Search results for: Electrical Distribution System

Authors: Rahib Hidayat Abiyev

Abstract:

This paper presents the development of recurrent neural network based fuzzy inference system for identification and control of dynamic nonlinear plant. The structure and algorithms of fuzzy system based on recurrent neural network are described. To train unknown parameters of the system the supervised learning algorithm is used. As a result of learning, the rules of neuro-fuzzy system are formed. The neuro-fuzzy system is used for the identification and control of nonlinear dynamic plant. The simulation results of identification and control systems based on recurrent neuro-fuzzy network are compared with the simulation results of other neural systems. It is found that the recurrent neuro-fuzzy based system has better performance than the others.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, neural network, neuro-fuzzy system, control system.

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Authors: Alpesh Adeshara, Rajendrasinh Jadeja, Praghnesh Bhatt

Abstract:

Implementation of advanced technologies requires sophisticated instruments that deal with the operation, control, restoration and protection of rapidly growing power system network under normal and abnormal conditions. Presently, the applications of Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) are widely found in real time operation, monitoring, controlling and analysis of power system network as it eliminates the various limitations of supervisory control and data acquisition system (SCADA) conventionally used in power system. The use of PMU data is very rapidly increasing its importance for online and offline analysis. Wide area measurement system (WAMS) is developed as new technology by use of multiple PMUs in power system. The present paper proposes a model of Matlab based PMU using Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) algorithm and evaluation of its operation under different contingencies. In this paper, PMU based two bus system having WAMS network is presented as a case study.

Keywords: DFT-Discrete Fourier Transform, GPS-Global Positioning System, PMU-Phasor Measurement System, WAMS-Wide Area Monitoring System.

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Authors: Sharath Kumar T., S.Vinodh

Abstract:

Over the course of the past century, the global automotive industry-s stance towards safety has evolved from one of contempt to one nearing reverence. A suspension system that provides safe handling and cornering capabilities can, with the help of an efficient braking system, improve safety to a large extent. The aim of this research is to propose a new automotive brake rotor design and to compare it with automotive vented disk rotor. Static structural and transient thermal analysis have been carried out on the vented disk rotor and proposed rotor designs to evaluate and compare their performance. Finite element analysis was employed for both static structural and transient thermal analysis. Structural analysis was carried out to study the stress and deformation pattern of the rotors under extreme loads. Time varying temperature load was applied on the rotors and the temperature distribution was analysed considering cooling parameters (convection and radiation). This dissertation illustrates the use of Finite Element Methods to examine models, concluding with a comparative study of the proposed rotor design and the conventional vented disk rotor for structural stability and thermal efficiency.

Keywords: Disk brakes, CAD model, rotor design, structural and thermal analysis

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Authors: Naresh Yadav, I.A. Khan, Sandeep Grover

Abstract:

This paper presents a unified approach based graph theory and system theory postulates for the modeling and analysis of Simple open cycle Gas turbine system. In the present paper, the simple open cycle gas turbine system has been modeled up to its subsystem level and system variables have been identified to develop the process subgraphs. The theorems and algorithms of the graph theory have been used to represent behavioural properties of the system like rate of heat and work transfers rates, pressure drops and temperature drops in the involved processes of the system. The processes have been represented as edges of the process subgraphs and their limits as the vertices of the process subgraphs. The system across variables and through variables has been used to develop terminal equations of the process subgraphs of the system. The set of equations developed for vertices and edges of network graph are used to solve the system for its process variables.

Keywords: Simple open cycle gas turbine, Graph theoretic approach, process subgraphs, gas turbines system modeling, systemtheory

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Authors: Valeri A. Makarov, Ezequiel Del Rio, Manuel G. Bedia, Manuel G. Velarde, Werner Ebeling

Abstract:

We proposed the use of a Toda-Rayleigh ring as a central pattern generator (CPG) for controlling hexapodal robots. We show that the ring composed of six Toda-Rayleigh units coupled to the limb actuators reproduces the most common hexapodal gaits. We provide an electrical circuit implementation of the CPG and test our theoretical results obtaining fixed gaits. Then we propose a method of incorporation of the actuator (motor) dynamics in the CPG. With this approach we close the loop CPG – environment – CPG, thus obtaining a decentralized model for the leg control that does not require higher level intervention to the CPG during locomotion in a nonhomogeneous environments. The gaits generated by the novel CPG are not fixed, but adapt to the current robot bahvior.

