Search results for: Dynamical network

Authors: Talal Alsulaiman, Khaldoun Khashanah

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In this paper, we provided a literature survey on the artificial stock problem (ASM). The paper began by exploring the complexity of the stock market and the needs for ASM. ASM aims to investigate the link between individual behaviors (micro level) and financial market dynamics (macro level). The variety of patterns at the macro level is a function of the AFM complexity. The financial market system is a complex system where the relationship between the micro and macro level cannot be captured analytically. Computational approaches, such as simulation, are expected to comprehend this connection. Agent-based simulation is a simulation technique commonly used to build AFMs. The paper proceeds by discussing the components of the ASM. We consider the roles of behavioral finance (BF) alongside the traditionally risk-averse assumption in the construction of agent’s attributes. Also, the influence of social networks in the developing of agents interactions is addressed. Network topologies such as a small world, distance-based, and scale-free networks may be utilized to outline economic collaborations. In addition, the primary methods for developing agents learning and adaptive abilities have been summarized. These incorporated approach such as Genetic Algorithm, Genetic Programming, Artificial neural network and Reinforcement Learning. In addition, the most common statistical properties (the stylized facts) of stock that are used for calibration and validation of ASM are discussed. Besides, we have reviewed the major related previous studies and categorize the utilized approaches as a part of these studies. Finally, research directions and potential research questions are argued. The research directions of ASM may focus on the macro level by analyzing the market dynamic or on the micro level by investigating the wealth distributions of the agents.

Keywords: Artificial stock markets, agent based simulation, bounded rationality, behavioral finance, artificial neural network, interaction, scale-free networks.

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Authors: Pupong Pongcharoen, Aphirak Khadwilard, Anothai Klakankhai

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The importance of supply chain and logistics management has been widely recognised. Effective management of the supply chain can reduce costs and lead times and improve responsiveness to changing customer demands. This paper proposes a multi-matrix real-coded Generic Algorithm (MRGA) based optimisation tool that minimises total costs associated within supply chain logistics. According to finite capacity constraints of all parties within the chain, Genetic Algorithm (GA) often produces infeasible chromosomes during initialisation and evolution processes. In the proposed algorithm, chromosome initialisation procedure, crossover and mutation operations that always guarantee feasible solutions were embedded. The proposed algorithm was tested using three sizes of benchmarking dataset of logistic chain network, which are typical of those faced by most global manufacturing companies. A half fractional factorial design was carried out to investigate the influence of alternative crossover and mutation operators by varying GA parameters. The analysis of experimental results suggested that the quality of solutions obtained is sensitive to the ways in which the genetic parameters and operators are set.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm, Logistics, Optimisation, Supply Chain.

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Authors: Dong-Jae Kang, Nam-Woo Kim, Duk-Joo Son, Sung-In Jung

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According to dramatic growth of internet services, an easy and prompt service deployment has been important for internet service providers to successfully maintain time-to-market. Before global service deployment, they have to pay the big cost for service evaluation to make a decision of the proper system location, system scale, service delay and so on. But, intra-Lab evaluation tends to have big gaps in the measured data compared with the realistic situation, because it is very difficult to accurately expect the local service environment, network congestion, service delay, network bandwidth and other factors. Therefore, to resolve or ease the upper problems, we propose multiple cloud based GPES Broker system and use case that helps internet service providers to alleviate the above problems in beta release phase and to make a prompt decision for their service launching. By supporting more realistic and reliable evaluation information, the proposed GPES Broker system saves the service release cost and enables internet service provider to make a prompt decision about their service launching to various remote regions.

Keywords: GPES Broker system, Cloud Service Broker, Multiple Cloud, Global performance evaluation service (GPES), Service provisioning

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Authors: Mahboobeh Abdoos, Karim Faez, Masoud Sabaei

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Position based routing protocols are the kinds of routing protocols, which they use of nodes location information, instead of links information to routing. In position based routing protocols, it supposed that the packet source node has position information of itself and it's neighbors and packet destination node. Greedy is a very important position based routing protocol. In one of it's kinds, named MFR (Most Forward Within Radius), source node or packet forwarder node, sends packet to one of it's neighbors with most forward progress towards destination node (closest neighbor to destination). Using distance deciding metric in Greedy to forward packet to a neighbor node, is not suitable for all conditions. If closest neighbor to destination node, has high speed, in comparison with source node or intermediate packet forwarder node speed or has very low remained battery power, then packet loss probability is increased. Proposed strategy uses combination of metrics distancevelocity similarity-power, to deciding about giving the packet to which neighbor. Simulation results show that the proposed strategy has lower lost packets average than Greedy, so it has more reliability.

