Search results for: vulnerability

Authors: B. S. Choudri

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Introduction: Climate change is a major threat to rural livelihoods and to food security in the developing world, including Oman. The aim of this study is to provide a basis for policymakers and researchers in order to understand the impacts of climate change on agriculture and developing adaptation strategies in Oman. Methodology: The data was collected from different agricultural areas across the country with the help of a questionnaire survey among farmers, discussion with community, and observations at the field level. Results: The analysis of data collected from different areas within the country shows a shift in the sowing period of major crops and increased temperatures over recent years. Farmer community is adopting through diversification of crops, use of heat-tolerant species, and improved measures of soil and water conservation. Agriculture has been the main livelihood for most of the farmer communities in rural areas in the country. Conclusions: In order to reduce the effects of climate change at the local and farmer communities, risk reduction would be important along with an in-depth analysis of the vulnerability. Therefore, capacity building of local farmers and providing them with scientific knowledge, mainstreaming adaptation into development activities would be essential with additional funding and subsidies.

Keywords: agriculture, climate change, vulnerability, adaptation

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Authors: Hamidou Diallo, Marianne Guille

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This paper identifies leading triggers of deficient episodes in terms of GDP growth based on a sample of countries at different stages of development over 1994-2017. Using logit models, we build early warning systems (EWS), and our results show important differences between developing countries (DCs) and advanced economies (AEs). For AEs, the main predictors of the probability of entering in a GDP growth deficient episode are the deterioration of external imbalances and the vulnerability of fiscal position while DCs face different challenges that need to be considered. The key indicators for them are first, the low ability to pay their debts, and second, their belonging or not to a common currency area. We also build homogeneous pools of countries inside AEs and DCs. The evolution of the proportion of AE countries in the riskiest pool is marked first, by three distinct peaks just after the high-tech bubble burst, the global financial crisis, and the European sovereign debt crisis, and second by a very low minimum level in 2006 and 2007. In contrast, the situation of DCs is characterized first by the relative stability of this proportion and then by an upward trend from 2006, that can be explained by a more unfavorable socio-political environment leading to shortcomings in the fiscal consolidation.

Keywords: currency area, early warning system, external imbalances, fiscal vulnerability, GDP growth, public debt

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Authors: Shi-Yu Xu

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The top three risk factors that have contributed to building collapses during past earthquake events in Taiwan are: "irregular floor plans or elevations," "insufficient columns in single-bay buildings," and the "weak-story problem." Fortunately, these unsound structural characteristics can be directly identified from the floor plans. However, due to the vast number of old buildings, conducting manual inspections to identify these compromised structural features in all existing structures would be time-consuming and prone to human errors. This study aims to develop an algorithm that utilizes artificial intelligence techniques to automatically pinpoint the structural components within a building's floor plans. The obtained spatial information will be utilized to construct a digital structural model of the building. This information, particularly regarding the distribution of columns in the floor plan, can then be used to conduct preliminary seismic assessments of the building. The study employs various image processing and pattern recognition techniques to enhance detection efficiency and accuracy. The study enables a large-scale evaluation of structural vulnerability for numerous old buildings, providing ample time to arrange for structural retrofitting in those buildings that are at risk of significant damage or collapse during earthquakes.

Keywords: structural vulnerability detection, object recognition, seismic capacity assessment, old buildings, artificial intelligence

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Authors: Annie Devault

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Mindfulness-based interventions (MBI) can be beneficial for the well-being of children. MBIs offered for children in contexts of vulnerability (poverty, neglect) report positive results in terms of emotion regulation and cognitive flexibility. Anxiety is a common issue for children living in a vulnerable context. It has a negative impact on children’s attention span, emotional regulation and self-esteem. The MBI (12 weeks) associated with this research has been developed for a total of 30 children suffering from anxiety (7 to 9 years old) and receiving services from a community center over the last seven years. The first objective is to describe in details the content of the mindfulness-based intervention. The second purpose is to document what helps and what hinders the practice of mindfulness for children living in a context of vulnerability. A special attention will be given to the importance of the way that the intervention is offered and the principles that are followed by the practitioners. Perceived effects of the intervention on children were collected through an individual semi-structured interview with each child at the end of the program. Parents were also interviewed to have their point of view on the effect of their children’s participation in the group. Anxiety was measure with the Beck youth pre-post and at follow up (2 months). Qualitative analysis of the interviews with children showed that most of them mentioned that the program helped them become calmer, more confident, less scared and more able to deal with difficult emotions. Almost all of them reported having used the material provided to them to practice at home. This result has been confirmed by parents. They reported that their child had gained confidence and were better at verbalizing emotions. Children also grew calmer, even though all anxiety was not gone. They would have liked more material to practice at home. The quantitative instrument used to measure anxiety did not corroborate the qualitative interviews about anxiety. Discussion will question the use of this questionnaire for children who have important cognitive limitations. Discussion will also report the importance of the personalized contact with children, along with other consideration, to enhance the adherence of children and parents. The MBI seems to have benefited children in different ways, which is corroborated by most parents. Since the sample was limited, we will need to continue documenting its effects with more children and parents. The major strength of this research is to have reported the subjective perspectives of children on their experience of mindfulness.

Keywords: anxiety, mindfulness, children, best practices

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Authors: Cao Jiayu, Lan Ximing, Huang Jingjia, Burra Venkata Durga Kumar

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The first virus to attack personal computers was born in early 1986, called C-Brain, written by a pair of Pakistani brothers. In those days, people still used dos systems, manipulating computers with the most basic command lines. In the 21st century today, computer performance has grown geometrically. But computer viruses are also evolving and escalating. We never stop fighting against security problems. Stack overflow is one of the most common security vulnerabilities in operating systems. It may result in serious security issues for an operating system if a program in it has a vulnerability with administrator privileges. Certain viruses change the value of specific memory through a stack overflow, allowing computers to run harmful programs. This study developed a mechanism to detect and respond to time whenever a stack overflow occurs. We demonstrate the effectiveness of standard machine learning algorithms and control flow enforcement techniques in predicting computer OS security using generating suspicious vulnerability functions (SVFS) and associated suspect areas (SAS). The method can minimize the possibility of stack overflow attacks occurring.

