Search results for: single element

Authors: J.W. Xiang, M. Liang

Abstract:

This paper presents a method to detect multiple cracks based on frequency information. When a structure is subjected to dynamic or static loads, cracks may develop and the modal frequencies of the cracked structure may change. To detect cracks in a structure, we construct a high precision wavelet finite element (EF) model of a certain structure using the B-spline wavelet on the interval (BSWI). Cracks can be modeled by rotational springs and added to the FE model. The crack detection database will be obtained by solving that model. Then the crack locations and depths can be determined based on the frequency information from the database. The performance of the proposed method has been numerically verified by a rotor example.

Keywords: Rotor, frequency measurement, multiple cracks, wavelet finite element method, identification.

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Authors: S. K. Tomar, R. Prasad, S. Panda, C. Ardil

Abstract:

Reduction of Single Input Single Output (SISO) discrete systems into lower order model, using a conventional and an evolutionary technique is presented in this paper. In the conventional technique, the mixed advantages of Modified Cauer Form (MCF) and differentiation are used. In this method the original discrete system is, first, converted into equivalent continuous system by applying bilinear transformation. The denominator of the equivalent continuous system and its reciprocal are differentiated successively, the reduced denominator of the desired order is obtained by combining the differentiated polynomials. The numerator is obtained by matching the quotients of MCF. The reduced continuous system is converted back into discrete system using inverse bilinear transformation. In the evolutionary technique method, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is employed to reduce the higher order model. PSO method is based on the minimization of the Integral Squared Error (ISE) between the transient responses of original higher order model and the reduced order model pertaining to a unit step input. Both the methods are illustrated through numerical example.

Keywords: Discrete System, Single Input Single Output (SISO), Bilinear Transformation, Reduced Order Model, Modified CauerForm, Polynomial Differentiation, Particle Swarm Optimization, Integral Squared Error.

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Authors: Morteza Khaleghi Meybodi, Hossein Bisadi

Abstract:

Explosive forming is one of the unconventional techniques in which, most commonly, the water is used as the pressure transmission medium. One of the newest methods in explosive forming is gas detonation forming which uses a normal shock wave derived of gas detonation, to form sheet metals. For this purpose a detonation is developed from the reaction of H2+O2 mixture in a long cylindrical detonation tube. The detonation wave goes through the detonation tube and acts as a blast load on the steel blank and forms it. Experimental results are compared with a finite element model; and the comparison of the experimental and numerical results obtained from strain, thickness variation and deformed geometry is carried out. Numerical and experimental results showed approximately 75 – 90 % similarity in formability of desired shape. Also optimum percent of gas mixture obtained when we mix 68% H2 with 32% O2.

Keywords: Explosive forming, High strain rate, Gas detonation, Finite element analysis.

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Authors: Yunjia Wang, Zhihong Zhao, Erxiang Song

Abstract:

Rockfills are widely used in civil engineering, such as dams, railways, and airport foundations in mountain areas. A significant long-term post-construction settlement may affect the serviceability or even the safety of rockfill infrastructures. The creep behavior of rockfills is influenced by a number of factors, such as particle size, strength and shape, water condition and stress level. However, the effect of particle shape on rockfill creep still remains poorly understood, which deserves a careful investigation. Particle-based discrete element method (DEM) was used to simulate the creep behavior of rockfills under different boundary conditions. Both angular and rounded particles were considered in this numerical study, in order to investigate the influence of particle shape. The preliminary results showed that angular particles experience more breakages and larger creep strains under one-dimensional compression than rounded particles. On the contrary, larger creep strains were observed in he rounded specimens in the direct shear test. The mechanism responsible for this difference is that the possibility of the existence of key particle in rounded particles is higher than that in angular particles. The above simulations demonstrate that the influence of particle shape on the creep behavior of rockfills can be simulated by DEM properly. The method of DEM simulation may facilitate our understanding of deformation properties of rockfill materials.

Keywords: Rockfills, creep behavior, particle crushing, discrete element method, boundary conditions.

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Authors: Christoph Mayer, Dominik Holzmann

Abstract:

This paper presents the development of a compact, portable and easy to handle solar cell characterization device. The presented device reduces the effort and cost of single solar cell characterization to a minimum. It enables realistic characterization of cells under sunlight within minutes. In the field of photovoltaic research the common way to characterize a single solar cell or a module is, to measure the current voltage curve. With this characteristic the performance and the degradation rate can be defined which are important for the consumer or developer. The paper consists of the system design description, a summary of the measurement results and an outline for further developments.

