Search results for: Risk Mitigation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1167

Search results for: Risk Mitigation

717 Behavioral Study of TCSC Device – A MATLAB/Simulink Implementation

Authors: S. Meikandasivam, Rajesh Kumar Nema, Shailendra Kumar Jain

Abstract:

A basic conceptual study of TCSC device on Simulink is a teaching aid and helps in understanding the rudiments of the topic. This paper thus stems out from basics of TCSC device and analyzes the impedance characteristics and associated single & multi resonance conditions. The Impedance characteristics curve is drawn for different values of inductance in MATLAB using M-files. The study is also helpful in estimating the appropriate inductance and capacitance values which have influence on multi resonance point in TCSC device. The capacitor voltage, line current, thyristor current and capacitor current waveforms are discussed briefly as simulation results. Simulink model of TCSC device is given and corresponding waveforms are analyzed. The subsidiary topics e.g. power oscillation damping, SSR mitigation and transient stability is also brought out.

Keywords: TCSC device, Impedance characteristics, Resonance point, Simulink model

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716 H.264 Video Privacy Protection Method Using Regions of Interest Encryption

Authors: Taekyun Doo, Cheongmin Ji, Manpyo Hong

Abstract:

Like a closed-circuit television (CCTV), video surveillance system is widely placed for gathering video from unspecified people to prevent crime, surveillance, or many other purposes. However, abuse of CCTV brings about concerns of personal privacy invasions. In this paper, we propose an encryption method to protect personal privacy system in H.264 compressed video bitstream with encrypting only regions of interest (ROI). There is no need to change the existing video surveillance system. In addition, encrypting ROI in compressed video bitstream is a challenging work due to spatial and temporal drift errors. For this reason, we propose a novel drift mitigation method when ROI is encrypted. The proposed method was implemented by using JM reference software based on the H.264 compressed videos, and experimental results show the verification of our proposed methods and its effectiveness.

Keywords: H.264/AVC, video encryption, privacy protection, post compression, region of interest.

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715 Fuzzy Logic Controlled Shunt Active Power Filter for Three-phase Four-wire Systems with Balanced and Unbalanced Loads

Authors: Ahmed A. Helal, Nahla E. Zakzouk, Yasser G. Desouky

Abstract:

This paper presents a fuzzy logic controlled shunt active power filter used to compensate for harmonic distortion in three-phase four-wire systems. The shunt active filter employs a simple method for the calculation of the reference compensation current based of Fast Fourier Transform. This presented filter is able to operate in both balanced and unbalanced load conditions. A fuzzy logic based current controller strategy is used to regulate the filter current and hence ensure harmonic free supply current. The validity of the presented approach in harmonic mitigation is verified via simulation results of the proposed test system under different loading conditions.

Keywords: Active power filters, Fuzzy logic controller, Power quality

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714 Predicting the Adsorptive Capacities of Biosolid as a Barrier in Soil to Remove Industrial Contaminants

Authors: Hakim Aguedal, Hafida Hentit, Abdallah Aziz, Djillali Rida Merouani, Abdelkader Iddou

Abstract:

The major environmental risk of soil pollution is the contamination of groundwater by infiltration of organic and inorganic pollutants which can cause a serious menace. To prevent this risk and to protect the groundwater, we proceeded in this study to test the reliability of a biosolid as barrier to prevent the migration of very dangerous pollutants as ‘Cadmium’ through the different soil layers. In this study, we tried to highlight the effect of several parameters such as: turbidity (different cycle of Hydration/Dehydration), rainfall, effect of initial Cd(II) concentration and the type of soil. These parameters allow us to find the most effective manner to integrate this barrier in the soil. From the results obtained, we found a significant effect of the barrier. Indeed, the recorded passing quantities are lowest for the highest rainfall; we noted also that the barrier has a better affinity towards higher concentrations; the most retained amounts of cadmium has been in the top layer of the two types of soil tested, while the lowest amounts of cadmium are recorded in the bottom layers of soils.

Keywords: Adsorption of Cadmium, Barrier, Groundwater Pollution, Protection.