Keywords: operating system, security, stack overflow, buffer overflow, machine learning, control-flow enforcement technology

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Authors: Ahsan Abdullah, Ahmed A. S. Bakshwain

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Livestock is one of the fastest-growing sectors in agriculture. If carefully managed, have potential opportunities for economic growth, food sovereignty and food security. In this study we mainly analyse and compare long-term i.e. for year 2030 climate variability impact on predicted productivity of meat i.e. beef, mutton and poultry for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia w.r.t three factors i.e. i) climatic-change vulnerability ii) CO2 fertilization and iii) water scarcity and compare the results with two countries of the region i.e. Iraq and Yemen. We do the analysis using data from diverse sources, which was extracted, transformed and integrated before usage. The collective impact of the three factors had an overall negative effect on the production of meat for all the three countries, with adverse impact on Iraq. High similarity was found between CO2 fertilization (effecting animal fodder) and water scarcity i.e. higher than that between production of beef and mutton for the three countries considered. Overall, the three factors do not seem to be favorable for the three Middle-East countries considered. This points to possibility of a vegetarian year 2030 based on dependency on indigenous live-stock population.

Keywords: prediction, animal-source foods, pastures, CO2 fertilization, climatic-change vulnerability, water scarcity

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Authors: Marina Bubalo, Davor Romić, Stjepan Husnjak, Helena Bakić

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Even though European Council Directive 91/676/EEC known as Nitrates Directive was adopted in 1991, the issue of water quality preservation in areas of intensive agricultural production still persist all over Europe. High nitrate nitrogen concentrations in surface and groundwater originating from diffuse sources are one of the most important environmental problems in modern intensive agriculture. The fate of nitrogen in soil, surface and groundwater in agricultural area is mostly affected by anthropogenic activity (i.e. agricultural practice) and hydrological and climatological conditions. The aim of this study was to identify impact of land use, soil type, soil vulnerability to pollutant percolation, and natural aquifer vulnerability to nitrate occurrence in surface and groundwater within an intensive agricultural area. The study was set in Varaždin County (northern Croatia), which is under significant influence of the large rivers Drava and Mura and due to that entire area is dominated by alluvial soil with shallow active profile mainly on gravel base. Negative agricultural impact on water quality in this area is evident therefore the half of selected county is a part of delineated nitrate vulnerable zones (NVZ). Data on water quality were collected from 7 surface and 8 groundwater monitoring stations in the County. Also, recent study of the area implied detailed inventory of agricultural production and fertilizers use with the aim to produce new agricultural land use database as one of dominant parameters. The analysis of this database done using ArcGIS 10.1 showed that 52,7% of total County area is agricultural land and 59,2% of agricultural land is used for intensive agricultural production. On the other hand, 56% of soil within the county is classified as soil vulnerable to pollutant percolation. The situation is similar with natural aquifer vulnerability; northern part of the county ranges from high to very high aquifer vulnerability. Statistical analysis of water quality data is done using SPSS 13.0. Cluster analysis group both surface and groundwater stations in two groups according to nitrate nitrogen concentrations. Mean nitrate nitrogen concentration in surface water – group 1 ranges from 4,2 to 5,5 mg/l and in surface water – group 2 from 24 to 42 mg/l. The results are similar, but evidently higher, in groundwater samples; mean nitrate nitrogen concentration in group 1 ranges from 3,9 to 17 mg/l and in group 2 from 36 to 96 mg/l. ANOVA analysis confirmed statistical significance between stations that are classified in the same group. The previously listed parameters (land use, soil type, etc.) were used in factorial correspondence analysis (FCA) to detect importance of each stated parameter in local water quality. Since stated parameters mostly cannot be altered, there is obvious necessity for more precise and more adapted land management in such conditions.

Keywords: agricultural area, nitrate, factorial correspondence analysis, water quality

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Authors: Ouabo Emmanuel Romaric, Amougou Armathe

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Background and aim: The study of impacts of floods and landslides at a small scale, specifically in the urban areas of developing countries is done to provide tools and actors for a better management of risks in such areas, which are now being affected by climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the hydrometeorological vulnerabilities associated with flooding and urban landslides to propose adaptation measures. Methods: Climatic data analyses were done by calculation of indices of climate change within 50 years (1960-2012). Analyses of field data to determine causes, the level of risk and its consequences on the area of study was carried out using SPSS 18 software. The cartographic analysis and GIS were used to refine the work in space. Then, spatial and terrain analyses were carried out to determine the morphology of field in relation with floods and landslide, and the diffusion on the field. Results: The interannual changes in precipitation has highlighted the surplus years (21), the deficit years (24) and normal years (7). Barakat method bring out evolution of precipitation by jerks and jumps. Floods and landslides are correlated to high precipitation during surplus and normal years. Data field analyses show that populations are conscious (78%) of the risks with 74% of them exposed, but their capacities of adaptation is very low (51%). Floods are the main risk. The soils are classed as feralitic (80%), hydromorphic (15%) and raw mineral (5%). Slope variation (5% to 15%) of small hills and deep valley with anarchic construction favor flood and landslide during heavy precipitation. Mismanagement of waste produce blocks free circulation of river and accentuate floods. Conclusion: Vulnerability of population to hydrometeorological risks in Yaoundé VI is the combination of variation of parameters like precipitation, temperature due to climate change, and the bad planning of construction in urban areas. Because of lack of channels for water to circulate due to saturation of soils, the increase of heavy precipitation and mismanagement of waste, the result are floods and landslides which causes many damages on goods and people.

