Search results for: forecast model.

Authors: Kenneth M. Oba

Abstract:

This study investigated factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria, and developed a mathematical model that can predict future cement prices. Cement is key in the Nigerian construction industry. The changes in price caused by certain factors could affect economic and infrastructural development; hence there is need for proper proactive planning. Secondary data were collected from published information on cement between 2014 and 2019. In addition, questionnaires were sent to some domestic cement retailers in Port Harcourt in Nigeria, to obtain the actual prices of cement between the same periods. The study revealed that the most critical factors affecting the price of cement in Nigeria are inflation rate, population growth rate, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate. With the use of data from United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and Central Bank of Nigeria databases, amongst others, a Multiple Linear Regression model was formulated. The model was used to predict the price of cement for 2020-2025. The model was then tested with 95% confidence level, using a two-tailed t-test and an F-test, resulting in an R² of 0.8428 and R² (adj.) of 0.6069. The results of the tests and the correlation factors confirm the model to be fit and adequate. This study will equip researchers and stakeholders in the construction industry with information for planning, monitoring, and management of present and future construction projects that involve the use of cement.

Keywords: Cement price, multiple linear regression model, Nigerian Construction Industry, price prediction.

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Authors: Tae Kyung Kim, Hee Suk Seo

Abstract:

Adapting various sensor devices to communicate within sensor networks empowers us by providing range of possibilities. The sensors in sensor networks need to know their measurable belief of trust for efficient and safe communication. In this paper, we suggested a trust model using fuzzy logic in sensor network. Trust is an aggregation of consensus given a set of past interaction among sensors. We applied our suggested model to sensor networks in order to show how trust mechanisms are involved in communicating algorithm to choose the proper path from source to destination.

Keywords: Fuzzy, Sensor Networks, Trust.

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Authors: Preeda Sansakorn, Min An

Abstract:

In order to be capable of dealing with uncertainties, subjectivities, including vagueness arising in building construction projects, the application of fuzzy reasoning technique based on fuzzy set theory is proposed. This study contributes significantly to the development of a fuzzy reasoning safety risk assessment model for building construction projects that could be employed to assess the risk magnitude of each hazardous event identified during construction, and a third parameter of probability of consequence is incorporated in the model. By using the proposed safety risk analysis methodology, more reliable and less ambiguities, which provide the safety risk management project team for decision-making purposes.

Keywords: Safety risks assessment, building construction safety, fuzzy reasoning, construction risk assessment model, building construction projects.

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Authors: Georgia Pozoukidou

Abstract:

TELUM software is a land use model designed specifically to help metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) prepare their transportation improvement programs and fulfill their numerous planning responsibilities. In this context obtaining, preparing, and validating socioeconomic forecasts are becoming fundamental tasks for an MPO in order to ensure that consistent population and employment data are provided to travel demand models. Chittenden County Metropolitan Planning Organization of Vermont State was used as a case study to test the applicability of TELUM land use model. The technical insights and lessons learned from the land use model application have transferable value for all MPOs faced with land use forecasting development and transportation modeling.

Keywords: Calibration data requirements, land use models, land use planning, Metropolitan Planning Organizations.

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Authors: T. T. Ntshakala, S. D. Eyono Obono

Abstract:

Physical education (PE) is still neglected in schools despite its academic, social, psychological, and health benefits. Based on the assumption that Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) can contribute to the development of PE in schools, this study aims to design a model of the factors affecting the adoption of ICTs for PE in schools. The proposed model is based on a sound theoretical framework. It was designed following a literature review of technology adoption theories and of ICT adoption factors for physical education. The technology adoption model that fitted to the best all ICT adoption factors was then chosen as the basis for the proposed model. It was found that the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) is the most adequate theoretical framework for the modeling of ICT adoption factors for physical education.

Keywords: Adoption factors, basic education, physical education, technology adoption theories.

