Search results for: forecast model.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7490

Search results for: forecast model.

1430 Optimal Prices under Revenue Sharing Contract in a Supply Chain with Direct Channel

Authors: Aussadavut Dumrongsiri

Abstract:

Westudy a dual-channel supply chain under decentralized setting in which manufacturer sells to retailer and to customers directly usingan online channel. A customer chooses the purchase-channel based on price and service quality. Also, to buy product from the retail store, the customer incurs a transportation cost influenced by the fluctuating gasoline cost. Both companies are under the revenue sharing contract. In this contract the retailer share a portion of the revenue to the manufacturer while the manufacturer will charge the lower wholesales price. The numerical result shows that the effects of gasoline costs, the revenue sharing ratio and the wholesale price play an important role in determining optimal prices. The result shows that when the gasoline price fluctuatesthe optimal on-line priceis relatively stable while the optimal retail price moves in the opposite direction of the gasoline prices.

Keywords: direct-channel, e-business, pricing model, dualchannel supply chain, gasoline cost, revenue sharing

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1429 Impregnation of Cupper into Kanuma Volcanic Ash Soil to Improve Mercury Sorption Capacity

Authors: Jatindra N. Bhakta, Yukihiro Munekage

Abstract:

The present study attempted to improve the Mercury (Hg) sorption capacity of kanuma volcanic ash soil (KVAS) by impregnating the cupper (Cu). Impregnation was executed by 1 and 5% Cu powder and sorption characterization of optimum Hg removing Cu impregnated KVAS was performed under different operational conditions, contact time, solution pH, sorbent dosage and Hg concentration using the batch operation studies. The 1% Cu impregnated KVAS pronounced optimum improvement (79%) in removing Hg from water compare to control. The present investigation determined the equilibrium state of maximum Hg adsorption at 6 h contact period. The adsorption revealed a pH dependent response and pH 3.5 showed maximum sorption capacity of Hg. Freundlich isotherm model is well fitted with the experimental data than that of Langmuir isotherm. It can be concluded that the Cu impregnation improves the Hg sorption capacity of KVAS and 1% Cu impregnated KVAS could be employed as cost-effective adsorbent media for treating Hg contaminated water.

Keywords: Cupper, impregnation, isotherm, kanuma volcanic ash soil, mercury, sorption

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1428 Multi-Disciplinary Optimisation Methodology for Aircraft Load Prediction

Authors: Sudhir Kumar Tiwari

Abstract:

The paper demonstrates a methodology that can be used at an early design stage of any conventional aircraft. This research activity assesses the feasibility derivation of methodology for aircraft loads estimation during the various phases of design for a transport category aircraft by utilizing potential of using commercial finite element analysis software, which may drive significant time saving. Early Design phase have limited data and quick changing configuration results in handling of large number of load cases. It is useful to idealize the aircraft as a connection of beams, which can be very accurately modelled using finite element analysis (beam elements). This research explores the correct approach towards idealizing an aircraft using beam elements. FEM Techniques like inertia relief were studied for implementation during course of work. The correct boundary condition technique envisaged for generation of shear force, bending moment and torque diagrams for the aircraft. The possible applications of this approach are the aircraft design process, which have been investigated.

Keywords: Multi-disciplinary optimization, aircraft load, finite element analysis, Stick Model.

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1427 Optimization of Machining Parametric Study on Electrical Discharge Machining

Authors: Rakesh Prajapati, Purvik Patel, Hardik Patel

Abstract:

Productivity and quality are two important aspects that have become great concerns in today’s competitive global market. Every production/manufacturing unit mainly focuses on these areas in relation to the process, as well as the product developed. The electrical discharge machining (EDM) process, even now it is an experience process, wherein the selected parameters are still often far from the maximum, and at the same time selecting optimization parameters is costly and time consuming. Material Removal Rate (MRR) during the process has been considered as a productivity estimate with the aim to maximize it, with an intention of minimizing surface roughness taken as most important output parameter. These two opposites in nature requirements have been simultaneously satisfied by selecting an optimal process environment (optimal parameter setting). Objective function is obtained by Regression Analysis and Analysis of Variance. Then objective function is optimized using Genetic Algorithm technique. The model is shown to be effective; MRR and Surface Roughness improved using optimized machining parameters.