Keywords: climate change, floods, hydrometeorological, vulnerability

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Authors: Nolitha L. Skenjana, Bongani P. Kubheka, Maxwell A. Poswal

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The Eastern Cape Province of South Africa is characterized by subsistence farming, which is mostly distributed in the rural areas of the province. It is estimated that cereal crops such as maize and sorghum, and vegetables such as cabbage are grown in more than 400.000 rural households, with maize being the most dominant crop. However, compared to commercial agriculture, small-scale farmers receive minimal support from research and development, limited technology transfer on the latest production practices and systems and have poor production infrastructure and equipment. Similarly, there is limited farmers' appreciation on best practices in insect pest management and control. The paper presents findings from the primary literature and personal observations on insect pest management practices of small-scale farmers in the province. Inferences from literature and personal experiences in the production areas have led to a number of deductions regarding the level of exposure and extent of vulnerability. Farmers' pest management practices, which included not controlling at all though there is a pest problem, resulted in their crop stands to be more vulnerable to pest attacks. This became more evident with the recent brown locust, African armyworm, and Fall armyworm outbreaks, and with the incidences of opportunistic phytophagous insects previously collected on wild hosts only, found causing serious damages on crops. In most of these occurrences, damage to crops resulted in low or no yield. Improvements on farmers' reaction and response to pest problems were only observed in areas where focused awareness campaigns and trainings on specific pests and their management techniques were done. This then calls for a concerted effort from all role players in the sphere of small-scale crop production, to train and equip farmers with relevant skills, and provide them with information on affordable and climate-smart strategies and technologies in order to create a state of preparedness. This is necessary for the prevention of substantial crop losses that may exacerbate food insecurity in the province.

Keywords: Eastern Cape Province, small-scale farmers, insect pest management, vulnerability

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Authors: Ishita Singh

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Social-dimension of Climate Change is no longer peripheral to Science, Technology and Innovation (STI). Indeed, STI is being mobilized to address small farmers’ vulnerability and adaptation to Climate Change. The experiences from the cold desert of Leh (Ladakh) in North-West Himalaya illustrate the potential of STI to address the challenges of Climate Change and the needs of small farmers through the use of Artificial Glacier Techniques. Small farmers have a unique technique of water harvesting to augment irrigation, called “Artificial Glaciers” - an intricate network of water channels and dams along the upper slope of a valley that are located closer to villages and at lower altitudes than natural glaciers. It starts to melt much earlier and supplements additional irrigation to small farmers’ improving their livelihoods. Therefore, the issue of vulnerability, adaptive capacity and adaptation strategy needs to be analyzed in a local context and the communities as well as regions where people live. Leh (Ladakh) in North-West Himalaya provides a Case Study for exploring the ways in which adaptation to Climate Change is taking place at a community scale using Artificial Glacier Technology. With the above backdrop, an attempt has been made to analyze the rural poor households' vulnerability and adaptation practices to Climate Change using this technology, thereby drawing lessons on vulnerability-livelihood interactions in the cold desert of Leh (Ladakh) in North-West Himalaya, India. The study is based on primary data and information collected from 675 households confined to 27 villages of Leh (Ladakh) in North-West Himalaya, India. It reveals that 61.18% of the population is driving livelihoods from agriculture and allied activities. With increased irrigation potential due to the use of Artificial Glaciers, food security has been assured to 77.56% of households and health vulnerability has been reduced in 31% of households. Seasonal migration as a livelihood diversification mechanism has declined in nearly two-thirds of households, thereby improving livelihood strategies. Use of tactical adaptations by small farmers in response to persistent droughts, such as selling livestock, expanding agriculture lands, and use of relief cash and foods, have declined to 20.44%, 24.74% and 63% of households. However, these measures are unsustainable on a long-term basis. The role of policymakers and societal stakeholders becomes important in this context. To address livelihood challenges, the role of technology is critical in a multidisciplinary approach involving multilateral collaboration among different stakeholders. The presence of social entrepreneurs and new actors on the adaptation scene is necessary to bring forth adaptation measures. Better linkage between Science and Technology policies, together with other policies, should be encouraged. Better health care, access to safe drinking water, better sanitary conditions, and improved standards of education and infrastructure are effective measures to enhance a community’s adaptive capacity. However, social transfers for supporting climate adaptive capacity require significant amounts of additional investment. Developing institutional mechanisms for specific adaptation interventions can be one of the most effective ways of implementing a plan to enhance adaptation and build resilience.

Keywords: climate change, adaptation, livelihood, stakeholders

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Authors: Natalia Limones, Javier Marzo, Marcus Wijnen, Aleix Serrat-Capdevila

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In this research we developed a structured approach for the detection of areas under the highest levels of drought risk that is suitable for data-scarce environments. The methodology is based on recent scientific outcomes and methods and can be easily adapted to different contexts in successive exercises. The research reviews the history of drought in the south of Angola and characterizes the experienced hazard in the episode from 2012, focusing on the meteorological and the hydrological drought types. Only global open data information coming from modeling or remote sensing was used for the description of the hydroclimatological variables since there is almost no ground data in this part of the country. Also, the study intends to portray the socioeconomic vulnerabilities and the exposure to the phenomenon in the region to fully understand the risk. As a result, a map of the areas under the highest risk in the south of the country is produced, which is one of the main outputs of this work. It was also possible to confirm that the set of indicators used revealed different drought vulnerability profiles in the South of Angola and, as a result, several varieties of priority areas prone to distinctive impacts were recognized. The results demonstrated that most of the region experienced a severe multi-year meteorological drought that triggered an unprecedent exhaustion of the surface water resources, and that the majority of their socioeconomic impacts started soon after the identified onset of these processes.

