Search results for: Reduced order model

Authors: P. W. C. Prasad, A. Assi, M. Raseen, A. Harb

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The goal of this work is to describe a new algorithm for finding the optimal variable order, number of nodes for any order and other ROBDD parameters, based on a tabular method. The tabular method makes use of a pre-built backend database table that stores the ROBDD size for selected combinations of min-terms. The user uses the backend table and the proposed algorithm to find the necessary ROBDD parameters, such as best variable order, number of nodes etc. Experimental results on benchmarks are given for this technique.

Keywords: Tabular Method, Binary Decision Diagram, BDD Manipulation, Boolean Function.

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Authors: Ahmed H. Amer, A. Amar, Sh. Hamada, I. I. Bondouk

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Elastic scattering of Protons and deuterons from ¹¹B nuclei at different p, d energies have been analyzed within the framework of optical model code (ECIS88). The elastic scattering of ³He+¹¹B nuclear system at different ³He energies have been analyzed using double folding model code (FRESCO). The real potential obtained from the folding model was supplemented by a phenomenological imaginary potential, and during the fitting process the real potential was normalized and the imaginary potential optimized. Volumetric integrals of the real and imaginary potential depths (J_R, J_W) have been calculated for ³He+¹¹B system. The agreement between the experimental data and the theoretical calculations in the whole angular range is fairly good. Normalization factor N_r is calculated in the range between 0.70 and 1.236.

Keywords: Elastic scattering, optical model parameters, double folding model, nuclear density distribution.

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Authors: Ahmed I. Shehab, Sabah M. Abdel Basir, M. A. Abdel Khalek, M. H. Soliman, G. Elgemeie

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Spent bleaching earth (SBE) recycling and utilization as an adsorbent to eliminate dyes from aqueous solution was studied. Organic solvents and subsequent thermal treatment were carried out to recover and reactivate the SBE. The effect of pH, temperature, dye’s initial concentration, and contact time on the dye removal using recycled spent bleaching earth (RSBE) was investigated. Recycled SBE showed better removal affinity of cationic than anionic dyes. The maximum removal was achieved at pH 2 and 8 for anionic and cationic dyes, respectively. Kinetic data matched with the pseudo second-order model. The adsorption phenomenon governing this process was identified by the Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms for anionic dye while Freundlich model represented the sorption process for cationic dye. The changes of Gibbs free energy (ΔG°), enthalpy (ΔH°), and entropy (ΔS°) were computed and compared through thermodynamic study for both dyes.

Keywords: Spent bleaching earth, Regeneration, Dye removal, Thermodynamics.

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Authors: Charles Chikwendu Okpala, Christopher Chukwutoo Ihueze

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As a technique that reduces variation in a product by lessening the sensitivity of the design to sources of variation, rather than by controlling their sources, Taguchi Robust Design entails the designing of ideal goods, by developing a product that has minimal variance in its characteristics and also meets the desired exact performance. This paper examined the concept of the manufacturing approach and its application to brake pad product of an automotive parts manufacturing company. Although the firm claimed that only defects, excess inventory, and over-production were the few wastes that grossly affect their productivity and profitability, a careful study and analysis of their manufacturing processes with the application of Single Minute Exchange of Dies (SMED) tool showed that the waste of waiting is the fourth waste that bedevils the firm. The selection of the Taguchi L9 orthogonal array which is based on the four parameters and the three levels of variation for each parameter revealed that with a range of 2.17, that waiting is the major waste that the company must reduce in order to continue to be viable. Also, to enhance the company’s throughput and profitability, the wastes of over-production, excess inventory, and defects with ranges of 2.01, 1.46, and 0.82, ranking second, third, and fourth respectively must also be reduced to the barest minimum. After proposing -33.84 as the highest optimum Signal-to-Noise ratio to be maintained for the waste of waiting, the paper advocated for the adoption of all the tools and techniques of Lean Production System (LPS), and Continuous Improvement (CI), and concluded by recommending SMED in order to drastically reduce set up time which leads to unnecessary waiting.

Keywords: Taguchi Robust Design, signal to noise ratio, Single Minute Exchange of Dies, lean production system, waste.

