Search results for: Load forecast
1439 The Effect of Reducing Superimposed Dead Load on the Lateral Seismic Deformations of Structures
Authors: H. Alnajajra, A. Touqan, M. Dwaikat
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The vast majority of the Middle East countries are prone to earthquakes. Despite that and from a seismic hazard point of view, the higher values of the superimposed dead load intensity of partitions and wearing materials of the constructed reinforced concrete slabs in these countries can increase the earthquake vulnerability of the structures. The primary objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of reducing superimposed dead load on the lateral seismic deformations of structures, the inter-story drifts and the seismic pounding damages. The study utilizes a group of three reinforced concrete structures at three different site conditions. These structures are assumed to be constructed in Nablus city of Palestine, and having superimposed dead load value as 1 kN/m2, 3 kN/m2, and 5 kN/m2, respectively. SAP2000 program, Version 18.1.1, is used to perform the response spectrum analysis to obtain the potential lateral seismic deformations of the studied models. Amazingly, the study points that, at the same site, superimposed dead load has a minor effect on the lateral deflections of the models. This, however, promotes the hypothesis that buildings failed during earthquakes mainly because they were not designed appropriately against gravity loads.
Keywords: Gravity loads, inter-story drifts, lateral seismic deformations, reinforced concrete slabs, response spectrum method, SAP2000, seismic design, seismic pounding, superimposed dead load.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13831438 Optimal Placement and Sizing of SVC for Load Margin Improvement Using BF Algorithm
Authors: Santi Behera, M. Tripathy, J. K. Satapathy
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Power systems are operating under stressed condition due to continuous increase in demand of load. This can lead to voltage instability problem when face additional load increase or contingency. In order to avoid voltage instability suitable size of reactive power compensation at optimal location in the system is required which improves the load margin. This work aims at obtaining optimal size as well as location of compensation in the 39- bus New England system with the help of Bacteria Foraging and Genetic algorithms. To reduce the computational time the work identifies weak candidate buses in the system, and then picks only two of them to take part in the optimization. The objective function is based on a recently proposed voltage stability index which takes into account the weighted average sensitivity index is a simpler and faster approach than the conventional CPF algorithm. BFOA has been found to give better results compared to GA.
Keywords: BFOA, GA, SSVSL, WASI.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21961437 Neural Network Optimal Power Flow(NN-OPF) based on IPSO with Developed Load Cluster Method
Authors: Mat Syai'in, Adi Soeprijanto
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An Optimal Power Flow based on Improved Particle Swarm Optimization (OPF-IPSO) with Generator Capability Curve Constraint is used by NN-OPF as a reference to get pattern of generator scheduling. There are three stages in Designing NN-OPF. The first stage is design of OPF-IPSO with generator capability curve constraint. The second stage is clustering load to specific range and calculating its index. The third stage is training NN-OPF using constructive back propagation method. In training process total load and load index used as input, and pattern of generator scheduling used as output. Data used in this paper is power system of Java-Bali. Software used in this simulation is MATLAB.Keywords: Optimal Power Flow, Generator Capability Curve, Improved Particle Swarm Optimization, Neural Network
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19551436 Improvement of Load Carrying Capacity of an RCC T-Beam Bridge Longitudinal Girder by Replacing Steel Bars with SMA Bars
Authors: N. K. Paul, S. Saha
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An innovative three dimensional finite element model has beed developed and tested under two point loading system to examine the structural behavior of the longitudinal reinforced concrete Tee-beam bridge girder, reinforcing with steel and shape memory alloy bars respectively. 25% of steel bars are replaced with superelastic Shape Memory Alloy bars in this study. Finite element analysis is performed using ANSYS 11.0 program. Experimentally a model of steel reinforced girder has been casted and its load deflection responses are checked with ANSYS analysis. A comparison of load carrying capacity for the model between steel RC girder and the girder combined reinforcement with SMA and steel are also performed.