Keywords: drought risk, exposure, hazard, vulnerability

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Authors: Aditya Setyo Rahman, Dwikorita Karnawati, Muzli, Dadang Permana, Sigit Pramono, Fajri Syukur Rahmatullah, Oriza Sativa, Moehajirin, Edy Santoso, Nur Hidayati Oktavia, Ardian Yudhi Octantyo, Robby Wallansha, Juwita Sari Pradita, Nur Fani Habibah, Audia Kaluku, Amelia Chelcea, Yoga Dharma Persada, Anton Sugiharto

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Earthquake vibrations on the surface are not only affected by the magnitude of the earthquake and the distance from the hypocenter but also by the characteristics of the local soil. Variations and changes in soil characteristics from the depth of the bedrock to the surface can cause an amplification of earthquake vibrations that also affect the impact they may have on the surface. Soil characteristics vary widely even at relatively close distances, so for earthquake hazard mapping in cities with earthquake threats, it is necessary to study the characteristics of the local soil on a detailed or micro-scale (microzonation). This study proposes seismic microzonation and liquefaction potential based on microtremor observations. We carried out 143 microtremor observations, and the observation sites were spread across all populated sub-districts in Bengkulu City; the results showed that the dominance of Bengkulu City had medium soil types with a dominant period value of 0.4 < T₀ < 0.6, and there was one location with soft soil characteristics in the river, shaved with T₀ > 0.6. These results correlate with the potential for liquefaction as indicated by a seismic vulnerability index (K𝓰) greater than 5.

Keywords: microtremor, dominant period, microzonation, seismic vulnerability index

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Authors: Lito M. Amit, Venecio U. Ultra, Young-Woong Song

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The business process outsourcing (BPO) in the Philippines is expanding rapidly attracting more than 2% of total employment. Currently, the BPO industry is confronted with several issues pertaining to sustainable productivity such as meeting the staffing gap, high rate of employees’ turnover and workforce retention, and the occupational health and safety (OHS) of call center agents. We conducted a survey of OHS programs and health concerns among call center agents in the Philippines and determined the sociocultural factors that affect the vulnerability of call center agents to occupational health risks and hazards. The majority of the agents affirmed that OHS are implemented and OHS orientation and emergency procedures were conducted at employment initiations, perceived favorable and convenient working environment except for occasional noise disturbances and acoustic shock, visual, and voice fatigues. Male agents can easily adjust to the demands and changes in their work environment and flexible work schedules than female agents. Female agents have a higher tendency to be pressured and humiliated by low work performance, experience a higher incidence of emotional abuse, psychological abuse, and experience more physical stress than male agents. The majority of the call center agents had a night-shift schedule and regardless of other factors, night shift work brings higher stress to agents. While working in a call center, higher incidence of headaches and insomnia, burnout, suppressed anger, anxiety, and depressions were experienced by female, younger (21-25 years old) and those at night shift than their counterpart. Most common musculoskeletal disorders include body pain in the neck, shoulders and back; and hand and wrist disorders and these are commonly experienced by female and younger workers. About 30% experienced symptoms of cardiovascular and gastrointestinal disorders and weakened immune systems. Overall, these findings have shown the variable vulnerability by a different subpopulation of call center agents and are important in the occupational health risk prevention and management towards a sustainable human resource for BPO industry in the Philippines.

Keywords: business process outsourcing industry, health risk of call center agents, socio-cultural determinants, Philippines

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Authors: Mohiuddin Sakib, Fatin Nihal, Rabeya Akter, Anisul Haque, Munsur Rahman, Wasif-E-Elahi

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Surge generating cyclones are one of the deadliest natural disasters that threaten the life of coastal environment and communities worldwide. Due to the geographic location, ‘low lying alluvial plain, geomorphologic characteristics and 710 kilometers exposed coastline, Bangladesh is considered as one of the greatest vulnerable country for storm surge flooding. Bay of Bengal is possessing the highest potential of creating storm surge inundation to the coastal areas. Bangladesh is the most exposed country to tropical cyclone with an average of four cyclone striking every years. Frequent cyclone landfall made the country one of the worst sufferer within the world for cyclone induced storm surge flooding and casualties. During the years from 1797 to 2009 Bangladesh has been hit by 63 severe cyclones with strengths of different magnitudes. Though detailed studies were done focusing on the specific cyclone like Sidr or Aila, no study was conducted where vulnerable areas of exposed coast were identified based on the strength of cyclones. This study classifies the vulnerable areas of the exposed coast based on storm surge inundation depth and area due to cyclones of varying strengths. Classification of the exposed coast based on hazard induced cyclonic vulnerability will help the decision makers to take appropriate policies for reducing damage and loss.

Keywords: cyclone, landfall, storm surge, exposed coastline, vulnerability

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Authors: Reza Akbari, Jalal MontazeriFashtali, PeymanMomeni Taromsari

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Pipeline systems, play an important role as a vital element in reducing or increasing the risk of earthquake damage and vulnerability. Pipelines are suitable, cheap, fast, and safe routes for transporting oil, gas, water, sewage, etc. The sepipelines must pass from a wide geographical area; hence they will structurally face different environmental and underground factors of earthquake forces’ effect. Therefore, structural engineering analysis and design for this type of lines requires the understanding of relevant parameters behavior and lack of familiarity with them can cause irreparable damages and risks to design and execution, especially in the face of earthquakes. Today, buried pipelines play an important role in human life cycle, thus, studying the vulnerability of pipeline systems is of particular importance. This study examines the behavior of buried pipelines affected by strike-slip fault. Studied fault is perpendicular to the tube axis and causes stress and deformation in the tube by sliding horizontally. In this study, the pipe-soil interaction is accurately simulated, so that one can examine the large displacements and strains, nonlinear material behavior and contact and friction conditions of soil and pipe. The results can be used for designing buried pipes and determining the amount of fault displacement that causes the failure of the buried pipes.

