Search results for: Probabilistic time-varying delays

Authors: Lili Wang

Abstract:

By using the estimation of the Cauchy matrix of linear impulsive differential equations and Banach fixed point theorem as well as Gronwall-Bellman’s inequality, some sufficient conditions are obtained for the existence and exponential stability of almost periodic solution for an impulsive neural networks with distributed delays. An example is presented to illustrate the feasibility and  effectiveness of the results.

Keywords: Almost periodic solution, Exponential stability, Neural networks, Impulses.

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Authors: Lili Wang, Meng Hu

Abstract:

In this paper, based on almost periodic functional hull theory and M-matrix theory, some sufficient conditions are established for the existence and uniqueness of positive almost periodic solution for a class of BAM neural networks with time-varying delays. An example is given to illustrate the main results.

Keywords: Delayed BAM neural networks, Hull theorem, Mmatrix, Almost periodic solution, Global exponential stability.

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Authors: Kreangkri Ratchagit

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with exponential stability and stabilization of switched linear systems with interval time-varying delays. The time delay is any continuous function belonging to a given interval, in which the lower bound of delay is not restricted to zero. By constructing a suitable augmented Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional combined with Leibniz-Newton-s formula, a switching rule for the exponential stability and stabilization of switched linear systems with interval time-varying delays and new delay-dependent sufficient conditions for the exponential stability and stabilization of the systems are first established in terms of LMIs. Numerical examples are included to illustrate the effectiveness of the results.

Keywords: Switching design, exponential stability and stabilization, switched linear systems, interval delay, Lyapunov function, linear matrix inequalities.

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

Abstract:

The principal purpose of this paper is to find the influence of maximum fatigue load on the probabilistic aspect of fatigue crack propagation life at a specified grown crack in magnesium alloys. The experiments of fatigue crack propagation are carried out in laboratory air under different conditions of the maximum fatigue loads to obtain the fatigue crack propagation data for the statistical analysis. In order to analyze the probabilistic aspect of fatigue crack propagation life, the goodness-of fit test for probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified grown crack is implemented through Anderson-Darling test. The good probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life is also verified under the conditions of the maximum fatigue loads.

Keywords: Fatigue crack propagation life, magnesium alloys, maximum fatigue load, probability.

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Authors: Marina Gorunescu, Florin Gorunescu, Kenneth Revett

Abstract:

Hepatocellular carcinoma, also called hepatoma, most commonly appears in a patient with chronic viral hepatitis. In patients with a higher suspicion of HCC, such as small or subtle rising of serum enzymes levels, the best method of diagnosis involves a CT scan of the abdomen, but only at high cost. The aim of this study was to increase the ability of the physician to early detect HCC, using a probabilistic neural network-based approach, in order to save time and hospital resources.

Keywords: Early HCC diagnosis, probabilistic neural network.

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Authors: S. Z. Moussavi, A. Badri, F. Rastegar Kashkooli

Abstract:

Wind farms (WFs) with high level of penetration are being established in power systems worldwide more rapidly than other renewable resources. The Independent System Operator (ISO), as a policy maker, should propose appropriate places for WF installation in order to maximize the benefits for the investors. There is also a possibility of congestion relief using the new installation of WFs which should be taken into account by the ISO when proposing the locations for WF installation. In this context, efficient wind farm (WF) placement method is proposed in order to reduce burdens on congested lines. Since the wind speed is a random variable and load forecasts also contain uncertainties, probabilistic approaches are used for this type of study. AC probabilistic optimal power flow (P-OPF) is formulated and solved using Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS). In order to reduce computation time, point estimate methods (PEM) are introduced as efficient alternative for time-demanding MCS. Subsequently, WF optimal placement is determined using generation shift distribution factors (GSDF) considering a new parameter entitled, wind availability factor (WAF). In order to obtain more realistic results, N-1 contingency analysis is employed to find the optimal size of WF, by means of line outage distribution factors (LODF). The IEEE 30-bus test system is used to show and compare the accuracy of proposed methodology.

