Search results for: exponential distribution.

Authors: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, Ebobenow Joseph

Abstract:

In this paper, temperature extremes are forecast by employing the block maxima method of the Generalized extreme value(GEV) distribution to analyse temperature data from the Cameroon Development Corporation (C.D.C). By considering two sets of data (Raw data and simulated data) and two (stationary and non-stationary) models of the GEV distribution, return levels analysis is carried out and it was found that in the stationary model, the return values are constant over time with the raw data while in the simulated data, the return values show an increasing trend but with an upper bound. In the non-stationary model, the return levels of both the raw data and simulated data show an increasing trend but with an upper bound. This clearly shows that temperatures in the tropics even-though show a sign of increasing in the future, there is a maximum temperature at which there is no exceedence. The results of this paper are very vital in Agricultural and Environmental research.

Keywords: Return level, Generalized extreme value (GEV), Meteorology, Forecasting.

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Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

Abstract:

The statistical modelling of precipitation data for a given portion of territory is fundamental for the monitoring of climatic conditions and for Hydrogeological Management Plans (HMP). This modelling is rendered particularly complex by the changes taking place in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, presumably to be attributed to the global climate change. This paper applies the Wakeby distribution (with 5 parameters) as a theoretical reference model. The number and the quality of the parameters indicate that this distribution may be the appropriate choice for the interpolations of the hydrological variables and, moreover, the Wakeby is particularly suitable for describing phenomena producing heavy tails. The proposed estimation methods for determining the value of the Wakeby parameters are the same as those used for density functions with heavy tails. The commonly used procedure is the classic method of moments weighed with probabilities (probability weighted moments, PWM) although this has often shown difficulty of convergence, or rather, convergence to a configuration of inappropriate parameters. In this paper, we analyze the problem of the likelihood estimation of a random variable expressed through its quantile function. The method of maximum likelihood, in this case, is more demanding than in the situations of more usual estimation. The reasons for this lie, in the sampling and asymptotic properties of the estimators of maximum likelihood which improve the estimates obtained with indications of their variability and, therefore, their accuracy and reliability. These features are highly appreciated in contexts where poor decisions, attributable to an inefficient or incomplete information base, can cause serious damages.

Keywords: Generalized extreme values (GEV), likelihood estimation, precipitation data, Wakeby distribution.

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Authors: F. Urem, K. Fertalj, Ž. Mikulić

Abstract:

This paper presents the possibilities of using Weibull statistical distribution in modeling the distribution of defects in ERP systems. There follows a case study, which examines helpdesk records of defects that were reported as the result of one ERP subsystem upgrade. The result of the applied modeling is in modeling the reliability of the ERP system from a user perspective with estimated parameters like expected maximum number of defects in one day or predicted minimum of defects between two upgrades. Applied measurement-based analysis framework is proved to be suitable in predicting future states of the reliability of the observed ERP subsystems.

Keywords: ERP, reliability, Weibull

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Authors: Armansyah, I. P. Almanar, M. Saiful Bahari Shaari, M. Shamil Jaffarullah, Nur’amirah Busu, M. Arif Fadzleen Zainal Abidin, M. Amlie A. Kasim

Abstract:

During welding, the amount of heat present in weld zones determines the quality of weldment produced. Thus, the heat distribution characteristics and its magnitude in weld zones with respect to process variables such as tool pin-shoulder rotational and traveling speed during welding is analyzed using thermal finite element analyses method. For this purpose, transient thermal finite element analyses are performed to model the temperatures distribution and its quantities in weld-zones with respect to process variables such as rotational speed and traveling speed during welding. Commercially available software Altair HyperWork is used to model three-dimensional tool pin-shoulder vs. workpieces and to simulate the friction stir process. The results show that increasing tool rotational speed, at a constant traveling speed, will increase the amount of heat generated in weld-zones. In contrary, increasing traveling speed, at constant tool pin-shoulder rotational speeds, will reduce the amount of heat generated in weld zones.