Keywords: Solar cell, photovoltaics, PV, characterization.

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Authors: Ahmed Shariful Alam, Abu Hena M. Mustafa Kamal, M. Abdul Rahman, M. Nasmus Sakib Khan Shabbir, Atiqul Islam

Abstract:

According to the rules of quantum mechanics there is a non-vanishing probability of for an electron to tunnel through a thin insulating barrier or a thin capacitor which is not possible according to the laws of classical physics. Tunneling of electron through a thin insulating barrier or tunnel junction is a random event and the magnitude of current flowing due to the tunneling of electron is very low. As the current flowing through a Single Electron Transistor (SET) is the result of electron tunneling through tunnel junctions of its source and drain the supply voltage requirement is also very low. As a result, the power consumption across a Single Electron Transistor is ultra-low in comparison to that of a MOSFET. In this paper simulations have been done with PSPICE for an inverter built with both SETs and MOSFETs. 35mV supply voltage was used for a SET built inverter circuit and the supply voltage used for a CMOS inverter was 3.5V.

Keywords: ITRS, enhancement type MOSFET, island, DC analysis, transient analysis, power consumption, background charge co-tunneling.

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Authors: Maziar Ramezani, Thomas Neitzert

Abstract:

A dent is a gross distortion of the pipe cross-section. Dent depth is defined as the maximum reduction in the diameter of the pipe compared to the original diameter. Pipeline dent finite element (FE) simulation and theoretical analysis are conducted in this paper to develop an understanding of the geometric characteristics and strain distribution in the pressurized dented pipe. Based on the results, the magnitude of the denting force increases significantly with increasing the internal pressure, and the maximum circumferential and longitudinal strains increase by increasing the internal pressure and the dent depth. The results can be used for characterizing dents and ranking their risks to the integrity of a pipeline.

Keywords: dented steel pipelines, Finite element model, Internal pressure, Strain distribution

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Authors: M. A. Sadeghian, J. Yang, Q. F. Liu

Abstract:

Steel extended end plate bolted connections are recommended to be widely utilized in special moment-resisting frame subjected to monotonic loading. Improper design of steel beam to column connection can lead to the collapse and fatality of structures. Therefore comprehensive research studies of beam to column connection design should be carried out. Also the performance and effect of corrugated on the strength of beam column end plate connection up to failure under monotonic loading in horizontal direction is presented in this paper. The non-linear elastic–plastic behavior has been considered through a finite element analysis using the multi-purpose software package LUSAS. The effect of vertically and horizontally types of corrugated web was also investigated.

Keywords: Corrugated beam, monotonic loading, finite element analysis, end plate connection.

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Authors: F. Al-Mufadi, F. Djavanroodi

Abstract:

During the last decade ultrafine grained (UFG) and nano-structured (NS) materials have experienced a rapid development. In this research work finite element analysis has been carried out to investigate the plastic strain distribution in equal channel angular process (ECAP). The magnitudes of Standard deviation (S. D.) and inhomogeneity index (C_i) were compared for different ECAP passes. Verification of a three-dimensional finite element model was performed with experimental tests. Finally the mechanical property including impact energy of ultrafine grained pure commercially pure Aluminum produced by severe plastic deformation method has been examined. For this aim, equal channel angular pressing die with the channel angle, outer corner angle and channel diameter of 90^°, 20^° and 20mm had been designed and manufactured. Commercial pure Aluminum billets were ECAPed up to four passes by route B_C at the ambient temperature. The results indicated that there is a great improvement at the hardness measurement, yield strength and ultimate tensile strength after ECAP process. It is found that the magnitudes of HV reach 67HV from 21HV after the final stage of process. Also, about 330% and 285% enhancement at the YS and UTS values have been obtained after the fourth pass as compared to the as-received conditions, respectively. On the other hand, the elongation to failure and impact energy have been reduced by 23% and 50% after imposing four passes of ECAP process, respectively.

Keywords: SPD, ECAP, FEM, Pure Al, Mechanical properties.

