Search results for: Irregular binary series
1004 The Variation of Software Development Productivity 1995-2005
Authors: Zhizhong Jiang, Peter Naudé, Craig Comstock
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Software development has experienced remarkable progress in the past decade. However, due to the rising complexity and magnitude of the project the development productivity has not been consistently improved. By analyzing the latest ISBSG data repository with 4106 projects, we discovered that software development productivity has actually undergone irregular variations between the years 1995 and 2005. Considering the factors significant to the productivity, we found its variations are primarily caused by the variations of average team size and the unbalanced uses of the less productive language 3GL.Keywords: Productivity, Programming Languages, SoftwareEngineering, Team Size.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15311003 Quantitative Estimation of Periodicities in Lyari River Flow Routing
Authors: Rana Khalid Naeem, Asif Mansoor
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The hydrologic time series data display periodic structure and periodic autoregressive process receives considerable attention in modeling of such series. In this communication long term record of monthly waste flow of Lyari river is utilized to quantify by using PAR modeling technique. The parameters of model are estimated by using Frances & Paap methodology. This study shows that periodic autoregressive model of order 2 is the most parsimonious model for assessing periodicity in waste flow of the river. A careful statistical analysis of residuals of PAR (2) model is used for establishing goodness of fit. The forecast by using proposed model confirms significance and effectiveness of the model.Keywords: Diagnostic checks, Lyari river, Model selection, Monthly waste flow, Periodicity, Periodic autoregressive model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16481002 Forecasting Rainfall in Thailand: A Case Study of Nakhon Ratchasima Province
Authors: N. Sopipan
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In this paper, we study the rainfall using a time series for weather stations in Nakhon Ratchasima province in Thailand by various statistical methods to enable us to analyse the behaviour of rainfall in the study areas. Time-series analysis is an important tool in modelling and forecasting rainfall. The ARIMA and Holt-Winter models were built on the basis of exponential smoothing. All the models proved to be adequate. Therefore it is possible to give information that can help decision makers establish strategies for the proper planning of agriculture, drainage systems and other water resource applications in Nakhon Ratchasima province. We obtained the best performance from forecasting with the ARIMA Model(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.
Keywords: ARIMA Models, Exponential Smoothing, Holt- Winter model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 26831001 Effects of Electric Potential on Thermo-Mechanical Behavior of Functionally Graded Piezoelectric Hollow Cylinder under Non-Axisymmetric Loads
Authors: Amir Atrian, Javad Jafari Fesharaki, Gh. Hossein Majzoobi, Mahsa Sheidaee
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The analytical solution of functionally graded piezoelectric hollow cylinder which is under radial electric potential and non-axisymmetric thermo-mechanical loads, are presented in this paper. Using complex Fourier series and estimation of power law for variations of material characterizations through the thickness, the electro thermo mechanical behavior of the FGPM cylinder is obtained. The stress and displacement distributions and the effect of electric potential field on the cylinder behavior are also presented and some applicable results are offered at the end of the paper.Keywords: Analytical, FGM, Fourier series, Non-axisymmetric, Piezoelectric, Thermo-elasticity
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18391000 The Improvement of 28-day Compressive Strength of Self Compacting Concrete Made by Different Percentages of Recycled Concrete Aggregates using Nano-Silica
Authors: S. Salkhordeh, P. Golbazi, H. Amini
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In this study two series of self compacting concrete mixtures were prepared with 100% coarse recycled concrete aggregates and different percentages of 0%, 20%, 40%, 60%, 80% and 100% fine recycled concrete aggregates. In series I and II the water to binder ratios were 0.50 and 0.45, respectively. The cement content was kept 350 3 m kg for those mixtures that don't have any Nano-Silica. To improve the compressive strength of samples, Nano- Silica replaced with 10% of cement weight in concrete mixtures. By doing the tests, the results showed that, adding Nano-silica to the samples with less percentage of fine recycled concrete aggregates, lead to more increase on the compressive strength.Keywords: Compressive Strength, Nano-Silica, RecycledConcrete Aggregates, Self Compacting Concrete.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1953999 Development of Integrated GIS Interface for Characteristics of Regional Daily Flow
Authors: Ju Young Lee, Jung-Seok Yang, Jaeyoung Choi