Keywords: pipe lines , earthquake , fault , soil-fault interaction

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Authors: Elif N. Coban

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With the political instability that has prevailed in Lebanon since October 2019, followed by a global pandemic and a deepening concurrent economic crisis after the Beirut Port explosion on August 4, 2020, Syrian refugees in Lebanon have struggled to survive what the World Bank has described as one of the worst economic crises in decades. This study aims to assess the vulnerability of Syrian refugee women. It will present a comparative analysis of refugee and Lebanese households using data from Lebanon’s Labour Force and Household Conditions Survey (LFHLCS) and from VASyr surveys, which are comprehensive annual surveys conducted jointly by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), and the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP). The study adopts an intersectionality-based method, which deals with gender and marginalized communities from many different perspectives, to put forward a gender-oriented approach. Examining the distribution of socioeconomic status among Syrian and Lebanese households might help to understand the disproportionate burdens borne by women. In this context, multidimensional poverty (MP) helps depict fragile communities’ socioeconomic status and allows a fuller grasp the multiple aspects of deprivation. Finally, this understanding may pave the way to more inclusive policy for decision-makers and practitioners working on refugee issues.

Keywords: multidimensional poverty, gender studies, intersectionality, Syrian refugees, Lebanon

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Authors: Zegrar Ahmed, Ghabi Mohamed

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The degradation of arid and semi-arid ecosystems in Algeria has become a palpable fact that only hinders progress and rural development. In these exceptionally fragile environments, the decline of vegetation is done according to an alarming increase and wind erosion dominates. The ecosystem is subjected to a long hot dry season and low annual average rainfall. The urgency of the fight against desertification is imposed by the very nature of the process that tends to self-accelerate, resulting when human intervention is not forthcoming the irreversibility situations, preventing any possibility of restoration state of these zones. These phenomena have led to different degradation processes, such as the destruction of vegetation, soil erosion, and deterioration of the physical environment. In this study, the work is mainly based on the criteria for classification and identification of physical parameters for spatial analysis and multi-sources to determine the vulnerability of major steppe formations and their impact on desertification. we used Landsat data with two different dates March 2010 and November 2014 in order to determine the changes in land cover, sand moving and land degradation for the diagnosis of the desertification Phenomenon. The application, through specific processes, including the supervised classification was used to characterize the main steppe formations. An analysis of the vulnerability of plant communities was conducted to assign weights and identify areas most susceptible to desertification. Vegetation indices are used to characterize the steppe formations to determine changes in land use.

Keywords: remote sensing, SIG, ecosystem, degradation, desertification

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Authors: Thomas Yeboah

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In contemporary times, the incessant movement of northern children especially girls to southern Ghana at the detriment of their education is worrisome. Due to the misplaced mindset of the migrants concerning southern Ghana, majority of them move without an idea of where to stay and what to do exposing them to hash conditions of living. Majority find menial work in cocoa farms, illegal mining and head porterage business. This study was conducted in the Kumasi Metropolis to ascertain the major causes of child migration from the northern part of Ghana to the south and their living conditions. Both qualitative and quantitative tools of data collection and analysis were employed. The purposive sampling technique was used to select 90 migrants below 18 years. Specifically, interviews, focus group discussions and questionnaires were used to elicit responses from the units of analysis. The study revealed that the major cause of child migration from northern Ghana to the south is poverty. It was evident that respondents were vulnerable to the new environment in which they lived. They are exposed to harsh environmental conditions; sexual, verbal and physical assault; and harassment from arm robbers. The paper recommends that policy decisions should be able to create an enabling environment for the labour force in the north to ameliorate the compelling effects poverty has on child migration. Efforts should also be made to create a proper psychological climate in the minds of the children regarding their destination areas through sensitization and education.

Keywords: child migration, vulnerability, social exclusion, child labour, Ghana

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Authors: Mojtaba Sadeghi, Farshid Baniassadi, Hamed Kashani

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One of the challenging issues faced by seismic retrofitting consultants and employers is quick decision-making on the demolition or retrofitting of a structure at the current time or in the future. For this reason, the existing models proposed by researchers have only covered one of the aspects of cost, execution method, and structural vulnerability. Given the effect of each factor on the final decision, it is crucial to devise a new comprehensive model capable of simultaneously covering all the factors. This study attempted to provide an integrated framework that can be utilized to select the most appropriate earthquake risk mitigation solution for buildings. This framework can overcome the limitations of current models by taking into account several factors such as cost, execution method, risk-taking and structural failure. In the newly proposed model, the database and essential information about retrofitting projects are developed based on the historical data on a retrofit project. In the next phase, an analysis is conducted in order to assess the vulnerability of the building under study. Then, artificial neural networks technique is employed to calculate the cost of retrofitting. While calculating the current price of the structure, an economic analysis is conducted to compare demolition versus retrofitting costs. At the next stage, the optimal method is identified. Finally, the implementation of the framework was demonstrated by collecting data concerning 155 previous projects.