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Authors: Sidhartha Panda, Narayana Prasad Padhy

Abstract:

With constraints on data availability and for study of power system stability it is adequate to model the synchronous generator with field circuit and one equivalent damper on q-axis known as the model 1.1. This paper presents a systematic procedure for modelling and simulation of a single-machine infinite-bus power system installed with a thyristor controlled series compensator (TCSC) where the synchronous generator is represented by model 1.1, so that impact of TCSC on power system stability can be more reasonably evaluated. The model of the example power system is developed using MATLAB/SIMULINK which can be can be used for teaching the power system stability phenomena, and also for research works especially to develop generator controllers using advanced technologies. Further, the parameters of the TCSC controller are optimized using genetic algorithm. The non-linear simulation results are presented to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Genetic algorithm, MATLAB/SIMULINK, modelling and simulation, power system stability, single-machineinfinite-bus power system, thyristor controlled series compensator.

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Authors: Arti Vaish, Harish Parthasarathy

Abstract:

The scalar wave equation for a potential in a curved space time, i.e., the Laplace-Beltrami equation has been studied in this work. An action principle is used to derive a finite element algorithm for determining the modes of propagation inside a waveguide of arbitrary shape. Generalizing this idea, the Maxwell theory in a curved space time determines a set of linear partial differential equations for the four electromagnetic potentials given by the metric of space-time. Similar to the Einstein-s formulation of the field equations of gravitation, these equations are also derived from an action principle. In this paper, the expressions for the action functional of the electromagnetic field have been derived in the presence of gravitational field.

Keywords: General theory of relativity, electromagnetism, metric tensor, Maxwells equations, test functions, finite element method.

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Authors: P. Mottaghizadeh, M. Bagheri

Abstract:

In the present paper, the three-dimensional temperature field of tool is determined during the machining and compared with experimental work on C45 workpiece using carbide cutting tool inserts. During the metal cutting operations, high temperature is generated in the tool cutting edge which influence on the rate of tool wear. Temperature is most important characteristic of machining processes; since many parameters such as cutting speed, surface quality and cutting forces depend on the temperature and high temperatures can cause high mechanical stresses which lead to early tool wear and reduce tool life. Therefore, considerable attention is paid to determine tool temperatures. The experiments are carried out for dry and orthogonal machining condition. The results show that the increase of tool temperature depends on depth of cut and especially cutting speed in high range of cutting conditions.

Keywords: Finite element method, Machining, Temperature measurement, Thermal fields

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Authors: J. Marzbanrad, A. Yadollahi

Abstract:

In the present paper, Fatigue life assessment of an anti-roll bar component of a passenger vehicle, is investigated by ANSYS 11 software. A stress analysis is also carried out by the finite element technique for the determination of highly stressed regions on the bar. Anti-roll bar is a suspension element used at the front, rear, or at both ends of a car that reduces body roll by resisting any unequal vertical motion between the pair of wheels to which it is connected. As a first stage, fatigue damage models proposed by some well-known references and the corresponding assumptions are discussed and some enhancements are proposed. Then, fracture analysis of an anti-roll bar of an automobile is carried out. The analysed type of the anti-roll bar is especially important as many cases are reported about the fracture after a 100,000 km of travel fatigue and fracture conditions. This paper demonstrates fatigue life of an anti-roll bar and then evaluated by experimental analytically results from other researcher.

Keywords: Anti-roll bar, Fracture, Fatigue life, Random loading

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Authors: Ali Raad Hassan

Abstract:

Contact stress analysis between two spur gear teeth was considered in different contact positions, representing a pair of mating gears during rotation. A programme has been developed to plot a pair of teeth in contact. This programme was run for each 3° of pinion rotation from the first location of contact to the last location of contact to produce 10 cases. Each case was represented a sequence position of contact between these two teeth. The programme gives graphic results for the profiles of these teeth in each position and location of contact during rotation. Finite element models were made for these cases and stress analysis was done. The results were presented and finite element analysis results were compared with theoretical calculations, wherever available.

Keywords: Contact stress, Spur gear, Contact ratio, Finite elements

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Authors: Irene K. Amponsah, Bennony K. Gordor, Francis Dogbey

Abstract:

This paper introduces a technique for simulating a single-server exponential queuing system. The technique called the Q-Simulator is a computer program which can simulate the effect of traffic intensity on all system average quantities given the arrival and/or service rates. The Q-Simulator has three phases namely: the formula based method, the uncontrolled simulation, and the controlled simulation. The Q-Simulator generates graphs (crystal solutions) for all results of the simulation or calculation and can be used to estimate desirable average quantities such as waiting times, queue lengths, etc.