Keywords: Central pattern generator, electrical circuit, hexapod robot

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Authors: Adrian T. Plesca

Abstract:

This paper describes a three-dimensional thermal model of the current path included in the low voltage power circuit breakers. The model can be used to analyse the thermal behaviour of the current path during both steady-state and transient conditions. The current path lengthwise temperature distribution and timecurrent characteristic of the terminal connections of the power circuit breaker have been obtained. The influence of the electric current and voltage drop on main electric contact of the circuit breaker has been investigated. To validate the three-dimensional thermal model, some experimental tests have been done. There is a good correlation between experimental and simulation results.

Keywords: Current path, power circuit breakers, temperature distribution, thermal analysis.

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Authors: Rohana Mahmud, Hairul Aysa Abdul Halim Sithiq, Haryuna Mohd Taharim

Abstract:

In this paper, the authors present architecture of a multi agent consultation system for obesity related problems, which hybrid the technology of an expert system (ES) and an intelligent agent (IA). The strength of the ES which is capable of pulling the expert knowledge is consulted and presented to the end user via the autonomous and friendly pushing environment of the intelligent agent.

Keywords: Expert System, Hybrid Technology, Intelligent Agent, Medical Informatics, Multi Agent Consultation System.

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Authors: Shahram Jafari, Mohammad-Ali Nikouei Mahani, Mohammad Arabnezhad, Mahdi Sharifi

Abstract:

Car accident is one of the major causes of death in many countries. Many researchers have attempted to design and develop techniques to increase car safety in the past recent years. In spite of all the efforts, it is still challenging to design a system adaptive to the driver rather than the automotive characteristics. In this paper, the adaptive car safety system is explained which attempts to find a balance.

Keywords: Analog to Digital Converter (ADC), AdaptiveCar Safety System, Multi-Media Card (MMC).

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Authors: Reza Hossseynie, Amir Jafari

Abstract:

This paper presents a method for steering velocity bounded mobile robots in environments with partially known stationary obstacles. The exact location of obstacles is unknown and only a probability distribution associated with the location of the obstacles is known. Kinematic model of a 2-wheeled differential drive robot is used as the model of mobile robot. The presented control strategy uses the Artificial Potential Field (APF) method for devising a desired direction of movement for the robot at each instant of time while the Constrained Directions Control (CDC) uses the generated direction to produce the control signals required for steering the robot. The location of each obstacle is considered to be the mean value of the 2D probability distribution and similarly, the magnitude of the electric charge in the APF is set as the trace of covariance matrix of the location probability distribution. The method not only captures the challenges of planning the path (i.e. probabilistic nature of the location of unknown obstacles), but it also addresses the output saturation which is considered to be an important issue from the control perspective. Moreover, velocity of the robot can be controlled during the steering. For example, the velocity of robot can be reduced in close vicinity of obstacles and target to ensure safety. Finally, the control strategy is simulated for different scenarios to show how the method can be put into practice.

Keywords: Steering, obstacle avoidance, mobile robots, constrained directions control, artificial potential field.

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Authors: Mansour A. Mohamed, George G. Karady, Ali M. Yousef

Abstract:

This paper proposes transient angle stability agents to enhance power system stability. The proposed transient angle stability agents divided into two strategy agents. The first strategy agent is a prediction agent that will predict power system instability. According to the prediction agent-s output, the second strategy agent, which is a control agent, is automatically calculating the amount of active power reduction that can stabilize the system and initiating a control action. The control action considered is turbine fast valving. The proposed strategies are applied to a realistic power system, the IEEE 50- generator system. Results show that the proposed technique can be used on-line for power system instability prediction and control.

Keywords: Multi-agents, Fast Valving, Power System Transient Stability, Prediction methods,

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Authors: Nuray Uçar, Mervin Ölmez, Özge Alptoğa, Nilgün K. Yavuz, Ayşen Önen

Abstract:

In recent years, research on continuous graphene oxide fibers has been intensified. Therefore, many factors of production stages are being studied. In this study, the effect of exfoliation time and presence of activated carbon particle (ACP) on graphene oxide fiber’s properties has been analyzed. It has been seen that cross-sectional appearance of sample with ACP is harsh and porous because of ACP. The addition of ACP did not change the electrical conductivity. However, ACP results in an enormous decrease of mechanical properties. Longer exfoliation time results to higher crystallinity degree, C/O ratio and less d space between layers. The breaking strength and electrical conductivity of sample with less exfoliation time is some higher than sample with high exfoliation time.

