Search results for: Heat index

Authors: Th. Arti Devi, Parthasarthi Choudhury

Abstract:

Extreme rainfall frequency analysis for Meteorological Sub-Division 4 of India was analyzed using L-moments approach. Serial Correlation and Mann Kendall tests were conducted for checking serially independent and stationarity of the observations. The discordancy measure for the sites was conducted to detect the discordant sites. The regional homogeneity was tested by comparing with 500 generated homogeneous regions using a 4 parameter Kappa distribution. The best fit distribution was selected based on Z^DIST statistics and L-moments ratio diagram from the five extreme value distributions GPD, GLO, GEV, P3 and LP3. The LN3 distribution was selected and regional rainfall frequency relationship was established using index-rainfall procedure. A regional mean rainfall relationship was developed using multiple linear regression with latitude and longitude of the sites as variables.

Keywords: L-moments, ZDIST statistics, Serial correlation, Mann Kendall test.

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Authors: Gergely Szilágyi, Péter Pepó

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Our field experiments were set at the RISF Látókép Experimental Farm of the Centre for Agricultural and Applied Economic Sciences of the University of Debrecen, on lime-coated chernozem soil. During our studies, we have investigated two winter wheat varieties (GK Öthalom, Mv Csárdás) of different genotypes. The preceding crops were sunflower and grain maize. We examined wheat leaf area index (LAI) five times during by BBCH scale. We have found that during the different stages of the vegetation period, the LAI values were different depending on the preceding crop, variety and nutrient levels. According to our results, the lowest LAI values were experienced in the control treatment, in the case of both preceding crops. According to our studies we can conclude that crop rotation and fertilizer treatment influenced the studied physiological trait to different extents.

Keywords: Winter wheat, crop rotation, fertilization, genotype, LAI.

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Authors: Tanuj Kanchan, Anadi Gupta, Kewal Krishan

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Human skull is shown to exhibit numerous sexually dimorphic traits. Estimation of sex is a challenging task especially when a part of skull is brought for medicolegal investigation. The present research was planned to evaluate the sexing potential of the dimensions of foramen magnum in forensic identification by craniometric analysis. Length and breadth of the foramen magnum was measured using Vernier calipers and the area of foramen magnum was calculated. The length, breadth, and area of foramen magnum were found to be larger in males than females. Sexual dimorphism index was calculated to estimate the sexing potential of each variable. The study observations are suggestive of the limited utility of the craniometric analysis of foramen magnum during the examination of skull and its parts in estimation of sex.

Keywords: Forensic Anthropology, Skeletal remains, Identification, Sex estimation, Foramen magnum.

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Authors: Ogunsina Babatunde, Aregbesola Omotayo, Adebayo Adewale, Odunlami Johnson

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The physical properties of nine Nigerian staple food flours related to bulk handling and processing were investigated following standard procedures. The results showed that the moisture content, bulk density, angle of repose, water absorption capacity, swelling index, dispersability, pH and wettability of the flours ranged from 9.95 to 11.98%, 0.44 to 0.66 g/cm³, 31.43 to 39.65^o, 198.3 to 291.7 g of water/100 g of sample, 5.53 to 7.63, 60.3 to 73.8%, 4.43 to 6.70, and 11 to 150 s. The particle size analysis of the flour samples indicated significant differences (p<0.05). The least gelation concentration of the flour samples ranged from 6 to 14%. The colour of the flours fell between light and saturated, with the exception of cassava, millet and maize flours which appear dark and dull. The properties of food flours depend largely on the inherent property of the food material and may influence their functional behaviour as food materials.

Keywords: Properties, staple food flours, Nigeria, cereals, tuber, root crops, fruits.

