Search results for: variance inflation factor (VIF)

Authors: Elias Udeaja, Elijah Udoh

Abstract:

Exploring an extended SVAR model (SVAR-X), we use the case of Nigeria to hypothesize for the role of uncertainty as the underlying source of asymmetries in the response of monetary policy to output and inflation. Deciphered the empirical finding is the potential of monetary policy exhibiting greater sensitive to shocks due to output growth than they do to shocks due to inflation in recession periods, while the reverse appears to be the case for a contractionary monetary policy. We also find the asymmetric preference in the response of monetary policy to changes in output and inflation as relatively more pronounced when we control for uncertainty as the underlying source of asymmetries.

Keywords: asymmetry response, developing economies, monetary policy shocks, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Roikhan Mochamad Aziz

Abstract:

This study aims to analze the interdependence of several variables simultaneously in order to simplify the form of the relationship between some of the variables studied a number of factors less than the variable studied which means it can also describe the data structure of a research. Based 100 respondents from the public, such as the people of South Tangerang, this study used factor analysis tool. The results of this study indicate that the studied variables being formed into nine factors, namely faith factors, community factors, factors of social care, confidence factor, factor income, educational factors, self-satisfaction factors, factors work, and knowledge factor. Total variance of the 9 factors is 67,30% means that all nine of these factors are factors that can contribute too paying zakat of muzakki consciousness of 67,30% while the remaining 32,70% is supported by other factors outside the 9 factors.

Keywords: zakat, analysis factor, faith, education, knowledge

Procedia PDF Downloads 239

Authors: Juan M. Rodriguez-Diaz

Abstract:

The precision of parameter estimators in the Gaussian linear model is traditionally accounted by the variance-covariance matrix of the asymptotic distribution. However, this measure can underestimate the true variance, specially for small samples. Traditionally, optimal design theory pays attention to this variance through its relationship with the model's information matrix. For this reason it seems convenient, at least in some cases, adapt the optimality criteria in order to get the best designs for the actual variance structure, otherwise the loss in efficiency of the designs obtained with the traditional approach may be very important.

Keywords: correlated observations, information matrix, optimality criteria, variance-covariance matrix

Procedia PDF Downloads 398

Authors: Elza Jurun, Damir Piplica, Tea Poklepović

Abstract:

Numerous studies carried out in the developed western democratic countries have shown that the ideological framework of the governing party has a significant influence on the monetary policy. The executive authority consisting of a left-wing party gives a higher weight to unemployment suppression and central bank implements a more expansionary monetary policy. On the other hand, right-wing governing party considers the monetary stability to be more important than unemployment suppression and in such a political framework the main macroeconomic objective becomes the inflation rate reduction. The political framework conditions in the transition countries which are new European Union (EU) members are still highly specific in relation to the other EU member countries. In the focus of this paper is the question whether the same monetary policy principles are valid in these transitional countries as well as they apply in developed western democratic EU member countries. The data base consists of inflation rate and unemployment rate for 11 transitional EU member countries covering the period from 2001 to 2012. The essential information for each of these 11 countries and for each year of the observed period is right or left political orientation of the ruling party. In this paper we use t-statistics to test our hypothesis that there are differences in inflation and unemployment between right and left political orientation of the governing party. To explore the influence of different countries, through years and different political orientations descriptive statistics is used. Inflation and unemployment should be strongly negatively correlated through time, which is tested using Pearson correlation coefficient. Regarding the fact whether the governing authority is consisted from left or right politically oriented parties, monetary authorities will adjust its policy setting the higher priority on lower inflation or unemployment reduction.