Keywords: Mobile Ad Hoc Network, Position Based, Reliability, Routing.

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Authors: Muhammad Atif, Cang Yan

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The enhancement of low-light images is a significant area of study aimed at enhancing the quality of captured images in challenging lighting environments. Recently, methods based on Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) have gained prominence as they offer state-of-the-art performance. However, many approaches based on CNN rely on increasing the size and complexity of the neural network. In this study, we propose an alternative method for improving low-light images using an Autoencoders-based multiscale knowledge transfer model. Our method leverages the power of three autoencoders, where the encoders of the first two autoencoders are directly connected to the decoder of the third autoencoder. Additionally, the decoder of the first two autoencoders is connected to the encoder of the third autoencoder. This architecture enables effective knowledge transfer, allowing the third autoencoder to learn and benefit from the enhanced knowledge extracted by the first two autoencoders. We further integrate the proposed model into the Pix-to-Pix GAN framework. By integrating our proposed model as the generator in the GAN framework, we aim to produce enhanced images that not only exhibit improved visual quality but also possess a more authentic and realistic appearance. These experimental results, both qualitative and quantitative, show that our method is better than the state-of-the-art methodologies.

Keywords: Low light image enhancement, deep learning, convolutional neural network, image processing.

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Authors: Yao-Tang Chang, Chuen-Ching Wang, Shu-Han Hu

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In order to implement flexibility as well as survivable capacities over passive optical network (PON), a new automatic random fault-recovery mechanism with array-waveguide-grating based (AWG-based) optical switch (OSW) is presented. Firstly, wavelength-division-multiplexing and optical code-division multiple-access (WDM/OCDMA) scheme are configured to meet the various geographical locations requirement between optical network unit (ONU) and optical line terminal (OLT). The AWG-base optical switch is designed and viewed as central star-mesh topology to prohibit/decrease the duplicated redundant elements such as fiber and transceiver as well. Hence, by simple monitoring and routing switch algorithm, random fault-recovery capacity is achieved over bi-directional (up/downstream) WDM/OCDMA scheme. When error of distribution fiber (DF) takes place or bit-error-rate (BER) is higher than 10-9 requirement, the primary/slave AWG-based OSW are adjusted and controlled dynamically to restore the affected ONU groups via the other working DFs immediately.

Keywords: Random fault recovery mechanism, Array-waveguide-grating based optical switch (AWG- based OSW), wavelength-division-multiplexing and optical code-divisionmultiple-access (WDM/ OCDMA)

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Authors: H. Shayeghi, H. A. Shayanfar, G. Azimi

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Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) plays an important role for the economic and secure operation of power systems. In this paper, Continuous Genetic Algorithm (CGA) is employed to evolve the optimum large neural networks structure and connecting weights for one-day ahead electric load forecasting problem. This study describes the process of developing three layer feed-forward large neural networks for load forecasting and then presents a heuristic search algorithm for performing an important task of this process, i.e. optimal networks structure design. The proposed method is applied to STLF of the local utility. Data are clustered due to the differences in their characteristics. Special days are extracted from the normal training sets and handled separately. In this way, a solution is provided for all load types, including working days and weekends and special days. We find good performance for the large neural networks. The proposed methodology gives lower percent errors all the time. Thus, it can be applied to automatically design an optimal load forecaster based on historical data.

Keywords: Feed-forward Large Neural Network, Short-TermLoad Forecasting, Continuous Genetic Algorithm.

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Authors: Umber Iqbal, Shaleeza Sohail, Muhammad Younas Javed

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True integration of multimedia services over wired or wireless networks increase the productivity and effectiveness in today-s networks. IP Multimedia Subsystems are Next Generation Network architecture to provide the multimedia services over fixed or mobile networks. This paper proposes an extended SIP-based QoS Management architecture for IMS services over underlying IP access networks. To guarantee the end-to-end QoS for IMS services in interconnection backbone, SIP based proxy Modules are introduced to support the QoS provisioning and to reduce the handoff disruption time over IP access networks. In our approach these SIP Modules implement the combination of Diffserv and MPLS QoS mechanisms to assure the guaranteed QoS for real-time multimedia services. To guarantee QoS over access networks, SIP Modules make QoS resource reservations in advance to provide best QoS to IMS users over heterogeneous networks. To obtain more reliable multimedia services, our approach allows the use of SCTP protocol over SIP instead of UDP due to its multi-streaming feature. This architecture enables QoS provisioning for IMS roaming users to differentiate IMS network from other common IP networks for transmission of realtime multimedia services. To validate our approach simulation models are developed on short scale basis. The results show that our approach yields comparable performance for efficient delivery of IMS services over heterogeneous IP access networks.

