Search results for: Gradient of average reward

Authors: Ahmed M. Al-Hasem

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A study of the tidal current behavior and bathymetric changes was undertaken in order to establish an information base for future coastal management. The average velocity for tidal current was 0.46 m/s and the maximum velocity was 1.08 m/s during ebb tide. During spring tides, maximum velocities range from 0.90 m/s to 1.08 m/s, whereas maximum velocities vary from 0.40 m/s to 0.60 m/s during neap tides. Despite greater current velocities during flood tide, the bathymetric features enhance the dominance of the ebb tide. This can be related to the abundance of fine sediments from the ebb current approaching the study area, and the relatively coarser sediment from the approaching flood current. Significant bathymetric changes for the period from 1985 to 1998 were found with dominance of erosion process. Approximately 96.5% of depth changes occurred within the depth change classes of -5 m to 5 m. The high erosion processes within the study area will subsequently result in high accretion processes, particularly in the north, the location of the proposed Boubyan Port and its navigation channel.

Keywords: Bathymetric change, Boubyan Island, GIS, Khor Abdullah, tidal current behavior.

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Authors: Brownhilder N. Neneh, A. Van Aardt Smit

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Underpricing is one anomaly in initial public offerings (IPO) literature that has been widely observed across different stock markets with different trends emerging over different time periods. This study seeks to determine how IPOs on the JSE performed on the first day, first week and first month over the period of 1996-2011. Underpricing trends are documented for both hot and cold market periods in terms of four main sectors (cyclical, defensive, growth stock and interest rate sensitive stocks). Using a sample of 360 listed companies on the JSE, the empirical findings established that IPOs on the JSE are significantly underpriced with an average market adjusted first day return of 62.9%. It is also established that hot market IPOs on the JSE are more underpriced than the cold market IPOs. Also observed is the fact that as the offer price per share increases above the median price for any given period, the level of underpricing decreases substantially. While significant differences exist in the level of underpricing of IPOs in the four different sectors in the hot and cold market periods, interest rates sensitive stocks showed a different trend from the other sectors and thus require further investigation to uncover this pattern.

Keywords: Underpricing, hot and cold markets, South Africa, JSE.

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Authors: Mian Tahir Aftab, Muhammad Umer, Riaz Ahmad

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This article proposes an Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) metaheuristic to minimize total makespan for scheduling a set of jobs and assign workers for uniformly related parallel machines. An algorithm based on ACO has been developed and coded on a computer program Matlab®, to solve this problem. The paper explains various steps to apply Ant Colony approach to the problem of minimizing makespan for the worker assignment & jobs scheduling problem in a parallel machine model and is aimed at evaluating the strength of ACO as compared to other conventional approaches. One data set containing 100 problems (12 Jobs, 03 machines and 10 workers) which is available on internet, has been taken and solved through this ACO algorithm. The results of our ACO based algorithm has shown drastically improved results, especially, in terms of negligible computational effort of CPU, to reach the optimal solution. In our case, the time taken to solve all 100 problems is even lesser than the average time taken to solve one problem in the data set by other conventional approaches like GA algorithm and SPT-A/LMC heuristics.

Keywords: Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), Genetic algorithms (GA), Makespan, SPT-A/LMC heuristic.

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Authors: M. Palizvan, M. H. Sadr, M. T. Abadi

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The representative volume element (RVE) plays a central role in the mechanics of random heterogeneous materials with a view to predicting their effective properties. In this paper, a computational homogenization methodology, developed to determine effective linear elastic properties of composite materials, is extended to predict the effective nonlinear elastoplastic response of long fiber reinforced composite. Finite element simulations of volumes of different sizes and fiber volume fractures are performed for calculation of the overall response RVE. The dependencies of the overall stress-strain curves on the number of fibers inside the RVE are studied in the 2D cases. Volume averaged stress-strain responses are generated from RVEs and compared with the finite element calculations available in the literature at moderate and high fiber volume fractions. For these materials, the existence of an RVE is demonstrated for the sizes of RVE corresponding to 10–100 times the diameter of the fibers. In addition, the response of small size RVE is found anisotropic, whereas the average of all large ones leads to recover the isotropic material properties.

Keywords: Homogenization, periodic boundary condition, elastoplastic properties, RVE.