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713 Improving Location Management in Mobile IPv4 Networks

Authors: Haidar Safa, Hassan Artail, Ahmad Mehio, Hicham Zahr, Ziad Matragi

Abstract:

The Mobile IP Standard has been developed to support mobility over the Internet. This standard contains several drawbacks as in the cases where packets are routed via sub-optimal paths and significant amount of signaling messages is generated due to the home registration procedure which keeps the network aware of the current location of the mobile nodes. Recently, a dynamic hierarchical mobility management strategy for mobile IP networks (DHMIP) has been proposed to reduce home registrations costs. However, this strategy induces a packet delivery delay and increases the risk of packet loss. In this paper, we propose an enhanced version of the dynamic hierarchical strategy that reduces the packet delivery delay and minimizes the risk of packet loss. Preliminary results obtained from simulations are promising. They show that the enhanced version outperforms the original dynamic hierarchical mobility management strategy version.

Keywords: Location management, Mobile IP (MIP), Home Agent, Foreign Agent.

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712 Risk Factors in a Road Construction Site

Authors: V.R Gannapathy, S.K Subramaniam, A.B Mohamad Diah, M.K Suaidi, A.H Hamidon

Abstract:

The picture of a perfect road construction site is the one that utilizes conventional vertical road signs and a flagman to optimize the traffic flow with minimum hazel to the public. Former research has been carried out by Department of Occupational Safety and Health (DOSH) and Ministry of Works to further enhance smoothness in traffic operations and particularly in safety issues within work zones. This paper highlights on hazardous zones in a certain road construction or road maintenance site. Most cases show that the flagman falls into high risk of fatal accidents within work zone. Various measures have been taken by both the authorities and contractors to overcome such miseries, yet it-s impossible to eliminate the usage of a flagman since it is considered the best practice. With the implementation of new technologies in automating the traffic flow in road construction site, it is possible to eliminate the usage of a flagman. The intelligent traffic light system is designed to solve problems which contribute hazardous at road construction site and to be inline with the road safety regulation which is taken into granted.

Keywords: Intelligent Traffic Light, Critical Zones, Safety Regulation, Flagman

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711 Radon-222 Concentration and Potential Risk to Workers of Al-Jalamid Phosphate Mines, North Province, Saudi Arabia

Authors: El-Said. I. Shabana, Mohammad S. Tayeb, Maher M. T. Qutub, Abdulraheem A. Kinsara

Abstract:

Usually, phosphate deposits contain 238U and 232Th in addition to their decay products. Due to their different pathways in the environment, the 238U/232Th activity concentration ratio usually found to be greater than unity in phosphate sediments. The presence of these radionuclides creates a potential need to control exposure of workers in the mining and processing activities of the phosphate minerals in accordance with IAEA safety standards. The greatest dose to workers comes from exposure to radon, especially 222Rn from the uranium series, and has to be controlled. In this regard, radon (222Rn) was measured in the atmosphere (indoor and outdoor) of Al-Jalamid phosphate-mines working area using a portable radon-measurement instrument RAD7, in a purpose of radiation protection. Radon was measured in 61 sites inside the open phosphate mines, the phosphate upgrading facility (offices and rooms of the workers, and in some open-air sites) and in the dwellings of the workers residence-village that lies at about 3 km from the mines working area. The obtained results indicated that the average indoor radon concentration was about 48.4 Bq/m3. Inside the upgrading facility, the average outdoor concentrations were 10.8 and 9.7 Bq/m3 in the concentrate piles and crushing areas, respectively. It was 12.3 Bq/m3 in the atmosphere of the open mines. These values are comparable with the global average values. Based on the average values, the annual effective dose due to radon inhalation was calculated and risk estimates have been done. The average annual effective dose to workers due to the radon inhalation was estimated by 1.32 mSv. The potential excess risk of lung cancer mortality that could be attributed to radon, when considering the lifetime exposure, was estimated by 53.0x10-4. The results have been discussed in detail.

Keywords: Dosimetry, environmental monitoring, phosphate deposits, radiation protection, radon-22.

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710 Dynamic Response of Fixed-base Core-tube and Base-isolated Frame Structure Subjected to Strong Earthquake Motions

Authors: Z.D. Yang, E.S.S. Lam

Abstract:

Considering the merits and limitations of energy dissipation system, seismic isolation system and suspension system, a new earthquake resistant system is proposed and is demonstrated numerically through a frame-core structure. Base isolators and story isolators are installed in the proposed system. The former “isolates" the frame from the foundation and the latter “separates" the frame from the center core. Equations of motion are formulated to study the response of the proposed structural system to strong earthquake motion. As compared with the fixed-base building system, the proposed structural system shows substantial reduction on structural response.

