Search results for: relief demand.

Authors: Kehinde Damilola Ilesanmi, Dev Datt Tewari

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South Africa is in its post-industrial era moving from the primary and secondary sector to the tertiary sector. The study investigated the impact of the disaggregated energy consumption (coal, oil, and electricity) on the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors of the economy between 1980 and 2012 in South Africa. Using vector error correction model, it was established that South Africa is an energy dependent economy, and that energy (especially electricity and oil) is a limiting factor of growth. This implies that implementation of energy conservation policies may hamper economic growth. Output growth is significantly outpacing energy supply, which has necessitated load shedding. To meet up the excess energy demand, there is a need to increase the generating capacity which will necessitate increased investment in the electricity sector as well as strategic steps to increase oil production. There is also need to explore more renewable energy sources, in order to meet the growing energy demand without compromising growth and environmental sustainability. Policy makers should also pursue energy efficiency policies especially at sectoral level of the economy.

Keywords: Causality, economic growth, energy consumption, hypothesis, sectoral output.

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Authors: G. Vinitha, A. Ramalingam

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In view of a possible application in optical data storage devices, diffraction grating efficiency of an organic dye, Acid Fuchsin doped in PMMA matrix was studied under excitation with CW diode pumped Nd: YAG laser at 532 nm. The open aperture Zscan of dye doped polymer displayed saturable absorption and the closed aperture Z-scan of the samples exhibited negative nonlinearity. The diffraction efficiency of the grating is the ratio of the intensity of the first order diffracted power to the incident read beam power. The dye doped polymer films were found to be good media for recording. It is observed that the formation of gratings strongly depend on the concentration of dye in the polymer film, the intensity ratios of the writing beams and the angle between the writing beams. It has been found that efficient writing can be made at an angle of 20o and when the intensity ratio of the writing beams is unity.

Keywords: Diffraction efficiency, Nonlinear Optical material, saturable absorption, Surface-relief-gratings.

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Authors: Tamás Hartványi, Ferenc Tóth

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European telecommunication distribution center performance is measured by service lead time and quality. Operation model is CTO (customized to order) namely, a high mix customization of telecommunication network equipment and parts. CTO operation contains material receiving, warehousing, network and server assembly to order and configure based on customer specifications. Variety of the product and orders does not support mass production structure. One of the success factors to satisfy customer is to have a proper aggregated planning method for the operation in order to have optimized human resources and highly efficient asset utilization. Research will investigate several methods and find proper way to have an order book simulation where practical optimization problem may contain thousands of variables and the simulation running times of developed algorithms were taken into account with high importance. There are two operation research models that were developed, customer demand is given in orders, no change over time, customer demands are given for product types, and changeover time is constant.

Keywords: CTO, aggregated planning, demand simulation, changeover time.

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Authors: Ahmed, M., Yasser A., Mahmoud H., Ahmed, A., Abdulla M. S., Nazar, S.

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Strut-and-Tie Models (STM) for the design of concrete beams, comprising of struts, ties, nodes as the basic tools, is conceptually simple, but its realization for complex concrete structure is not straightforward and depends on flow of internal forces in the structure. STM technique has won wide acceptance for deep member and shear design. STM technique is a unified approach that considers all load effects (bending, axial, shear, and torsion) simultaneously, not just applicable to shear loading only. The present study is to portray Strut-and-Tie Modeling based on Load-Transfer-Mechanisms as a unified method to analyze, design and detailing for deep and slender concrete beams. Three shear span- effective depth ratio (a/ d) are recommended for the modeling of STM elements corresponding to dominant load paths. The study also discusses the research work conduct on effective stress of concrete, tie end anchorage, and transverse reinforcement demand under different load transfer mechanism. It is also highlighted that to make the STM versatile tool for design of beams applicable to all shear spans, the effective stress of concrete and, transverse reinforcement demand, inclined angle of strut, and anchorage requirements of tie bars is required to be correlated with respect to load transfer mechanism. The country code provisions are to be modified and updated to apply for generalized design of concrete deep and slender member using load transfer mechanism based STM technique. Examples available in literature are reanalyzed with refined STM based on load transfer mechanisms and results are compared. It is concluded from the results that proposed approach will require true reinforcement demand depending on dominant force transfer action in concrete beam.

Keywords: Deep member, Load transfer mechanism, Strut-and-Tie Model, Strut, Truss.

