Search results for: financial models

Authors: Mohammed H. Mohammed, Mats Emborg, Roland Pusch, Sven Knutsson

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Concrete performance is strongly affected by the particle packing degree since it determines the distribution of the cementitious component and the interaction of mineral particles. By using packing theory designers will be able to select optimal aggregate materials for preparing concrete with low cement content, which is beneficial from the point of cost. Optimum particle packing implies minimizing porosity and thereby reducing the amount of cement paste needed to fill the voids between the aggregate particles, taking also the rheology of the concrete into consideration. For reaching good fluidity superplasticizers are required. The results from pilot tests at Luleå University of Technology (LTU) show various forms of the proposed theoretical models, and the empirical approach taken in the study seems to provide a safer basis for developing new, improved packing models.

Keywords: Aggregate mix, Computer program, Concrete mix design, Models of packing.

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Authors: Vu Ngoc Pi

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In this paper, a study on the applications of the optimization and regression techniques for optimal calculation of partial ratios of helical gearboxes with second-step double gear-sets for minimal cross section dimension is introduced. From the condition of the moment equilibrium of a mechanic system including three gear units and their regular resistance condition, models for calculation of the partial ratios of helical gearboxes with second-step double gear-sets were given. Especially, by regression analysis, explicit models for calculation of the partial ratios are introduced. These models allow determining the partial ratios accurately and simply.

Keywords: Gearbox design, optimal design, helical gearbox, transmission ratio.

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Authors: Hung T. Tsou, Hsuan Y. Hsu

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Service innovations are central concerns in fast changing environment. Due to the fitness in customer demands and advances in information technologies (IT) in service management, an expanded conceptualization of e-service innovation is required. Specially, innovation practices have become increasingly more challenging, driving managers to employ a different open innovation model to maintain competitive advantages. At the same time, firms need to interact with external and internal customers in innovative environments, like the open innovation networks, to co-create values. Based on these issues, an important conceptual framework of e-service innovation is developed. This paper aims to examine the contributing factors on e-service innovation and firm performance, including financial and non-financial aspects. The study concludes by showing how e-service innovation will play a significant role in growing the overall values of the firm. The discussion and conclusion will lead to a stronger understanding of e-service innovation and co-creating values with customers within open innovation networks.

Keywords: e-Service innovation, performance, open innovation networks, co-create value.

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Authors: F. Niazkar, N. Arab-Moghaddam

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In this research, effort was made to identify and evaluate barriers to the development of entrepreneurship among Iranian entrepreneur women who were graduated from universities. In this study, perspectives of thirty-seven available entrepreneur women were examined. In order to prepare questionnaires and receive knowledge about barriers among these women, seven cases of entrepreneur women took part in in-depth interviews. Then, to evaluate the importance of barriers, the researchers made a questionnaire with closed questions in which the barriers were classified into the following categories: personal-familial barriers; socio-cultural barriers; economic-financial-commercial barriers; and structural barriers. Entrepreneur women were requested to rate the importance of each item. The results indicated that there were different obstacles among entrepreneur women. The order of the important barriers was as fallow: economic-financial-commercial, structural, socio-cultural, and personal-familial.

Keywords: Barriers to Entrepreneurship, Entrepreneur Women

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Authors: Baeza S. Roberto

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The knitted fabric suffers a deformation in its dimensions due to stretching and tension factors, transverse and longitudinal respectively, during the process in rectilinear knitting machines so it performs a dry relaxation shrinkage procedure and thermal action of prefixed to obtain stable conditions in the knitting. This paper presents a dry relaxation shrinkage prediction of Bordeaux fiber using a feed forward neural network and linear regression models. Six operational alternatives of shrinkage were predicted. A comparison of the results was performed finding neural network models with higher levels of explanation of the variability and prediction. The presence of different reposes is included. The models were obtained through a neural toolbox of Matlab and Minitab software with real data in a knitting company of Southern Guanajuato. The results allow predicting dry relaxation shrinkage of each alternative operation.

Keywords: Neural network, dry relaxation, knitting, linear regression.