Keywords: Frictions Stir Welding, Temperature Distribution, Finite Element Method, Altair Hyperwork.

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Authors: D. Boutana, B. Barkat , F. Marir

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a novel time-frequency distribution (TFD) for the analysis of multi-component signals. In particular, we use synthetic as well as real-life speech signals to prove the superiority of the proposed TFD in comparison to some existing ones. In the comparison, we consider the cross-terms suppression and the high energy concentration of the signal around its instantaneous frequency (IF).

Keywords: Cohen's Class, Multicomponent signal, SeparableKernel, Speech signal, Time- frequency resolution.

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Authors: Kaman M. O., Celik N.

Abstract:

In this study, stress distributions on dental implants made of functionally graded biomaterials (FGBM) are investigated numerically. The implant body is considered to be subjected to axial compression loads. Numerical problem is assumed to be 2D, and ANSYS commercial software is used for the analysis. The cross section of the implant thread varies as varying the height (H) and the width (t) of the thread. According to thread dimensions of implant and material properties of FGBM, equivalent stress distribution on the implant is determined and presented with contour plots along with the maximum equivalent stress values. As a result, with increasing material gradient parameter (n), the equivalent stress decreases, but the minimum stress distribution increases. Maximum stress values decrease with decreasing implant radius (r). Maximum von Mises stresses increases with decreasing H when t is constant. On the other hand, the stress values are not affected by variation of t in the case of H = constant.

Keywords: Functionally graded biomaterials, dental implant finite element method.

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Authors: M. Hakak Khadem, S. Hossainpour, M. Shams

Abstract:

A numerical simulation of micro Poiseuille flow has performed for rarefied and compressible flow at slip flow regimes. The wall roughness is simulated in two cases with triangular microelements and random micro peaks distributed on wall surfaces to study the effects of roughness shape and distribution on flow field. Two values of Mach and Knudsen numbers have used to investigate the effects of rarefaction as well as compressibility. The numerical results have also checked with available theoretical and experimental relations and good agreements has achieved. High influence of roughness shape can be seen for both compressible and incompressible rarefied flows. In addition it is found that rarefaction has more significant effect on flow field in microchannels with higher relative roughness. It is also found that compressibility has more significant effects on Poiseuille number when relative roughness increases.

Keywords: Relative roughness, slip flow, Poiseuille number, roughness distribution.

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Authors: M. Tarafdar Haque, S. Najafi

Abstract:

Improving the reactive power and voltage profile of a distribution substation is investigated in this paper. The purpose is to properly determination of the shunt capacitors on/off status and suitable tap changer (TC) position of a substation transformer. In addition, the limitation of secondary bus voltage, the maximum allowable number of switching operation in a day for on load tap changer and on/off status of capacitors are taken into account. To achieve these goals, an artificial neural network (ANN) is designed to provide preliminary scheduling. Input of ANN is active and reactive powers of transformer and its primary and secondary bus voltages. The output of ANN is capacitors on/off status and TC position. The preliminary schedule is further refined by fuzzy dynamic programming in order to reach the final schedule. The operation of proposed method in Q/V improving is compared with the results obtained by operator operation in a distribution substation.

Keywords: Neuro-fuzzy, Dynamic programming, Reactive power, Voltage profile.

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Authors: U. Prasopchingchana

Abstract:

The temperature distribution and the heat transfer rates through a multi-layer door of a furnace were investigated. The inside of the door was in contact with hot air and the other side of the door was in contact with room air. Radiation heat transfer from the walls of the furnace to the door and the door to the surrounding area was included in the problem. This work is a two dimensional steady state problem. The Churchill and Chu correlation was used to find local convection heat transfer coefficients at the surfaces of the furnace door. The thermophysical properties of air were the functions of the temperatures. Polynomial curve fitting for the fluid properties were carried out. Finite difference method was used to discretize for conduction heat transfer within the furnace door. The Gauss-Seidel Iteration was employed to compute the temperature distribution in the door. The temperature distribution in the horizontal mid plane of the furnace door in a two dimensional problem agrees with the one dimensional problem. The local convection heat transfer coefficients at the inside and outside surfaces of the furnace door are exhibited.