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Authors: Mohammad Mahdi Jabbari, Fardin Boustani

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The reservoir of Kowsar dam supply water for different usages such as aquaculture farms , drinking, agricultural and industrial usages for some provinces in south of Iran. The Kowsar dam is located next to the city of Dehdashat in Kohgiluye and Boyerahmad province in southern Iran. There are some towns and villages on the Kowsar dam watersheds, which Dehdasht and Choram are the most important and populated twons in this area, which can to be sources of pollution for water reservoir of the Kowsar dam . This study was done to determine of water pollution of the Kowsar dam reservoir which is one of the most important water resources of Kohkiloye and Boyerahmad and Bushehr provinces in south-west Iran. In this study , water samples during 12 months were collected to examine Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) and Dissolved Oxygen(DO) as a criterion for evaluation of water pollution of the reservoir. In summary ,the study has shown Maximum, average and minimum levels of BOD have observed 25.9 ,9.15 and 2.3 mg/L respectively and statistical parameters of data such as standard deviation , variance and skewness have calculated 7.88, 62 and 1.54 respectively. Finally the results were compared with Iranian national standards. Among the analyzed samples, as the maximum value of BOD (25.9 mg/L) was observed at the May 2010 , was within the maximum admissible limits by the Iranian standards.

Keywords: Kowsar dam, Biochemical Oxygen Demand, water pollution

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Authors: Sara Mohtashami, Habib Rajabi Mashhadi

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With the growth of electricity generation from gas energy gas pipeline reliability can substantially impact the electric generation. A physical disruption to pipeline or to a compressor station can interrupt the flow of gas or reduce the pressure and lead to loss of multiple gas-fired electric generators, which could dramatically reduce the supplied power and threaten the power system security. Gas pressure drops during peak loading time on pipeline system, is a common problem in network with no enough transportation capacity which limits gas transportation and causes many problem for thermal domain power systems in supplying their demand. For a feasible generation scheduling planning in networks with no sufficient gas transportation capacity, it is required to consider gas pipeline constraints in solving the optimization problem and evaluate the impacts of gas consumption in power plants on gas pipelines operating condition. This paper studies about operating of gas fired power plants in critical conditions when the demand of gas and electricity peak together. An integrated model of gas and electric model is used to consider the gas pipeline constraints in the economic dispatch problem of gas-fueled thermal generator units.

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Authors: Slavka Zeković

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A preliminary evaluation of the urban land system is presented in the article together with the instruments of land policy in Serbia. The main reason for the analysis is demand for definition of reform framework for urban land management in Serbia in the period of transition towards market-led system. It is concluded that due to the limitations of the current regulation it will be impossible in the future to apply market principles in the urban land policy (supply and demand of land, land capitalization, investment efficiency, et al.). Based on the estimation that the urban land system and land policy are key factors of competitiveness between regions and towns in Serbia, it is necessary to initiate changes in this field. There are indicated on an option of privatization of urban public land and possible establishment of leasehold land. A comparative analysis of the possibilities of the reform urban land system in Serbia has been carried out in relation to two approaches of market systems: (a) with dominant private ownership of urban land (neo/liberal approach) and (b) with dominant public ownership of urban land (system of leasehold)whose findings can be a basis for further study of the new system in Serbia.. The attanied results are part of studies matter for the making of Strategy of territorial development of Serbia.

Keywords: Urban Land System, Urban Land Management, Instruments of Land Policy, Evaluation, Market.

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Authors: Fei Peng, Jun Yuan, Chen Fan, Fan Jiang, Qian Sun, Yudi Liu

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Although Earth Station in Motion (ESIM) services are widely used and there is a huge market demand around the world, International Telecommunication Union (ITU) does not have unified conclusion for the use of ESIM yet. ESIM are Mobile Satellite Services (MSS) due to its mobile-based attributes, while multiple administrations want to use ESIM in Fixed Satellite Service (FSS). However, Radio Regulations (RR) have strict distinction between MSS and FSS. In this case, ITU has been very controversial because this kind of application will violate the RR Article and the conflict will bring risks to the global deployment. Thus, this paper illustrates the development of rules, regulations, standards concerning ESIM and the radio spectrum usage of ESIM in different regions around the world. Firstly, the basic rules, standard and definition of ITU’s Radiocommunication Sector (ITU-R) is introduced. Secondly, the World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC) agenda item on radio spectrum allocation for ESIM, e.g. in C/Ku/Ka band, is introduced and multi-view on the radio spectrum allocation is elaborated, especially on 19.7-20.2 GHz & 29.5-30.0 GHz. Then, some ITU-R Recommendations and Reports are analyzed on the specific technique to enable these ESIM to communicate with Geostationary Earth Orbit Satellite (GSO) space stations in the FSS without causing interference at levels in excess of that caused by conventional FSS earth stations. Meanwhile, the opposite opinion on not allocating EISM service in FSS frequency band is also elaborated. Finally, based on the ESIM’s future application, the ITU-R standards development trend is forecasted. In conclusion, using radio spectrum resource in an equitable, rational and efficient manner is the basic guideline of ITU. Although it is not a good approach to obstruct the revise of RR when there is a large demand for radio spectrum resource in satellite industry, still the propulsion and global demand of the whole industry may face difficulties on the unclear application in modify rules of RR.