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Authors: M. Siosemarde, F. Kave, E. Pazira, H. Sedghi, S. J. Ghaderi

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Researchers have long had trouble in measurement of Exchangeable Sodium Ratio (ESR) at salt-affected soils. this parameter are often determined using laborious and time consuming laboratory tests, but it may be more appropriate and economical to develop a method which uses a more simple soil salinity index. The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between exchangeable sodium ratio (ESR) and sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) in some salt-affected soils of Khuzestan plain. To this purpose, two experimental areas (S1, S2) of Khuzestan province-IRAN were selected and four treatments with three replications by series of double rings were applied. The treatments were included 25cm, 50cm, 75cm and 100cm water application. The statistical results of the study indicated that in order to predict soil ESR based on soil SAR the linear regression model ESR=0.2048+0.0066 SAR (R2=0.53) & ESR=0.0564+0.0171 SAR (R2=0.76) can be recommended in Pilot S1 and S2 respectively.

Keywords: exchangeable sodium ratio, Khuzestan plain, saltaffectedsoils and sodium adsorption ratio.

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Authors: Tatyana R. Radeva, Ivan S. Yatchev, Dimitar N. Karastoyanov, Nikolay I. Stoimenov, Stanislav D. Gyoshev

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The paper presents coupled electromagnetic and thermal field analysis of busbar system (of rectangular cross-section geometry) submitted to short circuit conditions. The laboratory model was validated against both analytical solution and experimental observations. The considered problem required the computation of the detailed distribution of the power losses and the heat transfer modes. In this electromagnetic and thermal analysis, different definitions of electric busbar heating were considered and compared. The busbar system is a three phase one and consists of aluminum, painted aluminum and copper busbar. The solution to the coupled field problem is obtained using the finite element method and the QuickField™ program. Experiments have been carried out using two different approaches and compared with computed results.

Keywords: Busbar system, coupled problems, finite element method, short-circuit currents.

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Authors: Mohamad Mahdavi

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Most of the real queuing systems include special properties and constraints, which can not be analyzed directly by using the results of solved classical queuing models. Lack of Markov chains features, unexponential patterns and service constraints, are the mentioned conditions. This paper represents an applied general algorithm for analysis and optimizing the queuing systems. The algorithm stages are described through a real case study. It is consisted of an almost completed non-Markov system with limited number of customers and capacities as well as lots of common exception of real queuing networks. Simulation is used for optimizing this system. So introduced stages over the following article include primary modeling, determining queuing system kinds, index defining, statistical analysis and goodness of fit test, validation of model and optimizing methods of system with simulation.

Keywords: Estimation, queuing system, simulation model, probability distribution, non-Markov chain.

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Authors: S. Saadi, S. Benissaad, S. Poncet, Y. Kabar

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In photovoltaic (PV) cells, most of the absorbed solar radiation cannot be converted into electricity. A large amount of solar radiation is converted to heat, which should be dissipated by any cooling techniques. In the present study, the cooling is achieved by inserting triangular ribs in the duct. A comprehensive two-dimensional thermo-fluid model for the effective cooling of PV cells has been developed. It has been first carefully validated against experimental and numerical results available in the literature. A parametric analysis was then carried out about the influence of the number and size of the ribs, wind speed, solar irradiance and inlet fluid velocity on the average solar cell and outlet air temperatures as well as the thermal and electrical efficiencies of the module. Results indicated that the use of triangular ribbed channels is a very effective cooling technique, which significantly reduces the average temperature of the PV cell, especially when increasing the number of ribs.

Keywords: Effective cooling, numerical modeling, photovoltaic cell, triangular ribs.

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Authors: D. Triantakonstantis, D. Stathakis

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Urban areas have been expanded throughout the globe. Monitoring and modelling urban growth have become a necessity for a sustainable urban planning and decision making. Urban prediction models are important tools for analyzing the causes and consequences of urban land use dynamics. The objective of this research paper is to analyze and model the urban change, which has been occurred from 1990 to 2000 using CORINE land cover maps. The model was developed using drivers of urban changes (such as road distance, slope, etc.) under an Artificial Neural Network modelling approach. Validation was achieved using a prediction map for 2006 which was compared with a real map of Urban Atlas of 2006. The accuracy produced a Kappa index of agreement of 0,639 and a value of Cramer's V of 0,648. These encouraging results indicate the importance of the developed urban growth prediction model which using a set of available common biophysical drivers could serve as a management tool for the assessment of urban change.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, CORINE, Urban Atlas, Urban Growth Prediction.