Keywords: Material removal rate, TWR, OC, DOE, ANOVA, MINITAB.

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1426 Adaptive Helmholtz Resonator in a Hydraulic System

Authors: Lari Kela

Abstract:

An adaptive Helmholtz resonator was designed and adapted to hydraulics. The resonator was controlled by open- and closed-loop controls so that 20 dB attenuation of the peak-to-peak value of the pulsating pressure was maintained. The closed-loop control was noted to be better, albeit it was slower because of its low pressure and temperature variation, which caused variation in the effective bulk modulus of the hydraulic system. Low-pressure hydraulics contains air, which affects the stiffness of the hydraulics, and temperature variation changes the viscosity of the oil. Thus, an open-loop control loses its efficiency if a condition such as temperature or the amount of air changes after calibration. The instability of the low-pressure hydraulic system reduced the operational frequency range of the Helmholtz resonator when compared with the results of an analytical model. Different dampers for hydraulics are presented. Then analytical models of a hydraulic pipe and a hydraulic pipe with a Helmholtz resonator are presented. The analytical models are based on the wave equation of sound pressure. Finally, control methods and the results of experiments are presented.

Keywords: adaptive, damper, hydraulics, pressure, pulsating

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1425 DocPro: A Framework for Processing Semantic and Layout Information in Business Documents

Authors: Ming-Jen Huang, Chun-Fang Huang, Chiching Wei

Abstract:

With the recent advance of the deep neural network, we observe new applications of NLP (natural language processing) and CV (computer vision) powered by deep neural networks for processing business documents. However, creating a real-world document processing system needs to integrate several NLP and CV tasks, rather than treating them separately. There is a need to have a unified approach for processing documents containing textual and graphical elements with rich formats, diverse layout arrangement, and distinct semantics. In this paper, a framework that fulfills this unified approach is presented. The framework includes a representation model definition for holding the information generated by various tasks and specifications defining the coordination between these tasks. The framework is a blueprint for building a system that can process documents with rich formats, styles, and multiple types of elements. The flexible and lightweight design of the framework can help build a system for diverse business scenarios, such as contract monitoring and reviewing.

Keywords: Document processing, framework, formal definition, machine learning.

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1424 Performance Evaluation of Purely Mechanical Wireless In-Mould Sensor for Injection Moulding

Authors: Florian Müller, Christian Kukla, Thomas Lucyshyn, Clemens Holzer

Abstract:

In this paper, the influencing parameters of a novel purely mechanical wireless in-mould injection moulding sensor were investigated. The sensor is capable of detecting the melt front at predefined locations inside the mould. The sensor comprises a movable pin which acts as the sensor element generating structure-borne sound triggered by the passing melt front. Due to the sensor design, melt pressure is the driving force. For pressure level measurement during pin movement a pressure transducer located at the same position as the movable pin. By deriving a mathematical model for the mechanical movement, dominant process parameters could be investigated towards their impact on the melt front detection characteristic. It was found that the sensor is not affected by the investigated parameters enabling it for reliable melt front detection. In addition, it could be proved that the novel sensor is in comparable range to conventional melt front detection sensors.

Keywords: Injection Moulding, In-Mould Sensor, Structure-Borne Sound, Wireless Sensor

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1423 Determining Factors for ISO14001 EMS Implementation among SMEs in Malaysia: A Resource Based View

Authors: Goh Yen Nee

Abstract:

This research aimed to find out the determining factors for ISO 14001 EMS implementation among SMEs in Malaysia from the Resource based view. A cross-sectional approach using survey was conducted. A research model been proposed which comprises of ISO 14001 EMS implementation as the criterion variable while physical capital resources (i.e. environmental performance tracking and organizational infrastructures), human capital resources (i.e. top management commitment and support, training and education, employee empowerment and teamwork) and organizational capital resources (i.e. recognition and reward, organizational culture and organizational communication) as the explanatory variables. The research findings show that only environmental performance tracking, top management commitment and support and organizational culture are found to be positively and significantly associated with ISO 14001 EMS implementation. It is expected that this research will shed new knowledge and provide a base for future studies about the role played by firm-s internal resources.