Keywords: Earth Station in motion, ITU standards, radio regulations, radio spectrum, satellite communication.

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Authors: Saad Roustom, Hajo Ribberink

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In most cities in the world, traffic has increased strongly over the last decades, causing high levels of congestion and deteriorating inner-city air quality. This study analyzes the impact of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) on traffic performance and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under different CAV penetration rates in mixed fleet environments of CAVs and driver-operated vehicles (DOVs) and under three different traffic demand levels. Utilizing meso-scale traffic simulations of the City of Ottawa, Canada, the research evaluates the traffic performance of three distinct CAV driving behaviors—Cautious, Normal, and Aggressive—at penetration rates of 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%, across three different traffic demand levels. The study employs advanced correlation models to estimate GHG emissions. The results reveal that Aggressive and Normal CAVs generally reduce traffic congestion and GHG emissions, with their benefits being more pronounced at higher penetration rates (50% to 100%) and elevated traffic demand levels. On the other hand, Cautious CAVs exhibit an increase in both traffic congestion and GHG emissions. However, results also show deteriorated traffic flow conditions when introducing 25% penetration rates of any type of CAVs. Aggressive CAVs outperform all other driving at improving traffic flow conditions and reducing GHG emissions. The findings of this study highlight the crucial role CAVs can play in enhancing urban traffic performance and mitigating the adverse impact of transportation on the environment. This research advocates for the adoption of effective CAV-related policies by regulatory bodies to optimize traffic flow and reduce GHG emissions. By providing insights into the impact of CAVs, this study aims to inform strategic decision-making and stimulate the development of sustainable urban mobility solutions.

Keywords: Connected and automated vehicles, congestion, GHG emissions, mixed fleet environment, traffic performance, traffic simulations.

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Authors: Sudhir Kumar Tiwari

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The paper demonstrates a methodology that can be used at an early design stage of any conventional aircraft. This research activity assesses the feasibility derivation of methodology for aircraft loads estimation during the various phases of design for a transport category aircraft by utilizing potential of using commercial finite element analysis software, which may drive significant time saving. Early Design phase have limited data and quick changing configuration results in handling of large number of load cases. It is useful to idealize the aircraft as a connection of beams, which can be very accurately modelled using finite element analysis (beam elements). This research explores the correct approach towards idealizing an aircraft using beam elements. FEM Techniques like inertia relief were studied for implementation during course of work. The correct boundary condition technique envisaged for generation of shear force, bending moment and torque diagrams for the aircraft. The possible applications of this approach are the aircraft design process, which have been investigated.

Keywords: Multi-disciplinary optimization, aircraft load, finite element analysis, Stick Model.

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Authors: Md. Alamgir Hossain, Md. Zakir Hossain, Md. Atiqur Rahman

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Tidal power can play a vital role in integrating as new source of renewable energy to the off-grid power connection in isolated areas, namely Sandwip, in Bangladesh. It can reduce the present energy crisis and improve the social, environmental and economic perspective of Bangladesh. Tidal energy is becoming popular around the world due to its own facilities. The development of any country largely depends on energy sector improvement. Lack of energy sector is because of hampering progress of any country development, and the energy sector will be stable by only depend on sustainable energy sources. Renewable energy having environmental friendly is the only sustainable solution of secure energy system. Bangladesh has a huge potential of tidal power at different locations, but effective measures on this issue have not been considered sincerely. This paper summarizes the current energy scenario, and Bangladesh can produce power approximately 53.19 MW across the country to reduce the growing energy demand utilizing tidal energy as well as it is shown that Sandwip is highly potential place to produce tidal power, which is estimated approximately 16.49 MW by investing only US $10.37 million. Besides this, cost management for tidal power plant has been also discussed.

