario is also presented and discussed.

Keywords: Business Process Management, BPMN, Problem Solving, Process mapping.

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Authors: Mohamed A. Khlifi, Badr M. Alshammari

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This paper discusses the general methods to saturation in the steady-state, two axis (d & q) frame models of synchronous machines. In particular, the important role of the magnetic coupling between the d-q axes (cross-magnetizing phenomenon), is demonstrated. For that purpose, distinct methods of saturation modeling of dumper synchronous machine with cross-saturation are identified, and detailed models synthesis in d-q axes. A number of models are given in the final developed form. The procedure and the novel models are verified by a critical application to prove the validity of the method and the equivalence between all developed models is reported. Advantages of some of the models over the existing ones and their applicability are discussed.

Keywords: Cross-magnetizing, models synthesis, synchronous machine, saturated modeling, state-space vectors.

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Authors: Yasuo Obikane

Abstract:

This work is to study a roll of the fluctuating density gradient in the compressible flows for the computational fluid dynamics (CFD). A new anisotropy tensor with the fluctuating density gradient is introduced, and is used for an invariant modeling technique to model the turbulent density gradient correlation equation derived from the continuity equation. The modeling equation is decomposed into three groups: group proportional to the mean velocity, and that proportional to the mean strain rate, and that proportional to the mean density. The characteristics of the correlation in a wake are extracted from the results by the two dimensional direct simulation, and shows the strong correlation with the vorticity in the wake near the body. Thus, it can be concluded that the correlation of the density gradient is a significant parameter to describe the quick generation of the turbulent property in the compressible flows.

Keywords: Turbulence Modeling , Density Gradient Correlation, Compressible

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Authors: Rafayel A. Azizyan, Aram E. Gevogyan, Valeri B. Arakelyan, Emil S. Gevorgyan

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The mathematical modeling of different biological processes is usually used to predict or assess behavior of systems in which these processes take place. This study deals with mathematical and computer modeling of bi-substrate enzymatic reactions with ping-pong mechanism, which play an important role in different biochemical pathways. Besides that, three models of competitive inhibition were designed using different software packages. The main objective of this study is to represent the results from in silico investigation of bi-substrate enzymatic reactions with ordered pingpong mechanism in the presence of competitive inhibitors, as well as to describe in details the inhibition effects. The simulation of the models with certain kinetic parameters allowed investigating the behavior of reactions as well as determined some interesting aspects concerning influence of different cases of competitive inhibition. Simultaneous presence of two inhibitors, competitive to the S1 and S2 substrates have been studied. Moreover, we have found the pattern of simultaneous influence of both inhibitors.

Keywords: Mathematical modeling, bi-substrate enzymatic reactions, ping-pong mechanism, competitive inhibition.

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Authors: Anwar Jarndal

Abstract:

In this paper, a genetic-neural-network (GNN) based large-signal model for GaN HEMTs is presented along with its parameters extraction procedure. The model is easy to construct and implement in CAD software and requires only DC and S-parameter measurements. An improved decomposition technique is used to model self-heating effect. Two GNN models are constructed to simulate isothermal drain current and power dissipation, respectively. The two model are then composed to simulate the drain current. The modeling procedure was applied to a packaged GaN-on-Si HEMT and the developed model is validated by comparing its large-signal simulation with measured data. A very good agreement between the simulation and measurement is obtained.

Keywords: GaN HEMT, computer-aided design & modeling, neural networks, genetic optimization.

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Authors: P. C. Tewari, Rajiv Kumar, Dinesh Khanduja

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This paper discusses the performance modeling and availability analysis of Yarn Dyeing System of a Textile Industry. The Textile Industry is a complex and repairable engineering system. Yarn Dyeing System of Textile Industry consists of five subsystems arranged in series configuration. For performance modeling and analysis of availability, a performance evaluating model has been developed with the help of mathematical formulation based on Markov-Birth-Death Process. The differential equations have been developed on the basis of Probabilistic Approach using a Transition Diagram. These equations have further been solved using normalizing condition in order to develop the steady state availability, a performance measure of the system concerned. The system performance has been further analyzed with the help of decision matrices. These matrices provide various availability levels for different combinations of failure and repair rates for various subsystems. The findings of this paper are therefore, considered to be useful for the analysis of availability and determination of the best possible maintenance strategies which can be implemented in future to enhance the system performance.