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Authors: G. Arslan, S. Kivrak

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Achieving success is a highly critical issue for the companies to survive in a competitive business environment. The construction industry is also an area where there is strong competition due to a large number of construction contractors. There have been many factors such as qualified employees, quality workmanship and financial management that can lead to company success in the construction industry. The aim of this study was to investigate the critical factors leading to construction company success. Within this context, a survey was carried out among 40 Turkish construction companies which are located in the Northwest region of Turkey. In this survey, top-level managers and owners of the companies were interviewed. The interviews took place over a five month period between January and May 2007. Finally, the ranking of the critical success factors has been determined by using the Simple Multi Attribute Rating Technique (SMART). Based on the results, business management, financial conditions and owner/manager characteristics were determined as the most important factors to company success.

Keywords: Company success, construction, organization, success factors.

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Authors: G. R. Boroun, R. Harami

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Using form factors of the proton and the neutron for different of Q2, bag radius of the proton and the neutron can be obtained based on bag models. Then using static bag radius, magnetic moments of the proton and the neutron can be obtained and compared with other results.

Keywords: MIT bag model, proton and neutron, magnetic moment.

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Authors: Mariam Vardiashvili

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The economic value of the asset impairment process is quite large. Impairment reflects the reduction of future economic benefits or service potentials itemized in the asset. The assets owned by public sector entities bring economic benefits or are used for delivery of the free-of-charge services. Consequently, they are classified as cash-generating and non-cash-generating assets. IPSAS 21 - Impairment of non-cash-generating assets, and IPSAS 26 - Impairment of cash-generating assets, have been designed considering this specificity.  When measuring impairment of assets, it is important to select the relevant methods. For measurement of the impaired Non-Cash-Generating Assets, IPSAS 21 recommends three methods: Depreciated Replacement Cost Approach, Restoration Cost Approach, and  Service Units Approach. Impairment of Value in Use of Cash-Generating Assets (according to IPSAS 26) is measured by discounted value of the money sources to be received in future. Value in use of the cash-generating asserts (as per IPSAS 26) is measured by the discounted value of the money sources to be received in the future. The article provides classification of the assets in the public sector  as non-cash-generating assets and cash-generating assets and, deals also with the factors which should be considered when evaluating  impairment of assets. An essence of impairment of the non-financial assets and the methods of measurement thereof evaluation are formulated according to IPSAS 21 and IPSAS 26. The main emphasis is put on different methods of measurement of the value in use of the impaired Cash-Generating Assets and Non-Cash-Generation Assets and the methods of their selection. The traditional and the expected cash flow approaches for calculation of the discounted value are reviewed. The article also discusses the issues of recognition of impairment loss and its reflection in the financial reporting. The article concludes that despite a functional purpose of the impaired asset, whichever method is used for measuring the asset, presentation of realistic information regarding the value of the assets should be ensured in the financial reporting. In the theoretical development of the issue, the methods of scientific abstraction, analysis and synthesis were used. The research was carried out with a systemic approach. The research process uses international standards of accounting, theoretical researches and publications of Georgian and foreign scientists.

Keywords: Non-cash-generating assets, cash-generating assets, recoverable value, recoverable service amount, value in use.

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Authors: Avellino I. Mondlane, Karin Hansson, Oliver Popov

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This paper discusses the application of extreme events distribution taking the Limpopo River Basin at Xai-Xai station, in Mozambique, as a case analysis. We analyze the extreme value concepts, namely Gumbel, Fréchet, Weibull and Generalized Extreme Value Distributions and then extrapolate the original data to 1000, 5000 and 10000 figures for further simulations and we compare their outcomes based on these three main distributions.

Keywords: Catastrophes, extreme event, disasters, mathematical models, simulation.

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Authors: Danielle Sandler dos Passos, Helder Coelho, Flávia Mori Sarti

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Analysing the world banking sector, we realize that traditional risk measurement methodologies no longer reflect the actual scenario with uncertainty and leave out events that can change the dynamics of markets. Considering this, regulators and financial institutions began to search more realistic models. The aim is to include external influences and interdependencies between agents, to describe and measure the operationalization of these complex systems and their risks in a more coherent and credible way. Within this context, X-Events are more frequent than assumed and, with uncertainties and constant changes, the concept of antifragility starts to gain great prominence in comparison to others methodologies of risk management. It is very useful to analyse whether a system succumbs (fragile), resists (robust) or gets benefits (antifragile) from disorder and stress. Thus, this work proposes the creation of the Banking Antifragility Index (BAI), which is based on the calculation of a triangular fuzzy number – to "quantify" qualitative criteria linked to antifragility.

