Search results for: anthropogenic and natural sources

Authors: Sabrina Azzi, Michal Iglewski, Véronique Nabelsi

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Diagnosis error problem is frequent and one of the most important safety problems today. One of the main objectives of our work is to propose an ontological representation that takes into account the diagnostic criteria in order to improve the diagnostic. We choose pneumonia disease since it is one of the frequent diseases affected by diagnosis errors and have harmful effects on patients. To achieve our aim, we use a semi-automated method to integrate diverse knowledge sources that include publically available pneumonia disease guidelines from international repositories, biomedical ontologies and electronic health records. We follow the principles of the Open Biomedical Ontologies (OBO) Foundry. The resulting ontology covers symptoms and signs, all the types of pneumonia, antecedents, pathogens, and diagnostic testing. The first evaluation results show that most of the terms are covered by the ontology. This work is still in progress and represents a first and major step toward a development of a diagnosis decision support system for pneumonia.

Keywords: Clinical decision support system, diagnostic errors, ontology, pneumonia.

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Authors: J. Satonsaowapak, M. Krapeedang, R. Oonsivilai, A. Oonsivilai

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The utilize of renewable energy sources becomes more crucial and fascinatingly, wider application of renewable energy devices at domestic, commercial and industrial levels is not only affect to stronger awareness but also significantly installed capacities. Moreover, biomass principally is in form of woods and converts to be energy for using by humans for a long time. Gasification is a process of conversion of solid carbonaceous fuel into combustible gas by partial combustion. Many gasified models have various operating conditions because the parameters kept in each model are differentiated. This study applied the experimental data including three inputs variables including biomass consumption; temperature at combustion zone and ash discharge rate and gas flow rate as only one output variable. In this paper, response surface methods were applied for identification of the gasified system equation suitable for experimental data. The result showed that linear model gave superlative results.

Keywords: Gasified System, Identification, Response SurfaceMethod

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Authors: S. R. Shamili, J. Karthikeyan

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Fast development of the total populace and far and wide urbanization has surprisingly expanded the advancement of the construction industry. As a result of these activities, old structures are being demolished to make new buildings. Due to these large-scale demolitions, a huge amount of debris is generated all over the world, which results in a landfill. The use of construction and demolition waste as landfill causes groundwater contamination, which is hazardous. Using construction and demolition waste as aggregate can reduce the use of natural aggregates and the problem of mining. The objective of this study is to provide a detailed overview on how the construction and demolition waste material has been used as aggregate in structural concrete. In this study, the preparation, classification, and composition of construction and demolition wastes are also discussed.

Keywords: Aggregate, construction and demolition waste, landfill, large scale demolition.

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Authors: Anouar Ben Khalifa, Sami Gazzah, Najoua Essoukri BenAmara

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Multimodal biometric systems integrate the data presented by multiple biometric sources, hence offering a better performance than the systems based on a single biometric modality. Although the coupling of biometric systems can be done at different levels, the fusion at the scores level is the most common since it has been proven effective than the rest of the fusion levels. However, the scores from different modalities are generally heterogeneous. A step of normalizing the scores is needed to transform these scores into a common domain before combining them. In this paper, we study the performance of several normalization techniques with various fusion methods in a context relating to the merger of three unimodal systems based on the face, the palmprint and the fingerprint. We also propose a new adaptive normalization method that takes into account the distribution of client scores and impostor scores. Experiments conducted on a database of 100 people show that the performances of a multimodal system depend on the choice of the normalization method and the fusion technique. The proposed normalization method has given the best results.

Keywords: Multibiometrics, Fusion, Score level, Score normalization, Adaptive normalization.