Keywords: Automation system-Simulator, Simulation, Singleserver exponential system

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Authors: H. Nouri, A. Tabbel, N. Douib, H. Aitsaid, Y. Zebboudj

Abstract:

This study and the field test comparisons were carried out on the Algerian Derguna – Setif transmission systems. The transmission line of normal voltage 225 kV is 65 km long, transported and uses twin bundle conductors protected with two shield wires of transposed galvanized steel. An iterative finite-element method is used to solve Poisons equation. Two algorithms are proposed for satisfying the current continuity condition and updating the space-charge density. A new approach to the problem of corona discharge in transmission system has been described in this paper. The effect of varying the configurations and wires number is also investigated. The analysis of this steady is important in the design of HVDC transmission lines. The potential and electric field have been calculating in locations singular points of the system.

Keywords: Corona discharge, Electric field, Finite element method, HVDC.

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Authors: Md Rashadul Islam, Umme Amina Mannan, Rafiqul A. Tarefder

Abstract:

Stiffness of Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA) in flexible pavement is largely dependent of temperature, mode of testing and age of pavement. Accurate measurement of HMA stiffness is thus quite challenging. This study determines HMA stiffness based on Finite Element Model (FEM) and validates the results using field data. As a first step, stiffnesses of different layers of a pavement section on Interstate 40 (I-40) in New Mexico were determined by Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) test. Pavement temperature was not measured at that time due to lack of temperature probe. Secondly, a FE model is developed in ABAQUS. Stiffness of the base, subbase and subgrade were taken from the FWD test output obtained from the first step. As HMA stiffness largely varies with temperature it was assigned trial and error approach. Thirdly, horizontal strain and vertical stress at the bottom of the HMA and temperature at different depths of the pavement were measured with installed sensors on the whole day on December 25th, 2012. Fourthly, outputs of FEM were correlated with measured stress-strain responses. After a number of trials a relationship was developed between the trial stiffness of HMA and measured mid-depth HMA temperature. At last, the obtained relationship between stiffness and temperature is verified by further FWD test when pavement temperature was recorded. A promising agreement between them is observed. Therefore, conclusion can be drawn that linear elastic FEM can accurately predict the stiffness and the structural response of flexible pavement.

Keywords: Asphalt pavement, falling weight deflectometer test, field instrumentation, finite element model, horizontal strain, temperature probes.

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Authors: H. M. Mobarak, Helen Wu, Keqin Xiao

Abstract:

In this work, a three-dimensional finite element model was developed to investigate the crack breathing behavior at different crack locations considering the effect of unbalance force. A two-disk rotor with a crack is simulated using ABAQUS. The duration of each crack status (open, closed and partially open/closed) during a full shaft rotation was examined to analyse the crack breathing behavior. Unbalanced shaft crack breathing behavior was found to be different at different crack locations. The breathing behavior of crack along the shaft length is divided into different regions depending on the unbalance force and crack location. The simulated results in this work can be further utilised to obtain the time-varying stiffness matrix of the cracked shaft element under the influence of unbalance force.

Keywords: Crack breathing, crack location, slant crack, unbalance force, rotating shaft.

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Authors: L. Dahmani, S. Drizi, M. Djemai, A. Boudjemia, M. O. Mechiche

Abstract:

Channel sections are widely used in practice as beams. However, design rules for eccentrically loaded (not through shear center) beams with channel cross- sections are not available in Eurocode 3. This paper compares the ultimate loads based on the adjusted design rules for lateral torsional buckling of eccentrically loaded channel beams in bending to the ultimate loads obtained with Finite Element (FE) simulations on the basis of a parameter study. Based on the proposed design rule, this study has led to a new design rule which conforms to Eurocode 3.

Keywords: ANSYS, Eurocode 3, finite element method, lateral torsional buckling, steel channel beam.