Keywords: Shape memory alloy, bridge girder, ANSYS, load-deflection.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8941435 Worm Gearing Design Improvement by Considering Varying Mesh Stiffness
Authors: A. H. Elkholy, A. H. Falah
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A new approach has been developed to estimate the load share and distribution of worm gear drives, and to calculate the instantaneous tooth meshing stiffness. In the approach, the worm gear drive was modelled as a series of spur gear slices, and each slice was analyzed separately using the well-established formulae of spur gear loading and stresses. By combining the results obtained for all slices, the entire envolute worm gear set loading and stressing was obtained. The geometric modelling method presented allows tooth elastic deformation and tooth root stresses of worm gear drives under different load conditions to be investigated. Based on the slicing method introduced in this study, the instantaneous meshing stiffness and load share are obtained. In comparison with existing methods, this approach has both good analysis accuracy and less computing time.Keywords: Gear, load/stress distribution, worm, wheel, tooth stiffness, contact line.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 22311434 PM10 Prediction and Forecasting Using CART: A Case Study for Pleven, Bulgaria
Authors: Snezhana G. Gocheva-Ilieva, Maya P. Stoimenova
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Ambient air pollution with fine particulate matter (PM10) is a systematic permanent problem in many countries around the world. The accumulation of a large number of measurements of both the PM10 concentrations and the accompanying atmospheric factors allow for their statistical modeling to detect dependencies and forecast future pollution. This study applies the classification and regression trees (CART) method for building and analyzing PM10 models. In the empirical study, average daily air data for the city of Pleven, Bulgaria for a period of 5 years are used. Predictors in the models are seven meteorological variables, time variables, as well as lagged PM10 variables and some lagged meteorological variables, delayed by 1 or 2 days with respect to the initial time series, respectively. The degree of influence of the predictors in the models is determined. The selected best CART models are used to forecast future PM10 concentrations for two days ahead after the last date in the modeling procedure and show very accurate results.Keywords: Cross-validation, decision tree, lagged variables, short-term forecasting.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 7451433 Increasing Replica Consistency Performances with Load Balancing Strategy in Data Grid Systems
Authors: Sarra Senhadji, Amar Kateb, Hafida Belbachir
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Data replication in data grid systems is one of the important solutions that improve availability, scalability, and fault tolerance. However, this technique can also bring some involved issues such as maintaining replica consistency. Moreover, as grid environment are very dynamic some nodes can be more uploaded than the others to become eventually a bottleneck. The main idea of our work is to propose a complementary solution between replica consistency maintenance and dynamic load balancing strategy to improve access performances under a simulated grid environment.
Keywords: Consistency, replication, data grid, load balancing.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 23311432 Signals from the Rocks
Authors: Ernst D. Schmitter
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There is increasing evidence that earthquakes produce electromagnetic signals observable at the surface in the extremely low to very low freqency (ELF - VLF) range often in advance to the main event. These precursors are candidates for prediction purposes. Laboratory experiments con´¼ürm that material under load emits an electromagnetic signature, the detailed generation mechanisms how- ever are not well understood yet.Keywords: Earthquakes, ELF, EM signals from material under load, signal propagation in conductors.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16181431 Forecasting Unemployment Rate in Selected European Countries Using Smoothing Methods
Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk
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The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.
Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 37881430 Numerical Study of Modulus of Subgrade Reaction in Eccentrically Loaded Circular Footing Resting
Authors: Seyed Abolhasan Naeini, Mohammad Hossein Zade
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This article is an attempt to present a numerically study of the behaviour of an eccentrically loaded circular footing resting on sand to determine its ultimate bearing capacity. A surface circular footing of diameter 12 cm (D) was used as shallow foundation. For this purpose, three dimensional models consist of foundation, and medium sandy soil was modelled by ABAQUS software. Bearing capacity of footing was evaluated and the effects of the load eccentricity on bearing capacity, its settlement, and modulus of subgrade reaction were studied. Three different values of load eccentricity with equal space from inside the core on the core boundary and outside the core boundary, which were respectively e=0.75, 1.5, and 2.25 cm, were considered. The results show that by increasing the load eccentricity, the ultimate load and the modulus of subgrade reaction decreased.