Keywords: decision making, demolition, construction management, seismic retrofit

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Authors: Maria Elisa B. Manuel

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The Philippine housing sector is bracing challenges with the massive housing backlog and the adamant cycle of relocation, resettlement and returns to the cities of informal settler families due to the vast inaccessibility of necessities and opportunities in the past off-city housing projects. Bistekville 2 has been established as a model socialized housing project by utilizing government partnerships with private developers and individuals in the first in-city and onsite resettlement effort in the country. The study looked into the resilience of the residents to idiosyncratic economic shocks by analyzing their vulnerabilities, assets and coping strategies. The study formulated an economic resilience framework to identify how these factors that interact to build the household’s capacity to positively adapt to sudden expenses in their households. The framework is supplemented with a scale that presents the proximity of the household to resilience by identifying through its indicators whether the households are in the level of subsistence, coping, adaptive or transformative. Survey interviews were conducted with 91 households from Bistekville 2 on the components that have been identified by the framework that was processed with qualitative and quantitative processes. The study has found that the households are highly vulnerable due to their family composition and other conditions such as unhealthy loans, inconsistent amortization payment. Along with their high vulnerability, the households have inadequate strategies to anticipate shocks and primarily react to the shock. This has led to the conclusion that the households do not reflect resilience to idiosyncratic economic shocks and are still at the level of coping.

Keywords: idiosyncratic economic shocks, socialized housing, economic resilience, economic vulnerability, adaptive capacity

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Authors: Zunaira Zaman, David Bohannon

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This study explores the application of machine learning (ML) for detecting security vulnerabilities in source code. The research aims to assist organizations with large application portfolios and limited security testing capabilities in prioritizing security activities. ML-based approaches offer benefits such as increased confidence scores, false positives and negatives tuning, and automated feedback. The initial approach using natural language processing techniques to extract features achieved 86% accuracy during the training phase but suffered from overfitting and performed poorly on unseen datasets during testing. To address these issues, the study proposes using the abstract syntax tree (AST) for Java and C++ codebases to capture code semantics and structure and generate path-context representations for each function. The Code2Vec model architecture is used to learn distributed representations of source code snippets for training a machine-learning classifier for vulnerability prediction. The study evaluates the performance of the proposed methodology using two datasets and compares the results with existing approaches. The Devign dataset yielded 60% accuracy in predicting vulnerable code snippets and helped resist overfitting, while the Juliet Test Suite predicted specific vulnerabilities such as OS-Command Injection, Cryptographic, and Cross-Site Scripting vulnerabilities. The Code2Vec model achieved 75% accuracy and a 98% recall rate in predicting OS-Command Injection vulnerabilities. The study concludes that even partial AST representations of source code can be useful for vulnerability prediction. The approach has the potential for automated intelligent analysis of source code, including vulnerability prediction on unseen source code. State-of-the-art models using natural language processing techniques and CNN models with ensemble modelling techniques did not generalize well on unseen data and faced overfitting issues. However, predicting vulnerabilities in source code using machine learning poses challenges such as high dimensionality and complexity of source code, imbalanced datasets, and identifying specific types of vulnerabilities. Future work will address these challenges and expand the scope of the research.

Keywords: code embeddings, neural networks, natural language processing, OS command injection, software security, code properties

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Authors: Ali Reza Ghanbarnezhad Ghazvini, Seyyed Hamid Reza Mosayyebi

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In recent years, an earthquake has occurred approximately every five years in certain regions of Iran. To mitigate the impact of these seismic events, it is crucial to identify and thoroughly assess the vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure, ensuring their safety through principled reinforcement. By adopting new methods of risk assessment, we can effectively reduce the potential risks associated with future earthquakes. In our research, we have observed that the coefficient of behavior in the fourth chapter is 1.65 for the initial structure and 1.72 for the Superframe structure. This indicates that the Superframe structure can enhance the strength of the main structural members by approximately 10% through the utilization of super beams. Furthermore, based on the comparative analysis between the two structures conducted in this study, we have successfully designed a stronger structure with minimal changes in the coefficient of behavior. Additionally, this design has allowed for greater energy dissipation during seismic events, further enhancing the structure's resilience to earthquakes. By comprehensively examining and reinforcing the vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure, along with implementing advanced risk assessment techniques, we can significantly reduce casualties and damages caused by earthquakes in Iran. The findings of this study offer valuable insights for civil engineering professionals in the field of structural engineering, aiding them in designing safer and more resilient structures.

Keywords: modal pushover analysis, response modification factor, high-strength concrete, concrete shear walls, high-rise building

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Authors: Nuno M. Pereira

Abstract:

In the last thirty years, European cities have been addressing global climate change and its local impacts by implementing mitigation and adaptation strategies. Lisbon Downtown is no exception with 10 plans under implementation since 2010 with completion scheduled for 2030 valued 1 billion euros of public investment. However, the gap between mitigation and adaptation strategies is not yet sufficiently studied alongside with its nuances- vulnerability and risk mitigation, resilience and adaptation. In Lisbon Downtown, these plans are being implemented separately, therefore compromising the effectiveness of public investment. The research reviewed the common ground of mitigation and adaptation strategies of the theoretical framework and analyzed the current urban development actions in Lisbon Downtown in order to identify potential conflicts and synergies. The empirical fieldwork supported by a sounding board of experts has been developed during two years and the results suggest that the largest public investment in Lisbon on flooding mitigation will conflict with the new Cruise ship terminal and old Downton building stock, therefore increasing risk and vulnerability factors. The study concludes that the Lisbon Downtown blue infrastructure plan should be redesigned in some areas in a trans- disciplinary and holistic approach and that the current theoretical framework on climate change should focus more on mitigation and adaptation synergies articulating the gray, blue and green infrastructures, combining old knowledge tested by resilient communities and new knowledge emerging from the digital era.