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Authors: Md R. Bashar, Yan Li, Peng Wen

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This study is to investigate the electroencephalogram (EEG) differences generated from a normal and Alzheimer-s disease (AD) sources. We also investigate the effects of brain tissue distortions due to AD on EEG. We develop a realistic head model from T1 weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) using finite element method (FEM) for normal source (somatosensory cortex (SC) in parietal lobe) and AD sources (right amygdala (RA) and left amygdala (LA) in medial temporal lobe). Then, we compare the AD sourced EEGs to the SC sourced EEG for studying the nature of potential changes due to sources and 5% to 20% brain tissue distortions. We find an average of 0.15 magnification errors produced by AD sourced EEGs. Different brain tissue distortion models also generate the maximum 0.07 magnification. EEGs obtained from AD sources and different brain tissue distortion levels vary scalp potentials from normal source, and the electrodes residing in parietal and temporal lobes are more sensitive than other electrodes for AD sourced EEG.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease (AD), brain tissue distortion, electroencephalogram, finite element method.

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Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, S. M. Aqil Burney, C. Ardil

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In this paper, we have presented a new multivariate fuzzy time series forecasting method. This method assumes mfactors with one main factor of interest. History of past three years is used for making new forecasts. This new method is applied in forecasting total number of car accidents in Belgium using four secondary factors. We also make comparison of our proposed method with existing methods of fuzzy time series forecasting. Experimentally, it is shown that our proposed method perform better than existing fuzzy time series forecasting methods. Practically, actuaries are interested in analysis of the patterns of causalities in road accidents. Thus using fuzzy time series, actuaries can define fuzzy premium and fuzzy underwriting of car insurance and life insurance for car insurance. National Institute of Statistics, Belgium provides region of risk classification for each road. Thus using this risk classification, we can predict premium rate and underwriting of insurance policy holders.

Keywords: Average forecasting error rate (AFER), Fuzziness offuzzy sets Fuzzy, If-Then rules, Multivariate fuzzy time series.

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Authors: Narendra Singh Yadav, R.P.Yadav

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Mobile ad hoc network is a collection of mobile nodes communicating through wireless channels without any existing network infrastructure or centralized administration. Because of the limited transmission range of wireless network interfaces, multiple "hops" may be needed to exchange data across the network. In order to facilitate communication within the network, a routing protocol is used to discover routes between nodes. The primary goal of such an ad hoc network routing protocol is correct and efficient route establishment between a pair of nodes so that messages may be delivered in a timely manner. Route construction should be done with a minimum of overhead and bandwidth consumption. This paper examines two routing protocols for mobile ad hoc networks– the Destination Sequenced Distance Vector (DSDV), the table- driven protocol and the Ad hoc On- Demand Distance Vector routing (AODV), an On –Demand protocol and evaluates both protocols based on packet delivery fraction, normalized routing load, average delay and throughput while varying number of nodes, speed and pause time.

Keywords: AODV, DSDV, MANET, relative performance

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Authors: A. J. Al-Shareef, E. A. Mohamed, E. Al-Judaibi

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Load forecasting has become in recent years one of the major areas of research in electrical engineering. Most traditional forecasting models and artificial intelligence neural network techniques have been tried out in this task. Artificial neural networks (ANN) have lately received much attention, and a great number of papers have reported successful experiments and practical tests. This article presents the development of an ANN-based short-term load forecasting model with improved generalization technique for the Regional Power Control Center of Saudi Electricity Company, Western Operation Area (SEC-WOA). The proposed ANN is trained with weather-related data and historical electric load-related data using the data from the calendar years 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004 for training. The model tested for one week at five different seasons, typically, winter, spring, summer, Ramadan and fall seasons, and the mean absolute average error for one hour-ahead load forecasting found 1.12%.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, short-term load forecasting, back propagation.

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Authors: Bo Liu, Qingshan Kong, Weiqing Huang

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With the rapid development of modern communication, diagnosing the fiber-optic quality and faults in real-time is widely focused. In this paper, a Labview-based system is proposed for fiber-optic faults detection. The wavelet threshold denoising method combined with Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is applied to denoise the optical time domain reflectometer (OTDR) signal. Then the method based on Gabor representation is used to detect events. Experimental measurements show that signal to noise ratio (SNR) of the OTDR signal is improved by 1.34dB on average, compared with using the wavelet threshold denosing method. The proposed system has a high score in event detection capability and accuracy. The maximum detectable fiber length of the proposed Labview-based system can be 65km.