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Authors: R. Leelaruji, V. Knazkins

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This paper proposes a methodology for mitigating the occurrence of cascading failure in stressed power systems. The methodology is essentially based on predicting voltage instability in the power system using a voltage stability index and then devising a corrective action in order to increase the voltage stability margin. The paper starts with a brief description of the cascading failure mechanism which is probable root cause of severe blackouts. Then, the voltage instability indices are introduced in order to evaluate stability limit. The aim of the analysis is to assure that the coordination of protection, by adopting load shedding scheme, capable of enhancing performance of the system after the major location of instability is determined. Finally, the proposed method to generate instability prediction is introduced.

Keywords: Blackouts, cascading failure, voltage stability indices, singular value decomposition, load shedding.

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Authors: Saad Mutashar Abbas, M. A. Hannan, S. A. Samad, A. Hussain

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This paper presented a proposed design for transcutaneous inductive powering links. The design used to transfer power and data to the implanted devices such as implanted Microsystems to stimulate and monitoring the nerves and muscles. The system operated with low band frequency 13.56 MHZ according to industrial- scientific – medical (ISM) band to avoid the tissue heating. For external part, the modulation index is 13 % and the modulation rate 7.3% with data rate 1 Mbit/s assuming Tbit=1us. The system has been designed using 0.35-μm fabricated CMOS technology. The mathematical model is given and the design is simulated using OrCAD P Spice 16.2 software tool and for real-time simulation the electronic workbench MULISIM 11 has been used. The novel circular plane (pancake) coils was simulated using ANSOFT- HFss software.

Keywords: Implanted devices, ASK techniques, Class-E power amplifier, Inductive powering and low-frequency ISM band.

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Authors: Ricardo Merlo

Abstract:

In this paper, we analyzed the different didactic proposals for teaching about the free fall motion of bodies available online. An important aspect was the interpretation of the direction and sense of the acceleration of gravity and of the falling velocity of a body, which is why we found different applications of the Cartesian reference system used and also different graphical presentations of the velocity as a function of time and of the distance traveled vertically by the body in the period of time that it was dropped from a height h0. In this framework, a survey of previous concepts was applied to a voluntary group of first-year university students of an Engineering degree before and after the development of the class of the subject in question. Then, Hake's index (0.52) was determined, which resulted in an average learning gain from the meaningful use of the reference system and the respective graphs of velocity versus time and height versus time.

Keywords: Didactic gain, free–fall, physics teaching, previous knowledge.

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Authors: H. M. Farghally, N. M. Ahmed, H. T. El-Madany, D. M. Atia, F. H. Fahmy

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Energy is required in almost every aspect of human activities and development of any nation in the world. Increasing fossil fuel price, energy security and climate change have important bearings on sustainable development of any nation. The renewable energy technology is considered one of the drastic approaches which taken over the world to reduce the energy problem. The preservation of vegetables by freezing is one of the most important methods of retaining quality in agricultural products over long-term storage periods. Freezing factories show high demand of energy for both heat and electricity; the hybrid Photovoltaic/Thermal (PV/T) systems could be used in order to meet this requirement. This paper presents PV/T system design for freezing factory. Also, the complete mathematical modeling and MATLAB SIMULINK of PV/T collector is introduced. The sensitivity analysis for the manufacturing parameters of PV/T collector is carried out to study their effect on both thermal and electrical efficiency.

Keywords: Renewable energy, Hybrid PV/T system, Sensitivity analysis.

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Authors: Arnab Majumdar, Sanjoy Sadhukhan

Abstract:

Although gun barrel steels are an important variety from defense view point, available literatures are very limited. In the present work, an IF grade Ni-Cr-Mo-V high strength low alloy steel is produced in Electric Earth Furnace-ESR Route. Ingot was hot forged to desired dimension with a reduction ratio of 70-75% followed by homogenization, hardening and tempering treatment. Sample chemistry, NMIR, macro and micro structural analyses were done. Mechanical properties which include tensile, impact, and fracture toughness were studied. Ultrasonic testing was done to identify internal flaws. The existing high strength low alloy Ni-Cr-Mo-V steel shows improved properties in modified processing route and heat treatment schedule in comparison to properties noted earlier for manufacturing of gun barrels. The improvement in properties seems to withstand higher explosive loads with the same amount of steel in gun barrel application.