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Authors: Samina Elyas Mubeen, R. K. Nema, Gayatri Agnihotri

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In this paper the performance of unified power flow controller is investigated in controlling the flow of po wer over the transmission line. Voltage sources model is utilized to study the behaviour of the UPFC in regulating the active, reactive power and voltage profile. This model is incorporated in Newton Raphson algorithm for load flow studies. Simultaneous method is employed in which equations of UPFC and the power balance equations of network are combined in to one set of non-linear algebraic equations. It is solved according to the Newton raphson algorithm. Case studies are carried on standard 5 bus network. Simulation is done in Matlab. The result of network with and without using UPFC are compared in terms of active and reactive power flows in the line and active and reactive power flows at the bus to analyze the performance of UPFC.

Keywords: Newton-Raphson algorithm, Load flow, Unified power flow controller, Voltage source model.

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Authors: Md. Aminul Islam, Adel Merabet, Rachid Beguenane, Hussein Ibrahim

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This paper presents a simulation and mathematical model of stand-alone solar-wind-diesel based hybrid energy system (HES). A power management system is designed for multiple energy resources in a stand-alone hybrid energy system. Both Solar photovoltaic and wind energy conversion system consists of maximum power point tracking (MPPT), voltage regulation, and basic power electronic interfaces. An additional diesel generator is included to support and improve the reliability of stand-alone system when renewable energy sources are not available. A power management strategy is introduced to distribute the generated power among resistive load banks. The frequency regulation is developed with conventional phase locked loop (PLL) system. The power management algorithm was applied in Matlab^®/Simulink^® to simulate the results.

Keywords: Solar photovoltaic, wind energy, diesel engine, hybrid energy system, power management, frequency and voltage regulation.

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Authors: Ju-Hong Lee, Ching-Wei Liao, Kun-Che Lee

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This paper deals with the problem of using antenna sensors for adaptive beamforming in the presence of random steering mismatch. We present an efficient adaptive array beamformer with robustness to deal with the considered problem. The robustness of the proposed beamformer comes from the efficient designation of the steering vector. Using the received array data vector, we construct an appropriate correlation matrix associated with the received array data vector and a correlation matrix associated with signal sources. Then, the eigenvector associated with the largest eigenvalue of the constructed signal correlation matrix is designated as an appropriate estimate of the steering vector. Finally, the adaptive weight vector required for adaptive beamforming is obtained by using the estimated steering vector and the constructed correlation matrix of the array data vector. Simulation results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Adaptive beamforming, antenna array, linearly constrained minimum variance, robustness, steering vector.

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Authors: R. Bremananth, Andy W. H. Khong, A. Chitra

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Visualizing sound and noise often help us to determine an appropriate control over the source localization. Near-field acoustic holography (NAH) is a powerful tool for the ill-posed problem. However, in practice, due to the small finite aperture size, the discrete Fourier transform, FFT based NAH couldn-t predict the activeregion- of-interest (AROI) over the edges of the plane. Theoretically few approaches were proposed for solving finite aperture problem. However most of these methods are not quite compatible for the practical implementation, especially near the edge of the source. In this paper, a zip-stuffing extrapolation approach has suggested with 2D Kaiser window. It is operated on wavenumber complex space to localize the predicted sources. We numerically form a practice environment with touch impact databases to test the localization of sound source. It is observed that zip-stuffing aperture extrapolation and 2D window with evanescent components provide more accuracy especially in the small aperture and its derivatives.

Keywords: Acoustic source localization, Near-field acoustic holography (NAH), FFT, Extrapolation, k-space wavenumber errors.

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Authors: F. Gökgöz, M. E. Atmaca

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Electricity has an indispensable role in human daily life, technological development and economy. It is a special product or service that should be instantaneously generated and consumed. Sources of the world are limited so that effective and efficient use of them is very important not only for human life and environment but also for technological and economic development. Competitive electricity market is one of the important way that provides suitable platform for effective and efficient use of electricity. Besides benefits, it brings along some risks that should be carefully managed by a market player like Electricity Generation Company. Risk management is an essential part in market players’ decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is applied with the help of Value at Risk methods for case studies. Performance of optimal electricity sale solutions are measured and the portfolio performance has been evaluated via Sharpe-Ratio, and compared with conventional approach. Biennial historical electricity price data of Turkish Day Ahead Market are used to demonstrate the approach.