Keywords: Complex adaptive systems, X-events, risk management, antifragility, banking antifragility index, triangular fuzzy number.

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Authors: Mohamed S. Sasi, Adel M. Mlitan, Abdulfattah M. Alkherraz

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This research project aims to investigate difference in relative rates concerning phosphoryl transfer relevant to biological catalysis of DNA and RNA in the pH-independent reactions. Activated Models of DNA and RNA for alkyl-aryl phosphate diesters (with 4-nitrophenyl as a good leaving group) have successfully been prepared to gather kinetic parameters. Eyring plots for the pH– independent hydrolysis of 1 and 2 were established at different temperatures in the range 100–160 °C. These measurements have been used to provide a better estimate for the difference in relative rates between the reactivity of DNA and RNA cleavage. Eyring plot gave an extrapolated rate of kH2O = 1 × 10-10 s -1 for 1 (RNA model) and 2 (DNA model) at 25°C. Comparing the reactivity of RNA model and DNA model shows that the difference in relative rates in the pH-independent reactions is surprisingly very similar at 25°. This allows us to obtain chemical insights into how biological catalysts such as enzymes may have evolved to perform their current functions.

Keywords: DNA & RNA Models, Relative Rates, Reactivity.

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Authors: Khine Phyu, Aung Myint Aye

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This paper presents results of measurements campaign carried out at a carrier frequency of 24GHz with the help of TPLINK router in indoor line-of-sight (LOS) scenarios. Firstly, the radio wave propagation strategies are analyzed in some rooms with router of point to point Ad hoc network. Then floor attenuation is defined for 3 floors in experimental region. The free space model and dual slope models are modified by considering the influence of corridor conditions on each floor. Using these models, indoor signal attenuation can be estimated in modeling of indoor radio wave propagation. These results and modified models can also be used in planning the networks of future personal communications services.

Keywords: radio wave signal analyzing, LOS radio wavepropagation, indoor radio wave propagation, free space model, tworay model and indoor attenuation.

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Authors: R. S. Quintal, J. L. Tesch Santos, M. D. Davis, E. C. de Santana, M. de F. Bandeira dos Santos

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The objective is to identify the contributions from the introduction of the computerized system deal within the Accounting Department of Brazilian Navy Financial Directorship and its possible effects on the budgetary and financial harvest of Brazilian Navy. The relevance lies in the fact that the management process is responsible for the continuous improvement of organizational performance through higher levels of quality in their activities. Improvements in organizational processes have direct effects on crops cost, quality, reliability, flexibility and speed. The method of study of this research is the case study. The choice of case study attended, among other demands, a need for greater flexibility to study processes related to a computerized system. The sources of evidence were used literature, documentary and direct observation. Direct observation was made by monitoring the implementation of the computerized system in the Division of Management Analysis. The main findings of the study point to the fact that the computerized system may contribute significantly to the standardization of information. There was improvement of internal processes in the division of management analysis, made possible the consolidation of a standard management and performance analysis that contribute to global homogeneity in the treatment of information essential to the process of decision making. This study has limitations related to the fact the search result be subject exclusively to the case studied, and it is impossible to generalize to other organs of government.

Keywords: Process Management, Management Control, Business Intelligence.

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Authors: Costin Pribeanu

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The model-based approach to user interface design relies on developing separate models that are capturing various aspects about users, tasks, application domain, presentation and dialog representations. This paper presents a task modeling approach for user interface design and aims at exploring the mappings between task, domain and presentation models. The basic idea of our approach is to identify typical configurations in task and domain models and to investigate how they relate each other. A special emphasis is put on application-specific functions and mappings between domain objects and operational task structures. In this respect, we will distinguish between three layers in the task decomposition: a functional layer, a planning layer, and an operational layer.