Keywords: Gun barrel steels, IF grade, physical properties, thermal and mechanical processing, mechanical properties, ultrasonic testing.

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Authors: H. M. Wilhelm, P. O. Fernandes, L. P. Dill, C. Steffens, K. G. Moscon, S. M. Peres, V. Bender, T. Marchesan, J. B. Ferreira Neto

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Deterioration of insulating oil is a natural process that occurs during transformers operation. However, this process can be accelerated by some factors, such as oxygen, high temperatures, metals and, moisture, which rapidly reduce oil insulating capacity and favor transformer faults. Parts of building materials of a transformer can be degraded and yield soluble compounds and insoluble particles that shorten the equipment life. Physicochemical tests, dissolved gas analysis (including propane, propylene and, butane), volatile and furanic compounds determination, besides quantitative and morphological analyses of particulate are proposed in this study in order to correlate transformers building materials degradation with insulating oil characteristics. The present investigation involves tests of medium temperature overheating simulation by means of an electric resistance wrapped with the following materials immersed in mineral insulating oil: test I) copper, tin, lead and, paper (heated at 350-400 °C for 8 h); test II) only copper (at 250 °C for 11 h); and test III) only paper (at 250 °C for 8 h and at 350 °C for 8 h). A different experiment is the simulation of electric arc involving copper, using an electric welding machine at two distinct energy sets (low and high). Analysis results showed that dielectric loss was higher in the sample of test I, higher neutralization index and higher values of hydrogen and hydrocarbons, including propane and butane, were also observed. Test III oil presented higher particle count, in addition, ferrographic analysis revealed contamination with fibers and carbonized paper. However, these particles had little influence on the oil physicochemical parameters (dielectric loss and neutralization index) and on the gas production, which was very low. Test II oil showed high levels of methane, ethane, and propylene, indicating the effect of metal on oil degradation. CO₂ and CO gases were formed in the highest concentration in test III, as expected. Regarding volatile compounds, in test I acetone, benzene and toluene were detected, which are oil oxidation products. Regarding test III, methanol was identified due to cellulose degradation, as expected. Electric arc simulation test showed the highest oil oxidation in presence of copper and at high temperature, since these samples had huge concentration of hydrogen, ethylene, and acetylene. Particle count was also very high, showing the highest release of copper in such conditions. When comparing high and low energy, the first presented more hydrogen, ethylene, and acetylene. This sample had more similar results to test I, pointing out that the generation of different particles can be the cause for faults such as electric arc. Ferrography showed more evident copper and exfoliation particles than in other samples. Therefore, in this study, by using different combined analytical techniques, it was possible to correlate insulating oil characteristics with possible contaminants, which can lead to transformers failure.

Keywords: Ferrography, gas analysis, insulating mineral oil, particle contamination, transformer failures.

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Authors: S. Gao, S. Srirattayawong

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In this study, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model has been developed for studying the effect of surface roughness profile on the EHL problem. The cylinders contact geometry, meshing and calculation of the conservation of mass and momentum equations are carried out using the commercial software packages ICEMCFD and ANSYS Fluent. The user defined functions (UDFs) for density, viscosity and elastic deformation of the cylinders as the functions of pressure and temperature are defined for the CFD model. Three different surface roughness profiles are created and incorporated into the CFD model. It is found that the developed CFD model can predict the characteristics of fluid flow and heat transfer in the EHL problem, including the main parameters such as pressure distribution, minimal film thickness, viscosity, and density changes. The results obtained show that the pressure profile at the center of the contact area directly relates to the roughness amplitude. A rough surface with kurtosis value of more than 3 has greater influence over the fluctuated shape of pressure distribution than in other cases.

Keywords: CFD, EHL, Kurtosis, Surface roughness.