Keywords: inflation rate, monetary policy orientation, transition EU countries, unemployment rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 408

Authors: Ali Bakhtiari Gharibdosti, Mohammad Hosein Bijeh Keshavarzi, Samira Alijani

Abstract:

To understand internal characteristics relationships and determine factors which explain under consideration characteristics in rapeseed varieties, 10 rapeseed genotypes were implemented in complete accidental plot with three-time repetitions under drought stress in 2009-2010 in research field of agriculture college, Islamic Azad University, Karaj branch. In this research, 11 characteristics include of characteristics related to growth, production and functions stages was considered. Variance analysis results showed that there is a significant difference among rapeseed varieties characteristics. By calculating simple correlation coefficient under both conditions, normal and drought stress indicate that seed function characteristics in plant and pod number have positive and significant correlation in 1% probable level with seed function and selection on the base of these characteristics was effective for improving this function. Under normal and drought stress, analyzing the main factors showed that numbers of factors which have more than one amount, had five factors under normal conditions which were 82.72% of total variance totally, but under drought stress four factors diagnosed which were 76.78% of total variance. By considering total results of this research and by assessing effective characteristics for factor analysis and selecting different components of these characteristics, they can be used for modifying works to select applicable and tolerant genotypes in drought stress conditions.

Keywords: correlation, drought stress, factor analysis, rapeseed

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: N. C. Ghosh, Niladri Das, Prolay Mondal, Ranajit Ghosh

Abstract:

Groundwater quality deterioration due to human activities has become a prime factor of modern life. The major concern of the study is to access spatial variation of groundwater quality and to identify the sources of groundwater chemicals and its impact on human health of the concerned area. Multivariate statistical techniques, cluster, principal component analysis, and hydrochemical fancies are been applied to measure groundwater quality data on 14 parameters from 107 sites distributed randomly throughout the Birbhum district. Five factors have been extracted using Varimax rotation with Kaiser Normalization. The first factor explains 27.61% of the total variance where high positive loading have been concentrated in TH, Ca, Mg, Cl and F (Fluoride). In the studied region, due to the presence of basaltic Rajmahal trap fluoride contamination is highly concentrated and that has an adverse impact on human health such as fluorosis. The second factor explains 24.41% of the total variance which includes Na, HCO₃, EC, and SO₄. The last factor or the fifth factor explains 8.85% of the total variance, and it includes pH which maintains the acidic and alkaline character of the groundwater. Hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) grouped the 107 sampling station into two clusters. One cluster having high pollution and another cluster having less pollution. Moreover hydromorphological facies viz. Wilcox diagram, Doneen’s chart, and USSL diagram reveal the quality of the groundwater like the suitability of the groundwater for irrigation or water used for drinking purpose like permeability index of the groundwater, quality assessment of groundwater for irrigation. Gibb’s diagram depicts that the major portion of the groundwater of this region is rock dominated origin, as the western part of the region characterized by the Jharkhand plateau fringe comprises basalt, gneiss, granite rocks.

Keywords: correlation, factor analysis, hydrological facies, hydrochemistry

Procedia PDF Downloads 177

Authors: Cynthia Oluchi Akagha

Abstract:

This paper highlights the increase in production cost and the corresponding outcomes in Nigeria using six major manufacturing companies as a case study. During an inflationary period, the cost-of-living increases, which reduces the purchasing power of money. Inflation has become a severe issue in many countries recently. To examine how inflation affects the success of businesses in Nigeria, a quantitative approach and a focus on causality were utilized to examine six (6) functional Nigerian manufacturing enterprises. The correlation between business production cost, cost of items supplied, and gross profit from 2021-2022 was analyzed. The analysis recorded that the cost of production increased in 2022 compared to 2021. The expansion varied between the six companies by 77.1%. Only one company out of six reported a decrease in gross profit in 2022 compared to the previous year. The other five companies' profits increased between 6.5% and 87%. Companies like these have thrived despite the rising cost of living because they have adjusted by increasing their product pricing. Since this change has the most significant influence on consumers, the best long-term reaction for a corporation to inflationary effects is often an improvement in cost efficiency, output, or both.

Keywords: economic meltdown, inflation, organization, performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 38

Authors: Abdelli Soulaima, Belhadj Besma

Abstract:

The paper examines the choice of the central bank toward the movements of the nominal exchange rate and evaluates its effects on the volatility of the output growth and the inflation. The novel hybrid method of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium called the DSGE-VAR is proposed for analyzing this policy experiment in a small scale open economy in particular Tunisia. The contribution is provided to the empirical literature as we apply the Tunisian data with this model, which is rarely used in this context. Note additionally that the issue of treating the degree of response of the central bank to the exchange rate in Tunisia is special. To ameliorate the estimation, the Bayesian technique is carried out for the sample 1980:q1 to 2011 q4. Our results reveal that the central bank should not react or softly react to the exchange rate. The variance decomposition displayed that the overall inflation volatility is more pronounced with the fixed exchange rate regime for most of the shocks except for the productivity and the interest rate. The output volatility is also higher with this regime with the majority of the shocks exempting the foreign interest rate and the interest rate shocks.