Keywords: Empirical mode decomposition (EMD), events detection, Gabor transform, optical time domain reflectometer (OTDR), wavelet threshold denoising.

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Authors: Won Song, Bo-Ra Koo, Seok Eui Choi, Yong-Taeg Oh, Dong-Chan Shin

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Optical properties of sputter-deposited ZnS thin films were investigated as potential replacements for CBD(chemical bath deposition) CdS buffer layers in the application of CIGS solar cells. ZnS thin films were fabricated on glass substrates at RT, 150oC, 200oC, and 250oC with 50 sccm Ar gas using an RF magnetron sputtering system. The crystal structure of the thin film is found to be zinc blende (cubic) structure. Lattice parameter of ZnS is slightly larger than CdS on the plane and thus better matched with that of CIGS. Within a 400-800 nm wavelength region, the average transmittance was larger than 75%. When the deposition temperature of the thin film was increased, the blue shift phenomenon was enhanced. Band gap energy of the ZnS thin film tended to increase as the deposition temperature increased. ZnS thin film is a promising material system for the CIGS buffer layer, in terms of ease of processing, low cost, environmental friendliness, higher transparency, and electrical properties

Keywords: ZnS thin film, Buffer layer, CIGS, Solar cell.

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Authors: Charawee Butbumrung

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The purpose of this research was to study customer relationship management on social media affecting brand loyalty of Siam Commercial Bank in Bangkok. The statistics used in data analysis were frequency, mean, standard deviation, and Pearson’s correlation coefficient based on social science statistic program. The result of the study found that the majority of the respondents were female, 37–47 years old of age, bachelor degree of education and monthly income between 10,001 and 15,000 Baht. In addition, customer relationship management in the overall and by each aspect of formulating, maintaining, and extending the customer relationship had a high score. Furthermore, the result of hypothesis testing showed that the difference of the customer’s age, education, occupation, average monthly income had the difference in brand loyalty with the statistical significance level of 0.05 and customer relationship management had related with brand loyalty in the same direction with the low level of statistical significance 0.05.

Keywords: Brand loyalty, customer relationship, management, Siam Commercial Bank, social media.

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Authors: Muhammad Rizwan Azhar, Emadadeen Ali

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In this paper, periodic force operation of a wastewater treatment process has been studied for the improved process performance. A previously developed dynamic model for the process is used to conduct the performance analysis. The static version of the model was utilized first to determine the optimal productivity conditions for the process. Then, feed flow rate in terms of dilution rate i.e. (D) is transformed into sinusoidal function. Nonlinear model predictive control algorithm is utilized to regulate the amplitude and period of the sinusoidal function. The parameters of the feed cyclic functions are determined which resulted in improved productivity than the optimal productivity under steady state conditions. The improvement in productivity is found to be marginal and is satisfactory in substrate conversion compared to that of the optimal condition and to the steady state condition, which corresponds to the average value of the periodic function. Successful results were also obtained in the presence of modeling errors and external disturbances.

Keywords: Dilution rate, nonlinear model predictive control, sinusoidal function, wastewater treatment.

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Authors: S. Khamtree, T. Ratanawilai, C. Nuntadusit

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Rubberwood is a crucial commercial timber in Southern Thailand. All processes in a rubberwood production depend on the knowledge and expertise of the technicians, especially the drying process. This research aims to develop an empirical model for drying kinetics in rubberwood. During the experiment, the temperature of the hot air and the average air flow velocity were kept at 80-100 °C and 1.75 m/s, respectively. The moisture content in the samples was determined less than 12% in the achievement of drying basis. The drying kinetic was simulated using an empirical solver. The experimental results illustrated that the moisture content was reduced whereas the drying temperature and time were increased. The coefficient of the moisture ratio between the empirical and the experimental model was tested with three statistical parameters, R-square (R²), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Chi-square (χ²) to predict the accuracy of the parameters. The experimental moisture ratio had a good fit with the empirical model. Additionally, the results indicated that the drying of rubberwood using the Henderson and Pabis model revealed the suitable level of agreement. The result presented an excellent estimation (R² = 0.9963) for the moisture movement compared to the other models. Therefore, the empirical results were valid and can be implemented in the future experiments.

Keywords: Empirical models, hot air, moisture ratio, rubberwood.

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Authors: Ab. Rashid M.F.F., Gan S.Y., Muhammad N.Y.