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Authors: Roza Dastres, Mohsen Soori

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Networks are vulnerable devices due to their basic feature of facilitating remote access and data communication. The information in the networks needs to be kept secured and safe in order to provide an effective communication and sharing device in the web of data. Due to challenges and threats of the data in networks, the network security is one of the most important considerations in information technology infrastructures. As a result, the security measures are considered in the network in order to decrease the probability of accessing the secured data by the hackers. The purpose of network security is to protect the network and its components from unauthorized access and abuse in order to provide a safe and secured communication device for the users. In the present research work a review in recent development of network threats and security measures is presented and future research works are also suggested. Different attacks to the networks and security measured against them are discussed in order to increase security in the web of data. So, new ideas in the network security systems can be presented by analyzing the published papers in order to move forward the research field.

Keywords: Network threats, network security, security measures, firewalls.

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Authors: T. Damak, O. Kriaa, A. Baccar, M. A. Ben Ayed, N. Masmoudi

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In the last few years, Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) systems have become widely used in the safety, the security, and the commercial aspects. Forethought, several methods and techniques are computing to achieve the better levels in terms of accuracy and real time execution. This paper proposed a computer vision algorithm of Number Plate Localization (NPL) and Characters Segmentation (CS). In addition, it proposed an improved method in Optical Character Recognition (OCR) based on Deep Learning (DL) techniques. In order to identify the number of detected plate after NPL and CS steps, the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) algorithm is proposed. A DL model is developed using four convolution layers, two layers of Maxpooling, and six layers of fully connected. The model was trained by number image database on the Jetson TX2 NVIDIA target. The accuracy result has achieved 95.84%.

Keywords: Automatic number plate recognition, character segmentation, convolutional neural network, CNN, deep learning, number plate localization.

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Authors: Y. Djouadi., F. Souam.

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Most of the existing text mining approaches are proposed, keeping in mind, transaction databases model. Thus, the mined dataset is structured using just one concept: the “transaction", whereas the whole dataset is modeled using the “set" abstract type. In such cases, the structure of the whole dataset and the relationships among the transactions themselves are not modeled and consequently, not considered in the mining process. We believe that taking into account structure properties of hierarchically structured information (e.g. textual document, etc ...) in the mining process, can leads to best results. For this purpose, an hierarchical associations rule mining approach for textual documents is proposed in this paper and the classical set-oriented mining approach is reconsidered profits to a Direct Acyclic Graph (DAG) oriented approach. Natural languages processing techniques are used in order to obtain the DAG structure. Based on this graph model, an hierarchical bottom up algorithm is proposed. The main idea is that each node is mined with its parent node.

Keywords: Graph based association rules mining, Hierarchical document structure, Text mining.

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Authors: V. Vicente E. Mujica, Gustavo Gonzalez

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The global coverage of broadband multimedia and internet-based services in terrestrial-satellite networks demand particular interests for satellite providers in order to enhance services with low latencies and high signal quality to diverse users. In particular, the delay of on-board processing is an inherent source of latency in a satellite communication that sometimes is discarded for the end-to-end delay of the satellite link. The frame work for this paper includes modelling of an on-orbit satellite payload using an agent model that can reproduce the properties of processing delays. In essence, a comparison of different spatial interpolation methods is carried out to evaluate physical data obtained by an GEO satellite in order to define a discretization function for determining that delay. Furthermore, the performance of the proposed agent and the development of a delay discretization function are together validated by simulating an hybrid satellite and terrestrial network. Simulation results show high accuracy according to the characteristics of initial data points of processing delay for Ku bands.

Keywords: Terrestrial-satellite networks, latency, on-orbit satellite payload, simulation.

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Authors: Changjin Xu, Peiluan Li

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In this paper, a nonlinear delay population model is investigated. Choosing the delay as a bifurcation parameter, we demonstrate that Hopf bifurcation will occur when the delay exceeds a critical value. Global existence of bifurcating periodic solutions is established. Numerical simulations supporting the theoretical findings are included.

Keywords: Population model, Stability, Hopf bifurcation, Delay, Global Hopf bifurcation.