Keywords: Electricity market, portfolio optimization, risk management, Sharpe ratio, value at risk.

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Authors: Kumiko Aoki

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Japan is known to be a technological powerhouse, being noted for its automobiles, consumer electronics, laptop computers, portable gaming devices, and more recently healing animal robots. Japan is also noted for its popular culture; manga, anime, novels, films, character goods, game programs, cosplay cafes, karaoke and so on. It may be natural for people outside Japan to assume that e-learning in Japan must be well advanced and innovative. In reality, the application of technologies in education in Japan is far behind of other developed countries. Especially in higher education, apathy of students towards their study prevails and teachers continue ignoring such student attitudes. E-learning, which is supposed to revolutionalize the way people learn as it has potentials to enable more student-centered learning, has not been realized in Japan and mostly used to perpetuate the teachercentered teaching in a different format.

Keywords: e-learning, Higher Education, ICT in Education, Japan

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Authors: Jiaji Zhou, Le Liang, Long Chen

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Geographic Profiling has successfully assisted investigations for serial crimes. Considering the multi-cluster feature of serial criminal spots, we propose a Multi-point Centrography model as a natural extension of Single-point Centrography for geographic profiling. K-means clustering is first performed on the data samples and then Single-point Centrography is adopted to derive a probability distribution on each cluster. Finally, a weighted combinations of each distribution is formed to make next-crime spot prediction. Experimental study on real cases demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposed model.

Keywords: Geographic profiling, Centrography model, K-means algorithm

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Authors: Gabriela Lindemann, Danilo Schmidt, Thomas Schrader, Dietmar Keune

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The amount and heterogeneity of data in biomedical research, notably in interdisciplinary fields, requires new methods for the collection, presentation and analysis of information. Important data from laboratory experiments as well as patient trials are available but come out of distributed resources. The Charité - University Hospital Berlin has established together with the German Research Foundation (DFG) a new information service centre for kidney diseases and transplantation (Open European Nephrology Science Centre - OpEN.SC). Beside a collaborative aspect to create new research groups every single partner or institution of this science information centre making his own data available is allowed to search the whole data pool of the various involved centres. A core task is the implementation of a non-restricting open data structure for the various different data sources. We decided to use a modern RDF model and in a first phase transformed original data coming from the web-based Electronic Patient Record database TBase©.

Keywords: Medical databases, Resource Description Framework (RDF), metadata repository.

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Authors: R. Malisa, E. Schwella, K. I. Theletsane

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Due to climate change, population growth and rapid urbanization, the demand for water in South Africa is inevitably surpassing supply. To address similar challenges globally, there has been a paradigm shift from conventional urban waste water management “government” to a “governance” paradigm. From the governance paradigm, Integrated Urban Water Management (IUWM) principle emerged. This principle emphasizes efficient urban waste water treatment and production of high-quality recyclable effluent. In so doing mimicking natural water systems, in their processes of recycling water efficiently, and averting depletion of natural water resources.  The objective of this study was to investigate drivers of shifting the current urban waste water management approach from a “government” paradigm towards “governance”. The study was conducted through Interactive Management soft systems research methodology which follows a qualitative research design. A case study methodology was employed, guided by realism research philosophy. Qualitative data gathered were analyzed through interpretative structural modelling using Concept Star for Professionals Decision-Making tools (CSPDM) version 3.64.  The constructed model deduced that the main drivers in shifting the Stellenbosch municipal urban waste water management towards IUWM “governance” principles are mainly social elements characterized by overambitious expectations of the public on municipal water service delivery, mis-interpretation of the constitution on access to adequate clean water and sanitation as a human right and perceptions on recycling water by different communities. Inadequate public participation also emerged as a strong driver. However, disruptive events such as draught may play a positive role in raising an awareness on the value of water, resulting in a shift on the perceptions on recycled water. Once the social elements are addressed, the alignment of governance and administration elements towards IUWM are achievable. Hence, the point of departure for the desired paradigm shift is the change of water service authorities and serviced communities’ perceptions and behaviors towards shifting urban waste water management approaches from “government” to “governance” paradigm.

