Search results for: change point estimation

Authors: Biao Qin, Jin Huang

Abstract:

In this paper, together with some improved Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and effective mathematical techniques, several sufficient conditions are derived to guarantee the error system is globally asymptotically stable with H∞ performance, in which both the time-delay and its time variation can be fully considered. In order to get less conservative results of the state estimation condition, zero equalities and reciprocally convex approach are employed. The estimator gain matrix can be obtained in terms of the solution to linear matrix inequalities. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the usefulness and effectiveness of the obtained results.

Keywords: H∞ performance, Neural networks, State estimation.

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Authors: Khaled M. EL-Naggar

Abstract:

This paper presents a new method for estimating the mean curve of impulse voltage waveforms that are recorded during impulse tests. In practice, these waveforms are distorted by noise, oscillations and overshoot. The problem is formulated as an estimation problem. Estimation of the current signal parameters is achieved using a fast and accurate technique. The method is based on discrete dynamic filtering algorithm (DDF). The main advantage of the proposed technique is its ability in producing the estimates in a very short time and at a very high degree of accuracy. The algorithm uses sets of digital samples of the recorded impulse waveform. The proposed technique has been tested using simulated data of practical waveforms. Effects of number of samples and data window size are studied. Results are reported and discussed.

Keywords: Digital Filtering, Estimation, Impulse wave, Stochastic filtering.

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Authors: Do Hyeung Kim, Dae Hee Seo, Byung Doo Kim, Byung Gil Lee

Abstract:

As many recent researches being implemented in aviation and maritime aspects, strong doubts have been raised concerning the reliability of the estimation of collision risk. It is shown that using position and velocity of objects can lead to imprecise results. In this paper, therefore, a new approach to the estimation of collision risks using pose and shape of objects is proposed. Simulation results are presented validating the accuracy of the new criterion to adapt to collision risk algorithm based on fuzzy logic.

Keywords: Collision risk, Pose and shape, Fuzzy logic.

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Authors: Khaled M. EL-Naggar

Abstract:

This paper presents a fast and efficient on-line technique for estimating impedance of unbalanced loads in power systems. The proposed technique is an application of a discrete timedynamic filter based on stochastic estimation theory which is suitable for estimating parameters in noisy environment. The algorithm uses sets of digital samples of the distorted voltage and current waveforms of the non-linear load to estimate the harmonic contents of these two signal. The non-linear load impedance is then calculated from these contents. The method is tested using practical data. Results are reported and compared with those obtained using the conventional least error squares technique. In addition to the very accurate results obtained, the method can detect and reject bad measurements. This can be considered as a very important advantage over the conventional static estimation methods such as the least error square method.

Keywords: Estimation, identification, Harmonics, Dynamic Filter.

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Authors: M. R. AlRashidi, K. M. El-Naggar, M. F. AlHajri

Abstract:

A new technique based on Pattern search optimization is proposed for estimating different solar cell parameters in this paper. The estimated parameters are the generated photocurrent, saturation current, series resistance, shunt resistance, and ideality factor. The proposed approach is tested and validated using double diode model to show its potential. Performance of the developed approach is quite interesting which signifies its potential as a promising estimation tool.

Keywords: Solar Cell, Parameter Estimation, Pattern Search.

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Authors: Ling-fei Xu, Qi Zhao, Yan-ru Chen, Mu-chun Zhou, Meng Zhang, Shi-xue Xu

Abstract:

SVM ( Support Vector Machine ) is a new method in the artificial neural network ( ANN ). In the steel making, how to use computer to predict the end point of BOF accuracy is a great problem. A lot of method and theory have been claimed, but most of the results is not satisfied. Now the hot topic in the BOF end point predicting is to use optical way the predict the end point in the BOF. And we found that there exist some regular in the characteristic curve of the flame from the mouse of pudding. And we can use SVM to predict end point of the BOF, just single spectrum intensity should be required as the input parameter. Moreover, its compatibility for the input space is better than the BP network.

Keywords: SVM, predict, BOF, single spectrum intensity.