Keywords: Base Isolator, Core-tube, Isolated frame, Seismic Mitigation, Story Isolator

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709 The Association of Matrix Metalloproteinase-3 Gene -1612 5A/6A Polymorphism with Susceptibility to Coronary Artery Stenosis in an Iranian Population

Authors: M. Seifi, S. Fallah, M. Firoozrai

Abstract:

Matrix metalloproteinase-3 (MMP3) is key member of the MMP family, and is known to be present in coronary atherosclerotic. Several studies have demonstrated that MMP-3 5A/6A polymorphism modify each transcriptional activity in allele specific manner. We hypothesized that this polymorphism may play a role as risk factor for development of coronary stenosis. The aim of our study was to estimate MMP-3 (5A/6A) gene polymorphism on interindividual variability in risk for coronary stenosis in an Iranian population.DNA was extracted from white blood cells and genotypes were obtained from coronary stenosis cases (n=95) and controls (n=100) by PCR (polymerase chain reaction) and restriction fragment length polymorphism techniques. Significant differences between cases and controls were observed for MMP3 genotype frequencies (X2=199.305, p< 0.001); the 6A allele was less frequently seen in the control group, compared to the disease group (85.79 vs. 78%, 6A/6A+5A/6A vs. 5A/5A, P≤0.001). These data imply the involvement of -1612 5A/6A polymorphism in coronary stenosis, and suggest that probably the 6A/6A MMP-3 genotype is a genetic susceptibility factor for coronary stenosis.

Keywords: Coronary artery stenosis, matrixmetalloproteinase-3, polymorphism, polymerase chain reaction.

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708 Comparison of Inter Cell Interference Coordination Approaches

Authors: Selma Sbit, Mohamed Bechir Dadi, Belgacem Chibani Rhaimi

Abstract:

This work aims to compare various techniques used in order to mitigate Inter-Cell Interference (ICI) in Long Term Evolution (LTE) and LTE-Advanced systems. For that, we will evaluate the performance of each one. In mobile communication networks, systems are limited by ICI particularly caused by deployment of small cells in conventional cell’s implementation. Therefore, various mitigation techniques, named Inter-Cell Interference Coordination techniques (ICIC), enhanced Inter-Cell Interference Coordination (eICIC) techniques and Coordinated Multi-Point transmission and reception (CoMP) are proposed. This paper presents a comparative study of these strategies. It can be concluded that CoMP techniques can ameliorate SINR and capacity system compared to ICIC and eICIC. In fact, SINR value reaches 15 dB for a distance of 0.5 km between user equipment and servant base station if we use CoMP technology whereas it cannot exceed 12 dB and 9 dB for eICIC and ICIC approaches respectively as reflected in simulations.

Keywords: 4th generation, interference, coordination, ICIC.

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707 Consensus on Climate Change Adaptation among Government and Populace

Authors: Tsung-Hsien Yu, Ya-Hsuan Chou, Ming-Wei Chen, Chi-Ming Chen, Yi-Hsuan Li

Abstract:

Observations and long-term trends indicate that climate change impacts would be significant and affects Taiwan directly and severely. Taiwan engages not only in mitigation, but also in adaptation. However, there are cognitive gaps on adaptation between government and populace. Besides, a vision of zero-carbon and renewable energy 100% will be adopted in future. Therefore, the objectives of this article are to 1) hold a National Forum for knowing differences between the strategies of zero-carbon and renewable energy 100% and cognitions of general populace, and 2) plan a clear roadmap for the vision, strategy, and measures. In this forum, we set 5 group topics, 5 presumed themes, and issues mentioned review for concluding the critical issues. Finally, there are 4 strategies and 14 critical issues which correlate with the vision and strategy of government and the cognition of the general populace.

Keywords: Cognitive gap, world café, renewable energy, zero-carbon.

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706 Fuzzy Numbers and MCDM Methods for Portfolio Optimization

Authors: Thi T. Nguyen, Lee N. Gordon-Brown

Abstract:

A new deployment of the multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques: the Simple Additive Weighting (SAW), and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) for portfolio allocation, is demonstrated in this paper. Rather than exclusive reference to mean and variance as in the traditional mean-variance method, the criteria used in this demonstration are the first four moments of the portfolio distribution. Each asset is evaluated based on its marginal impacts to portfolio higher moments that are characterized by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Then centroid-based defuzzification is applied to convert fuzzy numbers to the crisp numbers by which SAW and TOPSIS can be deployed. Experimental results suggest the similar efficiency of these MCDM approaches to selecting dominant assets for an optimal portfolio under higher moments. The proposed approaches allow investors flexibly adjust their risk preferences regarding higher moments via different schemes adapting to various (from conservative to risky) kinds of investors. The other significant advantage is that, compared to the mean-variance analysis, the portfolio weights obtained by SAW and TOPSIS are consistently well-diversified.