Keywords: Sustainable energy, tidal power, cost analysis, power demand, gas crisis.

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Authors: Adinarayanane Ramamurthy, Monsingh D. Devadas

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Cities denote instantaneously a challenge and an opportunity for climate change policy. Cities are the place where most energy services are needed because urbanization is closely linked to high population densities and concentration of economic activities and production (Urban energy demand). Consequently, it is critical to explain about the role of cities within the world-s energy systems and its correlation with the climate change issue. With more than half of the world-s population already living in urban areas, and that percentage expected to rise to 75 per cent by 2050, it is clear that the path to sustainable development must pass through cities. Cities expanding in size and population pose increased challenges to the environment, of which energy is part as a natural resource, and to the quality of life. Nowadays, most cities have already understood the importance of sustainability, both at their local scale as in terms of their contribution to sustainability at higher geographical scales. It requires the perception of a city as a complex and dynamic ecosystem, an open system, or cluster of systems, where the energy as well as the other natural resources is transformed to satisfy the needs of the different urban activities. In fact, buildings and transportation generally represent most of cities direct energy demand, i.e., between 60 per cent and 80 per cent of the overall consumption. Buildings, both residential and services are usually influenced by the local physical and social conditions. In terms of transport, the energy demand is also strongly linked with the specific characteristics of a city (urban mobility).The concept of a “smart city" builds on statistics as seven key axes of a city-s success in moving towards common platform (brain nerve)of sustainable urban energy systems. With the aforesaid knowledge, the authors have suggested a frame work to role of cities, as energy actors for smart city management. The authors have discusses the potential elements needed for energy in smart cities and also identified potential energy actions and relevant barriers. Furthermore, three levels of city smartness in cities actions to overcome market /institutional failures with a local approach are distinguished. The authors have made an attempt to conceive and implement concepts of city smartness by adopting the city or local government as nerve center through an integrated planning approach. Finally, concluding with recommendations for the organization of the Smart Sustainable Cities for positive changes of urban India.

Keywords: Urbanization, Urban Energy Demand, Sustainable Urban Energy Systems, Integrated Planning Approach, Smart Sustainable City.

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Authors: Akiko Kondo, Akio Kondo

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We are facing regional problems to low birth rate and longevity in Japan. Under this situation, there are some local municipalities which lose their vitality. The aims of this study are to clarify the present state of local public transportation services in local municipalities and relation between local public transportation services and population quantitatively. We conducted a questionnaire survey concerning regional agenda in all local municipalities in Japan. We obtained responses concerning the present state of convenience in use of public transportation and local public transportation services. Based on the data gathered from the survey, it is apparent that we should some sort of measures concerning public transportation services. Convenience in use of public transportation becomes an object of public concern in many rural regions. It is also clarified that some local municipalities introduce a demand bus for the purpose of promotion of administrative and financial efficiency. They also introduce a demand taxi in order to secure transportation to weak people in transportation and eliminate of blank area related to public transportation services. In addition, we construct a population model which includes explanatory variables of present states of local public transportation services. From this result, we can clarify the relation between public transportation services and population quantitatively.

Keywords: Public transportation, local municipality, regional analysis, regional issue.

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Authors: Azza Taha Zaki

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The death of tragedy is probably one of the most distinctive literary controversies of the twentieth century. There is common critical consent that tragedy in the classical sense of the word is no longer possible. Thinkers, philosophers and critics such as Nietzsche, Durrenmatt and George Steiner have all agreed that the decline of the genre in the modern age is due to the total lack of a unified world image and the absence of a shared vision in a fragmented and ideologically diversified world. The production of Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead in 1967 marked the rise of the genre of tragi-comedy as a more appropriate reflection of the spirit of the age. At the hands of such great dramatists as Tom Stoppard (1937- ), the revived genre was not used as an extra comic element to give some comic relief to an otherwise tragic text, but it was given a postmodernist touch to serve the interpretation of the dilemma of man in the postmodernist world. This paper will study features of postmodernist tragi-comedy in Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead as one of the most important plays in the modern British theatre and investigate Stoppard’s vision of man and life as influenced by postmodernist thought and philosophy.

Keywords: British, drama, postmodernist, Stoppard, tragi-comedy.

