M. Pollar

Publications

3 Morphometric Analysis of Tor tambroides by Stepwise Discriminant and Neural Network Analysis

Authors: M. Pollar, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee

Abstract:

The population structure of the Tor tambroides was investigated with morphometric data (i.e. morphormetric measurement and truss measurement). A morphometric analysis was conducted to compare specimens from three waterfalls: Sunanta, Nan Chong Fa and Wang Muang waterfalls at Khao Nan National Park, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Southern Thailand. The results of stepwise discriminant analysis on seven morphometric variables and 21 truss variables per individual were the same as from a neural network. Fish from three waterfalls were separated into three groups based on their morphometric measurements. The morphometric data shows that the nerual network model performed better than the stepwise discriminant analysis.

Keywords: morphometric, Tor tambroides, Stepwise Discriminant Analysis, Neural Network Analysis

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2 Predicting DHF Incidence in Northern Thailand using Time Series Analysis Technique

Authors: S. Wongkoon, M. Pollar, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee

Abstract:

This study aimed at developing a forecasting model on the number of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) incidence in Northern Thailand using time series analysis. We developed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the data collected between 2003-2006 and then validated the models using the data collected between January-September 2007. The results showed that the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values. The most suitable model was the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model with a Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 12.2931 and a Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) of 8.91713. The SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model fitting was adequate for the data with the Portmanteau statistic Q20 = 8.98644 ( x20,95= 27.5871, P>0.05). This indicated that there was no significant autocorrelation between residuals at different lag times in the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model.

Keywords: Dengue, Time Series Analysis, SARIMA, Northern Thailand

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1 Spanner Barb at Thepchana Waterfall, Khao Nan National Park, Thailand

Authors: S. Sutin, M. Pollar, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee

Abstract:

This study investigated morphology of the Spanner Barb (Puntius lateristriga Valenciennes, 1842) and water quality at Thepchana waterfall. This study was conducted at Thepchana Waterfall, Khao Nan National Park from March to May 2007. There were 40 Spanner Barb collected with 20 males and 20 females. Males had an average of 5.57 cm in standard length, 6.62 cm in total length and 5.18 g in total body weight. Females had an average of 7.25 cm in standard length, 8.24 cm in total length and 10.96 g in total body weight. The length (L) – weight (W) relationships for combining sexes, males and females were LogW = -2.137 + 3.355logL, log W = -0.068 + 3.297logL, and log W = -2.068 + 3.297logL, respectively. The Spanner Barb were smaller size fish with a compressed form; terminal mouth; villiform teeth; ctenoid scale; concave tail; general body color yellowish olive, with slight reddish tint to fins; vertical band beginning below dorsal and horizontal stripe from base of tail almost to vertical band. They also had a vertical band midway between the eye and first vertical band. There was a black spot above anal fin. The bladder looked like J-shape. Inside of the bladder was found small insects and insect lava. The body length and the bowels length was 1:1 ratio. The water temperature ranged from 25.00 – 27.00 °C which was appropriate for their habitat characteristics. Acid - alkalinity ranged from 6.65 – 6.90 mg/l. Dissolved oxygen ranged from 4.55 – 4.70 mg/l. Water hardness ranged from 31.00 – 48.00 mg/l. The amount of ammonia was about 0.25 mg/l.

Keywords: Morphology, Water Quality, Spanner barb

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