Keywords: DSGE-VAR modeling, exchange rate, monetary policy, Bayesian estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 264

Authors: T. Bouchabchoub, A. Bendahmane, A. Haouriqui, N. Attou

Abstract:

This paper presents simulation results of Forex predicting model equations in order to give approximately a prevision of interest rates. First, Hall-Taylor (HT) equations have been used with Taylor rule (TR) to adapt them to European and American Forex Markets. Indeed, initial Taylor Rule equation is conceived for all Forex transactions in every States: It includes only one equation and six parameters. Here, the model has been used with Hall-Taylor equations, initially including twelve equations which have been reduced to only three equations. Analysis has been developed on the following base macroeconomic variables: Real change rate, investment wages, anticipated inflation, realized inflation, real production, interest rates, gap production and potential production. This model has been used to specifically study the impact of an inflation shock on macroeconomic director interest rates.

Keywords: interest rate, Forex, Taylor rule, production, European Central Bank (ECB), Federal Reserve System (FED).

Procedia PDF Downloads 494

Authors: Kara Gianina D. Rosas, Jade Emily L. Tong

Abstract:

This study assesses the vulnerability of households to food price shocks. Using the Philippines as a case study, the researchers aim to understand how such shocks can cause food insecurity in different types of households. This paper measures the impact of actual food price changes during the food crisis of 2006-2009 on poverty in relation to their spatial location. Households are classified as rural or urban and agricultural or non-agricultural. By treating food prices and consumption patterns as heterogeneous, this study differs from conventional poverty analysis as actual prices are used. Merging the Family, Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) with the Consumer Price Index dataset (CPI), the researchers were able to determine the effects on poverty measures, specifically, headcount index, poverty gap, and poverty severity. The study finds that, without other interventions, food inflation would lead to a significant increase in the number of households that fall below the poverty threshold, except for households whose income is derived from agricultural activities. It also finds that much of the inflation during these years was fueled by the rise in staple food prices. Essentially, this paper aims to broaden the economic perspective of policymakers with regard to the heterogeneity of impacts of inflation through analyzing the deeper microeconomic levels of different subgroups. In hopes of finding a solution to lessen the inequality gap of poverty between the rural and urban poor, this paper aims to aid policymakers in creating projects targeted towards food insecurity.

Keywords: poverty, food inflation, agricultural households, non-agricultural households, net consumption ratio, urban poor, rural poor, head count index, poverty gap, poverty severity

Procedia PDF Downloads 198

Authors: Salako Rotimi, Oshungade Stephen, Ojewoye Opeyemi

Abstract:

The maintenance of price stability is one of the macroeconomic challenges facing Nigeria as a nation. This paper attempts to build a co-integration multivariate time series model for inflation movement in Nigeria using data extracted from the abstract of statistics of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) from 2008 to 2017. The Johansen cointegration test suggests at least one co-integration vector describing the long run relationship between Consumer Price Index (CPI), Food Price Index (FPI) and Non-Food Price Index (NFPI). All three series show increasing pattern, which indicates a sign of non-stationary in each of the series. Furthermore, model predictability was established with root-mean-square-error, mean absolute error, mean average percentage error, and Theil’s unbiased statistics for n-step forecasting. The result depicts that the long run coefficient of a consumer price index (CPI) has a positive long-run relationship with the food price index (FPI) and non-food price index (NFPI).

Keywords: economic, inflation, model, series

Procedia PDF Downloads 212

Authors: Sukovatov K.Yu., Bezuglova N.N.