Keywords: Conduction, heat transfer, multi-layer door, natural convection

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Authors: M. A. Tayfun, M. A. Alkhalidi

Abstract:

The exact theoretical expression describing the probability distribution of nonlinear sea-surface elevations derived from the second-order narrowband model has a cumbersome form that requires numerical computations, not well-disposed to theoretical or practical applications. Here, the same narrowband model is reexamined to develop a simpler closed-form approximation suitable for theoretical and practical applications. The salient features of the approximate form are explored, and its relative validity is verified with comparisons to other readily available approximations, and oceanic data.

Keywords: Ocean waves, probability distributions, second-order nonlinearities, skewness coefficient, wave steepness.

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Authors: Mohammad Mohammad

Abstract:

With the exponential progress of technological development comes a strong sense that events are moving too quickly for our schools and that teachers may be losing control of them in the process. This paper examines the impact of e-learning and e-teaching in universities, from both the student and teacher perspective. In particular, it is shown that e-teachers should focus not only on the technical capacities and functions of IT materials and activities, but must attempt to more fully understand how their e-learners perceive the learning environment. From the e-learner perspective, this paper indicates that simply having IT tools available does not automatically translate into all students becoming effective learners. More evidence-based evaluative research is needed to allow e-learning and e-teaching to reach full potential.

Keywords: e-learning, e-teaching, distance learning, education

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Authors: Berna Eren Tokgoz, Mahdi Safa, Seokyon Hwang

Abstract:

Power distribution systems are essential and crucial infrastructures for the development and maintenance of a sustainable society. These systems are extremely vulnerable to various types of natural and man-made disasters. The assessment of resilience focuses on preparedness and mitigation actions under pre-disaster conditions. It also concentrates on response and recovery actions under post-disaster situations. The aim of this study is to present a methodology to assess the resilience of electric power distribution poles against wind-related events. The proposed methodology can improve the accuracy and rapidity of the evaluation of the conditions and the assessment of the resilience of poles. The methodology provides a metric for the evaluation of the resilience of poles under pre-disaster and post-disaster conditions. The metric was developed using mathematical expressions for physical forces that involve various variables, such as physical dimensions of the pole, the inclination of the pole, and wind speed. A three-dimensional imaging technology (photogrammetry) was used to determine the inclination of poles. Based on expert opinion, the proposed metric was used to define zones to visualize resilience. Visual representation of resilience is helpful for decision makers to prioritize their resources before and after experiencing a wind-related disaster. Multiple electric poles in the City of Beaumont, TX were used in a case study to evaluate the proposed methodology.  

Keywords: Photogrammetry, power distribution systems, resilience metric, system resilience, wind-related disasters.

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Authors: Elias K. Maragos, Petros E. Maravelakis

Abstract:

In Dynamic Data Envelopment Analysis (DDEA), which is a subfield of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), the productivity of Decision Making Units (DMUs) is considered in relation to time. In this case, as it is accepted by the most of the researchers, there are outputs, which are produced by a DMU to be used as inputs in a future time. Those outputs are known as intermediates. The common models, in DDEA, do not take into account the shape of the distribution of those inputs, outputs or intermediates data, assuming that the distribution of the virtual value of them does not deviate from linearity. This weakness causes the limitation of the accuracy of the analytical power of the traditional DDEA models. In this paper, the authors, using the concept of piecewise linear inputs and outputs, propose an extended DDEA model. The proposed model increases the flexibility of the traditional DDEA models and improves the measurement of the dynamic performance of DMUs.

Keywords: Data envelopment analysis, Dynamic DEA, Piecewise linear inputs, Piecewise linear outputs.

