Search results for: market share
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1190

Search results for: market share

860 Process Analysis through Length Consistency

Authors: James E. Ponder

Abstract:

The requirement for consistency in physics can sometimes offer a common ground between disciplines such that their fundamental equations share a common parameter set and mathematical method for equation extraction. The parameter set shared by Relativity and Quantum Wave Mechanics enables an analysis which will be seen to be very straightforward, primarily classical in nature using linear algebra concepts, yet deriving a theoretical estimate of the value of the Gravitational Constant along with dependencies never before known.

Keywords: Gravitational Constant, Physical Consistency, Quantum Mechanics, Relativity.

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859 Load Forecasting in Microgrid Systems with R and Cortana Intelligence Suite

Authors: F. Lazzeri, I. Reiter

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Energy production optimization has been traditionally very important for utilities in order to improve resource consumption. However, load forecasting is a challenging task, as there are a large number of relevant variables that must be considered, and several strategies have been used to deal with this complex problem. This is especially true also in microgrids where many elements have to adjust their performance depending on the future generation and consumption conditions. The goal of this paper is to present a solution for short-term load forecasting in microgrids, based on three machine learning experiments developed in R and web services built and deployed with different components of Cortana Intelligence Suite: Azure Machine Learning, a fully managed cloud service that enables to easily build, deploy, and share predictive analytics solutions; SQL database, a Microsoft database service for app developers; and PowerBI, a suite of business analytics tools to analyze data and share insights. Our results show that Boosted Decision Tree and Fast Forest Quantile regression methods can be very useful to predict hourly short-term consumption in microgrids; moreover, we found that for these types of forecasting models, weather data (temperature, wind, humidity and dew point) can play a crucial role in improving the accuracy of the forecasting solution. Data cleaning and feature engineering methods performed in R and different types of machine learning algorithms (Boosted Decision Tree, Fast Forest Quantile and ARIMA) will be presented, and results and performance metrics discussed.

Keywords: Time-series, features engineering methods for forecasting, energy demand forecasting, Azure machine learning.

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858 Procurement for Management Services in Delivery of Public Construction Projects in Poland

Authors: A. Leśniak, E. Plebankiewicz, K. Zima

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Construction projects can be implemented under various contractual and organizational systems. They can be divided into two groups: systems without the managing company where the Client manages the process, and systems with the managing company, where management is entrusted to an external company. In the public sector of the Polish market there are two ways of delivery of construction projects with the participation of the manager: one is to assign operations to another party, the so called Project Supervisor, whilst the other results from the application of FIDIC conditions of contract, which entail appointment of the Engineer. The decision is to be made by the Client and depends on various factors. On the public procurement market in Poland the selection of construction project manager boils down to awarding the contract for such a service. The selection can be done by one of eight public procurement procedures identified by the procurement law. The paper provides the analysis of 96 contracts for services awarded in 2011, which employed construction management. The study aimed to investigate the methods and criteria for selecting managers, applied in practice by the Polish public Clients.

Keywords: construction management, construction services, methods and criteria of tender selection, public procurement

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857 DEMO Based Optimal Power Purchase Planning Under Electricity Price Uncertainty

Authors: Tulika Bhattacharjee, A. K.Chakraborty

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Due to the deregulation of the Electric Supply Industry and the resulting emergence of electricity market, the volumes of power purchases are on the rise all over the world. In a bid to meet the customer-s demand in a reliable and yet economic manner, utilities purchase power from the energy market over and above its own production. This paper aims at developing an optimal power purchase model with two objectives viz economy and environment ,taking various functional operating constraints such as branch flow limits, load bus voltage magnitudes limits, unit capacity constraints and security constraints into consideration.The price of purchased power being an uncertain variable is modeled using fuzzy logic. DEMO (Differential Evolution For Multi-objective Optimization) is used to obtain the pareto-optimal solution set of the multi-objective problem formulated. Fuzzy set theory has been employed to extract the best compromise non-dominated solution. The results obtained on IEEE 30 bus system are presented and compared with that of NSGAII.