Keywords: SIP-Based QoS Management Architecture, IPMultimedia Subsystems, IP Access Networks

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Authors: B. Janani, S. Thiruvenkadam

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In this work, the system evaluates the impact of considering a stochastic approach on the day ahead basis Unit Commitment. Comparisons between stochastic and deterministic Unit Commitment solutions are provided. The Unit Commitment model consists in the minimization of the total operation costs considering unit’s technical constraints like ramping rates, minimum up and down time. Load shedding and wind power spilling is acceptable, but at inflated operational costs. The evaluation process consists in the calculation of the optimal unit commitment and in verifying the fulfillment of the considered constraints. For the calculation of the optimal unit commitment, an algorithm based on the Benders Decomposition, namely on the Dual Dynamic Programming, was developed. Two approaches were considered on the construction of stochastic solutions. Data related to wind power outputs from two different operational days are considered on the analysis. Stochastic and deterministic solutions are compared based on the actual measured wind power output at the operational day. Through a technique capability of finding representative wind power scenarios and its probabilities, the system can analyze a more detailed process about the expected final operational cost.

Keywords: Benders’ decomposition, network constrained AC unit commitment, stochastic programming, wind power uncertainty.

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Authors: Guojian Cheng, Tianshi Liu, Jiaxin Han, Zheng Wang

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The competitive learning is an adaptive process in which the neurons in a neural network gradually become sensitive to different input pattern clusters. The basic idea behind the Kohonen-s Self-Organizing Feature Maps (SOFM) is competitive learning. SOFM can generate mappings from high-dimensional signal spaces to lower dimensional topological structures. The main features of this kind of mappings are topology preserving, feature mappings and probability distribution approximation of input patterns. To overcome some limitations of SOFM, e.g., a fixed number of neural units and a topology of fixed dimensionality, Growing Self-Organizing Neural Network (GSONN) can be used. GSONN can change its topological structure during learning. It grows by learning and shrinks by forgetting. To speed up the training and convergence, a new variant of GSONN, twin growing cell structures (TGCS) is presented here. This paper first gives an introduction to competitive learning, SOFM and its variants. Then, we discuss some GSONN with fixed dimensionality, which include growing cell structures, its variants and the author-s model: TGCS. It is ended with some testing results comparison and conclusions.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, Competitive learning, Growing cell structures, Self-organizing feature maps.

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Authors: John Kabuba, Antoine Mulaba-Bafubiandi, Kim Battle

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This paper presents a critical study about the application of Neural Networks to ion-exchange process. Ionexchange is a complex non-linear process involving many factors influencing the ions uptake mechanisms from the pregnant solution. The following step includes the elution. Published data presents empirical isotherm equations with definite shortcomings resulting in unreliable predictions. Although Neural Network simulation technique encounters a number of disadvantages including its “black box", and a limited ability to explicitly identify possible causal relationships, it has the advantage to implicitly handle complex nonlinear relationships between dependent and independent variables. In the present paper, the Neural Network model based on the back-propagation algorithm Levenberg-Marquardt was developed using a three layer approach with a tangent sigmoid transfer function (tansig) at hidden layer with 11 neurons and linear transfer function (purelin) at out layer. The above mentioned approach has been used to test the effectiveness in simulating ion exchange processes. The modeling results showed that there is an excellent agreement between the experimental data and the predicted values of copper ions removed from aqueous solutions.

Keywords: Copper, ion-exchange process, neural networks, simulation

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Authors: Emna Benmohamed, Hela Ltifi, Mounir Ben Ayed

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Bayesian Network (BN) is one of the most efficient classification methods. It is widely used in several fields (i.e., medical diagnostics, risk analysis, bioinformatics research). The BN is defined as a probabilistic graphical model that represents a formalism for reasoning under uncertainty. This classification method has a high-performance rate in the extraction of new knowledge from data. The construction of this model consists of two phases for structure learning and parameter learning. For solving this problem, the K2 algorithm is one of the representative data-driven algorithms, which is based on score and search approach. In addition, the integration of the expert's knowledge in the structure learning process allows the obtainment of the highest accuracy. In this paper, we propose a hybrid approach combining the improvement of the K2 algorithm called K2 algorithm for Parents and Children search (K2PC) and the expert-driven method for learning the structure of BN. The evaluation of the experimental results, using the well-known benchmarks, proves that our K2PC algorithm has better performance in terms of correct structure detection. The real application of our model shows its efficiency in the analysis of the phosphate laundry effluents' impact on the watershed in the Gafsa area (southwestern Tunisia).

