Search results for: regression testing

Authors: Giovanni Masala, Stefania Marica

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Forecasting electricity load plays a crucial role regards decision making and planning for economical purposes. Besides, in the light of the recent privatization and deregulation of the power industry, the forecasting of future electricity load turned out to be a very challenging problem. Empirical data about electricity load highlights a clear seasonal behavior (higher load during the winter season), which is partly due to climatic effects. We also emphasize the presence of load periodicity at a weekly basis (electricity load is usually lower on weekends or holidays) and at daily basis (electricity load is clearly influenced by the hour). Finally, a long-term trend may depend on the general economic situation (for example, industrial production affects electricity load). All these features must be captured by the model. The purpose of this paper is then to build an hourly electricity load model. The deterministic component of the model requires non-linear regression and Fourier series while we will investigate the stochastic component through econometrical tools. The calibration of the parameters’ model will be performed by using data coming from the Italian market in a 6 year period (2007- 2012). Then, we will perform a Monte Carlo simulation in order to compare the simulated data respect to the real data (both in-sample and out-of-sample inspection). The reliability of the model will be deduced thanks to standard tests which highlight a good fitting of the simulated values.

Keywords: ARMA-GARCH process, electricity load, fitting tests, Fourier series, Monte Carlo simulation, non-linear regression.

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Authors: B. A. Parate, K. D. Deodhar, V. K. Dixit, V. Venkateswara Rao

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This article outlines the ballistics of main seat ejection cartridges for aircraft application. The ballistics of main seat ejection cartridges plays a vital role during the ejection of the pilot in an emergency. The ballistic parameters such as maximum pressure, time to reach the maximum pressure, and time required to reach half the maximum pressure that responsible to the spinal injury of the pilot are assessed. Therefore, the evaluations of these parameters are very critical during various stages of development. Elaborate testing is carried out for main seat ejection cartridges on seat ejection tower (SET) at different operating temperatures considering physiological limits. As these trials are cumbersome in nature, a vented vessel (VV) testing facility is devised to lay down the performance parameters at hot and cold temperature conditions. Single base (SB) propellant having hepta-tubular configuration is selected as the main filling. Gun powder plays the role of a booster based on ballistic requirements. The evaluation methodology of various performance parameters of main seat ejection cartridges is explained in this paper. Physiological parameters such as maximum seat ejection velocity, acceleration, and rate of rising of acceleration are also experimentally determined on SET. All the parameters are observed well within physiological limits. This paper addresses the internal ballistic of main seat ejection cartridges, propellant selection, its calculation, and evaluation of various performance parameters for aircraft application.

Keywords: Ballistics of seat ejection, ejection seat, gas generator, gun propulsion, main seat ejection cartridges, maximum pressure, performance parameters, propellant, progressive burning and vented vessel.

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Authors: M. Byzedi, B. Saghafian

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Droughts are complex, natural hazards that, to a varying degree, affect some parts of the world every year. The range of drought impacts is related to drought occurring in different stages of the hydrological cycle and usually different types of droughts, such as meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomical are distinguished. Streamflow drought was analyzed by the method of truncation level (at 70% level) on daily discharges measured in 54 hydrometric stations in southwestern Iran. Frequency analysis was carried out for annual maximum series (AMS) of drought deficit volume and duration series. Some factors including physiographic, climatic, geologic, and vegetation cover were studied as influential factors in the regional analysis. According to the results of factor analysis, six most effective factors were identified as area, rainfall from December to February, the percent of area with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) <0.1, the percent of convex area, drainage density and the minimum of watershed elevation that explained 90.9% of variance. The homogenous regions were determined by cluster analysis and discriminate function analysis. Suitable multivariate regression models were evaluated for streamflow drought deficit volume with 2 years return period. The significance level of regression models was 0.01. The results showed that the watershed area is the most effective factor with high correlation with deficit volume. Also, drought duration was not a suitable drought index for regional analysis.

Keywords: Iran, Streamflow drought, truncation level method, regional analysis.

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Authors: Kanthida Kusonmano, Michael Netzer, Bernhard Pfeifer, Christian Baumgartner, Klaus R. Liedl, Armin Graber

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Availability of high dimensional biological datasets such as from gene expression, proteomic, and metabolic experiments can be leveraged for the diagnosis and prognosis of diseases. Many classification methods in this area have been studied to predict disease states and separate between predefined classes such as patients with a special disease versus healthy controls. However, most of the existing research only focuses on a specific dataset. There is a lack of generic comparison between classifiers, which might provide a guideline for biologists or bioinformaticians to select the proper algorithm for new datasets. In this study, we compare the performance of popular classifiers, which are Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression, k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN), Naive Bayes, Decision Tree, and Random Forest based on mock datasets. We mimic common biological scenarios simulating various proportions of real discriminating biomarkers and different effect sizes thereof. The result shows that SVM performs quite stable and reaches a higher AUC compared to other methods. This may be explained due to the ability of SVM to minimize the probability of error. Moreover, Decision Tree with its good applicability for diagnosis and prognosis shows good performance in our experimental setup. Logistic Regression and Random Forest, however, strongly depend on the ratio of discriminators and perform better when having a higher number of discriminators.