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The purpose of this paper primarily intends to develop GIS interface for estimating sequences of stream-flows at ungauged stations based on known flows at gauged stations. The integrated GIS interface is composed of three major steps. The first, precipitation characteristics using statistical analysis is the procedure for making multiple linear regression equation to get the long term mean daily flow at ungauged stations. The independent variables in regression equation are mean daily flow and drainage area. Traditionally, mean flow data are generated by using Thissen polygon method. However, method for obtaining mean flow data can be selected by user such as Kriging, IDW (Inverse Distance Weighted), Spline methods as well as other traditional methods. At the second, flow duration curve (FDC) is computing at unguaged station by FDCs in gauged stations. Finally, the mean annual daily flow is computed by spatial interpolation algorithm. The third step is to obtain watershed/topographic characteristics. They are the most important factors which govern stream-flows. In summary, the simulated daily flow time series are compared with observed times series. The results using integrated GIS interface are closely similar and are well fitted each other. Also, the relationship between the topographic/watershed characteristics and stream flow time series is highly correlated.Keywords: Integrated GIS interface, spatial interpolation algorithm, FDC.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1510998 Performance Evaluation of Low Density Parity Check Codes
Authors: Othman O. Khalifa, Sheroz khan, Mohamad Zaid, Muhamad Nawawi
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This paper mainly about the study on one of the widely used error correcting codes that is Low parity check Codes (LDPC). In this paper, the Regular LDPC code has been discussed The LDPC codes explained in this paper is about the Regular Binary LDPC codes or the Gallager.Keywords: LDPC, channel coding.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2824997 Fast and Accuracy Control Chart Pattern Recognition using a New cluster-k-Nearest Neighbor
Authors: Samir Brahim Belhaouari
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By taking advantage of both k-NN which is highly accurate and K-means cluster which is able to reduce the time of classification, we can introduce Cluster-k-Nearest Neighbor as "variable k"-NN dealing with the centroid or mean point of all subclasses generated by clustering algorithm. In general the algorithm of K-means cluster is not stable, in term of accuracy, for that reason we develop another algorithm for clustering our space which gives a higher accuracy than K-means cluster, less subclass number, stability and bounded time of classification with respect to the variable data size. We find between 96% and 99.7 % of accuracy in the lassification of 6 different types of Time series by using K-means cluster algorithm and we find 99.7% by using the new clustering algorithm.Keywords: Pattern recognition, Time series, k-Nearest Neighbor, k-means cluster, Gaussian Mixture Model, Classification
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1965996 A Theory in Optimization of Ad-hoc Routing Algorithms
Authors: M. Kargar, F.Fartash, T. Saderi, M. Ebrahimi Dishabi
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In this paper optimization of routing in ad-hoc networks is surveyed and a new method for reducing the complexity of routing algorithms is suggested. Using binary matrices for each node in the network and updating it once the routing is done, helps nodes to stop repeating the routing protocols in each data transfer. The algorithm suggested can reduce the complexity of routing to the least amount possible.Keywords: Ad-hoc Networks, Algorithm, Protocol, RoutingTrain.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1672995 The Impact of Digital Inclusive Finance on the High-Quality Development of China's Export Trade
Authors: Yao Wu
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In the context of financial globalization, China has put forward the policy goal of high-quality development, and the digital economy, with its advantage of information resources, is driving China's export trade to achieve high-quality development. Due to the long-standing financing constraints of small and medium-sized export enterprises, how to expand the export scale of small and medium-sized enterprises has become a major threshold for the development of China's export trade. This paper firstly adopts the hierarchical analysis method to establish the evaluation system of high-quality development of China's export trade; secondly, the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2018 are selected for empirical analysis to establish the impact model of digital inclusive finance on the high-quality development of China's export trade; based on the analysis of the heterogeneous enterprise trade model, a mediating effect model is established to verify the mediating role of credit constraint in the development of high-quality export trade in China. Based on the above analysis, this paper concludes that inclusive digital finance, with its unique digital and inclusive nature, alleviates the credit constraint problem among SMEs, enhances the binary marginal effect of SMEs' exports, optimizes their export scale and structure, and promotes the high-quality development of regional and even national export trade. Finally, based on the findings of this paper, we propose insights and suggestions for inclusive digital finance to promote the high-quality development of export trade.