Keywords: ISO 14001 Environmental Management System, Malaysia, Resource based view, SMEs

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1422 Structural Modelling of the LiCl Aqueous Solution: Using the Hybrid Reverse Monte Carlo (HRMC) Simulation

Authors: M. Habchi, S.M. Mesli, M. Kotbi

Abstract:

The Reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) simulation is applied in the study of an aqueous electrolyte LiCl6H2O. On the basis of the available experimental neutron scattering data, RMC computes pair radial distribution functions in order to explore the structural features of the system. The obtained results include some unrealistic features. To overcome this problem, we use the Hybrid Reverse Monte Carlo (HRMC), incorporating an energy constraint in addition to the commonly used constraints derived from experimental data. Our results show a good agreement between experimental and computed partial distribution functions (PDFs) as well as a significant improvement in pair partial distribution curves. This kind of study can be considered as a useful test for a defined interaction model for conventional simulation techniques.

Keywords: RMC simulation, HRMC simulation, energy constraint, screened potential, glassy state, liquid state, partial distribution function, pair partial distribution function.

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1421 Experimental Investigation of a Novel Reaction in Reduction of Sulfates by Natural Gas as a Reducing Agent

Authors: Ali Ghiaseddin , Akram Nemati

Abstract:

In a pilot plant scale of a fluidized bed reactor, a reduction reaction of sodium sulfate by natural gas has been investigated. Natural gas is applied in this study as a reductant. Feed density, feed mass flow rate, natural gas and air flow rate (independent parameters)and temperature of bed and CO concentration in inlet and outlet of reactor (dependent parameters) were monitored and recorded at steady state. The residence time was adjusted close to value of traditional reaction [1]. An artificial neural network (ANN) was established to study dependency of yield and carbon gradient on operating parameters. Resultant 97% accuracy of applied ANN is a good prove that natural gas can be used as a reducing agent. Predicted ANN model for relation between other sources carbon gradient (accuracy 74%) indicates there is not a meaningful relation between other sources carbon variation and reduction process which means carbon in granule does not have significant effect on the reaction yield.

Keywords: reduction by natural gas, fluidized bed, sulfate, sulfide, artificial neural network

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1420 A Study on the Modeling and Analysis of an Electro-Hydraulic Power Steering System

Authors: Ji-Hye Kim, Sung-Gaun Kim

Abstract:

Electro-hydraulic power steering (EHPS) system for the fuel rate reduction and steering feel improvement is comprised of ECU including the logic which controls the steering system and BL DC motor and produces the best suited cornering force, BLDC motor, high pressure pump integrated module and basic oil-hydraulic circuit of the commercial HPS system. Electro-hydraulic system can be studied in two ways such as experimental and computer simulation. To get accurate results in experimental study of EHPS system, the real boundary management is necessary which is difficult task. And the accuracy of the experimental results depends on the preparation of the experimental setup and accuracy of the data collection. The computer simulation gives accurate and reliable results if the simulation is carried out considering proper boundary conditions. So, in this paper, each component of EHPS was modeled, and the model-based analysis and control logic was designed by using AMESim

Keywords: Power steering system, Electro-Hydraulic power steering (EHPS) system, Modeling of EHPS system, Analysis modeling.