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Authors: M. Ahmad, M. Gourgand, C. Caux

Abstract:

The Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling Problem (RCPSP) is concerned with single-item or small batch production where limited resources have to be allocated to dependent activities over time. Over the past few decades, a lot of work has been made with the use of optimal solution procedures for this basic problem type and its extensions. Brucker and Knust[1] discuss, how timetabling problems can be modeled as a RCPSP. Authors discuss high school timetabling and university course timetabling problem as an example. We have formulated two mathematical formulations of course timetabling problem in a new way which are the prototype of single-mode RCPSP. Our focus is to show, how course timetabling problem can be transformed into RCPSP. We solve this transformation model with genetic algorithm.

Keywords: Course Timetabling, Integer programming, Combinatorial optimizations

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Authors: Abdelazim Makki Ibrahim, Esamaldeen Ali

Abstract:

This study aims at analysing the load settlement behavior and predict the bearing capacity of piled raft foundation a series of finite element models with different foundation configurations and stiffness were established. Numerical modeling is used to study the behavior of the piled raft foundation due to the complexity of piles, raft, and soil interaction and also due to the lack of reliable analytical method that can predict the behavior of the piled raft foundation system. Simple analytical models are developed to predict the average settlement and the load sharing between the piles and the raft in piled raft foundation system. A simple example to demonstrate the applications of these charts is included.

Keywords: Finite element, pile-raft foundation, method, PLAXIS software, settlement.

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Authors: S. Dorbani, F. Kharchi, F. Salem, K. Arroudj, N. Chioukh

Abstract:

The need for thermal comfort of buildings, with the aim of saving energy, has always generated a big interest during the development of methods, to improve the mode of construction. In the present paper, which is concerned by the valorization of locally abundant materials, mixtures of plaster and dune sand have been studied. To point out the thermal performances of these mixtures, a comparative study has been established between this product and the two materials most commonly used in construction, the concrete and hollow brick. The results showed that optimal mixture is made with 1/3 plaster and 2/3 dune sand. This mortar achieved significant increases in the mechanical strengths, which allow it to be used as a carrier element for buildings, of up to two levels. The element obtained offers an acceptable thermal insulation, with a decrease the outer-wall construction thickness.

Keywords: Local materials, mortar, plaster, dune sand, compaction, mechanical performance, thermal performance.

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Authors: Corné J. Coetzee, Etienne Horn

Abstract:

One of the main challenges in using the Discrete Element Method (DEM) is to specify the correct input parameter values. In general, the models are sensitive to the input parameter values and accurate results can only be achieved if the correct values are specified. For the linear contact model, micro-parameters such as the particle density, stiffness, coefficient of friction, as well as the particle size and shape distributions are required. There is a need for a procedure to accurately calibrate these parameters before any attempt can be made to accurately model a complete bulk materials handling system. Since DEM is often used to model applications in the mining and quarrying industries, a calibration procedure was developed for materials that consist of relatively large (up to 40 mm in size) particles. A coarse crushed aggregate was used as the test material. Using a specially designed large shear box with a diameter of 590 mm, the confined Young’s modulus (bulk stiffness) and internal friction angle of the material were measured by means of the confined compression test and the direct shear test respectively. DEM models of the experimental setup were developed and the input parameter values were varied iteratively until a close correlation between the experimental and numerical results was achieved. The calibration process was validated by modelling the pull-out of an anchor from a bed of material. The model results compared well with experimental measurement.

Keywords: Discrete Element Method (DEM), calibration, shear box, anchor pull-out.

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Authors: S. Sendhil Kumar, M. Senthil Kumar

Abstract:

Maintenance and design engineers have great concern for the functioning of rotating machineries due to the vibration phenomenon. Improper functioning in rotating machinery originates from the damage to rolling element bearings. The status of rolling element bearings require advanced technologies to monitor their health status efficiently and effectively. Avoiding vibration during machine running conditions is a complicated process. Vibration simulation should be carried out using suitable sensors/ transducers to recognize the level of damage on bearing during machine operating conditions. Various issues arising in rotating systems are interlinked with bearing faults. This paper presents an approach for fault diagnosis of bearings using neural networks and time/frequencydomain vibration analysis.

Keywords: Bearing vibration, Condition monitoring, Fault diagnosis, Frequency domain.