Keywords: Digital inclusive finance, high-quality development of export trade, fixed effects, binary marginal effects.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 707994 Quadrature Formula for Sampled Functions
Authors: Khalid Minaoui, Thierry Chonavel, Benayad Nsiri, Driss Aboutajdine
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This paper deals with efficient quadrature formulas involving functions that are observed only at fixed sampling points. The approach that we develop is derived from efficient continuous quadrature formulas, such as Gauss-Legendre or Clenshaw-Curtis quadrature. We select nodes at sampling positions that are as close as possible to those of the associated classical quadrature and we update quadrature weights accordingly. We supply the theoretical quadrature error formula for this new approach. We show on examples the potential gain of this approach.
Keywords: Gauss-Legendre, Clenshaw-Curtis, quadrature, Peano kernel, irregular sampling.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1417993 Application of Fourier Series Based Learning Control on Mechatronic Systems
Authors: Sandra Baßler, Peter Dünow, Mathias Marquardt
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A Fourier series based learning control (FSBLC) algorithm for tracking trajectories of mechanical systems with unknown nonlinearities is presented. Two processes are introduced to which the FSBLC with PD controller is applied. One is a simplified service robot capable of climbing stairs due to special wheels and the other is a propeller driven pendulum with nearly the same requirements on control. Additionally to the investigation of learning the feed forward for the desired trajectories some considerations on the implementation of such an algorithm on low cost microcontroller hardware are made. Simulations of the service robot as well as practical experiments on the pendulum show the capability of the used FSBLC algorithm to perform the task of improving control behavior for repetitive task of such mechanical systems.Keywords: Climbing stairs, FSBLC, ILC, Service robot.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1377992 Revisiting Domestication and Foreignisation Methods: Translating the Quran by the Hybrid Approach
Authors: Aladdin Al-Tarawneh
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The Quran, as it is the sacred book of Islam and considered the literal word of God (Allah) in Arabic, is highly translated into many languages; however, the foreignising or the literal approach excessively stains the quality and discredits the final product in the eyes of its receptors. Such an approach fails to capture the intended meaning of the Quran and to communicate it in any language. Therefore, this study is conducted to propose a different approach that seeks involving other ones according to a hybrid model. Indeed, this study challenges the binary adherence that is highly used in Translation Studies (TS) in general and in the translation of the Quran in particular. Drawing on the genuine fact that the Quran can be communicated in any language in terms of meaning, and the translation is not sacred; this paper approaches the translation of the Quran by blending different methods like domestication or foreignisation in a systematic way, avoiding the binary choice made by many translators. To reach this aim, the paper has a conceptual part that seeks to elucidate and clarify the main methods employed in TS, and criticise and modify them to propose the new hybrid approach (the hybrid model) for translating the Quran – that is, the deductive method. To support and validate the outcome of the previous part, a comparative model is employed in order to highlight the differences between the suggested translation and other widely used ones – that is, the inductive method. By applying this methodology, the paper proves that there is a deficiency of communicating the original meaning of the Quran in light of the foreignising approach. In conclusion, the paper suggests producing a Quran translation has to take into account the adoption of many techniques to express the meaning of the Quran as understood in the original, and to offer this understanding in English in the most native-like manner to serve the intended target readers.
