Search results for: probabilistic risk assessment

Authors: Achim Washington, Reece Clothier, Jose Silva

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System Safety Regulations (SSR) are a central component to the airworthiness certification of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS). There is significant debate on the setting of appropriate SSR for UAS. Putting this debate aside, the challenge lies in how to apply the system safety process to UAS, which lacks the data and operational heritage of conventionally piloted aircraft. The limited knowledge and lack of operational data result in uncertainty in the system safety assessment of UAS. This uncertainty can lead to incorrect compliance findings and the potential certification and operation of UAS that do not meet minimum safety performance requirements. The existing system safety assessment and compliance processes, as used for conventional piloted aviation, do not adequately account for the uncertainty, limiting the suitability of its application to UAS. This paper discusses the challenges of undertaking system safety assessments for UAS and presents current and envisaged research towards addressing these challenges. It aims to highlight the main advantages associated with adopting a risk based framework to the System Safety Performance Requirement (SSPR) compliance process that is capable of taking the uncertainty associated with each of the outputs of the system safety assessment process into consideration. Based on this study, it is made clear that developing a framework tailored to UAS, would allow for a more rational, transparent and systematic approach to decision making. This would reduce the need for conservative assumptions and take the risk posed by each UAS into consideration while determining its state of compliance to the SSR.

Keywords: Part 1309 regulations, unmanned aircraft systems, system safety, uncertainty.

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Authors: M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad, A. Salehi Dobakhshari

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This paper presents a reliability-based approach to select appropriate wind turbine types for a wind farm considering site-specific wind speed patterns. An actual wind farm in the northern region of Iran with the wind speed registration of one year is studied in this paper. An analytic approach based on total probability theorem is utilized in this paper to model the probabilistic behavior of both turbines- availability and wind speed. Well-known probabilistic reliability indices such as loss of load expectation (LOLE), expected energy not supplied (EENS) and incremental peak load carrying capability (IPLCC) for wind power integration in the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) are examined. The most appropriate turbine type achieving the highest reliability level is chosen for the studied wind farm.

Keywords: Wind Turbine Generator, Wind Farm, Power System Reliability, Wind Turbine Type Selection

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Authors: Z.F. Fadzil, H.S. Hashim, A.I. Che-Ani, S. Aziz

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Campus sustainability is the goal of a university striving for sustainable development. This study found that of 17 popular approaches, two comprehensive campus sustainability assessment frameworks were developed in the context of Sustainability in Higher Education (SHE), and used by many university campuses around the world. Sustainability Tracking Assessment and Rating Systems (STARS) and the Campus Sustainability Assessment Framework (CSAF) approaches are more comprehensive than others. Therefore, the researchers examined aspects and elements used by CSAF and STARS in the approach to develop a campus sustainability assessment framework for Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM). Documents analysis found that CSAF and STARS do not focus on physical development, especially the construction industry, as key elements of campus sustainability assessment. This finding is in accordance with the Sustainable UKM Programme which consists of three main components of sustainable community, ecosystem and physical development.

Keywords: Campus sustainability, campus sustainability assessment, sustainability assessment framework, sustainable campus

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Authors: Janusz K. Grabara, Bartłomiej Okwiet, Sebastian Kot

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The purpose of the article is presentation and analysis of the aspect of job security in small and medium-size enterprises in Poland with reference to other EU countries. We show the theoretical aspects of the risk with reference to managing small and medium enterprises, next risk management in small and medium enterprises in Poland, which were subjected to a detailed analysis. We show in detail the risk associated with the operation of the mentioned above companies, as well as analyses its levels on various stages and for different kinds of conducted activity.

Keywords: Job safety, small and medium-size companies, SME, work risk, risk management.

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Authors: Esad Kadušić, Petar Bojović, Amela Žgalj

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Mobile banking services present a unique growth opportunity for mobile operators in emerging markets, and have already made good progress in bringing financial services to the previously unbanked populations of many developing countries. The potential is amazing, but what about the risks? In the complex process of establishing a mobile banking business model, many kinds of risks and factors need to be monitored and well-managed. Risk identification is the first stage of risk management. Correct risk identification ensures risk management effectiveness. Keeping the risks low makes it possible to use the full potential of mobile banking and carry out the planned business strategy. The focus should be on adoption of consumers which is the main risk factor of mobile banking services.

