Search results for: high dimensional data

Authors: Melike Şah, Konstantin Y.Degtiarev

Abstract:

This paper proposes a novel improvement of forecasting approach based on using time-invariant fuzzy time series. In contrast to traditional forecasting methods, fuzzy time series can be also applied to problems, in which historical data are linguistic values. It is shown that proposed time-invariant method improves the performance of forecasting process. Further, the effect of using different number of fuzzy sets is tested as well. As with the most of cited papers, historical enrollment of the University of Alabama is used in this study to illustrate the forecasting process. Subsequently, the performance of the proposed method is compared with existing fuzzy time series time-invariant models based on forecasting accuracy. It reveals a certain performance superiority of the proposed method over methods described in the literature.

Keywords: Forecasting, fuzzy time series, linguistic values, student enrollment, time-invariant model.

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Authors: Kunya Bowornchockchai

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to forecast the monthly exchange rate between Thai baht and the US dollar and to compare two forecasting methods. The methods are Box-Jenkins’ method and Holt’s method. Results show that the Box-Jenkins’ method is the most suitable method for the monthly Exchange Rate between Thai Baht and the US Dollar. The suitable forecasting model is ARIMA (1,1,0)  without constant and the forecasting equation is Y_t = Y_t-1 + 0.3691 (Y_t-1 - Y_t-2) When Y_t  is the time series data at time t, respectively.

Keywords: Box–Jenkins Method, Holt’s Method, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).

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Authors: Md Abid Khan

Abstract:

A recognized engineering challenge is related to personnel protection from fatal arc flash incident energy in the line side of the 480-volt switchgears incomer breakers during maintenance activities. The incident energy is typically high due to slow fault clearance and it can be higher than the available personnel protective equipment (PPE) ratings. A fault on the line side of the 480 Volt breaker is cleared by breakers or fuses in the upstream higher voltage system (4160 Volt or higher). The current reflection in the higher voltage upstream system for a fault in the 480-volt switchgear is low, the clearance time is slower and the inversely proportional incident energy is hence higher. The installation of overcurrent protection at 480-volt system upstream of the incomer breaker will operate fast enough and trips the upstream higher voltage breaker when a fault develops at the incomer breaker. Therefore, fault current reduction as reflected in the upstream higher voltage system is eliminated. Since the fast overcurrent protection is permanently installed, it is always functional, do not require human interventions and eliminates exposure to human errors. It is installed at the maintenance activity location and its operations can be locally monitored by craftsmen during maintenance activities.

Keywords: Arc flash, mitigation, maintenance switch, energy level.

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Authors: Chandrika M.J., Lariyah M.S., Alicia Y.C. Tang

Abstract:

Ontology is widely being used as a tool for organizing information, creating the relation between the subjects within the defined knowledge domain area. Various fields such as Civil, Biology, and Management have successful integrated ontology in decision support systems for managing domain knowledge and to assist their decision makers. Gross pollutant traps (GPT) are devices used in trapping and preventing large items or hazardous particles in polluting and entering our waterways. However choosing and determining GPT is a challenge in Malaysia as there are inadequate GPT data repositories being captured and shared. Hence ontology is needed to capture, organize and represent this knowledge into meaningful information which can be contributed to the efficiency of GPT selection in Malaysia urbanization. A GPT Ontology framework is therefore built as the first step to capture GPT knowledge which will then be integrated into the decision support system. This paper will provide several examples of the GPT ontology, and explain how it is constructed by using the Protégé tool.

Keywords: Gross pollutant Trap, Ontology, Protégé.

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Authors: Cheng Fang Hsu, Shinn-Jong Lin

Abstract:

This paper aims at a new challenge of customer satisfaction on mobile customer relationship management. In this paper presents a conceptualization of mCRM on its unique characteristics of customer satisfaction. Also, this paper develops an empirical framework in conception of customer satisfaction in mCRM. A single-case study is applied as the methodology. In order to gain an overall view of the empirical case, this paper accesses to invisible and important information of company in this investigation. Interview is the key data source form the main informants of the company through which the issues are identified and the proposed framework is built. It supports the development of customer satisfaction in mCRM; links this theoretical framework into practice; and provides the direction for future research. Therefore, this paper is very useful for the industries as it helps them to understand how customer satisfaction changes the mCRM structure and increase the business competitive advantage. Finally, this paper provides a contribution in practice by linking a theoretical framework in conception of customer satisfaction in mCRM for companies to a practical real case.

