Search results for: Performance model

Authors: S. H. Iranmanesh, L. Aliabadi, A. Mollajan

Abstract:

Integrated resilience engineering (IRE) is capable of returning banking systems to the normal state in extensive economic circumstances. In this study, information system of a large bank (with several branches) is assessed and optimized under severe economic conditions. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) models are employed to achieve the objective of this study. Nine IRE factors are considered to be the outputs, and a dummy variable is defined as the input of the DEA models. A standard questionnaire is designed and distributed among executive managers to be considered as the decision-making units (DMUs). Reliability and validity of the questionnaire is examined based on Cronbach's alpha and t-test. The most appropriate DEA model is determined based on average efficiency and normality test. It is shown that the proposed integrated design provides higher efficiency than the conventional RE design. Results of sensitivity and perturbation analysis indicate that self-organization, fault tolerance, and reporting culture respectively compose about 50 percent of total weight.

Keywords: Banking system, data envelopment analysis, DEA, integrated resilience engineering, IRE, performance evaluation, perturbation analysis.

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Authors: Patrice Obinna Umenne, Marcel O. Odhiambo

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WiMAX and Wi-Fi are considered as the promising broadband access solutions for wireless MAN’s and LANs, respectively. In the recent works WiMAX is considered suitable as a backhaul service to connect multiple dispersed Wi-Fi ‘hotspots’. Hence a new integrated WiMAX/Wi-Fi architecture has been proposed in literatures. In this paper the performance of an integrated WiMAX/Wi-Fi network has been investigated by streaming a video conference application. The difference in performance between the two protocols is compared with respect to video conferencing. The Heterogeneous network was simulated in the OPNET simulator.

Keywords: Throughput, delay, delay variance, packet loss, Quality of Service (QoS).

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Authors: Emad Alenany, M. Adel El-Baz

Abstract:

In this paper, the flow of different classes of patients into a hospital is modelled and analyzed by using the queueing network analyzer (QNA) algorithm and discrete event simulation. Input data for QNA are the rate and variability parameters of the arrival and service times in addition to the number of servers in each facility. Patient flows mostly match real flow for a hospital in Egypt. Based on the analysis of the waiting times, two approaches are suggested for improving performance: Separating patients into service groups, and adopting different service policies for sequencing patients through hospital units. The separation of a specific group of patients, with higher performance target, to be served separately from the rest of patients requiring lower performance target, requires the same capacity while improves performance for the selected group of patients with higher target. Besides, it is shown that adopting the shortest processing time and shortest remaining processing time service policies among other tested policies would results in, respectively, 11.47% and 13.75% reduction in average waiting time relative to first come first served policy.

Keywords: Queueing network, discrete-event simulation, health applications, SPT.

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Authors: H. Alaleh, N. Hedayat, A. Alaleh, H. Ayazi, A. Ruhani

Abstract:

Run-offs are considered as important hydrological factors in feasibility studies of river engineering and irrigation-related projects under arid and semi-arid condition. Flood control is one of the crucial factor, the management of which while mitigates its destructive consequences, abstracts considerable volume of renewable water resources. The methodology applied here was based on Mizumura, which applied a mathematical model for simple tank to simulate the rainfall-run-off process in a particular water basin using the data from the observational hydrograph. The model was applied in the Dez River water basin adjacent to Greater Dezful region, Iran in order to simulate and estimate the floods. Results indicated that the calculated hydrographs using the simple tank method, SCS-CN model and the observation hydrographs had a close proximity. It was also found that on average the flood time and discharge peaks in the simple tank were closer to the observational data than the CN method. On the other hand, the calculated flood volume in the CN model was significantly closer to the observational data than the simple tank model.

Keywords: Simple tank, Dez River, run-off, lag time, excess rainfall.