Keywords: Consumer Adoption, Mobile Banking, Risk

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Authors: E. Cenderelli, E. Bruno, G. Iacoviello, A. Lazzini

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The financial sector is exposed to the risk of cyber-attacks like any other industrial sector. Furthermore, the topic of CybeRisk (cyber risk) has become particularly relevant given that Information Technology (IT) attacks have increased drastically in recent years, and cannot be stopped by single organizations requiring a response at international and national level. IT risk is never a matter purely for the IT manager, although he clearly plays a key role. A bank's risk management function requires a thorough understanding of the evolving risks as well as the tools and practical techniques available to address them. Upon the request of European and national legislation regarding CybeRisk in the financial system, banks are therefore called upon to strengthen the operational model for CybeRisk management. This will require an important change with a more intense collaboration with the structures that deal with information security for the development of an ad hoc system for the evaluation and control of this type of risk. The aim of the work is to propose a framework for the management and control of CybeRisk that will bridge the gap in the literature regarding the understanding and consideration of CybeRisk as an integral part of business management. The IT function has a strong relevance in the management of CybeRisk, which is perceived mainly as operational risk, but with a positive tendency on the part of risk management to the identification of CybeRisk assessment methods that are increasingly complete, quantitative and able to better describe the possible impacts on the business. The paper provides answers to the research questions: Is it possible to define a CybeRisk governance structure able to support the comparison between risk and security? How can the relationships between IT assets be integrated into a cyberisk assessment framework to guarantee a system of protection and risks control? From a methodological point of view, this research uses a case study approach. The choice of “Monte dei Paschi di Siena” was determined by the specific features of one of Italy’s biggest lenders. It is chosen to use an intensive research strategy: an in-depth study of reality. The case study methodology is an empirical approach to explore a complex and current phenomenon that develops over time. The use of cases has also the advantage of allowing the deepening of aspects concerning the "how" and "why" of contemporary events, on which the scholar has little control. The research bases on quantitative data and qualitative information obtained through semi-structured interviews of an open-ended nature and questionnaires to directors, members of the audit committee, risk, IT and compliance managers, and those responsible for internal audit function and anti-money laundering. The added value of the paper can be seen in the development of a framework based on a mapping of IT assets from which it is possible to identify their relationships for purposes of a more effective management and control of cyber risk.

Keywords: Bank, CybeRisk, information technology, risk management.

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Authors: Ismail Karaca, Ridvan Saracoglu, Omer Soner

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Fuzzy Logic, an advanced method to support decision-making, is used by various scientists in many disciplines. Fuzzy programming is a product of fuzzy logic, fuzzy rules, and implication. In marine science, fuzzy programming for ships is dramatically increasing together with autonomous ship studies. In this paper, a program to support the decision-making process for ship navigation has been designed. The program is produced in fuzzy logic and rules, by taking the marine accidents and expert opinions into account. After the program was designed, the program was tested by 46 ship accidents reported by the Transportation Safety Investigation Center of Turkey. Wind speed, sea condition, visibility, day/night ratio have been used as input data. They have been converted into a risk factor within the Fuzzy Logic Designer application and fuzzy rules set by marine experts. Finally, the expert's meteorological risk factor for each accident is compared with the program's risk factor, and the error rate was calculated. The main objective of this study is to improve the navigational safety of ships, by using the advance decision support model. According to the study result, fuzzy programming is a robust model that supports safe navigation.

Keywords: Calculation of risk factor, fuzzy logic, fuzzy programming for ship, safe navigation of ships.

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Authors: Seongmin Yim

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The Korean government has applied preliminary feasibility study for new and huge R&D programs since 2008.The study is carried out from the viewpoints of technology, policy, and Economics. Then integrate the separate analysis and finally arrive at a definite result; whether a program is feasible or unfeasible, This paper describes the concept and method of the feasibility analysis focused on technological viability assessment for technical analysis. It consists of technology trend assessment and technology level assessment. Through the analysis, we can determine the chance of schedule delay or cost overrun occurring in the proposed plan.

Keywords: Preliminary Feasibility Study, Technological viability, Technology Trend Assessment, Technology Level Assessment

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Authors: Yayun Hsu, Henry Horng-Shing Lu

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This paper proposes a data-driven, biology-inspired neural segmentation method of 3D drosophila Brainbow images. We use Bayesian Sequential Partitioning algorithm for probabilistic modeling, which can be used to detect somas and to eliminate crosstalk effects. This work attempts to develop an automatic methodology for neuron image segmentation, which nowadays still lacks a complete solution due to the complexity of the image. The proposed method does not need any predetermined, risk-prone thresholds, since biological information is inherently included inside the image processing procedure. Therefore, it is less sensitive to variations in neuron morphology; meanwhile, its flexibility would be beneficial for tracing the intertwining structure of neurons.