Keywords: Quran translation, hybrid approach, domestication, foreignisation, hybrid model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1192991 Optimal Sizing of SSSC Controllers to Minimize Transmission Loss and a Novel Model of SSSC to Study Transient Response
Authors: A. M. El-Zonkoly
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In this paper, based on steady-state models of Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) devices, the sizing of static synchronous series compensator (SSSC) controllers in transmission network is formed as an optimization problem. The objective of this problem is to reduce the transmission losses in the network. The optimization problem is solved using particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique. The Newton-Raphson load flow algorithm is modified to consider the insertion of the SSSC devices in the network. A numerical example, illustrating the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, is introduced. In addition, a novel model of a 3- phase voltage source converter (VSC) that is suitable for series connected FACTS a controller is introduced. The model is verified by simulation using Power System Blockset (PSB) and Simulink software.Keywords: FACTS, Modeling, PSO, SSSC, Transmission lossreduction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2277990 Lamb Wave Wireless Communication in Healthy Plates Using Coherent Demodulation
Authors: Rudy Bahouth, Farouk Benmeddour, Emmanuel Moulin, Jamal Assaad
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Guided ultrasonic waves are used in Non-Destructive Testing and Structural Health Monitoring for inspection and damage detection. Recently, wireless data transmission using ultrasonic waves in solid metallic channels has gained popularity in some industrial applications such as nuclear, aerospace and smart vehicles. The idea is to find a good substitute for electromagnetic waves since they are highly attenuated near metallic components due to Faraday shielding. The proposed solution is to use ultrasonic guided waves such as Lamb waves as an information carrier due to their capability of propagation for long distances. In addition to this, valuable information about the health of the structure could be extracted simultaneously. In this work, the reliable frequency bandwidth for communication is extracted experimentally from dispersion curves at first. Then, an experimental platform for wireless communication using Lamb waves is described and built. After this, coherent demodulation algorithm used in telecommunications is tested for Amplitude Shift Keying, On-Off Keying and Binary Phase Shift Keying modulation techniques. Signal processing parameters such as threshold choice, number of cycles per bit and Bit Rate are optimized. Experimental results are compared based on the average bit error percentage. Results has shown high sensitivity to threshold selection for Amplitude Shift Keying and On-Off Keying techniques resulting a Bit Rate decrease. Binary Phase Shift Keying technique shows the highest stability and data rate between all tested modulation techniques.
Keywords: Lamb Wave Communication, wireless communication, coherent demodulation, bit error percentage.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 562989 A Study on Changing of Energy-Saving Performance of GHP Air Conditioning System with Time-Series Variation
Authors: Ying Xin, Shigeki Kametani
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This paper deals the energy saving performance of GHP (Gas engine heat pump) air conditioning system has improved with time-series variation. There are two types of air conditioning systems, VRF (Variable refrigerant flow) and central cooling and heating system. VRF is classified as EHP (Electric driven heat pump) and GHP. EHP drives the compressor with electric motor. GHP drives the compressor with the gas engine. The electric consumption of GHP is less than one tenth of EHP does.
In this study, the energy consumption data of GHP installed the junior high schools was collected. An annual and monthly energy consumption per rated thermal output power of each apparatus was calculated, and then their energy efficiency was analyzed. From these data, we investigated improvement of the energy saving of the GHP air conditioning system by the change in the generation.
Keywords: Energy-saving, VRF, GHP, EHP, Air Conditioning System.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1884988 A Model Predictive Control and Time Series Forecasting Framework for Supply Chain Management
Authors: Philip Doganis, Eleni Aggelogiannaki, Haralambos Sarimveis
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Model Predictive Control has been previously applied to supply chain problems with promising results; however hitherto proposed systems possessed no information on future demand. A forecasting methodology will surely promote the efficiency of control actions by providing insight on the future. A complete supply chain management framework that is based on Model Predictive Control (MPC) and Time Series Forecasting will be presented in this paper. The proposed framework will be tested on industrial data in order to assess the efficiency of the method and the impact of forecast accuracy on overall control performance of the supply chain. To this end, forecasting methodologies with different characteristics will be implemented on test data to generate forecasts that will serve as input to the Model Predictive Control module.Keywords: Forecasting, Model predictive control, production planning.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1976987 Improvement of Data Transfer over Simple Object Access Protocol (SOAP)
Authors: Khaled Ahmed Kadouh, Kamal Ali Albashiri
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This paper presents a designed algorithm involves improvement of transferring data over Simple Object Access Protocol (SOAP). The aim of this work is to establish whether using SOAP in exchanging XML messages has any added advantages or not. The results showed that XML messages without SOAP take longer time and consume more memory, especially with binary data.