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Authors: S. Arrizabalaga, A. Salterain, M. Domínguez, I. Alvaro

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Traditionally, Internet has provided best-effort service to every user regardless of its requirements. However, as Internet becomes universally available, users demand more bandwidth and applications require more and more resources, and interest has developed in having the Internet provide some degree of Quality of Service. Although QoS is an important issue, the question of how it will be brought into the Internet has not been solved yet. Researches, due to the rapid advances in technology are proposing new and more desirable capabilities for the next generation of IP infrastructures. But neither all applications demand the same amount of resources, nor all users are service providers. In this way, this paper is the first of a series of papers that presents an architecture as a first step to the optimization of QoS in the Internet environment as a solution to a SMSE's problem whose objective is to provide public service to internet with certain Quality of Service expectations. The service provides new business opportunities, but also presents new challenges. We have designed and implemented a scalable service framework that supports adaptive bandwidth based on user demands, and the billing based on usage and on QoS. The developed application has been evaluated and the results show that traffic limiting works at optimum and so it does exceeding bandwidth distribution. However, some considerations are done and currently research is under way in two basic areas: (i) development and testing new transfer protocols, and (ii) developing new strategies for traffic improvements based on service differentiation.

Keywords: Differentiated Services, Linux, Quality of Service, queueing disciplines, web application.

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Authors: Saeed Sayyad Hagh Shomar

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Traffic congestion pricing – as a strategy in travel demand management in urban areas to reduce traffic congestion, air pollution and noise pollution – has drawn many attentions towards itself. Unlike the satisfying findings in this method, there are still problems in determining the best functional congestion pricing scheme with regard to the situation. The so-called problems in this process will result in further complications and even the scheme failure. That is why having proper knowledge of the significance of congestion pricing schemes and the effective factors in choosing them can lead to the success of this strategy. In this study, first, a variety of traffic congestion pricing schemes and their components are introduced; then, their functional usage is discussed. Next, by analyzing and comparing the barriers, limitations and advantages, the selection criteria of pricing schemes are described. The results, accordingly, show that the selection of the best scheme depends on various parameters. Finally, based on examining the effective parameters, it is concluded that the implementation of area-based schemes (cordon and zonal) has been more successful in non-diversion of traffic. That is considering the topology of the cities and the fact that traffic congestion is often created in the city centers, area-based schemes would be notably functional and appropriate.

Keywords: Congestion pricing, demand management, flat toll, variable toll.

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Authors: S. Hamid Mirmohammadi, Shahrazad Tamjidzad

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This paper is concerned with the single-item continuous review inventory system in which demand is stochastic and discrete. The budget consumed for purchasing the ordered items is not restricted but it incurs extra cost when exceeding specific value. The unit purchasing price depends on the quantity ordered under the all-units discounts cost structure. In many actual systems, the budget as a resource which is occupied by the purchased items is limited and the system is able to confront the resource shortage by charging more costs. Thus, considering the resource shortage costs as a part of system costs, especially when the amount of resource occupied by the purchased item is influenced by quantity discounts, is well motivated by practical concerns. In this paper, an optimization problem is formulated for finding the optimal (r, Q) policy, when the system is influenced by the budget limitation and a discount pricing simultaneously. Properties of the cost function are investigated and then an algorithm based on a one-dimensional search procedure is proposed for finding an optimal (r, Q) policy which minimizes the expected system costs.

Keywords: (r, Q) policy, Stochastic demand, backorders, limited resource, quantity discounts.

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Authors: Dae-Hee Son, Soon-Ryul Nam

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The power system frequency falls when disturbance such as rapid increase of system load or loss of a generating unit occurs in power systems. Especially, increase in the number of renewable generating units has a bad influence on the power system because of loss of generating unit depending on the circumstance. Conventional technologies use frequency droop control battery output for the frequency regulation and balance between supply and demand. If power is supplied using the fast output characteristic of the battery, power system stability can be further more improved. To improve the power system stability, we propose battery output control using ROCOF (Rate of Change of Frequency) in this paper. The bigger the power difference between the supply and the demand, the bigger the ROCOF drops. Battery output is controlled proportionally to the magnitude of the ROCOF, allowing for faster response to power imbalances. To simulate the control method of battery output system, we develop the user defined model using PSS/E and confirm that power system stability is improved by comparing with frequency droop control.

Keywords: PSS/E user defined model, power deviation, frequency droop control, ROCOF, rate of change of frequency.