Keywords: task modeling, user interface design, unit tasks, basic tasks, operational task model

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Authors: M. A. S. Fahim, J. Sužiedelytė Visockienė

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With the growing concern over air pollution (AP), it is clear that this has gained more prominence than ever before. The level of consciousness has increased and a sense of knowledge now has to be forwarded as a duty by those enlightened enough to disseminate it to others. This realization often comes after an understanding of how poor air quality indices (AQI) damage human health. The study focuses on assessing air pollution prediction models specifically for Lithuania, addressing a substantial need for empirical research within the region. Concentrating on Vilnius, it specifically examines particulate matter concentrations 10 micrometers or less in diameter (PM10). Utilizing Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Regression Tree Ensemble, and Regression Tree methodologies, predictive forecasting models are validated and tested using hourly data from January 2020 to December 2022. The study explores the classification of AP data into anthropogenic and natural sources, the impact of AP on human health, and its connection to cardiovascular diseases. The study revealed varying levels of accuracy among the models, with GPR achieving the highest accuracy, indicated by an RMSE of 4.14 in validation and 3.89 in testing.

Keywords: Air pollution, anthropogenic and natural sources, machine learning, Gaussian process regression, tree ensemble, forecasting models, particulate matter.

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Authors: M. O. Oke, T. S. Workneh

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Drying behavior of blanched sweet potato in a cabinet dryer using different five air temperatures (40-80°C) and ten sweet potato varieties sliced to 5mm thickness were investigated. The drying data were fitted to eight models. The Modified Henderson and Pabis model gave the best fit to the experimental moisture ratio data obtained during the drying of all the varieties while Newton (Lewis) and Wang and Singh models gave the least fit. The values of Deff obtained for Bophelo variety (1.27 x 10-9 to 1.77 x 10-9 m2/s) was the least while that of S191 (1.93 x 10-9 to 2.47 x 10-9 m2/s) was the highest which indicates that moisture diffusivity in sweet potato is affected by the genetic factor. Activation energy values ranged from 0.27-6.54 kJ/mol. The lower activation energy indicates that drying of sweet potato slices requires less energy and is hence a cost and energy saving method. The drying behavior of blanched sweet potato was investigated in a cabinet dryer. Drying time decreased considerably with increase in hot air temperature. Out of the eight models fitted, the Modified Henderson and Pabis model gave the best fit to the experimental moisture ratio data on all the varieties while Newton, Wang and Singh models gave the least. The lower activation energy (0.27 - 6.54 kJ/mol) obtained indicates that drying of sweet potato slices requires less energy and is hence a cost and energy saving method.

Keywords: Sweet Potato Slice, Drying Models, Moisture Ratio, Moisture Diffusivity, Activation Energy.

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Authors: Shaya Alshahrani

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Perceived risks play a major role in consumer intentions, behaviors, attitudes, and decisions about online shopping in the KSA. This paper investigates the influence of six perceived risk dimensions on Saudi consumers: product risk, information risk, financial risk, privacy and security risk, delivery risk, and terms and conditions risk empirically. To ensure the success of this study, a random survey was distributed to reflect the consumers’ perceived risk and to enable the generalization of the results. Data were collected from 323 respondents in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA): 50 who had never shopped online and 273 who had done so. The results indicated that all six risks influenced the respondents’ perceptions of online shopping. The non-online shoppers perceived financial and delivery risks as the most significant barriers to online shopping. This was followed closely by performance, information, and privacy and security risks. Terms and conditions were perceived as less significant. The online consumers considered delivery and performance risks to be the most significant influences on internet shopping. This was followed closely by information and terms and conditions. Financial and privacy and security risks were perceived as less significant. This paper argues that introducing adequate legal solutions to addressing related problems arising from this study is an urgent need. This may enhance consumer trust in the KSA online market, increase consumers’ intentions regarding online shopping, and improve consumer protection.

Keywords: Perceived risk, consumer protection, online shopping, Saudi Arabia, online contracts, e-commerce.