Keywords: Customer Satisfaction; mCRM; MobileCommunication.

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Authors: Mohammed Alshehri, Steve Drew

Abstract:

More and more governments around the world are introducing e-government as a means of reducing costs, improving services, saving time and increasing effectiveness and efficiency in the public sector Therefore e-government has been identified as one of the top priorities for Saudi government and all its agencies. However, the adoption of e-government is facing many challenges and barriers such as technological, cultural, organizational, and social issues which must be considered and treated carefully by any government contemplating its adoption. This paper reports on a pilot study amongst online (e-ready) citizens to identify the challenges and barriers that affect the adoption of e-government services especially from their perspective in Saudi society. Based on the analysis of data collected from an online survey the researcher was able to identify some of the important barriers and challenges from the e-ready citizen perspective. As a result, this study has generated a list of possible strategies to move towards successful adoption of egovernment services in Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: Challenges, E-government services, adoption, SaudiArabia

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Authors: Nareelux Suwannobol, Supap Chobkhayan

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to investigate the pregnancy outcomes of teenage mothers at DanKhunThot hospital, Nakhon Ratchasima, Thailand. A retrospective descriptive study was conducted in 573 of teenage pregnant from charts reviewed from 1st October 2010-31st March, 2012. Data were analyzed by frequency distribution, mean and Standard Deviation. The results shown several problems and negatives outcomes of pregnancy in teenager such as not attended prenatal care, Low birth weight infants, death fetus in utero and other complications. The results of this study can be utilized in the development of prenatal, perinatal and post natal care services, especially in DanKhunthot Hospital contexts. Moreover, the results were present to the District Health Care committees in order to enhance health care service system for teenage pregnancy of DanKhunthot District in further.

Keywords: Teenage mothers, Pregnancy outcome, Neonatal outcomes, Maternal outcomes.

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Zamani Kouhpanji

Abstract:

Characterizing the fatigue and fracture properties of nanostructures is one of the most challenging tasks in nanoscience and nanotechnology due to lack of a MEMS/NEMS device for generating uniform cyclic loadings at high frequencies. Here, the dynamic response of a recently proposed MEMS/NEMS device under different inputs signals is completely investigated. This MEMS/NEMS device is designed and modeled based on the electromagnetic force induced between paired parallel wires carrying electrical currents, known as Ampere’s Force Law (AFL). Since this MEMS/NEMS device only uses two paired wires for actuation part and sensing part, it represents highly sensitive and linear response for nanostructures with any stiffness and shapes (single or arrays of nanowires, nanotubes, nanosheets or nanowalls). In addition to studying the maximum gains at different resonance frequencies of the MEMS/NEMS device, its dynamical responses are investigated for different inputs and nanostructure properties to demonstrate the capability, usability, and reliability of the device for wide range of nanostructures. This MEMS/NEMS device can be readily integrated into SEM/TEM instruments to provide real time study of the fatigue and fracture properties of nanostructures as well as their softening or hardening behaviors, and initiation and/or propagation of nanocracks in them.

Keywords: Ampere’s force law, dynamical response, fatigue and fracture characterization, paired wire actuators and sensors, MEMS/NEMS devices.

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Authors: Ahmad Aroziki Abdul Aziz, Sakinah Mohd Alauddin, Ruzitah Mohd Salleh, Mohammed Iqbal Shueb

Abstract:

This paper illustrates the effect of nano Magnesium Hydroxide (MH) loading on the thermal properties of Low Density Polyethylene (LDPE)/Poly (ethylene-co vinyl acetate) (EVA) nano composite. Thermal studies were conducted, as it understanding is vital for preliminary development of new polymeric systems. Thermal analysis of nanocomposite was conducted using thermo gravimetric analysis (TGA), and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). Major finding of TGA indicated two main stages of degradation process found at (350 ± 25oC) and (480 ± 25oC) respectively. Nano metal filler expressed better fire resistance as it stand over high degree of temperature. Furthermore, DSC analysis provided a stable glass temperature around 51 (±1oC) and captured double melting point at 84 (±2oC) and 108 (±2oC). This binary melting point reflects the modification of nano filler to the polymer matrix forming melting crystals of folded and extended chain. The percent crystallinity of the samples grew vividly with increasing filler content. Overall, increasing the filler loading improved the degradation temperature and weight loss evidently and a better process and phase stability was captured in DSC.