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Surface roughness (Ra) is one of the most important requirements in machining process. In order to obtain better surface roughness, the proper setting of cutting parameters is crucial before the process take place. This research presents the development of mathematical model for surface roughness prediction before milling process in order to evaluate the fitness of machining parameters; spindle speed, feed rate and depth of cut. 84 samples were run in this study by using FANUC CNC Milling α-Τ14ιE. Those samples were randomly divided into two data sets- the training sets (m=60) and testing sets(m=24). ANOVA analysis showed that at least one of the population regression coefficients was not zero. Multiple Regression Method was used to determine the correlation between a criterion variable and a combination of predictor variables. It was established that the surface roughness is most influenced by the feed rate. By using Multiple Regression Method equation, the average percentage deviation of the testing set was 9.8% and 9.7% for training data set. This showed that the statistical model could predict the surface roughness with about 90.2% accuracy of the testing data set and 90.3% accuracy of the training data set.

Keywords: Surface roughness, regression analysis.

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Authors: K. Ramash Kumar, S. Jeevananthan

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The Object of this paper is to design and analyze a Hysteresis modulation based sliding mode control (HMSMC) for positive output elementary super lift Luo converter (POESLLC), which is the start-of-the-art DC-DC converter. The positive output elementary super lift Luo converter performs the voltage conversion from positive source voltage to positive load voltage. This paper proposes a HMSMC capable of providing the good steady state and dynamic performance compared to conventional controllers. Dynamic equations describing the positive output elementary super lift luo converter are derived by using state space average method. The simulation model of the positive output elementary super lift Luo converter with its control circuit is implemented in Matlab/Simulink. The HMSMC for positive output elementary super lift Luo converter is tested for line changes, load changes and also for components variations.

Keywords: DC-DC converter, Positive output elementarysuper lift Luo converter (POESLLC), Hysteresis modulation basedsliding mode control (HMSMC).

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Authors: M. Tamilarasi, T.G. Palanivelu

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Mobile Ad Hoc Networks (MANETs) are multi-hop wireless networks in which all nodes cooperatively maintain network connectivity. In such a multi-hop wireless network, every node may be required to perform routing in order to achieve end-to-end communication among nodes. These networks are energy constrained as most ad hoc mobile nodes today operate with limited battery power. Hence, it is important to minimize the energy consumption of the entire network in order to maximize the lifetime of ad hoc networks. In this paper, a mechanism involving the integration of load balancing approach and transmission power control approach is introduced to maximize the life-span of MANETs. The mechanism is applied on Ad hoc On-demand Vector (AODV) protocol to make it as energy aware AODV (EA_AODV). The simulation is carried out using GloMoSim2.03 simulator. The results show that the proposed mechanism reduces the average required transmission energy per packet compared to the standard AODV.

Keywords: energy aware routing, load balance, Mobile Ad HocNetworks, MANETs , on demand routing, transmission power control.

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Authors: B. J. C. Perera, D. A. Sachindra, W. Godoy., A.F. Barton, F. Huang

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Many water supply systems in Australia are currently undergoing significant reconfiguration due to reductions in long term average rainfall and resulting low inflows to water supply reservoirs since the second half of the 20th century. When water supply systems undergo change, it is necessary to develop new operating rules, which should consider climate, because the climate change is likely to further reduce inflows. In addition, water resource systems are increasingly intended to be operated to meet complex and multiple objectives representing social, economic, environmental and sustainability criteria. This is further complicated by conflicting preferences on these objectives from diverse stakeholders. This paper describes a methodology to develop optimum operating rules for complex multi-reservoir systems undergoing significant change, considering all of the above issues. The methodology is demonstrated using the Grampians water supply system in northwest Victoria, Australia. Initial work conducted on the project is also presented in this paper.

Keywords: Climate change, Multi-objective planning, Pareto optimal; Stakeholder preference, Statistical downscaling, Water supply systems.

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Authors: Quanru Pan

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How to maintain the service speeds for the business to make the biggest profit is a problem worthy of study, which is discussed in this paper with the use of queuing theory. An M/M/1/N queuing model with variable input rates, variable service rates and impatient customers is established, and the following conclusions are drawn: the stationary distribution of the model, the relationship between the stationary distribution and the probability that there are n customers left in the system when a customer leaves (not including the customer who leaves himself), the busy period of the system, the average operating cycle, the loss probability for the customers not entering the system while they arriving at the system, the mean of the customers who leaves the system being for impatient, the loss probability for the customers not joining the queue due to the limited capacity of the system and many other indicators. This paper also indicates that the following conclusion is not correct: the more customers the business serve, the more profit they will get. At last, this paper points out the appropriate service speeds the business should keep to make the biggest profit.