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Authors: Konstantinos Perifanos, Eirini Florou, Dionysis Goutsos

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This paper presents and benchmarks a number of end-to-end Deep Learning based models for metaphor detection in Greek. We combine Convolutional Neural Networks and Recurrent Neural Networks with representation learning to bear on the metaphor detection problem for the Greek language. The models presented achieve exceptional accuracy scores, significantly improving the previous state-of-the-art results, which had already achieved accuracy 0.82. Furthermore, no special preprocessing, feature engineering or linguistic knowledge is used in this work. The methods presented achieve accuracy of 0.92 and F-score 0.92 with Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and bidirectional Long Short Term Memory networks (LSTMs). Comparable results of 0.91 accuracy and 0.91 F-score are also achieved with bidirectional Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) and Convolutional Recurrent Neural Nets (CRNNs). The models are trained and evaluated only on the basis of training tuples, the related sentences and their labels. The outcome is a state-of-the-art collection of metaphor detection models, trained on limited labelled resources, which can be extended to other languages and similar tasks.

Keywords: Metaphor detection, deep learning, representation learning, embeddings.

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Authors: Iliana Marinova, Valentin Mateev

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For investigations of electromagnetic field distributions in biological structures by Finite Element Method (FEM), a method for automatic 3D model building of human anatomical objects is developed. Models are made by meshed structures and specific electromagnetic material properties for each tissue type. Mesh is built according to specific FEM criteria for achieving good solution accuracy. Several FEM models of anatomical objects are built. Formulation using magnetic vector potential and scalar electric potential (A-V, A) is used for modeling of electromagnetic fields in human tissue objects. The developed models are suitable for investigations of electromagnetic field distributions in human tissues exposed in external fields during magnetic stimulation, defibrillation, impedance tomography etc.

Keywords: electromagnetic field, finite element method, humantissue.

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Authors: A. Rouili

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In the present paper the results of a numerical study are presented, numerical models were developed to simulate the behaviour of vertical massive dikes. The proposed models were developed according to the geometry, boundary conditions, loading conditions and initial conditions of a physical model taken as reference. The results obtained were compared to the experimental data. As far as the overall behaviour, the displacements and the failure mechanisms of the dikes is concerned, the numerical results were in good agreement with the experimental results, which clearly indicates a good quality of numerical modelling. The validated numerical models were used in a parametric study were the displacements and failure mechanisms were fully investigated. Out of the results obtained, some conclusions and recommendations related to the design of massive dikes are proposed.

Keywords: Water conservation, dikes, risk assessment and numerical modelling.

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Authors: Donglan Zha, Jiansong Si

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Because of its flexibility, CES attracts much interest in economic growth and programming models, and the macroeconomics or micro-macro models. This paper focuses on the development, estimating methods of CES production function considering energy as an input. We leave for future research work of relaxing the assumption of constant returns to scale, the introduction of potential input factors, and the generalization method of the optimal nested form of multi-factor production functions.

Keywords: Bias of technical change, CES production function, elasticity of substitution, energy input.

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Authors: Mingren Shi, Michael Renton

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There is a world-wide need for the development of sustainable management strategies to control pest infestation and the development of phosphine (PH3) resistance in lesser grain borer (Rhyzopertha dominica). Computer simulation models can provide a relatively fast, safe and inexpensive way to weigh the merits of various management options. However, the usefulness of simulation models relies on the accurate estimation of important model parameters, such as mortality. Concentration and time of exposure are both important in determining mortality in response to a toxic agent. Recent research indicated the existence of two resistance phenotypes in R. dominica in Australia, weak and strong, and revealed that the presence of resistance alleles at two loci confers strong resistance, thus motivating the construction of a two-locus model of resistance. Experimental data sets on purified pest strains, each corresponding to a single genotype of our two-locus model, were also available. Hence it became possible to explicitly include mortalities of the different genotypes in the model. In this paper we described how we used two generalized linear models (GLM), probit and logistic models, to fit the available experimental data sets. We used a direct algebraic approach generalized inverse matrix technique, rather than the traditional maximum likelihood estimation, to estimate the model parameters. The results show that both probit and logistic models fit the data sets well but the former is much better in terms of small least squares (numerical) errors. Meanwhile, the generalized inverse matrix technique achieved similar accuracy results to those from the maximum likelihood estimation, but is less time consuming and computationally demanding.