Keywords: Fuzzy numbers, SAW, TOPSIS, portfolio optimization, higher moments, risk management.

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705 The Significance of Cultural Risks for Western Consultants Executing Gulf Cooperation Council Megaprojects

Authors: Alan Walsh, Peter Walker

Abstract:

Differences in commercial, professional and personal cultural traditions between western consultants and project sponsors in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region are potentially significant in the workplace, and this can impact on project outcomes. These cultural differences can, for example, result in conflict amongst senior managers, which can negatively impact the megaproject. New entrants to the GCC often experience ‘culture shock’ as they attempt to integrate into their unfamiliar environments. Megaprojects are unique ventures with individual project characteristics, which need to be considered when managing their associated risks. Megaproject research to date has mostly ignored the significance of the absence of cultural congruence in the GCC, which is surprising considering that there are large volumes of megaprojects in various stages of construction in the GCC. An initial step to dealing with cultural issues is to acknowledge culture as a significant risk factor (SRF). This paper seeks to understand the criticality for western consultants to address these risks. It considers the cultural barriers that exist between GCC sponsors and western consultants and examines the cultural distance between the key actors. Initial findings suggest the presence to a certain extent of ethnocentricity. Other cultural clashes arise out of a lack of appreciation of the customs, practices and traditions of ‘the Other’, such as the need for avoiding public humiliation and the hierarchal significance rankings. The concept and significance of cultural shock as part of the integration process for new arrivals are considered. Culture shock describes the state of anxiety and frustration resulting from the immersion in a culture distinctly different from one's own. There are potentially substantial project risks associated with underestimating the process of cultural integration. This paper examines two distinct but intertwined issues: the societal and professional culture differences associated with expatriate assignments. A case study examines the cultural congruences between GCC sponsors and American, British and German consultants, over a ten-year cycle. This provides indicators as to which nationalities encountered the most profound cultural issues and the nature of these. GCC megaprojects are typically intensive fast track demanding ventures, where consultant turnover is high. The study finds that building trust-filled relationships is key to successful project team integration and therefore, to successful megaproject execution. Findings indicate that both professional and social inclusion processes have steep learning curves. Traditional risk management practice is to approach any uncertainty in a structured way to mitigate the potential impact on project outcomes. This research highlights cultural risk as a significant factor in the management of GCC megaprojects. These risks arising from high staff turnover typically include loss of project knowledge, delays to the project, cost and disruption in replacing staff. This paper calls for cultural risk to be recognised as an SRF, as the first step to developing risk management strategies, and to reduce staff turnover for western consultants in GCC megaprojects.

Keywords: Western consultants in megaprojects, national culture impacts on GCC Megaprojects, significant risk factors in megaprojects, professional culture in megaprojects.

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704 Development of a Multi-Factorial Instrument for Accident Analysis Based on Systemic Methods

Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

Abstract:

The present research is built on three major pillars, commencing by making some considerations on accident investigation methods and pointing out both defining aspects and differences between linear and non-linear analysis. The traditional linear focus on accident analysis describes accidents as a sequence of events, while the latest systemic models outline interdependencies between different factors and define the processes evolution related to a specific (normal) situation. Linear and non-linear accident analysis methods have specific limitations, so the second point of interest is mirrored by the aim to discover the drawbacks of systemic models which becomes a starting point for developing new directions to identify risks or data closer to the cause of incidents/accidents. Since communication represents a critical issue in the interaction of human factor and has been proved to be the answer of the problems made by possible breakdowns in different communication procedures, from this focus point, on the third pylon a new error-modeling instrument suitable for risk assessment/accident analysis will be elaborated.

Keywords: Accident analysis, multi-factorial error modeling, risk, systemic methods.

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703 Recovery of Post-Consumer PET Bottles in a Composite Material Preparation

Authors: Rafenomananjara Tsinjo Nirina, Tomoo Sekito, Andrianaivoravelona Jaconnet Oliva

Abstract:

Manufacturing a composite material from post-consumer bottles is an interesting outlet since Madagascar is still facing the challenges of managing plastic waste on the one hand and appropriate waste treatment facilities are not yet developed on the other hand. New waste management options are needed to divert End-Of-Life (EOL) soft plastic wastes from landfills and incineration. Waste polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottles might be considered as a valuable resource and recovered into polymer concrete. The methodology is easy to implement and appropriate to the local context in Madagascar. This approach will contribute to the production of ecological building materials that might be profitable for the environment and the construction sector. This work aims to study the feasibility of using the post-consumer PET bottles as an alternative binding agent instead of the conventional Portland cement and water. Then, the mechanical and physical properties of the materials were evaluated.