Keywords: Integrated urban water management, urban water system, waste water governance, waste water treatment works.

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Authors: S. Šupić, M. Malešev, V. Radonjanin, M. Radeka, M. Laban

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The production of low cost and environmentally friendly products represents an important step for developing countries. Biomass is one of the largest renewable energy sources, and Serbia is among the top European countries in terms of the amount of available and unused biomass. Substituting cement with the ashes obtained by the combustion of biomass would reduce the negative impact of concrete industry on the environment and would provide a waste valorization by the reuse of this type of by-product in mortars and concretes manufacture. The study contains data on physical properties, chemical characteristics and pozzolanic properties of obtained biomass ashes: wheat straw ash and mixture of wheat and soya straw ash in Serbia, which were, later, used as supplementary cementitious materials in preparation of mortars. Experimental research of influence of biomass ashes on physical and mechanical properties of cement mortars was conducted. The results indicate that the biomass ashes can be successfully used in mortars as substitutes of cement without compromising their physical and mechanical performances.

Keywords: Biomass, ash, cementitious material, mortar.

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Authors: Pei-Te Chiueh, Hsiao-Ting Wu, Shang-Lien Lo

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Protecting is the sources of drinking water is the first barrier of contamination of drinking water. The Feitsui Reservoir watershed of Taiwan supplies domestic water for around 5 million people in the Taipei metropolitan area. Understanding the spatial patterns of water quality trends in this watershed is an important agenda for management authorities. This study examined 7 sites in the watershed for water quality parameters regulated in the standard for drinking water source. The non-parametric seasonal Mann-Kendall-s test was used to determine significant trends for each parameter. Significant trends of increasing pH occurred at the sampling station in the uppermost stream watershed, and in total phosphorus at 4 sampling stations in the middle and downstream watershed. Additionally, the multi-scale land cover assessment and average land slope were used to explore the influence on the water quality in the watershed. Regression models for predicting water quality were also developed.

Keywords: Seasonal Mann-Kendall's test, Flow-adjusted concentrations, Water quality trends, Land-use

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Authors: Balasundaram Prasaant, Ploix Stephane, Delinchant Benoit, Muresan Cristian

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Hardware in Loop (HIL) testing is done to test and validate a particular product especially in building technology. When it comes to building technology, it is more important to test the products for their efficiency. The test rig in the HIL simulator may contribute to some uncertainties on measured efficiency. The uncertainties include physical uncertainties and scenario-based uncertainties. In this paper, a simple uncertainty analysis framework for an HIL setup is shown considering only the physical uncertainties. The entire modeling of the HIL setup is done in Dymola. The uncertain sources are considered based on available knowledge of the components and also on expert knowledge. For the propagation of uncertainty, Monte Carlo Simulation is used since it is the most reliable and easy to use. In this article it is shown how an HIL setup can be modeled and how uncertainty propagation can be performed on it. Such an approach is not common in building energy analysis.

Keywords: Energy in Buildings, Hardware in Loop, Modelica (Dymola), Monte Carlo Simulation, Uncertainty Propagation.