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Authors: A. Suleng, T. Jelstad Olsen, J. Šindler, P. Bárta

Abstract:

A dead leg is a typical subsea production system component. CFD is required to model heat transfer within the dead leg. Unfortunately its solution is time demanding and thus not suitable for fast prediction or repeated simulations. Therefore there is a need to create a thermal FEA model, mimicking the heat flows and temperatures seen in CFD cool down simulations. This paper describes the conventional way of tuning and a new automated way using parametric model order reduction (PMOR) together with an optimization algorithm. The tuned FE analyses replicate the steady state CFD parameters within a maximum error in heat flow of 6 % and 3 % using manual and PMOR method respectively. During cool down, the relative error of the tuned FEA models with respect to temperature is below 5% comparing to the CFD. In addition, the PMOR method obtained the correct FEA setup five times faster than the manually tuned FEA.

Keywords: CFD, convective heat, FEA, model tuning, subseaproduction

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Authors: Liu Zhiyuan, Sun Zongdi, Liu Zhiyuan, Sun Zongdi

Abstract:

Qingdao is a seaside city. Taking into account the characteristics of Qingdao, this article established a multiple linear regression model to analyze the impact of macroeconomic factors on housing prices. We used stepwise regression method to make multiple linear regression analysis, and made statistical analysis of F test values and T test values. According to the analysis results, the model is continuously optimized. Finally, this article obtained the multiple linear regression equation and the influencing factors, and the reliability of the model was verified by F test and T test.

Keywords: Housing prices, multiple linear regression model, macroeconomic factors, Qingdao City.

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Authors: Yanling Zhu

Abstract:

In this paper, a predator-prey model with Holling III type functional response is studied. It is interesting that the system is always uniformly persistent, which yields the existence of at least one positive periodic solutions for the corresponding periodic system. The result improves the corresponding ones in [11]. Moreover, an example is illustrated to verify the results by simulation.

Keywords: Predator-prey model, Uniformly persistence, Comparisontheorem, Holling III type functional response.

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Authors: Lars Silver, Björn Berggren, Andreas Fili

Abstract:

The financial crisis has decreased the opportunities of small businesses to acquire financing through conventional financial actors, such as commercial banks. This credit constraint is partly the reason for the emergence of new alternatives of financing, in addition to the spreading opportunities for communication and secure financial transfer through Internet. One of the most interesting venues for finance is termed “crowdfunding". As the term suggests crowdfunding is an appeal to prospective customers and investors to form a crowd that will finance projects that otherwise would find it hard to generate support through the most common financial actors. Crowdfunding is in this paper divided into different models; the threshold model, the microfinance model, the micro loan model and the equity model. All these models add to the financial possibilities of emerging entrepreneurs.

Keywords: Entrepreneurship, crowdfunding, equity finance, bank finance.

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Authors: Sourabh Agrawal, Ashok K. Jain

Abstract:

Stick models are widely used in studying the behaviour of straight as well as skew bridges and viaducts subjected to earthquakes while carrying out preliminary studies. The application of such models to highly curved bridges continues to pose challenging problems. A viaduct proposed in the foothills of the Himalayas in Northern India is chosen for the study. It is having 8 simply supported spans @ 30 m c/c. It is doubly curved in horizontal plane with 20 m radius. It is inclined in vertical plane as well. The superstructure consists of a box section. Three models have been used: a conventional stick model, an improved stick model and a 3D finite element model. The improved stick model is employed by making use of body constraints in order to study its capabilities. The first 8 frequencies are about 9.71% away in the latter two models. Later the difference increases to 80% in 50th mode. The viaduct was subjected to all three components of the El Centro earthquake of May 1940. The numerical integration was carried out using the Hilber- Hughes-Taylor method as implemented in SAP2000. Axial forces and moments in the bridge piers as well as lateral displacements at the bearing levels are compared for the three models. The maximum difference in the axial forces and bending moments and displacements vary by 25% between the improved and finite element model. Whereas, the maximum difference in the axial forces, moments, and displacements in various sections vary by 35% between the improved stick model and equivalent straight stick model. The difference for torsional moment was as high as 75%. It is concluded that the stick model with body constraints to model the bearings and expansion joints is not desirable in very sharp S curved viaducts even for preliminary analysis. This model can be used only to determine first 10 frequency and mode shapes but not for member forces. A 3D finite element analysis must be carried out for meaningful results.

Keywords: Bearing, body constraint, box girder, curved viaduct, expansion joint, finite element, link element, seismic, stick model, time history analysis.