Keywords: JAX-WS, SMTP, SOAP, Web service, XML.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2123986 Analysis of Temperature Change under Global Warming Impact using Empirical Mode Decomposition
Authors: Md. Khademul Islam Molla, Akimasa Sumi, M. Sayedur Rahman
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The empirical mode decomposition (EMD) represents any time series into a finite set of basis functions. The bases are termed as intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) which are mutually orthogonal containing minimum amount of cross-information. The EMD successively extracts the IMFs with the highest local frequencies in a recursive way, which yields effectively a set low-pass filters based entirely on the properties exhibited by the data. In this paper, EMD is applied to explore the properties of the multi-year air temperature and to observe its effects on climate change under global warming. This method decomposes the original time-series into intrinsic time scale. It is capable of analyzing nonlinear, non-stationary climatic time series that cause problems to many linear statistical methods and their users. The analysis results show that the mode of EMD presents seasonal variability. The most of the IMFs have normal distribution and the energy density distribution of the IMFs satisfies Chi-square distribution. The IMFs are more effective in isolating physical processes of various time-scales and also statistically significant. The analysis results also show that the EMD method provides a good job to find many characteristics on inter annual climate. The results suggest that climate fluctuations of every single element such as temperature are the results of variations in the global atmospheric circulation.
Keywords: Empirical mode decomposition, instantaneous frequency, Hilbert spectrum, Chi-square distribution, anthropogenic impact.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2149985 Using Time-Series NDVI to Model Land Cover Change: A Case Study in the Berg River Catchment Area, Western Cape, South Africa
Authors: A. S. Adesuyi, Z. Munch
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This study investigates the use of a time-series of MODIS NDVI data to identify agricultural land cover change on an annual time step (2007 - 2012) and characterize the trend. Following an ISODATA classification of the MODIS imagery to selectively mask areas not agriculture or semi-natural, NDVI signatures were created to identify areas cereals and vineyards with the aid of ancillary, pictometry and field sample data for 2010. The NDVI signature curve and training samples were used to create a decision tree model in WEKA 3.6.9 using decision tree classifier (J48) algorithm; Model 1 including ISODATA classification and Model 2 not. These two models were then used to classify all data for the study area for 2010, producing land cover maps with classification accuracies of 77% and 80% for Model 1 and 2 respectively. Model 2 was subsequently used to create land cover classification and change detection maps for all other years. Subtle changes and areas of consistency (unchanged) were observed in the agricultural classes and crop practices. Over the years as predicted by the land cover classification. Forty one percent of the catchment comprised of cereals with 35% possibly following a crop rotation system. Vineyards largely remained constant with only one percent conversion to vineyard from other land cover classes.Keywords: Change detection, Land cover, NDVI, time-series.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2291984 Optimizing Approach for Sifting Process to Solve a Common Type of Empirical Mode Decomposition Mode Mixing
Authors: Saad Al-Baddai, Karema Al-Subari, Elmar Lang, Bernd Ludwig
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Empirical mode decomposition (EMD), a new data-driven of time-series decomposition, has the advantage of supposing that a time series is non-linear or non-stationary, as is implicitly achieved in Fourier decomposition. However, the EMD suffers of mode mixing problem in some cases. The aim of this paper is to present a solution for a common type of signals causing of EMD mode mixing problem, in case a signal suffers of an intermittency. By an artificial example, the solution shows superior performance in terms of cope EMD mode mixing problem comparing with the conventional EMD and Ensemble Empirical Mode decomposition (EEMD). Furthermore, the over-sifting problem is also completely avoided; and computation load is reduced roughly six times compared with EEMD, an ensemble number of 50.Keywords: Empirical mode decomposition, mode mixing, sifting process, over-sifting.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 992983 Forces Association-Based Active Contour
Authors: Aicha Baya Goumeidane, Nafaa. Nacereddine