Keywords: Classification, High dimensional data, Machine learning

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Authors: Mohd. A. M. Rahim, Yahaya Hassan, Mathumalar L. Fahrni

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Second line antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimen is used when patients fail their first line regimen. There are many factors such as non-adherence, drug resistance as well as virological and immunological failure that lead to second line highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) regimen treatment failure. This study was aimed at determining predictor factors to treatment failure with second line HAART and analyzing median survival time. An observational, retrospective study was conducted in Sungai Buloh Hospital (HSB) to assess current status of HIV patients treated with second line HAART regimen. Convenience sampling was used and 104 patients were included based on the study’s inclusion and exclusion criteria. Data was collected for six months i.e. from July until December 2013. Data was then analysed using SPSS version 18. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were used to measure median survival times and predictor factors for treatment failure. The study population consisted mainly of male subjects, aged 30- 45 years, who were heterosexual, and had HIV infection for less than 6 years. The most common second line HAART regimen given was lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r)-based combination. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that patients on LPV/r demonstrated longer median survival times than patients on indinavir/ritonavir (IDV/r) based combination (p<0.001). The commonest reason for a treatment to fail with second line HAART was non-adherence. Based on Cox regression analysis, other predictor factors for treatment failure with second line HAART regimen were age and mode of HIV transmission.

Keywords: Adherence, antiretroviral therapy, second line, treatment failure.

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Authors: S. Pirrello

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Sydney’s booming real estate market has pushed property developers to invest in historically “no-go” areas, which were previously too expensive to develop. These areas are usually near rivers where the sites are underlain by deep alluvial and estuarine sediments. In these ground conditions, conventional bored pile techniques are often not competitive. Contiguous Flight Auger (CFA) and Drilled Displacement (DD) Piles techniques are on the other hand suitable for these ground conditions. This paper deals with the design and construction challenges encountered with these piling techniques for a series of high-rise towers in Sydney’s West. The advantages of DD over CFA piles such as reduced overall spoil with substantial cost savings and achievable rock sockets in medium strength bedrock are discussed. Design performances were assessed with PIGLET. Pile performances are validated in two stages, during constructions with the interpretation of real-time data from the piling rigs’ on-board computer data, and after construction with analyses of results from high strain pile dynamic testing (PDA). Results are then presented and discussed. High Strain testing data are presented as Case Pile Wave Analysis Program (CAPWAP) analyses.

Keywords: Contiguous flight auger, case pile wave analysis, high strain pile, drilled displacement, pile performance.

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Authors: A. Nicknam, N. Eftekhari, A. Mazarei, M. Ganjvar

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This article presents an alternative collapse capacity intensity measure in the three elements form which is influenced by the spectral ordinates at periods longer than that of the first mode period at near and far source sites. A parameter, denoted by β, is defined by which the spectral ordinate effects, up to the effective period (2T1), on the intensity measure are taken into account. The methodology permits to meet the hazard-levelled target extreme event in the probabilistic and deterministic forms. A MATLAB code is developed involving OpenSees to calculate the collapse capacities of the 8 archetype RC structures having 2 to 20 stories for regression process. The incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method is used to calculate the structure’s collapse values accounting for the element stiffness and strength deterioration. The general near field set presented by FEMA is used in a series of performing nonlinear analyses. 8 linear relationships are developed for the 8structutres leading to the correlation coefficient up to 0.93. A collapse capacity near field prediction equation is developed taking into account the results of regression processes obtained from the 8 structures. The proposed prediction equation is validated against a set of actual near field records leading to a good agreement. Implementation of the proposed equation to the four archetype RC structures demonstrated different collapse capacities at near field site compared to those of FEMA. The reasons of differences are believed to be due to accounting for the spectral shape effects.

Keywords: Collapse capacity, fragility analysis, spectral shape effects, IDA method.

