Search results for: Management by Results
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 15248

Search results for: Management by Results

518 Comparison of Statins Dose Intensity on HbA1c Control in Outpatients with Type 2 Diabetes: A Prospective Cohort Study

Authors: Mohamed A. Hammad, Dzul Azri Mohamed Noor, Syed Azhar Syed Sulaiman, Ahmed A. Khamis, Abeer Kharshid, Nor Azizah Aziz

Abstract:

The effect of statins dose intensity (SDI) on glycemic control in patients with existing diabetes is unclear. Also, there are many contradictory findings were reported in the literature; thus, it is limiting the possibility to draw conclusions. This project was designed to compare the effect of SDI on glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c%) control in outpatients with Type 2 diabetes in the endocrine clinic at Hospital Pulau Pinang, Malaysia, between July 2015 and August 2016. A prospective cohort study was conducted, where records of 345 patients with Type 2 diabetes (Moderate-SDI group 289 patients and high-SDI cohort 56 patients) were reviewed to identify demographics and laboratory tests. The target of glycemic control (HbA1c < 7% for patient < 65 years, and < 8% for patient ≥ 65 years) was estimated, and the results were presented as descriptive statistics. From 289 moderate-SDI cohorts with a mean age of 57.3 ± 12.4 years, only 86 (29.8%) cases were shown to have controlled glycemia, while there were 203 (70.2%) cases with uncontrolled glycemia with confidence interval (CI) of 95% (6.2–10.8). On the other hand, the high-SDI group of 56 patients with Type 2 diabetes with a mean age 57.7±12.4 years is distributed among 11 (19.6%) patients with controlled diabetes, and 45 (80.4%) of them had uncontrolled glycemia, CI: 95% (7.1–11.9). The study has demonstrated that the relative risk (RR) of uncontrolled glycemia in patients with Type 2 diabetes that used high-SDI is 1.15, and the excessive relative risk (ERR) is 15%. The absolute risk (AR) is 10.2%, and the number needed to harm (NNH) is 10. Outpatients with Type 2 diabetes who use high-SDI of statin have a higher risk of uncontrolled glycemia than outpatients who had been treated with a moderate-SDI.

Keywords: Cohort study, diabetes control, dose intensity, HbA1c, Malaysia, statin, Type 2 diabetes mellitus, uncontrolled glycemia.

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517 Studies on the Characterization and Machinability of Duplex Stainless Steel 2205 during Dry Turning

Authors: Gaurav D. Sonawane, Vikas G. Sargade

Abstract:

The present investigation is a study of the effect of advanced Physical Vapor Deposition (PVD) coatings on cutting temperature residual stresses and surface roughness during Duplex Stainless Steel (DSS) 2205 turning. Austenite stabilizers like nickel, manganese, and molybdenum reduced the cost of DSS. Surface Integrity (SI) plays an important role in determining corrosion resistance and fatigue life. Resistance to various types of corrosion makes DSS suitable for applications with critical environments like Heat exchangers, Desalination plants, Seawater pipes and Marine components. However, lower thermal conductivity, poor chip control and non-uniform tool wear make DSS very difficult to machine. Cemented carbide tools (M grade) were used to turn DSS in a dry environment. AlTiN and AlTiCrN coatings were deposited using advanced PVD High Pulse Impulse Magnetron Sputtering (HiPIMS) technique. Experiments were conducted with cutting speed of 100 m/min, 140 m/min and 180 m/min. A constant feed and depth of cut of 0.18 mm/rev and 0.8 mm were used, respectively. AlTiCrN coated tools followed by AlTiN coated tools outperformed uncoated tools due to properties like lower thermal conductivity, higher adhesion strength and hardness. Residual stresses were found to be compressive for all the tools used for dry turning, increasing the fatigue life of the machined component. Higher cutting temperatures were observed for coated tools due to its lower thermal conductivity, which results in very less tool wear than uncoated tools. Surface roughness with uncoated tools was found to be three times higher than coated tools due to lower coefficient of friction of coating used.

Keywords: Cutting temperatures, DSS2205, dry turning, HiPIMS, surface integrity.

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516 Elaboration and Validation of a Survey about Research on the Characteristics of Mentoring of University Professors’ Lifelong Learning

Authors: Nagore Guerra Bilbao, Clemente Lobato Fraile

Abstract:

This paper outlines the design and development of the MENDEPRO questionnaire, designed to analyze mentoring performance within a professional development process carried out with professors at the University of the Basque Country, Spain. The study took into account the international research carried out over the past two decades into teachers' professional development, and was also based on a thorough review of the most common instruments used to identify and analyze mentoring styles, many of which fail to provide sufficient psychometric guarantees. The present study aimed to gather empirical data in order to verify the metric quality of the questionnaire developed. To this end, the process followed to validate the theoretical construct was as follows: The formulation of the items and indicators in accordance with the study variables; the analysis of the validity and reliability of the initial questionnaire; the review of the second version of the questionnaire and the definitive measurement instrument. Content was validated through the formal agreement and consensus of 12 university professor training experts. A reduced sample of professors who had participated in a lifelong learning program was then selected for a trial evaluation of the instrument developed. After the trial, 18 items were removed from the initial questionnaire. The final version of the instrument, comprising 33 items, was then administered to a sample group of 99 participants. The results revealed a five-dimensional structure matching theoretical expectations. Also, the reliability data for both the instrument as a whole (.98) and its various dimensions (between .91 and .97) were very high. The questionnaire was thus found to have satisfactory psychometric properties and can therefore be considered apt for studying the performance of mentoring in both induction programs for young professors and lifelong learning programs for senior faculty members.

Keywords: Higher education, mentoring, professional development, university teachers.