Keywords: Deregulation, Differential Evolution, Multi objective Optimization, Pareto Optimal Set, Optimal Power Flow

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856 Technological Environment - International Marketing Strategy Relationship

Authors: Suthawan Chirapanda

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International trade involves both large and small firms engaged in business overseas. Possible drivers that force companies to enter international markets include increasing competition at the domestic market, maturing domestic markets, and limited domestic market opportunities. Technology is an important driving factor in shaping international marketing strategy as well as in driving force towards a more global marketplace, especially technology in communication. It includes telephones, the internet, computer systems and e-mail. There are three main marketing strategy choices, namely standardization approach, adaptation approach and middleof- the-road approach that companies implement to overseas markets. The decision depends on situations and factors facing the companies in the international markets. In this paper, the contingency concept is considered that no single strategy can be effective in all contexts. The effect of strategy on performance depends on specific situational variables. Strategic fit is employed to investigate export marketing strategy adaptation under certain environmental conditions, which in turn can lead to superior performance.

Keywords: Contingency approach, international marketing strategy, strategic fit, technological environment

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855 Destination of the Solid Waste Generated at the Agricultural Products Wholesale Market in Brazil

Authors: C de Almeida, I. M. Dal Fabbro

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The Brazilian Agricultural Products Wholesale Market fits well as example of residues generating system, reaching 750 metric tons per month of total residues, from which 600 metric tons are organic material and 150 metric tons are recyclable materials. Organic material is basically composed of fruit, vegetables and flowers leftovers from the products commercialization. The recyclable compounds are generate from packing material employed in the commercialization process. This research work devoted efforts in carrying quantitative analysis of the residues generated in the agricultural enterprise at its final destination. Data survey followed the directions implemented by the Residues Management Program issued by the agricultural enterprise. It was noticed from that analysis the necessity of changing the logistics applied to the recyclable material collecting process. However, composting process was elected as the organic compounds destination which is considered adequate for a material composed of significant percentage of organic matter far higher than wood, cardboard and plastics contents.

Keywords: Composting, environment, recycling, solid waste.

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854 Proposal for a Generic Context Metamodel

Authors: Jaouadi Imen, Ben Djemaa Raoudha, Ben Abdallah Hanene

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The access to relevant information that is adapted to user’s needs, preferences and environment is a challenge in many applications running. That causes an appearance of context-aware systems. To facilitate the development of this class of applications, it is necessary that these applications share a common context metamodel. In this article, we will present our context metamodel that is defined using the OMG Meta Object facility (MOF).This metamodel is based on the analysis and synthesis of context concepts proposed in literature.

Keywords: Context, metamodel, Meta Object Facility (MOF), awareness system.

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853 Investigating the UAE Residential Valuation System: A Framework for Analysis

Authors: Simon Huston, Ebraheim Lahbash, Ali Parsa

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The development of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) into a regional trade, tourism, finance and logistics hub has transformed its real estate markets. However, speculative activity and price volatility remain concerns. UAE residential market values (MV) are exposed to fluctuations in capital flows and migration which, in turn, are affected by geopolitical uncertainty, oil price volatility and global investment market sentiment. Internally, a complex interplay between administrative boundaries, land tenure, building quality and evolving location characteristics fragments UAE residential property markets. In short, the UAE Residential Valuation System (UAE-RVS) confronts multiple challenges to collect, filter and analyze relevant information in complex and dynamic spatial and capital markets. A robust (RVS) can mitigate the risk of unhelpful volatility, speculative excess or investment mistakes. The research outlines the institutional, ontological, dynamic and epistemological issues at play. We highlight the importance of system capabilities, valuation standard salience and stakeholders trust.

Keywords: Valuation, property rights, information, institutions, trust, salience.

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852 Environmental Capacity and Sustainability of European Regional Airports: A Case Study

Authors: Nicola Gualandi, Luca Mantecchini, Davide Serrau

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Airport capacity has always been perceived in the traditional sense as the number of aircraft operations during a specified time corresponding to a tolerable level of average delay and it mostly depends on the airside characteristics, on the fleet mix variability and on the ATM. The adoption of the Directive 2002/30/EC in the EU countries drives the stakeholders to conceive airport capacity in a different way though. Airport capacity in this sense is fundamentally driven by environmental criteria, and since acoustical externalities represent the most important factors, those are the ones that could pose a serious threat to the growth of airports and to aviation market itself in the short-medium term. The importance of the regional airports in the deregulated market grew fast during the last decade since they represent spokes for network carriers and a preferential destination for low-fares carriers. Not only regional airports have witnessed a fast and unexpected growth in traffic but also a fast growth in the complaints for the nuisance by the people living near those airports. In this paper the results of a study conducted in cooperation with the airport of Bologna G. Marconi are presented in order to investigate airport acoustical capacity as a defacto constraint of airport growth.