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Authors: Rajvir Kaur, Jeewani Anupama Ginige

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With recent trends in Big Data and advancements in Information and Communication Technologies, the healthcare industry is at the stage of its transition from clinician oriented to technology oriented. Many people around the world die of cancer because the diagnosis of disease was not done at an early stage. Nowadays, the computational methods in the form of Machine Learning (ML) are used to develop automated decision support systems that can diagnose cancer with high confidence in a timely manner. This paper aims to carry out the comparative evaluation of a selected set of ML classifiers on two existing datasets: breast cancer and cervical cancer. The ML classifiers compared in this study are Decision Tree (DT), Support Vector Machine (SVM), k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN), Logistic Regression, Ensemble (Bagged Tree) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The evaluation is carried out based on standard evaluation metrics Precision (P), Recall (R), F1-score and Accuracy. The experimental results based on the evaluation metrics show that ANN showed the highest-level accuracy (99.4%) when tested with breast cancer dataset. On the other hand, when these ML classifiers are tested with the cervical cancer dataset, Ensemble (Bagged Tree) technique gave better accuracy (93.1%) in comparison to other classifiers.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, breast cancer, cancer dataset, classifiers, cervical cancer, F-score, logistic regression, machine learning, precision, recall, support vector machine.

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Authors: Ana Gabriela Diaz, Luis Fermín Córdova, Jr., Roberto Lamazares

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The island of Cuba, the largest of the Greater Antilles, is located in the tropical North Atlantic. It is annually affected by numerous weather events, which have caused severe damage to our coastal areas. In the same way that many other coastlines around the world, the beautiful beaches of the Hicacos Peninsula also suffer from erosion. This leads to a structural regression of the coastline. If measures are not taken, the hotels will be exposed to the advance of the sea, and it will be a serious problem for the economy. With the aim of studying the intensity of this type of activity, specialists of group of coastal and marine engineering from CIH, in the framework of the research conducted within the project MEGACOSTAS 2, provide their research to simulate extreme events and assess their impact in coastal areas, mainly regarding the definition of flood volumes and morphodynamic changes in sandy beaches. The main objective of this work is the evaluation of the process of Varadero beach erosion (the coastal sector has an important impact in the country's economy) on the Hicacos Peninsula for different paths of hurricanes. The mathematical model XBeach, which was integrated into the Coastal engineering system introduced by the project of MEGACOSTA 2 to determine the area and the more critical profiles for the path of hurricanes under study, was applied. The results of this project have shown that Center area is the greatest dynamic area in the simulation of the three paths of hurricanes under study, showing high erosion volumes and the greatest average length of regression of the coastline, from 15- 22 m.

Keywords: Beach, erosion, mathematical model, coastal areas.

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Authors: A. A. Aiyeloja, A.T. Oladele, O. Tumulo

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Raphia wine is an important forest product with cultural significance besides its use as medicine and food in southern Nigeria. This work aims to evaluate the profitability of Raphia wine production and marketing in Sapele Local Government Area, Nigeria. Four communities (Sapele, Ogiede, Okuoke and Elume) were randomly selected for data collection via questionnaires among producers and marketers. A total of 50 producers and 34 marketers were randomly selected for interview. Data was analyzed using descriptive statistics, profit margin, multiple regression and rate of returns on investment (RORI). Annual average profit was highest in Okuoke (Producers – N90, 000.00, Marketers - N70, 000.00) and least in Sapele (Producers N50, 000.00, Marketers – N45, 000.00). Calculated RORI for marketers were Elume (40.0%), Okuoke (25.0%), Ogiede (33.3%) and Sapele (50.0%). Regression results showed that location has significant effects (0.000, ρ ≤ 0.05) on profit margins. Male (58.8%) and female (41.2%) invest in Raphia wine marketing, while males (100.0%) dominate production. Results showed that Raphia wine has potentials to generate household income, enhance food security and improve quality of life in rural, semi-urban and urban communities. Improved marketing channels, storage facilities and credit facilities via cooperative groups are recommended for producers and marketers by concerned agencies.

Keywords: Raphia wine, Profit margin, RORI, Livelihood, Nigeria.

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Authors: Takashi Kaburagi, Masashi Takenaka, Yosuke Kurihara, Takashi Matsumoto

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Major depressive disorder (MDD) is one of the most common mental illnesses today. It is believed to be caused by a combination of several factors, including stress. Stress can be quantitatively evaluated using the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), one of the best indices to evaluate anxiety. Although STAI scores are widely used in applications ranging from clinical diagnosis to basic research, the scores are calculated based on a self-reported questionnaire. An objective evaluation is required because the subject may intentionally change his/her answers if multiple tests are carried out. In this article, we present a modified index called the “multi-channel Laterality Index at Rest (mc-LIR)” by recording the brain activity from a wider area of the frontal lobe using multi-channel functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS). The presented index aims to measure multiple positions near the F_pz defined by the international 10-20 system positioning. Using 24 subjects, the dependencies on the number of measuring points used to calculate the mc-LIR and its correlation coefficients with the STAI scores are reported. Furthermore, a simple linear regression was performed to estimate the STAI scores from mc-LIR. The cross-validation error is also reported. The experimental results show that using multiple positions near the Fpz will improve the correlation coefficients and estimation than those using only two positions.