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Authors: Taneli Eisto, Venlakaisa Hölttä, Katrine Mahlamäki, Janne Kollanus, Marko Nieminen

Abstract:

Early supplier involvement (ESI) benefits new product development projects several ways. Nevertheless, many castuser companies do not know the advantages of ESI and therefore do not utilize it. This paper presents reasons why to utilize ESI in casting industry and how that can be done. Further, this paper presents advantages and challenges related to ESI in casting industry, and introduces a Casting-Network Collaboration Model. The model presents practices for companies to build advantageous collaborative relationships. More detailed, the model describes three levels for company-network relationships in casting industry with different degrees of collaboration, and requirements for operating in each level. In our research, ESI was found to influence, for example, on project time, component cost, and quality. In addition, challenges related to ESI, such as, a lack of mutual trust and unawareness about the advantages were found. Our research approach was a case study including four cases.

Keywords: Casting Industry, Collaboration Model, EarlySupplier Involvement, New Product Development.

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Authors: Evgeniy Burlutskiy

Abstract:

The paper presents a numerical investigation on the rapid gas decompression in pure nitrogen which is made by using the one-dimensional (1D) and three-dimensional (3D) mathematical models of transient compressible non-isothermal fluid flow in pipes. A 1D transient mathematical model of compressible thermal multicomponent fluid mixture flow in pipes is presented. The set of the mass, momentum and enthalpy conservation equations for gas phase is solved in the model. Thermo-physical properties of multicomponent gas mixture are calculated by solving the Equation of State (EOS) model. The Soave-Redlich-Kwong (SRK-EOS) model is chosen. This model is successfully validated on the experimental data [1] and shows a good agreement with measurements. A 3D transient mathematical model of compressible thermal single-component gas flow in pipes, which is built by using the CFD Fluent code (ANSYS), is presented in the paper. The set of unsteady Reynolds-averaged conservation equations for gas phase is solved. Thermo-physical properties of single-component gas are calculated by solving the Real Gas Equation of State (EOS) model. The simplest case of gas decompression in pure nitrogen is simulated using both 1D and 3D models. The ability of both models to simulate the process of rapid decompression with a high order of agreement with each other is tested. Both, 1D and 3D numerical results show a good agreement between each other. The numerical investigation shows that 3D CFD model is very helpful in order to validate 1D simulation results if the experimental data is absent or limited.

Keywords: Mathematical model, Rapid Gas Decompression

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Authors: Jianhua Wang, Yan Yu

Abstract:

This paper presents an intrusion detection system of hybrid neural network model based on RBF and Elman. It is used for anomaly detection and misuse detection. This model has the memory function .It can detect discrete and related aggressive behavior effectively. RBF network is a real-time pattern classifier, and Elman network achieves the memory ability for former event. Based on the hybrid model intrusion detection system uses DARPA data set to do test evaluation. It uses ROC curve to display the test result intuitively. After the experiment it proves this hybrid model intrusion detection system can effectively improve the detection rate, and reduce the rate of false alarm and fail.

Keywords: RBF, Elman, anomaly detection, misuse detection, hybrid neural network.

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Authors: Maha Hammami, Olfa Benouda Sioud

Abstract:

This study investigates the reliability of management earnings forecasts with reference to these two ingredients: verifiability and neutrality. Specifically, we examine the biasedness (or accuracy) of management earnings forecasts and company specific characteristics that can be associated with accuracy. Based on sample of 102 IPO prospectuses published for admission on NYSE Euronext Paris from 2002 to 2010, we found that these forecasts are on average optimistic and two of the five test variables, earnings variability and financial leverage are significant in explaining ex post bias. Acknowledging the possibility that the bias is the result of the managers’ forecasting behavior, we then examine whether managers decide to under-predict, over-predict or forecast accurately for self-serving purposes. Explicitly, we examine the role of financial distress, operating performance, ownership by insiders and the economy state in influencing managers’ forecasting preferences. We find that managers of distressed firms seem to over-predict future earnings. We also find that when managers are given more stock options, they tend to under-predict future earnings. Finally, we conclude that the management earnings forecasts are affected by an intentional bias due to managers’ forecasting preferences.