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Authors: F. Rezaie Moghaddam, J. Amani, T. Rezaie Moghaddam

Abstract:

Many computational techniques were applied to solution of heat conduction problem. Those techniques were the finite difference (FD), finite element (FE) and recently meshless methods. FE is commonly used in solution of equation of heat conduction problem based on the summation of stiffness matrix of elements and the solution of the final system of equations. Because of summation process of finite element, convergence rate was decreased. Hence in the present paper Cellular Automata (CA) approach is presented for the solution of heat conduction problem. Each cell considered as a fixed point in a regular grid lead to the solution of a system of equations is substituted by discrete systems of equations with small dimensions. Results show that CA can be used for solution of heat conduction problem.

Keywords: Heat conduction, Cellular automata, convergencerate, discrete system.

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Authors: V. Goremikins, K. Rocens, D. Serdjuks

Abstract:

Suspended cable structures are most preferable for large spans covering due to rational use of structural materials, but the problem of suspended cable structures is initial shape change under the action of non-symmetrical load. The problem can be solved by increasing of relation of dead weight and imposed load, but this methods cause increasing of materials consumption.Prestressed cable truss usage is another way how the problem of shape change under the action of non-symmetrical load can be fixed. The better results can be achieved if we replace top chord with cable truss with cross web. Rational structure of the cable truss for prestressed cable truss top chord was developed using optimization realized in FEM program ANSYS 12 environment. Single cable and cable truss model work was discovered.Analytical and model testing results indicate, that usage of cable truss with the cross web as a top chord of prestressed cable truss instead of single cable allows to reduce total displacements by 13-16% in the case of non-symmetrical load. In case of uniformly distributed load single cable is preferable.

Keywords: Cable trusses, Non-symmetrical load, Cable truss models, Vertical displacements

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Authors: Paniz Tafakori, Ali A. Orouji

Abstract:

In this paper the features of multiple material gate silicon-on-insulator MOSFETs are presented and compared with single material gate silicon-on-insulator MOSFET structures. The results indicate that the multiple material gate structures reduce short channel effects such as drain induce barrier lowering, hot electron effect and better current characteristics in comparison with single material structures

Keywords: Short-channel effects (SCEs), Dual material gate (DMG), Triple material gate (TMG), Pentamerous material gate (PMG).

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Authors: Nor Azali Azmir, Iskhrizat Taib, Mohammed Rafiq Abdul Kadir

Abstract:

The primary cause of Total Hip Replacement (THR) failure for younger patients is aseptic loosening. This complication is twice more likely to happen in acetabular cup than in femoral stem. Excessive micromotion between bone and implant will cause loosening and it depends in patient activities, age and bone. In this project, the effects of different metal back design of press fit on osseointegration of the acetabular cup are carried out. Commercial acetabular cup designs, namely Spiked, Superfix and Quadrafix are modelled and analyzed using commercial finite element software. The diameter of acetabular cup is based on the diameter of acetabular rim to make sure the component fit to the acetabular cavity. A new design of acetabular cup are proposed and analyzed to get better osseointegration between the bones and implant interface. Results shows that the proposed acetabular cup designs are more stable compared to other designs with respect to stress and displacement aspects.

Keywords: Finite element analysis, total hip replacement, acetabular cup, loosening.

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Authors: J. Lonska, V. Boronenko

Abstract:

The result of process of territory-s development is the territory-s state of development (TSoD), which is pointed towards the provision and improvement of people-s life conditions. The authors offer to measure the TSoD according to their own developed model. Using the available statistical data regarding the values of model-s elements, the authors empirically show which element mainly determines the TSoD. The findings of the research showed that the key elements of the TSoD are the “Material welfare of people" and “People-s health". Performing a deeper statistical analysis of correlation between these elements, it turned out that it is not so necessary for a country to be bent on trying to increase the material growth of a territory, because a relatively high index of life expectancy at birth could be ensured also by much more modest material resources. On the other hand, the economical feedback of longer lifespan within countries with lower material performance is also relatively low.

Keywords: Development indices, health, territory's state of development, wealth.

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Authors: Serap Akcan, Ali Kokangul

Abstract:

We consider a single-echelon, single-item inventory system where both demand and lead-time are stochastic. Continuous review policy is used to control the inventory system. The objective is to calculate the reorder point level under stochastic parameters. A case study is presented in Neonatal Intensive Care Unit.

Keywords: Inventory control system, reorder point level, stochastic demand, stochastic lead time

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