Keywords: Circular foundation, eccentric loading, sand, modulus of subgrade reaction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16591429 Internal Loading Distribution in Statically Loaded Ball Bearings Subjected to a Centric Thrust Load: Alternative Approach
Authors: Mário C. Ricci
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An alternative iterative computational procedure is proposed for internal normal ball loads calculation in statically loaded single-row, angular-contact ball bearings, subjected to a known thrust load, which is applied in the inner ring at the geometric bearing center line. An accurate method for curvature radii at contacts with inner and outer raceways in the direction of the motion is used. Numerical aspects of the iterative procedure are discussed. Numerical examples results for a 218 angular-contact ball bearing have been compared with those from the literature. Twenty figures are presented showing the geometrical features, the behavior of the convergence variables and the following parameters as functions of the thrust load: normal ball loads, contact angle, distance between curvature centers, and normal ball and axial deflections.Keywords: Ball, Bearing, Static, Load, Iterative, Numerical, Method.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14761428 Experimental Study on Smart Anchor Head
Authors: Young-Jun You, Ki-Tae Park, Kyu-Wan Lee
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Since prestressed concrete members rely on the tensile strength of the prestressing strands to resist loads, loss of even few them could result catastrophic. Therefore, it is important to measure present residual prestress force. Although there are some techniques for obtaining present prestress force, some problems still remain. One method is to install load cell in front of anchor head but this may increase cost. Load cell is a transducer using the elastic material property. Anchor head is also an elastic material and this might result in monitoring monitor present prestress force. Features of fiber optic sensor such as small size, great sensitivity, high durability can assign sensing function to anchor head. This paper presents the concept of smart anchor head which acts as load cell and experiment for the applicability of it. Test results showed the smart anchor head worked good and strong linear relationship between load and response.Keywords: SHM, prestress force, anchor head, fiber optic sensor
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16111427 Energy Consumption Forecast Procedure for an Industrial Facility
Authors: Tatyana Aleksandrovna Barbasova, Lev Sergeevich Kazarinov, Olga Valerevna Kolesnikova, Aleksandra Aleksandrovna Filimonova
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We regard forecasting of energy consumption by private production areas of a large industrial facility as well as by the facility itself. As for production areas, the forecast is made based on empirical dependencies of the specific energy consumption and the production output. As for the facility itself, implementation of the task to minimize the energy consumption forecasting error is based on adjustment of the facility’s actual energy consumption values evaluated with the metering device and the total design energy consumption of separate production areas of the facility. The suggested procedure of optimal energy consumption was tested based on the actual data of core product output and energy consumption by a group of workshops and power plants of the large iron and steel facility. Test results show that implementation of this procedure gives the mean accuracy of energy consumption forecasting for winter 2014 of 0.11% for the group of workshops and 0.137% for the power plants.Keywords: Energy consumption, energy consumption forecasting error, energy efficiency, forecasting accuracy, forecasting.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17231426 Prediction of Load Capacity of Reinforced Concrete Corbels Strengthened with CFRP Sheets
Authors: Azad A. Mohammed, Gulan B. Hassan
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Analytical procedure was carried out in this paper to calculate the ultimate load capacity of reinforced concrete corbels strengthened or repaired externally with CFRP sheets. Strut and tie method and shear friction method proposed earlier for analyzing reinforced concrete corbels were modified to incorporate the effect of external CFRP sheets bonded to the corbel. The points of weakness of any method that lead to an inaccuracy, especially when overestimating test results were checked and discussed. Comparison of prediction with the test data indicates that the ratio of test / calculated ultimate load is 0.82 and 1.17 using strut and tie method and shear friction method, respectively. If the limits of maximum shear stress is followed, the calculated ultimate load capacity using shear friction method was found to underestimates test data considerably.Keywords: Corbel, Strengthening, Strut and Tie Model, Shear Friction
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 27581425 Thermomechanical Coupled Analysis of Fiber Reinforced Polymer Composite Square Tube: A Finite Element Study
Authors: M. Ali, K. Alam, E. Ohioma
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This paper presents a numerical investigation on the behavior of fiber reinforced polymer composite tubes (FRP) under thermomechanical coupled loading using finite element software ABAQUS and a special add-on subroutine, CZone. Three cases were explored; pure mechanical loading, pure thermal loading, and coupled thermomechanical loading. The failure index (Tsai-Wu) under all three loading cases was assessed for all plies in the tube walls. The simulation results under pure mechanical loading showed that composite tube failed at a tensile load of 3.1 kN. However, with the superposition of thermal load on mechanical load on the composite tube, the failure index of the previously failed plies in tube walls reduced significantly causing the tube to fail at 6 kN. This showed 93% improvement in the load carrying capacity of the composite tube in present study. The increase in load carrying capacity was attributed to the stress effects of the coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) on the laminate as well as the inter-lamina stresses induced due to the composite stack layup.