Keywords: Airport acoustical capacity, airport noise, air traffic noise, sustainability of regional airports.

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851 Liquidity Risk of Banks in Light of a Dominant Share of Foreign Capital in the Polish Banking Sector

Authors: Karolina Patora

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This article investigates liquidity risk management by banks, which has gained significant importance since the global financial crisis of 2008. The issue is of particular interest for countries like Poland, in which foreign capital plays a dominant role. Such an ownership structure poses certain risks to the local banking sector, which faces an increased probability of the withdrawal of funding or assets’ transfers abroad in case of a crisis. Both these factors can have a detrimental influence on the liquidity position of foreign-owned banks and hence negatively affect the financial stability of the whole banking sector. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of a dominating share of foreign investors in the Polish banking sector on the liquidity position of commercial banks. The study hypothesizes that the ownership structure of the Polish banking sector, in which there are banks predominantly controlled by foreign investors, does not pose a threat to the liquidity position of Polish banks. A supplementary research hypothesis is that the liquidity risk profile of foreign-owned banks differs from that of domestic banks. The sample consists of 14 foreign-owned banks and 5 domestic banks owned by local investors, which together constitute approximately 87% of the banking sector’s assets. The data covers the period of 2004–2014. The results of the regression models show no evidence of significant differences in terms of the dynamics of changes of the liquidity buffers between the foreign-owned and domestic banks, although the signs of the coefficients might suggest that the foreign-owned banks were decreasing the holdings of liquid assets at a slower pace over the examined period, compared to the domestic banks. However, no proof of the statistical significance of these findings has been found. The supplementary research hypothesis that the liquidity risk profile of foreign-controlled banks differs from that of domestic banks was rejected.

Keywords: Financial stability, foreign-owned banks, liquidity position, liquidity risk.

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850 Bridging the Green-Value-Gap: A South African Approach

Authors: E.J. Cilliers

Abstract:

Green- spaces might be very attractive, but where are the economic benefits? What value do nature and landscape have for us? What difference will it make to jobs, health and the economic strength of areas struggling with deprivation and social problems? [1].There is a need to consider green spaces from a different perspective. Green planning is not just about flora and fauna, but also about planning for economic benefits [2]. It is worth trying to quantify the value of green spaces since nature and landscape are crucially important to our quality of life and sustainable development. The reality, however, is that urban development often takes place at the expense of green spaces. Urbanization is an ongoing process throughout the world; however, hyper-urbanization without environmental planning is destructive, not constructive [3]. Urban spaces are believed to be more valuable than other land uses, particular green areas, simply because of the market value connected to urban spaces. However, attractive landscapes can help raise the quality and value of the urban market even more. In order to reach these objectives of integrated planning, the Green-Value-Gap needs to be bridged. Economists have to understand the concept of Green-Planning and the spinoffs, and Environmentalists have to understand the importance of urban economic development and the benefits thereof to green planning. An interface between Environmental Management, Economic Development and sustainable Spatial Planning are needed to bridge the Green-Value-Gap.

Keywords: Spatial Planning, Environmental Management, Green-Value-Gap, Compensation, Participation.

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849 The Ability of Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates Based On Nelson-Siegel and Svensson Model

Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović

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Due to the importance of yield curve and its estimation it is inevitable to have valid methods for yield curve forecasting in cases when there are scarce issues of securities and/or week trade on a secondary market. Therefore in this paper, after the estimation of weekly yield curves on Croatian financial market from October 2011 to August 2012 using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models, yield curves are forecasted using Vector autoregressive model and Neural networks. In general, it can be concluded that both forecasting methods have good prediction abilities where forecasting of yield curves based on Nelson Siegel estimation model give better results in sense of lower Mean Squared Error than forecasting based on Svensson model Also, in this case Neural networks provide slightly better results. Finally, it can be concluded that most appropriate way of yield curve prediction is Neural networks using Nelson-Siegel estimation of yield curves.

Keywords: Nelson-Siegel model, Neural networks, Svensson model, Vector autoregressive model, Yield curve.