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Authors: Oliver Radolović

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The subject of the paper is comparative analysis of the hotel guest-s contractual liability for breaching the obligation for non-payment of hotel services in the hotel-keeper-s contract. The paper is methodologically conceived of six chapters (1. introduction, 2. comparative law sources of the hotel-keeper-s contract, 3. the guest-s obligation for payment of hotel services, 4. hotel guest's liability for non-payment, 5. the hotel-keeper-s rights due to nonpayment and 6. conclusion), which analyzes the guest-s liability for non-payment of hotel services through the international law, European law, euro-continental national laws (France, Germany, Italy, Croatia) and Anglo-American national laws (UK, USA). The paper-s results are the synthesis of answers to the set hypothesis and comparative review of hotel guest-s contractual liability for nonpayment of hotel services provided. In conclusion, it is necessary to adopt an international convention on the hotel-keeper-s contract, which would unify the institute of the hotel guest-s contractual liability for non-payment of hotel services at the international level.

Keywords: Comparative law, hotel guest's contractual liability, non-payment, hotel-keeper's contract.

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Authors: K. Kusakana

Abstract:

A hybrid energy system is a combination of renewable energy sources with back up, as well as a storage system used to respond to given load energy requirements. Given that the electrical output of each renewable source is fluctuating with changes in weather conditions, and since the load demand also varies with time; one of the main attributes of hybrid systems is to be able to respond to the load demand at any time by optimally controlling each energy source, storage and back-up system. The induced optimization problem is to compute the optimal operation control of the system with the aim of minimizing operation costs while efficiently and reliably responding to the load energy requirement. Current optimization research and development on hybrid systems are mainly focusing on the sizing aspect. Thus, the aim of this paper is to report on the state-of-the-art of optimal operation control of hybrid renewable energy systems. This paper also discusses different challenges encountered, as well as future developments that can help in improving the optimal operation control of hybrid renewable energy systems.

Keywords: Renewable energies, hybrid systems, optimization, operation control.

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Authors: Melissa C. LaDuke

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The purpose of this targeted analysis was to identify the use of online communities of practice (CoP) within e-learning environments as a method to build social interaction and student-centered educational experiences. A literature review was conducted to survey and collect scholarly thoughts concerning CoPs from a variety of sources. Data collected included best practices, ties to educational theories, and examples of online CoPs. Social interaction has been identified as a critical piece of the learning infrastructure, specifically for adult learners. CoPs are an effective way to help students connect to each other and the material of interest. The use of CoPs falls in line with many educational theories, including situated learning theory, social constructivism, connectivism, adult learning theory, and motivation. New literacies such as social media and gamification can help increase social interaction in online environments and provide methods to host CoPs. Steps to build and sustain a CoP were discussed in addition to CoP considerations and best practices.

Keywords: Community of practice, knowledge sharing, social interaction, online course design, new literacies.

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Authors: Campisi Domenico, Costa Roberta

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Intellectual capital measurement is a central aspect of knowledge management. The measurement and the evaluation of intangible assets play a key role in allowing an effective management of these assets as sources of competitiveness. For these reasons, managers and practitioners need conceptual and analytical tools taking into account the unique characteristics and economic significance of Intellectual Capital. Following this lead, we propose an efficiency and productivity analysis of Intellectual Capital, as a determinant factor of the company competitive advantage. The analysis is carried out by means of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI). These techniques identify Bests Practice companies that have accomplished competitive advantage implementing successful strategies of Intellectual Capital management, and offer to inefficient companies development paths by means of benchmarking. The proposed methodology is employed on the Biotechnology industry in the period 2007-2010.

Keywords: Data Envelopment Analysis, Innovation, Intangible assets, Intellectual Capital, Malmquist Productivity Index.

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Authors: George Yungchih Wang

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This paper argues that increased uncertainty, in certain situations, may actually encourage investment. Since earlier studies mostly base their arguments on the assumption of geometric Brownian motion, the study extends the assumption to alternative stochastic processes, such as mixed diffusion-jump, mean-reverting process, and jump amplitude process. A general approach of Monte Carlo simulation is developed to derive optimal investment trigger for the situation that the closed-form solution could not be readily obtained under the assumption of alternative process. The main finding is that the overall effect of uncertainty on investment is interpreted by the probability of investing, and the relationship appears to be an invested U-shaped curve between uncertainty and investment. The implication is that uncertainty does not always discourage investment even under several sources of uncertainty. Furthermore, high-risk projects are not always dominated by low-risk projects because the high-risk projects may have a positive realization effect on encouraging investment.