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Authors: Sara A.Yones, Ahmed S. Moussa

Abstract:

Quantitative measurements of tumor in general and tumor volume in particular, become more realistic with the use of Magnetic Resonance imaging, especially when the tumor morphological changes become irregular and difficult to assess by clinical examination. However, tumor volume estimation strongly depends on the image segmentation, which is fuzzy by nature. In this paper a fuzzy approach is presented for tumor volume segmentation based on the fuzzy connectedness algorithm. The fuzzy affinity matrix resulting from segmentation is then used to estimate a fuzzy volume based on a certainty parameter, an Alpha Cut, defined by the user. The proposed method was shown to highly affect treatment decisions. A statistical analysis was performed in this study to validate the results based on a manual method for volume estimation and the importance of using the Alpha Cut is further explained.

Keywords: Alpha Cut, Fuzzy Connectedness, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Tumor volume estimation.

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Authors: Tomohiro Ando, Satoshi Yamashita

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to propose a statistical modeling method which enables simultaneous term structure estimation of the risk-free interest rate, hazard and loss given default, incorporating the characteristics of the bond issuing company such as credit rating and financial information. A reduced form model is used for this purpose. Statistical techniques such as spline estimation and Bayesian information criterion are employed for parameter estimation and model selection. An empirical analysis is conducted using the information on the Japanese bond market data. Results of the empirical analysis confirm the usefulness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Empirical Bayes, Hazard term structure, Loss given default.

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Authors: Oğuzhan Urhan

Abstract:

In this paper, an improved motion estimation (ME) approach based on weighted constrained one-bit transform is proposed for block-based ME employed in video encoders. Binary ME approaches utilize low bit-depth representation of the original image frames with a Boolean exclusive-OR based hardware efficient matching criterion to decrease computational burden of the ME stage. Weighted constrained one-bit transform (WC‑1BT) based approach improves the performance of conventional C-1BT based ME employing 2-bit depth constraint mask instead of a 1-bit depth mask. In this work, the range of constraint mask is further extended to increase ME performance of WC-1BT approach. Experiments reveal that the proposed method provides better ME accuracy compared existing similar ME methods in the literature.

Keywords: Fast motion estimation, low-complexity motion estimation, video coding.

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Authors: Sangbum Park, Youngjoon Han

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This paper proposes a balance control scheme for a biped robot to trace an arbitrary path using image information. While moving, it estimates the zero moment point(ZMP) of the biped robot in the next step using a Kalman filter and renders an appropriate balanced pose of the robot. The ZMP can be calculated from the robot's pose, which is measured from the reference object image acquired by a CCD camera on the robot's head. For simplifying the kinematical model, the coordinates systems of individual joints of each leg are aligned and the robot motion is approximated as an inverted pendulum so that a simple linear dynamics, 3D-LIPM(3D-Linear Inverted Pendulum Mode) can be applied. The efficiency of the proposed algorithm has been proven by the experiments performed on unknown trajectory.

Keywords: Biped robot, Zero moment point, Balance control, Kalman filter.

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Authors: Mustafa Abdalla, Khaled A. Madi, Rajab Farhat

Abstract:

An array antenna system with innovative signal processing can improve the resolution of a source direction of arrival (DoA) estimation. High resolution techniques take the advantage of array antenna structures to better process the incoming waves. They also have the capability to identify the direction of multiple targets. This paper investigates performance of the DOA estimation algorithm namely; Capon and MUSIC on the uniform linear array (ULA). The simulation results show that in Capon and MUSIC algorithm the resolution of the DOA techniques improves as number of snapshots, number of array elements, signal-to-noise ratio and separation angle between the two sources θ increases.

Keywords: Antenna array, Capon, MUSIC, Direction-of-arrival estimation, signal processing, uniform linear arrays.

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Authors: Saima Ali, Pathamanathan Rajeev, Imteaz A. Monzur

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In this paper, a brief review of the corrosion mechanism in buried pipe and modes of failure is provided together with the available corrosion models. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis is performed to understand the influence of corrosion model parameters on the remaining life estimation. Further, the probabilistic analysis is performed to propagate the uncertainty in the corrosion model on the estimation of the renaming life of the pipe. Finally, the comparison among the corrosion models on the basis of the remaining life estimation will be provided to improve the renewal plan.

Keywords: Corrosion, pit depth, sensitivity analysis, exposure period.