Keywords: Cable and Wire, LDPE/EVA, Nano MH, Nano Particles, Thermal properties.

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Authors: Ni Ni Soe , Masahiro Nakagawa

Abstract:

Functional near infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) is a practical non-invasive optical technique to detect characteristic of hemoglobin density dynamics response during functional activation of the cerebral cortex. In this paper, fNIRS measurements were made in the area of motor cortex from C4 position according to international 10-20 system. Three subjects, aged 23 - 30 years, were participated in the experiment. The aim of this paper was to evaluate the effects of different motor activation tasks of the hemoglobin density dynamics of fNIRS signal. The chaotic concept based on deterministic dynamics is an important feature in biological signal analysis. This paper employs the chaotic properties which is a novel method of nonlinear analysis, to analyze and to quantify the chaotic property in the time series of the hemoglobin dynamics of the various motor imagery tasks of fNIRS signal. Usually, hemoglobin density in the human brain cortex is found to change slowly in time. An inevitable noise caused by various factors is to be included in a signal. So, principle component analysis method (PCA) is utilized to remove high frequency component. The phase pace is reconstructed and evaluated the Lyapunov spectrum, and Lyapunov dimensions. From the experimental results, it can be conclude that the signals measured by fNIRS are chaotic.

Keywords: Chaos, hemoglobin, Lyapunov spectrum, motorimagery, near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS), principal componentanalysis (PCA).

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Authors: Koray U. Erbas

Abstract:

Neural networks are appealing for many applications since they are able to learn complex non-linear relationships between input and output data. As the number of neurons and layers in a neural network increase, it is possible to represent more complex relationships with automatically extracted features. Nowadays Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are widely used in Computer Vision problems such as; classification, object detection, segmentation image editing etc. In this work, Facial Emotion Recognition task is performed by proposed Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)-based DNN architecture using FER2013 Dataset. Moreover, the effects of different hyperparameters (activation function, kernel size, initializer, batch size and network size) are investigated and ablation study results for Pooling Layer, Dropout and Batch Normalization are presented.

Keywords: Convolutional Neural Network, Deep Learning, Deep Learning Based FER, Facial Emotion Recognition.

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Authors: E. Pikushchak, J. Dueck, L. Minkov

Abstract:

In hydrocyclones, the particle separation efficiency is limited by the suspended fine particles, which are discharged with the coarse product in the underflow. It is well known that injecting water in the conical part of the cyclone reduces the fine particle fraction in the underflow. This paper presents a mathematical model that simulates the water injection in the conical component. The model accounts for the fluid flow and the particle motion. Particle interaction, due to hindered settling caused by increased density and viscosity of the suspension, and fine particle entrainment by settling coarse particles are included in the model. Water injection in the conical part of the hydrocyclone is performed to reduce fine particle discharge in the underflow. The model demonstrates the impact of the injection rate, injection velocity, and injection location on the shape of the partition curve. The simulations are compared with experimental data of a 50-mm cyclone.

Keywords: Classification, fine particle processing, hydrocyclone, water injection.