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1419 Performences of Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Control and Neuro-Fuzzy Control Based on DPC for Grid Connected DFIG with Fixed Switching Frequency

Authors: Fayssal Amrane, Azeddine Chaiba

Abstract:

In this paper, type-2 fuzzy logic control (T2FLC) and neuro-fuzzy control (NFC) for a doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) based on direct power control (DPC) with a fixed switching frequency is proposed for wind generation application. First, a mathematical model of the doubly-fed induction generator implemented in d-q reference frame is achieved. Then, a DPC algorithm approach for controlling active and reactive power of DFIG via fixed switching frequency is incorporated using PID. The performance of T2FLC and NFC, which is based on the DPC algorithm, are investigated and compared to those obtained from the PID controller. Finally, simulation results demonstrate that the NFC is more robust, superior dynamic performance for wind power generation system applications.

Keywords: Doubly fed induction generetor, direct power control, space vector modulation, type-2 fuzzy logic control, neuro-fuzzy control, maximum power point tracking.

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1418 Measuring Cognitive Load - A Solution to Ease Learning of Programming

Authors: Muhammed Yousoof, Mohd Sapiyan, Khaja Kamaluddin

Abstract:

Learning programming is difficult for many learners. Some researches have found that the main difficulty relates to cognitive load. Cognitive overload happens in programming due to the nature of the subject which is intrinisicly over-bearing on the working memory. It happens due to the complexity of the subject itself. The problem is made worse by the poor instructional design methodology used in the teaching and learning process. Various efforts have been proposed to reduce the cognitive load, e.g. visualization softwares, part-program method etc. Use of many computer based systems have also been tried to tackle the problem. However, little success has been made to alleviate the problem. More has to be done to overcome this hurdle. This research attempts at understanding how cognitive load can be managed so as to reduce the problem of overloading. We propose a mechanism to measure the cognitive load during pre instruction, post instruction and in instructional stages of learning. This mechanism is used to help the instruction. As the load changes the instruction is made to adapt itself to ensure cognitive viability. This mechanism could be incorporated as a sub domain in the student model of various computer based instructional systems to facilitate the learning of programming.

Keywords: Cognitive load, Working memory, Cognitive Loadmeasurement.

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1417 Prediction of Compressive Strength of SCC Containing Bottom Ash using Artificial Neural Networks

Authors: Yogesh Aggarwal, Paratibha Aggarwal

Abstract:

The paper presents a comparative performance of the models developed to predict 28 days compressive strengths using neural network techniques for data taken from literature (ANN-I) and data developed experimentally for SCC containing bottom ash as partial replacement of fine aggregates (ANN-II). The data used in the models are arranged in the format of six and eight input parameters that cover the contents of cement, sand, coarse aggregate, fly ash as partial replacement of cement, bottom ash as partial replacement of sand, water and water/powder ratio, superplasticizer dosage and an output parameter that is 28-days compressive strength and compressive strengths at 7 days, 28 days, 90 days and 365 days, respectively for ANN-I and ANN-II. The importance of different input parameters is also given for predicting the strengths at various ages using neural network. The model developed from literature data could be easily extended to the experimental data, with bottom ash as partial replacement of sand with some modifications.

Keywords: Self compacting concrete, bottom ash, strength, prediction, neural network, importance factor.

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1416 Biosorption of Cu (II) and Zn (II) from Real Wastewater onto Cajanus cajan Husk

Authors: Mallappa A. Devani, John U. Kennedy Oubagaranadin, Basudeb Munshi

Abstract:

In this preliminary work, locally available husk of Cajanus cajan (commonly known in India as Tur or Arhar), a bio-waste, has been used in its physically treated and chemically activated form for the removal of binary Cu (II) and Zn(II) ions from the real waste water obtained from an electroplating industry in Bangalore, Karnataka, India and from laboratory prepared binary solutions having almost similar composition of the metal ions, for comparison. The real wastewater after filtration and dilution for five times was used for biosorption studies at the normal pH of the solutions at room temperature. Langmuir's binary model was used to calculate the metal uptake capacities of the biosorbents. It was observed that Cu(II) is more competitive than Zn(II) in biosorption. In individual metal biosorption, Cu(II) uptake was found to be more than that of the Zn(II) and a similar trend was observed in the binary metal biosorption from real wastewater and laboratory prepared solutions. FTIR analysis was carried out to identify the functional groups in the industrial wastewater and EDAX for the elemental analysis of the biosorbents after experiments.