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Authors: Chun-Lang Chang

Abstract:

According to the statistics, the prevalence of congenital hearing loss in Taiwan is approximately six thousandths; furthermore, one thousandths of infants have severe hearing impairment. Hearing ability during infancy has significant impact in the development of children-s oral expressions, language maturity, cognitive performance, education ability and social behaviors in the future. Although most children born with hearing impairment have sensorineural hearing loss, almost every child more or less still retains some residual hearing. If provided with a hearing aid or cochlear implant (a bionic ear) timely in addition to hearing speech training, even severely hearing-impaired children can still learn to talk. On the other hand, those who failed to be diagnosed and thus unable to begin hearing and speech rehabilitations on a timely manner might lose an important opportunity to live a complete and healthy life. Eventually, the lack of hearing and speaking ability will affect the development of both mental and physical functions, intelligence, and social adaptability. Not only will this problem result in an irreparable regret to the hearing-impaired child for the life time, but also create a heavy burden for the family and society. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a set of computer-assisted predictive model that can accurately detect and help diagnose newborn hearing loss so that early interventions can be provided timely to eliminate waste of medical resources. This study uses information from the neonatal database of the case hospital as the subjects, adopting two different analysis methods of using support vector machine (SVM) for model predictions and using logistic regression to conduct factor screening prior to model predictions in SVM to examine the results. The results indicate that prediction accuracy is as high as 96.43% when the factors are screened and selected through logistic regression. Hence, the model constructed in this study will have real help in clinical diagnosis for the physicians and actually beneficial to the early interventions of newborn hearing impairment.

Keywords: Data mining, Hearing impairment, Logistic regression analysis, Support vector machines

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Authors: Asif Mansoor, Nasiruddin Khan, Noreen Jamil

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In this communication a quantitative modeling approach is applied to construct model for the exchange of gases from open sewer channel to the atmosphere. The data for the exchange of gases of the open sewer channel for the year January 1979 to December 2006 is utilized for the construction of the model. The study reveals that stream flow of the open sewer channel exchanges the toxic gases continuously with time varying scale. We find that the quantitative modeling approach is more parsimonious model for these exchanges. The usual diagnostic tests are applied for the model adequacy. This model is beneficial for planner and managerial bodies for the improvement of implemented policies to overcome future environmental problems.

Keywords: Open sewer channel, Industrial waste, Municipalwaste, Gases exchange, Atmosphere, Stochastic models, Diagnosticschecks.

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Authors: Justinian Anatory

Abstract:

power-line networks are promise infrastructure for broadband services provision to end users. However, the network performance is affected by stochastic channel changing which is due to load impedances, number of branches and branched line lengths. It has been proposed that multi-carrier modulations techniques such as orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM), Multi-Carrier Spread Spectrum (MC-SS), wavelet OFDM can be used in such environment. This paper investigates the performance of different indoor topologies of power-line networks that uses MC-SS modulation scheme.It is observed that when a branch is added in the link between sending and receiving end of an indoor channel an average of 2.5dB power loss is found. In additional, when the branch is added at a node an average of 1dB power loss is found. Additionally when the terminal impedances of the branch change from line characteristic impedance to impedance either higher or lower values the channel performances were tremendously improved. For example changing terminal load from characteristic impedance (85 .) to 5 . the signal to noise ratio (SNR) required to attain the same performances were decreased from 37dB to 24dB respectively. Also, changing the terminal load from channel characteristic impedance (85 .) to very higher impedance (1600 .) the SNR required to maintain the same performances were decreased from 37dB to 23dB. The result concludes that MC-SS performs better compared with OFDM techniques in all aspects and especially when the channel is terminated in either higher or lower impedances.