Keywords: Brainbow, 3D imaging, image segmentation, neuron morphology, biological data mining, non-parametric learning.

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Authors: Revanth Sai Kosaraju, Michael Ramscar, Melody Dye

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Accounts of language acquisition differ significantly in their treatment of the role of prediction in language learning. In particular, nativist accounts posit that probabilistic learning about words and word sequences has little to do with how children come to use language. The accuracy of this claim was examined by testing whether distributional probabilities and frequency contributed to how well 3-4 year olds repeat simple word chunks. Corresponding chunks were the same length, expressed similar content, and were all grammatically acceptable, yet the results of the study showed marked differences in performance when overall distributional frequency varied. It was found that a distributional model of language predicted the empirical findings better than a number of other models, replicating earlier findings and showing that children attend to distributional probabilities in an adult corpus. This suggested that language is more prediction-and-error based, rather than on abstract rules which nativist camps suggest.

Keywords: Abstractness, child psychology, language acquisition, prediction and error.

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Authors: M. Lesage, G. Raîche, M. Riopel, F. Fortin, D. Sebkhi

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This paper describes a Web server implementation of the hierarchical aggregate assessment process in the field of education. This process describes itself as a field of teamwork assessment where teams can have multiple levels of hierarchy and supervision. This process is applied everywhere and is part of the management, education, assessment and computer science fields. The E-Assessment website named “Cluster” records in its database the students, the course material, the teams and the hierarchical relationships between the students. For the present research, the hierarchical relationships are team member, team leader and group administrator appointments. The group administrators have the responsibility to supervise team leaders. The experimentation of the application has been performed by high school students in geology courses and Canadian army cadets for navigation patrols in teams. This research extends the work of Nance that uses a hierarchical aggregation process similar as the one implemented in the “Cluster” application. 

Keywords: E-Learning, E-Assessment, Teamwork Assessment, Hierarchical Aggregate Assessment.

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Authors: K.Mala, V.Sadasivam, S.Alagappan

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Advances in clinical medical imaging have brought about the routine production of vast numbers of medical images that need to be analyzed. As a result an enormous amount of computer vision research effort has been targeted at achieving automated medical image analysis. Computed Tomography (CT) is highly accurate for diagnosing liver tumors. This study aimed to evaluate the potential role of the wavelet and the neural network in the differential diagnosis of liver tumors in CT images. The tumors considered in this study are hepatocellular carcinoma, cholangio carcinoma, hemangeoma and hepatoadenoma. Each suspicious tumor region was automatically extracted from the CT abdominal images and the textural information obtained was used to train the Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) to classify the tumors. Results obtained were evaluated with the help of radiologists. The system differentiates the tumor with relatively high accuracy and is therefore clinically useful.

Keywords: Fuzzy c means clustering, texture analysis, probabilistic neural network, LVQ neural network.

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Authors: A.C. Duarte, C.I.L. Justino, K. Duarte, A.C. Freitas, R. Pereira, P. Chaves, P. Bettencourt, S. Cardoso, T.A.P. Rocha-Santos

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This paper aims at overviewing the topics of a research project (CARDIOSENSOR) on the field of health sciences (biomaterials and biomedical engineering). The project has focused on the development of a nanosensor for the assessment of the risk of cardiovascular diseases by the monitoring of C-reactive protein (CRP), which has been currently considered as the best validated inflammatory biomarker associated to cardiovascular diseases. The project involves tasks such as: 1) the development of sensor devices based on field effect transistors (FET): assembly, optimization and validation; 2) application of sensors to the detection of CRP in standard solutions and comparison with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA); and 3) application of sensors to real samples such as blood and saliva and evaluation of their ability to predict the risk of cardiovascular disease.

Keywords: Carbon nanotubes field effect transistors, cardiovascular diseases, C-reactive protein, sensor.