Keywords: Probabilistic optimal power flow, Wind power, Pointestimate methods, Congestion management

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Authors: Milad Eghtedari Naeini, Gholamreza Heravi

Abstract:

In this paper, based on the past project cost and time performance, a model for forecasting project cost performance is developed. This study presents a probabilistic project control concept to assure an acceptable forecast of project cost performance. In this concept project activities are classified into sub-groups entitled control accounts. Then obtain the Stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), for each sub-group and the project SS-Curve is obtained by summing sub-groups- SS-Curves. In this model, project cost uncertainties are considered through Beta distribution functions of the project activities costs required to complete the project at every selected time sections through project accomplishment, which are extracted from a variety of sources. Based on this model, after a percentage of the project progress, the project performance is measured via Earned Value Management to adjust the primary cost probability distribution functions. Then, accordingly the future project cost performance is predicted by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method.

Keywords: Monte Carlo method, Probabilistic model, Project forecasting, Stochastic S-curve

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Authors: K. Jayakumar, S. Thangavel

Abstract:

In this paper proposed the effective fault detection of industrial drives by using Biorthogonal Posterior Vibration Signal-Data Probabilistic Wavelet Neural Network (BPPVS-WNN) system. This system was focused to reducing the current flow and to identify faults with lesser execution time with harmonic values obtained through fifth derivative. Initially, the construction of Biorthogonal vibration signal-data based wavelet transform in BPPVS-WNN system localizes the time and frequency domain. The Biorthogonal wavelet approximates the broken bearing using double scaling and factor, identifies the transient disturbance due to fault on induction motor through approximate coefficients and detailed coefficient. Posterior Probabilistic Neural Network detects the final level of faults using the detailed coefficient till fifth derivative and the results obtained through it at a faster rate at constant frequency signal on the industrial drive. Experiment through the Simulink tool detects the healthy and unhealthy motor on measuring parametric factors such as fault detection rate based on time, current flow rate, and execution time.

Keywords: Biorthogonal Wavelet Transform, Posterior Probabilistic Neural Network, Induction Motor.

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Authors: Adnene Arbi, Chaouki Aouiti, Abderrahmane Touati

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider the global exponential stability of the equilibrium point of Hopfield neural networks with delays and impulsive perturbation. Some new exponential stability criteria of the system are derived by using the Lyapunov functional method and the linear matrix inequality approach for estimating the upper bound of the derivative of Lyapunov functional. Finally, we illustrate two numerical examples showing the effectiveness of our theoretical results.

Keywords: Hopfield Neural Networks, Exponential stability.

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Authors: Ling Liu, Yuan Ye

Abstract:

In this paper, a discrete-time SIR epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate, time delays and impulses is investigated. Sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of periodic solutions are obtained by using contraction theorem and inequality techniques. An example is employed to illustrate our results.

Keywords: Discrete-time SIR epidemic model, time delay, nonlinear incidence rate, impulse.

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Authors: S.M. Lee, J.H. Koo, J.H. Park, S.C. Won

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose synchronization of an array of nonlinear systems with time delays. The array of systems is decomposed into isolated systems to establish appropriate Lyapunov¬Krasovskii functional. Using the Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, a sufficient condition for the synchronization is derived in terms of LMIs(Linear Matrix Inequalities). Delayed feedback control gains are obtained by solving the sufficient condition. Numerical examples are given to show the validity the proposed method.

Keywords: Synchronization, Delay, Lyapunov method, LMI.

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Authors: Toshio Akimitsu, Yoichi Okabe, Akira Hirose

Abstract:

Many experimental results suggest that more precise spike timing is significant in neural information processing. We construct a self-organization model using the spatiotemporal patterns, where Spike-Timing Dependent Plasticity (STDP) tunes the conduction delays between neurons. We show that the fluctuation of conduction delays causes globally continuous and locally distributed firing patterns through the self-organization.

Keywords: Self-organization, synfire-chain, Spike-Timing Dependent Plasticity, distributed information representation

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Authors: Kristjan Kuhi, Kati K. Kaare, Ott Koppel

Abstract:

Modern management in most fields is performance based; both planning and implementation of maintenance and operational activities are driven by appropriately defined performance indicators. Continuous real-time data collection for management is becoming feasible due to technological advancements. Outdated and insufficient input data may result in incorrect decisions. When using deterministic models the uncertainty of the object state is not visible thus applying the deterministic models are more likely to give false diagnosis. Constructing structured probabilistic models of the performance indicators taking into consideration the surrounding indicator environment enables to estimate the trustworthiness of the indicator values. It also assists to fill gaps in data to improve the quality of the performance analysis and management decisions. In this paper authors discuss the application of probabilistic graphical models in the road performance measurement and propose a high-level conceptual model that enables analyzing and predicting more precisely future pavement deterioration based on road utilization.

