Asif Mansoor

Publications

8 Vaccinated Susceptible Infected and Recovered (VSIR) Mathematical Model to Study the Effect of Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) Vaccine and the Disease Stability Analysis

Authors: Muhammad Shahid, Asif Mansoor, Muhammad Liaquat Ali, Nasir-uddin Khan, Mushtaq Hussain

Abstract:

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading cause of infectious mortality. It is primarily transmitted by the respiratory route, individuals with active disease may infect others through airborne particles which releases when they cough, talk, or sing and subsequently inhale by others. In order to study the effect of the Bacilli Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine after vaccination of TB patient, a Vaccinated Susceptible Infected and Recovered (VSIR) mathematical model is being developed to achieve the desired objectives. The mathematical model, so developed, shall be used to quantify the effect of BCG Vaccine to protect the immigrant young adult person. Moreover, equations are to be established for the disease endemic and free equilibrium states and subsequently utilized in disease stability analysis. The stability analysis will give a complete picture of disease annihilation from the total population if the total removal rate from the infectious group should be greater than total number of dormant infections produced throughout infectious period.

Keywords: Bacillus Calmette-Guerin vaccine, disease-free equilibrium state, VSIR Quantification, disease stability analysis

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7 Looking for a Favorable Central Place for the Establishment of Educational and Health Care Centre to Equally Facilitate Both Genders in Taluka Kunri of District Umerkot, Sindh, Pakistan

Authors: Muhammad Shahid, Asif Mansoor, Muhammad Liaquat Ali, Nasir-uddin Khan, Mushtaq Hussain

Abstract:

Population in rural areas are scattered in the form of different villages or settlements. The proper selection of land to launch any educational or health activities to equally facilitate both the genders is the sticky situation, both for Govt. and Private organizations. Govt. spends substantial funds for the establishment of education institution/health centre at the place which is feasible and accessible to general public. However for specific gender, the gender population is also considered so that both the gender may be benefited equally. In this research, efforts have been made to illustrate how one can choose or locate the best central place/ area in Taluka Kunri of district Umerkot Sindh Pakistan where the Educational or Health activity is to be initiated. For the purpose the concept of centre of mass theorem is used as a tool to develop mathematical model, subsequently utilize in achieving the objectives.

Keywords: Centre of mass theorem, Establishment of technical/ vocational/ health care centre, Gender population of taluka Kunri of District Umerkot, Graphical interpretation of town committee/villages

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6 Exact Solutions of Steady Plane Flows of an Incompressible Fluid of Variable Viscosity Using (ξ, ψ)- Or (η, ψ)- Coordinates

Authors: Aurangzaib, Rana Khalid Naeem, Asif Mansoor, Waseem Ahmed Khan

Abstract:

The exact solutions of the equations describing the steady plane motion of an incompressible fluid of variable viscosity for an arbitrary state equation are determined in the (ξ,ψ) − or (η,ψ )- coordinates where ψ(x,y) is the stream function, ξ and η are the parts of the analytic function, ϖ =ξ( x,y )+iη( x,y ). Most of the solutions involve arbitrary function/ functions indicating  that the flow equations possess an infinite set of solutions. 

Keywords: Navier-Stokes equations, exact solutions, Fluid of variable viscosity, Steady plane flows

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5 Some Rotational Flows of an Incompressible Fluid of Variable Viscosity

Authors: Rana Khalid Naeem, Asif Mansoor, Waseem Ahmed Khan, Muhammad Akhtar

Abstract:

The Navier Stokes Equations (NSE) for an incompressible fluid of variable viscosity in the presence of an unknown external force in Von-Mises system x,\ are transformed, and some new exact solutions for a class of flows characterized by equation y f x a\b for an arbitrary state equation are determined, where f x is a function, \ the stream function, a z 0 and b are the arbitrary constants. In three, out of four cases, the function f x is arbitrary, and the solutions are the solutions of the flow equations for all the flows characterized by the equationy f x a\b. Streamline patterns for some forms of f x in unbounded and bounded regions are given.

Keywords: exact solution, variable viscosity, Bounded and unbounded region, Navier Stokes equations, Streamline pattern, Von- Mises system

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4 Quantification of Periodicities in Fugitive Emission of Gases from Lyari Waterway

Authors: Rana Khalid Naeem, Asif Mansoor

Abstract:

Periodicities in the environmetric time series can be idyllically assessed by utilizing periodic models. In this communication fugitive emission of gases from open sewer channel Lyari which follows periodic behaviour are approximated by employing periodic autoregressive model of order p. The orders of periodic model for each season are selected through the examination of periodic partial autocorrelation or information criteria. The parameters for the selected order of season are estimated individually for each emitted air toxin. Subsequently, adequacies of fitted models are established by examining the properties of the residual for each season. These models are beneficial for schemer and administrative bodies for the improvement of implemented policies to surmount future environmental problems.

Keywords: goodness of fit, Exchange of Gases, Open Sewer Channel, PAR(p) Models, Periodicities, Season Wise Models

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3 A New Velocity Expression for Open Channel and its Application to Lyari River

Authors: Rana Khalid Naeem, Asif Mansoor

Abstract:

In this communication an expression for mean velocity of waste flow via an open channel is proposed which is an improvement over Manning formula. The discharges, storages and depths are computed at all locations of the Lyari river by utilizing proposed expression. The results attained through proposed expression are in good agreement with the observed data and better than those acquired using Manning formula.

Keywords: Storage, Flow, comparison, open channel, depth, Proposed Model

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2 Quantitative Study for Exchange of Gases from Open Sewer Channel to Atmosphere

Authors: Asif Mansoor, Nasiruddin Khan, Noreen Jamil

Abstract:

In this communication a quantitative modeling approach is applied to construct model for the exchange of gases from open sewer channel to the atmosphere. The data for the exchange of gases of the open sewer channel for the year January 1979 to December 2006 is utilized for the construction of the model. The study reveals that stream flow of the open sewer channel exchanges the toxic gases continuously with time varying scale. We find that the quantitative modeling approach is more parsimonious model for these exchanges. The usual diagnostic tests are applied for the model adequacy. This model is beneficial for planner and managerial bodies for the improvement of implemented policies to overcome future environmental problems.

Keywords: Atmosphere, Stochastic models, Industrial Waste, Open sewer channel, Municipalwaste, Gases exchange, Diagnosticschecks

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1 Quantitative Estimation of Periodicities in Lyari River Flow Routing

Authors: Rana Khalid Naeem, Asif Mansoor

Abstract:

The hydrologic time series data display periodic structure and periodic autoregressive process receives considerable attention in modeling of such series. In this communication long term record of monthly waste flow of Lyari river is utilized to quantify by using PAR modeling technique. The parameters of model are estimated by using Frances & Paap methodology. This study shows that periodic autoregressive model of order 2 is the most parsimonious model for assessing periodicity in waste flow of the river. A careful statistical analysis of residuals of PAR (2) model is used for establishing goodness of fit. The forecast by using proposed model confirms significance and effectiveness of the model.

Keywords: Model selection, Periodicity, Diagnostic checks, Lyari river, Monthly waste flow, Periodic autoregressive model

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