Keywords: Communication channel model; Broadband Powerlinecommunication; Branched network; OFDM; Delay Spread, MCSS;impulsive noise; load impedance

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Authors: Ahmed Ashraf Khamis, Sherif A. Ibrahim, Mahmoud ElKhatieb, Mohamed A. Barakat

Abstract:

Parametric design deemed to be one of icons of the modern architectural trends that facilitates taking complex design decisions counting on altering various design parameters. Double skin façades are one of the parametric applications that are used in parametric designs. This paper opts to enhance different daylight parameters of a selected case study office building in Cairo using a parametric double skin façade. First, the design and optimization process was executed utilizing Grasshopper parametric design software package, in which the daylighting performance of the base case building model was compared with the one used in the double façade showing an enhancement in task plane illuminance by 180%. Second, execution drawings are made for the optimized design using Revit software. Finally, computerized digital fabrication stages of the designed model with various scales are demonstrated to reach the final design decisions using Simplify 3D for mock-up digital fabrication.

Keywords: Parametric design, Double skin façades, Digital Fabrication, Grasshopper, Simplify 3D.

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Authors: Seong-Su Jeon, Seong-Jin Kim, Goon-Cherl Park

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In this study, direct numerical simulation for the bubble condensation in the subcooled boiling flow was performed. The main goal was to develop the CFD modeling for the bubble condensation and to evaluate the accuracy of the VOF model with the developed CFD modeling. CFD modeling for the bubble condensation was developed by modeling the source terms in the governing equations of VOF model using UDF. In the modeling, the amount of condensation was determined using the interfacial heat transfer coefficient obtained from the bubble velocity, liquid temperature and bubble diameter every time step. To evaluate the VOF model using the CFD modeling for the bubble condensation, CFD simulation results were compared with SNU experimental results such as bubble volume and shape, interfacial area, bubble diameter and bubble velocity. Simulation results predicted well the behavior of the actual condensing bubble. Therefore, it can be concluded that the VOF model using the CFD modeling for the bubble condensation will be a useful computational fluid dynamics tool for analyzing the behavior of the condensing bubble in a wide range of the subcooled boiling flow.

Keywords: Bubble condensation, CFD modeling, Subcooled boiling flow, VOF model.

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Authors: Wooyoung Jung, Minho Kwon, Jinsup Kim, Buseog Ju

Abstract:

Numerous experimental tests for post-installed anchor systems drilled in hardened concrete were conducted in order to estimate pull-out and shear strength accounting for uncertainties such as torque ratios, embedment depths and different diameters in demands. In this study, the strength of the systems was significantly changed by the effect of those three uncertainties during pull-out experimental tests, whereas the shear strength of the systems was not affected by torque ratios. It was also shown that concrete cone failure or damage mechanism was generally investigated during and after pull-out tests and in shear strength tests, mostly the anchor systems were failed prior to failure of primary structural system. Furthermore, 3D finite element model for the anchor systems was created by ABAQUS for the numerical analysis. The verification of finite element model was identical till the failure points to the load-displacement relationship specified by the experimental tests.

Keywords: Post-installed anchor, Pull-out test, Shear test, Torque , ABAQUS.

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Authors: Jin Sung Kim, Hoon Huh

Abstract:

The material properties of OFHC copper film was investigated with the High-Speed Material Micro Testing Machine (HSMMTM) at the high strain rates. The rate-dependent stress-strain curves from the experiment and the Johnson−Cook curve fitting showed large discrepancies as the plastic strain increases since the constitutive model implies no rate-dependent strain hardening effect. A new constitutive model was proposed in consideration of rate-dependent strain hardening effect. The strain rate hardening term in the new constitutive model consists of the strain rate sensitivity coefficients of the yield strength and strain hardening.

Keywords: Rate dependent material properties, Dynamic constitutive model, OFHC copper film, Strain rate.

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Authors: Noor Ul Ain Bhatti, M. Junaid Khan, Javed Ahmad, Murtaza Saleem, Shahid M. Ramay, Saadat A. Siddiqi

Abstract:

Manganese oxide is being recently used as electrode material for rechargeable batteries. In this study, Al incorporated Mn₂O₃ compositions were synthesized to study the effect of Al doping on electrochemical performance of host material. Structural studies were carried out using X-ray diffraction analysis to confirm the phase stability and explore the lattice parameters, crystallite size, lattice strain, density and cell volume. Morphology and composition were analyzed using field emission scanning electron microscope and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, respectively. Dynamic light scattering analysis was performed to observe the average particle size of the compositions. FTIR measurements exhibit the O-Al-O and O-Mn-O and Al-O bonding and with increasing the concentration of Al, the vibrational peaks of Mn-O become sharper. An enhanced electrochemical performance was observed in compositions with higher Al content.