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515 CRYPTO COPYCAT: A Fashion Centric Blockchain Framework for Eliminating Fashion Infringement

Authors: Magdi Elmessiry, Adel Elmessiry

Abstract:

The fashion industry represents a significant portion of the global gross domestic product, however, it is plagued by cheap imitators that infringe on the trademarks which destroys the fashion industry's hard work and investment. While eventually the copycats would be found and stopped, the damage has already been done, sales are missed and direct and indirect jobs are lost. The infringer thrives on two main facts: the time it takes to discover them and the lack of tracking technologies that can help the consumer distinguish them. Blockchain technology is a new emerging technology that provides a distributed encrypted immutable and fault resistant ledger. Blockchain presents a ripe technology to resolve the infringement epidemic facing the fashion industry. The significance of the study is that a new approach leveraging the state of the art blockchain technology coupled with artificial intelligence is used to create a framework addressing the fashion infringement problem. It transforms the current focus on legal enforcement, which is difficult at best, to consumer awareness that is far more effective. The framework, Crypto CopyCat, creates an immutable digital asset representing the actual product to empower the customer with a near real time query system. This combination emphasizes the consumer's awareness and appreciation of the product's authenticity, while provides real time feedback to the producer regarding the fake replicas. The main findings of this study are that implementing this approach can delay the fake product penetration of the original product market, thus allowing the original product the time to take advantage of the market. The shift in the fake adoption results in reduced returns, which impedes the copycat market and moves the emphasis to the original product innovation.

Keywords: Fashion, infringement, Blockchain, artificial intelligence, textiles supply.

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514 Triplet Shear Tests on Retrofitted Brickwork Masonry Walls

Authors: Berna Istegun, Erkan Celebi

Abstract:

The main objective of this experimental study is to assess the shear strength and the crack behavior of the triplets built of perforated brickwork masonry elements. In order to observe the influence of shear resistance and energy dissipating before and after retrofitting applications by using the reinforcing system, static-cyclic shear tests were employed in the structural mechanics laboratory of Sakarya University. The reinforcing system is composed of hybrid multiaxial seismic fabric consisting of alkali resistant glass and polypropylene fibers. The plaster as bonding material used in the specimen’s retrofitting consists of expanded glass granular. In order to acquire exact measuring data about the failure behavior of the two mortar joints under shear stressing, vertical load-controlled cylinder having force capacity of 50 kN and loading rate of 1.5 mm/min. with an internal inductive displacement transducers is carried out perpendicular to the triplet specimens. In this study, a total of six triplet specimens with textile reinforcement were prepared for these shear bond tests. The three of them were produced as single-sided reinforced triplets with seismic fabric, while the others were strengthened on both sides. In addition, three triplet specimens without retrofitting and plaster were also tested as reference samples. The obtained test results were given in the manner of force-displacement relationships, ductility coefficients and shear strength parameters comparatively. It is concluded that two-side seismic textile applications on masonry elements with relevant plaster have considerably increased the sheer force resistance and the ductility capacity.

Keywords: Triplet shears tests, retrofitting, seismic fabric, perforated brickwork, expanded glass granular.

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513 A Retrospective Drug Utilization Study of Antiplatelet Drugs in Patients with Ischemic Heart Disease

Authors: K. Jyothi, T. S. Mohamed Saleem, L. Vineela, C. Gopinath, K. B. Yadavender Reddy

Abstract:

Objective: Acute coronary syndrome is a clinical condition encompassing ST segments elevation myocardial infraction, Non ST segment is elevation myocardial infraction and un stable angina is characterized by ruptured coronary plaque, stress and myocardial injury. Angina pectoris is a pressure like pain in the chest that is induced by exertion or stress and relived with in the minute after cessation of effort or using sublingual nitroglycerin. The present research was undertaken to study the drug utilization pattern of antiplatelet drugs for the ischemic heart disease in a tertiary care hospital. Method: The present study is retrospective drug utilization study and study period is 6months. The data is collected from the discharge case sheet of general medicine department from medical department Rajiv Gandhi institute of medical sciences, Kadapa. The tentative sample size fixed was 250 patients. Out of 250 cases 19 cases was excluded because of unrelated data. Results: A total of 250 prescriptions were collected for the study according to the inclusion criteria 233 prescriptions were diagnosed with ischemic heart disease 17 prescriptions were excluded due to unrelated information. out of 233 prescriptions 128 are male (54.9%) and 105 patients are were female (45%). According to the gender distribution, the prevalence of ischemic heart disease in males are 90 (70.31%) and females are 39 (37.1%). In the same way the prevalence of ischemic heart disease along with cerebrovascular disease in males are 39 (29.6%) and females are 66 (62.6%). Conclusion: We found that 94.8% of drug utilization of antiplatelet drugs was achieved in the Rajiv Gandhi institute of medical sciences, Kadapa from 2011-2012.

Keywords: Angina pectoris, aspirin, clopidogrel, myocardial infarction.

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512 An Inclusion Project for Deaf Children into a Northern Italy Contest

Authors: G. Tamanza, A. Bossoni

Abstract:

84 deaf students (from primary school to college) and their families participated in this inclusion project in cooperation with numerous institutions in northern Italy (Brescia-Lombardy). Participants were either congenitally deaf or their deafness was related to other pathologies. This research promoted the integration of deaf students as they pass from primary school to high school to college. Learning methods and processes were studied that focused on encour­aging individual autonomy and socialization. The research team and its collaborators included school teachers, speech ther­apists, psychologists and home tutors, as well as teaching assistants, child neuropsychiatrists and other external authorities involved with deaf persons social inclusion programs. Deaf children and their families were supported, in terms of inclusion, and were made aware of the research team that focused on the Bisogni Educativi Speciali (BES or Special Educational Needs) (L.170/2010 - DM 5669/2011). This project included a diagnostic and evaluative phase as well as an operational one. Results demonstrated that deaf children were highly satisfied and confident; academic performance improved and collaboration in school increased. Deaf children felt that they had access to high school and college. Empowerment for the families of deaf children in terms of networking among local services that deal with the deaf also improved while family satisfaction also improved. We found that teachers and those who gave support to deaf children increased their professional skills. Achieving autonomy, instrumental, communicative and relational abilities were also found to be crucial. Project success was determined by temporal continuity, clear theoretical methodology, strong alliance for the project direction and a resilient team response.

Keywords: Autonomy, inclusion, skills, well-being.

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511 A Quantitative Model for Determining the Area of the “Core and Structural System Elements” of Tall Office Buildings

Authors: Görkem Arslan Kılınç

Abstract:

Due to the high construction, operation, and maintenance costs of tall buildings, quantification of the area in the plan layout which provides a financial return is an important design criterion. The area of the “core and the structural system elements” does not provide financial return but must exist in the plan layout. Some characteristic items of tall office buildings affect the size of these areas. From this point of view, 15 tall office buildings were systematically investigated. The typical office floor plans of these buildings were re-produced digitally. The area of the “core and the structural system elements” in each building and the characteristic items of each building were calculated. These characteristic items are the size of the long and short plan edge, plan length/width ratio, size of the core long and short edge, core length/width ratio, core area, slenderness, building height, number of floors, and floor height. These items were analyzed by correlation and regression analyses. Results of this paper put forward that; characteristic items which affect the area of "core and structural system elements" are plan long and short edge size, core short edge size, building height, and the number of floors. A one-unit increase in plan short side size increases the area of the "core and structural system elements" in the plan by 12,378 m2. An increase in core short edge size increases the area of the core and structural system elements in the plan by 25,650 m2. Subsequent studies can be conducted by expanding the sample of the study and considering the geographical location of the building.