Keywords: PET recycling, polymer concrete, ecological building materials, pollution mitigation.

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702 Coastal Ecological Sensitivity and Risk Assessment: A Case Study of Sea Level Change in Apodi River (Atlantic Ocean), Northeast Brazil

Authors: Mukesh Singh Boori, Venerando Eustáquio Amaro, Helenice Vital

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The present study has been carried out with a view to calculate the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) to know the high and low sensitive areas and area of inundation due to future SLR. Both conventional and remotely sensed data were used and analyzed through the modelling technique. Out of the total study area, 8.26% is very high risk, 14.21% high, 9.36% medium, 22.46% low and 7.35% in the very low vulnerable category, due to costal components. Results of the inundation analysis indicate that 225.2 km² and 397 km² of the land area will be submerged by flooding at 1m and 10m inundation levels. The most severely affected sectors are expected to be the residential, industrial and recreational areas. As this coast is planned for future coastal developmental activities, measures such as industrializations, building regulation, urban growth planning and agriculture, development of an integrated coastal zone management, strict enforcement of the Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) Act, monitoring of impacts and further research in this regard are recommended for the study area.

Keywords: Coastal planning, land use, satellite data, vulnerability.

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701 Risk Assessment of Particulate Matter (PM10) in Makkah, Saudi Arabia

Authors: Turki M. Habeebullah, Atef M. F. Mohammed, Essam A. Morsy

Abstract:

In recent decades, particulate matter (PM10) have received much attention due to its potential adverse health impact and the subsequent need to better control or regulate these pollutants. The aim of this paper is focused on study risk assessment of PM10 in four different districts (Shebikah, Masfalah, Aziziyah, Awali) in Makkah, Saudi Arabia during the period from 1 Ramadan 1434 AH - 27 Safar 1435 AH. Samples were collected by using Low Volume Sampler (LVS Low Volume Sampler) device and filtration method for estimating the total concentration of PM10. The study indicated that the mean PM10 concentrations were 254.6 (186.1 - 343.2) μg/m3 in Shebikah, 184.9 (145.6 - 271.4) μg/m3 in Masfalah, 162.4 (92.4-253.8) μg/m3 in Aziziyah, and 56.0 (44.5 - 119.8) μg/m3 in Awali. These values did not exceed the permissible limits in PME (340 μg/m3 as daily average). Furthermore, health assessment is carried out using AirQ2.2.3 model to estimate the number of hospital admissions due to respiratory diseases. The cumulative number of cases per 100,000 were 1534 (18-3050 case), which lower than that recorded in the United States, Malaysia. The concentration response coefficient was 0.49 (95% CI 0.05 - 0.70) per 10 μg/m3 increase of PM10.

Keywords: Air pollution, Respiratory diseases, AirQ2.2.3, Makkah.

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700 Lean Implementation: An Investigation in Successfully Adopting a Lean Philosophy

Authors: P. Ahern, D. Collery

Abstract:

The implementation of lean thinking in the manufacturing industry revolutionized the traditional approach to large-scale production through the process of identifying the waste in each task and putting in place mitigation measures to eliminate the waste in all its forms. The Irish construction industry, however, has been much slower to adopt the principles of lean, opting instead to stick with the traditional approach to construction project delivery which is inherently wasteful. Lean thinking holds the potential to revolutionize the construction industry in a similar manner to the adoption of lean manufacturing. Lean principles present opportunities for reduced project duration, reduced project cost, improved quality, and elimination of re-works and non-value-added activities. This research has been designed to accumulate research data through available literature, electronic surveys, and interviews. The results show an industry reluctant to accept change and an undefined path to successful lean construction implementation.

Keywords: Barriers, lean construction, lean implementation, lean manufacturing, lean philosophy.