Keywords: Activated carbon, coagulation by wet spinning, exfoliation, graphene oxide fiber.

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Authors: Wang Xu, Yao Yangyang, Lin Ying, Wang Zhenzhen

Abstract:

Intelligent Transportation System integrates various modern advanced technologies into the ground transportation system, and it will be the goal of urban transport system in the future because of its comprehensive effects. However, it also brings some problems, such as project performance assessment, fairness of benefiting groups, fund management, which are directly related to its operation and implementation. Wuhan has difficulties in organizing transportation because of its nature feature (river and lake), therefore, calling Service of Taxi plays an important role in transportation. This paper researches on calling Service of Taxi in Wuhan, based on quantitative and qualitative analysis. It analyzes its operations management systematically, including business model, finance, usage analysis and users evaluation. As for business model, it is that the government leads the operation at the initial stage, and the third part dominates the operation at the mature stage, which not only eases the pressure of the third part and benefits the spread of the calling service at the initial stage, but also alleviates financial pressure of government and improve the efficiency of the operation at the mature stage. As for finance, it draws that this service will bring heavy financial burden of equipments, but it will be alleviated in the future because of its spread. As for usage analysis, through data comparison, this service can bring some benefits for taxi drivers, and time and spatial distribution of usage have certain features. As for user evaluation, it analyzes using group and the reason why choosing it. At last, according to the analysis above, the paper puts forward the potentials, limitations, and future development strategies for it.

Keywords: Assessment, Calling service of taxi, Operations management, Strategies, Using groups.

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Authors: Won-Ho Kim, Chang-Ho Hyun, Moon-Jung Kim

Abstract:

In this paper, zigbee communication based wireless energy surveillance system is presented. The proposed system consists of multiple energy surveillance devices and an energy surveillance monitor. Each different standby power-off value of electric device is set automatically by using learning function of energy surveillance device. Thus adaptive standby power-off function provides user convenience and it maximizes the energy savings. Also, power consumption monitoring function is helpful to reduce inefficient energy consumption in home. The zigbee throughput simulator is designed to evaluate minimum transmission power and maximum allowable information quantity in the proposed system. The test result of prototype has been satisfied all the requirements. The proposed system has confirmed that can be used as an intelligent energy surveillance system for energy savings in home or office.

Keywords: Energy monitoring system, Energy surveillance system, Energy sensor network, Energy savings.

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Authors: Shilpa N. Kulkarni, Sujata R. Patrikar

Abstract:

In the present work, an attempt is made to understand electromagnetic field confinement in a subwavelength waveguide structure using concepts of quantum mechanics. Evanescent field in the waveguide is looked as inability of the photon to get confined in the waveguide core and uncertainty of position is assigned to it. The momentum uncertainty is calculated from position uncertainty. Schrödinger wave equation for the photon is written by incorporating position-momentum uncertainty. The equation is solved and field distribution in the waveguide is obtained. The field distribution and power confinement is compared with conventional waveguide theory. They were found in good agreement with each other.

Keywords: photon localization in waveguide, photon tunneling, quantum confinement of light, Schrödinger wave equation, uncertainty principle.

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Authors: Elyse Sili, Jean Pascal Cambronne

Abstract:

In aircraft applications, according to the nature of electrical equipment its location may be in unpressurized area or very close to the engine; thus, the environmental conditions may change from atmospheric pressure to less than 100 mbar, and the temperature may be higher than the ambient one as in most real working conditions of electrical equipment. Then, the classical Paschen curve has to be replotted since these parameters may affect the discharge ignition voltage. In this paper, we firstly investigate the domain of validity of two corrective expressions on the Paschen-s law found in the literature, in case of changing the air environment and known as Peek and Dunbar corrections. Results show that these corrections are no longer valid for combined variation of temperature and pressure. After that, a new empirical expression for breakdown voltage is proposed and is validated in the case of combined variations of temperature and pressure.