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Authors: M. S. Gaafar, S. Y. Marzouk

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Sodium borosilicate glasses doped with different content of NdF3 mol % have been prepared by rapid quenching method. Ultrasonic velocities (both longitudinal and shear) measurements have been carried out at room temperature and at ultrasonic frequency of 4 MHz. Elastic moduli, Debye temperature, softening temperature and Poisson's ratio have been obtained as a function of NdF3 modifier content. Results showed that the elastic moduli, Debye temperature, softening temperature and Poisson's ratio have very slight change with the change of NdF3 mol % content. Based on FTIR spectroscopy and theoretical (Bond compression) model, quantitative analysis has been carried out in order to obtain more information about the structure of these glasses. The study indicated that the structure of these glasses is mainly composed of SiO4 units with four bridging oxygens (Q4), and with three bridging and one nonbridging oxygens (Q3).

Keywords: Borosilicate glasses, ultrasonic velocity, elastic moduli, FTIR spectroscopy, bond compression model.

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Authors: O. Hassanein, Sreenatha G. Anavatti, Tapabrata Ray

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The dynamics of the Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) are highly nonlinear and time varying and the hydrodynamic coefficients of vehicles are difficult to estimate accurately because of the variations of these coefficients with different navigation conditions and external disturbances. This study presents the on-line system identification of AUV dynamics to obtain the coupled nonlinear dynamic model of AUV as a black box. This black box has an input-output relationship based upon on-line adaptive fuzzy model and adaptive neural fuzzy network (ANFN) model techniques to overcome the uncertain external disturbance and the difficulties of modelling the hydrodynamic forces of the AUVs instead of using the mathematical model with hydrodynamic parameters estimation. The models- parameters are adapted according to the back propagation algorithm based upon the error between the identified model and the actual output of the plant. The proposed ANFN model adopts a functional link neural network (FLNN) as the consequent part of the fuzzy rules. Thus, the consequent part of the ANFN model is a nonlinear combination of input variables. Fuzzy control system is applied to guide and control the AUV using both adaptive models and mathematical model. Simulation results show the superiority of the proposed adaptive neural fuzzy network (ANFN) model in tracking of the behavior of the AUV accurately even in the presence of noise and disturbance.

Keywords: AUV, AUV dynamic model, fuzzy control, fuzzy modelling, adaptive fuzzy control, back propagation, system identification, neural fuzzy model, FLNN.

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Authors: Chein-Shung Hwang, Ruei-Siang Fong

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User-based Collaborative filtering (CF), one of the most prevailing and efficient recommendation techniques, provides personalized recommendations to users based on the opinions of other users. Although the CF technique has been successfully applied in various applications, it suffers from serious sparsity problems. The cloud-model approach addresses the sparsity problems by constructing the user-s global preference represented by a cloud eigenvector. The user-based CF approach works well with dense datasets while the cloud-model CF approach has a greater performance when the dataset is sparse. In this paper, we present a hybrid approach that integrates the predictions from both the user-based CF and the cloud-model CF approaches. The experimental results show that the proposed hybrid approach can ameliorate the sparsity problem and provide an improved prediction quality.

Keywords: Cloud model, Collaborative filtering, Hybridrecommender system

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Authors: A. A. Purohit, A. Basu, K. A. Chavan, M. D. Kudale