Keywords: Mn2O3, electrode materials, energy storage and conversion, electrochemical performance.

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Authors: H. Rafiei, M. Rabbani

Abstract:

A novel concept to balance and tradeoff between make-to-stock and make-to-order has been hybrid MTS/MTO production context. One of the most important decisions involved in the hybrid MTS/MTO environment is determining whether a product is manufactured to stock, to order, or hybrid MTS/MTO strategy. In this paper, a model based on analytic network process is developed to tackle the addressed decision. Since the regarded decision deals with the uncertainty and ambiguity of data as well as experts- and managers- linguistic judgments, the proposed model is equipped with fuzzy sets theory. An important attribute of the model is its generality due to diverse decision factors which are elicited from the literature and developed by the authors. Finally, the model is validated by applying to a real case study to reveal how the proposed model can actually be implemented.

Keywords: Fuzzy analytic network process, Hybrid make-tostock/ make-to-order, Order partitioning, Production planning.

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Authors: M. S. Al-Qurashi

Abstract:

This work examines thermal convection in two porous layers. Flow in the upper layer is governed by Brinkman-s equations model and in the lower layer is governed by Darcy-s model. Legendre polynomials are used to obtain numerical solution when the lower layer is heated from below.

Keywords: Brinkman's law, Darcy's law, porous layers, Legendre polynomials, the Oberbeck-Boussineq approximation.

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Authors: Aymen Rhouma, Khaled Hcheichi, Sami Hafsi

Abstract:

The article presents an application of Fractional Model Predictive Control (FMPC) to a fractional order thermal system using Controlled Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (CARIMA) model obtained by discretization of a continuous fractional differential equation. Moreover, the output deviation approach is exploited to design the K -step ahead output predictor, and the corresponding control law is obtained by solving a quadratic cost function. Experiment results onto a thermal system are presented to emphasize the performances and the effectiveness of the proposed predictive controller.

Keywords: Fractional model predictive control, fractional order systems, thermal system.

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Authors: J. P. Dubois

Abstract:

This paper reports the feasibility of the ARMA model to describe a bursty video source transmitting over a AAL5 ATM link (VBR traffic). The traffic represents the activity of the action movie "Lethal Weapon 3" transmitted over the ATM network using the Fore System AVA-200 ATM video codec with a peak rate of 100 Mbps and a frame rate of 25. The model parameters were estimated for a single video source and independently multiplexed video sources. It was found that the model ARMA (2, 4) is well-suited for the real data in terms of average rate traffic profile, probability density function, autocorrelation function, burstiness measure, and the pole-zero distribution of the filter model.

Keywords: ARMA, ATM networks, burstiness, multimediatraffic, VBR video.

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Authors: P. Srinivas, P. V. N. Prasad

Abstract:

Since torque ripple is the main cause of noise and vibrations, the performance of Switched Reluctance Motor (SRM) can be improved by minimizing its torque ripple using a novel control technique called Direct Torque Control (DTC). In DTC technique, torque is controlled directly through control of magnitude of the flux and change in speed of the stator flux vector. The flux and torque are maintained within set hysteresis bands.

The DTC of SRM is analyzed by two methods. In one method, the actual torque is computed by conducting Finite Element Analysis (FEA) on the design specifications of the motor. In the other method, the torque is computed by Simplified Torque Equation. The variation of peak current, average current, torque ripple and speed settling time with Simplified Torque Equation model is compared with FEA based model.

Keywords: Direct Toque Control, Simplified Torque Equation, Finite Element Analysis, Torque Ripple.