Keywords: Gas breakdown, gas density, Paschen curve, temperature effects

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Authors: S. K. Fasogbon, T. M. Oladosu, O. S. Osasuyi

Abstract:

Plastic extrusion has been an important process of plastic production since 19^th century. Meanwhile, in plastic extrusion process, wide variation in temperature along the extrudate usually leads to scraps formation on the side of finished products. To avoid this situation, there is a need to deeply understand temperature distribution along the extrudate in plastic extrusion process. This work developed an analytical model that predicts the temperature distribution over the billet (the polymers melt) along the extrudate during extrusion process with the limitation that the polymer in question does not cover biopolymer such as DNA. The model was solved and simulated. Results for two different plastic materials (polyvinylchloride and polycarbonate) using self-developed MATLAB code and a commercially developed software (ANSYS) were generated and ultimately compared. It was observed that there is a thermodynamic heat transfer from the entry level of the billet into the die down to the end of it. The graph plots indicate a natural exponential decay of temperature with time and along the die length, with the temperature being 413 K and 474 K for polyvinylchloride and polycarbonate respectively at the entry level and 299.3 K and 328.8 K at the exit when the temperature of the surrounding was 298 K. The extrusion model was validated by comparison of MATLAB code simulation with a commercially available ANSYS simulation and the results favourably agree. This work concludes that the developed mathematical model and the self-generated MATLAB code are reliable tools in predicting temperature distribution along the extrudate in plastic extrusion process.

Keywords: ANSYS, extrusion process, MATLAB, plastic making, thermal analysis.

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Authors: Dimitar Karastoyanov, Vladimir Monov

Abstract:

The paper is concerned with the state examination as well as the problems during the post surgical (orthopedic) rehabilitation of the knee and ankle joint. An observation of the current appliances for a passive rehabilitation devices is presented. The major necessary and basic features of the intelligent rehabilitation devices are considered. An approach for a new intelligent appliance is suggested. The main advantages of the device are: both active as well as passive rehabilitation of the patient based on the human - patient reactions and a real time feedback. The basic components: controller; electrical motor; encoder, force – torque sensor are discussed in details. The main modes of operation of the device are considered.

Keywords: Ankle, knee, rehabilitation, computer control.

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Authors: Pushkar Umaranikar, Chris Pollett

Abstract:

An online advertisement system and its implementation for the Yioop open source search engine are presented. This system supports both selling advertisements and displaying them within search results. The selling of advertisements is done using a system to auction off daily impressions for keyword searches. This is an open, ascending price auction system in which all accepted bids will receive a fraction of the auctioned day’s impressions. New bids in our system are required to be at least one half of the sum of all previous bids ensuring the number of accepted bids is logarithmic in the total ad spend on a keyword for a day. The mechanics of creating an advertisement, attaching keywords to it, and adding it to an advertisement inventory are described. The algorithm used to go from accepted bids for a keyword to which ads are displayed at search time is also presented. We discuss properties of our system and compare it to existing auction systems and systems for selling online advertisements.

Keywords: Online markets, online ad system, online auctions, search engines.

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Authors: D. B. Gohil

Abstract:

Closed die forging is a very complex process, and measurement of actual forces for real material is difficult and time consuming. Hence, the modelling technique has taken the advantage of carrying out the experimentation with the proper model material which needs lesser forces and relatively low temperature. The results of experiments on the model material then may be correlated with the actual material by using the theory of similarity. There are several methods available to resolve the complexity involved in the closed die forging process. Finite Element Method (FEM) and Finite Difference Method (FDM) are relatively difficult as compared to the slab method. The slab method is very popular and very widely used by the people working on shop floor because it is relatively easy to apply and reasonably accurate for most of the common forging load requirement computations.

Keywords: Experimentation, forging, process modeling, strain distribution.

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Authors: Tae H. Lee, J.H. Park, S.M. Lee, H.Y. Jung

Abstract:

This paper addresses functional projective lag synchronization of Lorenz system with four unknown parameters, where the output of the master system lags behind the output of the slave system proportionally. For this purpose, an adaptive control law is proposed to make the states of two identical Lorenz systems asymptotically synchronize up. Based on Lyapunov stability theory, a novel criterion is given for asymptotical stability of the null solution of an error dynamics. Finally, some numerical examples are provided to show the effectiveness of our results.