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Authors: Wanhyun Cho, Soonja Kang, Sangkyoon Kim, Soonyoung Park

Abstract:

We present probabilistic multinomial Dirichlet classification model for multidimensional data and Gaussian process priors. Here, we have considered efficient computational method that can be used to obtain the approximate posteriors for latent variables and parameters needed to define the multiclass Gaussian process classification model. We first investigated the process of inducing a posterior distribution for various parameters and latent function by using the variational Bayesian approximations and important sampling method, and next we derived a predictive distribution of latent function needed to classify new samples. The proposed model is applied to classify the synthetic multivariate dataset in order to verify the performance of our model. Experiment result shows that our model is more accurate than the other approximation methods.

Keywords: Multinomial dirichlet classification model, Gaussian process priors, variational Bayesian approximation, Importance sampling, approximate posterior distribution, Marginal likelihood evidence.

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Authors: R. Rajabpour, N. Talebbeydokhti, M. H. Ahmadi

Abstract:

In recent years, new techniques for solving complex problems in engineering are proposed. One of these techniques is JPSO algorithm. With innovative changes in the nature of the jump algorithm JPSO, it is possible to construct a graph-based solution with a new algorithm called G-JPSO. In this paper, a new algorithm to solve the optimal control problem Fletcher-Powell and optimal control of pumps in water distribution network was evaluated. Optimal control of pumps comprise of optimum timetable operation (status on and off) for each of the pumps at the desired time interval. Maximum number of status on and off for each pumps imposed to the objective function as another constraint. To determine the optimal operation of pumps, a model-based optimization-simulation algorithm was developed based on G-JPSO and JPSO algorithms. The proposed algorithm results were compared well with the ant colony algorithm, genetic and JPSO results. This shows the robustness of proposed algorithm in finding near optimum solutions with reasonable computational cost.

Keywords: G-JPSO, operation, optimization, pumping station, water distribution networks.

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Authors: Morteza Fathipour, Seyed Nasrolah Anousheh, Kaveh Ghiafeh Davoudi, Vala Fathipour

Abstract:

A device analysis of the photoconductive semiconductor switch is carried out to investigate distribution of electric field and carrier concentrations as well as the current density distribution. The operation of this device was then investigated as a switch operating in X band. It is shown that despite the presence of symmetry geometry, switch current density of the on-state steady state mode is distributed asymmetrically throughout the device.

Keywords: Band X, Gallium-Arsenide, Mixed mode, PCSS, Photoconductivity.

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Authors: Lihui Ma, Kunlun Xin, Suiqing Liu

Abstract:

Modern managements of water distribution system (WDS) need water quality models that are able to accurately predict the dynamics of water quality variations within the distribution system environment. Before water quality models can be applied to solve system problems, they should be calibrated. Although former researchers use GA solver to calibrate relative parameters, it is difficult to apply on the large-scale or medium-scale real system for long computational time. In this paper a new method is designed which combines both macro and detailed model to optimize the water quality parameters. This new combinational algorithm uses radial basis function (RBF) metamodeling as a surrogate to be optimized for the purpose of decreasing the times of time-consuming water quality simulation and can realize rapidly the calibration of pipe wall reaction coefficients of chlorine model of large-scaled WDS. After two cases study this method is testified to be more efficient and promising, and deserve to generalize in the future.

Keywords: Metamodeling, model calibration, radial basisfunction, water distribution system, water quality model.

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Authors: Ami Kim, Oubong Gwun, Juwhan Song

Abstract:

In this paper, we proposed the distribution of mesh normal vector direction as a feature descriptor of a 3D model. A normal vector shows the entire shape of a model well. The distribution of normal vectors was sampled in proportion to each polygon's area so that the information on the surface with less surface area may be less reflected on composing a feature descriptor in order to enhance retrieval performance. At the analysis result of ANMRR, the enhancement of approx. 12.4%~34.7% compared to the existing method has also been indicated.

Keywords: Interpolated Normal Vector, Feature Descriptor, 3DModel Retrieval.

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Authors: Zixin Liu, Huawei Yang, Fangwei Chen

Abstract:

In this paper, the issue of pth moment stability of a class of stochastic neural networks with mixed delays is investigated. By establishing two integro-differential inequalities, some new sufficient conditions ensuring pth moment exponential stability are obtained. Compared with some previous publications, our results generalize some earlier works reported in the literature, and remove some strict constraints of time delays and kernel functions. Two numerical examples are presented to illustrate the validity of the main results.