Keywords: Thermal, mechanical, composites, square tubes.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19531424 Statistical and Land Planning Study of Tourist Arrivals in Greece during 2005-2016
Authors: Dimitra Alexiou
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During the last 10 years, in spite of the economic crisis, the number of tourists arriving in Greece has increased, particularly during the tourist season from April to October. In this paper, the number of annual tourist arrivals is studied to explore their preferences with regard to the month of travel, the selected destinations, as well the amount of money spent. The collected data are processed with statistical methods, yielding numerical and graphical results. From the computation of statistical parameters and the forecasting with exponential smoothing, useful conclusions are arrived at that can be used by the Greek tourism authorities, as well as by tourist organizations, for planning purposes for the coming years. The results of this paper and the computed forecast can also be used for decision making by private tourist enterprises that are investing in Greece. With regard to the statistical methods, the method of Simple Exponential Smoothing of time series of data is employed. The search for a best forecast for 2017 and 2018 provides the value of the smoothing coefficient. For all statistical computations and graphics Microsoft Excel is used.
Keywords: Tourism, statistical methods, exponential smoothing, land spatial planning, economy, Microsoft Excel.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 7151423 Numerical Investigation on Load Bearing Capacity of Pervious Concrete Piles as an Alternative to Granular Columns
Authors: Ashkan Shafee, Masoud Ghodrati, Ahmad Fahimifar
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Pervious concrete combines considerable permeability with adequate strength, which makes it very beneficial in pavement construction and also in ground improvement projects. In this paper, a single pervious concrete pile subjected to vertical and lateral loading is analysed using a verified three dimensional finite element code. A parametric study was carried out in order to investigate load bearing capacity of a single unreinforced pervious concrete pile in saturated soft soil and also gain insight into the failure mechanism of this rather new soil improvement technique. The results show that concrete damaged plasticity constitutive model can perfectly simulate the highly brittle nature of the pervious concrete material and considering the computed vertical and horizontal load bearing capacities, some suggestions have been made for ground improvement projects.
Keywords: Concrete damaged plasticity, ground improvement, load bearing capacity, pervious concrete pile.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 10541422 Application of Company Financial Crisis Early Warning Model- Use of “Financial Reference Database“
Authors: Chiung-ying Lee, Chia-hua Chang
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In July 1, 2007, Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) on market observation post system (MOPS) adds a new "Financial reference database" for investors to do investment reference. This database as a warning to public offering companies listed on the public financial information and it original within eight targets. In this paper, this database provided by the indicators for the application of company financial crisis early warning model verify that the database provided by the indicator forecast for the financial crisis, whether or not companies have a high accuracy rate as opposed to domestic and foreign scholars have positive results. There is use of Logistic Regression Model application of the financial early warning model, in which no joined back-conditions is the first model, joined it in is the second model, has been taken occurred in the financial crisis of companies to research samples and then business took place before the financial crisis point with T-1 and T-2 sample data to do positive analysis. The results show that this database provided the debt ratio and net per share for the best forecast variables.Keywords: Financial reference database, Financial early warning model, Logistic Regression.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14371421 Design and Realization of an Electronic Load for a PEM Fuel Cell
Authors: Arafet Bouaicha, Hatem Allegui, Amar Rouane, El-Hassane Aglzim, Abdelkader Mami
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In order to further understand the behavior of PEM fuel cell and optimize their performance, it is necessary to perform measurements in real time. The internal impedance measurement by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) is of great importance. In this work, we present the impedance measurement method of a PEM fuel cell by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy method and the realization steps of electronic load for this measuring technique implementation. The theoretical results are obtained from the simulation of software PSPICE® and experimental tests are carried out using the Ballard Nexa™ PEM fuel cell system.