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Authors: Jihane Abdessadak, Hicham Achelhi, Kamal Reklaoui

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For any company or organization, change must be natural and binding in order to evolve its business, protect its durability and remain competitive. "Adapt or disappear". But how often managers, leaders or employees develop astonishing ideas that could improve several aspects of the organization and the feedback is less that encouraging and people give unrealistic judgments just to escape change. In this paper, we are going to discuss what we do know about change and resistance to change and what we can do to tame this phenomenon and, above all, the main steps that can follow an idea man in the delicate and decisive implementation of innovations.

Keywords: Innovation, change, resistance to change/innovation, barriers to innovation, levers of innovation.

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Authors: Cheng Zeng, George Michailidis, Hitoshi Iyatomi, Leo L Duan

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The conditional density characterizes the distribution of a response variable y given other predictor x, and plays a key role in many statistical tasks, including classification and outlier detection. Although there has been abundant work on the problem of Conditional Density Estimation (CDE) for a low-dimensional response in the presence of a high-dimensional predictor, little work has been done for a high-dimensional response such as images. The promising performance of normalizing flow (NF) neural networks in unconditional density estimation acts a motivating starting point. In this work, we extend NF neural networks when external x is present. Specifically, they use the NF to parameterize a one-to-one transform between a high-dimensional y and a latent z that comprises two components [zP , zN]. The zP component is a low-dimensional subvector obtained from the posterior distribution of an elementary predictive model for x, such as logistic/linear regression. The zN component is a high-dimensional independent Gaussian vector, which explains the variations in y not or less related to x. Unlike existing CDE methods, the proposed approach, coined Augmented Posterior CDE (AP-CDE), only requires a simple modification on the common normalizing flow framework, while significantly improving the interpretation of the latent component, since zP represents a supervised dimension reduction. In image analytics applications, AP-CDE shows good separation of x-related variations due to factors such as lighting condition and subject id, from the other random variations. Further, the experiments show that an unconditional NF neural network, based on an unsupervised model of z, such as Gaussian mixture, fails to generate interpretable results.

Keywords: Conditional density estimation, image generation, normalizing flow, supervised dimension reduction.

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Authors: Jin Zhang, Wing Lon Ng

Abstract:

In recent years, copulas have become very popular in financial research and actuarial science as they are more flexible in modelling the co-movements and relationships of risk factors as compared to the conventional linear correlation coefficient by Pearson. However, a precise estimation of the copula parameters is vital in order to correctly capture the (possibly nonlinear) dependence structure and joint tail events. In this study, we employ two optimization heuristics, namely Differential Evolution and Threshold Accepting to tackle the parameter estimation of multivariate t distribution models in the EML approach. Since the evolutionary optimizer does not rely on gradient search, the EML approach can be applied to estimation of more complicated copula models such as high-dimensional copulas. Our experimental study shows that the proposed method provides more robust and more accurate estimates as compared to the IFM approach.

Keywords: Copula Models, Student t Copula, Parameter Inference, Differential Evolution, Threshold Accepting.

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Authors: Murat Ayyıldız, Oya Kalıpsız, Sırma Yavuz

Abstract:

Software project effort estimation is frequently seen as complex and expensive for individual software engineers. Software production is in a crisis. It suffers from excessive costs. Software production is often out of control. It has been suggested that software production is out of control because we do not measure. You cannot control what you cannot measure. During last decade, a number of researches on cost estimation have been conducted. The metric-set selection has a vital role in software cost estimation studies; its importance has been ignored especially in neural network based studies. In this study we have explored the reasons of those disappointing results and implemented different neural network models using augmented new metrics. The results obtained are compared with previous studies using traditional metrics. To be able to make comparisons, two types of data have been used. The first part of the data is taken from the Constructive Cost Model (COCOMO'81) which is commonly used in previous studies and the second part is collected according to new metrics in a leading international company in Turkey. The accuracy of the selected metrics and the data samples are verified using statistical techniques. The model presented here is based on Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP). Another difficulty associated with the cost estimation studies is the fact that the data collection requires time and care. To make a more thorough use of the samples collected, k-fold, cross validation method is also implemented. It is concluded that, as long as an accurate and quantifiable set of metrics are defined and measured correctly, neural networks can be applied in software cost estimation studies with success

Keywords: Software Metrics, Software Cost Estimation, Neural Network.