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Authors: Leila Vafajoo, Farhad Khorasheh, Mehrnoosh Hamzezadeh Nakhjavani, Moslem Fattahi

Abstract:

In the present study, a procedure was developed to determine the optimum reaction rate constants in generalized Arrhenius form and optimized through the Nelder-Mead method. For this purpose, a comprehensive mathematical model of a fixed bed reactor for dehydrogenation of heavy paraffins over Pt–Sn/Al2O3 catalyst was developed. Utilizing appropriate kinetic rate expressions for the main dehydrogenation reaction as well as side reactions and catalyst deactivation, a detailed model for the radial flow reactor was obtained. The reactor model composed of a set of partial differential equations (PDE), ordinary differential equations (ODE) as well as algebraic equations all of which were solved numerically to determine variations in components- concentrations in term of mole percents as a function of time and reactor radius. It was demonstrated that most significant variations observed at the entrance of the bed and the initial olefin production obtained was rather high. The aforementioned method utilized a direct-search optimization algorithm along with the numerical solution of the governing differential equations. The usefulness and validity of the method was demonstrated by comparing the predicted values of the kinetic constants using the proposed method with a series of experimental values reported in the literature for different systems.

Keywords: Dehydrogenation, Pt-Sn/Al2O3 Catalyst, Modeling, Nelder-Mead, Optimization

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Authors: A. Greco, N. Mammone, F.C. Morabito, M.Versaci

Abstract:

This paper is mainly concerned with the application of a novel technique of data interpretation for classifying measurements of plasma columns in Tokamak reactors for nuclear fusion applications. The proposed method exploits several concepts derived from soft computing theory. In particular, Artificial Neural Networks and Multi-Class Support Vector Machines have been exploited to classify magnetic variables useful to determine shape and position of the plasma with a reduced computational complexity. The proposed technique is used to analyze simulated databases of plasma equilibria based on ITER geometry configuration. As well as demonstrating the successful recovery of scalar equilibrium parameters, we show that the technique can yield practical advantages compared with earlier methods.

Keywords: Tokamak, Classification, Artificial Neural Network, Support Vector Machines.

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Authors: Sanaa Ali Ahmed Alrashid

Abstract:

The present study aimed to investigate the effect of synchronous music in Gymnastics' motor skill performance among undergraduate female students in physical education college at Basra University. The researcher used experimental design. 20 female students of physical education divided equally into two groups, (10) experimental group with music, (10) control group without music. All participants complete 6 weeks in testing. Data analysis based on T-test shows significant difference at (α = 0.05) in all skills level between experimental and control groups in favor of experimental group. Results of this study contribute to developing the role of synchronous music in improving gymnastic skills performance.

Keywords: Performance, motor skill, music, synchronous.

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Authors: Ellie Abdi, Susana Juniu

Abstract:

The purpose of this presentation is to describe an interdisciplinary teaching program that integrates physical education concepts using a philosophical approach. The presentation includes a review of: a) the philosophy of American education, b) the philosophy of sports and physical education, c) the interdisciplinary physical education program, d) professional development programs, (e) the Success of this physical education program, f) future of physical education. This unique interdisciplinary program has been implemented in an urban school physical education discipline in East Orange, New Jersey for over 10 years.

During the program the students realize that the bodies go through different experiences. The body becomes a place where a child can recognize in an enjoyable way to express and perceive particular feelings or mental states. Children may distinguish themselves to have high abilities in the social or other domains but low abilities in the field of athletics.

The goal of this program for the individuals is to discover new skills, develop and demonstrate age appropriate mastery level at different tasks, therefore the program consists of 9 to 12 sports, including many game. Each successful experience increases the awareness ability. Engaging in sports and physical activities are social movements involving groups of children in situations such as teams, friends, and recreational settings, which serve as a primary socializing agent for teaching interpersonal skills. As a result of this presentation the audience will reflect and explore how to structure a physical education program to integrate interdisciplinary subjects with philosophical concepts.

Keywords: Interdisciplinary disciplines, philosophical concepts, physical education.

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Authors: Ching-Sheng Wang, Yu-Hung Su, Ching-Yang Hong

Abstract:

This paper takes the actual scene of Aletheia University campus – the Class 2 national monument, the first educational institute in northern Taiwan as an example, to present a 3D virtual navigation system which supports user positioning and pre-download mechanism. The proposed system was designed based on the principle of Voronoi Diagra) to divide the virtual scenes and its multimedia information, which combining outdoor GPS positioning and the indoor RFID location detecting function. When users carry mobile equipments such as notebook computer, UMPC, EeePC...etc., walking around the actual scenes of indoor and outdoor areas of campus, this system can automatically detect the moving path of users and pre-download the needed data so that users will have a smooth and seamless navigation without waiting.