Keywords: Electronic load, MOS transistor, PEM fuel cell, Impedance measurement, Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS).
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 23791420 Water Demand Prediction for Touristic Mecca City in Saudi Arabia using Neural Networks
Authors: Abdel Hamid Ajbar, Emad Ali
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Saudi Arabia is an arid country which depends on costly desalination plants to satisfy the growing residential water demand. Prediction of water demand is usually a challenging task because the forecast model should consider variations in economic progress, climate conditions and population growth. The task is further complicated knowing that Mecca city is visited regularly by large numbers during specific months in the year due to religious occasions. In this paper, a neural networks model is proposed to handle the prediction of the monthly and yearly water demand for Mecca city, Saudi Arabia. The proposed model will be developed based on historic records of water production and estimated visitors- distribution. The driving variables for the model include annuallyvarying variables such as household income, household density, and city population, and monthly-varying variables such as expected number of visitors each month and maximum monthly temperature.Keywords: Water demand forecast; Neural Networks model; water resources management; Saudi Arabia.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18221419 A Methodology of Testing Beam to Column Connection under Lateral Impact Load
Authors: A. Al-Rifaie, Z. W. Guan, S. W. Jones
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Beam to column connection can be considered as the most important structural part that affects the response of buildings to progressive collapse. However, many studies were conducted to investigate the beam to column connection under accidental loads such as fire, blast and impact load to investigate the connection response. The study is a part of a PhD plan to investigate different types of connections under lateral impact load. The conventional test setups, such as cruciform setup, were designed to apply shear forces and bending moment on the connection, whilst, in the lateral impact case, the connection is subjected to combined tension and moment. Hence, a review is presented to introduce the previous test setup that is used to investigate the connection behaviour. Then, the design and fabrication of the novel test setup is presented. Finally, some trial test results to investigate the efficiency of the proposed setup are discussed. The final results indicate that the setup was efficient in terms of the simplicity and strength.
Keywords: Connections, impact load, drop hammer, testing methods.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12081418 Enhancement of the Performance of Al-Qatraneh 33-kV Transmission Line Using STATCOM: A Case Study
Authors: Ali Hamad, Ibrahim Al-Drous, Saleh Al-Jufout
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This paper presents a case study of using STATCOM to enhance the performance of Al-Qatraneh 33-kV transmission line. The location of the STATCOM was identified by maintaining minimum voltage drops at the 110 load nodes. The transmission line and the 110 load nodes have been modeled by MATLAB/Simulink. The suggested STATCOM and its location will increase the transmission capability of this transmission line and overcome the overload expected in the year 2020. The annual percentage loading rise has been considered as 14.35%. A graphical representation of the line-to-line voltages and the voltage drops at different load nodes is illustrated.
Keywords: FACTS, MATLAB, STATCOM, transmission line, voltage drop.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21321417 Mechanical Equation of State in an Al-Li Alloy
Authors: Jung-Ho Moon, Tae Kwon Ha
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Existence of plastic equation of state has been investigated by performing a series of load relaxation tests at various temperatures using an Al-Li alloy. A plastic equation of state is first developed from a simple kinetics consideration for a mechanical activation process of a leading dislocation piled up against grain boundaries. A series of load relaxation test has been conducted at temperatures ranging from 200 to 530oC to obtain the stress-strain rate curves. A plastic equation of state has been derived from a simple consideration of dislocation kinetics and confirmed by experimental results.