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Authors: Yohei Saika, Hiroki Sakaematsu, Shota Akiyama

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We investigated statistical performance of Bayesian inference using maximum entropy and MAP estimation for several models which approximated wave-fronts in remote sensing using SAR interferometry. Using Monte Carlo simulation for a set of wave-fronts generated by assumed true prior, we found that the method of maximum entropy realized the optimal performance around the Bayes-optimal conditions by using model of the true prior and the likelihood representing optical measurement due to the interferometer. Also, we found that the MAP estimation regarded as a deterministic limit of maximum entropy almost achieved the same performance as the Bayes-optimal solution for the set of wave-fronts. Then, we clarified that the MAP estimation perfectly carried out phase unwrapping without using prior information, and also that the MAP estimation realized accurate phase unwrapping using conjugate gradient (CG) method, if we assumed the model of the true prior appropriately.

Keywords: Bayesian inference using maximum entropy, MAP estimation using conjugate gradient method, SAR interferometry.

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Authors: Jaswinder Kaur, Satwinder Singh, Karanjeet Singh Kahlon

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Accurate software cost estimates are critical to both developers and customers. They can be used for generating request for proposals, contract negotiations, scheduling, monitoring and control. The exact relationship between the attributes of the effort estimation is difficult to establish. A neural network is good at discovering relationships and pattern in the data. So, in this paper a comparative analysis among existing Halstead Model, Walston-Felix Model, Bailey-Basili Model, Doty Model and Neural Network Based Model is performed. Neural Network has outperformed the other considered models. Hence, we proposed Neural Network system as a soft computing approach to model the effort estimation of the software systems.

Keywords: Effort Estimation, Neural Network, Halstead Model, Walston-Felix Model, Bailey-Basili Model, Doty Model.

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Authors: J. Sulaiman, M. Othman, M. K. Hasan

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Recently, the findings on the MEG iterative scheme has demonstrated to accelerate the convergence rate in solving any system of linear equations generated by using approximation equations of boundary value problems. Based on the same scheme, the aim of this paper is to investigate the capability of a family of four-point block iterative methods with a weighted parameter, ω such as the 4 Point-EGSOR, 4 Point-EDGSOR, and 4 Point-MEGSOR in solving two-dimensional elliptic partial differential equations by using the second-order finite difference approximation. In fact, the formulation and implementation of three four-point block iterative methods are also presented. Finally, the experimental results show that the Four Point MEGSOR iterative scheme is superior as compared with the existing four point block schemes.

Keywords: MEG iteration, second-order finite difference, weighted parameter.

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Authors: Wajeeha A. Qazi, Mohammed-Hasham Azam, Umais A. Mehmood, Ghithaa A. Al-Mufragi, Noor-Alhuda Alrawahi, Mohammed F. M. Abushammala

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Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) disposed in landfill sites decompose under anaerobic conditions and produce gases which mainly contain carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄). Methane has the potential of causing global warming 25 times more than CO₂, and can potentially affect human life and environment. Thus, this research aims to determine MSW generation and the annual CH₄ emissions from the generated waste in Oman over the years 1971-2030. The estimation of total waste generation was performed using existing models, while the CH₄ emissions estimation was performed using the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) default method. It is found that total MSW generation in Oman might be reached 3,089 Gg in the year 2030, which approximately produced 85 Gg of CH₄ emissions in the year 2030.

Keywords: Methane, emissions, landfills, solid waste.

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Authors: Vahid R. Asghari, Mehrdad Ardebilipour

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In the context of spectrum surveillance, a new method to recover the code of spread spectrum signal is presented, while the receiver has no knowledge of the transmitter-s spreading sequence. In our previous paper, we used Genetic algorithm (GA), to recover spreading code. Although genetic algorithms (GAs) are well known for their robustness in solving complex optimization problems, but nonetheless, by increasing the length of the code, we will often lead to an unacceptable slow convergence speed. To solve this problem we introduce Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) into code estimation in spread spectrum communication system. In searching process for code estimation, the PSO algorithm has the merits of rapid convergence to the global optimum, without being trapped in local suboptimum, and good robustness to noise. In this paper we describe how to implement PSO as a component of a searching algorithm in code estimation. Swarm intelligence boasts a number of advantages due to the use of mobile agents. Some of them are: Scalability, Fault tolerance, Adaptation, Speed, Modularity, Autonomy, and Parallelism. These properties make swarm intelligence very attractive for spread spectrum code estimation. They also make swarm intelligence suitable for a variety of other kinds of channels. Our results compare between swarm-based algorithms and Genetic algorithms, and also show PSO algorithm performance in code estimation process.