Keywords: Stress, functional near-infrared spectroscopy, frontal lobe, state-trait anxiety inventory score.

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Authors: Charawee Butbumrung

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This paper aimed to study the factors that relate to working behavior of employees at Pakkred Municipality, Nonthaburi Province. A questionnaire was utilized as the tool in collecting information. Descriptive statistics included frequency, percentage, mean and standard deviation. Independent- sample t- test, analysis of variance and Pearson Correlation were also used. The findings of this research revealed that the majority of the respondents were female, between 25- 35 years old, married, with a Bachelor degree. The average monthly salary of respondents was between 8,001- 12,000 Baht, and having about 4-7 years of working experience. Regarding the overall working motivation factors, the findings showed that interrelationship, respect, and acceptance were ranked as highly important factors, whereas motivation, remunerations & welfare, career growth, and working conditions were ranked as moderately important factors. Also, overall working behavior was ranked as high. The hypotheses testing revealed that different genders had a different working behavior and had a different way of working as a team, which was significant at the 0.05 confidence level, Moreover, there was a difference among employees with different monthly salary in working behavior, problem- solving and decision making, which all were significant at the 0.05 confidence level. Employees with different years of working experience were found to have work working behavior both individual and as a team at the statistical significance level of 0.01 and 0.05. The result of testing the relationship between motivation in overall working revealed that interrelationship, respect and acceptance from others, career growth, and working conditions related to working behavior at a moderate level, while motivation in performing duties and remunerations and welfares related to working behavior towards the same direction at a low level, with a statistical significance of 0.01.

Keywords: Employees of Pakkred Municipality, Factors, Nonthaburi Province, Working Behavior.

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Authors: Hema Nair

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This paper presents a new system developed in Java® for pattern recognition and pattern summarisation in multi-band (RGB) satellite images. The system design is described in some detail. Results of testing the system to analyse and summarise patterns in SPOT MS images and LANDSAT images are also discussed.

Keywords: Pattern recognition, image analysis, feature extraction, blackboard component, linguistic summary.

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Authors: T. Qasim, B. El Masoud, D. Ailabouni

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This in vitro study focused on investigating the fatigue resistance of veneered zirconia molar crowns with different veneering ceramic thicknesses, simulating the relative wear depths under simulated cyclic loading. A mandibular first molar was prepared and then scanned using computer-aided design/computer-aided manufacturing (CAD/CAM) technology to fabricate 32 zirconia copings of uniform 0.5 mm thickness. The manufactured copings then veneered with 1.5 mm, 1.0 mm, 0.5 mm, and 0.0 mm representing 0%, 33%, 66%, and 100% relative wear of a normal ceramic thickness of 1.5 mm. All samples were thermally aged to 6000 thermo-cycles for 2 minutes with distilled water between 5 ˚C and 55 ˚C. The samples subjected to cyclic fatigue and fracture testing using SD Mechatronik chewing simulator. These samples are loaded up to 1.25x10⁶ cycles or until they fail. During fatigue, testing, extensive cracks were observed in samples with 0.5 mm veneering layer thickness. Veneering layer thickness 1.5-mm group and 1.0-mm group were not different in terms of resisting loads necessary to cause an initial crack or final failure. All ceramic zirconia-based crown restorations with varying occlusal veneering layer thicknesses appeared to be fatigue resistant. Fracture load measurement for all tested groups before and after fatigue loading exceeded the clinical chewing forces in the posterior region. In general, the fracture loads increased after fatigue loading and with the increase in the thickness of the occlusal layering ceramic.

Keywords: All ceramic, dental crowns, relative wear, chewing simulator, cyclic loading, thermally ageing.

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Authors: Shorena Pharjiani

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Present empirical paper investigates the relationship between FDI and economic growth by 10 selected industries in 10 Central and Eastern European countries from the period 1995 to 2012. Different estimation approaches were used to explore the connection between FDI and economic growth, for example OLS, RE, FE with and without time dummies. Obtained empirical results leads to some main consequences: First, the Central and East European countries (CEEC) attracted foreign direct investment, which raised the productivity of industries they entered in. It should be concluded that the linkage between FDI and output growth by industries is positive and significant enough to suggest that foreign firm’s participation enhanced the productivity of the industries they occupied. There had been an endogeneity problem in the regression and fixed effects estimation approach was used which partially corrected the regression analysis in order to make the results less biased. Second, it should be stressed that the results show that time has an important role in making FDI operational for enhancing output growth by industries via total factor productivity. Third, R&D positively affected economic growth and at the same time, it should take some time for research and development to influence economic growth. Fourth, the general trends masked crucial differences at the country level: over the last 20 years, the analysis of the tables and figures at the country level show that the main recipients of FDI of the 11 Central and Eastern European countries were Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic. The main reason was that these countries had more open door policies for attracting the FDI. Fifth, according to the graphical analysis, while Hungary had the highest FDI inflow in this region, it was not reflected in the GDP growth as much as in other Central and Eastern European countries.