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848 On the Transition of Europe’s Power Sector: Economic Consequences of National Targets

Authors: Geoffrey J. Blanford, Christoph Weissbart

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The prospects for the European power sector indicate that it has to almost fully decarbonize in order to reach the economy-wide target of CO2-emission reduction. We apply the EU-REGEN model to explain the penetration of RES from an economic perspective, their spatial distribution, and the complementary role of conventional generation technologies. Furthermore, we identify economic consequences of national energy and climate targets. Our study shows that onshore wind power will be the most crucial generation technology for the future European power sector. Its geographic distribution is driven by resource quality. Gas power will be the major conventional generation technology for backing-up wind power. Moreover, a complete phase out of coal power proves to be not economically optimal. The paper demonstrates that existing national targets have a negative impact, especially on the German region with higher prices and lower revenues. The remaining regions profit are hardly affected. We encourage an EU-wide coordination on the expansion of wind power with harmonized policies. Yet, this requires profitable market structures for both, RES and conventional generation technologies.

Keywords: European decarbonization pathway, power market investment, public policies, technology choice.

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847 The Influences of Marketing Mix on Customer Purchasing Behavior at Chatuchak Plaza Market

Authors: Bundit Pungnirund

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The objective of this research was to study the influence of marketing mix on customers purchasing behavior. A total of 397 respondents were collected from customers who were the patronages of the Chatuchak Plaza market. A questionnaire was utilized as a tool to collect data. Statistics utilized in this research included frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and multiple regression analysis. Data were analyzed by using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences. The findings revealed that the majority of respondents were male with the age between 25-34 years old, hold undergraduate degree, married and stay together. The average income of respondents was between 10,001-20,000 baht. In terms of occupation, the majority worked for private companies. The research analysis disclosed that there were three variables of marketing mix which included price (X2), place (X3), and product (X1) which had an influence on the frequency of customer purchasing. These three variables can predict a purchase about 30 percent of the time by using the equation; Y1 = 6.851 + .921(X2) + .949(X3) + .591(X1). It also found that in terms of marketing mixed, there were two variables had an influence on the amount of customer purchasing which were physical characteristic (X6), and the process (X7). These two variables are 17 percent predictive of a purchasing by using the equation: Y2 = 2276.88 + 2980.97(X6) + 2188.09(X7).

Keywords: Influences, Marketing Mixed, Purchasing Behavior.

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846 Metaverse as a Form of Reality and the Impact of Metaverse in Higher Education

Authors: Josefina Bengoechea, Alex Bell

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In the metaverse, the characters were avatars working in a 3-dimensional virtual reality. This virtual reality existed beyond reality. The metaverse is a “the post-reality universe”; a perpetual and persistent multiuser environment in which physical reality and digital virtuality are merged. The virtual infrastructure needed to build a metaverse (which is in the process of being created), are: web3 technologies, non-fungible tokens (NFTs), blockchain, smart contracts, and cryptocurrencies. Web3 refers to a new iteration of the actual web2. The actual web2 is dominated by powerful providers like Google, Apple, Amazon, and other corporate tech companies. The vision for web3 is a decentralized, and thus more equitable version of the web. The aim of this paper is, first, to present the Metaverse as a form of reality in which physical reality and digital virtuality combined to provide new experiences to users; second, to discuss the implications for education, specifically for higher education, and how programs will have to be modified so that the skills obtained by graduates match those demanded by the virtual labour market. This paper builds upon a constructivist approach, combining a literature review and research on key publications.

Keywords: Ethics in technology, cross realities, cryptocurrencies, labour market, metaverse, technology in higher education.

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845 Object-Oriented Programming Strategies in C# for Power Conscious System

Authors: Kayun Chantarasathaporn, Chonawat Srisa-an

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Low power consumption is a major constraint for battery-powered system like computer notebook or PDA. In the past, specialists usually designed both specific optimized equipments and codes to relief this concern. Doing like this could work for quite a long time, however, in this era, there is another significant restraint, the time to market. To be able to serve along the power constraint while can launch products in shorter production period, objectoriented programming (OOP) has stepped in to this field. Though everyone knows that OOP has quite much more overhead than assembly and procedural languages, development trend still heads to this new world, which contradicts with the target of low power consumption. Most of the prior power related software researches reported that OOP consumed much resource, however, as industry had to accept it due to business reasons, up to now, no papers yet had mentioned about how to choose the best OOP practice in this power limited boundary. This article is the pioneer that tries to specify and propose the optimized strategy in writing OOP software under energy concerned environment, based on quantitative real results. The language chosen for studying is C# based on .NET Framework 2.0 which is one of the trendy OOP development environments. The recommendation gotten from this research would be a good roadmap that can help developers in coding that well balances between time to market and time of battery.

Keywords: Low power consumption, object oriented programming, power conscious system, software.