Keywords: Probabilistic graphical models, performance indicators, road performance management, data collection

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Authors: Mussa I. Mgwatu, Reuben R. M. Kainkwa

Abstract:

Wind is among the potential energy resources which can be harnessed to generate wind energy for conversion into electrical power. Due to the variability of wind speed with time and height, it becomes difficult to predict the generated wind energy more optimally. In this paper, an attempt is made to establish a probabilistic model fitting the wind speed data recorded at Makambako site in Tanzania. Wind speeds and direction were respectively measured using anemometer (type AN1) and wind Vane (type WD1) both supplied by Delta-T-Devices at a measurement height of 2 m. Wind speeds were then extrapolated for the height of 10 m using power law equation with an exponent of 0.47. Data were analysed using MINITAB statistical software to show the variability of wind speeds with time and height, and to determine the underlying probability model of the extrapolated wind speed data. The results show that wind speeds at Makambako site vary cyclically over time; and they conform to the Weibull probability distribution. From these results, Weibull probability density function can be used to predict the wind energy.

Keywords: Probabilistic models, wind speed, wind energy

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Authors: Changjin Xu, Peiluan Li

Abstract:

In this paper, a FitzHugh-Nagumo model with time delays is investigated. The linear stability of the equilibrium and the existence of Hopf bifurcation with delay τ is investigated. By applying Nyquist criterion, the length of delay is estimated for which stability continues to hold. Numerical simulations for justifying the theoretical results are illustrated. Finally, main conclusions are given.

Keywords: FitzHugh-Nagumo model, Time delay, Stability, Hopf bifurcation.

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Authors: Wenbin Zhang, Hantian Wu, Jian Tang

Abstract:

An artificial neural network is a mathematical model inspired by biological neural networks. There are several kinds of neural networks and they are widely used in many areas, such as: prediction, detection, and classification. Meanwhile, in day to day life, people always have to make many difficult decisions. For example, the coach of a soccer club has to decide which offensive player to be selected to play in a certain game. This work describes a novel Neural Network using a combination of the General Regression Neural Network and the Probabilistic Neural Networks to help a soccer coach make an informed decision.

Keywords: General Regression Neural Network, Probabilistic Neural Networks, Neural function.

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Authors: Toshio Akimitsu, Yoichi Okabe, Akira Hirose

Abstract:

Many experimental results suggest that more precise spike timing is significant in neural information processing. We construct a self-organization model using the spatiotemporal pat-terns, where Spike-Timing Dependent Plasticity (STDP) tunes the conduction delays between neurons. We show that, for highly syn-chronized inputs, the fluctuation of conduction delays causes globally continuous and locally distributed firing patterns through the self-organization.

Keywords: Self-organization, synfire-chain, Spike-Timing DependentPlasticity, distributed information representation.

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Authors: Sergei Yendiyarov, Sergei Petrushenko

Abstract:

In this article we present a change point detection algorithm based on the continuous wavelet transform. At the beginning of the article we describe a necessary transformation of a signal which has to be made for the purpose of change detection. Then case study related to iron ore sinter production which can be solved using our proposed technique is discussed. After that we describe a probabilistic algorithm which can be used to find changes using our transformed signal. It is shown that our algorithm works well with the presence of some noise and abnormal random bursts.

Keywords: Change detection, sinter production, wavelet transform.

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Authors: Zeynep Orman, Sabri Arik

Abstract:

This paper presents a new sufficient condition for the existence, uniqueness and global asymptotic stability of the equilibrium point for Cohen-Grossberg neural networks with multiple time delays. The results establish a relationship between the network parameters of the neural system independently of the delay parameters. The results are also compared with the previously reported results in the literature.

Keywords: Equilibrium and stability analysis, Cohen-Grossberg Neural Networks, Lyapunov Functionals.