Keywords: Central and East European countries (CEEC), economic growth, FDI, panel data.

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Authors: Cathal Merz, Gareth O’Donnell

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Coil reinforced thin-walled (CRTW) tubes are used in medicine to treat problems affecting blood vessels within the body through minimally invasive procedures. The CRTW tube considered in this research makes up part of such a device and is inserted into the patient via their femoral or brachial arteries and manually navigated to the site in need of treatment. This procedure replaces the requirement to perform open surgery but is limited by reduction of blood vessel lumen diameter and increase in tortuosity of blood vessels deep in the brain. In order to maximize the capability of these procedures, CRTW tube devices are being manufactured with decreasing wall thicknesses in order to deliver treatment deeper into the body and to allow passage of other devices through its inner diameter. This introduces significant stresses to the device materials which have resulted in an observed increase in the breaking of the proximal segment of the device into two separate pieces after it has failed by buckling. As there is currently no international standard for measuring the mechanical properties of these CRTW tube devices, it is difficult to accurately analyze this problem. The aim of the current work is to address this discrepancy in the biomedical device industry by developing a measurement system that can be used to quantify the effect of process and design changes on CRTW tube performance, aiding in the development of better performing, next generation devices. Using materials testing frames, micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) imaging, experiment planning, analysis of variance (ANOVA), T-tests and regression analysis, test methods have been developed for assessing the impact of process and design changes on the device. The major findings of this study have been an insight into the suitability of buckle and three-point bend tests for the measurement of the effect of varying processing factors on the device’s performance, and guidelines for interpreting the output data from the test methods. The findings of this study are of significant interest with respect to verifying and validating key process and design changes associated with the device structure and material condition. Test method integrity evaluation is explored throughout.

Keywords: Buckling, coil reinforced thin-walled tubes, fracture, test method.

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Authors: Raissa A. Muzychkina, Irina M. Korulkina, Dmitriy Yu. Korulkin

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In article the data of acute toxicity for pre-clinical researches of Ramon preparation is described. Ramon effects to clinical characteristics of blood, cardio-vascular system, hepatotoxic and diuretic effects were studied.

Keywords: Cancer, toxicity, antitumor activity, pre-clinical testing, anthraquinones, phytopreparation, Ramon.

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Authors: David Ruiz, Carlos Nava, Roberto Carbajal

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The psychological profile has become one of the most important sources of information when it comes to individual selection and the hiring process in any organization. Psychological instruments are used to collect data about variables that are considered critically important for performance in work. However, because of conceptual chaos in organizational psychology, most of the information provided by psychological testing is not directly useful for Mexican human resources professionals to take hiring decisions. The aims of this paper are 1) to underline the lack of conceptual precision in theoretical testing foundations in Mexico and 2) presenting a reliability and validity analysis of a frustration tolerance instrument created as an alternative to a heuristically conduct individual assessment in organizations. First, a description of assessment conditions in Mexico is made. Second, an instrument and a theoretical framework is presented as an alternative to the assessment practices in the country. A total of 65 Psychology Iztacala Superior Studies Faculty students were assessed. Cronbach´s alpha coefficient was calculated and an exploratory factor analysis was carried out to prove the scale unidimensionality. Reliability analysis revealed good internal consistency of the scale (Cronbach’s α = 0.825). Factor analysis produced 4 factors for the scale. However, factor loadings and explained variation give proof to the scale unidimensionality. It is concluded that the instrument has good psychometric properties that will allow human resources professionals to collect useful data. Different possibilities to conduct psychological assessment are suggested for future development.

Keywords: Psychological assessment, frustration tolerance, human resources, organizational psychology.