Keywords: Core area, correlation analysis, floor area, regression analysis, space efficiency, tall office buildings.

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510 Substitution of Phosphate with Liquid Smoke as a Binder on the Quality of Chicken Nugget

Authors: E. Abustam, M. Yusuf, M. I. Said

Abstract:

One of functional properties of the meat is decrease of water holding capacity (WHC) during rigor mortis. At the time of pre-rigor, WHC is higher than post-rigor. The decline of WHC has implication to the other functional properties such as decreased cooking lost and yields resulting in lower elasticity and compactness of processed meat product. In many cases, the addition of phosphate in the meat will increase the functional properties of the meat such as WHC. Furthermore, liquid smoke has also been known in increasing the WHC of fresh meat. For food safety reasons, liquid smoke in the present study was used as a substitute to phosphate in production of chicken nuggets. This study aimed to know the effect of substitution of phosphate with liquid smoke on the quality of nuggets made from post-rigor chicken thigh and breast. The study was arranged using completely randomized design of factorial pattern 2x3 with three replications. Factor 1 was thigh and breast parts of the chicken, and factor 2 was different levels of liquid smoke in substitution to phosphate (0%, 50%, and 100%). The thigh and breast post-rigor broiler aged 40 days were used as the main raw materials in making nuggets. Auxiliary materials instead of meat were phosphate, liquid smoke at concentration of 10%, tapioca flour, salt, eggs and ice. Variables measured were flexibility, shear force value, cooking loss, elasticity level, and preferences. The results of this study showed that the substitution of phosphate with 100% liquid smoke resulting high quality nuggets. Likewise, the breast part of the meat showed higher quality nuggets than thigh part. This is indicated by high elasticity, low shear force value, low cooking loss, and a high level of preference of the nuggets. It can be concluded that liquid smoke can be used as a binder in making nuggets of chicken post-rigor.

Keywords: Liquid smoke, nugget quality, phosphate, post-rigor.

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509 The Effect of Drought Stress on Grain Yield, Yield Components and Protein Content of Durum Wheat Cultivars in Ilam Province, Iran

Authors: Parvaneh Vafa, Rahim Naseri, Meysam Moradi

Abstract:

In order to study the effect of drought stress on grain yield, yield components and associated traits of durum wheat cultivars, an experiment was done as split plot arrangement using randomized complete block design with three replications in Ilam province, Iran in 2009-2010 cropping season. Different levels of irrigation (Full irrigation, drought stress at stem elongation, Flowering and grain formation stages) were considered as a main plot and three durum wheat cultivars (Yavaros, Seimareh and Karkheh) were assigned as a sub plot. The results showed that drought stress was significant on grain yield, spike.m-2, grain. Spike-1, 1000-grain weight, biological yield, harvest index and protein content. Drought stress at all stages caused a loss in grain yield and its components. Full irrigation had the highest grain yield and yield components. Drought stress at stem elongation, flowering and grain formation stages caused a reduction in spike.m-2, grain.spike-1 and 1000-grain weight, respectively. Protein content was significantly affected by drought stress. The highest protein content was obtained from drought stress at grain formation stage. Cultivars had an influence on grain yield and yield components. Yavaros and Seimareh cultivars had the highest and lowest grain yield, respectively. Interaction effect between drought stress and cultivar had a significant effect on grain and yield components. Full irrigation and Yavaros cultivar had the highest grain yield and drought stress at grain formation stage and Seimareh cultivar had the lowest grain yield, respectively.

Keywords: Durum wheat, Drought stress, Grain yield.

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508 Evaluating the Understanding of the University Students (Basic Sciences and Engineering) about the Numerical Representation of the Average Rate of Change

Authors: Saeid Haghjoo, Ebrahim Reyhani, Fahimeh Kolahdouz

Abstract:

The present study aimed to evaluate the understanding of the students in Tehran universities (Iran) about the numerical representation of the average rate of change based on the Structure of Observed Learning Outcomes (SOLO). In the present descriptive-survey research, the statistical population included undergraduate students (basic sciences and engineering) in the universities of Tehran. The samples were 604 students selected by random multi-stage clustering. The measurement tool was a task whose face and content validity was confirmed by math and mathematics education professors. Using Cronbach's Alpha criterion, the reliability coefficient of the task was obtained 0.95, which verified its reliability. The collected data were analyzed by descriptive statistics and inferential statistics (chi-squared and independent t-tests) under SPSS-24 software. According to the SOLO model in the prestructural, unistructural, and multistructural levels, basic science students had a higher percentage of understanding than that of engineering students, although the outcome was inverse at the relational level. However, there was no significant difference in the average understanding of both groups. The results indicated that students failed to have a proper understanding of the numerical representation of the average rate of change, in addition to missconceptions when using physics formulas in solving the problem. In addition, multiple solutions were derived along with their dominant methods during the qualitative analysis. The current research proposed to focus on the context problems with approximate calculations and numerical representation, using software and connection common relations between math and physics in the teaching process of teachers and professors.

Keywords: Average rate of change, context problems, derivative, numerical representation, SOLO taxonomy.