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Authors: Zixin Liu, Shu Lü, Shouming Zhong, Mao Ye

Abstract:

In this paper, some new nonlinear generalized Gronwall-Bellman-Type integral inequalities with mixed time delays are established. These inequalities can be used as handy tools to research stability problems of delayed differential and integral dynamic systems. As applications, based on these new established inequalities, some p-stable results of a integro-differential equation are also given. Two numerical examples are presented to illustrate the validity of the main results.

Keywords: Gronwall-Bellman-Type integral inequalities, integrodifferential equation, p-exponentially stable, mixed delays.

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Authors: N. Promsuwanna, P. Uthansakul, M. Uthansakul

Abstract:

The Carrier Frequency Offset (CFO) due to timevarying fading channel is the main cause of the loss of orthogonality among OFDM subcarriers which is linked to inter-carrier interference (ICI). Hence, it is necessary to precisely estimate and compensate the CFO. Especially for mobile broadband communications, CFO and channel gain also have to be estimated and tracked to maintain the system performance. Thus, synchronization pilots are embedded in every OFDM symbol to track the variations. In this paper, we present the pilot scheme for both channel and CFO estimation where channel estimation process can be carried out with only one OFDM symbol. Additional, the proposed pilot scheme also provides better performance in CFO estimation comparing with the conventional orthogonal pilot scheme due to the increasing of signal-tointerference ratio.

Keywords: MIMO, OFDM, carrier frequency offset, channel, estimation.

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Authors: M. Glomski, M. Lopes

Abstract:

Seemingly simple probabilities in the m-player game bingo have never been calculated. These probabilities include expected game length and the expected number of winners on a given turn. The difficulty in probabilistic analysis lies in the subtle interdependence among the m-many bingo game cards in play. In this paper, the game i got it!, a bingo variant, is considered. This variation provides enough weakening of the inter-player dependence to allow probabilistic analysis not possible for traditional bingo. The probability of winning in exactly k turns is calculated for a one-player game. Given a game of m-many players, the expected game length and tie probability are calculated. With these calculations, the game-s interesting payout scheme is considered.

Keywords: Conditional probability, games of chance, npersongames, probability theory.

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Authors: Ali Y Al-Attraqchi, P. Rajeev, M. Javad Hashemi, Riadh Al-Mahaidi

Abstract:

This paper presents a probabilistic incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) of a full reinforced concrete building subjected to column loss scenario for the assessment of progressive collapse. The IDA is chosen to explicitly account for uncertainties in loads and system capacity. Fragility curves are developed to predict the probability of progressive collapse given the loss of one or more columns. At a broader scale, it will also provide critical information needed to support the development of a new generation of design codes that attempt to explicitly quantify structural robustness.

Keywords: Incremental dynamic analysis, progressive collapse, structural engineering, pushdown analysis.

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Authors: Marcel Schneider, Nils Nießen

Abstract:

Microscopic simulation tool kits allow for consideration of the two processes of railway operations and the previous timetable production. Block occupation conflicts on both process levels are often solved by using defined train priorities. These conflict resolutions (dispatching decisions) generate reactionary delays to the involved trains. The sum of reactionary delays is commonly used to evaluate the quality of railway operations, which describes the timetable robustness. It is either compared to an acceptable train performance or the delays are appraised economically by linear monetary functions. It is impossible to adequately evaluate dispatching decisions without a well-founded objective function. This paper presents a new approach for the evaluation of dispatching decisions. The approach uses mode choice models and considers the behaviour of the end-customers. These models evaluate the reactionary delays in more detail and consider other competing modes of transport. The new approach pursues the coupling of a microscopic model of railway operations with the macroscopic choice mode model. At first, it will be implemented for railway operations process but it can also be used for timetable production. The evaluation considers the possibility for the customer to interchange to other transport modes. The new approach starts to look at rail and road, but it can also be extended to air travel. The result of mode choice models is the modal split. The reactions by the end-customers have an impact on the revenue of the train operating companies. Different purposes of travel have different payment reserves and tolerances towards late running. Aside from changes to revenues, longer journey times can also generate additional costs. The costs are either time- or track-specific and arise from required changes to rolling stock or train crew cycles. Only the variable values are summarised in the contribution margin, which is the base for the monetary evaluation of delays. The contribution margin is calculated for different possible solutions to the same conflict. The conflict resolution is optimised until the monetary loss becomes minimal. The iterative process therefore determines an optimum conflict resolution by monitoring the change to the contribution margin. Furthermore, a monetary value of each dispatching decision can also be derived.