Keywords: adaptation, climate change, conflict, Lisbon Downtown, mitigation, synergy

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Authors: P. Mounnarath, U. Schmitz, Ch. Zhang

Abstract:

Fragility analysis is an effective tool for the seismic vulnerability assessment of civil structures in the last several years. The design of the expansion joints according to various bridge design codes is almost inconsistent, and only a few studies have focused on this problem so far. In this study, the influence of the expansion joint clearances between the girder ends and the abutment backwalls on the seismic fragility assessment of continuous integral bridge frames is investigated. The gaps (ranging from 60 mm, 150 mm, 250 mm and 350 mm) are designed by following two different bridge design code specifications, namely, Caltrans and Eurocode 8-2. Five bridge models are analyzed and compared. The first bridge model serves as a reference. This model uses three-dimensional reinforced concrete fiber beam-column elements with simplified supports at both ends of the girder. The other four models also employ reinforced concrete fiber beam-column elements but include the abutment backfill stiffness and four different gap values. The nonlinear time history analysis is performed. The artificial ground motion sets, which have the peak ground accelerations (PGAs) ranging from 0.1 g to 1.0 g with an increment of 0.05 g, are taken as input. The soil-structure interaction and the P-Δ effects are also included in the analysis. The component fragility curves in terms of the curvature ductility demand to the capacity ratio of the piers and the displacement demand to the capacity ratio of the abutment sliding bearings are established and compared. The system fragility curves are then obtained by combining the component fragility curves. Our results show that in the component fragility analysis, the reference bridge model exhibits a severe vulnerability compared to that of other sophisticated bridge models for all damage states. In the system fragility analysis, the reference curves illustrate a smaller damage probability in the earlier PGA ranges for the first three damage states, they then show a higher fragility compared to other curves in the larger PGA levels. In the fourth damage state, the reference curve has the smallest vulnerability. In both the component and the system fragility analysis, the same trend is found that the bridge models with smaller clearances exhibit a smaller fragility compared to that with larger openings. However, the bridge model with a maximum clearance still induces a minimum pounding force effect.

Keywords: expansion joint clearance, fiber beam-column element, fragility assessment, time history analysis

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Authors: Abdelkader Hachemi & Boualem Remini

Abstract:

Seawater intrusion is a significant challenge faced by coastal aquifers in the Mediterranean basin. This study aims to determine the position of the sharp interface between seawater and freshwater in the aquifer of Wadi Nador, located in the Wilaya of Tipaza, Algeria. A numerical areal sharp interface model using the finite element method is developed to investigate the spatial and temporal behavior of seawater intrusion. The aquifer is assumed to be homogeneous and isotropic. The simulation results are compared with geophysical prospection data obtained through electrical methods in 2011 to validate the model. The simulation results demonstrate a good agreement with the geophysical prospection data, confirming the accuracy of the sharp interface model. The position of the sharp interface in the aquifer is found to be approximately 1617 meters from the sea. Two scenarios are proposed to predict the interface position for the year 2024: one without pumping and the other with pumping. The results indicate a noticeable retreat of the sharp interface position in the first scenario, while a slight decline is observed in the second scenario. The findings of this study provide valuable insights into the dynamics of seawater intrusion in the Wadi Nador aquifer. The predicted changes in the sharp interface position highlight the potential impact of pumping activities on the aquifer's vulnerability to seawater intrusion. This study emphasizes the importance of implementing measures to manage and mitigate seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers. The sharp interface model developed in this research can serve as a valuable tool for assessing and monitoring the vulnerability of aquifers to seawater intrusion.

Keywords: seawater, intrusion, sharp interface, Algeria

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Authors: Kazi Ashief Mahmood

Abstract:

Geographically Bangladesh is located in a natural hazard prone area. Compared to the rest of the areas, the coastal sub-districts are more vulnerable to climate variability and change. However, the hydro-geophysical reality of the sub-districts predominantly determines their contexts of vulnerability and its nature differs accordingly. Intriguingly enough, the poorest of the areas appear to be the most cornered among the different vulnerable sectors. Among of these deprived segments; however, the women, the persons with disability and the minorities are generally more vulnerable and they face a high risk of marginalized. The most threatening hydro-geophysical climate vulnerability have been created by prolonged dry season as observed at Koyra Upazilla in Khulna districts and Shyamnagar in Satkhira districts. The prolonged dry season creates severe surface salinity by which farmers cannot produce or use their to cultivate. The absence of land-based production and employment in the area has led to severe food insecurity. As a result, farmers tend to change their livelihood option and many of them are forced to migrate to the other areas of the country in search of livelihood. Besides salinity intrusion, water logging, drought and different climate change induced hazards are endangering safe drinking water sources and putting small-holders out of agriculture-based livelihoods in the Koyra and Shyamnagar Upazilla. A sizeable fraction of small-holders are still trying to hold on to their small scale shrimp production, despite being under pressure to sell off their cultivating lands to their influential shrimp merchants. While their desperate effort to take advantage of the increasing salinity is somewhat successful, their families still face a greater risk of health hazards owing to the lack of safe drinking water. Unless the issues of salinity in drinking water cannot be redressed, the state of the affected people will be in great jeopardy. Most of the inhabitants of oKyra and Shyamnagar Upazilla are living under the poverty line. Thus, poverty is a major factor that intensifies the vulnerability caused by hydro-geophysical climatic conditions. The government and different NGOs are trying to improve the present scenario by implementing different disaster risk reduction projects along with poverty reduction for community empowerment.