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699 IS Flexibility Planning for IT/Business Strategy Alignment via Future Oriented POC Analysis

Authors: Masaru Furukawa, Shigeki Hirobayashi, Tadanobu Misawa

Abstract:

Nowadays, IT/Business strategy alignment is still a key topic of concern among managers worldwide. Change has always being considered the primary challenge affecting the strategy alignment. Planning for alignment in uncertain and dynamic changing environments is burdened with risk as organizations seek to understand how much flexibility to build in their management information system so as to maintain high levels of alignment. The literature review showed that there is a tight relationship between IT infrastructure flexibility and the strategy alignment with strategic information systems (SIS) planning serving as a moderator of this relationship, and that emphasized the needs for organizations to use SIS planning consistently and to monitor the relationship between IS flexibility and the alignment. This paper presents the procedure of SIS planning with IS flexibility renovation via future oriented analysis of POC (penalty of change) as a function of cost and time. Using this SIS planning and monitoring IS flexibility and the alignment during periods of increased change in dynamic and uncertain environments reduces the risk that could transform IT into an inhibitor rather than an enabler of change.

Keywords: IT/Business strategy alignment, strategic information systems (SIS) planning, IS flexibility, penalty of change (POC).

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698 Emergency Health Management and Student Hygiene at a South African University

Authors: Kudzai Ashley Tagwira, Michelle Marle Marais, Tracy Anne Ludwig, Rutendo Precious Chidziva, Mavis Nyaradzo Munodawafa, Wendy M. Wrench, Roman Tandlich

Abstract:

Risk of infectious disease outbreaks is related to the hygiene among the population. To assess the actual risks and modify the relevant emergency procedures if necessary, a hygiene survey was conducted among undergraduate students on the Rhodes University campus. Soap was available to 10.5% and only 26.8% of the study participants followed proper hygiene in relation to food consumption. This combination increases the risk of infectious disease outbreaks at the campus. Around 83.6% were willing to wash their hands if soap was provided. Procurement and availability of soap in undergraduate residences on campus should be improved, as the total cost is estimated at only 2000 USD per annum. Awareness campaigns about food-related hygiene and the need for regular handwashing with soap should be run among Rhodes University students. If successful, rates of respiratory and hygiene-related diseases will be decreased and emergency health management simplified.

Keywords: Awareness, Food hygiene, Infectious disease spread, Undergraduate students.

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697 Negative Impact of Bacteria Legionella Pneumophila in Hot Water Distribution Systems on Human Health

Authors: Daniela Ocipova, Zuzana Vranayova, Ondrej Sikula

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Safe drinking water is one of the biggest issues facing the planet this century. The primary aim of this paper is to present our research focused on theoretical and experimental analysis of potable water and in-building water distribution systems from the point of view of microbiological risk on the basis of confrontation between the theoretical analysis and synthesis of gathered information in conditions of the Slovak Republic. The presence of the bacteria Legionella in water systems, especially in hot water distribution system, represents in terms of health protection of inhabitants the crucial problem which cannot be overlooked. Legionella pneumophila discovery, its classification and its influence on installations inside buildings are relatively new. There are a lot of guidelines and regulations developed in many individual countries for the design, operation and maintenance for tap water systems to avoid the growth of bacteria Legionella pneumophila, but in Slovakia we don-t have any. The goal of this paper is to show the necessity of prevention and regulations for installations inside buildings verified by simulation methods.

Keywords: Legionella pneumophila, water temperature, distribution system, risk analysis, simulations.

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696 Using Data Mining Methodology to Build the Predictive Model of Gold Passbook Price

Authors: Chien-Hui Yang, Che-Yang Lin, Ya-Chen Hsu

Abstract:

Gold passbook is an investing tool that is especially suitable for investors to do small investment in the solid gold. The gold passbook has the lower risk than other ways investing in gold, but its price is still affected by gold price. However, there are many factors can cause influences on gold price. Therefore, building a model to predict the price of gold passbook can both reduce the risk of investment and increase the benefits. This study investigates the important factors that influence the gold passbook price, and utilize the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) to build the predictive model. This method can not only obtain the significant variables but also perform well in prediction. Finally, the significant variables of gold passbook price, which can be predicted by GMDH, are US dollar exchange rate, international petroleum price, unemployment rate, whole sale price index, rediscount rate, foreign exchange reserves, misery index, prosperity coincident index and industrial index.

Keywords: Gold price, Gold passbook price, Group Method ofData Handling (GMDH), Regression.

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695 Three-Level Converters based Generalized Unified Power Quality Conditioner

Authors: Bahr Eldin S. M, K. S. Rama Rao, N. Perumal

Abstract:

A generalized unified power quality conditioner (GUPQC) by using three single-phase three-level voltage source converters (VSCs) connected back-to-back through a common dc link is proposed in this paper as a new custom power device for a three-feeder distribution system. One of the converters is connected in shunt with one feeder for mitigation of current harmonics and reactive power compensation, while the other two VSCs are connected in series with the other two feeders to maintain the load voltage sinusoidal and at constant level. A new control scheme based on synchronous reference frame is proposed for series converters. The simulation analysis on compensation performance of GUPQC based on PSCAD/EMTDC is reported.