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Authors: Shinpei Ogata, Yoshitaka Aoki, Hirotaka Okuda, Saeko Matsuura

Abstract:

A key to success of high quality software development is to define valid and feasible requirements specification. We have proposed a method of model-driven requirements analysis using Unified Modeling Language (UML). The main feature of our method is to automatically generate a Web user interface mock-up from UML requirements analysis model so that we can confirm validity of input/output data for each page and page transition on the system by directly operating the mock-up. This paper proposes a support method to check the validity of a data life cycle by using a model checking tool “UPPAAL" focusing on CRUD (Create, Read, Update and Delete). Exhaustive checking improves the quality of requirements analysis model which are validated by the customers through automatically generated mock-up. The effectiveness of our method is discussed by a case study of requirements modeling of two small projects which are a library management system and a supportive sales system for text books in a university.

Keywords: CRUD, Model Checking, Model Driven Development, Requirements Analysis, Unified Modeling Language, UPPAAL.

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Authors: Xiaohui Han, Yuhan Wang, Jing Shi

Abstract:

This paper proposed a stiffness analysis method for a 3-PRS mechanism for welding thick aluminum plate using FSW technology. In the molding process, elastic deformation of lead-screws and links are taken into account. This method is based on the virtual work principle. Through a survey of the commonly used stiffness performance indices, the minimum and maximum eigenvalues of the stiffness matrix are used to evaluate the stiffness of the 3-PRS mechanism. Furthermore, A FEA model has been constructed to verify the method. Finally, we redefined the workspace using the stiffness analysis method.

Keywords: 3-PRS, parallel mechanism, stiffness analysis, workspace.

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Authors: B. Gangloff, L. Mayoral, A. Rezrazi

Abstract:

Three types of salary distribution are usually proposed by the theorists of distributive justice: Equality, equity and need. Their influence has been studied, taking into consideration (in terms of equity) the performance of the employees and their degree of allegiance/rebellion in what regards discriminatory hierarchical orders, by taking into account the reasons of such allegiance/rebellion (allegiance out of conviction, legalism or opportunism/ethical rebellion). Conducted in Argentina, the study has confronted 480 students (240 male and 240 female) with a practical case in which they had to advise a manager of a real estate agency on the allocation of a bonus amongst his employees. The latter were characterized according to their respective performance, one of them being further defined as being (or not) in a financial need and as having complied (or not) with a discriminatory hierarchical order regarding foreigners. The results show that the distribution of the bonus only follows the rules of equity and need: The employees more efficient, allegiant or in need, are rewarded more than the others. It is also noteworthy that the allegiant employees are rewarded in the same way, regardless of the reason for their allegiance, and that the employee who refuses to adopt a discriminatory conduct is penalized.

Keywords: Distributive justice, equity, performance, allegiance, ethic.

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Authors: T. Watanabe

Abstract:

Combustion analysis of suspended sodium droplet is performed by solving numerically the Navier-Stokes equations and the energy conservation equations. The combustion model consists of the pre-ignition and post-ignition models. The reaction rate for the pre-ignition model is based on the chemical kinetics, while that for the post-ignition model is based on the mass transfer rate of oxygen. The calculated droplet temperature is shown to be in good agreement with the existing experimental data. The temperature field in and around the droplet is obtained as well as the droplet shape variation, and the present numerical model is confirmed to be effective for the combustion analysis.

Keywords: Combustion, analysis, sodium, droplet.

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Authors: Phumelele P. Kubheka, Pius A. Owolawi, Gbolahan Aiyetoro

Abstract:

Twitter is one of the most popular social media platforms where users share their opinions on different subjects. Twitter can be considered a great source for mining text due to the high volumes of data generated through the platform daily. Many industries such as telecommunication companies can leverage the availability of Twitter data to better understand their markets and make an appropriate business decision. This study performs topic modeling on Twitter data using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). The obtained results are benchmarked with another topic modeling technique, Latent Semantic Indexing (LSI). The study aims to retrieve topics on a Twitter dataset containing user tweets on South African Telcos. Results from this study show that LSI is much faster than LDA. However, LDA yields better results with higher topic coherence by 8% for the best-performing model in this experiment. A higher topic coherence score indicates better performance of the model.