Keywords: variable input rates, impatient customer, variable servicerates, profit maximization.

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Authors: A. Umemuro, M. Sato, M. Narita, S. Hori, S. Sakurai, T. Nakayama, A. Nakazawa, T. Ogura

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Mammography requires the detection of very small calcifications, and physicians search for microcalcifications by magnifying the images as they read them. The mouse is necessary to zoom in on the images, but this can be tiring and distracting when many images are read in a single day. Therefore, an image magnification system combining an eye-detector and a simple electroencephalograph (EEG) scanner was devised, and its operability was evaluated. Two experiments were conducted in this study: the measurement of eye-detection error using an eye-detector and the measurement of the time required for image magnification using a simple EEG scanner. Eye-detector validation showed that the mean distance of eye-detection error ranged from 0.64 cm to 2.17 cm, with an overall mean of 1.24 ± 0.81 cm for the observers. The results showed that the eye detection error was small enough for the magnified area of the mammographic image. The average time required for point magnification in the verification of the simple EEG scanner ranged from 5.85 to 16.73 seconds, and individual differences were observed. The reason for this may be that the size of the simple EEG scanner used was not adjustable, so it did not fit well for some subjects. The use of a simple EEG scanner with size adjustment would solve this problem. Therefore, the image magnification system using the eye-detector and the simple EEG scanner is useful.

Keywords: EEG scanner, eye-detector, mammography, observers.

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Authors: Long Van Hoang, Mitsuyasu Yabe

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Environmental factors affect agriculture production productivity and efficiency resulted in changing of profit efficiency. This paper attempts to estimate the impacts of environmental factors to profitability of rice farmers in the Red River Delta of Vietnam. The dataset was extracted from 349 rice farmers using personal interviews. Both OLS and MLE trans-log profit functions were used in this study. Five production inputs and four environmental factors were included in these functions. The estimation of the stochastic profit frontier with a two-stage approach was used to measure profitability. The results showed that the profit efficiency was about 75% on the average and environmental factors change profit efficiency significantly beside farm specific characteristics. Plant disease, soil fertility, irrigation apply and water pollution were the four environmental factors cause profit loss in rice production. The result indicated that farmers should reduce household size, farm plots, apply row seeding technique and improve environmental factors to obtain high profit efficiency with special consideration is given for irrigation water quality improvement.

Keywords: Profit efficiency; Profit function; Environmental factors; OLS and MLE estimations; Rice Production; Vietnam

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Authors: Yu-Jen Chang, Yun Chen, Hei-Lam Wong

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The Economic Lot Scheduling Problem (ELSP) is a valuable mathematical model that can support decision-makers to make scheduling decisions. The basic period approach is effective for solving the ELSP. The assumption for applying the basic period approach is that a product must use its maximum production rate to be produced. However, a product can lower its production rate to reduce the average total cost when a facility has extra idle time. The past researches discussed how a product adjusts its production rate under the common cycle approach. To the best of our knowledge, no studies have addressed how a product lowers its production rate under the basic period approach. This research is the first paper to discuss this topic. The research develops a simple fixed rate approach that adjusts the production rate of a product under the basic period approach to solve the ELSP. Our numerical example shows our approach can find a better solution than the traditional basic period approach. Our mathematical model that applies the fixed rate approach under the basic period approach can serve as a reference for other related researches.

Keywords: Economic Lot, Basic Period, Genetic Algorithm, Fixed Rate.

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Authors: El-Sayed Atlam, Masao Fuketa, Kazuhiro Morita, Jun-ichi Aoe

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Field Association (FA) terms are a limited set of discriminating terms that give us the knowledge to identify document fields which are effective in document classification, similar file retrieval and passage retrieval. But the problem lies in the lack of an effective method to extract automatically relevant Arabic FA Terms to build a comprehensive dictionary. Moreover, all previous studies are based on FA terms in English and Japanese, and the extension of FA terms to other language such Arabic could be definitely strengthen further researches. This paper presents a new method to extract, Arabic FA Terms from domain-specific corpora using part-of-speech (POS) pattern rules and corpora comparison. Experimental evaluation is carried out for 14 different fields using 251 MB of domain-specific corpora obtained from Arabic Wikipedia dumps and Alhyah news selected average of 2,825 FA Terms (single and compound) per field. From the experimental results, recall and precision are 84% and 79% respectively. Therefore, this method selects higher number of relevant Arabic FA Terms at high precision and recall.