Keywords: GPS, Positioning, RFID, Virtual Navigation, Voronoi Diagram.

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Authors: M. Sarai Atab, A. Smallbone, A. P. Roskilly

Abstract:

A thermodynamic study is performed on the Reverse Osmosis (RO) desalination process for brackish water. The detailed RO model of thermodynamics properties with and without an energy recovery device was built in Simulink/MATLAB and validated against reported measurement data. The efficiency of desalination plants can be estimated by both the first and second laws of thermodynamics. While the first law focuses on the quantity of energy, the second law analysis (i.e. exergy analysis) introduces quality. This paper used the Main Outfall Drain in Iraq as a case study to conduct energy and exergy analysis of RO process. The result shows that it is feasible to use energy recovery method for reverse osmosis with salinity less than 15000 ppm as the exergy efficiency increases twice. Moreover, this analysis shows that the highest exergy destruction occurs in the rejected water and lowest occurs in the permeate flow rate accounting 37% for 4.3% respectively.

Keywords: Brackish water, exergy, irrigation, reverse osmosis.

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Authors: Encarnación Álvarez, Rosa M. García-Fernández, Juan F. Muñoz

Abstract:

Estimation of a proportion has many applications in economics and social studies. A common application is the estimation of the low income proportion, which gives the proportion of people classified as poor into a population. In this paper, we present this poverty indicator and propose to use the logistic regression estimator for the problem of estimating the low income proportion. Various sampling designs are presented. Assuming a real data set obtained from the European Survey on Income and Living Conditions, Monte Carlo simulation studies are carried out to analyze the empirical performance of the logistic regression estimator under the various sampling designs considered in this paper. Results derived from Monte Carlo simulation studies indicate that the logistic regression estimator can be more accurate than the customary estimator under the various sampling designs considered in this paper. The stratified sampling design can also provide more accurate results.

Keywords:

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Authors: Gerrit Alves, Jürgen Roßmann, Roland Wischnewski

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Today, transport and logistic systems are often tightly integrated in the production. Lean production and just-in-time delivering create multiple constraints that have to be fulfilled. As transport networks often have evolved over time they are very expensive to change. This paper describes a discrete-event-simulation system which simulates transportation models using real time resource routing and collision avoidance. It allows for the specification of own control algorithms and validation of new strategies. The simulation is integrated into a virtual reality (VR) environment and can be displayed in 3-D to show the progress. Simulation elements can be selected through VR metaphors. All data gathered during the simulation can be presented as a detailed summary afterwards. The included cost-benefit calculation can help to optimize the financial outcome. The operation of this approach is shown by the example of a timber harvest simulation.

Keywords: Discrete-Event-Simulation, Logistic, Simulation, Virtual Reality.

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Authors: Nameesh Miglani, Rajeev Saha, R. S. Parihar

Abstract:

Estimation of the quality regarding higher education within a university is practically long drawn process besides being difficult to measure primarily due to lack of a standard scale. National Assessment and Accreditation Council (NAAC) evolved a methodology of assessment which involves self-appraisal by each university/college and an assessment of performance by an expert committee. The attributes involved in assessing a university may not be totally independent from each other thereby necessitating the consideration of interdependencies. The present study focuses on evaluation of assessment criteria using graph theoretic approach and fuzzy treatment of data collected from the students. The technique will provide a suitable platform to university management team to cross check assessment of education quality by considering interdependencies of the attributes using graph theory.

Keywords: Graph theory, NAAC accreditation criteria, Indian University accreditation process.

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Authors: M.V. Shyla, K.B. Naidu

Abstract:

The objective of this paper is to develop a computational model of human nasal cavity from computed tomography (CT) scans using MIMICS software. Computational fluid dynamic techniques were employed to understand nasal airflow. Gambit and Fluent software was used to perform CFD simulation. Velocity profiles, iteration plots, pressure distribution, streamline and pathline patterns for steady, laminar airflow inside the human nasal cavity of healthy and also infected persons are presented in detail. The implications for olfaction are visualized. Results are validated with the available numerical and experimental data. The graphs reveal that airflow varies with different anatomical nasal structures and only fraction of the inspired air reaches the olfactory region. The Deviations in the results suggest that the treatment of infected volunteers will improve the olfactory function.