Keywords: Code estimation, Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO), Spread spectrum.

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Authors: Ali Beydoun, Hamzé H. Alaeddine

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One of the main challenges in MIMO-OFDM system to achieve the expected performances in terms of data rate and robustness against multi-path fading channels is the channel estimation. Several methods were proposed in the literature based on either least square (LS) or minimum mean squared error (MMSE) estimators. These methods present high implementation complexity as they require the inversion of large matrices. In order to overcome this problem and to reduce the complexity, this paper presents a solution that benefits from the use of the STBC encoder and transforms the channel estimation process into a set of simple linear operations. The proposed method is evaluated via simulation in AWGN-Rayleigh fading channel. Simulation results show a maximum reduction of 6.85% of the bit error rate (BER) compared to the one obtained with the ideal case where the receiver has a perfect knowledge of the channel.

Keywords: Channel estimation, MIMO, OFDM, STBC, CAZAC sequence.

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Authors: Ahmed N. H. Alnuaimy, Mahamod Ismail, Mohd. A. M. Ali, Kasmiran Jumari, Ayman A. El-Saleh

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This paper presents a new algorithm for the channel estimation of the OFDM system based on a pilot signal for the new generation of high data rate communication systems. In orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) systems over fast-varying fading channels, channel estimation and tracking is generally carried out by transmitting known pilot symbols in given positions of the frequency-time grid. In this paper, we propose to derive an improved algorithm based on the calculation of the mean and the variance of the adjacent pilot signals for a specific distribution of the pilot signals in the OFDM frequency-time grid then calculating of the entire unknown channel coefficients from the equation of the mean and the variance. Simulation results shows that the performance of the OFDM system increase as the length of the channel increase where the accuracy of the estimated channel will be increased using this low complexity algorithm, also the number of the pilot signal needed to be inserted in the OFDM signal will be reduced which lead to increase in the throughput of the signal over the OFDM system in compared with other type of the distribution such as Comb type and Block type channel estimation.

Keywords: Channel estimation, orthogonal frequency divisionmultiplexing (OFDM), comb type channel estimation, block typechannel estimation.

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Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

Abstract:

Zero inflated Strict Arcsine model is a newly developed model which is found to be appropriate in modeling overdispersed count data. In this study, maximum likelihood estimation method is used in estimating the parameters for zero inflated strict arcsine model. Bootstrapping is then employed to compute the confidence intervals for the estimated parameters.

Keywords: overdispersed count data, maximum likelihood estimation, simulated annealing, BCa confidence intervals.

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Authors: K.Sedhuraman, S.Himavathi, A.Muthuramalingam

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The performance of sensor-less controlled induction motor drive depends on the accuracy of the estimated speed. Conventional estimation techniques being mathematically complex require more execution time resulting in poor dynamic response. The nonlinear mapping capability and powerful learning algorithms of neural network provides a promising alternative for on-line speed estimation. The on-line speed estimator requires the NN model to be accurate, simpler in design, structurally compact and computationally less complex to ensure faster execution and effective control in real time implementation. This in turn to a large extent depends on the type of Neural Architecture. This paper investigates three types of neural architectures for on-line speed estimation and their performance is compared in terms of accuracy, structural compactness, computational complexity and execution time. The suitable neural architecture for on-line speed estimation is identified and the promising results obtained are presented.

Keywords: Sensorless IM drives, rotor speed estimators, artificial neural network, feed- forward architecture, single neuron cascaded architecture.

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Authors: Attapong T., Hong-Ming Ku, Nakarin M., Narin L., Alisa L, Jirut W.