Keywords: Arabic Field Association Terms, information extraction, document classification, information retrieval.

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Authors: Yin Yin Phyo, Tun Lin Naing

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This paper investigated the simulation of two-phase interleaved boost converter (IBC) with free and open-source software Scilab/Xcos. By using interleaved method, it can reduce current stress on components, components size, input current ripple and output voltage ripple. The required mathematical model is obtained from the equivalent circuit of its different four modes of operation for simulation. The equivalent circuits are considered in continuous conduction mode (CCM). The average values of the system variables are derived from the state-space equation to find the equilibrium point. Scilab is now becoming more and more popular among students, engineers and scientists because it is open-source software and free of charge. It gives a great convenience because it has powerful computation and simulation function. The waveforms of output voltage, input current and inductors current are obtained by using Scilab/Xcos.

Keywords: Two-phase boost converter, continuous conduction mode, free and open-source, interleaved method, dynamic simulation.

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Authors: Mohammad Hosein Hojati, Fardin Boustani

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Groundwater is one of the most important water resources in Fars province. Based on this study, 95 percent of the total annual water consumption in Fars is used for agriculture, whereas the percentages for domestic and industrial uses are 4 and 1 percent, respectively. Population growth, urban and industrial growth, and agricultural development in Fars have created a condition of water stress. In this province, farmers and other users are pumping groundwater faster than its natural replenishment rate, causing a continuous drop in groundwater tables and depletion of this resource. In this research variation of groundwater level, their effects and ways to help control groundwater levels in aquifer of the Kavar- Maharloo plains in Fars plain were evaluated .Excessive exploitation of groundwater in this aquifer caused the groundwater levels fall too fast or to unacceptable levels. The average drawdown of the groundwater level in this plain were 17 meters during 1995 to 2006. The purpose of this study is to evaluate water level changes in the Kavar-Maharloo Aquifer in the Fars province in order to determine the areas of greatest depletion, the cause of depletion, and predict the remaining life of the aquifer.

Keywords: Aquifer , ground water depletion, water table

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Authors: M. Yousaf, S. Usman

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Numerical studies were conducted using Lattice Boltzmann Method (LBM) to study the natural convection in a square cavity in the presence of roughness. An algorithm based on a single relaxation time Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook (BGK) model of Lattice Boltzmann Method (LBM) was developed. Roughness was introduced on both the hot and cold walls in the form of sinusoidal roughness elements. The study was conducted for a Newtonian fluid of Prandtl number (Pr) 1.0. The range of Ra number was explored from 10^3 to 10^6 in a laminar region. Thermal and hydrodynamic behavior of fluid was analyzed using a differentially heated square cavity with roughness elements present on both the hot and cold wall. Neumann boundary conditions were introduced on horizontal walls with vertical walls as isothermal. The roughness elements were at the same boundary condition as corresponding walls. Computational algorithm was validated against previous benchmark studies performed with different numerical methods, and a good agreement was found to exist. Results indicate that the maximum reduction in the average heat transfer was 16.66 percent at Ra number 10^5.

Keywords: Lattice Boltzmann Method Natural convection, Nusselt Number Rayleigh number, Roughness.

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Authors: Fatemeh Mosalman Yazdi

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One of the most important requirements for the operation and planning activities of an electrical utility is the prediction of load for the next hour to several days out, known as short term load forecasting. This paper presents the development of an artificial neural network based short-term load forecasting model. The model can forecast daily load profiles with a load time of one day for next 24 hours. In this method can divide days of year with using average temperature. Groups make according linearity rate of curve. Ultimate forecast for each group obtain with considering weekday and weekend. This paper investigates effects of temperature and humidity on consuming curve. For forecasting load curve of holidays at first forecast pick and valley and then the neural network forecast is re-shaped with the new data. The ANN-based load models are trained using hourly historical. Load data and daily historical max/min temperature and humidity data. The results of testing the system on data from Yazd utility are reported.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, Holiday forecasting, pickand valley load forecasting, Short-term load-forecasting.