Keywords: Big data, latent Dirichlet allocation, latent semantic indexing, Telco, topic modeling, Twitter.

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Authors: Amin Almasi

Abstract:

Design and evaluation of reciprocating compressors should include a pulsation study. The object is to ensure that predicted pulsation levels meet guidelines to limit vibration, shaking forces, noise, associated pressure drops, horsepower losses and fabrication cost and time to acceptable levels. This paper explains procedures and recommendations to select and size pulsation suppression devices to obtain optimum arrangement in terms of pulsation, vibration, shaking forces, performance, reliability, safety, operation, maintenance and commercial conditions. Model and advanced formulations for pulsation study are presented. The effect of the full fluid dynamic model on the prediction of pulsation waves and resulting frequency spectrum distributions are discussed. Advanced and optimum methods of controlling pulsations are highlighted. Useful recommendations and guidelines for pulsation control, piping pulsation analysis, pulsation vessel design, shaking forces, low pressure drop orifices, pulsation study report and devices to mitigate pulsation and shaking problems are discussed.

Keywords: Pulsation, Reciprocating Compressor.

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Authors: Payam Asadi, Ali Bakhshi

Abstract:

In this study, a frame work for verification of famous seismic codes is utilized. To verify the seismic codes performance, damage quantity of RC frames is compared with the target performance. Due to the randomness property of seismic design and earthquake loads excitation, in this paper, fragility curves are developed. These diagrams are utilized to evaluate performance level of structures which are designed by the seismic codes. These diagrams further illustrate the effect of load combination and reduction factors of codes on probability of damage exceedance. Two types of structures; very high important structures with high ductility and medium important structures with intermediate ductility are designed by different seismic codes. The Results reveal that usually lower damage ratio generate lower probability of exceedance. In addition, the findings indicate that there are buildings with higher quantity of bars which they have higher probability of damage exceedance. Life-cycle cost analysis utilized for comparison and final decision making process.

Keywords: RC frame, fragility curve, performance-base design, life-cycle cost analyses, seismic design codes.

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Authors: Mandla T. Nene, Edgar.Jembere, Matthew O. Adigun, Themba Shezi, Siyabonga S. Cebekhulu

Abstract:

The drastic increase in the usage of SMS technology has led service providers to seek for a solution that enable users of mobile devices to access services through SMSs. This has resulted in the proposal of solutions towards SMS-based service invocation in service oriented environments. However, the dynamic nature of service-oriented environments coupled with sudden load peaks generated by service request, poses performance challenges to infrastructures for supporting SMS-based service invocation. To address this problem we adopt load balancing techniques. A load balancing model with adaptive load balancing and load monitoring mechanisms as its key constructs is proposed. The load balancing model then led to realization of Least Loaded Load Balancing Framework (LLLBF). Evaluation of LLLBF benchmarked with round robin (RR) scheme on the queuing approach showed LLLBF outperformed RR in terms of response time and throughput. However, LLLBF achieved better result in the cost of high processing power.

Keywords: SMS (Short Message Service), LLLBF (Least Loaded Load Balancing Framework), Service Oriented Computing (SOC).