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A welded structure must be inspected to guarantee that the weld quality meets the design requirements to assure safety and reliability. However, X-ray image analyses and defect recognition with the computer vision techniques are very complex. Most difficulties lie in finding the small, irregular defects in poor contrast images which requires pre processing to image, extract, and classify features from strong background noise. This paper addresses the issue of designing methodology to extract defect from noisy background radiograph with image processing. Based on the use of actives contours this methodology seems to give good results
Keywords: Welding, Radiography, Computer vision, Active contour.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1888982 On the Factors Influencing the Competitiveness of Chinese Service Trade after Entering WTO
Authors: Ying Wang
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Service trade is an important force of influencing economic development. A review on the related literatures is done firstly. Then through the construction of a Diamond Model, the main factors which influence the competitiveness of Chinese service trade are determined. With three competitiveness indexes served as the reference series respectively, the influencing factors served as the comparable series, three grey incidence models are then built up to conduct an empirical analysis on the main factors influencing the competitiveness of service trade after China entering WTO. The result indicates that urbanization level, open degree of service industry and foreign direct investment have larger impacts on Chinese service trade competitiveness, followed in turn by GDP in service industry and human capital, while commodity trade has the minimum impact. Further discussion provides train of thought for the upgrade of Chinese service trade competitiveness.
Keywords: Service Trade, Competitiveness, Diamond Model, Grey Incidence Model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1770981 Validation Testing for Temporal Neural Networks for RBF Recognition
Authors: Khaled E. A. Negm
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A neuron can emit spikes in an irregular time basis and by averaging over a certain time window one would ignore a lot of information. It is known that in the context of fast information processing there is no sufficient time to sample an average firing rate of the spiking neurons. The present work shows that the spiking neurons are capable of computing the radial basis functions by storing the relevant information in the neurons' delays. One of the fundamental findings of the this research also is that when using overlapping receptive fields to encode the data patterns it increases the network-s clustering capacity. The clustering algorithm that is discussed here is interesting from computer science and neuroscience point of view as well as from a perspective.
Keywords: Temporal Neurons, RBF Recognition, Perturbation, On Line Recognition.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1492980 Forecasting Exchange Rate between Thai Baht and the US Dollar Using Time Series Analysis
Authors: Kunya Bowornchockchai
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The objective of this research is to forecast the monthly exchange rate between Thai baht and the US dollar and to compare two forecasting methods. The methods are Box-Jenkins’ method and Holt’s method. Results show that the Box-Jenkins’ method is the most suitable method for the monthly Exchange Rate between Thai Baht and the US Dollar. The suitable forecasting model is ARIMA (1,1,0) without constant and the forecasting equation is Yt = Yt-1 + 0.3691 (Yt-1 - Yt-2) When Yt is the time series data at time t, respectively.Keywords: Box–Jenkins Method, Holt’s Method, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1709979 Using Artificial Neural Network to Forecast Groundwater Depth in Union County Well
Authors: Zahra Ghadampour, Gholamreza Rakhshandehroo
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A concern that researchers usually face in different applications of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is determination of the size of effective domain in time series. In this paper, trial and error method was used on groundwater depth time series to determine the size of effective domain in the series in an observation well in Union County, New Jersey, U.S. different domains of 20, 40, 60, 80, 100, and 120 preceding day were examined and the 80 days was considered as effective length of the domain. Data sets in different domains were fed to a Feed Forward Back Propagation ANN with one hidden layer and the groundwater depths were forecasted. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the correlation factor (R2) of estimated and observed groundwater depths for all domains were determined. In general, groundwater depth forecast improved, as evidenced by lower RMSEs and higher R2s, when the domain length increased from 20 to 120. However, 80 days was selected as the effective domain because the improvement was less than 1% beyond that. Forecasted ground water depths utilizing measured daily data (set #1) and data averaged over the effective domain (set #2) were compared. It was postulated that more accurate nature of measured daily data was the reason for a better forecast with lower RMSE (0.1027 m compared to 0.255 m) in set #1. However, the size of input data in this set was 80 times the size of input data in set #2; a factor that may increase the computational effort unpredictably. It was concluded that 80 daily data may be successfully utilized to lower the size of input data sets considerably, while maintaining the effective information in the data set.Keywords: Neural networks, groundwater depth, forecast.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2516978 Optimized Calculation of Hourly Price Forward Curve (HPFC)