Keywords: Availability Analysis, Markov Process, Performance Modeling, Steady State Availability.

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Authors: Yun-Pang Flötteröd, Jakob Erdmann

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The human behaviors during evacuations are quite complex. One of the critical behaviors which affect the efficiency of evacuation is route choice. Therefore, the respective simulation modeling work needs to function properly. In this paper, Simulation of Urban Mobility’s (SUMO) current dynamic route modeling during evacuation, i.e. the rerouting functions, is examined with a real case study. The result consistency of the simulation and the reality is checked as well. Four influence factors (1) time to get information, (2) probability to cancel a trip, (3) probability to use navigation equipment, and (4) rerouting and information updating period are considered to analyze possible traffic impacts during the evacuation and to examine the rerouting functions in SUMO. Furthermore, some behavioral characters of the case study are analyzed with use of the corresponding detector data and applied in the simulation. The experiment results show that the dynamic route modeling in SUMO can deal with the proposed scenarios properly. Some issues and function needs related to route choice are discussed and further improvements are suggested.

Keywords: Evacuation, microscopic traffic simulation, rerouting, SUMO.

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Authors: Lambros V. Skarlas, Grigorios N. Beligiannis, Efstratios F. Georgopoulos, Adam V. Adamopoulos

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The aim of this contribution is to present a new approach in modeling the electrical activity of the human heart. A recurrent artificial neural network is being used in order to exhibit a subset of the dynamics of the electrical behavior of the human heart. The proposed model can also be used, when integrated, as a diagnostic tool of the human heart system. What makes this approach unique is the fact that every model is being developed from physiological measurements of an individual. This kind of approach is very difficult to apply successfully in many modeling problems, because of the complexity and entropy of the free variables describing the complex system. Differences between the modeled variables and the variables of an individual, measured at specific moments, can be used for diagnostic purposes. The sensor fusion used in order to optimize the utilization of biomedical sensors is another point that this paper focuses on. Sensor fusion has been known for its advantages in applications such as control and diagnostics of mechanical and chemical processes.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Diagnostic System, Health Condition Modeling Tool, Heart Diagnostics Model, Heart Electricity Model.

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Authors: Sema Kurtuluş, Kemal Kurtuluş

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The objective of this paper is to review and assess the methodological issues and problems in marketing research, data and knowledge mining in Turkey. As a summary, academic marketing research publications in Turkey have significant problems. The most vital problem seems to be related with modeling. Most of the publications had major weaknesses in modeling. There were also, serious problems regarding measurement and scaling, sampling and analyses. Analyses myopia seems to be the most important problem for young academia in Turkey. Another very important finding is the lack of publications on data and knowledge mining in the academic world.

Keywords: Marketing research, data mining, knowledge mining, research modeling, analyses.

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Authors: F. Hosseinpour, H. Hajihosseini

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Simulation is a very helpful and valuable work tool in manufacturing. It can be used in industrial field allowing the system`s behavior to be learnt and tested. Simulation provides a low cost, secure and fast analysis tool. It also provides benefits, which can be reached with many different system configurations. Topics to be discussed include: Applications, Modeling, Validating, Software and benefits of simulation. This paper provides a comprehensive literature review on research efforts in simulation.

Keywords: Manufacturing, modeling, simulation, training.

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Authors: Jatinder Kumar, Ajay Bansal

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The present study deals with the modeling and simulation of flow through an annular reactor at different hydrodynamic conditions using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to investigate the flow behavior. CFD modeling was utilized to predict velocity distribution and average velocity in the annular geometry. The results of CFD simulations were compared with the mathematically derived equations and already developed correlations for validation purposes. CFD modeling was found suitable for predicting the flow characteristics in annular geometry under laminar flow conditions. It was observed that CFD also provides local values of the parameters of interest in addition to the average values for the simulated geometry.