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Authors: F. Lazzali, M. Farsi

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Several models of vulnerability assessment have been proposed. The selection of one of these models depends on the objectives of the study. The classical methodologies for seismic vulnerability analysis, as a part of seismic risk analysis, have been formulated with statistical criteria based on a rapid observation. The information relating to the buildings performance is statistically elaborated. In this paper, we use the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98 to define the relationship between damage and macroseismic intensity to assess the seismic vulnerability. Applying to Algiers area, the first step is to identify building typologies and to assign vulnerability classes. In the second step, damages are investigated according to EMS-98.

Keywords: Damage, EMS-98, inventory building, vulnerability classes

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Authors: Ando Leppiman, Kati Kõrbe Kaare, Ott Koppel

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Growing demand for gas has rekindled a debate on gas security of supply due to supply interruptions, increasing gas prices, cross-border bottlenecks and a growing reliance on imports over longer distances. Security of supply is defined mostly as an infrastructure package to satisfy N-1 criteria. In case of Estonia, Finland, Latvia and Lithuania all the gas infrastructure is built to supply natural gas only from one single supplier, Russia. In 2012 almost 100% of natural gas to the Eastern Baltic Region was supplied by Gazprom. Under such circumstances infrastructure N-1 criteria does not guarantee security of supply. In the Eastern Baltic Region, the assessment of risk of gas supply disruption has been worked out by applying the method of risk scenarios. There are various risks to be tackled in Eastern Baltic States in terms of improving security of supply, such as single supplier risk, physical infrastructure risk, regulatory gap, fair price and competition. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the energy security of the Eastern Baltic Region within the framework of the European Union’s policies and to make recommendations on how to better guarantee the energy security of the region.

Keywords: Security of supply, supply routes for natural gas, energy balance, diversified supply options, common regulative package.

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Authors: R. Dyondi, S. K. Jha

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The purpose of the paper is to address the strategic risk issues surrounding Hindi film distribution in Mumbai for a film distributor, who acts as an entrepreneur when launching a product (movie) in the market (film territory).The paper undertakes a fundamental review of films and risk in the Hindi film industry and applies Grounded Theory technique to understand the complex phenomena of risk taking behavior of the film distributors (both independent and studios) in Mumbai. Rich in-depth interviews with distributors are coded to develop core categories through constant comparison leading to conceptualization of the phenomena of interest. This paper is a first-of-its-kind-attempt to understand risk behavior of a distributor, which is akin to entrepreneurial risk behavior under conditions of uncertainty.

Keywords: Entrepreneurial Risk Behavior, Film Distribution Strategy, Hindi Film Industry, Risk.

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Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

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Risk management in banking sector is a key issue linked to financial system stability and its importance has been elevated by technological developments and emergence of new financial instruments. In this paper, we improve the model previously defined for quantifying internal control impact on banking risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA. For this, we defined three equations and a maturity coefficient to obtain a mathematical model which is tested on all banking processes and type of risks. The new model allows an optimal assessment of residual criticality and improves the correlation rate that has become 98%.

Keywords: Risk, Control, Banking, FMECA.

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Authors: Moustafa Osman Mohammed

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This paper will explore formation of HCl aerosol at atmospheric boundary layers and encourages the uptake of environmental modeling systems (EMSs) as a practice evaluation of gaseous emissions (“framework measures”) from small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The conceptual model predicts greenhouse gas emissions to ecological points beyond landfill site operations. It focuses on incorporation traditional knowledge into baseline information for both measurement data and the mathematical results, regarding parameters influence model variable inputs. The paper has simplified parameters of aerosol processes based on the more complex aerosol process computations. The simple model can be implemented to both Gaussian and Eulerian rural dispersion models. Aerosol processes considered in this study were (i) the coagulation of particles, (ii) the condensation and evaporation of organic vapors, and (iii) dry deposition. The chemical transformation of gas-phase compounds is taken into account photochemical formulation with exposure effects according to HCl concentrations as starting point of risk assessment. The discussion set out distinctly aspect of sustainability in reflection inputs, outputs, and modes of impact on the environment. Thereby, models incorporate abiotic and biotic species to broaden the scope of integration for both quantification impact and assessment risks. The later environmental obligations suggest either a recommendation or a decision of what is a legislative should be achieved for mitigation measures of landfill gas (LFG) ultimately.

Keywords: Air dispersion model, landfill management, spatial analysis, environmental impact and risk assessment.