Keywords: Classification, Bayesian network; structure learning, K2 algorithm, expert knowledge, surface water analysis.

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Authors: Hosein Hamisheh Bahar, Mohammad Hossein Fazel Zarandi, Akbar Esfahanipour

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In this paper, a hybrid expert system is developed by using fuzzy genetic network programming with reinforcement learning (GNP-RL). In this system, the frame-based structure of the system uses the trading rules extracted by GNP. These rules are extracted by using technical indices of the stock prices in the training time period. For developing this system, we applied fuzzy node transition and decision making in both processing and judgment nodes of GNP-RL. Consequently, using these method not only did increase the accuracy of node transition and decision making in GNP's nodes, but also extended the GNP's binary signals to ternary trading signals. In the other words, in our proposed Fuzzy GNP-RL model, a No Trade signal is added to conventional Buy or Sell signals. Finally, the obtained rules are used in a frame-based system implemented in Kappa-PC software. This developed trading system has been used to generate trading signals for ten companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). The simulation results in the testing time period shows that the developed system has more favorable performance in comparison with the Buy and Hold strategy.

Keywords: Fuzzy genetic network programming, hybrid expert system, technical trading signal, Tehran stock exchange.

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Authors: Ramaswamy Palaniappan, Nai-Jen Huan

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Classification of electroencephalogram (EEG) signals extracted during mental tasks is a technique that is actively pursued for Brain Computer Interfaces (BCI) designs. In this paper, we compared the classification performances of univariateautoregressive (AR) and multivariate autoregressive (MAR) models for representing EEG signals that were extracted during different mental tasks. Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) neural network (NN) trained by the backpropagation (BP) algorithm was used to classify these features into the different categories representing the mental tasks. Classification performances were also compared across different mental task combinations and 2 sets of hidden units (HU): 2 to 10 HU in steps of 2 and 20 to 100 HU in steps of 20. Five different mental tasks from 4 subjects were used in the experimental study and combinations of 2 different mental tasks were studied for each subject. Three different feature extraction methods with 6th order were used to extract features from these EEG signals: AR coefficients computed with Burg-s algorithm (ARBG), AR coefficients computed with stepwise least square algorithm (ARLS) and MAR coefficients computed with stepwise least square algorithm. The best results were obtained with 20 to 100 HU using ARBG. It is concluded that i) it is important to choose the suitable mental tasks for different individuals for a successful BCI design, ii) higher HU are more suitable and iii) ARBG is the most suitable feature extraction method.

Keywords: Autoregressive, Brain-Computer Interface, Electroencephalogram, Neural Network.

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Authors: Jacqueline R. T. Alipo-on, Francesca I. F. Escobar, Myles J. T. Tan, Hezerul Abdul Karim, Nouar AlDahoul

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Electrocardiogram (ECG) signal analysis and processing are crucial in the diagnosis of cardiovascular diseases which are considered as one of the leading causes of mortality worldwide. However, the traditional rule-based analysis of large volumes of ECG data is time-consuming, labor-intensive, and prone to human errors. With the advancement of the programming paradigm, algorithms such as machine learning have been increasingly used to perform an analysis on the ECG signals. In this paper, various deep learning algorithms were adapted to classify five classes of heart beat types. The dataset used in this work is the synthetic MIT-Beth Israel Hospital (MIT-BIH) Arrhythmia dataset produced from generative adversarial networks (GANs). Various deep learning models such as ResNet-50 convolutional neural network (CNN), 1-D CNN, and long short-term memory (LSTM) were evaluated and compared. ResNet-50 was found to outperform other models in terms of recall and F1 score using a five-fold average score of 98.88% and 98.87%, respectively. 1-D CNN, on the other hand, was found to have the highest average precision of 98.93%.

Keywords: Heartbeat classification, convolutional neural network, electrocardiogram signals, ECG signals, generative adversarial networks, long short-term memory, LSTM, ResNet-50.

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Authors: Wann-Ming Wey

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In recent years, in addition to face the external threats such as energy shortages and climate change, traffic congestion and environmental pollution have become anxious problems for many cities. Considering private automobile-oriented urban development had produced many negative environmental and social impacts, the transit-oriented development (TOD) has been considered as a sustainable urban model. TOD encourages public transport combined with friendly walking and cycling environment designs, however, non-motorized modes help improving human health, energy saving, and reducing carbon emissions. Due to environmental changes often affect the planners’ decision-making; this research applies dynamic network process (DNP) which includes the time dependent concept to promoting friendly walking and cycling environmental designs as an advanced planning support system for environment improvements.