Keywords: mortality estimation, probit models, logistic model, generalized inverse matrix approach, pest control simulation

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Authors: Ichiro Mukai

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The purpose of this study is to investigate whether firms applying International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), provide high-quality and comparable earnings information that is useful for decision making of information users relative to firms applying local Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). Focus is placed on the earnings quality of listed firms in several developed countries: Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US). Except for Japan and the US, the adoption of IFRS is mandatory for listed firms in these countries. In Japan, the application of IFRS is allowed for specific listed firms. In the US, the foreign firms listed on the US securities market are permitted to apply IFRS but the listed domestic firms are prohibited from doing so. In this paper, the differences in earnings quality are compared between firms applying local GAAP and those applying IFRS in each country and industry category, and the reasons of differences in earnings quality are analyzed using various factors. The results show that, although the earnings quality of firms applying IFRS is higher than that of firms applying local GAAP, this varies with country and industry category. Thus, even if a single set of global accounting standards is used for all listed firms worldwide, it is difficult to establish comparability of financial information among global firms. These findings imply that various circumstances surrounding firms, industries, and countries etc. influence business operations and affect the differences in earnings quality.

Keywords: Accruals, earnings quality, IFRS, information comparability.

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Authors: Jamuna Konda, Umamaheswara Reddy Karumuri, Sriramya Muthugi, Varun Pishati, Ravi Shakya,

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This paper investigates the challenges involved in mathematical modeling of plant simulation models ensuring the performance of the plant models much closer to the real time physical model. The paper includes the analysis performed and investigation on different methods of modeling, design and development for plant model. Issues which impact the design time, model accuracy as real time model, tool dependence are analyzed. The real time hardware plant would be a combination of multiple physical models. It is more challenging to test the complete system with all possible test scenarios. There are possibilities of failure or damage of the system due to any unwanted test execution on real time.

Keywords: Model Based Design, MATLAB, Simulink, Stateflow, plant model, real time model, real-time workshop, target language compiler.

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Authors: Julio Manuel de Luis Ruiz, Javier Sedano Cibrián, Rubén Pérez Álvarez, Raúl Pereda García, Felipe Piña García

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Nowadays it is common to resort to aerial photography to carry out the prospection and/or exploration of archaeological sites. In recent years, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have been applied as the vehicles that carry the sensor. This implies certain advantages, such as the possibility of including low-cost sensors, given that these vehicles can carry the sensor at relatively low altitudes. Due to this, low-cost dual sensors have recently begun to be used. This new equipment can collaborate with classic Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) in the exploration of archaeological sites, but this entails the need for a methodological setting to optimize the acquisition, processing and exploitation of the information provided by low-cost dual sensors. This research focuses on the design of an appropriate workflow to obtain 3D models with low-cost sensors carried on UAVs, both in the RGB and thermal domains. All the foregoing has been applied to the archaeological site of Juliobriga, located in Cantabria (Spain). To this end, a flight with this type of sensors has been planned, developed and analyzed. It has been applied to the archaeological site of Juliobriga (Cantabria, Spain). A strong dependence of the thermal sensor on the GSD, and the capability of this technique to interpret underground materials. This research allows to state that the thermal nature of the site does not provide main information about the site itself, but with combination with other types of information, such as the DEM, the typology of materials, etc., can produce very positive results with respect to the exploration and knowledge of the site. 

Keywords: process optimization, RGB models, thermal models, UAV, workflow

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Authors: Armin Rahimi

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The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has been a very successful project in determining math redistribution within the Earth system. Large deformations caused by earthquakes are in the high frequency band. Unfortunately, GRACE is only capable to provide reliable estimate at the low-to-medium frequency band for the gravitational changes. In this study, we computed the gravity changes after the 2012 Mw8.6 Indian Ocean earthquake off-Sumatra using the GRACE Level-2 monthly spherical harmonic (SH) solutions released by the University of Texas Center for Space Research (UTCSR). Moreover, we calculated gravity changes using different fault models derived from teleseismic data. The model predictions showed non-negligible discrepancies in gravity changes. However, after removing high-frequency signals, using Gaussian filtering 350 km commensurable GRACE spatial resolution, the discrepancies vanished, and the spatial patterns of total gravity changes predicted from all slip models became similar at the spatial resolution attainable by GRACE observations, and predicted-gravity changes were consistent with the GRACE-detected gravity changes. Nevertheless, the fault models, in which give different slip amplitudes, proportionally lead to different amplitude in the predicted gravity changes.