Keywords: Intentional bias, Management earnings forecasts, neutrality, verifiability.

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Authors: Ardeshir Karami Mohammadi

Abstract:

A Variable Structure Model Reference Adaptive Controller using state variables is proposed for a class of multi input-multi output systems. Adaptation law is of variable structure type and switching functions is designed based on stability requirements. Global exponential stability is proved based on Lyapunov criterion. Transient behavior is analyzed using sliding mode control and shows perfect model following at a finite time.

Keywords: Adaptive control, Model reference, Variablestructure, MIMO system.

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Authors: Hao Hsi Tseng

Abstract:

Taiwan’s infrastructure is gradually deteriorating, while resources for maintenance and replacement are increasingly limited, raising the urgent need for methods for maintaining existing infrastructure within constrained budgets. Infrastructure value evaluation is used to enhance the efficiency of infrastructure maintenance work, allowing administrators to quickly assess the maintenance needs and performance by observing variation in infrastructure value. This research establishes a value evaluation model for Taiwan’s highway box girder bridges. The operating mechanism and process of the model are illustrated in a practical case.

Keywords: Box girder bridge, deterioration, infrastructure, maintenance, value evaluation.

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Authors: Majid Mokhtarnia, Alireza Amini

Abstract:

Mobile operators deal with increasing in the data traffic as a critical issue. As a result, a vital responsibility of the operators is to deal with such a trend in order to create added values. This paper addresses a bundling method in a Canvas business model in a WiFi Data Offloading (WDO) strategy by which some elements of the model may be affected. In the proposed method, it is supposed to sell a number of data packages for subscribers in which there are some packages with a free given volume of data-offloaded WiFi complimentary. The paper on hands analyses this method in the views of attractiveness and profitability. The results demonstrate that the quality of implementation of the WDO strongly affects the final result and helps the decision maker to make the best one.

Keywords: Bundling, canvas business model, telecommunication, WiFi Data Offloading.

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Authors: Lili Sun, Hua Wang

Abstract:

As privacy becomes a major concern for consumers and enterprises, many research have been focused on the privacy protecting technology in recent years. In this paper, we present a comprehensive approach for usage access control based on the notion purpose. In our model, purpose information associated with a given data element specifies the intended use of the subjects and objects in the usage access control model. A key feature of our model is that it allows when an access is required, the access purpose is checked against the intended purposes for the data item. We propose an approach to represent purpose information to support access control based on purpose information. Our proposed solution relies on usage access control (UAC) models as well as the components which based on the notions of the purpose information used in subjects and objects. Finally, comparisons with related works are analyzed.

Keywords: Purpose, privacy, access control, authorization

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Authors: Lan Yang, Kathryn Cormican, Ming Yu

Abstract:

ISO/IEC/IEEE 15288: 2015, Systems and Software Engineering - System Life Cycle Processes is an international standard that provides generic top-level process descriptions to support systems engineering (SE). However, the processes defined in the standard needs improvement to lift integrity and consistency. The goal of this research is to explore the way by building an ontology model for the SE standard to manage the knowledge of SE. The ontology model gives a whole picture of the SE knowledge domain by building connections between SE concepts. Moreover, it creates a hierarchical classification of the concepts to fulfil different requirements of displaying and analysing SE knowledge.

Keywords: Knowledge management, model-based systems engineering, ontology modelling, systems engineering ontology.

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Authors: Sang Keun Rhee, Hyojeong Jin, Jihye Lee, Misoo Kwon, Myon-Woong Park, Sungdo Ha

Abstract:

Extensive information is required within a R&D environment, and a considerable amount of time and efforts are being spent on finding the necessary information. An adaptive information providing system would be beneficial to the environment, and a conceptual model of the resources, people and context is mandatory for developing such applications. In this paper, an information model on various contexts and resources is proposed which provides the possibility of effective applications for use in adaptive information systems within a R&D project and meeting environment.

Keywords: Adaptive Hypermedia, Adaptive System, ContextAwareness, Information Model, Information System, Personalisation.