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Authors: Siti Nor Zawani Ahmmad, Eileen Su Lee Ming, Yeong Che Fai, Fauzan Khairi bin Che Harun

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The increasingly sophisticated technologies have now been able to provide assistance for surgeons to improve surgical performance through various training programs. Equally important to learning skills is the assessment method as it determines the learning and technical proficiency of a trainee. A consistent and rigorous assessment system will ensure that trainees acquire the specific level of competency prior to certification. This paper reviews the methods currently in use for assessment of surgical skill and some modern techniques using computer-based measurements and virtual reality systems for more quantitative measurements

Keywords: assessment, surgical skill, checklist, global rating, virtual reality

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Authors: Yen-Chieh Wen, Ching-Hui Lin

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The main purpose of this study is to analyze climbers involved in motivation and risk perception and analysis of the predictive ability of the risk perception "mountaineering" involved in motivation. This study used questionnaires, to have to climb the 3000m high mountain in Taiwan climbers object to carry out an investigation in order to non-random sampling, a total of 231 valid questionnaires were. After statistical analysis, the study found that: 1. Climbers the highest climbers involved in motivation "to enjoy the natural beauty of the fun. 2 climbers for climbers "risk perception" the highest: the natural environment of risk. 3. Climbers “seeking adventure stimulate", “competence achievement" motivation highly predictive of risk perception. Based on these findings, this study not only practices the recommendations of the outdoor leisure industry, and also related research proposals for future researchers.

Keywords: Mountaineering, motivation, risk perception, decision-making.

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Authors: Fauziah Hanim Tafri, Zarinah Hamid, Ahamed Kameel Mydin Meera, Mohd Azmi Omar

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This paper examines the relationship between financial risks and profitability of the conventional and Islamic banks in Malaysia for the period between 1996 and 2005. The measures of profitability that have been used in the study are the return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) while the financial risks are credit risk, interest rate risk and liquidity risks. This study employs panel data regression analysis of Generalised Least Squares of fixed effects and random effects models. It was found that credit risk has a significant impact on ROA and ROE for the conventional as well as the Islamic banks. The relationship between interest rate risk and ROE were found to be weakly significant for the conventional banks and insignificant for the Islamic banks. The effect of interest rate risk on ROA is significant for the conventional banks. Liquidity risk was found to have an insignificant impact on both profitability measures.

Keywords: Credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk, market risk, profitability.

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Authors: Yoko Suganuma Oi

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The purpose of the present study is to find the efficacy of high school student self-assessment of written production. It aimed to explore the following two research questions: 1) How is topic development of their written production improved after student self-assessment and teacher feedback? 2) Does the consistency between student self-assessment and teacher assessment develop after student self-assessment and teacher feedback? The data came from the written production of 82 Japanese high school students aged from 16 to 18 years old, an American English teacher and one Japanese English teacher. Students were asked to write English compositions, about 150 words, for thirty minutes without using dictionaries. It was conducted twice at intervals of two months. Students were supposed to assess their own compositions by themselves. Teachers also assessed students’ compositions using the same assessment sheet. The results showed that both teachers and students assessed the second compositions higher than the first compositions. However, there was not the development of the consistency in coherence.

Keywords: Feedback, self-assessment, topic development.

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Authors: Tomasz L. Nawrocki, Danuta Szwajca

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The growing importance of reputation in building enterprise value and achieving long-term competitive advantage creates the need for its measurement and evaluation for the management purposes (effective reputation and its risk management). The paper presents practical application of self-developed corporate reputation assessment model from the viewpoint of stock market investors. The model has a pioneer character and example analysis performed for selected industry is a form of specific test for this tool. In the proposed solution, three aspects - informational, financial and development, as well as social ones - were considered. It was also assumed that the individual sub-criteria will be based on public sources of information, and as the calculation apparatus, capable of obtaining synthetic final assessment, fuzzy logic will be used. The main reason for developing this model was to fulfill the gap in the scope of synthetic measure of corporate reputation that would provide higher degree of objectivity by relying on "hard" (not from surveys) and publicly available data. It should be also noted that results obtained on the basis of proposed corporate reputation assessment method give possibilities of various internal as well as inter-branch comparisons and analysis of corporate reputation impact.

Keywords: Corporate reputation, fuzzy logic, fuzzy model, stock market investors.