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507 Effect of a Gravel Bed Flocculator on the Efficiency of a Low Cost Water Treatment Plants

Authors: Alaa Hussein Wadi

Abstract:

The principal objective of a water treatment plant is to produce water that satisfies a set of drinking water quality standards at a reasonable price to the consumers. The gravel-bed flocculator provide a simple and inexpensive design for flocculation in small water treatment plants (less than 5000 m3/day capacity). The packed bed of gravel provides ideal conditions for the formation of compact settleable flocs because of continuous recontact provided by the sinuous flow of water through the interstices formed by the gravel. The field data which were obtained from the operation of the water supply treatment unit cover the physical, chemical and biological water qualities of the raw and settled water as obtained by the operation of the treatment unit. The experiments were carried out with the aim of assessing the efficiency of the gravel filter in removing the turbidity, pathogenic bacteria, from the raw water. The water treatment plant, which was constructed for the treatment of river water, was in principle a rapid sand filter. The results show that the average value of the turbidity level of the settled water was 4.83 NTU with a standard deviation of turbidity 2.893 NTU. This indicated that the removal efficiency of the sedimentation tank (gravel filter) was about 67.8 %. for pH values fluctuated between 7.75 and 8.15, indicating the alkaline nature of the raw water of the river Shatt Al-Hilla, as expected. Raw water pH is depressed slightly following alum coagulation. The pH of the settled water ranged from 7.75 to a maximum of 8.05. The bacteriological tests which were carried out on the water samples were: total coliform test, E-coli test, and the plate count test. In each test the procedure used was as outlined in the Standard Methods for the Examination of Water and Wastewater (APHA, AWWA, and WPCF, 1985). The gravel filter exhibit a low performance in removing bacterial load. The percentage bacterial removal, which is maximum for total plate count (19%) and minimum for total coliform (16.82%).

Keywords: Gravel bed flocculator, turbidity, total coliform.

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506 Improved Thermal Comfort and Sensation with Occupant Control of Ceiling Personalized Ventilation System: A Lab Study

Authors: Walid Chakroun, Sorour Alotaibi, Nesreen Ghaddar, Kamel Ghali

Abstract:

This study aims at determining the extent to which occupant control of microenvironment influences, improves thermal sensation and comfort, and saves energy in spaces equipped with ceiling personalized ventilation (CPV) system assisted by chair fans (CF) and desk fans (DF) in 2 experiments in a climatic chamber equipped with two-station CPV systems, one that allows control of fan flow rate and the other is set to the fan speed of the selected participant in control. Each experiment included two participants each entering the cooled space from transitional environment at a conventional mixed ventilation (MV) at 24 °C. For CPV diffuser, fresh air was delivered at a rate of 20 Cubic feet per minute (CFM) and a temperature of 16 °C while the recirculated air was delivered at the same temperature but at a flow rate 150 CFM. The macroclimate air of the space was at 26 °C. The full speed flow rates for both the CFs and DFs were at 5 CFM and 20 CFM, respectively. Occupant 1 was allowed to operate the CFs or the DFs at (1/3 of the full speed, 2/3 of the full speed, and the full speed) while occupant 2 had no control on the fan speed and their fan speed was selected by occupant 1. Furthermore, a parametric study was conducted to study the effect of increasing the fresh air flow rate on the occupants’ thermal comfort and whole body sensations. The results showed that most occupants in the CPV+CFs, who did not control the CF flow rate, felt comfortable 6 minutes. The participants, who controlled the CF speeds, felt comfortable in around 24 minutes because they were preoccupied with the CFs. For the DF speed control experiments, most participants who did not control the DFs felt comfortable within the first 8 minutes. Similarly to the CPV+CFs, the participants who controlled the DF flow rates felt comfortable at around 26 minutes. When the CPV system was either supported by CFs or DFs, 93% of participants in both cases reached thermal comfort. Participants in the parametric study felt more comfortable when the fresh air flow rate was low, and felt cold when as the flow rate increased.

Keywords: Thermal comfort, thermal sensation, predicted mean vote, thermal environment.

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505 Effect of Flour Concentration and Retrogradation Treatment on Physical Properties of Instant Sinlek Brown Rice

Authors: Supat Chaiyakul, Direk Sukkasem, Patnachapa Natthapanpaisith

Abstract:

Sinlek rice flour beverage or instant product is a dietary supplement for dysphagia, or difficulty swallowing. It is also consumed by individuals who need to consume supplements to maintain their calorific needs. This product provides protein, fat, iron, and a high concentration of carbohydrate from rice flour. However, the application of native flour is limited due to its high viscosity. Starch modification by controlling starch retrogradation was used in this study. The research studies the effects of rice flour concentration and retrogradation treatment on the physical properties of instant Sinlek brown rice. The native rice flour, gelatinized rice flour, and flour gels retrograded under 4 °C for 3 and 7 days were investigated. From the statistical results, significant differences between native and retrograded flour were observed. The concentration of rice flour was the main factor influencing the swelling power, solubility, and pasting properties. With the increase in rice flour content from 10 to 15%, swelling power, peak viscosity, trough, and final viscosity decreased; but, solubility, pasting temperature, peak time, breakdown, and setback increased. The peak time, pasting temperature, peak viscosity, trough, and final viscosity decreased as the storage period increased from 3 to 7 days. The retrograded rice flour powders had lower pasting temperature, peak viscosity, breakdown, and final viscosity than the gelatinized and native flour powders. Reduction of starch viscosity by gelatinization and controlling starch retrogradation could allow for increased quantities of rice flour in instant rice beverages. Also, the treatment could increase the energy and nutrient densities of rice beverages without affecting the viscosity of this product.

Keywords: Instant rice, pasting properties, pregelatinization, retrogradation.

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504 MiR-200a/ZEB1 Pathway in Liver Fibrogenesis of Biliary Atresia

Authors: Hai-Ying Liu, Yi-Hao Chen, Shu-Yin Pang, Feng-Hua Wang, Xiao-Fang Peng, Li-Yuan Yang, Zheng-Rong Chen, Yi Chen, Bing Zhu

Abstract:

Objective: Biliary atresia (BA) is characterized by progressive liver fibrosis. Epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) has been implicated as a key mechanism in the pathogenesis of organ fibrosis. MiR-200a has been shown to repress EMT. We aim to explore the role of miR-200a in the fibrogenesis of BA. Methods: We obtained the plasma samples and liver samples from patients with BA or controls to examine the role of miR-200a. Histological liver fibrosis was assessed using the Ishak fibrosis scores. Reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) was performed to detect the expression of miR-200a in plasma. We also evaluated the expression of miR-200a in liver tissues using tyramide signal amplification fluorescence in situ hybridization (TSA-FISH). The expression of EMT related proteins zinc finger E-box-binding homeobox 1 (ZEB1), E-cadherin and α-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA) in the liver sections were detected by immunohistochemical staining. Results: We found that the expression of miR-200a was both elevated in the plasma and liver tissues from BA patients compared with the controls. The hepatic expression of ZEB1 and α-SMA were markedly increased in the liver sections from BA patients compared to the controls, whereas E-cadherin was downregulated in the BA group. Simultaneously, we noted that the hepatic expression of miR-200a, E-cadherin and α-SMA were upregulated with the progression of liver fibrosis in the BA group, while ZEB1 was downregulated with the progression of liver fibrosis in BA patients. Conclusion: These findings suggest EMT has a critical effect on the fibrotic process of BA, and the interaction between miR-200a and ZEB1 may regulate EMT and eventually influence liver fibrogenesis of BA.