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Authors: K. Elleuch, A. Chaari

Abstract:

This paper deals with modeling and parameter identification of nonlinear systems described by Hammerstein model having Piecewise nonlinear characteristics such as Dead-zone nonlinearity characteristic. The simultaneous use of both an easy decomposition technique and the triangular basis functions leads to a particular form of Hammerstein model. The approximation by using Triangular basis functions for the description of the static nonlinear block conducts to a linear regressor model, so that least squares techniques can be used for the parameter estimation. Singular Values Decomposition (SVD) technique has been applied to separate the coupled parameters. The proposed approach has been efficiently tested on academic examples of simulation.

Keywords: Identification, Hammerstein model, Piecewisenonlinear characteristic, Dead-zone nonlinearity, Triangular basisfunctions, Singular Values Decomposition

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Authors: Hiren Mewada, Suprava Patnaik

Abstract:

Object identification and segmentation application requires extraction of object in foreground from the background. In this paper the Bhattacharya distance based probabilistic approach is utilized with an active contour model (ACM) to segment an object from the background. In the proposed approach, the Bhattacharya histogram is calculated on non-linear structure tensor space. Based on the histogram, new formulation of active contour model is proposed to segment images. The results are tested on both color and gray images from the Berkeley image database. The experimental results show that the proposed model is applicable to both color and gray images as well as both texture images and natural images. Again in comparing to the Bhattacharya based ACM in ICA space, the proposed model is able to segment multiple object too.

Keywords: Active Contour, Bhattacharya Histogram, Structure tensor, Image segmentation.

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Authors: Lihui Ma, Kunlun Xin, Suiqing Liu

Abstract:

Modern managements of water distribution system (WDS) need water quality models that are able to accurately predict the dynamics of water quality variations within the distribution system environment. Before water quality models can be applied to solve system problems, they should be calibrated. Although former researchers use GA solver to calibrate relative parameters, it is difficult to apply on the large-scale or medium-scale real system for long computational time. In this paper a new method is designed which combines both macro and detailed model to optimize the water quality parameters. This new combinational algorithm uses radial basis function (RBF) metamodeling as a surrogate to be optimized for the purpose of decreasing the times of time-consuming water quality simulation and can realize rapidly the calibration of pipe wall reaction coefficients of chlorine model of large-scaled WDS. After two cases study this method is testified to be more efficient and promising, and deserve to generalize in the future.

Keywords: Metamodeling, model calibration, radial basisfunction, water distribution system, water quality model.

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Authors: W. K. Yap, V. Karri

Abstract:

This paper presents a hybrid electric scooter model developed and simulated using Matlab/Simulink. This hybrid scooter modeled has a parallel hybrid structure. The main propulsion units consist of a two stroke internal combustion engine and a hub motor attached to the front wheel of the scooter. The methodology used to optimize the energy and fuel consumption of the hybrid electric scooter is the multi-mode approach. Various case studies were presented to check the model and were compared to the literatures. Results shown that the model developed was feasible and valuable.

Keywords: Hybrid electric scooters, modeling and simulation, hybrid scooter energy management.

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Authors: Changjin Xu, Peiluan Li

Abstract:

In this paper, a FitzHugh-Nagumo model with time delays is investigated. The linear stability of the equilibrium and the existence of Hopf bifurcation with delay τ is investigated. By applying Nyquist criterion, the length of delay is estimated for which stability continues to hold. Numerical simulations for justifying the theoretical results are illustrated. Finally, main conclusions are given.

Keywords: FitzHugh-Nagumo model, Time delay, Stability, Hopf bifurcation.

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Authors: Biao Ma, Jikai Liu, Man Chen, Jianpeng Wu, Liyong Wang, Changsong Zheng

Abstract:

Proposing an appropriate control strategy is an effective and practical way to address the overheat problems of the wet multi-plate clutch in Direct Shift Gearbox under the long-time creeping condition. To do so, the temperature variation of the wet multi-plate clutch is investigated firstly by establishing a thermal resistance model for the gearbox cooling system. To calculate the generated heat flux and predict the clutch temperature precisely, the friction torque model is optimized by introducing an improved friction coefficient, which is related to the pressure, the relative speed and the temperature. After that, the heat transfer model and the reasonable friction torque model are employed by the vehicle powertrain model to construct a comprehensive co-simulation model for the Direct Shift Gearbox (DSG) vehicle. A creeping control strategy is then proposed and, to evaluate the vehicle performance, the safety temperature (250 ℃) is particularly adopted as an important metric. During the creeping process, the temperature of two clutches is always under the safety value (250 ℃), which demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy in avoiding the thermal failures of clutches.