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Authors: Sung-Hun Lee, Yun-Seong Lee, Jin-O Kim

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Reliability Centered Maintenance(RCM) is one of most widely used methods in the modern power system to schedule a maintenance cycle and determine the priority of inspection. In order to apply the RCM method to the Smart Grid, a precedence study for the new structure of rearranged system should be performed due to introduction of additional installation such as renewable and sustainable energy resources, energy storage devices and advanced metering infrastructure. This paper proposes a new method to evaluate the priority of maintenance and inspection of the power system facilities in the Smart Grid using the Risk Priority Number. In order to calculate that risk index, it is required that the reliability block diagram should be analyzed for the Smart Grid system. Finally, the feasible technical method is discussed to estimate the risk potential as part of the RCM procedure.

Keywords: Expert System, FMECA, Fuzzy Theory, Reliability Centered Maintenance, Risk Priority Number

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Authors: Muhammed A. Ahmed, Sidra A. Shaikh

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Global Solar Radiation (H) for Dubai and Sharjah, Latitude 25.25oN, Longitude 55oE and 25.29oN, Longitude 55oE respectively have been studied using sunshine hour data (n) of the areas using various methods. These calculated global solar radiation values are then compared to the measured values presented by NASA. Furthermore, the extraterrestrial (H0), diffuse (Hd) and beam radiation (Hb) are also calculated. The diffuse radiation is calculated using methods proposed by Page and Liu and Jordan (L-J). Diffuse Radiation from the Page method is higher than the L-J method. Moreover, the clearness index (KT) signifies a clear sky almost all year round. Rainy days are hardly a few in a year and limited in the months December to March. The temperature remains between 25oC in winter to 44oC in summer and is desirable for thermal applications of solar energy. From the estimated results, it appears that solar radiation can be utilized very efficiently throughout the year for photovoltaic and thermal applications.

Keywords: Dubai, Sharjah, Global Solar Radiation, Diffuse Radiation

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Authors: D.Toghraie, A.R.Azimian

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Molecular dynamics simulation of annular flow boiling in a nanochannel with 70000 particles is numerically investigated. In this research, an annular flow model is developed to predict the superheated flow boiling heat transfer characteristics in a nanochannel. To characterize the forced annular boiling flow in a nanochannel, an external driving force F ext ranging from 1to12PN (PN= Pico Newton) is applied along the flow direction to inlet fluid particles during the simulation. Based on an annular flow model analysis, it is found that saturation condition and superheat degree have great influences on the liquid-vapor interface. Also, the results show that due to the relatively strong influence of surface tension in small channel, the interface between the liquid film and vapor core is fairly smooth, and the mean velocity along the stream-wise direction does not change anymore.

Keywords: Lennard-Jones Potential, Molecular DynamicsSimulation, Periodic Boundary Conditions (PBC), Non-EquilibriumMolecular Dynamics (NEMD), Annular Flow Boiling

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Authors: X. Mamaqi, J.Miguel, P. Olave

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The aim of this paper is to provide an empirical evidence about the effects that the management of continuous training have on employability (or employment stability) in the Spanish labour market. With this purpose a binary logit model with interaction effect is been used. The dependent variable includes two situations of the active workers: continuous and discontinuous employability. To distinguish between them an Employability Index Stability (ESI) was calculated taking into account two factors: time worked and job security. Various aspects of the continuous training and personal workers data are used as independent variables. The data obtained from a survey of a sample of 918 employed have revealed a relationship between the likelihood of continuous employability and continuous training received. The empirical results support the positive and significant relationship between various aspects of the training provided by firms and employability likelihood of the workers, postulate alike from a theoretical point of view.

Keywords: training management, employability/employmentstability, binary logit model, interaction effect, Spanish marketlabour.

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Authors: Tahereh Talebi, Reza Ghomashchi, Pejman Talemi, Sima Aminorroaya

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A high quality crack-free film of Bi₂Te₃ material has been deposited for the first time using electrophoretic deposition (EPD) and microstructures of various films have been investigated. One of the most important thermoelectric (TE) applications is Bi₂Te₃ to manufacture TE generators (TEG) which can convert waste heat into electricity targeting the global warming issue. However, the high cost of the manufacturing process of TEGs keeps them expensive and out of reach for commercialization. Therefore, utilizing EPD as a simple and cost-effective method will open new opportunities for TEG’s commercialization. This method has been recently used for advanced materials such as microelectronics and has attracted a lot of attention from both scientists and industry. In this study, the effect of media of suspensions has been investigated on the quality of the deposited films as well as their microstructure. In summary, finding an appropriate suspension is a critical step for a successful EPD process and has an important effect on both the film’s quality and its future properties.