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844 Basic Business-Forces behind the Surviving and Sustainable Organizations: The Case of Medium Scale Contractors in South Africa

Authors: Iruka C. Anugwo, Winston M. Shakantu

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The objective of this study is to uncover the basic business-forces that necessitated the survival and sustainable performance of the medium scale contractors in the South African construction market. This study is essential as it set to contribute towards long-term strategic solutions for combating the incessant failure of start-ups construction organizations within South African. The study used a qualitative research methodology; as the most appropriate approach to elicit and understand, and uncover the phenomena that are basic business-forces for the active contractors in the market. The study also adopted a phenomenological study approach; and in-depth interviews were conducted with 20 medium scale contractors in Port Elizabeth, South Africa, between months of August to October 2015. This allowed for an in-depth understanding of the critical and basic business-forces that influenced their survival and performance beyond the first five years of business operation. Findings of the study showed that for potential contractors (startups), to survival in the competitive business environment such as construction industry, they must possess the basic business-forces. These forces are educational knowledge in construction and business management related disciplines, adequate industrial experiences, competencies and capabilities to delivery excellent services and products as well as embracing the spirit of entrepreneurship. Convincingly, it can be concluded that the strategic approach to minimize the endless failure of startups construction businesses; the potential construction contractors must endeavoring to access and acquire the basic educationally knowledge, training and qualification; need to acquire industrial experiences in collaboration with required competencies, capabilities and entrepreneurship acumen. Without these basic business-forces as been discovered in this study, the majority of the contractors gaining entrance in the market will find it difficult to develop and grow a competitive and sustainable construction organization in South Africa.

Keywords: Basic business-forces, medium scale contractors, South Africa, sustainable organisations.

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843 Extending E-learning systems based on Clause-Rule model

Authors: Keisuke Nakamura, Kiyoshi Akama, Hiroshi Mabuchi

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E-Learning systems are used by many learners and teachers. The developer is developing the e-Learning system. However, the developer cannot do system construction to satisfy all of users- demands. We discuss a method of constructing e-Learning systems where learners and teachers can design, try to use, and share extending system functions that they want to use; which may be nally added to the system by system managers.

Keywords: Clause-Rule-Model, database-access, e-Learning, Web-Application.

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842 Factors of Non-Conformity Behavior and the Emergence of a Ponzi Game in the Riba-Free (Interest-Free) Banking System of Iran

Authors: Amir Hossein Ghaffari Nejad, Forouhar Ferdowsi, Reza Mashhadi

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In the interest-free banking system of Iran, the savings of society are in the form of bank deposits, and banks using the Islamic contracts, allocate the resources to applicants for obtaining facilities and credit. In the meantime, the central bank, with the aim of introducing monetary policy, determines the maximum interest rate on bank deposits in terms of macroeconomic requirements. But in recent years, the country's economic constraints with the stagflation and the consequence of the institutional weaknesses of the financial market of Iran have resulted in massive disturbances in the balance sheet of the banking system, resulting in a period of mismatch maturity in the banks' assets and liabilities and the implementation of a Ponzi game. This issue caused determination of the interest rate in long-term bank deposit contracts to be associated with non-observance of the maximum rate set by the central bank. The result of this condition was in the allocation of new sources of equipment to meet past commitments towards the old depositors and, as a result, a significant part of the supply of equipment was leaked out of the facilitating cycle and credit crunch emerged. The purpose of this study is to identify the most important factors affecting the occurrence of non-confirmatory financial banking behavior using data from 19 public and private banks of Iran. For this purpose, the causes of this non-confirmatory behavior of banks have been investigated using the panel vector autoregression method (PVAR) for the period of 2007-2015. Granger's causality test results suggest that the return of parallel markets for bank deposits, non-performing loans and the high share of the ratio of facilities to banks' deposits are all a cause of the formation of non-confirmatory behavior. Also, according to the results of impulse response functions and variance decomposition, NPL and the ratio of facilities to deposits have the highest long-term effect and also have a high contribution to explaining the changes in banks' non-confirmatory behavior in determining the interest rate on deposits.

Keywords: Non-conformity behavior, Ponzi game, panel vector autoregression, nonperforming loans.