Keywords: Annular reactor, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), hydrodynamics, Rhodamine B

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Authors: R. Kongnuy, E. Naowanich

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In this paper we develop and analyze the model for the spread of Leptospirosis by age group in Thailand, between 1997 and 2010 by using mathematical modeling and computer simulation. Leptospirosis is caused by pathogenic spirochetes of the genus Leptospira. It is a zoonotic disease of global importance and an emerging health problem in Thailand. In Thailand, leptospirosis is a reportable disease, the top three age groups are 23.31% in 35-44 years olds group, 22.76% in 25-34 year olds group, 17.60% in 45-54 year olds group from reported leptospirosis between 1997 and 2010, with a peak in 35-44 year olds group. Our paper, the Leptosipirosis transmission by age group in Thailand is studied on the mathematical model. Some analytical and simulation results are presented.

Keywords: Age Group, Equilibrium State, Leptospirosis, Mathematical Modeling.

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Authors: Ibrahim A. Aref, Tarek El-Mihoub, Khadiga Ben Musa

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This paper presents Carrier Sense Multiple Access (CSMA) communication models based on SoC design methodology. Such a model can be used to support the modeling of the complex wireless communication systems. Therefore, the use of such communication model is an important technique in the construction of high-performance communication. SystemC has been chosen because it provides a homogeneous design flow for complex designs (i.e. SoC and IP-based design). We use a swarm system to validate CSMA designed model and to show how advantages of incorporating communication early in the design process. The wireless communication created through the modeling of CSMA protocol that can be used to achieve communication between all the agents and to coordinate access to the shared medium (channel).

Keywords: SystemC, modeling, simulation, CSMA.

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Authors: Noureddine Seddari, Mohamed Belaoued, Salah Bougueroua

Abstract:

The modeling of complex systems is generally based on the decomposition of their components into sub-systems easier to handle. This division has to be made in a methodical way. In this paper, we introduce an industrial control system modeling and simulation based on the Multi-Agent System (MAS) methodology AALAADIN and more particularly the underlying conceptual model Agent/Group/Role (AGR). Indeed, in this division using AGR model, the overall system is decomposed into sub-systems in order to improve the understanding of regulation and control systems, and to simplify the implementation of the obtained agents and their groups, which are implemented using the Multi-Agents Development KIT (MAD-KIT) platform. This approach appears to us to be the most appropriate for modeling of this type of systems because, due to the use of MAS, it is possible to model real systems in which very complex behaviors emerge from relatively simple and local interactions between many different individuals, therefore a MAS is well adapted to describe a system from the standpoint of the activity of its components, that is to say when the behavior of the individuals is complex (difficult to describe with equations). The main aim of this approach is the take advantage of the performance, the scalability and the robustness that are intuitively provided by MAS.

Keywords: Complex systems, modeling and simulation, industrial control system, MAS, AALAADIN, AGR, MAD-KIT.

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Authors: Yongsuk Jang Kim, Sun-Tae Chung, Boogyun Kim, Seongwon Cho

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Realistic 3D face model is more precise in representing pose, illumination, and expression of face than 2D face model so that it can be utilized usefully in various applications such as face recognition, games, avatars, animations, and etc. In this paper, we propose a 3D face modeling method based on 3D dense morphable shape model. The proposed 3D modeling method first constructs a 3D dense morphable shape model from 3D face scan data obtained using a 3D scanner. Next, the proposed method extracts and matches facial landmarks from 2D image sequence containing a face to be modeled, and then reconstructs 3D vertices coordinates of the landmarks using a factorization-based SfM technique. Then, the proposed method obtains a 3D dense shape model of the face to be modeled by fitting the constructed 3D dense morphable shape model into the reconstructed 3D vertices. Also, the proposed method makes a cylindrical texture map using 2D face image sequence. Finally, the proposed method generates a 3D face model by rendering the 3D dense face shape model using the cylindrical texture map. Through building processes of 3D face model by the proposed method, it is shown that the proposed method is relatively easy, fast and precise.

Keywords: 3D Face Modeling, 3D Morphable Shape Model, 3DReconstruction, 3D Correspondence.

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