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Authors: Héctor Rivera-Gómez, Eva Selene Hernández-Gress, Oscar Montaño-Arango, Jose Ramon Corona-Armenta

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This research studies the joint production, maintenance and subcontracting control policy for an unreliable deteriorating manufacturing system. Production activities are controlled by a derivation of the Hedging Point Policy, and given that the system is subject to deterioration, it reduces progressively its capacity to satisfy product demand. Multiple deterioration effects are considered, reflected mainly in the quality of the parts produced and the reliability of the machine. Subcontracting is available as support to satisfy product demand; also, overhaul maintenance can be conducted to reduce the effects of deterioration. The main objective of the research is to determine simultaneously the production, maintenance and subcontracting rate, which minimize the total, incurred cost. A stochastic dynamic programming model is developed and solved through a simulation-based approach composed of statistical analysis and optimization with the response surface methodology. The obtained results highlight the strong interactions between production, deterioration and quality, which justify the development of an integrated model. A numerical example and a sensitivity analysis are presented to validate our results.

Keywords: Deterioration, simulation, subcontracting, production planning.

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Authors: Debabrata Das, Pankaj Dutta

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Along with forward supply chain organization needs to consider the impact of reverse logistics due to its economic advantage, social awareness and strict legislations. In this paper, we develop a system dynamics framework for a closed-loop supply chain with fuzzy demand and fuzzy collection rate by incorporating product exchange policy in forward channel and various recovery options in reverse channel. The uncertainty issues associated with acquisition and collection of used product have been quantified using possibility measures. In the simulation study, we analyze order variation at both retailer and distributor level and compare bullwhip effects of different logistics participants over time between the traditional forward supply chain and the closed-loop supply chain. Our results suggest that the integration of reverse logistics can reduce order variation and bullwhip effect of a closed-loop system. Finally, sensitivity analysis is performed to examine the impact of various parameters on recovery process and bullwhip effect.

Keywords: Bullwhip Effect, Fuzzy Possibility Measures, Reverse Supply Chain, System Dynamics.

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Authors: M. Top, H. Telli

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Plaster material has been a preferred material especially in the Middle East geography in terms of economy, easy process and thermal insulation since very old times. However, due to the unstable nature of the material, very little has been reached today. For this reason, both finds and studies about stucco ornamentation are very few. In this study, the excavated plasterwork finds used in the architectural ornamentation in the Hosap Castle (Van/Turkey) were considered worth examining since they are rare examples. The stucco relief finds that were found in the castle is discussed. The finds of engraved artifacts on the plasterworks were not addressed. Only the pieces found in Area II and Area III (harem) and surrounding during the cleaning and excavation work carried out at Hosap Kalesi between 2007-2015, will be discussed. This is a general assessment about the finds. It is unknown where many of the pieces found. For this reason, only general appraisal was able to done. Most of the parts are made of mold technique. The motifs on the fragments are similar to the motifs of Ottoman period tiles. Parallel to the settlement history of the castle, thought that these plaster pieces belong to the 16th-17th centuries.

Keywords: Stucco decoration, Eastern Anatolia, Ottoman motifs, ornamentation, plasterwork.

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Authors: Hamid R. S. Mojaveri, Seyed S. Mousavi, Mojtaba Heydar, Ahmad Aminian

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The aim of this paper is to present a methodology in three steps to forecast supply chain demand. In first step, various data mining techniques are applied in order to prepare data for entering into forecasting models. In second step, the modeling step, an artificial neural network and support vector machine is presented after defining Mean Absolute Percentage Error index for measuring error. The structure of artificial neural network is selected based on previous researchers' results and in this article the accuracy of network is increased by using sensitivity analysis. The best forecast for classical forecasting methods (Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Exponential Smoothing with Trend) is resulted based on prepared data and this forecast is compared with result of support vector machine and proposed artificial neural network. The results show that artificial neural network can forecast more precisely in comparison with other methods. Finally, forecasting methods' stability is analyzed by using raw data and even the effectiveness of clustering analysis is measured.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), bullwhip effect, demand forecasting, Support Vector Machine (SVM).

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Authors: Md. Mosabbir Pasha, Ijaj Mahmud Chowdhury, M. A. Afrahim Bhuiyan