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841 Transportation Mode Choice Analysis for Accessibility of the Mehrabad International Airport by Statistical Models

Authors: N. Mirzaei Varzeghani, M. Saffarzadeh, A. Naderan, A. Taheri

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Countries are progressing, and the world's busiest airports see year-on-year increases in travel demand. Passenger acceptability of an airport depends on the airport's appeals, which may include one of these routes between the city and the airport, as well as the facilities to reach them. One of the critical roles of transportation planners is to predict future transportation demand so that an integrated, multi-purpose system can be provided and diverse modes of transportation (rail, air, and land) can be delivered to a destination like an airport. In this study, 356 questionnaires were filled out in person over six days. First, the attraction of business and non-business trips was studied using data and a linear regression model. Lower travel costs, more passengers aged 55 and older using this airport, and other factors are essential for business trips. Non-business travelers, on the other hand, have prioritized using personal vehicles to get to the airport and ensuring convenient access to the airport. Business travelers are also less price-sensitive than non-business travelers regarding airport travel. Furthermore, carrying additional luggage (for example, more than one suitcase per person) undoubtedly decreases the attractiveness of public transit. Afterward, based on the manner and purpose of the trip, the locations with the highest trip generation to the airport were identified. The most famous district in Tehran was District 2, with 23 visits, while the most popular mode of transportation was an online taxi, with 12 trips from that location. Then, significant variables in separation and behavior of travel methods to access the airport were investigated for all systems. In this scenario, the most crucial factor is the time it takes to get to the airport, followed by the method's user-friendliness as a component of passenger preference. It has also been demonstrated that enhancing public transportation trip times reduces private transportation's market share, including taxicabs. Based on the responses of personal and semi-public vehicles, the desire of passengers to approach the airport via public transportation systems was explored to enhance present techniques and develop new strategies for providing the most efficient modes of transportation. Using the binary model, it was clear that business travelers and people who had already driven to the airport were the least likely to change.

Keywords: Multimodal transportation, travel behavior, demand modeling, statistical models.

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840 Territorial Availability of Social and Economic Infrastructure in Kazakhstan: Comparative Analysis of Urban and Rural Households

Authors: Nazym Shedenova, Aigul Beimisheva

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The market transformation in Kazakhstan during the last two decades has essentially strengthened a gap between development of urban and rural areas. Implementation of market institutes, transition from public financing to paid rendering of social services, change of forms of financing of social and economic infrastructure have led to strengthening of an economic inequality of social groups, including growth of stratification of the city and the village. Sociological survey of urban and rural households in Almaty city and villages of Almaty region has been carried out within the international research project “Livelihoods Strategies of Private Households in Central Asia: A Rural–Urban Comparison in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan" (Germany, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan). The analysis of statistical data and results of sociological research of urban and rural households allows us to reveal issues of territorial development, to investigate an availability of medical, educational and other services in the city and the village, to reveal an evaluation urban and rural dwellers of living conditions, to compare economic strategies of households in the city and the village.

Keywords: Urban and rural households, social and economic infrastructure, territorial availability.

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839 Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System for Financial Trading using Intraday Seasonality Observation Model

Authors: A. Kablan

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The prediction of financial time series is a very complicated process. If the efficient market hypothesis holds, then the predictability of most financial time series would be a rather controversial issue, due to the fact that the current price contains already all available information in the market. This paper extends the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for High Frequency Trading which is an expert system that is capable of using fuzzy reasoning combined with the pattern recognition capability of neural networks to be used in financial forecasting and trading in high frequency. However, in order to eliminate unnecessary input in the training phase a new event based volatility model was proposed. Taking volatility and the scaling laws of financial time series into consideration has brought about the development of the Intraday Seasonality Observation Model. This new model allows the observation of specific events and seasonalities in data and subsequently removes any unnecessary data. This new event based volatility model provides the ANFIS system with more accurate input and has increased the overall performance of the system.

Keywords: Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference system, High Frequency Trading, Intraday Seasonality Observation Model.

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838 Levenberg-Marquardt Algorithm for Karachi Stock Exchange Share Rates Forecasting

Authors: Syed Muhammad Aqil Burney, Tahseen Ahmed Jilani, C. Ardil

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Financial forecasting is an example of signal processing problems. A number of ways to train/learn the network are available. We have used Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for error back-propagation for weight adjustment. Pre-processing of data has reduced much of the variation at large scale to small scale, reducing the variation of training data.