Keywords: Custom power device, generalized unified power quality conditioner, PSCAD/ETMDC, voltage source converter

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694 Microalbuminuria in Essential Hypertension

Authors: Sharan Badiger, Prema T. Akkasaligar, Sandeep HM, Biradar MS

Abstract:

Essential hypertension (HTN) usually clusters with other cardiovascular risk factors such as age, overweight, diabetes, insulin resistance and dyslipidemia. The target organ damage (TOD) such as left ventricular hypertrophy, microalbuminuria (MA), acute coronary syndrome (ACS), stroke and cognitive dysfunction takes place early in course of hypertension. Though the prevalence of hypertension is high in India, the relationship between microalbuminuria and target organ damage in hypertension is not well studied. This study aim at detecting MA in essential hypertension and its relation to severity of HTN, duration of HTN, body mass index (BMI), age and TOD such as HTN retinopathy and acute coronary syndrome The present study was done in 100 patients of essential hypertension non diabetics admitted to B.L.D.E.University-s Sri B.M.Patil Medical College, Bijapur, from October 2008 to April 2011. The patients underwent detailed history and clinical examination. Early morning 5 ml of urine sample was collected & MA was estimated by immunoturbidometry method. The relationship of MA with the duration & severity of HTN, BMI, age, sex and TOD's like hypertensive retinopathy, ACS was assessed by univariate analysis. The prevalence of MA in this study was found to be 63 %. In that 42% were male & 21% were female. In this study a significant association between MA and the duration of hypertension (p = 0.036) & (OR =0.438). Longer the duration of hypertension, more possibility of microalbumin in urine. Also there was a significant association between severity of hypertension and MA (p=0.045) and (OR=0.093). MA was positive in 50 (79.4%) patients out of 63, whose blood pressure was >160/100 mm Hg. In this study a significant association between MA and the grades of hypertensive retinopathy (p =0.011) and acute coronary syndrome (p = 0.041) (OR =2.805). Gender and BMI did not pose high risk for MA in this study.The prevalence of MA in essential hypertension is high in this part of the community and MA will increase the risk of developing target organ damage.Early screening of patients with essential hypertension for MA and aggressive management of positive cases might reduce the burden of chronic kidney diseases and cardiovascular diseases in the community.

Keywords: Acute coronary syndrome, Essential hypertension, Microalbuminuria, Target organ damage

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693 Machine Scoring Model Using Data Mining Techniques

Authors: Wimalin S. Laosiritaworn, Pongsak Holimchayachotikul

Abstract:

this article proposed a methodology for computer numerical control (CNC) machine scoring. The case study company is a manufacturer of hard disk drive parts in Thailand. In this company, sample of parts manufactured from CNC machine are usually taken randomly for quality inspection. These inspection data were used to make a decision to shut down the machine if it has tendency to produce parts that are out of specification. Large amount of data are produced in this process and data mining could be very useful technique in analyzing them. In this research, data mining techniques were used to construct a machine scoring model called 'machine priority assessment model (MPAM)'. This model helps to ensure that the machine with higher risk of producing defective parts be inspected before those with lower risk. If the defective prone machine is identified sooner, defective part and rework could be reduced hence improving the overall productivity. The results showed that the proposed method can be successfully implemented and approximately 351,000 baht of opportunity cost could have saved in the case study company.

Keywords: Computer Numerical Control, Data Mining, HardDisk Drive.

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692 Risk Assessment of Lead in Egyptian Vegetables and Fruits from Different Environments

Authors: A. A. K. Abou-Arab, M. A. Abou Donia, Sherif R. Mohamed, A. K. Enab

Abstract:

Lead being a toxic heavy metal that mankind is exposed to the highest levels of this metal. There are different sources of environmental pollution with lead as lead alkyl additives in petrol and manufacturing processes. The contaminated atmosphere in urban and industrial areas by lead in Egypt may lead to the contamination of foods beside the other different sources. The present investigation studied the risk assessment of lead in some Egyptian edible vegetables and fruits collected from different environments in Greater Cairo Governorate, i.e. industrial, heavy traffic and rural areas. A total of 325 leafy and fruity vegetables and fruits samples belonging to 11, 6 and 4 different species, respectively were randomly collected from markets of the three main models. Data indicated the variation of lead levels in different three areas. The highest levels of lead were detected in the samples collected from industrial and traffic areas. However, the lowest levels were found in the rural areas. It could be concluded that determination of lead levels in foods from different localities and environments at regularly is very important.