This research aims to discuss what kinds of design strategies can improve a friendly walking and cycling environment under TOD. First of all, we collate and analyze environment designing factors by reviewing the relevant literatures as well as divide into three aspects of “safety”, “convenience”, and “amenity” from fifteen environment designing factors. Furthermore, we utilize fuzzy Delphi Technique (FDT) expert questionnaire to filter out the more important designing criteria for the study case. Finally, we utilized DNP expert questionnaire to obtain the weights changes at different time points for each design criterion. Based on the changing trends of each criterion weight, we are able to develop appropriate designing strategies as the reference for planners to allocate resources in a dynamic environment. In order to illustrate the approach we propose in this research, Taipei city as one example has been used as an empirical study, and the results are in depth analyzed to explain the application of our proposed approach.

Keywords: Environment Planning Support Systems, Walking and Cycling, Transit-oriented Development (TOD), Dynamic Network Process (DNP).

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Authors: M. Moslehpour, S. Khorsandi

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Due to shortage in IPv4 addresses, transition to IPv6 has gained significant momentum in recent years. Like Address Resolution Protocol (ARP) in IPv4, Neighbor Discovery Protocol (NDP) provides some functions like address resolution in IPv6. Besides functionality of NDP, it is vulnerable to some attacks. To mitigate these attacks, Internet Protocol Security (IPsec) was introduced, but it was not efficient due to its limitation. Therefore, SEND protocol is proposed to automatic protection of auto-configuration process. It is secure neighbor discovery and address resolution process. To defend against threats on NDP’s integrity and identity, Cryptographically Generated Address (CGA) and asymmetric cryptography are used by SEND. Besides advantages of SEND, its disadvantages like the computation process of CGA algorithm and sequentially of CGA generation algorithm are considerable. In this paper, we parallel this process between network resources in order to improve it. In addition, we compare the CGA generation time in self-computing and distributed-computing process. We focus on the impact of the malicious nodes on the CGA generation time in the network. According to the result, although malicious nodes participate in the generation process, CGA generation time is less than when it is computed in a one-way. By Trust Management System, detecting and insulating malicious nodes is easier.

Keywords: NDP, IPsec, SEND, CGA, Modifier, Malicious node, Self-Computing, Distributed-Computing.

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Authors: V. Thulasi Bai, Srivatsa S. K.

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Deaths from cardiovascular diseases have decreased substantially over the past two decades, largely as a result of advances in acute care and cardiac surgery. These developments have produced a growing population of patients who have survived a myocardial infarction. These patients need to be continuously monitored so that the initiation of treatment can be given within the crucial golden hour. The available conventional methods of monitoring mostly perform offline analysis and restrict the mobility of these patients within a hospital or room. Hence the aim of this paper is to design a Portable Cardiac Telemedicine System to aid the patients to regain their independence and return to an active work schedule, there by improving the psychological well being. The portable telemedicine system consists of a Wearable ECG Transmitter (WET) and a slightly modified mobile phone, which has an inbuilt ECG analyzer. The WET is placed on the body of the patient that continuously acquires the ECG signals from the high-risk cardiac patients who can move around anywhere. This WET transmits the ECG to the patient-s Bluetooth enabled mobile phone using blue tooth technology. The ECG analyzer inbuilt in the mobile phone continuously analyzes the heartbeats derived from the received ECG signals. In case of any panic condition, the mobile phone alerts the patients care taker by an SMS and initiates the transmission of a sample ECG signal to the doctor, via the mobile network.

Keywords: WET, ECG analyzer, Bluetooth, mobilecellular network, high risk cardiac patients.

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Authors: Shuen-Tai Wang, Fang-An Kuo, Chau-Yi Chou, Yu-Bin Fang

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2016 has become the year of the Artificial Intelligence explosion. AI technologies are getting more and more matured that most world well-known tech giants are making large investment to increase the capabilities in AI. Machine learning is the science of getting computers to act without being explicitly programmed, and deep learning is a subset of machine learning that uses deep neural network to train a machine to learn  features directly from data. Deep learning realizes many machine learning applications which expand the field of AI. At the present time, deep learning frameworks have been widely deployed on servers for deep learning applications in both academia and industry. In training deep neural networks, there are many standard processes or algorithms, but the performance of different frameworks might be different. In this paper we evaluate the running performance of two state-of-the-art distributed deep learning frameworks that are running training calculation in parallel over multi GPU and multi nodes in our cloud environment. We evaluate the training performance of the frameworks with ResNet-50 convolutional neural network, and we analyze what factors that result in the performance among both distributed frameworks as well. Through the experimental analysis, we identify the overheads which could be further optimized. The main contribution is that the evaluation results provide further optimization directions in both performance tuning and algorithmic design.