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Many estuarine harbours in the world are facing the problem of siltation in docks, channel entrances, etc. The harbours in India are not an exception and require maintenance dredging to achieve navigable depths for keeping them operable. Hence, dredging is inevitable and is a costly affair. The heavy siltation in docks in well mixed tide dominated estuaries is mainly due to settlement of cohesive sediments in suspension. As such there is a need to have a permanent solution for minimising the siltation in such docks to alter the hydrodynamic flow field responsible for siltation by constructing structures outside the dock. One of such docks on the west coast of India, wherein siltation of about 2.5-3 m/annum prevails, was considered to understand the hydrodynamic flow field responsible for siltation. The dock is situated in such a region where macro type of semi-diurnal tide (range of about 5m) prevails. In order to change the flow field responsible for siltation inside the dock, suitability of Current Deflecting Wall (CDW) outside the dock was studied, which will minimise the sediment exchange rate and siltation in the dock. The well calibrated physical tidal model was used to understand the flow field during various phases of tide for the existing dock in Mumbai harbour. At the harbour entrance where the tidal flux exchanges in/out of the dock, measurements on water level and current were made to estimate the sediment transport capacity. The distorted scaled model (1:400 (H) & 1:80 (V)) of Mumbai area was used to study the tidal flow phenomenon, wherein tides are generated by automatic tide generator. Hydraulic model studies carried out under the existing condition (without CDW) reveal that, during initial hours of flood tide, flow hugs the docks breakwater and part of flow which enters the dock forms number of eddies of varying sizes inside the basin, while remaining part of flow bypasses the entrance of dock. During ebb, flow direction reverses, and part of the flow re-enters the dock from outside and creates eddies at its entrance. These eddies do not allow water/sediment-mass to come out and result in settlement of sediments in dock both due to eddies and more retention of sediment. At latter hours, current strength outside the dock entrance reduces and allows the water-mass of dock to come out. In order to improve flow field inside the dockyard, two CDWs of length 300 m and 40 m were proposed outside the dock breakwater and inline to Pier-wall at dock entrance. Model studies reveal that, during flood, major flow gets deflected away from the entrance and no eddies are formed inside the dock, while during ebb flow does not re-enter the dock, and sediment flux immediately starts emptying it during initial hours of ebb. This reduces not only the entry of sediment in dock by about 40% but also the deposition by about 42% due to less retention. Thus, CDW is a promising solution to significantly reduce siltation in dock.

Keywords: Current deflecting wall, eddies, hydraulic model, macro tide, siltation.

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Authors: Benjamin D. Leiby, Darryl K. Ahner

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This study demonstrates an alternative stochastic imputation approach for large datasets when preferred commercial packages struggle to iterate due to numerical problems. A large country conflict dataset motivates the search to impute missing values well over a common threshold of 20% missingness. The methodology capitalizes on correlation while using model residuals to provide the uncertainty in estimating unknown values. Examination of the methodology provides insight toward choosing linear or nonlinear modeling terms. Static tolerances common in most packages are replaced with tailorable tolerances that exploit residuals to fit each data element. The methodology evaluation includes observing computation time, model fit, and the comparison of known  values to replaced values created through imputation. Overall, the country conflict dataset illustrates promise with modeling first-order interactions, while presenting a need for further refinement that mimics predictive mean matching.

Keywords: Correlation, country conflict, imputation, stochastic regression.

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Authors: Kang, Eun Sung, Song, Hyeong Wook, Kim, Hong Kyu

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The purpose of this study is to analyze the visual preference of patterns in pedestrian roads. In this study, animation was applied for the estimation of dynamic streetscape. Six patterns of pedestrian were selected in order to analyze the visual preference. The shapes are straight, s-curve, and zigzag. The ratio of building's height and road's width are 2:1 and 1:1. Twelve adjective pairs used in the field investigation were selected from adjectives which are used usually in the estimation of streetscape. They are interesting-boring, simple-complex, calm-noisy, open-enclosed, active-inactive, lightly-depressing, regular-irregular, unique-usual, rhythmic-not rhythmic, united-not united, stable-unstable, tidy-untidy. Dynamic streetscape must be considered important in pedestrian shopping mall and park because it will be an attraction. So, s-curve pedestrian road, which is the most beautiful as a result of this study, should be designed in this area. Also, the ratio of building's height and road's width along pedestrian road should be reduced.

Keywords: Visual preference, streetscape, animation, simulation, pedestrian.

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Authors: Irtaza M. Syed, Kaamran Raahemifar

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In this paper, we present a comparative assessment of Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation (SVPWM) and Model Predictive Control (MPC) for two-level three phase (2L-3P) Voltage Source Inverter (VSI). VSI with associated system is subjected to both control techniques and the results are compared. Matlab/Simulink was used to model, simulate and validate the control schemes. Findings of this study show that MPC is superior to SVPWM in terms of total harmonic distortion (THD) and implementation.

Keywords: Model Predictive Control, Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation, Voltage Source Inverter.