Keywords: Creeping control strategy, direct shift gearbox, temperature variation, wet clutch.

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Authors: N. A. Samat, S. H. Mohd Imam Ma’arof

Abstract:

Dengue disease is an infectious vector-borne viral disease that is commonly found in tropical and sub-tropical regions, especially in urban and semi-urban areas, around the world and including Malaysia. There is no currently available vaccine or chemotherapy for the prevention or treatment of dengue disease. Therefore prevention and treatment of the disease depend on vector surveillance and control measures. Disease risk mapping has been recognized as an important tool in the prevention and control strategies for diseases. The choice of statistical model used for relative risk estimation is important as a good model will subsequently produce a good disease risk map. Therefore, the aim of this study is to estimate the relative risk for dengue disease based initially on the most common statistic used in disease mapping called Standardized Morbidity Ratio (SMR) and one of the earliest applications of Bayesian methodology called Poisson-gamma model. This paper begins by providing a review of the SMR method, which we then apply to dengue data of Perak, Malaysia. We then fit an extension of the SMR method, which is the Poisson-gamma model. Both results are displayed and compared using graph, tables and maps. Results of the analysis shows that the latter method gives a better relative risk estimates compared with using the SMR. The Poisson-gamma model has been demonstrated can overcome the problem of SMR when there is no observed dengue cases in certain regions. However, covariate adjustment in this model is difficult and there is no possibility for allowing spatial correlation between risks in adjacent areas. The drawbacks of this model have motivated many researchers to propose other alternative methods for estimating the risk.

Keywords: Dengue disease, Disease mapping, Standardized Morbidity Ratio, Poisson-gamma model, Relative risk.

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Authors: G. Balakayeva, A. Aktymbayeva

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider components of discrete event imitating model, implementing a simulation model by using JAVA and performing an input analysis of the data and an output analysis of the simulation results. Was lead development of imitating model of mass service system with n (n≥1) devices of service. On the basis of the developed process of a multithreading simulated the distributed processes with presence of synchronization. Was developed the algorithm of event-oriented simulation, was received results of system functioning with n devices of service.

Keywords: Imitating modeling, Mass service system, Multi agentsystem.

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Authors: Torsti Rantapuska, Sariseelia Sore

Abstract:

Acquiring commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) software applications is becoming routine in organizations. However, eliciting user requirements, finding the candidate COTS products and making the decision is a complex task, especially for SMEs who do not have the time and knowledge needed to do the task properly. The existing models intended to help the decision makers are originally designed for professional use. SMEs are obligated to rely on the software vendor’s ability to solve the problem with the systems provided.  In this paper, we develop a model for SMEs for the acquisition of Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) software products. A leading idea of the model is that the ICT investment is basically a change initiative and therefore it should also be taken as a process of organizational learning. The model is designed bearing three objectives in mind: 1) business orientation, 2) agility, and 3) Learning and knowledge management orientation. The model can be applied to ICT investments in SMEs which have a professional team leader with basic business and IT knowledge. 

 

Keywords: COTS acquisition, ICT investment, organizational learning, ICT adoption.

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Authors: Qatawneh H., Yousef S., Shirvani H.

Abstract:

The purpose of this article is to propose a model designed to achieve Total Knowledge Transfer in the public health sector. The Total Knowledge Transfer Model integrated four essential organizational factors which have been under examined in totality in the literature. The research design was inductive in nature and used a case study for accomplishing the research objectives. The researcher investigated the factors that created a base to design a framework for total knowledge transfer in the public health sector. The results of this study are drawn from a fairly large sample in only two hospitals. A further research can be conducted to cover more responses from a wider health sector. The Total Knowledge Transfer Model is essential to improve the transfer and application of total common health knowledge.

Keywords: Health Care, Knowledge Management, Knowledge Transfer.

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