Keywords: Undersea earthquake, GRACE observation, gravity change, dislocation model, slip distribution.

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Authors: D. A. Farinde

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One of the most significant threats to the economy of a nation is the bankruptcy of its banks. This study evaluates the susceptibility of Nigerian banks to failure with a view to identifying ratios and financial data that are sensitive to solvency of the bank. Further, a predictive model is generated to guide all stakeholders in the industry. Thirty quoted banks that had published Annual Reports for the year preceding the consolidation i.e. year 2004 were selected. They were examined for distress using the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network Analysis. The model was used to analyze further reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria using published Annual Reports of twenty quoted banks for the year 2008 and 2011. The model can thus be used for future prediction of failure in the Nigerian banking system.

Keywords: Bank, Bankruptcy, Financial Ratios, Neural Network, Multilayer Perceptron, Predictive Model

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Authors: Margaret F. Shipley

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Fuzzy logic can be used when knowledge is incomplete or when ambiguity of data exists. The purpose of this paper is to propose a proactive fuzzy set- based model for reacting to the risk inherent in investment activities relative to a complete view of portfolio management. Fuzzy rules are given where, depending on the antecedents, the portfolio size may be slightly or significantly decreased or increased. The decision maker considers acceptable bounds on the proportion of acceptable risk and return. The Fuzzy Controller model allows learning to be achieved as 1) the firing strength of each rule is measured, 2) fuzzy output allows rules to be updated, and 3) new actions are recommended as the system continues to loop. An extension is given to the fuzzy controller that evaluates potential financial loss before adjusting the portfolio. An application is presented that illustrates the algorithm and extension developed in the paper.

Keywords: Portfolio Management, Financial Market Monitoring, Fuzzy Controller, Fuzzy Logic,

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Authors: Mehdi Kheradmand, Mehdi Azhdary Moghaddam, Abdolreza Zahiri, Khalil Ghorbani

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In modeling phenomena, the presence of local conditions may cause the use of a general relation not to produce good results and thus fail to demonstrate local changes. If possible, identifying homogenous limits and providing simple linear relations for each of these limits will increase the accuracy of models. Accordingly, the models are divided into simpler and smaller problems to solve complicated problems, and the obtained answers will be combined. This simple idea can be applied to decision tree models. For this aim, the input data values are divided into several sub-intervals or sub-regions, and an appropriate model is extracted for an appropriate model or equation. This research proposes the M5 decision tree method as a solution to accurately compute the flow discharge in meandering compound channels.

Keywords: Stage-discharge relationship, decision tree, M5 decision tree model, meandering compound channels.

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Authors: Peyman Shadman Heidari, Roohollah Ahmady Jazany, Mahmood Reza Mehran, Pouya Shadman Heidari, Mohammad khorasani

Abstract:

Modeling of Panel Zone (PZ) seismic behavior, because of its role in overall ductility and lateral stiffness of steel moment frames, has been considered a challenge for years. There are some studies regarding the effects of different doubler plates thicknesses and geometric properties of PZ on its seismic behavior. However, there is not much investigation on the effects of number of provided continuity plates in case of presence of one triangular haunch, two triangular haunches and rectangular haunch (T shape haunches) for exterior columns. In this research first detailed finite element models of 12tested connection of SAC joint venture were created and analyzed then obtained cyclic behavior backbone curves of these models besides other FE models for similar tests were used for neural network training. Then seismic behavior of these data is categorized according to continuity plate-s arrangements and differences in type of haunches. PZ with one-sided haunches have little plastic rotation. As the number of continuity plates increases due to presence of two triangular haunches (four continuity plate), there will be no plastic rotation, in other words PZ behaves in its elastic range. In the case of rectangular haunch, PZ show more plastic rotation in comparison with one-sided triangular haunch and especially double-sided triangular haunches. Moreover, the models that will be presented in case of triangular one-sided and double- sided haunches and rectangular haunches as a result of this study seem to have a proper estimation of PZ seismic behavior.

Keywords: Continuity plate, FE models, Neural network, Panel zone, Plastic rotation, Rectangular haunch, Seismic behavior

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