Keywords: Gradient descent method, jacobian matrix.Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, quadratic error surfaces,

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837 Evaluating Portfolio Performance by Highlighting Network Property and the Sharpe Ratio in the Stock Market

Authors: Zahra Hatami, Hesham Ali, David Volkman

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Selecting a portfolio for investing is a crucial decision for individuals and legal entities. In the last two decades, with economic globalization, a stream of financial innovations has rushed to the aid of financial institutions. The importance of selecting stocks for the portfolio is always a challenging task for investors. This study aims to create a financial network to identify optimal portfolios using network centralities metrics. This research presents a community detection technique of superior stocks that can be described as an optimal stock portfolio to be used by investors. By using the advantages of a network and its property in extracted communities, a group of stocks was selected for each of the various time periods. The performance of the optimal portfolios was compared to the famous index. Their Sharpe ratio was calculated in a timely manner to evaluate their profit for making decisions. The analysis shows that the selected potential portfolio from stocks with low centrality measurement can outperform the market; however, they have a lower Sharpe ratio than stocks with high centrality scores. In other words, stocks with low centralities could outperform the S&P500 yet have a lower Sharpe ratio than high central stocks.

Keywords: Portfolio management performance, network analysis, centrality measurements, Sharpe ratio.

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836 Self-Perceived Employability of Students of International Relations of University of Warmia and Mazury in Poland

Authors: Marzena Świgoń

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Nowadays, graduates should be prepared for serious challenges in the internal and external labor market. The notion that a degree is a “passport to employment” has been relegated to the past. In the last few years a phenomenon in the form of the increasing unemployment of highly educated young people in EU countries, including Poland has been observed. Empirical studies were conducted among Polish students in the scope of the so-called self-perceived employability review. In this study, a special scale was used which consisted of 19 statements regarding five components: student’s perception of university; field of study; self-belief; state of the external labor market; and, personal knowledge management. The respondent group consisted of final-year master’s students of International Relations at the University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Poland. The findings of the empirical studies were compiled using statistical methods: descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. In general, in light of the conducted studies, the self-perceived employability of the Polish students was not high. Limitations of the studies were discussed, as well as the implications for future research in the scope of the students’ employability.

Keywords: Self-perceived employability, students of international relations, university education.

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835 SAĞLIK-NET Project in Turkey and HL7 v3 Implementation

Authors: K. Turhan, B. Kurt, E. Uzun

Abstract:

This paper describes Clinical Document Architecture Release Two (CDA R2) standard and a client application for messaging with SAĞLIK-NET project developed by The Ministry of Health of Turkey. CDA R2 , developed by Health Level 7 (HL7) organization and approved by American National Standards Institute (ANSI) in 2004, to standardize medical information to be able to share semantically and syntactically. In this study, a client application compatible with HL7 V3 for a project named SAĞLIKNET, aimed to build a National Health Information System by Turkey. Moreover, CDA conformance of this application will also be evaluated.

Keywords: HL7 V3, CDA, Interoperability, Web Service.

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834 Trustworthy in Virtual Organization

Authors: Abdolhamid Fetanat, Mehdi Naghian Feshaareki

Abstract:

In open settings, the participants in virtual organization are autonomous and there is no central authority to ensure the felicity of their interactions. When agents interact in such settings, each relies upon being able to model the trustworthiness of the agents with whom it interacts. Fundamentally, such models must consider the past behavior of the other parties in order to predict their future behavior. Further, it is sensible for the agents to share information via referrals to trustworthy agents. In this article, trust is a bet on the future contingent actions of others" and enumerates six major factors supporting it: (1) reputation, (2) performance, (3) appearance, (4) accountability, (5) precommitment, and (6) contextual facilitation.

Keywords: Trustworthy, trust, virtual organization.

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833 Price Prediction Line, Investment Signals and Limit Conditions Applied for the German Financial Market

Authors: Cristian Păuna

Abstract:

In the first decades of the 21st century, in the electronic trading environment, algorithmic capital investments became the primary tool to make a profit by speculations in financial markets. A significant number of traders, private or institutional investors are participating in the capital markets every day using automated algorithms. The autonomous trading software is today a considerable part in the business intelligence system of any modern financial activity. The trading decisions and orders are made automatically by computers using different mathematical models. This paper will present one of these models called Price Prediction Line. A mathematical algorithm will be revealed to build a reliable trend line, which is the base for limit conditions and automated investment signals, the core for a computerized investment system. The paper will guide how to apply these tools to generate entry and exit investment signals, limit conditions to build a mathematical filter for the investment opportunities, and the methodology to integrate all of these in automated investment software. The paper will also present trading results obtained for the leading German financial market index with the presented methods to analyze and to compare different automated investment algorithms. It was found that a specific mathematical algorithm can be optimized and integrated into an automated trading system with good and sustained results for the leading German Market. Investment results will be compared in order to qualify the presented model. In conclusion, a 1:6.12 risk was obtained to reward ratio applying the trigonometric method to the DAX Deutscher Aktienindex on 24 months investment. These results are superior to those obtained with other similar models as this paper reveal. The general idea sustained by this paper is that the Price Prediction Line model presented is a reliable capital investment methodology that can be successfully applied to build an automated investment system with excellent results.