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, machine learning, deep learning, convolutional neural networks.

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Authors: Ahmet Kayabasi, Ali Akdagli

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In this study, three robust predicting methods, namely artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and support vector machine (SVM) were used for computing the resonant frequency of A-shaped compact microstrip antennas (ACMAs) operating at UHF band. Firstly, the resonant frequencies of 144 ACMAs with various dimensions and electrical parameters were simulated with the help of IE3D™ based on method of moment (MoM). The ANN, ANFIS and SVM models for computing the resonant frequency were then built by considering the simulation data. 124 simulated ACMAs were utilized for training and the remaining 20 ACMAs were used for testing the ANN, ANFIS and SVM models. The performance of the ANN, ANFIS and SVM models are compared in the training and test process. The average percentage errors (APE) regarding the computed resonant frequencies for training of the ANN, ANFIS and SVM were obtained as 0.457%, 0.399% and 0.600%, respectively. The constructed models were then tested and APE values as 0.601% for ANN, 0.744% for ANFIS and 0.623% for SVM were achieved. The results obtained here show that ANN, ANFIS and SVM methods can be successfully applied to compute the resonant frequency of ACMAs, since they are useful and versatile methods that yield accurate results.

Keywords: A-shaped compact microstrip antenna, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Support Vector Machine (SVM).

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Authors: Mochammad Dewo, Sumarsono Sudarto

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The Exponential Triple Smoothing Algorithm approach nowadays, which is used to anticipate the export value of Indonesia's two major commodities, coal and palm oil, has a Mean Percentage Absolute Error (MAPE) value of 30-50%, which may be considered as a "reasonable" forecasting mistake. Forecasting errors of more than 30% shall have a domino effect on industrial output, as extra production adds to raw material, manufacturing and storage expenses. Whereas, reaching an "excellent" classification with an error value of less than 10% will provide new investors and exporters with confidence in the commercial development of related sectors. Industrial growth will bring out a positive impact on economic development. It can be applied for other commodities if the forecast error is less than 10%. The purpose of this project is to create a forecasting technique that can produce precise forecasting results with an error of less than 10%. This research analyzes forecasting methods such as ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), ANN (Artificial Neural Network) and LSTM (Long-Short Term Memory). By providing a MAPE of 1%, this study reveals that ANN is the most successful strategy for forecasting coal and palm oil commodities in Indonesia.

Keywords: ANN, Artificial Neural Network, ARIMA, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, export value, forecast, LSTM, Long Short Term Memory.

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Authors: Endri Rama, Genci Capi, Shigenori Kawahara

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The mobile robot ability to navigate autonomously in its environment is very important. Even though the advances in technology, robot self-localization and goal directed navigation in complex environments are still challenging tasks. In this article, we propose a novel method for robot navigation based on rat’s brain signals (Local Field Potentials). It has been well known that rats accurately and rapidly navigate in a complex space by localizing themselves in reference to the surrounding environmental cues. As the first step to incorporate the rat’s navigation strategy into the robot control, we analyzed the rats’ strategies while it navigates in a multiple Y-maze, and recorded Local Field Potentials (LFPs) simultaneously from three brain regions. Next, we processed the LFPs, and the extracted features were used as an input in the artificial neural network to predict the rat’s next location, especially in the decision-making moment, in Y-junctions. We developed an algorithm by which the robot learned to imitate the rat’s decision-making by mapping the rat’s brain signals into its own actions. Finally, the robot learned to integrate the internal states as well as external sensors in order to localize and navigate in the complex environment.

Keywords: Brain machine interface, decision-making, local field potentials, mobile robot, navigation, neural network, rat, signal processing.