Keywords: Neural networks, stochastic, PTH moment stable, time varying delays, distributed delays.

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Authors: Boguslaw Schreyer

Abstract:

The paper investigates the application of the Kohonen’s Self-Organizing Map (SOM) to the wheeled robot starting and braking dynamic states. In securing wheeled robot stability as well as minimum starting and braking time, it is important to ensure correct torque distribution as well as proper slope of braking and driving moments. In this paper, a correct movement distribution has been formulated, securing optimum adhesion coefficient and good transversal stability of a wheeled robot. A neural tuner has been proposed to secure the above properties, although most of the attention is attached to the SOM network application. If the delay of the torque application or torque release is not negligible, it is important to change the rising and falling slopes of the torque. The road/surface condition is also paramount in robot dynamic states control. As the road conditions may randomly change in time, application of the SOM network has been suggested in order to classify the actual road conditions.

Keywords: SOM network, torque distribution, torque slope, wheeled robots.

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Authors: Verónica Diaz Quezada

Abstract:

This research examines the teaching models used by secondary math teachers when teaching logarithmic, quadratic and exponential functions. For this, descriptive case studies have been carried out on 5 secondary teachers. These teachers have been chosen from 3 scientific-humanistic and technical schools, in Chile. Data have been obtained through non-participant class observation and the application of a questionnaire and a rubric to teachers. According to the results, the didactic model that prevails is the one that starts with an interactive strategy, moves to a more content-based structure, and ends with a reinforcement stage. Nonetheless, there is always influence from teachers, their methods, and the group of students.

Keywords: Teaching models, math teachers, functions, secondary education.

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Authors: Othman Belgassim, Krzysztof Jemielniak

Abstract:

The analysis of Acoustic Emission (AE) signal generated from metal cutting processes has often approached statistically. This is due to the stochastic nature of the emission signal as a result of factors effecting the signal from its generation through transmission and sensing. Different techniques are applied in this manner, each of which is suitable for certain processes. In metal cutting where the emission generated by the deformation process is rather continuous, an appropriate method for analysing the AE signal based on the root mean square (RMS) of the signal is often used and is suitable for use with the conventional signal processing systems. The aim of this paper is to set a strategy in tool failure detection in turning processes via the statistic analysis of the AE generated from the cutting zone. The strategy is based on the investigation of the distribution moments of the AE signal at predetermined sampling. The skews and kurtosis of these distributions are the key elements in the detection. A normal (Gaussian) distribution has first been suggested then this was eliminated due to insufficiency. The so called Beta distribution was then considered, this has been used with an assumed β density function and has given promising results with regard to chipping and tool breakage detection.

Keywords: AE signal, skew, kurtosis, tool failure

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Authors: H. Bevrani, N. Najafi

Abstract:

This paper uses p-tolerance with the lowest posterior loss, quadratic loss function, average length criteria, average coverage criteria, and worst outcome criterion for computing of sample size to estimate proportion in Binomial probability function with Beta prior distribution. The proposed methodology is examined, and its effectiveness is shown.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, Beta-binomial Distribution, LPLcriteria, quadratic loss function.

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Authors: G. M. Arun Prasath, N. Arthi

Abstract:

This work proposed a multi-objective mathematical programming approach to select the appropriate supply network elements. The multi-item multi-objective production-distribution inventory model is formulated with possible constraints under fuzzy environment. The unit cost has taken under fuzzy environment. The inventory model and warehouse location model has combined to formulate the production-distribution inventory model. Warehouse location is important in supply chain network. Particularly, if a company maintains more selling stores it cannot maintain individual secondary warehouse near to each selling store. Hence, maintaining the optimum number of secondary warehouses is important. Hence, the combined mathematical model is formulated to reduce the total expenditure of the organization by arranging the network of minimum number of secondary warehouses. Numerical example has been taken to illustrate the proposed model.