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With the increasing population and intensive land use, huge traffic demand is generating worldwide both in developing and developed countries. As a developing country, Bangladesh is also facing the same problem in recent years by producing huge numbers of daily trips. As a matter of fact, extensive traffic demand is increasing day by day. Also, transport system in Dhaka is heterogeneous, reflecting the heterogeneity in the socio-economic and land use patterns. Trips produced here are for different purposes such as work, business, educational etc. Due to the significant concentration of educational institutions a large share of the trips are generated by educational purpose. And one of the major percentages of educational trips is produced by university going students and most of them are travelled by car, bus, train, taxi, rickshaw etc. The aim of the study was to find out the university students’ perception on public transit ridership. A survey was conducted among 330 students from eight different universities. It was found out that 26% of the trips produced by university going students are travelled by public bus service and only 5% are by train. Percentage of car share is 16% and 12% of the trips are travelled by private taxi. It has been observed from the study, students those who prefer bus instead of other options, 42 percent of their family resides outside Dhaka. And those who prefer walking, of them, over 40 percent students’ family reside outside of Dhaka and of them over 85 percent students have a tendency to live in a mess. On the contrary, students travelling by car represents, most of their family reside in Dhaka. The study also revealed that the most important reason that restricts students not to use public transit is poor service. Negative attitudes such as discomfort, uneasiness in using public transit also reduces the usage of public transit. The poor waiting area is another major cause of not using public transit. Insufficient security also plays a significant role in not using public transit. On the contrary, the fare is not a problem for students those who use public transit as a mode of transportation. Students also think stations are not far away from their home or institution and they do not need to wait long for the buses or trains. It was also found accessibility to public transit is moderate.

Keywords: Traffic demand, fare, poor service, public transit ridership.

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Authors: Armando Cartenì, Ilaria Henke

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Recently, the Italian government has approved a new law for public contracts and has been laying the groundwork for restarting a planning phase. The government has adopted the indications given by the European Commission regarding the estimation of the external costs within the Cost-Benefit Analysis, and has been approved the ‘Guidelines for assessment of Investment Projects’. In compliance with the new Italian law, the aim of this research was to perform a feasibility study applying quantitative methods regarding the revamping of an Italian tourist railway line. A Cost-Benefit Analysis was performed starting from the quantification of the passengers’ demand potentially interested in using the revamped rail services. The benefits due to the external costs reduction were also estimated (quantified) in terms of variations (with respect to the not project scenario): climate change, air pollution, noises, congestion, and accidents. Estimations results have been proposed in terms of the Measure of Effectiveness underlying a positive Net Present Value equal to about 27 million of Euros, an Internal Rate of Return much greater the discount rate, a benefit/cost ratio equal to 2 and a PayBack Period of 15 years.

Keywords: Cost-benefit analysis, evaluation analysis, demand management, external cost, transport planning, quality.

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Authors: Habibollah Najafi, Amir Abbas Yazdani, Hosseinali Nahavandi

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The review performed on the condition of energy consumption & rate in Iran, shows that unfortunately the subject of optimization and conservation of energy in active industries of country lacks a practical & effective method and in most factories, the energy consumption and rate is more than in similar industries of industrial countries. The increasing demand of electrical energy and the overheads which it imposes on the organization, forces companies to search for suitable approaches to optimize energy consumption and demand management. Application of value engineering techniques is among these approaches. Value engineering is considered a powerful tool for improving profitability. These tools are used for reduction of expenses, increasing profits, quality improvement, increasing market share, performing works in shorter durations, more efficient utilization of sources & etc. In this article, we shall review the subject of value engineering and its capabilities for creating effective transformations in industrial organizations, in order to reduce energy costs & the results have been investigated and described during a case study in Mazandaran wood and paper industries, the biggest consumer of energy in north of Iran, for the purpose of presenting the effects of performed tasks in optimization of energy consumption by utilizing value engineering techniques in one case study.

Keywords: Value Engineering (VE), Expense, Energy, Industrial

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Authors: S. M. Ali, A. Salam Khan, A. U. Khan, M. Tariq, M. S. Hussain, B. A. Abbasi, I. Hussain, U. Farid

Abstract:

Environment and surrounding plays a pivotal rule in structuring life-style of the consumers. Living standards intern effect the energy consumption of the consumers. In smart grid paradigm, climate drifts, weather parameter and green environmental directly relates to the energy profiles of the various consumers, such as residential, commercial and industrial. Considering above factors helps policy in shaping utility load curves and optimal management of demand and supply. Thus, there is a pressing need to develop correlation models of load and weather parameters and critical analysis of the factors effecting energy profiles of smart grid consumers. In this paper, we elaborated various environment and weather parameter factors effecting demand of consumers. Moreover, we developed correlation models, such as Pearson, Spearman, and Kendall, an inter-relation between dependent (load) parameter and independent (weather) parameters. Furthermore, we validated our discussion with real-time data of Texas State. The numerical simulations proved the effective relation of climatic drifts with energy consumption of smart grid consumers.

Keywords: Climatic drifts, correlation analysis, energy consumption, smart grid, weather parameter.