Keywords: CFD techniques, Finite Volume Method, Fluid dynamic sniffing, Human nasal cavity.

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Authors: M. R. Vaezi, R. Ghasemi, A. Akramizadeh

Abstract:

Frequency stability of microgrids under islanded operation attracts particular attention recently. A new cooperative frequency control strategy based on centralized multi-agent system (CMAS) is proposed in this study. Based on this strategy, agents sent data and furthermore each component has its own to center operating decisions (MGCC).After deciding on the information, they are returned. Frequency control strategies include primary and secondary frequency control and disposal of multi-stage load in which this study will also provide a method and algorithm for load shedding. This could also be a big problem for the performance of micro-grid in times of disaster. The simulation results show the promising performance of the proposed structure of the controller based on multi agent systems.

Keywords: Frequency Control, Islanded Micro-grid, Load shedding, Multi-agent System.

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Authors: K. S. Chia, H. Abdul Rahim, R. Abdul Rahim

Abstract:

The Principal component regression (PCR) is a combination of principal component analysis (PCA) and multiple linear regression (MLR). The objective of this paper is to revise the use of PCR in shortwave near infrared (SWNIR) (750-1000nm) spectral analysis. The idea of PCR was explained mathematically and implemented in the non-destructive assessment of the soluble solid content (SSC) of pineapple based on SWNIR spectral data. PCR achieved satisfactory results in this application with root mean squared error of calibration (RMSEC) of 0.7611 Brix°, coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.5865 and root mean squared error of crossvalidation (RMSECV) of 0.8323 Brix° with principal components (PCs) of 14.

Keywords: Pineapple, Shortwave near infrared, Principal component regression, Non-invasive measurement; Soluble solids content

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Authors: Reza Keihani, Ali Bahadori-Jahromi, Timothy James Clacy

Abstract:

Plastic as an environmental burden is a well-rehearsed topic in the research area. This is due to its global demand and destructive impacts on the environment, which has been a significant concern to the governments. Typically, the use of plastic in the construction industry is seen across low-density, non-structural applications due to its diverse range of benefits including high strength-to-weight ratios, manipulability and durability. It can be said that with the level of plastic consumption experienced in the construction industry, an ongoing responsibility is shown for this sector to continually innovate alternatives for application of recycled plastic waste such as using plastic made replacement from polyethylene, polystyrene, polyvinyl and polypropylene in the concrete mix design. In this study, the impact of partially replaced fine aggregate with polypropylene in the concrete mix design was investigated to evaluate the concrete’s compressive strength by conducting an experimental work which comprises of six concrete mix batches with polypropylene replacements ranging from 0.5 to 3.0%. The results demonstrated a typical decline in the compressive strength with the addition of plastic aggregate, despite this reduction generally mitigated as the level of plastic in the concrete mix increased. Furthermore, two of the six plastic-containing concrete mixes tested in the current study exceeded the ST5 standardised prescribed concrete mix compressive strength requirement at 28-days containing 1.50% and 2.50% plastic aggregates, which demonstrated the potential for use of recycled polypropylene in structural applications, as a partial by mass, fine aggregate replacement in the concrete mix.

Keywords: Compressive strength, concrete, polypropylene, sustainability.

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Authors: Reihaneh Ahmadzadeh Ghavidel, Mehdi Ghiafeh Davoodi

Abstract:

The usefulness of weaning foods to meet the nutrient needs of children is well recognized, and most of them are precooked roller dried mixtures of cereal and/or legume flours which posses a high viscosity and bulk when reconstituted. The objective of this study was to formulate composite weaning foods using cereals, malted legumes and vegetable powders and analyze them for nutrients, functional properties and sensory attributes. Selected legumes (green gram and lentil) were germinated, dried and dehulled. Roasted wheat, rice, carrot powder and skim milk powder also were used. All the ingredients were mixed in different proportions to get four formulations, made into 30% slurry and dried in roller drier. The products were analyzed for proximate principles, mineral content, functional and sensory qualities. The results of analysis showed following range of constituents per 100g of formulations on dry weight basis, protein, 18.1-18.9 g ; fat, 0.78-1.36 g ; iron, 5.09-6.53 mg; calcium, 265-310 mg. The lowest water absorption capacity was in case of wheat green gram based and the highest was in rice lentil based sample. Overall sensory qualities of all foods were graded as “good" and “very good" with no significant differences. The results confirm that formulated weaning foods were nutritionally superior, functionally appropriate and organoleptically acceptable.