Keywords: Bi2Te3, electrical conductivity, electrophoretic deposition, thermoelectric materials, thick films.

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Authors: Behrouzinia P., Irani R. A., Saidi M.H.

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In this paper, a one-dimensional numerical approach is used to study the effect of applying electrohydrodynamics on the temperature and species mass fraction profiles along the microcombustor. Premixed mixture is H2-Air with a multi-step chemistry (9 species and 19 reactions). In the micro-scale combustion because of the increasing ratio of area-to-volume, thermal and radical quenching mechanisms are important. Also, there is a significant heat loss from the combustor walls. By inserting a number of electrodes into micro-combustor and applying high voltage to them corona discharge occurs. This leads in moving of induced ions toward natural molecules and colliding with them. So this phenomenon causes the movement of the molecules and reattaches the flow to the walls. It increases the velocity near the walls that reduces the wall boundary layer. Consequently, applying electrohydrodynamics mechanism can enhance the temperature profile in the microcombustor. Ultimately, it prevents the flame quenching in microcombustor.

Keywords: micro-combustor, electrohydrodynamics, temperature profile, wall quenching

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Authors: Mahmoud M. Tash, S. Alkahtani

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The present study was undertaken to investigate the effect of pre-aging and aging parameters (time and temperature) on the mechanical properties of Al-Mg-Zn (7075) alloys. Ultimate tensile strength, 0.5% offset yield strength and % elongation measurements were carried out on specimens prepared from cast and heat treated 7075 alloys. Aging treatments were carried out for the as solution treated (SHT) specimens (after quenching in warm water). The specimens were aged at different conditions; Natural aging was carried out at room temperature for different periods of time. Double aging was performed for SHT conditions (pre-aged at different time and temperature followed by high temperature aging). Ultimate tensile strength, yield strength and % elongation as a function of different pre-aging and aging parameters are analyzed to acquire an understanding of the effects of these variables and their interactions on the mechanical properties of Be-treated 7075 alloys.

Keywords: Duplex Aging Treatment, Mechanical Properties, Al-Mg-Zn (7075) alloys.

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Authors: Abhay Kumar Singh

Abstract:

Structural and UV/Visible optical properties can be useful to describe a material for the CIGS solar cell active layer, therefore, this work demonstrates the properties like surface morphology, X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) bonding energy (EB) core level spectra, UV/Visible absorption spectra, refractive index (n), optical energy band (Eg), reflection spectra for the Cu25 (In16Ga9) Se40Te10 (CIGST-1) and Cu20 (In14Ga9) Se45Te12 (CIGST-2) chalcogenide compositions. Materials have been exhibited homogenous surface morphologies, broading /-or diffusion of bonding energy peaks relative elemental values and a high UV/Visible absorption tendency in the wave length range 400 nm- 850 nm range with the optical energy band gaps 1.37 and 1.42 respectively. Subsequently, UV/Visible reflectivity property in the wave length range 250 nm to 320 nm for these materials has also been discussed.

Keywords: Chalcogen, Optical energy band gap, UV/Visible spectra, XPS spectra.

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Authors: Elena Lyakso, Olga Frolova, Yuri Matveev

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The aim of the study is to determine the acoustic features of voice and speech of children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) as a possible additional diagnostic criterion. The participants in the study were 95 children with ASD aged 5-16 years, 150 typically development (TD) children, and 103 adults – listening to children’s speech samples. Three types of experimental methods for speech analysis were performed: spectrographic, perceptual by listeners, and automatic recognition. In the speech of children with ASD, the pitch values, pitch range, values of frequency and intensity of the third formant (emotional) leading to the “atypical” spectrogram of vowels are higher than corresponding parameters in the speech of TD children. High values of vowel articulation index (VAI) are specific for ASD children’s speech signals. These acoustic features can be considered as diagnostic marker of autism. The ability of humans and automatic recognition of the psychoneurological state of children via their speech is determined.