Keywords: assessment, climate change, climate induced hazards, coastal zone

Procedia PDF Downloads 379

Authors: Nozar Kishi, Babak Kamrani, Filmon Habte

Abstract:

Natural hazards such as earthquakes and tropical storms, are very frequent and highly destructive in Japan. Japan experiences, every year on average, more than 10 tropical cyclones that come within damaging reach, and earthquakes of moment magnitude 6 or greater. We have developed stochastic catastrophe models to address the risk associated with the entire suite of damaging events in Japan, for use by insurance, reinsurance, NGOs and governmental institutions. KCC’s (Karen Clark and Company) catastrophe models are procedures constituted of four modular segments: 1) stochastic events sets that would represent the statistics of the past events, hazard attenuation functions that could model the local intensity, vulnerability functions that would address the repair need for local buildings exposed to the hazard, and financial module addressing policy conditions that could estimates the losses incurring as result of. The events module is comprised of events (faults or tracks) with different intensities with corresponding probabilities. They are based on the same statistics as observed through the historical catalog. The hazard module delivers the hazard intensity (ground motion or wind speed) at location of each building. The vulnerability module provides library of damage functions that would relate the hazard intensity to repair need as percentage of the replacement value. The financial module reports the expected loss, given the payoff policies and regulations. We have divided Japan into regions with similar typhoon climatology, and earthquake micro-zones, within each the characteristics of events are similar enough for stochastic modeling. For each region, then, a set of stochastic events is developed that results in events with intensities corresponding to annual occurrence probabilities that are of interest to financial communities; such as 0.01, 0.004, etc. The intensities, corresponding to these probabilities (called CE, Characteristics Events) are selected through a superstratified sampling approach that is based on the primary uncertainty. Region specific hazard intensity attenuation functions followed by vulnerability models leads to estimation of repair costs. Extensive economic exposure model addresses all local construction and occupancy types, such as post-linter Shinand Okabe wood, as well as concrete confined in steel, SRC (Steel-Reinforced Concrete), high-rise.

Keywords: typhoon, earthquake, Japan, catastrophe modelling, stochastic modeling, stratified sampling, loss model, ERM

Procedia PDF Downloads 234

Authors: Roy Y. C. Huang, J. S. Kuang, Hamdolah Behnam

Abstract:

Beam-column connections play an important role in the reinforced concrete moment resisting frame (RCMRF), which is one of the most commonly used structural systems around the world. The premature failure of such connections would severely limit the seismic performance and increase the vulnerability of RCMRF. In the past decades, researchers primarily focused on investigating the structural behaviour and failure mechanisms of conventional beam-column joints, the beam width of which is either smaller than or equal to the column width, while studies in wide beam-column joints were scarce. This paper presents the preliminary experimental results of two full-scale exterior wide beam-column connections, which are mainly designed and detailed according to ACI 318-14 and ACI 352R-02, under reversed cyclic loading. The ratios of the design shear force to the nominal shear strength of these specimens are 1.0 and 1.7, respectively, so as to probe into differences of the joint shear strength between experimental results and predictions by design codes of practice. Flexural failure dominated in the specimen with ratio of 1.0 in which full-width plastic hinges were observed, while both beam hinges and post-peak joint shear failure occurred for the other specimen. No sign of premature joint shear failure was found which is inconsistent with ACI codes’ prediction. Finally, a modification of current codes of practice is provided to accurately predict the joint shear strength in wide beam-column joint.

Keywords: joint shear strength, reversed cyclic loading, seismic vulnerability, wide beam-column joints

Procedia PDF Downloads 294

Authors: Abdelkader Hachemi, Boualem Remini

Abstract:

Seawater intrusion is a significant challenge faced by coastal aquifers in the Mediterranean basin. This study aims to determine the position of the sharp interface between seawater and freshwater in the aquifer of Wadi Nador, located in the Wilaya of Tipaza, Algeria. A numerical areal sharp interface model using the finite element method is developed to investigate the spatial and temporal behavior of seawater intrusion. The aquifer is assumed to be homogeneous and isotropic. The simulation results are compared with geophysical prospection data obtained through electrical methods in 2011 to validate the model. The simulation results demonstrate a good agreement with the geophysical prospection data, confirming the accuracy of the sharp interface model. The position of the sharp interface in the aquifer is found to be approximately 1617 meters from the sea. Two scenarios are proposed to predict the interface position for the year 2024: one without pumping and the other with pumping. The results indicate a noticeable retreat of the sharp interface position in the first scenario, while a slight decline is observed in the second scenario. The findings of this study provide valuable insights into the dynamics of seawater intrusion in the Wadi Nador aquifer. The predicted changes in the sharp interface position highlight the potential impact of pumping activities on the aquifer's vulnerability to seawater intrusion. This study emphasizes the importance of implementing measures to manage and mitigate seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers. The sharp interface model developed in this research can serve as a valuable tool for assessing and monitoring the vulnerability of aquifers to seawater intrusion.

Keywords: seawater intrusion, sharp interface, coastal aquifer, algeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 74

Authors: Jihan Zakarriya

Abstract:

This paper aims at examining the concepts of gender vulnerability, militarized spaces and environmental degradation in Egyptian novelist Radwa Ashour’s Specters (1999) and Iraqi novelist Betool Khadiri’s Absent (2005). Although the socio-economic, environmental and political conditions in the 1990s- Egypt and Iraq are different, this paper argues that Ashour’s Specters and Khadiri’s Absent show the two societies as sharing a concern with the politics of public participation, individual freedom and political violence. For example, while Specters exposes the planned processes of economic-political and cultural violence towards Egyptian environment and people that undermine concepts of justice, equality and democracy, Absent shows the destructive effects of the systematic, successive waves of (international) militarized interferences and socio-economic sanctions imposed on Iraq following the Gulf War that hinder efforts of social development and kindle ethnic-religious violence and polarization in the country. This paper investigates and relates issues of gender, environmental and political violence and repression in Ashour’s Specters and Khadiri’s Absent in relation to the concepts of public space and security in the two countries. The paper argues that the selected novels articulate a particular awareness of the political-international conflicts and difficulties in the 1990s-Egypt and Iraq, with the aim both to emphasize the issue of gender as a tool of oppression and power hierarchy worldwide and to figure out new notions of public participation and change.

Keywords: gender violence, public space, environment, change

Procedia PDF Downloads 106