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Authors: Alanoud Moraya Aldalan, Abdulaziz Almaleh

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A crucial part of maintaining a customer-oriented business in the telecommunications industry is understanding the reasons and factors that lead to customer churn. Competition between telecom companies has greatly increased in recent years, which has made it more important to understand customers’ needs in this strong market. For those who are looking to turn over their service providers, understanding their needs is especially important. Predictive churn is now a mandatory requirement for retaining customers in the telecommunications industry. Machine learning can be used to accomplish this. Churn Prediction has become a very important topic in terms of machine learning classification in the telecommunications industry. Understanding the factors of customer churn and how they behave is very important to building an effective churn prediction model. This paper aims to predict churn and identify factors of customers’ churn based on their past service usage history. Aiming at this objective, the study makes use of feature selection, normalization, and feature engineering. Then, this study compared the performance of four different machine learning algorithms on the Orange dataset: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Decision Tree, and Gradient Boosting. Evaluation of the performance was conducted by using the F1 score and ROC-AUC. Comparing the results of this study with existing models has proven to produce better results. The results showed the Gradients Boosting with feature selection technique outperformed in this study by achieving a 99% F1-score and 99% AUC, and all other experiments achieved good results as well.

Keywords: Machine Learning, Gradient Boosting, Logistic Regression, Churn, Random Forest, Decision Tree, ROC, AUC, F1-score.

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Authors: B. L. Ho, L. Shi, D. F. Wang, V. C. T. Mok

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The brain’s functional connectivity while temporally non-stationary does express consistency at a macro spatial level. The study of stable resting state connectivity patterns hence provides opportunities for identification of diseases if such stability is severely perturbed. A mathematical model replicating the brain’s spatial connections will be useful for understanding brain’s representative geometry and complements the empirical model where it falls short. Empirical computations tend to involve large matrices and become infeasible with fine parcellation. However, the proposed analytical model has no such computational problems. To improve replicability, 92 subject data are obtained from two open sources. The proposed methodology, inspired by financial theory, uses multivariate regression to find relationships of every cortical region of interest (ROI) with some pre-identified hubs. These hubs acted as representatives for the entire cortical surface. A variance-covariance framework of all ROIs is then built based on these relationships to link up all the ROIs. The result is a high level of match between model and empirical correlations in the range of 0.59 to 0.66 after adjusting for sample size; an increase of almost forty percent. More significantly, the model framework provides an intuitive way to delineate between systemic drivers and idiosyncratic noise while reducing dimensions by more than 30 folds, hence, providing a way to conduct attribution analysis. Due to its analytical nature and simple structure, the model is useful as a standalone toolkit for network dependency analysis or as a module for other mathematical models.

Keywords: Functional magnetic resonance imaging, multivariate regression, network hubs, resting state functional connectivity.

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Authors: Deng Shiwei

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The users are now expecting higher level of DSP(Digital Signal Processing) software quality than ever before. Prevention and detection of defect are critical elements of software quality assurance. In this paper, principles and rules for prevention and detection of defect are suggested, which are not universal guidelines, but are useful for both novice and experienced DSP software developers.

Keywords: defect detection, defect prevention, DSP-software, software development, software testing.

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Authors: Xiaolei Hu, Enrico Ferrera, Riccardo Tomasi, Claudio Pastrone

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Load Forecasting plays a key role in making today's and future's Smart Energy Grids sustainable and reliable. Accurate power consumption prediction allows utilities to organize in advance their resources or to execute Demand Response strategies more effectively, which enables several features such as higher sustainability, better quality of service, and affordable electricity tariffs. It is easy yet effective to apply Load Forecasting at larger geographic scale, i.e. Smart Micro Grids, wherein the lower available grid flexibility makes accurate prediction more critical in Demand Response applications. This paper analyses the application of short-term load forecasting in a concrete scenario, proposed within the EU-funded GreenCom project, which collect load data from single loads and households belonging to a Smart Micro Grid. Three short-term load forecasting techniques, i.e. linear regression, artificial neural networks, and radial basis function network, are considered, compared, and evaluated through absolute forecast errors and training time. The influence of weather conditions in Load Forecasting is also evaluated. A new definition of Gain is introduced in this paper, which innovatively serves as an indicator of short-term prediction capabilities of time spam consistency. Two models, 24- and 1-hour-ahead forecasting, are built to comprehensively compare these three techniques.

Keywords: Short-term load forecasting, smart micro grid, linear regression, artificial neural networks, radial basis function network, Gain.