Keywords: Biliary atresia, liver fibrosis, MicroRNA, epithelial-mesenchymal transition, zinc finger e-box-binding homeobox 1.

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503 Geostatistical Analysis and Mapping of Groundlevel Ozone in a Medium Sized Urban Area

Authors: F. J. Moral García, P. Valiente González, F. López Rodríguez

Abstract:

Ground-level tropospheric ozone is one of the air pollutants of most concern. It is mainly produced by photochemical processes involving nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds in the lower parts of the atmosphere. Ozone levels become particularly high in regions close to high ozone precursor emissions and during summer, when stagnant meteorological conditions with high insolation and high temperatures are common. In this work, some results of a study about urban ozone distribution patterns in the city of Badajoz, which is the largest and most industrialized city in Extremadura region (southwest Spain) are shown. Fourteen sampling campaigns, at least one per month, were carried out to measure ambient air ozone concentrations, during periods that were selected according to favourable conditions to ozone production, using an automatic portable analyzer. Later, to evaluate the ozone distribution at the city, the measured ozone data were analyzed using geostatistical techniques. Thus, first, during the exploratory analysis of data, it was revealed that they were distributed normally, which is a desirable property for the subsequent stages of the geostatistical study. Secondly, during the structural analysis of data, theoretical spherical models provided the best fit for all monthly experimental variograms. The parameters of these variograms (sill, range and nugget) revealed that the maximum distance of spatial dependence is between 302-790 m and the variable, air ozone concentration, is not evenly distributed in reduced distances. Finally, predictive ozone maps were derived for all points of the experimental study area, by use of geostatistical algorithms (kriging). High prediction accuracy was obtained in all cases as cross-validation showed. Useful information for hazard assessment was also provided when probability maps, based on kriging interpolation and kriging standard deviation, were produced.

Keywords: Kriging, map, tropospheric ozone, variogram.

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502 Modeling the Fischer-Tropsch Reaction In a Slurry Bubble Column Reactor

Authors: F. Gholami, M. Torabi Angaji, Z. Gholami

Abstract:

Fischer-Tropsch synthesis is one of the most important catalytic reactions that convert the synthetic gas to light and heavy hydrocarbons. One of the main issues is selecting the type of reactor. The slurry bubble reactor is suitable choice for Fischer- Tropsch synthesis because of its good qualification to transfer heat and mass, high durability of catalyst, low cost maintenance and repair. The more common catalysts for Fischer-Tropsch synthesis are Iron-based and Cobalt-based catalysts, the advantage of these catalysts on each other depends on which type of hydrocarbons we desire to produce. In this study, Fischer-Tropsch synthesis is modeled with Iron and Cobalt catalysts in a slurry bubble reactor considering mass and momentum balance and the hydrodynamic relations effect on the reactor behavior. Profiles of reactant conversion and reactant concentration in gas and liquid phases were determined as the functions of residence time in the reactor. The effects of temperature, pressure, liquid velocity, reactor diameter, catalyst diameter, gasliquid and liquid-solid mass transfer coefficients and kinetic coefficients on the reactant conversion have been studied. With 5% increase of liquid velocity (with Iron catalyst), H2 conversions increase about 6% and CO conversion increase about 4%, With 8% increase of liquid velocity (with Cobalt catalyst), H2 conversions increase about 26% and CO conversion increase about 4%. With 20% increase of gas-liquid mass transfer coefficient (with Iron catalyst), H2 conversions increase about 12% and CO conversion increase about 10% and with Cobalt catalyst H2 conversions increase about 10% and CO conversion increase about 6%. Results show that the process is sensitive to gas-liquid mass transfer coefficient and optimum condition operation occurs in maximum possible liquid velocity. This velocity must be more than minimum fluidization velocity and less than terminal velocity in such a way that avoid catalysts particles from leaving the fluidized bed.

Keywords: Modeling, Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis, Slurry Bubble Column Reactor.

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501 The Magnetic Susceptibility of the Late Quaternary Loess in North-East of Iran and Its Correlation with Other Palaeoclimatical Parameters

Authors: Fereshteh M. Haskouei, Habib Alimohammadian

Abstract:

Magnetic susceptibility (χ) is operational to identify of late quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles in loess-paleosol sequences. It is well accepted that many loess-paleosol sequences bear witness to cold-dry/warm-humid periods, well known as glacial-interglacial cycles, respectively. For this study, loess-paleosol sequence of north-east of Iran was magnetically investigated. The study area is situated at about 8 km away of Neka city, on the main road of Sari-Behshahr, in Mazandaran Province, north of Iran. The youngest deposits of study area are the late Quaternary wind-blown accumulations. In this study, the total number of 117 samples was collected from loess-paleosols units. After that, the natural remnant magnetization (NRM) and magnetic susceptibility (MS) of the samples were measured. Variation of MS of more than 110 loess samples was plotted to reveal the correlation of the MS and paleoclimatic changes. This study aims reconstruction of climatic changes (glacial-interglacial and stadials-interstadials cycles). To confirm our results we compared MS (χ) and the curves of other investigations in paleoclimatology. This correspondence abled us to recognize worldly events in the study area such as: Younger Dryas, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), deglaciation of Northern Hemisphere etc. The obtained magnetic data indicate that during almost 50 ka, at least two glacial-interglacial periods occurred in north-east of Iran. Further, variation of χ values revealed short period of climatically cycles known as stadials-interstadials. We recognized 4 stadials and a single stadial as colder sub-periods for S0 (recently soil-paleosol) and S2 (lower paleosol), respectively, Moreover, we recognized 6 warmer sub-periods (interstadials) for L1 (upper loess) and one interstadial L2 (lower loess).

Keywords: Glacial-interglacial cycles, Iran, last glacial maximum, loess, magnetic susceptibility (χ), Neka, Stadials-Interstadials sub-periods, younger dryas.