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Authors: Haruo Okabayashi

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Human biological signals (pulse wave and brain wave, etc.) have a rhythm which shows fluctuations. This study investigates the relationship between fluctuations of biological signals which are shown by a finger plethysmogram (i.e., finger pulse wave) in conversation and anthropophobic tendency, and identifies whether the fluctuation could be an index of mental health. 32 college students participated in the experiment. The finger plethysmogram of each subject was measured in the following conversation situations: Fun memory talking/listening situation and regrettable memory talking/ listening situation for three minutes each. Lyspect 3.5 was used to collect the data of the finger plethysmogram. Since Lyspect calculates the Lyapunov spectrum, it is possible to obtain the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE). LLE is an indicator of the fluctuation and shows the degree to which a measure is going away from close proximity to the track in a dynamical system. Before the finger plethysmogram experiment, each participant took the psychological test questionnaire “Anthropophobic Scale.” The scale measures the social phobia trend close to the consciousness of social phobia. It is revealed that there is a remarkable relationship between the fluctuation of the finger plethysmography and anthropophobic tendency scale in talking about a regrettable story in conversation: The participants (N=15) who have a low anthropophobic tendency show significantly more fluctuation of finger pulse waves than the participants (N=17) who have a high anthropophobic tendency (F (1, 31) =5.66, p<0.05). That is, the participants who have a low anthropophobic tendency make conversation flexibly using large fluctuation of biological signal; on the other hand, the participants who have a high anthropophobic tendency constrain a conversation because of small fluctuation. Therefore, fluctuation is not an error but an important drive to make better relationships with others and go towards the development of interaction. In considering mental health, the fluctuation of biological signals would be an important indicator.

Keywords: Anthropophobic tendency, finger plethymogram, fluctuation of biological signal, LLE.

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Authors: Bharathi P. T, P. Subashini

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Ice cover County has a significant impact on rivers as it affects with the ice melting capacity which results in flooding, restrict navigation, modify the ecosystem and microclimate. River ices are made up of different ice types with varying ice thickness, so surveillance of river ice plays an important role. River ice types are captured using infrared imaging camera which captures the images even during the night times. In this paper the river ice infrared texture images are analysed using first-order statistical methods and secondorder statistical methods. The second order statistical methods considered are spatial gray level dependence method, gray level run length method and gray level difference method. The performance of the feature extraction methods are evaluated by using Probabilistic Neural Network classifier and it is found that the first-order statistical method and second-order statistical method yields low accuracy. So the features extracted from the first-order statistical method and second-order statistical method are combined and it is observed that the result of these combined features (First order statistical method + gray level run length method) provides higher accuracy when compared with the features from the first-order statistical method and second-order statistical method alone.

Keywords: Gray Level Difference Method, Gray Level Run Length Method, Kurtosis, Probabilistic Neural Network, Skewness, Spatial Gray Level Dependence Method.

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Authors: Vijayalakshmy Periaswamy S., Kevin McDaid

Abstract:

Testing accounts for the major percentage of technical contribution in the software development process. Typically, it consumes more than 50 percent of the total cost of developing a piece of software. The selection of software tests is a very important activity within this process to ensure the software reliability requirements are met. Generally tests are run to achieve maximum coverage of the software code and very little attention is given to the achieved reliability of the software. Using an existing methodology, this paper describes how to use Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to select unit tests based on their contribution to the reliability of the module under consideration. In particular the work examines how the approach can enhance test-first development by assessing the quality of test suites resulting from this development methodology and providing insight into additional tests that can significantly reduce the achieved reliability. In this way the method can produce an optimal selection of inputs and the order in which the tests are executed to maximize the software reliability. To illustrate this approach, a belief network is constructed for a modern software system incorporating the expert opinion, expressed through probabilities of the relative quality of the elements of the software, and the potential effectiveness of the software tests. The steps involved in constructing the Bayesian Network are explained as is a method to allow for the test suite resulting from test-driven development.

Keywords: Software testing, Test Driven Development, Bayesian Belief Networks.

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Authors: Cameron Hamilton, Walter Potter, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Ronald McClendon, Will Hobbs

Abstract:

A model was constructed to predict the amount of solar radiation that will make contact with the surface of the earth in a given location an hour into the future. This project was supported by the Southern Company to determine at what specific times during a given day of the year solar panels could be relied upon to produce energy in sufficient quantities. Due to their ability as universal function approximators, an artificial neural network was used to estimate the nonlinear pattern of solar radiation, which utilized measurements of weather conditions collected at the Griffin, Georgia weather station as inputs. A number of network configurations and training strategies were utilized, though a multilayer perceptron with a variety of hidden nodes trained with the resilient propagation algorithm consistently yielded the most accurate predictions. In addition, a modeled direct normal irradiance field and adjacent weather station data were used to bolster prediction accuracy. In later trials, the solar radiation field was preprocessed with a discrete wavelet transform with the aim of removing noise from the measurements. The current model provides predictions of solar radiation with a mean square error of 0.0042, though ongoing efforts are being made to further improve the model’s accuracy.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Resilient Propagation, Solar Radiation, Time Series Forecasting.