Keywords: Biosorption, Cajanus cajan, multi metal remediation, wastewater.

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1415 Simulation of Thermal Storage Phase Change Material in Buildings

Authors: Samira Haghshenaskashani, Hadi Pasdarshahri

Abstract:

One of the potential and effective ways of storing thermal energy in buildings is the integration of brick with phase change materials (PCMs). This paper presents a two-dimensional model for simulating and analyzing of PCM in order to minimize energy consumption in the buildings. The numerical approach has been used with the real weather data of a selected city of Iran (Tehran). Two kinds of brick integrated PCM are investigated and compared base on outdoor weather conditions and the amount of energy consumption. The results show a significant reduction in maximum entering heat flux to building about 32.8% depending on PCM quantity. The results are analyzed by various temperature contour plots. The contour plots illustrated the time dependent mechanism of entering heat flux for a brick integrated with PCM. Further analysis is developed to investigate the effect of PCM location on the inlet heat flux. The results demonstrated that to achieve maximum performance of PCM it is better to locate PCM near the outdoor.

Keywords: Building, Energy Storage, PCM, Phase Change Material

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1414 A Study on the Relation between Auditor Rotation and Audit Quality in Iranian Firms

Authors: Bita Mashayekhi, Marjan Fayyazi, Parisa Sefati

Abstract:

Audit quality is a popular topic in accounting and auditing research because recent decades’ financial crises reduce the reliability of financial reports to public investors and cause significant doubt about the audit profession. Therefore, doing research to identify effective factors in improving audit quality is necessary for bringing back public investors’ trust to financial statements as well as audit reports. In this study, we explore the relationship between audit rotation and audit quality. For this purpose, we employ the Duff (2009) model of audit quality to measure audit quality and use a questionnaire survey of 27 audit service quality attributes. Our results show that there is a negative relationship between auditor’s rotation and audit quality as we consider the auditor’s reputation, capability, assurance, experience, and responsiveness as surrogates for audit quality. There is no evidence for verifying a same relationship when we use the auditor’s independence and expertise for measuring audit quality.

Keywords: Audit quality, auditor’s rotation, reputation, capability, assurance, experience, responsiveness, independence, expertise.

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1413 Robot Movement Using the Trust Region Policy Optimization

Authors: Romisaa Ali

Abstract:

The Policy Gradient approach is a subset of the Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) combines Deep Neural Networks (DNN) with Reinforcement Learning (RL). This approach finds the optimal policy of robot movement, based on the experience it gains from interaction with its environment. Unlike previous policy gradient algorithms, which were unable to handle the two types of error variance and bias introduced by the DNN model due to over- or underestimation, this algorithm is capable of handling both types of error variance and bias. This article will discuss the state-of-the-art SOTA policy gradient technique, trust region policy optimization (TRPO), by applying this method in various environments compared to another policy gradient method, the Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), to explain their robust optimization, using this SOTA to gather experience data during various training phases after observing the impact of hyper-parameters on neural network performance.

Keywords: Deep neural networks, deep reinforcement learning, Proximal Policy Optimization, state-of-the-art, trust region policy optimization.

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1412 Stage-Gate Framework Application for Innovation Assessment among Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises

Authors: Indre Brazauskaite, Vilte Auruskeviciene

Abstract:

The paper explores the Stage-Gate framework application for innovation maturity among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Innovation management becomes an essential business survival process for all sizes of organizations that can be evaluated and audited systemically. This research systemically defines and assesses the innovation process from the perspective of the company’s top management. Empirical research explores attitudes and existing practices of innovation management in SMEs in Baltic countries. It structurally investigates the current innovation management practices, level of standardization, and potential challenges in the area. Findings allow to structure of existing practices based on an institutionalized model and contribute to a more advanced understanding of the innovation process among SMEs. Practically, findings contribute to advanced decision-making and business planning in the process.