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Authors: U. P. L. Wijayarathne, K. C. Wasalathilake

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This work presents the modelling and simulation of saponification of ethyl acetate in the presence of sodium hydroxide in a plug flow reactor using Aspen Plus simulation software. Plug flow reactors are widely used in the industry due to the non-mixing property. The use of plug flow reactors becomes significant when there is a need for continuous large scale reaction or fast reaction. Plug flow reactors have a high volumetric unit conversion as the occurrence for side reactions is minimum. In this research Aspen Plus V8.0 has been successfully used to simulate the plug flow reactor. In order to simulate the process as accurately as possible HYSYS Peng- Robinson EOS package was used as the property method. The results obtained from the simulation were verified by the experiment carried out in the EDIBON plug flow reactor module. The correlation coefficient (r2) was 0.98 and it proved that simulation results satisfactorily fit for the experimental model. The developed model can be used as a guide for understanding the reaction kinetics of a plug flow reactor.

Keywords: Aspen Plus, Modelling, Plug Flow Reactor, Simulation.

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Authors: Wen-Hsiang Lai, Nguyen Quang Vinh

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In order to explore the relationship of promotion activities, destination attribute and destination image of Vietnam and find possible solutions, this study uses decision system analysis (DSA) method to develop flowcharts based on three rounds of expert interviews. The interviews were conducted with the experts who were confirmed to directly participate or influence on the decision making that drives the promotion of Vietnam tourism process. This study identifies three models and describes specific decisions on promotion activities, destination attributes and destination images. This study finally derives a general model for promoting the Tourism Industrial Service Network (TISN) in Vietnam. This study finds that the coordination with all sectors and industries of tourism to facilitate favorable condition and improving destination attributes in linking with the efficient promotion activities is highly recommended in order to make visitors satisfied and improve the destination image.

Keywords: Destination attributes, Destination image, Decision system analysis, Tourism promotion

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Authors: D. He, Y. Pang, G. Lodewijks

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Belt conveyors play an important role in continuous dry bulk material transport, especially at the mining industry. Speed control is expected to reduce the energy consumption of belt conveyors. Transient operation is the operation of increasing or decreasing conveyor speed for speed control. According to literature review, current research rarely takes the conveyor dynamics in transient operation into account. However, in belt conveyor speed control, the conveyor dynamic behaviors are significantly important since the poor dynamics might result in risks. In this paper, the potential risks in transient operation will be analyzed. An existing finite element model will be applied to build a conveyor model, and simulations will be carried out to analyze the conveyor dynamics. In order to realize the soft speed regulation, Harrison’s sinusoid acceleration profile will be applied, and Lodewijks estimator will be built to approximate the required acceleration time. A long inclined belt conveyor will be studied with two major simulations. The conveyor dynamics will be given.

Keywords: Belt conveyor, speed control, transient operation, dynamics

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Authors: Nadiah Yola Putri, Nesia Putri Sharfina, Traviata Prakarti

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This paper is a literature review presented descriptively to review the concept of green building to face the challenge of sustainable development and food in urban areas. In this paper, researchers initiated the concept of green building with sky farming method. Sky farming use vertical landscape system in order to realizing food self-sufficient green city. Sky farming relying on plantings and irrigation system efficiency in the building which is adopted the principles of green building. Planting system is done by applying hydroponic plants with Nutrient Film Technique (NFT) using energy source of solar cell and grey water from the processing of waste treatment plant. The application of sky farming in urban areas can be a recommendation for the design of environmental-friendly construction. In order to keep the land and distance efficiency, this system is a futuristic idea that would be the connector of human civilization in the future.

Keywords: Green building, urban area, sky farming, vertical landscape.

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Authors: H. Ahmed, A. Schlenkhoff

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Recently, permeable breakwaters have been suggested to overcome the disadvantages of fully protection breakwaters. These protection structures have minor impacts on the coastal environment and neighboring beaches where they provide a more economical protection from waves and currents. For regular waves, a numerical model is used (FLOW-3D, VOF) to investigate the hydraulic performance of a permeable breakwater. The model of permeable breakwater consists of a pair of identical vertical slotted walls with an impermeable upper and lower part, where the draft is a decimal multiple of the total depth. The middle part is permeable with a porosity of 50%. The second barrier is located at distant of 0.5 and 1.5 of the water depth from the first one. The numerical model is validated by comparisons with previous laboratory data and semi-analytical results of the same model. A good agreement between the numerical results and both laboratory data and semi-analytical results has been shown and the results indicate the applicability of the numerical model to reproduce most of the important features of the interaction. Through the numerical investigation, the friction factor of the model is carefully discussed.