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Authors: Sadhana Ghnayem

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This article examines the relationship between several socio-economic and background variables of Arab-Israeli families and their effect on the conflict management style of forcing, where teenage children are expected to obey their parents without questioning. The article explores the inter-generational gap and the desire of Arab-Israeli parents to force their teenage children to obey without questioning. The independent variables include: the sex of the parent, religion (Christian or Muslim), income of the parent, years of education of the parent, and the sex of the teenage child. We use the dependent variable of “Obedience Without Questioning” that is reported twice: by each of the parents as well as by the children. We circulated a questionnaire and collected data from a sample of 180 parents and their adolescent child living in the Galilee area during 2018. In this questionnaire we asked each of the parent and his/her teenage child about whether the latter is expected to follow the instructions of the former without questioning. The outcome of this article indicates, first, that Christian-Arab families are less authoritarian than Muslims families in demanding sheer obedience from their children. Second, female parents indicate more than male parents that their teenage child indeed obeys without questioning. Third, there is a negative correlation between the variable “Income” and “Obedience without Questioning.” Yet, the regression coefficient of this variable is close zero. Fourth, there is a positive correlation between years of education and obedience reported by the children. In other words, more educated parents are more likely to demand obedience from their children.  Finally, after running the regression, the study also found that the impact of the variables of religion as well as the sex of the child on the dependent variable of obedience is also significant at above 95 and 90%, respectively.

Keywords: Arab-Israeli parents, Obedience, Forcing, Inter-generational gap.

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Authors: Mohd Azman Abdul Latif, Erwan Basiron

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A flaw or drift from expected operational performance in one component (NAND, PMIC, controller, DRAM, etc.) may affect the reliability of the entire Solid State Drive (SSD) system. Therefore, it is important to ensure the required quality of each individual component through qualification testing specified using standards or user requirements. Qualification testing is time-consuming and comes at a substantial cost for product manufacturers. A highly technical team, from all the eminent stakeholders is embarking on reliability prediction from beginning of new product development, identify critical to reliability parameters, perform full-blown characterization to embed margin into product reliability and establish control to ensure the product reliability is sustainable in the mass production. The paper will discuss a comprehensive development framework, comprehending SSD end to end from design to assembly, in-line inspection, in-line testing and will be able to predict and to validate the product reliability at the early stage of new product development. During the design stage, the SSD will go through intense reliability margin investigation with focus on assembly process attributes, process equipment control, in-process metrology and also comprehending forward looking product roadmap. Once these pillars are completed, the next step is to perform process characterization and build up reliability prediction modeling. Next, for the design validation process, the reliability prediction specifically solder joint simulator will be established. The SSD will be stratified into Non-Operating and Operating tests with focus on solder joint reliability and connectivity/component latent failures by prevention through design intervention and containment through Temperature Cycle Test (TCT). Some of the SSDs will be subjected to the physical solder joint analysis called Dye and Pry (DP) and Cross Section analysis. The result will be feedbacked to the simulation team for any corrective actions required to further improve the design. Once the SSD is validated and is proven working, it will be subjected to implementation of the monitor phase whereby Design for Assembly (DFA) rules will be updated. At this stage, the design change, process and equipment parameters are in control. Predictable product reliability at early product development will enable on-time sample qualification delivery to customer and will optimize product development validation, effective development resource and will avoid forced late investment to bandage the end-of-life product failures. Understanding the critical to reliability parameters earlier will allow focus on increasing the product margin that will increase customer confidence to product reliability.

Keywords: e2e reliability prediction, SSD, TCT, Solder Joint Reliability, NUDD, connectivity issues, qualifications, characterization and control.

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Authors: Raissa A. Muzychkina, Irina M. Korulkina, Dmitriy Yu. Korulkin

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In article the data of chronic toxicity for pre-clinical researches of Ramon preparation is described. Ramon effects to hormone system and gastrointestinal tract; local irritative effect, allergic, pyrogenic properties and reaction to the immune system were studied.

Keywords: Cancer, toxicity, antitumor activity, pre-clinical testing, anthraquinones, phytopreparation, Ramon.

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Authors: Carolyn J. Ortega, Stephen E. Berger

Abstract:

The role of the custody evaluator is perhaps one of the most controversial and risky endeavors in clinical practice. Complaints filed with licensing boards regarding a child-custody evaluation constitute the second most common reason for such an event. Although the evaluator is expected to answer for the family-law court what is in the “best interest of the child,” there is a lack of clarity on how to establish this in any empirically validated manner. Hence, practitioners must contend with a nebulous framework in formulating their methodological procedures that inherently places them at risk in an already litigious context. This study sought to qualitatively investigate patterns of practice among doctoral practitioners conducting child custody evaluations in the area of Southern California. Ten psychologists were interviewed who devoted between 25 and 100% of their California private practice to custody work. All held Ph.D. degrees with a range of eight to 36 years of experience in custody work. Semi-structured interviews were used to investigate assessment practices, ensure adherence to guidelines, risk management, and qualities of evaluators. Forty-three Specific Themes were identified using Interpretive Phenomenological Analysis (IPA). Seven Higher Order Themes clustered on salient factors such as use of Ethics, Law, Guidelines; Parent Variables; Child Variables; Psychologist Variables; Testing; Literature; and Trends. Evaluators were aware of the ever-present reality of a licensure complaint and thus presented idiosyncratic descriptions of risk management considerations. Ambiguity about quantifying and validly tapping parenting abilities was also reviewed. Findings from this study suggested a high reliance on unstructured and observational methods in child custody practices.