Keywords: innovation measure, innovation process, small and medium-sized enterprises, SMEs, stage-gate framework.

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1411 Simulation of Natural Convection in Concentric Annuli between an Outer Inclined Square Enclosure and an Inner Horizontal Cylinder

Authors: Sattar Al-Jabair, Laith J. Habeeb

Abstract:

In this work, the natural convection in a concentric annulus between a cold outer inclined square enclosure and heated inner circular cylinder is simulated for two-dimensional steady state. The Boussinesq approximation was applied to model the buoyancy-driven effect and the governing equations were solved using the time marching approach staggered by body fitted coordinates. The coordinate transformation from the physical domain to the computational domain is set up by an analytical expression. Numerical results for Rayleigh numbers 103 , 104 , 105 and 106, aspect ratios 1.5 , 3.0 and 4.5 for seven different inclination angles for the outer square enclosure 0o , -30o , -45o , -60o , -90o , -135o , -180o are presented as well. The computed flow and temperature fields were demonstrated in the form of streamlines, isotherms and Nusselt numbers variation. It is found that both the aspect ratio and the Rayleigh number are critical to the patterns of flow and thermal fields. At all Rayleigh numbers angle of inclination has nominal effect on heat transfer.

Keywords: natural convection, concentric annulus, square inclined enclosure

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1410 Design and Analysis of a Piezoelectric-Based AC Current Measuring Sensor

Authors: Easa Ali Abbasi, Akbar Allahverdizadeh, Reza Jahangiri, Behnam Dadashzadeh

Abstract:

Electrical current measurement is a suitable method for the performance determination of electrical devices. There are two contact and noncontact methods in this measuring process. Contact method has some disadvantages like having direct connection with wire which may endamage the system. Thus, in this paper, a bimorph piezoelectric cantilever beam which has a permanent magnet on its free end is used to measure electrical current in a noncontact way. In mathematical modeling, based on Galerkin method, the governing equation of the cantilever beam is solved, and the equation presenting the relation between applied force and beam’s output voltage is presented. Magnetic force resulting from current carrying wire is considered as the external excitation force of the system. The results are compared with other references in order to demonstrate the accuracy of the mathematical model. Finally, the effects of geometric parameters on the output voltage and natural frequency are presented.

Keywords: Cantilever beam, electrical current measurement, forced excitation, piezoelectric.

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1409 Current Controlled Current Conveyor (CCCII)and Application using 65nm CMOS Technology

Authors: Zia Abbas, Giuseppe Scotti, Mauro Olivieri

Abstract:

Current mode circuits like current conveyors are getting significant attention in current analog ICs design due to their higher band-width, greater linearity, larger dynamic range, simpler circuitry, lower power consumption and less chip area. The second generation current controlled conveyor (CCCII) has the advantage of electronic adjustability over the CCII i.e. in CCCII; adjustment of the X-terminal intrinsic resistance via a bias current is possible. The presented approach is based on the CMOS implementation of second generation positive (CCCII+), negative (CCCII-) and dual Output Current Controlled Conveyor (DOCCCII) and its application as Universal filter. All the circuits have been designed and simulated using 65nm CMOS technology model parameters on Cadence Virtuoso / Spectre using 1V supply voltage. Various simulations have been carried out to verify the linearity between output and input ports, range of operation frequency, etc. The outcomes show good agreement between expected and experimental results.

Keywords: CCCII+, CCCII-, DOCCCII, Electronic tunability, Universal filter

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1408 Modeling the Symptom-Disease Relationship by Using Rough Set Theory and Formal Concept Analysis

Authors: Mert Bal, Hayri Sever, Oya Kalıpsız

Abstract:

Medical Decision Support Systems (MDSSs) are sophisticated, intelligent systems that can provide inference due to lack of information and uncertainty. In such systems, to model the uncertainty various soft computing methods such as Bayesian networks, rough sets, artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic, inductive logic programming and genetic algorithms and hybrid methods that formed from the combination of the few mentioned methods are used. In this study, symptom-disease relationships are presented by a framework which is modeled with a formal concept analysis and theory, as diseases, objects and attributes of symptoms. After a concept lattice is formed, Bayes theorem can be used to determine the relationships between attributes and objects. A discernibility relation that forms the base of the rough sets can be applied to attribute data sets in order to reduce attributes and decrease the complexity of computation.