Keywords: Coastal structures, permeable breakwater, slotted wall, numerical model, energy dissipation coefficient.

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Authors: F. Barzegar, M. H. Sheikhi

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In the present work we model a Multiquantum Well structure Separate Absorption and Charge Multiplication Avalanche Photodiode (MQW-SACM-APD), while the Absorption region coincide with the MQW. We consider the nonuniformity of electric field using split-step method in active region. This model is based on the carrier rate equations in the different regions of the device. Using the model we obtain the photocurrent, and dark current. As an example, InGaAs/InP SACM-APD and MQW-SACM-APD are simulated. There is a good agreement between the simulation and experimental results.

Keywords: Avalanche Photodiode, Physical Model, MultiquantumWell, Split Step Method.

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Authors: Mohammadreza Nezamirad, Sepideh Amirahmadian, Nasim Sabetpour, Azadeh Yazdi, Amirmasoud Hamedi

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Cavitation inside a diesel injector nozzle is investigated numerically in this study. The Reynolds Stress Navier Stokes set of equations (RANS) are utilized to investigate flow behavior inside the nozzle numerically. Moreover, K-ε turbulent model is found to be a better approach comparing to K-ω turbulent model. The Winklhofer rectangular shape nozzle is also simulated in order to verify the current numerical scheme, and with the mass flow rate approach, the current solution is verified. Afterward, a six-hole real size nozzle was simulated and it was found that among the different fuels used in this study with the same condition, diesel fuel provides the largest length of cavitation. Also, it was found that at the same boundary condition, rapeseed methyl ester (RME) fuel leads to the highest value of discharge coefficient and mass flow rate.

Keywords: cavitation, diesel fuel, CFD, real size nozzle, discharge coefficient

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Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović

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Due to the importance of yield curve and its estimation it is inevitable to have valid methods for yield curve forecasting in cases when there are scarce issues of securities and/or week trade on a secondary market. Therefore in this paper, after the estimation of weekly yield curves on Croatian financial market from October 2011 to August 2012 using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models, yield curves are forecasted using Vector autoregressive model and Neural networks. In general, it can be concluded that both forecasting methods have good prediction abilities where forecasting of yield curves based on Nelson Siegel estimation model give better results in sense of lower Mean Squared Error than forecasting based on Svensson model Also, in this case Neural networks provide slightly better results. Finally, it can be concluded that most appropriate way of yield curve prediction is Neural networks using Nelson-Siegel estimation of yield curves.

Keywords: Nelson-Siegel model, Neural networks, Svensson model, Vector autoregressive model, Yield curve.

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Authors: Meenakshi Goyal, Rashmi Dhawan

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Adsorption of CS2 vapors has been studied on different types of activated carbons obtained from different source raw materials. The activated carbons have different surface areas and are associated with varying amounts of the carbon-oxygen surface groups. The adsorption of CS2 vapors is not directly related to surface area, but is considerably influenced by the presence of carbonoxygen surface groups. The adsorption decreases on increasing the amount of carbon-oxygen surface groups on oxidation and increases when these surface groups are eliminated on degassing. The adsorption is maximum in case of the 950°-degassed carbon sample which is almost completely free of any associated oxygen. The kinetic data as analysed by Empirical diffusion model and Linear driving force mass transfer model indicate that the adsorption does not involve Fickian diffusion but may be considered as a pseudo first order mass transfer process. The activation energy of adsorption and isosteric enthalpies of adsorption indicate that the adsorption does not involve interaction between CS2 and carbon-oxygen surface groups, but hydrophobic interactions between CS2 and C-C atoms in the carbon lattice.

Keywords: Adsorption, surface groups, adsorption kinetics, isosteric enthalpy of adsorption.