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Authors: Siti Norfazlina Yusoff, Noorlailahusna Mohd Yusof

Abstract:

The aging of the workforce is occurring globally and has significant impact on organizations. The Malaysian population is ageing. Although, not as quickly as the populations of a number of Asian nations, or of parts of Europe; the rate is sufficient to cause a concern. The life expectancy of Malaysians has increased in year 2012 with an average of 73.8 years or equal to 71.1 years for males and 76.7 years for females. The birth and death rates are 26.05 births/1,000 population and 5.29 deaths/1,000 population respectively. These figures have placed a greater liability on the government’s shoulder, and have become a push factor for the country to revise a new retirement age for the public servants. The ‘aged population’ impinged on the new challenges faced by the Malaysian government, which had to deal with an unproductive aged workforce. A new retirement age from 58 to 60 years old has been introduced and this could have a positive effect on this cohort, in maintaining financial security. However, keeping older employees might affect organizations’ performance and productivity. The organizations need to pay more attention on them, since they are less effective and might be affected by numerous health problems. An innovative culture should be introduced and this could be a good indicator for organizations that deal with these ‘expensive’ workers.

Keywords: Aged workforce, financial relief, innovative culture retirement policy.

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Authors: M. Boukhrouk, R. Ed-Dali

Abstract:

Outbound tourism in Morocco, as in the majority of developing countries, reveals some of the aspects of inequality between the north and the south. Considered by some researchers as one of the facets of the development crisis, access to tourism and especially international tourism is a chance for a small minority with financial means, while the vast portions of the population dream rather of immigrating to a developed country for the sake of improving their standard of living. The right to travel is also limited by visa requirements, procedures in host countries, security and technical measures and creates discrimination in the practice of tourism. These conditions do not seem to be favorable to the democratization of the practice of international tourism for the populations of the southern countries. This paper is a contribution to the reading of the trends of outbound tourism in developing countries through the example of Morocco. It highlights the different aspects of Moroccan outbound tourism, destinations and the behavior of tourists through an analysis of the offer of a sample of 50 travel agencies. In the same vein, it offers a reading grid of the possibilities offered for the development of outbound tourism and the various existing obstacles to the democratization of international outbound tourism in the southern countries. This reading reveals the transformation in the behavior of Moroccan international tourists as well as the profound changes in Moroccan society, through a model of statistical analysis.

Keywords: Demand, Hajj, Morocco, outbound tourism, tendency, Umrah.

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Authors: Vijay Kumar, Jagdev Singh, Yaduvir Singh, Sanjay Sood

Abstract:

In a practical power system, the power plants are not located at the same distance from the center of loads and their fuel costs are different. Also, under normal operating conditions, the generation capacity is more than the total load demand and losses. Thus, there are many options for scheduling generation. In an interconnected power system, the objective is to find the real and reactive power scheduling of each power plant in such a way as to minimize the operating cost. This means that the generator’s real and reactive powers are allowed to vary within certain limits so as to meet a particular load demand with minimum fuel cost. This is called optimal power flow problem. In this paper, Economic Load Dispatch (ELD) of real power generation is considered. Economic Load Dispatch (ELD) is the scheduling of generators to minimize total operating cost of generator units subjected to equality constraint of power balance within the minimum and maximum operating limits of the generating units. In this paper, genetic algorithms are considered. ELD solutions are found by solving the conventional load flow equations while at the same time minimizing the fuel costs.

Keywords: ELD, Equality constraints, Genetic algorithms, Strings.

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Authors: Pedro Gómez-del-Hoyo, Jose-Luis Bárcena-Humanes, Nerea del-Rey-Maestre, María-Pilar Jarabo-Amores, David Mata-Moya

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A study of achievable coverages using passive radar systems in terrestrial traffic monitoring applications is presented. The study includes the estimation of the bistatic radar cross section of different commercial vehicle models that provide challenging low values which make detection really difficult. A semi-urban scenario is selected to evaluate the impact of excess propagation losses generated by an irregular relief. A bistatic passive radar exploiting UHF frequencies radiated by digital video broadcasting transmitters is assumed. A general method of coverage estimation using electromagnetic simulators in combination with estimated car average bistatic radar cross section is applied. In order to reduce the computational cost, hybrid solution is implemented, assuming free space for the target-receiver path but estimating the excess propagation losses for the transmitter-target one.

Keywords: Bistatic radar cross section, passive radar, propagation losses, radar coverage.

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