Keywords: Formal Concept Analysis, Rough Set Theory, Granular Computing, Medical Decision Support System.

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1407 Integrated Models of Reading Comprehension: Understanding to Impact Teaching: The Teacher’s Central Role

Authors: Sally A. Brown

Abstract:

Over the last 30 years, researchers have developed models or frameworks to provide a more structured understanding of the reading comprehension process. Cognitive information processing models and social cognitive theories both provide frameworks to inform reading comprehension instruction. The purpose of this paper is to (a) provide an overview of the historical development of reading comprehension theory, (b) review the literature framed by cognitive information processing, social cognitive, and integrated reading comprehension theories, and (c) demonstrate how these frameworks inform instruction. As integrated models of reading can guide the interpretation of various factors related to student learning, an integrated framework designed by the researcher will be presented. Results indicated that features of cognitive processing and social cognitivism theory—represented in the integrated framework—highlight the importance of the role of the teacher. This model can aide teachers in not only improving reading comprehension instruction but in identifying areas of challenge for students.

Keywords: Explicit instruction, integrated models of reading comprehension, reading comprehension, teacher’s role.

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1406 Comparison of Bayesian and Regression Schemes to Model Public Health Services

Authors: Sotirios Raptis

Abstract:

Bayesian reasoning (BR) or Linear (Auto) Regression (AR/LR) can predict different sources of data using priors or other data, and can link social service demands in cohorts, while their consideration in isolation (self-prediction) may lead to service misuse ignoring the context. The paper advocates that BR with Binomial (BD), or Normal (ND) models or raw data (.D) as probabilistic updates can be compared to AR/LR to link services in Scotland and reduce cost by sharing healthcare (HC) resources. Clustering, cross-correlation, along with BR, LR, AR can better predict demand. Insurance companies and policymakers can link such services, and examples include those offered to the elderly, and low-income people, smoking-related services linked to mental health services, or epidemiological weight in children. 22 service packs are used that are published by Public Health Services (PHS) Scotland and Scottish Government (SG) from 1981 to 2019, broken into 110 year series (factors), joined using LR, AR, BR. The Primary component analysis found 11 significant factors, while C-Means (CM) clustering gave five major clusters.

Keywords: Bayesian probability, cohorts, data frames, regression, services, prediction.

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1405 Fuzzy Logic Control of a Semi-Active Quarter Car System

Authors: Devdutt, M. L. Aggarwal

Abstract:

The development of vehicles having best ride comfort and safety of travelling passengers is of great interest for automotive manufacturers. The effect of transmitted vibrations from car body to passenger seat is required to be controlled for achieving the same. The application of magneto-rheological (MR) shock absorber in suspension system has been considered to achieve significant benefits in this regard. This paper introduces a secondary suspension controlled semi-active quarter car system using MR shock absorber for effective vibration control. Fuzzy logic control system is used for design of controller for actual damping force generation by MR shock absorber. Performance evaluations are done related to passenger seat acceleration and displacement in time and frequency domains, in order to see the effectiveness of the proposed semi-active suspension system. Simulation results show that the semi-active suspension system provides better results compared to passive suspension system in terms of passenger ride comfort improvement.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic control, MR shock absorber, Quarter car model, Semi-active suspension system.