Keywords: Plastic equation of state, Dislocation kinetics, Load relaxation test, Al-Li alloy, Microstructure.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18091416 Model-free Prediction based on Tracking Theory and Newton Form of Polynomial
Authors: Guoyuan Qi , Yskandar Hamam, Barend Jacobus van Wyk, Shengzhi Du
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The majority of existing predictors for time series are model-dependent and therefore require some prior knowledge for the identification of complex systems, usually involving system identification, extensive training, or online adaptation in the case of time-varying systems. Additionally, since a time series is usually generated by complex processes such as the stock market or other chaotic systems, identification, modeling or the online updating of parameters can be problematic. In this paper a model-free predictor (MFP) for a time series produced by an unknown nonlinear system or process is derived using tracking theory. An identical derivation of the MFP using the property of the Newton form of the interpolating polynomial is also presented. The MFP is able to accurately predict future values of a time series, is stable, has few tuning parameters and is desirable for engineering applications due to its simplicity, fast prediction speed and extremely low computational load. The performance of the proposed MFP is demonstrated using the prediction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index.Keywords: Forecast, model-free predictor, prediction, time series
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17871415 A Two-Stage Multi-Agent System to Predict the Unsmoothed Monthly Sunspot Numbers
Authors: Mak Kaboudan
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A multi-agent system is developed here to predict monthly details of the upcoming peak of the 24th solar magnetic cycle. While studies typically predict the timing and magnitude of cycle peaks using annual data, this one utilizes the unsmoothed monthly sunspot number instead. Monthly numbers display more pronounced fluctuations during periods of strong solar magnetic activity than the annual sunspot numbers. Because strong magnetic activities may cause significant economic damages, predicting monthly variations should provide different and perhaps helpful information for decision-making purposes. The multi-agent system developed here operates in two stages. In the first, it produces twelve predictions of the monthly numbers. In the second, it uses those predictions to deliver a final forecast. Acting as expert agents, genetic programming and neural networks produce the twelve fits and forecasts as well as the final forecast. According to the results obtained, the next peak is predicted to be 156 and is expected to occur in October 2011- with an average of 136 for that year.Keywords: Computational techniques, discrete wavelet transformations, solar cycle prediction, sunspot numbers.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13331414 An Ergonomic Evaluation of Three Load Carriage Systems for Reducing Muscle Activity of Trunk and Lower Extremities during Giant Puppet Performing Tasks
Authors: Cathy SW. Chow, Kristina Shin, Faming Wang, B. C. L. So
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During some dynamic giant puppet performances, an ergonomically designed load carrier system is necessary for the puppeteers to carry a giant puppet body’s heavy load with minimum muscle stress. A load carrier (i.e. prototype) was designed with two small wheels on the foot; and a hybrid spring device on the knee in order to assist the sliding and knee bending movements respectively. Thus, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of three load carriers including two other commercially available load mounting systems, Tepex and SuitX, and the prototype. Ten male participants were recruited for the experiment. Surface electromyography (sEMG) was used to collect the participants’ muscle activities during forward moving and bouncing and with and without load of 11.1 kg that was 60 cm above the shoulder. Five bilateral muscles including the lumbar erector spinae (LES), rectus femoris (RF), bicep femoris (BF), tibialis anterior (TA), and gastrocnemius (GM) were selected for data collection. During forward moving task, the sEMG data showed smallest muscle activities by Tepex harness which exhibited consistently the lowest, compared with the prototype and SuitX which were significantly higher on left LES 68.99% and 64.99%, right LES 26.57% and 82.45%; left RF 87.71% and 47.61%, right RF 143.57% and 24.28%; left BF 80.21% and 22.23%, right BF 96.02% and 21.83%; right TA 6.32% and 4.47%; left GM 5.89% and 12.35% respectively. The result above reflected mobility was highly restricted by tested exoskeleton devices. On the other hand, the sEMG data from bouncing task showed the smallest muscle activities by prototype which exhibited consistently the lowest, compared with the Tepex harness and SuitX which were significantly lower on lLES 6.65% and 104.93, rLES 23.56% and 92.19%; lBF 33.21% and 93.26% and rBF 24.70% and 81.16%; lTA 46.51% and 191.02%; rTA 12.75% and 125.76%; IGM 31.54% and 68.36%; rGM 95.95% and 96.43% respectively.Keywords: Exoskeleton, load carriage aid, giant puppet performers, electromyography.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 5591413 A Budget and Deadline Constrained Fault Tolerant Load Balanced Scheduling Algorithm for Computational Grids