Keywords: Fuzzy inventory model, warehouse location model, triangular fuzzy number, secondary warehouse, LINGO software.

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Authors: Alaa Fahmy

Abstract:

Key management represents a major and the most sensitive part of cryptographic systems. It includes key generation, key distribution, key storage, and key deletion. It is also considered the hardest part of cryptography. Designing secure cryptographic algorithms is hard, and keeping the keys secret is much harder. Cryptanalysts usually attack both symmetric and public key cryptosystems through their key management. We introduce a protocol to exchange cipher keys over insecure communication channel. This protocol is based on public key cryptosystem, especially elliptic curve cryptosystem. Meanwhile, it tests the cipher keys and selects only the good keys and rejects the weak one.

Keywords: Key management and key distribution.

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Authors: Jinyong Yao, Hongzhi Li, Chao Du, Jiao Li

Abstract:

Reliability of long-term storage products is related to the availability of the whole system, and the evaluation of storage life is of great necessity. These products are usually highly reliable and little failure information can be collected. In this paper, an analytical method based on data from accelerated storage life test is proposed to evaluate the reliability index of the long-term storage products. Firstly, singularities are eliminated by data normalization and residual analysis. Secondly, with the preprocessed data, the degradation path model is built to obtain the pseudo life values. Then by life distribution hypothesis, we can get the estimator of parameters in high stress levels and verify failure mechanism consistency. Finally, the life distribution under the normal stress level is extrapolated via the acceleration model and evaluation of the actual average life is available. An application example with the camera stabilization device is provided to illustrate the methodology we proposed.

Keywords: Accelerated storage life test, failure mechanism consistency, life distribution, reliability.

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Authors: S. M. Khalessizadeh, R. Zaefarian, S.H. Nasseri, E. Ardil

Abstract:

Today, Genetic Algorithm has been used to solve wide range of optimization problems. Some researches conduct on applying Genetic Algorithm to text classification, summarization and information retrieval system in text mining process. This researches show a better performance due to the nature of Genetic Algorithm. In this paper a new algorithm for using Genetic Algorithm in concept weighting and topic identification, based on concept standard deviation will be explored.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm, Text Mining, Term Weighting, Concept Extraction, Concept Distribution.

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Authors: Akiyoshi Wakatani

Abstract:

This paper describes the Message Passing Interface (MPI) implementation of ADETRAN language, and its evaluation on SX-ACE supercomputers. ADETRAN language includes pdo statement that specifies the data distribution and parallel computations and pass statement that specifies the redistribution of arrays. Two methods for implementation of pass statement are discussed and the performance evaluation using Splitting-Up CG method is presented. The effectiveness of the parallelization is evaluated and the advantage of one dimensional distribution is empirically confirmed by using the results of experiments.

Keywords: Iterative methods, array redistribution, translator, distributed memory.

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Authors: P. Prema, B. Ramadoss

Abstract:

Computer game industry has experienced exponential growth in recent years. A game is a recreational activity involving one or more players. Game input is information such as data, commands, etc., which is passed to the game system at run time from an external source. Conversely, game outputs are information which are generated by the game system and passed to an external target, but which is not used internally by the game. This paper identifies a new classification scheme for game input and output, which is based on player-s input and output. Using this, relationship table for game input classifier and output classifier is developed.

Keywords: Game Classification, Game Input, Game Output, Game Testing.

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Authors: M. G. M. Khan, V. D. Prasad, D. K. Rao

Abstract:

In this manuscript, we discuss the problem of determining the optimum stratification of a study (or main) variable based on the auxiliary variable that follows a uniform distribution. If the stratification of survey variable is made using the auxiliary variable it may lead to substantial gains in precision of the estimates. This problem is formulated as a Nonlinear Programming Problem (NLPP), which turn out to multistage decision problem and is solved using dynamic programming technique.

Keywords: Auxiliary variable, Dynamic programming technique, Nonlinear programming problem, Optimum stratification, Uniform distribution.

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