Authors: Ahmed Abdolkhalig
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This paper examines many mathematical methods for molding the hourly price forward curve (HPFC); the model will be constructed by numerous regression methods, like polynomial regression, radial basic function neural networks & a furrier series. Examination the models goodness of fit will be done by means of statistical & graphical tools. The criteria for choosing the model will depend on minimize the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), using the correlation analysis approach for the regression analysis the optimal model will be distinct, which are robust against model misspecification. Learning & supervision technique employed to determine the form of the optimal parameters corresponding to each measure of overall loss. By using all the numerical methods that mentioned previously; the explicit expressions for the optimal model derived and the optimal designs will be implemented.Keywords: Forward curve, furrier series, regression, radial basic function neural networks.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 4230977 Deterministic Random Number Generators for Online Applications
Authors: Natarajan Vijayarangan, Prasanna S. Bidare
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Cryptography, Image watermarking and E-banking are filled with apparent oxymora and paradoxes. Random sequences are used as keys to encrypt information to be used as watermark during embedding the watermark and also to extract the watermark during detection. Also, the keys are very much utilized for 24x7x365 banking operations. Therefore a deterministic random sequence is very much useful for online applications. In order to obtain the same random sequence, we need to supply the same seed to the generator. Many researchers have used Deterministic Random Number Generators (DRNGs) for cryptographic applications and Pseudo Noise Random sequences (PNs) for watermarking. Even though, there are some weaknesses in PN due to attacks, the research community used it mostly in digital watermarking. On the other hand, DRNGs have not been widely used in online watermarking due to its computational complexity and non-robustness. Therefore, we have invented a new design of generating DRNG using Pi-series to make it useful for online Cryptographic, Digital watermarking and Banking applications.
Keywords: E-tokens, LFSR, non-linear, Pi series, pseudo random number.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2010976 A Prediction Method for Large-Size Event Occurrences in the Sandpile Model
Authors: S. Channgam, A. Sae-Tang, T. Termsaithong
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In this research, the occurrences of large size events in various system sizes of the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model are considered. The system sizes (square lattice) of model considered here are 25×25, 50×50, 75×75 and 100×100. The cross-correlation between the ratio of sites containing 3 grain time series and the large size event time series for these 4 system sizes are also analyzed. Moreover, a prediction method of the large-size event for the 50×50 system size is also introduced. Lastly, it can be shown that this prediction method provides a slightly higher efficiency than random predictions.
Keywords: Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model, avalanches, cross-correlation, prediction method.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1174975 Investigation of Inter Feeder Power Flow Regulator: Load Sharing Mode
Authors: Ahmed Hossam-Eldin, Ahmed Elserougi, Ahmed Massoud, Shehab Ahmed
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The Inter feeder Power Flow Regulator (IFPFR) proposed in this paper consists of several voltage source inverters with common dc bus; each inverter is connected in series with one of different independent distribution feeders in the power system. This paper is concerned with how to transfer power between the feeders for load sharing purpose. The power controller of each inverter injects the power (for sending feeder) or absorbs the power (for receiving feeder) via injecting suitable voltage; this voltage injection is simulated by voltage drop across series virtual impedance, the impedance value is selected to achieve the concept of power exchange between the feeders without perturbing the load voltage magnitude of each feeder. In this paper a new control scheme for load sharing using IFPFR is proposed.Keywords: IFPFR, Load sharing, Power transfer
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1623