Keywords: real options, geometric Brownian motion, mixeddiffusion-jump process, mean- reverting process, jump amplitudeprocess

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Authors: T. Parra, R. Z. Szasz, C. Duwig, R. Pérez, V. Mendoza, F. Castro

Abstract:

The POD makes possible to reduce the complete high-dimensional acoustic field to a low-dimensional subspace where different modes are identified and let reconstruct in a simple way a high percentage of the variance of the field.

Rotating modes are instabilities which are commonly observed in swirling flows. Such modes can appear under both cold and reacting conditions but that they have different sources: while the cold flow rotating mode is essentially hydrodynamic and corresponds to the wellknown PVC (precessing vortex core) observed in many swirled unconfined flows, the rotating structure observed for the reacting case inside the combustion chamber might be not hydrodynamically but acoustically controlled. The two transverse acoustic modes of the combustion chamber couple and create a rotating motion of the flame which leads to a self-sustained turning mode which has the features of a classical PVC but a very different source (acoustics and not hydrodynamics).

Keywords: Acoustic field, POD, swirling flames.

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Authors: Hans H. Diel

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A computer model of Quantum Theory (QT) has been developed by the author. Major goal of the computer model was support and demonstration of an as large as possible scope of QT. This includes simulations for the major QT (Gedanken-) experiments such as, for example, the famous double-slit experiment. Besides the anticipated difficulties with (1) transforming exacting mathematics into a computer program, two further types of problems showed up, namely (2) areas where QT provides a complete mathematical formalism, but when it comes to concrete applications the equations are not solvable at all, or only with extremely high effort; (3) QT rules which are formulated in natural language and which do not seem to be translatable to precise mathematical expressions, nor to a computer program. The paper lists problems in all three categories and describes also the possible solutions or circumventions developed for the computer model.

Keywords: Computability, Foundation of Quantum Mechanics, Measurement Process, Modeling.

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Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver, Reham Al-Hindawi

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Despite the availability of natural disaster related time series data for last 110 years, there is no forecasting tool available to humanitarian relief organizations to determine forecasts for emergency logistics planning. This study develops a forecasting tool based on identifying probability of disaster for each country in the world by using decision tree modeling. Further, the determination of aggregate forecasts leads to efficient pre-disaster planning. Based on the research findings, the relief agencies can optimize the various resources allocation in emergency logistics planning.

Keywords: Decision tree modeling, Forecasting, Humanitarian relief, emergency supply chain.

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Authors: Doraid Dalalah

Abstract:

A topologically oriented neural network is very efficient for real-time path planning for a mobile robot in changing environments. When using a recurrent neural network for this purpose and with the combination of the partial differential equation of heat transfer and the distributed potential concept of the network, the problem of obstacle avoidance of trajectory planning for a moving robot can be efficiently solved. The related dimensional network represents the state variables and the topology of the robot's working space. In this paper two approaches to problem solution are proposed. The first approach relies on the potential distribution of attraction distributed around the moving target, acting as a unique local extreme in the net, with the gradient of the state variables directing the current flow toward the source of the potential heat. The second approach considers two attractive and repulsive potential sources to decrease the time of potential distribution. Computer simulations have been carried out to interrogate the performance of the proposed approaches.

Keywords: Mobile robot, Path Planning, Mesh, Potential field.