Keywords: Forensic psychology, psychological testing, assessment methodology, child custody.

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Authors: Salah R. Al Zaidee, Ali S. Mahdi

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Except for simple problems of statically determinate structures, optimum design problems in structural engineering have implicit objective functions where structural analysis and design are essential within each searching loop. With these implicit functions, the structural engineer is usually enforced to write his/her own computer code for analysis, design, and searching for optimum design among many feasible candidates and cannot take advantage of available software for structural analysis, design, and searching for the optimum solution. The meta-model is a regression model used to transform an implicit objective function into objective one and leads in turn to decouple the structural analysis and design processes from the optimum searching process. With the meta-model, well-known software for structural analysis and design can be used in sequence with optimum searching software. In this paper, the meta-model has been used to develop an explicit objective function for plane steel frames subjected to dead, live, and seismic forces. Frame topology is assumed as predefined based on architectural and functional requirements. Columns and beams sections and different connections details are the main design variables in this study. Columns and beams are grouped to reduce the number of design variables and to make the problem similar to that adopted in engineering practice. Data for the implicit objective function have been generated based on analysis and assessment for many design proposals with CSI SAP software. These data have been used later in SPSS software to develop a pure quadratic nonlinear regression model for the explicit objective function. Good correlations with a coefficient, R², in the range from 0.88 to 0.99 have been noted between the original implicit functions and the corresponding explicit functions generated with meta-model.

Keywords: Meta-modal, objective function, steel frames, seismic analysis, design.

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Authors: V. Churkin, M. Lopatin

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The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second – 95,3%.

Keywords: Bass model, generalized Bass model, replacement purchases, sales forecasting of innovations, statistics of sales of small wind turbines in the United States.

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Authors: A. Felimban, A. Prieto, U. Knaack, T. Klein

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This study aims to present an overview of recent research in building energy-retrofitting strategy applications and analyzing them within the context of hot arid climate regions which is in this case study represented by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The main goal of this research is to do an analytical study of recent research approaches to show where the primary gap in knowledge exists and outline which possible strategies are available that can be applied in future research. Also, the paper focuses on energy retrofitting strategies at a building envelop level. The study is limited to specific measures within the hot arid climate region. Scientific articles were carefully chosen as they met the expression criteria, such as retrofitting, energy-retrofitting, hot-arid, energy efficiency, residential buildings, which helped narrow the research scope. Then the papers were explored through descriptive analysis and justified results within the Saudi context in order to draw an overview of future opportunities from the field of study for the last two decades. The conclusions of the analysis of the recent research confirmed that the field of study had a research shortage on investigating actual applications and testing of newly introduced energy efficiency applications, lack of energy cost feasibility studies and there was also a lack of public awareness. In terms of research methods, it was found that simulation software was a major instrument used in energy retrofitting application research. The main knowledge gaps that were identified included the need for certain research regarding actual application testing; energy retrofitting strategies application feasibility; the lack of research on the importance of how strategies apply first followed by the user acceptance of developed scenarios.

Keywords: Energy efficiency, energy retrofitting, hot arid climate, Saudi Arabia.

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Authors: Jörg Linde, Ekaterina Buyko, Robert Altwasser, Udo Hahn, Reinhard Guthke

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Reverse engineering of full-genomic interaction networks based on compendia of expression data has been successfully applied for a number of model organisms. This study adapts these approaches for an important non-model organism: The major human fungal pathogen Candida albicans. During the infection process, the pathogen can adapt to a wide range of environmental niches and reversibly changes its growth form. Given the importance of these processes, it is important to know how they are regulated. This study presents a reverse engineering strategy able to infer fullgenomic interaction networks for C. albicans based on a linear regression, utilizing the sparseness criterion (LASSO). To overcome the limited amount of expression data and small number of known interactions, we utilize different prior-knowledge sources guiding the network inference to a knowledge driven solution. Since, no database of known interactions for C. albicans exists, we use a textmining system which utilizes full-text research papers to identify known regulatory interactions. By comparing with these known regulatory interactions, we find an optimal value for global modelling parameters weighting the influence of the sparseness criterion and the prior-knowledge. Furthermore, we show that soft integration of prior-knowledge additionally improves the performance. Finally, we compare the performance of our approach to state of the art network inference approaches.

Keywords: Pathogen, network inference, text-mining, Candida albicans, LASSO, mutual information, reverse engineering, linear regression, modelling.

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