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Authors: Korbi Fakhri

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In this article, we have elaborated a study over the nature of financial intermediation in Islamic banks by comparison to those of conventional ones. We have found a striking difference between two kinds of intermediation. We tried, from another side, to study the relationship between the capital level and deficiency risk relying on econometric model, and we have obtained a positive and significant relation between the capital and the deficiency risk for the conventional banks. This means that when the capital of these banks increases, the deficiency risk increases as well. In return, since the Islamic banks are constrained to respect the Sharia Committee as well as customers’ demands that may, in certain contracts, choose to invest their capitals in projects they are interested in. These constraints have as effects to reduce the deficiency risk even when the capital increases.

Keywords: Conventional bank, deficiency risk, financial intermediation, Islamic bank.

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Authors: Hiren Mewada, Suprava Patnaik

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Object identification and segmentation application requires extraction of object in foreground from the background. In this paper the Bhattacharya distance based probabilistic approach is utilized with an active contour model (ACM) to segment an object from the background. In the proposed approach, the Bhattacharya histogram is calculated on non-linear structure tensor space. Based on the histogram, new formulation of active contour model is proposed to segment images. The results are tested on both color and gray images from the Berkeley image database. The experimental results show that the proposed model is applicable to both color and gray images as well as both texture images and natural images. Again in comparing to the Bhattacharya based ACM in ICA space, the proposed model is able to segment multiple object too.

Keywords: Active Contour, Bhattacharya Histogram, Structure tensor, Image segmentation.

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Authors: Min Goo Choi, Jung Hoon Jung, Jae Wook Jeon

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Assessment for image quality traditionally needs its original image as a reference. The conventional method for assessment like Mean Square Error (MSE) or Peak Signal to Noise Ratio (PSNR) is invalid when there is no reference. In this paper, we present a new No-Reference (NR) assessment of image quality using blur and noise. The recent camera applications provide high quality images by help of digital Image Signal Processor (ISP). Since the images taken by the high performance of digital camera have few blocking and ringing artifacts, we only focus on the blur and noise for predicting the objective image quality. The experimental results show that the proposed assessment method gives high correlation with subjective Difference Mean Opinion Score (DMOS). Furthermore, the proposed method provides very low computational load in spatial domain and similar extraction of characteristics to human perceptional assessment.

Keywords: No Reference, Image Quality Assessment, blur, noise.

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Authors: Nadia H. Mohammed, Anmar Al-Taie, Fadia H. Al-Sultany

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Although breast cancer prevalence continues to increase, mortality has been decreasing as a result of early detection and improvement in adjuvant systemic therapy. Nevertheless, this disease required further efforts to understand and identify the associated potential risk factors that could play a role in the prevalence of this malignancy among Iraqi women. The objective of this study was to assess the perception of certain predictive risk factors on the prevalence of breast cancer types among a sample of Iraqi women diagnosed with breast cancer. This was a retrospective observational study carried out at National Cancer Research Center in College of Medicine, Baghdad University from November 2017 to January 2018. Data of 100 patients with breast cancer whose biopsies examined in the National Cancer Research Center were included in this study. Data were collected to structure a detailed assessment regarding the patients’ demographic, medical and cancer records. The majority of study participants (94%) suffered from ductal breast cancer with mean age 49.57 years. Among those women, 48.9% were obese with body mass index (BMI) 35 kg/m². 68.1% of them had positive family history of breast cancer and 66% had low parity. 40.4% had stage II ductal breast cancer followed by 25.5% with stage III. It was found that 59.6% and 68.1% had positive oestrogen receptor sensitivity and positive human epidermal growth factor (HER2/neu) receptor sensitivity respectively. In regard to the impact of prediction of certain variables on the incidence of ductal breast cancer, positive family history of breast cancer (P < 0.0001), low parity (P< 0.0001), stage I and II breast cancer (P = 0.02) and positive HER2/neu status (P < 0.0001) were significant predictive factors among the study participants. The results from this study provide relevant evidence for a significant positive and potential association between certain risk factors and the prevalence of breast cancer among Iraqi women.

Keywords: Ductal breast cancer, hormone sensitivity, Iraq, risk factors.