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Authors: Inom Sh. Normatov, Nurmakhmad Shermatov, Rajabali Barotov, Rano Eshankulova

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The results of the studies for the hydrogen production by the application of water electrolysis and plasma-chemical processing of gas condensate-waste of natural gas production methods are presented. Thin coating covers the electrode surfaces in the process of water electrolysis. Therefore, water for electrolysis was first exposed to electrosedimentation. The threshold voltage is shifted to a lower value compared with the use of electrodes made of stainless steel. At electrolysis of electrosedimented water by use of electrodes from stainless steel, a significant amount of hydrogen is formed. Pyrolysis of gas condensates in the atmosphere of a nitrogen was followed by the formation of acetylene (3-7 vol.%), ethylene (4-8 vol.%), and pyrolysis carbon (10-15 wt.%).

Keywords: Electrolyze, gas condensate, hydrogen, pyrolysis.

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Authors: R. Mahjoub, K. Maghsoudi Mehraban

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In recent years, solid oxide fuel cells have been used as one of the main technologies for the production of electrical energy with high-efficiency ratio, which is used hydrogen and other hydrocarbons as fuels. The fuel cell technology can be used either alone or in hybrid gas turbines systems. In this study, thermodynamics analysis for GT-SOFC hybrid system is developed, and then mass balance and exergy equations have been applied not only on the process but also on the individual components of the hybrid system, which enable us to estimate the thermal efficiency of the hybrid systems. Furthermore, various sources of irreversibility in the solid oxide fuel cell system are discussed, and modeling and parametric analyses like heat and pressure are carried out. This study enables us to consider the irreversible effects of solid oxide fuel cells, and also it leads to the specification of efficiency of the system accurately. Next in the study, both methane and hydrogen as a fuel for SOFC are used and implemented, and finally, our results are compared with other references.

Keywords: hybrid system, gas turbine, entropy and exergy analysis, irreversibility analysis

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Authors: Hichem Talbi, Mohamed Batouche, Amer Draa

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In this paper we present a new approach to deal with image segmentation. The fact that a single segmentation result do not generally allow a higher level process to take into account all the elements included in the image has motivated the consideration of image segmentation as a multiobjective optimization problem. The proposed algorithm adopts a split/merge strategy that uses the result of the k-means algorithm as input for a quantum evolutionary algorithm to establish a set of non-dominated solutions. The evaluation is made simultaneously according to two distinct features: intra-region homogeneity and inter-region heterogeneity. The experimentation of the new approach on natural images has proved its efficiency and usefulness.

Keywords: Image segmentation, multiobjective optimization, quantum computing, evolutionary algorithms.

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Authors: Robest Flasza, Milan Rippel, Jan Solc

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The main aim of this paper is to develop and calibrate an econometric model for modeling prices of long term electricity futures contracts. The calibration of our model is performed on data from EEX AG allowing us to capture the specific features of German electricity market. The data sample contains several structural breaks which have to be taken into account for modeling. We model the data with an ARIMAX model which reveals high correlation between the price of electricity futures contracts and prices of LT futures contracts of fuels (namely coal, natural gas and crude oil). Besides this, also a share price index of representative electricity companies traded on Xetra, spread between 10Y and 1Y German bonds and exchange rate between EUR and USD appeared to have significant explanatory power over these futures contracts on EEX.

Keywords: electricity futures, EEX, ARIMAX, emissionallowances

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Authors: Milad Eghtedari Naeini, Gholamreza Heravi

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In this paper, based on the past project cost and time performance, a model for forecasting project cost performance is developed. This study presents a probabilistic project control concept to assure an acceptable forecast of project cost performance. In this concept project activities are classified into sub-groups entitled control accounts. Then obtain the Stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), for each sub-group and the project SS-Curve is obtained by summing sub-groups- SS-Curves. In this model, project cost uncertainties are considered through Beta distribution functions of the project activities costs required to complete the project at every selected time sections through project accomplishment, which are extracted from a variety of sources. Based on this model, after a percentage of the project progress, the project performance is measured via Earned Value Management to adjust the primary cost probability distribution functions. Then, accordingly the future project cost performance is predicted by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method.

Keywords: Monte Carlo method, Probabilistic model, Project forecasting, Stochastic S-curve

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