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Authors: M. Hosseinnezhad, K. Gharanjig

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Natural dyes, extracted from black carrot and bramble, were utilized as photosensitizers to prepare dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs). Spectrophotometric studies of the natural dyes in solution and on a titanium dioxide substrate were carried out in order to assess changes in the status of the dyes. The results show that the bathochromic shift is seen on the photo-electrode substrate. The chemical binding of the natural dyes at the surface photo-electrode were increased by the chelating effect of the Ti(IV) ions. The cyclic voltammetry results showed that all extracts are suitable to be performed in DSSCs. Finally, photochemical performance and stability of DSSCs based on natural dyes were studied. The DSSCs sensitized by black carrot extract have been reported to achieve up to Jsc=1.17 mAcm^-2, Voc= 0.55 V, FF= 0.52, η=0.34%, whereas Bramble extract can obtain up to Jsc=2.24 mAcm^-2, Voc= 0.54 V, FF= 0.57, η=0.71%. The power conversion efficiency was obtained from the mixed dyes in DSSCs. The power conversion efficiency of dye-sensitized solar cells using mixed Black carrot and Bramble dye is the average of the their efficiency in single DSSCs.

Keywords: Anthocyanin, dye-sensitized solar cells, green energy, optical materials.

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Authors: Maryam Hsaini, Mostafa Nouri-Baygi

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A critical problem in wireless sensor networks is limited battery and memory of nodes. Therefore, each node in the network could maintain only a subset of its neighbors to communicate with. This will increase the battery usage in the network because each packet should take more hops to reach its destination. In order to tackle these problems, spanner graphs are defined. Since each node has a small degree in a spanner graph and the distance in the graph is not much greater than its actual geographical distance, spanner graphs are suitable candidates to be used for the topology of a wireless sensor network. In this paper, we study Yao graphs and their behavior for a randomly selected set of points. We generate several random point sets and compare the properties of their Yao graphs with the complete graph. Based on our data sets, we obtain several charts demonstrating how Yao graphs behave for a set of randomly chosen point set. As the results show, the stretch factor of a Yao graph follows a normal distribution. Furthermore, the stretch factor is in average far less than the worst case stretch factor proved for Yao graphs in previous results. Furthermore, we use Yao graph for a realistic point set and study its stretch factor in real world.

Keywords: Wireless sensor network, spanner graph, Yao Graph.

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Authors: José M. Merigó, Pilar López-Jurado, M.Carmen Gracia, Montserrat Casanovas

Abstract:

We present a method for the selection of students in interdisciplinary studies based on the hybrid averaging operator. We assume that the available information given in the problem is uncertain so it is necessary to use interval numbers. Therefore, we suggest a new type of hybrid aggregation called uncertain induced generalized hybrid averaging (UIGHA) operator. It is an aggregation operator that considers the weighted average (WA) and the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator in the same formulation. Therefore, we are able to consider the degree of optimism of the decision maker and grades of importance in the same approach. By using interval numbers, we are able to represent the information considering the best and worst possible results so the decision maker gets a more complete view of the decision problem. We develop an illustrative example of the proposed scheme in the selection of students in interdisciplinary studies. We see that with the use of the UIGHA operator we get a more complete representation of the selection problem. Then, the decision maker is able to consider a wide range of alternatives depending on his interests. We also show other potential applications that could be used by using the UIGHA operator in educational problems about selection of different types of resources such as students, professors, etc.

Keywords: Decision making, Selection of students, Uncertainty, Aggregation operators.

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Authors: Mak Kaboudan

Abstract:

A multi-agent system is developed here to predict monthly details of the upcoming peak of the 24th solar magnetic cycle. While studies typically predict the timing and magnitude of cycle peaks using annual data, this one utilizes the unsmoothed monthly sunspot number instead. Monthly numbers display more pronounced fluctuations during periods of strong solar magnetic activity than the annual sunspot numbers. Because strong magnetic activities may cause significant economic damages, predicting monthly variations should provide different and perhaps helpful information for decision-making purposes. The multi-agent system developed here operates in two stages. In the first, it produces twelve predictions of the monthly numbers. In the second, it uses those predictions to deliver a final forecast. Acting as expert agents, genetic programming and neural networks produce the twelve fits and forecasts as well as the final forecast. According to the results obtained, the next peak is predicted to be 156 and is expected to occur in October 2011- with an average of 136 for that year.

Keywords: Computational techniques, discrete wavelet transformations, solar cycle prediction, sunspot numbers.

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