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Authors: Olaf Hallan Graven, Lachlan MacKinnon

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One major issue that is regularly cited as a block to the widespread use of online assessments in eLearning, is that of the authentication of the student and the level of confidence that an assessor can have that the assessment was actually completed by that student. Currently, this issue is either ignored, in which case confidence in the assessment and any ensuing qualification is damaged, or else assessments are conducted at central, controlled locations at specified times, losing the benefits of the distributed nature of the learning programme. Particularly as we move towards constructivist models of learning, with intentions towards achieving heutagogic learning environments, the benefits of a properly managed online assessment system are clear. Here we discuss some of the approaches that could be adopted to address these issues, looking at the use of existing security and biometric techniques, combined with some novel behavioural elements. These approaches offer the opportunity to validate the student on accessing an assessment, on submission, and also during the actual production of the assessment. These techniques are currently under development in the DECADE project, and future work will evaluate and report their use..

Keywords: E-learning, remote identification, assessment.

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Authors: Adrián D. García-Soto, Alejandro Hernández-Martínez, Jesús G. Valdés-Vázquez, Reyna A. Vizguerra-Alvarez

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Reinforced concrete bridges designed by code are intended to achieve target reliability levels adequate for the geographical environment where the code is applicable. Several methods can be used to estimate such reliability levels. Many of them require the establishment of an explicit limit state function (LSF). When such LSF is not available as a close-form expression, the simulation techniques are often employed. The simulation methods are computing intensive and time consuming. Note that if the reliability of real bridges designed by code is of interest, numerical schemes, the finite element method (FEM) or computational mechanics could be required. In these cases, it can be quite difficult (or impossible) to establish a close-form of the LSF, and the simulation techniques may be necessary to compute reliability levels. To overcome the need for a large number of simulations when no explicit LSF is available, the point estimate method (PEM) could be considered as an alternative. It has the advantage that only the probabilistic moments of the random variables are required. However, in the PEM, fitting of the resulting moments of the LSF to a probability density function (PDF) is needed. In the present study, a very simple alternative which allows the assessment of the reliability levels when no explicit LSF is available and without the need of extensive simulations is employed. The alternative includes the use of the PEM, and its applicability is shown by assessing reliability levels of reinforced concrete bridges in Mexico when a numerical scheme is required. Comparisons with results by using the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) technique are included. To overcome the problem of approximating the probabilistic moments from the PEM to a PDF, a well-known distribution is employed. The approach mixes the PEM and other classic reliability method (first order reliability method, FORM). The results in the present study are in good agreement whit those computed with the MCS. Therefore, the alternative of mixing the reliability methods is a very valuable option to determine reliability levels when no close form of the LSF is available, or if numerical schemes, the FEM or computational mechanics are employed.

Keywords: Structural reliability, reinforced concrete bridges, mixing approaches, point estimate method, Monte Carlo simulation.

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Authors: Mikhail V. Khachaturyan, Inga A. Koryagina, Maria Nikishova

Abstract:

The study investigates the impact of the ongoing financial crisis, started in the 2^nd half of 2014, on marketing budgets spent by Fast-moving consumer goods companies. In these conditions, special importance is given to efficient possessory risk management systems. The main objective for establishing and developing possessory risk management systems for FMCG companies in a crisis is to analyze the data relating to the external environment and consumer behavior in a crisis. Another important objective for possessory risk management systems of FMCG companies is to develop measures and mechanisms to maintain and stimulate sales. In this regard, analysis of risks and threats which consumers define as the main reasons affecting their level of consumption become important. It is obvious that in crisis conditions the effective risk management systems responsible for development and implementation of strategies for consumer demand stimulation, as well as the identification, analysis, assessment and management of other types of risks of economic security will be the key to sustainability of a company. In terms of financial and economic crisis, the problem of forming and developing possessory risk management systems becomes critical not only in the context of management models of FMCG companies, but for all the companies operating in other sectors of the Russian economy. This study attempts to analyze the specifics of formation and development of company possessory risk management systems. In the modern economy, special importance among all the types of owner’s risks has the risk of reduction in consumer activity. This type of risk is common not only for the consumer goods trade. Study of consumer activity decline is especially important for Russia due to domestic market of consumer goods being still in the development stage, despite its significant growth. In this regard, it is especially important to form and develop possessory risk management systems for FMCG companies. The authors offer their own interpretation of the process of forming and developing possessory risk management systems within owner’s management models of FMCG companies as well as in Russian economy in general. Proposed methods and mechanisms of problem analysis of formation and development of possessory risk management systems in FMCG companies and the results received can be helpful for researchers interested in problems of consumer goods market development in Russia and overseas.

Keywords: FMCG companies, marketing budget, risk management, owner, Russian economy, organization, formation, development, system.

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