Keywords: Autism spectrum disorders, biomarker of autism, child speech, voice features.

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Authors: Sulata Maharana, B Biswas, Adity Ganguly, Ashok Kumar

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In this paper, the requirement for Coke quality prediction, its role in Blast furnaces, and the model output is explained. By applying method of Artificial Neural Networking (ANN) using back propagation (BP) algorithm, prediction model has been developed to predict CSR. Important blast furnace functions such as permeability, heat exchanging, melting, and reducing capacity are mostly connected to coke quality. Coke quality is further dependent upon coal characterization and coke making process parameters. The ANN model developed is a useful tool for process experts to adjust the control parameters in case of coke quality deviations. The model also makes it possible to predict CSR for new coal blends which are yet to be used in Coke Plant. Input data to the model was structured into 3 modules, for tenure of past 2 years and the incremental models thus developed assists in identifying the group causing the deviation of CSR.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, backpropagation, CokeStrength after Reaction, Multilayer Perceptron.

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Authors: Nelson J. Cossa, Narayanan S. Potty, Mohd Shahir Liew, Arazi B. Idrus

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The oil and gas industry has moved towards Load and Resistance Factor Design through API RP2A - LRFD and the recently published international standard, ISO-19902, for design of fixed steel offshore structures. The ISO 19902 is intended to provide a harmonized design practice that offers a balanced structural fitness for the purpose, economy and safety. As part of an ongoing work, the reliability analysis of tubular joints of the jacket structure has been carried out to calibrate the load and resistance factors for the design of offshore platforms in Malaysia, as proposed in the ISO. Probabilistic models have been established for the load effects (wave, wind and current) and the tubular joints strengths. In this study the First Order Reliability Method (FORM), coded in MATLAB Software has been employed to evaluate the reliability index of the typical joints, designed using API RP2A - WSD and ISO 19902.

Keywords: FORM, Reliability Analysis, Tubular Joints

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Authors: Xinjian Kou, Linlin Li, Yongju Zhou, Jimian Song

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We introduce the redundancy matrix that expresses clearly the geometrical/topological configuration of the structure. With the matrix, the redundancy of the structure is resolved into redundant components and assigned to each member or rigid joint. The values of the diagonal elements in the matrix indicates the importance of the corresponding members or rigid joints, and the geometrically correlations can be shown with the non-diagonal elements. If a member or rigid joint failures, reassignment of the redundant components can be calculated with the recursive method given in the paper. By combining the indexes of reliability and redundancy components, we define an index concerning the structural robustness. To further explain the properties of the redundancy matrix, we cited several examples of statically indeterminate structures, including two trusses and a rigid frame. With the examples, some simple results and the properties of the matrix are discussed. The examples also illustrate that the redundancy matrix and the relevant concepts are valuable in structural safety analysis.

Keywords: Structural robustness, structural reliability, redundancy component, redundancy matrix.

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Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

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 A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: Forecasting model, Steel demand uncertainty, Hierarchical Bayesian framework, Exponential smoothing method.

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Authors: Amir Ghasemlouei, Alireza Khalaj

Abstract:

Breast cancer is in the top rate of cancer. We analyzed the prevalence of obesity and its association with breast cancer and finally we reviewed 25 article that 320 patient and 320 control which enrolled to our study. The distribution of breast cancer patients and controls with respect to their anthropometric indices in patients with higher weight, which was statistically significant (60.2 ± 10.2 kg) compared with control group (56.1 ± 11.3 kg). The body mass index of patients was (26.06+/-3.42) and significantly higher than the control group (24.1+/-1.7). Obesity leads to increased levels of adipose tissue in the body that can be stored toxins and carcinogens to produce a continuous supply. Due to the high level of fat and the role of estrogen in a woman which is endogenous estrogen of the tumor and regulates the activities of growth steroids, obesity has confirmed as a risk factor for breast cancer. Our study and other studies have shown that obesity is a risk factor for breast cancer. And it can be prevented with a weight loss intervention for breast cancer in the future.

Keywords: Breast cancer, review study, obesity, overweight.

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