Keywords: Adaptive function projective synchronization, Chaotic system, Lag synchronization, Lyapunov method

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Authors: Napat Watjanatepin, Wikorn Wong-SatieanNapat Watjanatepin, Wikorn Wong-Satiean

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to design and construct the PV-Wind hybrid autonomous system for the greenhouse plantation, and analyze the technical performance of the PV-Wind energy system. This design depends on the water consumption in the greenhouse by using 24 of the fogging mist each with the capability of 24 liter/min. The operating time is 4 times per day, each round for 15 min. The fogging system is being driven by water pump with AC motor rating 0.5 hp. The load energy consumed is around 1.125 kWh/d. The designing results of the PV-Wind hybrid energy system is that sufficient energy could be generated by this system. The results of this study can be applied as a technical data reference for other areas in the central part of Thailand.

Keywords: Central part of Thailand, fogging system, greenhouse plantation, PV-Wind hybrid autonomous system.

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Authors: B. Selma, S. Chouraqui

Abstract:

Nonlinear system identification is becoming an important tool which can be used to improve control performance. This paper describes the application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model for controlling a car. The vehicle must follow a predefined path by supervised learning. Backpropagation gradient descent method was performed to train the ANFIS system. The performance of the ANFIS model was evaluated in terms of training performance and classification accuracies and the results confirmed that the proposed ANFIS model has potential in controlling the non linear system.

Keywords: Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), Fuzzy logic, neural network, nonlinear system, control

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Authors: Ryosuke Ito, Goro Obinata, Chikara Nagai, Youngwoo Kim

Abstract:

This paper proposes a new parameter identification method based on Linear Fractional Transformation (LFT). It is assumed that the target linear system includes unknown parameters. The parameter deviations are separated from a nominal system via LFT, and identified by organizing I/O signals around the separated deviations of the real system. The purpose of this paper is to apply LFT to simultaneously identify the parameter deviations in systems with fewer outputs than unknown parameters. As a fundamental example, this method is implemented to one degree of freedom vibratory system. Via LFT, all physical parameters were simultaneously identified in this system. Then, numerical simulations were conducted for this system to verify the results. This study shows that all the physical parameters of a system with fewer outputs than unknown parameters can be effectively identified simultaneously using LFT.

Keywords: Identification, Linear Fractional Transformation, Right inverse system

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Authors: Vineet Srivastava, Pulak M. Pandey

Abstract:

Electrical discharge machining (EDM) is well established machining technique mainly used to machine complex geometries on difficult-to-machine materials and high strength temperature resistant alloys. In the present research, the objective is to study the shape of the electrode and establish the application of liquid nitrogen in reducing distortion of the electrode during electrical discharge machining of M2 grade high speed steel using copper electrodes. Study of roundness was performed on the electrode to observe the shape of the electrode for both conventional EDM and EDM with cryogenically cooled electrode. Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) has been used to study the shape of electrode tip. The effect of various parameters such as discharge current and pulse on time has been studied to understand the behavior of distortion of electrode. It has been concluded that the shape retention is better in case of liquid nitrogen cooled electrode.

Keywords: cryogenic cooling, EDM, electrode shape, out of roundness.

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Authors: Dong Ming, Chen Haipeng

Abstract:

POS (also been called DGPS/IMU) technique can obtain the Exterior Orientation Elements of aerial photo, so the triangulation and DLG production using POS can save large numbers of ground control points (GCP), and this will improve the produce efficiency of DLG and reduce the cost of collecting GCP. This paper mainly research on POS technique in production of 1:10 000 scale DLG on GCP distribution. We designed 23 kinds of ground control points distribution schemes, using integrated sensor direction method to do the triangulation experiments, based on the results of triangulation, we produce a map with the scale of 1:10 000 and test its accuracy. This paper put forward appropriate GCP distributing schemes by experiments and research above, and made preparations for the application of POS technique on photogrammetry 4D data production.