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Authors: A. Muthuramalingam, S. Himavathi

Abstract:

Harmonic pollution and low power factor in power systems caused by power converters have been of great concern. To overcome these problems several converter topologies using advanced semiconductor devices and control schemes have been proposed. This investigation is to identify a low cost, small size, efficient and reliable ac to dc converter to meet the input performance index of UPS. The performance of single phase and three phase ac to dc converter along with various control techniques are studied and compared. The half bridge converter topology with linear current control is identified as most suitable. It is simple, energy efficient because of single switch power loss and transformer-less operation of UPS. The results are validated practically using a prototype built using IGBT and analog controller. The performance for both single and three-phase system is verified. Digital implementation of closed loop control achieves higher reliability. Its cost largely depends on chosen bit precision. The minimal bit precision for optimum converter performance is identified as 16-bit with fixed-point operation. From the investigation and practical implementation it is concluded that half bridge ac – dc converter along with digital linear controller meets the performance index of UPS for single and three phase systems.

Keywords: PFC, energy efficient, half bridge, ac-dc converter, boost topology, linear current control, digital bit precision.

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Authors: Chao Wang, Ting-Zhu Huang, Chen Jia

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a simplified higher-order Markov chain model for multiple categorical data sequences also called as simplified higher-order multivariate Markov chain model.

Keywords: Higher-order multivariate Markov chain model, Categorical data sequences, Multivariate Markov chain.

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Authors: M. Tehranizadeh, E. Shoushtari Rezvani

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Seismic performance of steel moment-resisting frame structures is investigated considering nonlinear soil-structure interaction (SSI) effects. 10-, 15-, and 20-story planar building frames with aspect ratio of 3 are designed in accordance with current building codes. Inelastic seismic demands of the superstructure are considered using concentrated plasticity model. The raft foundation system is designed for different soil types. Beam-on-nonlinear Winkler foundation (BNWF) is used to represent dynamic impedance of the underlying soil. Two sets of pulse-like as well as no-pulse near-fault earthquakes are used as input ground motions. The results show that the reduction in drift demands due to nonlinear SSI is characterized by a more uniform distribution pattern along the height when compared to the fixed-base and linear SSI condition. It is also concluded that beneficial effects of nonlinear SSI on displacement demands is more significant in case of pulse-like ground motions and performance level of the steel moment-resisting frames can be enhanced.

Keywords: Soil-structure interaction, uplifting, soil plasticity, near-fault earthquake, tall building.

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Authors: Alma Lucero Ortiz, Mario Gómez

Abstract:

The purpose of this article is to conduct a theoretical and empirical study in order to analyze how the Supply Chain Management (SCM) and Supply Chain Responsiveness (SCR) affects the competitive advantage of the agrofood sector in 2017, in particular, the exporting companies of berries in Mexico. This work is presented in two parts, as a first part is developed a theoretical analysis of the main studies to measure the variables subject to the study. Subsequently an empirical study is carried out through field work and to process the data a logical econometric model is performed to be able to evaluate the effect of the SCM and SCR on the competitive advantage in the companies exporting berries. The results suggest that the SCM has a positive effect on the competitive advantage of the companies under study, so it is necessary to implement greater practices oriented towards a suitable SCM for the companies to achieve a competitive performance. In the case of SCR, it was found that this variable does not have effect on competitive advantage.

Keywords: Competitive advantage, econometric model, supply chain management, supply chain responsiveness, sustained competitive advantage.

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Authors: Amir Azizi, Amir Yazid b. Ali, Loh Wei Ping, Mohsen Mohammadzadeh

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Uncertainties of a serial production line affect on the production throughput. The uncertainties cannot be prevented in a real production line. However the uncertain conditions can be controlled by a robust prediction model. Thus, a hybrid model including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and multiple polynomial regression, is proposed to model the nonlinear relationship of production uncertainties with throughput. The uncertainties under consideration of this study are demand, breaktime, scrap, and lead-time. The nonlinear relationship of production uncertainties with throughput are examined in the form of quadratic and cubic regression models, where the adjusted R-squared for quadratic and cubic regressions was 98.3% and 98.2%. We optimized the multiple quadratic regression (MQR) by considering the time series trend of the uncertainties using ARIMA model. Finally the hybrid model of ARIMA and MQR is formulated by better adjusted R-squared, which is 98.9%.

Keywords: ARIMA, multiple polynomial regression, production throughput, uncertainties

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