Keywords: Heavy metals, Lead, Vegetables, Fruits, Environments.

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691 Early Onset Neonatal Sepsis Pathogens in Malaysian Hospitals: Determining Empiric Antibiotic

Authors: Nazedah Ain Ibrahim, Mohamed Mansor Manan

Abstract:

Information regarding early onset neonatal sepsis (EONS) pathogens may vary between regions. Global perspectives showed Group B Streptococcal (GBS) as the most common causative pathogens, but the widespread use of intrapartum antibiotics has changed the pathogens pattern towards gram negative microorganisms, especially E. coli. Objective of this study is to describe the pathogens isolated, to assess current treatment and risk of EONS. Records of 899 neonates born in three General Hospitals between 2009 until 2012 were retrospectively reviewed. Proven was found in 22 (3%) neonates. The majority was isolated with gram positive organisms, 17 (2.3%). All grams positive and most gram negative organisms showed sensitivity to the tested antibiotics. Only two rare gram negative organisms showed total resistant. Male was possible risk of proven EONS. Although proven EONS remains uncommon in Malaysia, nonetheless, the effect of intrapartum antibiotics still required continuous surveillance.

Keywords: Early onset neonatal sepsis, neonates, pathogens, gram positive, gram negative.

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690 Trusting Smart Speakers: Analysing the Different Levels of Trust between Technologies

Authors: Alec Wells, Aminu Bello Usman, Justin McKeown

Abstract:

The growing usage of smart speakers raises many privacy and trust concerns compared to other technologies such as smart phones and computers. In this study, a proxy measure of trust is used to gauge users’ opinions on three different technologies based on an empirical study, and to understand which technology most people are most likely to trust. The collected data were analysed using the Kruskal-Wallis H test to determine the statistical differences between the users’ trust level of the three technologies: smart speaker, computer and smart phone. The findings of the study revealed that despite the wide acceptance, ease of use and reputation of smart speakers, people find it difficult to trust smart speakers with their sensitive information via the Direct Voice Input (DVI) and would prefer to use a keyboard or touchscreen offered by computers and smart phones. Findings from this study can inform future work on users’ trust in technology based on perceived ease of use, reputation, perceived credibility and risk of using technologies via DVI.

Keywords: Direct voice input, risk, security, technology and trust.

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689 Multivariate High Order Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting for Car Road Accidents

Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, S. M. Aqil Burney, C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper, we have presented a new multivariate fuzzy time series forecasting method. This method assumes mfactors with one main factor of interest. History of past three years is used for making new forecasts. This new method is applied in forecasting total number of car accidents in Belgium using four secondary factors. We also make comparison of our proposed method with existing methods of fuzzy time series forecasting. Experimentally, it is shown that our proposed method perform better than existing fuzzy time series forecasting methods. Practically, actuaries are interested in analysis of the patterns of causalities in road accidents. Thus using fuzzy time series, actuaries can define fuzzy premium and fuzzy underwriting of car insurance and life insurance for car insurance. National Institute of Statistics, Belgium provides region of risk classification for each road. Thus using this risk classification, we can predict premium rate and underwriting of insurance policy holders.

Keywords: Average forecasting error rate (AFER), Fuzziness offuzzy sets Fuzzy, If-Then rules, Multivariate fuzzy time series.

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688 Environmental Management System for Tourist Accommodations in Amphawa, Samut Songkram,Thailand

Authors: T. Utarasakul

Abstract:

Amphawa is the most popular weekend destination for both domestic and international tourists in Thailand. More than 112 homestays and resorts have been developed along the water resources. This research aims to initiate appropriate environmental management system for riverside tourist accommodations in Amphawa by investigating current environmental characteristics. Eighty-eight riverside tourist accommodations were survey from specific questionnaire, GPS data were also gathered for spatial analysis. The results revealed that the accommodations are welled manage in regards to some environmental aspects. In order to reduce economic costs, energy efficiency equipment is utilized. A substantial number of tourist accommodations encouraged waste separation, followed by transfer to local administration organization. Grease traps also utilized in order to decrease chemical discharged, grease and oil from canteen and restaurants on natural environment. The most notable mitigation is to initiate environmental friendly cleansers for tourist accommodation along the riverside in tourism destinations.

Keywords: Environmental Management System, Tourist Accommodations, Amphawa, Samut Songkram

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