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1404 Impact of Government Spending on Private Consumption and on the Economy: The Case of Thailand

Authors: Paitoon Kraipornsak

Abstract:

Government spending is categorized into consumption spending and capital spending. Three categories of private consumption are used: food consumption, nonfood consumption, and services consumption. The estimated model indicates substitution effects of government consumption spending on budget shares of private nonfood consumption and of government capital spending on budget share of private food consumption. However, the results do not indicate whether the negative effects of changes in the budget shares of the nonfood and the food consumption equates to reduce total private consumption. The concept of aggregate demand comprising consumption, investment, government spending (consumption spending and capital spending), export, and import are used to estimate their relationship by using the Vector Error Correction Mechanism. The study found no effect of government capital spending on either the private consumption or the growth of GDP while the government consumption spending has negative effect on the growth of GDP.

Keywords: Complementary effect, government capital spending, government consumption spending, private consumption on food, nonfood, and services, substitution effect, vector error correction mechanism.

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1403 Ship Detection Requirements Analysis for Different Sea States: Validation on Real SAR Data

Authors: Jaime Martín-de-Nicolás, David Mata-Moya, Nerea del-Rey-Maestre, Pedro Gómez-del-Hoyo, María-Pilar Jarabo-Amores

Abstract:

Ship detection is nowadays quite an important issue in tasks related to sea traffic control, fishery management and ship search and rescue. Although it has traditionally been carried out by patrol ships or aircrafts, coverage and weather conditions and sea state can become a problem. Synthetic aperture radars can surpass these coverage limitations and work under any climatological condition. A fast CFAR ship detector based on a robust statistical modeling of sea clutter with respect to sea states in SAR images is used. In this paper, the minimum SNR required to obtain a given detection probability with a given false alarm rate for any sea state is determined. A Gaussian target model using real SAR data is considered. Results show that SNR does not depend heavily on the class considered. Provided there is some variation in the backscattering of targets in SAR imagery, the detection probability is limited and a post-processing stage based on morphology would be suitable.

Keywords: SAR, generalized gamma distribution, detection curves, radar detection.

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1402 Prioritizing Service Quality Dimensions:A Neural Network Approach

Authors: A. Golmohammadi, B. Jahandideh

Abstract:

One of the determinants of a firm-s prosperity is the customers- perceived service quality and satisfaction. While service quality is wide in scope, and consists of various dimensions, there may be differences in the relative importance of these dimensions in affecting customers- overall satisfaction of service quality. Identifying the relative rank of different dimensions of service quality is very important in that it can help managers to find out which service dimensions have a greater effect on customers- overall satisfaction. Such an insight will consequently lead to more effective resource allocation which will finally end in higher levels of customer satisfaction. This issue –despite its criticality- has not received enough attention so far. Therefore, using a sample of 240 bank customers in Iran, an artificial neural network is developed to address this gap in the literature. As customers- evaluation of service quality is a subjective process, artificial neural networks –as a brain metaphor- may appear to have a potentiality to model such a complicated process. Proposing a neural network which is able to predict the customers- overall satisfaction of service quality with a promising level of accuracy is the first contribution of this study. In addition, prioritizing the service quality dimensions in affecting customers- overall satisfaction –by using sensitivity analysis of neural network- is the second important finding of this paper.

Keywords: service quality, customer satisfaction, relativeimportance, artificial neural network.

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1401 The Modification of the Mixed Flow Pump with Respect to Stability of the Head Curve

Authors: Roman Klas, František Pochylý, Pavel Rudolf

Abstract:

This paper is focused on the CFD simulation of the radiaxial pump (i.e. mixed flow pump) with the aim to detect the reasons of Y-Q characteristic instability. The main reasons of pressure pulsations were detected by means of the analysis of velocity and pressure fields within the pump combined with the theoretical approach. Consequently, the modifications of spiral case and pump suction area were made based on the knowledge of flow conditions and the shape of dissipation function. The primary design of pump geometry was created as the base model serving for the comparison of individual modification influences. The basic experimental data are available for this geometry. This approach replaced the more complicated and with respect to convergence of all computational tasks more difficult calculation for the compressible liquid flow. The modification of primary pump consisted in inserting the three fins types. Subsequently, the evaluation of pressure pulsations, specific energy curves and visualization of velocity fields were chosen as the criterion for successful design. 

Keywords: CFD, radiaxial pump, spiral case, stability

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