Keywords: Choice of mode, monetary evaluation, railway operations, reactionary delays.

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Authors: W.S. Lim, M.V.C. Rao

Abstract:

In this paper, the processing of sonar signals has been carried out using Minimal Resource Allocation Network (MRAN) and a Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) in differentiation of commonly encountered features in indoor environments. The stability-plasticity behaviors of both networks have been investigated. The experimental result shows that MRAN possesses lower network complexity but experiences higher plasticity than PNN. An enhanced version called parallel MRAN (pMRAN) is proposed to solve this problem and is proven to be stable in prediction and also outperformed the original MRAN.

Keywords: Ultrasonic sensing, target classification, minimalresource allocation network (MRAN), probabilistic neural network(PNN), stability-plasticity dilemma.

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Authors: Lenka Ševelová, Aleš Florian

Abstract:

Appropriate and progressive tool for analyzing behavior of low volume roads are probabilistic models used in reliability analyses. The necessary part of the probabilistic model is the deterministic model of structural behavior. The FE model of low volume roads is created in the ANSYS software. It is able to determine the state of stress and deformation in any point of the structure and thus generate data required for the reliability analysis. The paper compares two material constitutive models used for modeling of unbound non-homogenous materials used in low volume roads. The first model is linear elastic model according to Hook theory (H model), the second one is nonlinear elastic-plastic Drucker-Prager model (D-P model).

Keywords: FEA, FEM, geotechnical materials, low volume roads, material constitutive models, pavement.

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Authors: Sara Barati, Karim Ivaz

Abstract:

In this paper, using a model transformation approach a system of linear delay differential equations (DDEs) with multiple delays is converted to a non-delayed initial value problem. The variational iteration method (VIM) is then applied to obtain the approximate analytical solutions. Numerical results are given for several examples involving scalar and second order systems. Comparisons with the classical fourth-order Runge-Kutta method (RK4) verify that this method is very effective and convenient.

Keywords: Variational iteration method, delay differential equations, multiple delays, Runge-Kutta method.

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Authors: Liyuan Wang, Shouming Zhong

Abstract:

In this paper, the design problem of state estimator for neural networks with the mixed time-varying delays are investigated by constructing appropriate Lyapunov-Krasovskii functionals and using some effective mathematical techniques. In order to derive several conditions to guarantee the estimation error systems to be globally exponential stable, we transform the considered systems into the neural-type time-delay systems. Then with a set of linear inequalities(LMIs), we can obtain the stable criteria. Finally, three numerical examples are given to show the effectiveness and less conservatism of the proposed criterion.

Keywords: State estimator, Neural networks, Globally exponential stability.

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Authors: Zixin Liu, Fangwei Chen

Abstract:

In this Letter, a class of impulsive switched cellular neural networks with time-varying delays is investigated. At the same time, parametric uncertainties assumed to be norm bounded are considered. By dividing the network state variables into subgroups according to the characters of the neural networks, some sufficient conditions guaranteeing exponential stability for all admissible parametric uncertainties are derived via constructing appropriate Lyapunov functional. One numerical example is provided to illustrate the validity of the main results obtained in this paper.

Keywords: Switched systems, exponential stability, cellular neural networks.

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Authors: Mohammad Saleh Vahdatpour, Yanqing Zhang

Abstract:

Understanding the neural mechanisms underlying motion detection in the human visual system has long been a fascinating challenge in neuroscience and artificial intelligence. This paper presents a spiking neural network model inspired by the processing of motion information in the primate visual system, particularly focusing on the Middle Temporal (MT) area. In our study, we propose a multi-layer spiking neural network model to perform motion detection tasks, leveraging the idea that synaptic delays in neuronal communication are pivotal in motion perception. Synaptic delay, determined by factors like axon length and myelin insulation, affects the temporal order of input spikes, thereby encoding motion direction and speed. Overall, our spiking neural network model demonstrates the feasibility of capturing motion detection principles observed in the primate visual system. The combination of synaptic delays, learning mechanisms, and shared weights and delays in SMD provides a promising framework for motion perception in artificial systems, with potential applications in computer vision and robotics.

Keywords: Neural networks, motion detection, signature detection, convolutional neural network.

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