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The quantum mechanics simulation was applied for calculating the interaction force between 2 molecules based on atomic level. For the simple extractive distillation system, it is ternary components consisting of 2 closed boiling point components (A,lower boiling point and B, higher boiling point) and solvent (S). The quantum mechanics simulation was used to calculate the intermolecular force (interaction force) between the closed boiling point components and solvents consisting of intermolecular between A-S and B-S. The requirement of the promising solvent for extractive distillation is that solvent (S) has to form stronger intermolecular force with only one component than the other component (A or B). In this study, the systems of aromatic-aromatic, aromatic-cycloparaffin, and paraffindiolefin systems were selected as the demonstration for solvent selection. This study defined new term using for screening the solvents called relative interaction force which is calculated from the quantum mechanics simulation. The results showed that relative interaction force gave the good agreement with the literature data (relative volatilities from the experiment). The reasons are discussed. Finally, this study suggests that quantum mechanics results can improve the relative volatility estimation for screening the solvents leading to reduce time and money consuming

Keywords: Extractive distillation, Interaction force, Quamtum mechanic, Relative volatility, Solvent extraction.

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Authors: Aditya Pratap Singh, Pradeep Tomar

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Software reusability is an essential characteristic of Component-Based Software (CBS). The component reusability is an important assess for the effective reuse of components in CBS. The attributes of reusability proposed by various researchers are studied and four of them are identified as potential factors affecting reusability. This paper proposes metric for reusability estimation of black-box software component along with metrics for Interface Complexity, Understandability, Customizability and Reliability. An experiment is performed for estimation of reusability through a case study on a sample web application using a real world component.

Keywords: Component-based software, component reusability, customizability, interface complexity, reliability, understandability.

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Authors: Amir Rastegarnia, Mohammad Ali Tinati, Azam Khalili

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In this paper we consider the problem of distributed adaptive estimation in wireless sensor networks for two different observation noise conditions. In the first case, we assume that there are some sensors with high observation noise variance (noisy sensors) in the network. In the second case, different variance for observation noise is assumed among the sensors which is more close to real scenario. In both cases, an initial estimate of each sensor-s observation noise is obtained. For the first case, we show that when there are such sensors in the network, the performance of conventional distributed adaptive estimation algorithms such as incremental distributed least mean square (IDLMS) algorithm drastically decreases. In addition, detecting and ignoring these sensors leads to a better performance in a sense of estimation. In the next step, we propose a simple algorithm to detect theses noisy sensors and modify the IDLMS algorithm to deal with noisy sensors. For the second case, we propose a new algorithm in which the step-size parameter is adjusted for each sensor according to its observation noise variance. As the simulation results show, the proposed methods outperforms the IDLMS algorithm in the same condition.

Keywords: Distributes estimation, sensor networks, adaptive filter, IDLMS.

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Authors: Bobby Anak John, Zamri Noranai, Md. Norrizam Mohmad Jaat, Hamidon Salleh, Mohammad Zainal Md Yusof

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Air conditioning is mainly use as human comfort cooling medium. It use more in high temperatures are country such as Malaysia. Proper estimation of cooling load will archive ideal temperature. Without proper estimation can lead to over estimation or under estimation. The ideal temperature should be comfort enough. This study is to develop a program to calculate an ideal cooling load demand, which is match with heat gain. Through this study, it is easy to calculate cooling load estimation. Objective of this study are to develop user-friendly and easy excess cooling load program. This is to insure the cooling load can be estimate by any of the individual rather than them using rule-of-thumb. Developed software is carryout by using Matlab-GUI. These developments are only valid for common building in Malaysia only. An office building was select as case study to verify the applicable and accuracy of develop software. In conclusion, the main objective has successfully where developed software is user friendly and easily to estimate cooling load demand.

Keywords: Cooling Load, Heat Gain, Building and GUI.

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Authors: Abdelouahab Errida, Bouchra Lotfi, Elalami Semma

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In this paper, we try to address the topic of multiple change management by adopting an engineered research methodology, conducted within a Moroccan company during its implementation of several change projects that aim at improving its supply chain management performance. Firstly, we present the key concepts related to our research, namely change management, multiproject management and supply chain management. Then, we try to assess how the change management and multi-project management are applied in this company. Finally, we try to propose an approach that will help managers in dealing with multiple change projects. This approach proposes to integrate change management, project management and multi-project management for managing change projects according to three organizational levels: executive level, project portfolio level and change project level.

Keywords: Change management, multi-project management, project management, change portfolio, supply chain management.

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