Keywords: malted legumes, weaning foods, nutrition, functional properties

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Authors: Ya-Fen Lee, Yun-Yao Chi

Abstract:

This paper aims to quantify the impact of natural disaster on tourism by the change of annual visitors to scenic spots. The data of visitors to Alishan, Sun Moon Lake, Sitou and Palace Museum in Taiwan during 1986 to 2012 year is collected, and the trend analysis is used to predict the annual visitors to these scenic spots. The findings show that 1999 Taiwan earthquake had significant effect on the visitors to Alishan, Sun Moon Lake and Sitou with an average impact of 55.75% during 1999 to 2000 year except for Palace Museum. The impact was greater as closer epicenter of 1999 earthquake. And the discovery period of visitors is about 2 to 9 years. Further, the impact of heavy rainfall on Alishan, Taiwan is estimated. As the accumulative rainfall reaches to 500 mm, the impact on visitors can be predicted. 

Keywords: Impact, Natural disaster, tourism, visitors.

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Authors: Tarek Mohammad

Abstract:

The amplitude response of infrared (IR) sensors depends on the reflectance properties of the target. Therefore, in order to use IR sensor for measuring distances accurately, prior knowledge of the surface must be known. This paper describes the Phong Illumination Model for determining the properties of a surface and subsequently calculating the distance to the surface. The angular position of the IR sensor is computed as normal to the surface for simplifying the calculation. Ultrasonic (US) sensor can provide the initial information on distance to obtain the parameters for this method. In addition, the experimental results obtained by using LabView are discussed. More care should be taken when placing the objects from the sensors during acquiring data since the small change in angle could show very different distance than the actual one. Since stereo camera vision systems do not perform well under some environmental conditions such as plain wall, glass surfaces, or poor lighting conditions, the IR and US sensors can be used additionally to improve the overall vision systems of mobile robots.

Keywords: Distance Measurement, Infrared sensor, Surface properties, Ultrasonic sensor.

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Authors: Pinho C., Madaleno M.

Abstract:

German electricity European options on futures using Lévy processes for the underlying asset are examined. Implied volatility evolution, under each of the considered models, is discussed after calibrating for the Merton jump diffusion (MJD), variance gamma (VG), normal inverse Gaussian (NIG), Carr, Geman, Madan and Yor (CGMY) and the Black and Scholes (B&S) model. Implied volatility is examined for the entire sample period, revealing some curious features about market evolution, where data fitting performances of the five models are compared. It is shown that variance gamma processes provide relatively better results and that implied volatility shows significant differences through time, having increasingly evolved. Volatility changes for changed uncertainty, or else, increasing futures prices and there is evidence for the need to account for seasonality when modelling both electricity spot/futures prices and volatility.

Keywords: Calibration, Electricity Markets, Implied Volatility, Lévy Models, Options on Futures, Pricing

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Authors: Christopher Reichstein, Ralf-Christian Härting, Martina Häußler

Abstract:

With a continuously increasing speed of information exchange on the World Wide Web, retailers in the E-Commerce sector are faced with immense possibilities regarding different online purchase processes like dynamic price settings. By use of Dynamic Pricing, retailers are able to set short time price changes in order to optimize producer surplus. The empirical research illustrates the basics of Dynamic Pricing and identifies six influencing factors of Dynamic Pricing. The results of a structural equation modeling approach show five main drivers increasing the potential of dynamic price settings in the E-Commerce. Influencing factors are the knowledge of customers’ individual willingness to pay, rising sales, the possibility of customization, the data volume and the information about competitors’ pricing strategy.

Keywords: E-commerce, empirical research, experts, Dynamic Pricing (DP), influencing factors, potentials.

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