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500 A Survey on E-Guide to Educational Tour Planning in Environmental Science among Standard Six Primary School Students the Ministry of Education Malaysia

Authors: A. Halim Sahelan, Mohd Halid Abu, Jamaluddin Hashim, Zulisman Maksom, Mohd Afif Md Nasir

Abstract:

This study aims to assess the students' needs for the tour planning e-guide. The study is developing on the contribution and importance of the Educational Tour Planning Guide (ETP) is a multimedia course ware as one of the effective methods in teaching and learning of environmental science among the students in primary schools of the Ministry of Education, Malaysia. It is to provide the student with knowledge and experience about tourism, environmental science activities and process. E-guide to ETP also hopes to strengthen the student understanding toward the subject learn in the tourism environmental science. In order to assess the student's needs on the e-Guide to Educational Tour Planning in Environmental Science, the study has produced a similar e-Guide to ETP in the form as a course ware to be tested during the study. The study has involved several steps in order to be completed. It is such as the formulation of the problem, the review of the literature, the formulation of the study methodology, the production of the e-Guide to ETP, field survey and finally the analyses and discussion made on the data gathered during the study. The survey has involved 100 respondents among the students in standard six primary schools in Kluang Johor. Through the findings, the study indicates that the current tested product is acceptable among the students in learning environmental science as a guide to plan for the tour. The findings also show a slight difference between the respondents who are using the e-Guide to ETP, and those who are not on the basis of the e-Guide to ETP results. Due the important for the study, the researcher hopes to be having a fair discussion and excellence, recommendation for the development of the product of the current study. This report is written also important to provide a written reference for the future related study.

Keywords: Tour planning e-guide, educational tour planning guide, environmental science, multimedia course ware.

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499 Drone On-time Obstacle Avoidance for Static and Dynamic Obstacles

Authors: Herath MPC Jayaweera, Samer Hanoun

Abstract:

Path planning for on-time obstacle avoidance is an essential and challenging task that enables drones to achieve safe operation in any application domain. The level of challenge increases significantly on the obstacle avoidance technique when the drone is following a ground mobile entity (GME). This is mainly due to the change in direction and magnitude of the GMEs velocity in dynamic and unstructured environments. Force field techniques are the most widely used obstacle avoidance methods due to their simplicity, ease of use and potential to be adopted for three-dimensional dynamic environments. However, the existing force field obstacle avoidance techniques suffer many drawbacks including their tendency to generate longer routes when the obstacles are sideways of the drones route, poor ability to find the shortest flyable path, propensity to fall into local minima, producing a non-smooth path, and high failure rate in the presence of symmetrical obstacles. To overcome these shortcomings, this paper proposes an on-time three-dimensional obstacle avoidance method for drones to effectively and efficiently avoid dynamic and static obstacles in unknown environments while pursuing a GME. This on-time obstacle avoidance technique generates velocity waypoints for its obstacle-free and efficient path based on the shape of the encountered obstacles. This method can be utilize on most types of drones that have basic distance measurement sensors and autopilot supported flight controllers. The proposed obstacle avoidance technique is validated and evaluated against existing force field methods for different simulation scenarios in Gazebo and ROS supported PX4-SITL. The simulation results show that the proposed obstacle avoidance technique outperforms the existing force field techniques and is better suited for real-world applications.

Keywords: Drones, force field methods, obstacle avoidance, path planning.

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498 Professional Burn out of Teachers: Reasons and Regularities

Authors: Dabyltayeva R. Y., Smatova K.B., Кabekenov G., Toleshova U., Shagyrbayeva M.

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In recent years in Kazakhstan, as well as in all countries, we have been talking not only about the professional stress, but also professional Burnout Syndrome of employees. Burnout is essentially a response to chronic emotional stress – manifests itself in the form of chronic fatigue, despondency, unmotivated aggression, anger, and others. This condition is due to mental fatigue among teachers as a sort of payment for overstrain when professional commitments include the impact of “heat your soul", emotional investment. The emergence of professional Burnout among teachers is due to the system of interrelated and mutually reinforcing factors relating to the various levels of the personality: individually-psychological level is psychodynamic special subject characteristics of valuemotivational sphere and formation of skills and habits of selfregulation; the socio-psychological level includes especially the Organization and interpersonal interaction of a teacher. Signs of the Burnout were observed in 15 testees, and virtually a symptom could be observed in every teacher. As a result of the diagnosis 48% of teachers had the signs of stress (phase syndrome), resulting in a sense of anxiety, mood, heightened emotional susceptibility. The following results have also been got:-the fall of General energy potential – 14 pers. -Psychosomatic and psycho vegetative syndrome – 26 pers. -emotional deficit-34 pers. -emotional Burnout Syndrome-6 pers. The problem of professional Burnout of teachers in the current conditions should become not only meaningful, but particularly relevant. The quality of education of the younger generation depends on professional development; teachers- training level, and how “healthy" teachers are. That is why the systematic maintenance of pedagogic-professional development for teachers (including disclosure of professional Burnout Syndrome factors) takes on a special meaning.

Keywords: Professional burnout syndrome, adaptive syndrome, stage of depletion syndrome, symptoms and characteristics of burnout, prophylactic of professional destruction techniques.

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497 Evaluation of Pragmatic Information in an English Textbook: Focus on Requests

Authors: Israa A. Qari

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Learning to request in a foreign language is a key ability within pragmatics language teaching. This paper examines how requests are taught in English Unlimited Book 3 (Cambridge University Press), an EFL textbook series employed by King Abdulaziz University in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia to teach advanced foundation year students English. The focus of analysis is the evaluation of the request linguistic strategies present in the textbook, frequency of the use of these strategies, and the contextual information provided on the use of these linguistic forms. The researcher collected all the linguistic forms which consisted of the request speech act and divided them into levels employing the CCSARP request coding manual. Findings demonstrated that simple and commonly employed request strategies are introduced. Looking closely at the exercises throughout the chapters, it was noticeable that the book exclusively employed the most direct form of requesting (the imperative) when giving learners instructions: e.g. listen, write, ask, answer, read, look, complete, choose, talk, think, etc. The book also made use of some other request strategies such as ‘hedged performatives’ and ‘query preparatory’. However, it was also found that many strategies were not dealt with in the book, specifically strategies with combined functions (e.g. possibility, ability). On a sociopragmatic level, a strong focus was found to exist on standard situations in which relations between the requester and requestee are clear. In general, contextual information was communicated implicitly only. The textbook did not seem to differentiate between formal and informal request contexts (register) which might consequently impel students to overgeneralize. The paper closes with some recommendations for textbook and curriculum designers. Findings are also contrasted with previous results from similar body of research on EFL requests.