Keywords: POS, IMU, DGPS, DLG, ground control point, triangulation

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Authors: Nuseiba M. Altarawneh, Suhuai Luo, Brian Regan, Guijin Tang

Abstract:

Liver segmentation from medical images poses more challenges than analogous segmentations of other organs. This contribution introduces a liver segmentation method from a series of computer tomography images. Overall, we present a novel method for segmenting liver by coupling density matching with shape priors. Density matching signifies a tracking method which operates via maximizing the Bhattacharyya similarity measure between the photometric distribution from an estimated image region and a model photometric distribution. Density matching controls the direction of the evolution process and slows down the evolving contour in regions with weak edges. The shape prior improves the robustness of density matching and discourages the evolving contour from exceeding liver’s boundaries at regions with weak boundaries. The model is implemented using a modified distance regularized level set (DRLS) model. The experimental results show that the method achieves a satisfactory result. By comparing with the original DRLS model, it is evident that the proposed model herein is more effective in addressing the over segmentation problem. Finally, we gauge our performance of our model against matrices comprising of accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity.

Keywords: Bhattacharyya distance, distance regularized level set (DRLS) model, liver segmentation, level set method.

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Authors: Smko Zangana, Ergun Ercelebi

Abstract:

The alternating current is the main power in all industries and other aspects especially for the short and mid distances, but as far as long a distance which exceeds 500 KMs, using the alternating current technically will face many difficulties and more costs because it's difficult to control the current and also other restrictions. Therefore, recently those reasons led to building transmission lines HVDC to transmit power for long distances. This document presents technical comparison and assessments for power transmission system among distances either ways and studying the stability of the system regarding the proportion of losses in the actual power sent and received between both sides in different systems and also categorizing filters used in the HVDC system and its impact and effect on reducing Harmonic in the power transmission. MATLAB /Simulink simulation software is used to simulate both HVAC & HVDC power transmission system topologies.

Keywords: HVAC power system, HVDC power system, power system simulation (MATLAB), the alternating current, voltage stability.

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Authors: A.O. Ladjedel, B.T.Yahiaoui, C.L.Adjlout, D.O.Imine

Abstract:

In the present paper; an experimental and numerical investigations of drag reduction on a grooved circular cylinder have been performed. The experiments were carried out in closed circuit subsonic wind tunnel (TE44); the pressure distribution on the cylinder was conducted using a TE44DPS differential pressure scanner and the drag forces were measured using the TE81 balance. The display unit is linked to a computer, loaded with DATASLIM software for data analysis and logging of result. The numerical study was performed using the code ANSYS FLUENT solving the Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations. The k-ε and k- ω SST models were tested. The results obtained from the experimental and numerical investigations have showed a reduction in the drag when using longitudinal grooves namely 2 and 6 on the cylinder.

Keywords: Circular cylinder, Drag, grooves, pressure distribution

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Authors: Shahin Dezdar, Sulaiman Ainin

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to examine factors related to system environment (namely, system quality and vendor support) that influences ERP implementation success in Iranian companies. Implementation success is identified using user satisfaction and organizational impact perspective. The study adopts the survey questionnaire approach to collect empirical data. The questionnaire was distributed to ERP users and a total of 384 responses were used for analysis. The results illustrated that both system quality and vendor support have significant effect on ERP implementation success. This implies that companies must ensure they source for the best available system and a vendor that is dependable, reliable and trustworthy.

Keywords: Enterprise resource planning (ERP), Iran, system quality, vendor support.

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Authors: N. H. Adenan, M. S. M. Noorani

Abstract:

River flow prediction is an essential tool to ensure proper management of water resources and the optimal distribution of water to consumers. This study presents an analysis and prediction by using nonlinear prediction method with monthly river flow data for Tanjung Tualang from 1976 to 2006. Nonlinear prediction method involves the reconstruction of phase space and local linear approximation approach. The reconstruction of phase space involves the reconstruction of one-dimension (the observed 287 months of data) in a multidimensional phase space to reveal the dynamics of the system. The revenue of phase space reconstruction is used to predict the next 72 months. A comparison of prediction performance based on correlation coefficient (CC) and root mean square error (RMSE) was employed to compare prediction performance for the nonlinear prediction method, ARIMA and SVM. Prediction performance comparisons show that the prediction results using the nonlinear prediction method are better than ARIMA and SVM. Therefore, the results of this study could be used to develop an efficient water management system to optimize the allocation of water resources.

Keywords: River flow, nonlinear prediction method, phase space, local linear approximation.

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