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Authors: Sergio Perez Rodriguez

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Findings of a production model of Artisanal and Small-Scale Mining (ASM) of coltan ore by an average Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) mineworker are presented in this paper. These can be used as a reference for a similar characterization of the daily labor of counterparts from other countries in the Africa's Great Lakes region. To that end, the Fundamental Equation of Mineral Production has been applied in this paper, considering a miner's average daily output of coltan, estimated in the base of gross statistical data gathered from reputable sources. Results indicate daily yields of individual miners in the order of 300 g of coltan ore, with hourly peaks of production in the range of 30 to 40 g of the mineral. Yields are expected to be in the order of 5 g or less during the least productive hours. These outputs are expected to be achieved during the halves of the eight to 10 hours of daily working sessions that these artisanal laborers can attend during the mining season.

Keywords: Coltan, mineral production, Production to Reserve ratio, artisanal mining, small-scale mining, ASM, human work, Great Lakes region, Democratic Republic of Congo.

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Authors: S. Wongkoon, M. Pollar, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee

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This study aimed at developing a forecasting model on the number of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) incidence in Northern Thailand using time series analysis. We developed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the data collected between 2003-2006 and then validated the models using the data collected between January-September 2007. The results showed that the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values. The most suitable model was the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model with a Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 12.2931 and a Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) of 8.91713. The SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model fitting was adequate for the data with the Portmanteau statistic Q20 = 8.98644 ( x20,95= 27.5871, P>0.05). This indicated that there was no significant autocorrelation between residuals at different lag times in the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model.

Keywords: Dengue, SARIMA, Time Series Analysis, Northern Thailand.

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Authors: Masato Nishi, Tetsushi Kaburagi, Masashi Kurose, Tei Hirashima, Tetsusei Kurasiki

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The process of thermoforming a carbon fiber reinforced thermoplastic (CFRTP) has increased its presence in the automotive industry for its wide applicability to the mass production car. A non-isothermal forming for CFRTP can shorten its cycle time to less than 1 minute. In this paper, the textile reinforcement FE model which the authors proposed in a previous work is extended to the CFRTP model for non-isothermal forming simulation. The effect of thermoplastic is given by adding shell elements which consider thermal effect to the textile reinforcement model. By applying Reuss model to the stress calculation of thermoplastic, the proposed model can accurately predict in-plane shear behavior, which is the key deformation mode during forming, in the range of the process temperature. Using the proposed model, thermoforming simulation was conducted and the results are in good agreement with the experimental results.

Keywords: Carbon fiber reinforced thermoplastic (CFRTP), Finite element analysis (FEA), Pre-impregnated textile composite, Non-isothermal forming.

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Authors: G. Santamato, M. Solazzi, A. Frisoli

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Systems for detection of damages in railway pantographs effectively reduce the cost of maintenance and improve time scheduling. In this paper, we present an approach to design a monitoring tool fitting strong customer requirements such as portability and ease of use. Pantograph has been modeled to estimate its dynamical properties, since no data are available. With the aim to focus on suspensions health, a two Degrees of Freedom (DOF) scheme has been adopted. Parameters have been calculated by means of analytical dynamics. A Finite Element Method (FEM) modal analysis verified the former model with an acceptable error. The detection strategy seeks phase-plots topology alteration, induced by defects. In order to test the suitability of the method, leakage in the dashpot was simulated on the lumped model. Results are interesting because changes in phase plots are more appreciable than frequency-shift. Further calculations as well as experimental tests will support future developments of this smart strategy.

Keywords: Pantograph models, phase-plots, structural health monitoring, vibration-based condition monitoring.

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Authors: Moustafa S. El-Sammany

Abstract:

Flash floods are considered natural disasters that can cause casualties and demolishing of infra structures. The problem is that flash floods, particularly in arid and semi arid zones, take place in very short time. So, it is important to forecast flash floods earlier to its events with a lead time up to 48 hours to give early warning alert to avoid or minimize disasters. The flash flood took place over Wadi Watier - Sinai Peninsula, in October 24th, 2008, has been simulated, investigated and analyzed using the state of the art regional weather model. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, which is a reliable short term forecasting tool for precipitation events, has been utilized over the study area. The model results have been calibrated with the real data, for the same date and time, of the rainfall measurements recorded at Sorah gauging station. The WRF model forecasted total rainfall of 11.6 mm while the real measured one was 10.8 mm. The calibration shows significant consistency between WRF model and real measurements results.

Keywords: Early warning system, Flash floods forecasting, WadiWatier, WRF model.

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