Keywords: EFL, Requests, Saudi, speech acts, textbook evaluation.

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496 Cybersecurity for Digital Twins in the Built Environment: Research Landscape, Industry Attitudes and Future Direction

Authors: Kaznah Alshammari, Thomas Beach, Yacine Rezgui

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Technological advances in the construction sector are helping to make smart cities a reality by means of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS). CPS integrate information and the physical world through the use of Information Communication Technologies (ICT). An increasingly common goal in the built environment is to integrate Building Information Models (BIM) with Internet of Things (IoT) and sensor technologies using CPS. Future advances could see the adoption of digital twins, creating new opportunities for CPS using monitoring, simulation and optimisation technologies. However, researchers often fail to fully consider the security implications. To date, it is not widely possible to assimilate BIM data and cybersecurity concepts and, therefore, security has thus far been overlooked. This paper reviews the empirical literature concerning IoT applications in the built environment and discusses real-world applications of the IoT intended to enhance construction practices, people’s lives and bolster cybersecurity. Specifically, this research addresses two research questions: (a) How suitable are the current IoT and CPS security stacks to address the cybersecurity threats facing digital twins in the context of smart buildings and districts? and (b) What are the current obstacles to tackling cybersecurity threats to the built environment CPS? To answer these questions, this paper reviews the current state-of-the-art research concerning digital twins in the built environment, the IoT, BIM, urban cities and cybersecurity. The results of the findings of this study confirmed the importance of using digital twins in both IoT and BIM. Also, eight reference zones across Europe have gained special recognition for their contributions to the advancement of IoT science. Therefore, this paper evaluates the use of digital twins in CPS to arrive at recommendations for expanding BIM specifications to facilitate IoT compliance, bolster cybersecurity and integrate digital twin and city standards in the smart cities of the future.

Keywords: BIM, cybersecurity, digital twins, IoT, urban cities.

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495 Temperature Control & Comfort Level of Elementary School Building with Green Roof in New Taipei City, Taiwan

Authors: Ying-Ming Su, Mei-Shu Huang

Abstract:

To mitigate the urban heat island effect has become a global issue when we are faced with the challenge of climate change. Through literature review, plant photosynthesis can reduce the carbon dioxide and mitigate the urban heat island effect to a degree. Because there are not enough open space and parks, green roof has become an important policy in Taiwan. We selected elementary school buildings in northern New Taipei City as research subjects since elementary schools are asked with priority to build green roof and important educational place to promote green roof concept. Testo175-H1 recording device was used to record the temperature and humidity differences between roof surface and interior space below roof with and without green roof in the long-term. We also use questionnaires to investigate the awareness of comfort level of green roof and sensation of teachers and students of the elementary schools. The results indicated that the temperature of roof without greening was higher than that with greening by about 2°C. But sometimes during noontime, the temperature of green roof was higher than that of non-green roof probably because of the character of the accumulation and dissipation of heat of greening. The temperature of the interior space below green roof was normally lower than that without green roof by about 1°C, showing that green roof could lower the temperature. The humidity of the green roof was higher than the one without greening also indicated that green roof retained water better. Teachers liked to combine green roof concept in the curriculum, and students wished all classes can take turns to maintain the green roof. Teachers and students whose school had integrated green roof concept in the curriculum were more willing to participate in the maintenance work of green roof. Teachers and students who may have access to and touch the green roof can be more aware of the green roof benefit. We suggest architects to increase the accessibility and visibility of green roof, such as use it as a part of the activity space. This idea can be a reference to the green roof curriculum design.

Keywords: Comfort level, elementary school, green roof, heat island effect.

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494 Study on Seismic Performance of Reinforced Soil Walls to Modify the Pseudo Static Method

Authors: Majid Yazdandoust

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This study, tries to suggest a design method based on displacement using finite difference numerical modeling in reinforcing soil retaining wall with steel strip. In this case, dynamic loading characteristics such as duration, frequency, peak ground acceleration, geometrical characteristics of reinforced soil structure and type of the site are considered to correct the pseudo static method and finally introduce the pseudo static coefficient as a function of seismic performance level and peak ground acceleration. For this purpose, the influence of dynamic loading characteristics, reinforcement length, height of reinforced system and type of the site are investigated on seismic behavior of reinforcing soil retaining wall with steel strip. Numerical results illustrate that the seismic response of this type of wall is highly dependent to cumulative absolute velocity, maximum acceleration, and height and reinforcement length so that the reinforcement length can be introduced as the main factor in shape of failure. Considering the loading parameters, geometric parameters of the wall and type of the site showed that the used method in this study leads to efficient designs in comparison with other methods, which are usually based on limit-equilibrium concept. The outputs show the over-estimation of equilibrium design methods in comparison with proposed displacement based methods here.

Keywords: Pseudo static coefficient, seismic performance design, numerical modeling, steel strip reinforcement, retaining walls, cumulative absolute velocity, failure shape.

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493 Rheological Properties of Dough and Sensory Quality of Crackers with Dietary Fibers

Authors: Ljubica Dokić, Ivana Nikolić, Dragana Šoronja–Simović, Zita Šereš, Biljana Pajin, Nils Juul, Nikola Maravić

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The possibility of application the dietary fibers in production of crackers was observed in this work, as well as their influence on rheological and textural properties on the dough for crackers and influence on sensory properties of obtained crackers. Three different dietary fibers, oat, potato and pea fibers, replaced 10% of wheat flour. Long fermentation process and baking test method were used for crackers production. The changes of dough for crackers were observed by rheological methods of determination the viscoelastic dough properties and by textural measurements. Sensory quality of obtained crackers was described using quantity descriptive method (QDA) by trained members of descriptive panel. Additional analysis of crackers surface was performed by videometer. Based on rheological determination, viscoelastic properties of dough for crackers were reduced by application of dietary fibers. Manipulation of dough with 10% of potato fiber was disabled, thus the recipe modification included increase in water content at 35%. Dough compliance to constant stress for samples with dietary fibers decreased, due to more rigid and stiffer dough consistency compared to control sample. Also, hardness of dough for these samples increased and dough extensibility decreased. Sensory properties of final products, crackers, were reduced compared to control sample. Application of dietary fibers affected mostly hardness, structure and crispness of the crackers. Observed crackers were low marked for flavor and taste, due to influence of fibers specific aroma. The sample with 10% of potato fibers and increased water content was the most adaptable to applied stresses and to production process. Also this sample was close to control sample without dietary fibers by evaluation of sensory properties and by results of videometer method.