Keywords: Algorithmic trading, automated investment system, DAX Deutscher Aktienindex.

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832 University Students’ Perception on Public Transit in Dhaka City

Authors: Md. Mosabbir Pasha, Ijaj Mahmud Chowdhury, M. A. Afrahim Bhuiyan

Abstract:

With the increasing population and intensive land use, huge traffic demand is generating worldwide both in developing and developed countries. As a developing country, Bangladesh is also facing the same problem in recent years by producing huge numbers of daily trips. As a matter of fact, extensive traffic demand is increasing day by day. Also, transport system in Dhaka is heterogeneous, reflecting the heterogeneity in the socio-economic and land use patterns. Trips produced here are for different purposes such as work, business, educational etc. Due to the significant concentration of educational institutions a large share of the trips are generated by educational purpose. And one of the major percentages of educational trips is produced by university going students and most of them are travelled by car, bus, train, taxi, rickshaw etc. The aim of the study was to find out the university students’ perception on public transit ridership. A survey was conducted among 330 students from eight different universities. It was found out that 26% of the trips produced by university going students are travelled by public bus service and only 5% are by train. Percentage of car share is 16% and 12% of the trips are travelled by private taxi. It has been observed from the study, students those who prefer bus instead of other options, 42 percent of their family resides outside Dhaka. And those who prefer walking, of them, over 40 percent students’ family reside outside of Dhaka and of them over 85 percent students have a tendency to live in a mess. On the contrary, students travelling by car represents, most of their family reside in Dhaka. The study also revealed that the most important reason that restricts students not to use public transit is poor service. Negative attitudes such as discomfort, uneasiness in using public transit also reduces the usage of public transit. The poor waiting area is another major cause of not using public transit. Insufficient security also plays a significant role in not using public transit. On the contrary, the fare is not a problem for students those who use public transit as a mode of transportation. Students also think stations are not far away from their home or institution and they do not need to wait long for the buses or trains. It was also found accessibility to public transit is moderate.

Keywords: Traffic demand, fare, poor service, public transit ridership.

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831 Development of Mechanisms of Value Creation and Risk Management Organization in the Conditions of Transformation of the Economy of Russia

Authors: Mikhail V. Khachaturyan, Inga A. Koryagina, Eugenia V. Klicheva

Abstract:

In modern conditions, scientific judgment of problems in developing mechanisms of value creation and risk management acquires special relevance. Formation of economic knowledge has resulted in the constant analysis of consumer behavior for all players from national and world markets. Effective mechanisms development of the demand analysis, crucial for consumer's characteristics of future production, and the risks connected with the development of this production are the main objectives of control systems in modern conditions. The modern period of economic development is characterized by a high level of globalization of business and rigidity of competition. At the same time, the considerable share of new products and services costs has a non-material intellectual nature. The most successful in Russia is the contemporary development of small innovative firms. Such firms, through their unique technologies and new approaches to process management, which form the basis of their intellectual capital, can show flexibility and succeed in the market. As a rule, such enterprises should have very variable structure excluding the tough scheme of submission and demanding essentially new incentives for inclusion of personnel in innovative activity. Realization of similar structures, as well as a new approach to management, can be constructed based on value-oriented management which is directed to gradual change of consciousness of personnel and formation from groups of adherents included in the solution of the general innovative tasks. At the same time, valuable changes can gradually capture not only innovative firm staff, but also the structure of its corporate partners. Introduction of new technologies is the significant factor contributing to the development of new valuable imperatives and acceleration of the changing values systems of the organization. It relates to the fact that new technologies change the internal environment of the organization in a way that the old system of values becomes inefficient in new conditions. Introduction of new technologies often demands change in the structure of employee’s interaction and training in their new principles of work. During the introduction of new technologies and the accompanying change in the value system, the structure of the management of the values of the organization is changing. This is due to the need to attract more staff to justify and consolidate the new value system and bring their view into the motivational potential of the new value system of the organization.

Keywords: Value, risk, creation, problems, organization.

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