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Authors: Fariba Shavakhi Zavareh, Hadi Fotoohabadi, Reza Sedaghati

Abstract:

Due to the continuous increment of the load demand, identification of weaker buses, improvement of voltage profile and power losses in the context of the voltage stability problems has become one of the major concerns for the larger, complex, interconnected power systems. The objective of this paper is to review the impact of Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) controller in Wind generators connected electrical network for maintaining voltage stability. Wind energy could be the growing renewable energy due to several advantages. The influence of wind generators on power quality is a significant issue; non uniform power production causes variations in system voltage and frequency. Therefore, wind farm requires high reactive power compensation; the advances in high power semiconducting devices have led to the development of FACTS. The FACTS devices such as for example SVC inject reactive power into the system which helps in maintaining a better voltage profile. The performance is evaluated on an IEEE 14 bus system, two wind generators are connected at low voltage buses to meet the increased load demand and SVC devices are integrated at the buses with wind generators to keep voltage stability. Power flows, nodal voltage magnitudes and angles of the power network are obtained by iterative solutions using MIPOWER.

Keywords: Voltage Profile, FACTS Device, SVC, Distributed Generation.

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Authors: Yao-Hong Tsai

Abstract:

Due to the sensor technology, video surveillance has become the main way for security control in every big city in the world. Surveillance is usually used by governments for intelligence gathering, the prevention of crime, the protection of a process, person, group or object, or the investigation of crime. Many surveillance systems based on computer vision technology have been developed in recent years. Moving target tracking is the most common task for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) to find and track objects of interest in mobile aerial surveillance for civilian applications. The paper is focused on vision-based collision avoidance for UAVs by recurrent neural networks. First, images from cameras on UAV were fused based on deep convolutional neural network. Then, a recurrent neural network was constructed to obtain high-level image features for object tracking and extracting low-level image features for noise reducing. The system distributed the calculation of the whole system to local and cloud platform to efficiently perform object detection, tracking and collision avoidance based on multiple UAVs. The experiments on several challenging datasets showed that the proposed algorithm outperforms the state-of-the-art methods.

Keywords: Unmanned aerial vehicle, object tracking, deep learning, collision avoidance.

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Authors: K. Durairaj, I. N. Umar

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The asynchronous discussion forum is one of the most widely used activities in learning management system environment. Online forum allows participants to interact, construct knowledge, and can be used to complement face to face sessions in blended learning courses. However, to what extent do the students perceive the benefits or advantages of forum remain to be seen. Through content and social network analyses, instructors will be able to gauge the students’ engagement and knowledge construction level. Thus, this study aims to analyze the students’ level of knowledge construction and their participation level that occur through online discussion. It also attempts to investigate the relationship between the level of knowledge construction and their social interaction patterns. The sample involves 23 students undertaking a master course in one public university in Malaysia. The asynchronous discussion forum was conducted for three weeks as part of the course requirement. The finding indicates that the level of knowledge construction is quite low. Also, the density value of 0.11 indicating the overall communication among the participants in the forum is low. This study reveals that strong and significant correlations between SNA measures (in-degree centrality, out-degree centrality) and level of knowledge construction. Thus, allocating these active students in different group aids the interactive discussion takes place. Finally, based upon the findings, some recommendations to increase students’ level of knowledge construction and also for further research are proposed.

Keywords: Asynchronous Discussion Forums, Content Analysis, Knowledge Construction, Social Network Analysis.

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Authors: Andrii Shalaginov, Katrin Franke, Xiongwei Huang

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One of the leading problems in Cyber Security today is the emergence of targeted attacks conducted by adversaries with access to sophisticated tools. These attacks usually steal senior level employee system privileges, in order to gain unauthorized access to confidential knowledge and valuable intellectual property. Malware used for initial compromise of the systems are sophisticated and may target zero-day vulnerabilities. In this work we utilize common behaviour of malware called ”beacon”, which implies that infected hosts communicate to Command and Control servers at regular intervals that have relatively small time variations. By analysing such beacon activity through passive network monitoring, it is possible to detect potential malware infections. So, we focus on time gaps as indicators of possible C2 activity in targeted enterprise networks. We represent DNS log files as a graph, whose vertices are destination domains and edges are timestamps. Then by using four periodicity detection algorithms for each pair of internal-external communications, we check timestamp sequences to identify the beacon activities. Finally, based on the graph structure, we infer the existence of other infected hosts and malicious domains enrolled in the attack activities.

Keywords: Malware detection, network security, targeted attack.

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