Keywords: Crackers, dietary fibers, rheology, sensory properties.

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492 Making Food Science Education and Research Activities More Attractive for University Students and Food Enterprises by Utilizing Open Innovative Space Approach

Authors: A-M. Saarela

Abstract:

At the Savonia University of Applied Sciences (UAS), curriculum and studies have been improved by applying an Open Innovation Space approach (OIS). It is based on multidisciplinary action learning. The key elements of OIS-ideology are work-life orientation, and student-centric communal learning. In this approach, every participant can learn from each other and innovations will be created. In this social innovation educational approach, all practices are carried out in close collaboration with enterprises in real-life settings, not in classrooms. As an example, in this paper, Savonia UAS’s Future Food RDI hub (FF) shows how OIS practices are implemented by providing food product development and consumer research services for enterprises in close collaboration with academicians, students and consumers. In particular one example of OIS experimentation in the field is provided by a consumer research carried out utilizing verbal analysis protocol combined with audiovisual observation (VAP-WAVO). In this case, all co-learners were acting together in supermarket settings to collect the relevant data for a product development and the marketing department of a company. The company benefitted from the results obtained, students were more satisfied with their studies, educators and academicians were able to obtain good evidence for further collaboration as well as renewing curriculum contents based on the requirements of working life. In addition, society will benefit over time as young university adults find careers more easily through their OIS related food science studies. Also this knowledge interaction model re-news education practices and brings working-life closer to educational research institutes.

Keywords: Collaboration, education, food science, industry, knowledge transfer, RDI, student.

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491 Introductory Design Optimisation of a Machine Tool using a Virtual Machine Concept

Authors: Johan Wall, Johan Fredin, Anders Jönsson, Göran Broman

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Designing modern machine tools is a complex task. A simulation tool to aid the design work, a virtual machine, has therefore been developed in earlier work. The virtual machine considers the interaction between the mechanics of the machine (including structural flexibility) and the control system. This paper exemplifies the usefulness of the virtual machine as a tool for product development. An optimisation study is conducted aiming at improving the existing design of a machine tool regarding weight and manufacturing accuracy at maintained manufacturing speed. The problem can be categorised as constrained multidisciplinary multiobjective multivariable optimisation. Parameters of the control and geometric quantities of the machine are used as design variables. This results in a mix of continuous and discrete variables and an optimisation approach using a genetic algorithm is therefore deployed. The accuracy objective is evaluated according to international standards. The complete systems model shows nondeterministic behaviour. A strategy to handle this based on statistical analysis is suggested. The weight of the main moving parts is reduced by more than 30 per cent and the manufacturing accuracy is improvement by more than 60 per cent compared to the original design, with no reduction in manufacturing speed. It is also shown that interaction effects exist between the mechanics and the control, i.e. this improvement would most likely not been possible with a conventional sequential design approach within the same time, cost and general resource frame. This indicates the potential of the virtual machine concept for contributing to improved efficiency of both complex products and the development process for such products. Companies incorporating such advanced simulation tools in their product development could thus improve its own competitiveness as well as contribute to improved resource efficiency of society at large.

Keywords: Machine tools, Mechatronics, Non-deterministic, Optimisation, Product development, Virtual machine

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490 'Performance-Based' Seismic Methodology and Its Application in Seismic Design of Reinforced Concrete Structures

Authors: Jelena R. Pejović, Nina N. Serdar

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This paper presents an analysis of the “Performance-Based” seismic design method, in order to overcome the perceived disadvantages and limitations of the existing seismic design approach based on force, in engineering practice. Bearing in mind, the specificity of the earthquake as a load and the fact that the seismic resistance of the structures solely depends on its behaviour in the nonlinear field, traditional seismic design approach based on force and linear analysis is not adequate. “Performance-Based” seismic design method is based on nonlinear analysis and can be used in everyday engineering practice. This paper presents the application of this method to eight-story high reinforced concrete building with combined structural system (reinforced concrete frame structural system in one direction and reinforced concrete ductile wall system in other direction). The nonlinear time-history analysis is performed on the spatial model of the structure using program Perform 3D, where the structure is exposed to forty real earthquake records. For considered building, large number of results were obtained. It was concluded that using this method we could, with a high degree of reliability, evaluate structural behavior under earthquake. It is obtained significant differences in the response of structures to various earthquake records. Also analysis showed that frame structural system had not performed well at the effect of earthquake records on soil like sand and gravel, while a ductile wall system had a satisfactory behavior on different types of soils.

Keywords: Ductile wall, frame system, nonlinear time-history analysis, performance-based methodology, RC building.

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489 A Post Keynesian Environmental Macroeconomic Model for Agricultural Water Sustainability under Climate Change in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

Authors: Ke Zhao, Ballarat Colin Richardson, Jerry Courvisanos, John Crawford

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Climate change has profound consequences for the agriculture of south-eastern Australia and its climate-induced water shortage in the Murray-Darling Basin. Post Keynesian Economics (PKE) macro-dynamics, along with Kaleckian investment and growth theory, are used to develop an ecological-economic system dynamics model of this complex nonlinear river basin system. The Murray- Darling Basin Simulation Model (MDB-SM) uses the principles of PKE to incorporate the fundamental uncertainty of economic behaviors of farmers regarding the investments they make and the climate change they face, particularly as regards water ecosystem services. MDB-SM provides a framework for macroeconomic policies, especially for long-term fiscal policy and for policy directed at the sustainability of agricultural water, as measured by socio-economic well-being considerations, which include sustainable consumption and investment in the river basin. The model can also reproduce other ecological and economic aspects and, for certain parameters and initial values, exhibit endogenous business cycles and ecological sustainability with realistic characteristics. Most importantly, MDBSM provides a platform for the analysis of alternative economic policy scenarios. These results reveal the importance of understanding water ecosystem adaptation under climate change by integrating a PKE macroeconomic analytical framework with the system dynamics modelling approach. Once parameterised and supplied with historical initial values, MDB-SM should prove to be a practical tool to provide alternative long-term policy simulations of agricultural water and socio-economic well-being.

Keywords: Agricultural water, Macroeconomic dynamics, Modeling, Investment dynamics, Sustainability, Unemployment, Economics, Keynesian, Kaleckian.

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