Authors: P. Keerthika, P. Suresh
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Grid is an environment with millions of resources which are dynamic and heterogeneous in nature. A computational grid is one in which the resources are computing nodes and is meant for applications that involves larger computations. A scheduling algorithm is said to be efficient if and only if it performs better resource allocation even in case of resource failure. Resource allocation is a tedious issue since it has to consider several requirements such as system load, processing cost and time, user’s deadline and resource failure. This work attempts in designing a resource allocation algorithm which is cost-effective and also targets at load balancing, fault tolerance and user satisfaction by considering the above requirements. The proposed Budget Constrained Load Balancing Fault Tolerant algorithm with user satisfaction (BLBFT) reduces the schedule makespan, schedule cost and task failure rate and improves resource utilization. Evaluation of the proposed BLBFT algorithm is done using Gridsim toolkit and the results are compared with the algorithms which separately concentrates on all these factors. The comparison results ensure that the proposed algorithm works better than its counterparts.Keywords: Grid Scheduling, Load Balancing, fault tolerance, makespan, cost, resource utilization.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21321412 Dynamic Action Induced By Walking Pedestrian
Authors: J. Kala, V. Salajka, P. Hradil
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The main focus of this paper is on the human induced forces. Almost all existing force models for this type of load (defined either in the time or frequency domain) are developed from the assumption of perfect periodicity of the force and are based on force measurements conducted on rigid (i.e. high frequency) surfaces. To verify the different authors conclusions the vertical pressure measurements invoked during the walking was performed, using pressure gauges in various configurations. The obtained forces are analyzed using Fourier transformation. This load is often decisive in the design of footbridges. Design criteria and load models proposed by widely used standards and other researchers were introduced and a comparison was made.Keywords: Pedestrian action, Experimental analysis, Fourier series, serviceability, cycle loading.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 24571411 Forecasting the Fluctuation of Currency Exchange Rate Using Random Forest
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The exchange rate is one of the most important economic variables, especially for a small, open economy such as Albania. Its effect is noticeable on one country's competitiveness, trade and current account, inflation, wages, domestic economic activity and bank stability. This study investigates the fluctuation of Albania’s exchange rates using monthly average foreign currency, Euro (Eur) to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate with a time span from January 2008 to June 2021 and the macroeconomic factors that have a significant effect on the exchange rate. Initially, the Random Forest Regression algorithm is constructed to understand the impact of economic variables in the behavior of monthly average foreign currencies exchange rates. Then the forecast of macro-economic indicators for 12 months was performed using time series models. The predicted values received are placed in the random forest model in order to obtain the average monthly forecast of Euro to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate for the period July 2021 to June 2022.
Keywords: Exchange rate, Random Forest, time series, Machine Learning, forecasting.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 6841410 Intelligent Neural Network Based STLF
Authors: H. Shayeghi, H. A. Shayanfar, G. Azimi
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Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) plays an important role for the economic and secure operation of power systems. In this paper, Continuous Genetic Algorithm (CGA) is employed to evolve the optimum large neural networks structure and connecting weights for one-day ahead electric load forecasting problem. This study describes the process of developing three layer feed-forward large neural networks for load forecasting and then presents a heuristic search algorithm for performing an important task of this process, i.e. optimal networks structure design. The proposed method is applied to STLF of the local utility. Data are clustered due to the differences in their characteristics. Special days are extracted from the normal training sets and handled separately. In this way, a solution is provided for all load types, including working days and weekends and special days. We find good performance for the large neural networks. The proposed methodology gives lower percent errors all the time. Thus, it can be applied to automatically design an optimal load forecaster based on historical data.
Keywords: Feed-forward Large Neural Network, Short-TermLoad Forecasting, Continuous Genetic Algorithm.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1835