Abstract:

Winter precipitation variability over the Altai Krai was investigated by retrieving temporal patterns. The spectral singular analysis was used to describe the variance distribution and to reduce the precipitation data into a few components (modes). The associated time series were related to large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation indices by using lag cross-correlation and wavelet-coherence analysis. GPCC monthly precipitation data for rectangular field limited by 50-550N, 77-880E and monthly climatological circulation index data for the cold season were used to perform SSA decomposition and retrieve statistics for analyzed parameters on the time period 1951-2017. Interannual variability of winter precipitation over the Altai Krai are mostly caused by three natural factors: intensity variations of momentum exchange between mid and polar latitudes over the North Atlantic (explained variance 11.4%); wind speed variations in equatorial stratosphere (quasi-biennial oscillation, explained variance 15.3%); and surface temperature variations for equatorial Pacific sea (ENSO, explained variance 2.8%). It is concluded that under the current climate conditions (Arctic amplification and increasing frequency of meridional processes in mid-latitudes) the second and the third factors are giving more significant contribution into explained variance of interannual variability for cold season atmospheric precipitation over the Altai Krai than the first factor.

Keywords: interannual variability, winter precipitation, Altai Krai, wavelet-coherence

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Mirjana Dragas, Marli Gonan Bozac, Morena Paulisic

Abstract:

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) is a balance between strategic and financial goals of companies, as well as social needs. The integration of competitive strategy and CSR in food and beverage industry has allowed companies to find new sources of competitive advantage. The paper discusses the fact that socially responsible companies encourage co-operation with socially responsible suppliers in order to strengthen market competitiveness. In addition to the descriptive interpretation of the results obtained by a questionnaire, factor analysis was used, while principal components analysis was applied as a factor extraction method. The research results based on two multiple regression analyses show that: (1) selecting the CSR supplier explains a statistically significant part of the variance of the results on the scale of financial aspects of competitiveness (as much as 44.7% of the explained variance); and (2) selecting the CSR supplier is a significant predictor of non-financial aspects of competitiveness (explains 43.9% of the variance of the results on the scale of non-financial aspects of competitiveness). A successful competitive strategy must ultimately support the growth strategy. This implies an analytical approach to finding factors that influence competitiveness through socially sustainable solutions and satisfactory top management decisions.

Keywords: competitiveness, corporate social responsibility, food and beverage industry, supply chain decision making

Procedia PDF Downloads 320

Authors: Saba Riaz, Syed A. Hussain

Abstract:

This paper is addressing the estimation method of the unknown population variance of the variable of interest. A new generalized class of estimators of the finite population variance has been suggested using the auxiliary information. To improve the precision of the proposed class, known population variance of the auxiliary variable has been used. Mathematical expressions for the biases and the asymptotic variances of the suggested class are derived under large sample approximation. Theoretical and numerical comparisons are made to investigate the performances of the proposed class of estimators. The empirical study reveals that the suggested class of estimators performs better than the usual estimator, classical ratio estimator, classical product estimator and classical linear regression estimator. It has also been found that the suggested class of estimators is also more efficient than some recently published estimators.

Keywords: study variable, auxiliary variable, finite population variance, bias, asymptotic variance, percent relative efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 184

Authors: Md. Qamruzzaman, Wei Jianguo

Abstract:

Over the decade, it is observed that financial development, through financial innovation, not only accelerated development of efficient and effective financial system but also act as a catalyst in the economic development process. In this study, we try to explore insight about how financial innovation causes economic growth in Bangladesh by using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for the period of 1990-2014. Test of Cointegration confirms the existence of a long-run association between financial innovation and economic growth. For investigating directional causality, we apply Granger causality test and estimation explore that long-run growth will be affected by capital flow from non-bank financial institutions and inflation in the economy but changes of growth rate do not have any impact on Capital flow in the economy and level of inflation in long-run. Whereas, growth and Market capitalization, as well as market capitalization and capital flow, confirm feedback hypothesis. Variance decomposition suggests that any innovation in the financial sector can cause GDP variation fluctuation in both long run and short run. Financial innovation promotes efficiency and cost in financial transactions in the financial system, can boost economic development process. The study proposed two policy recommendations for further development. First, innovation friendly financial policy should formulate to encourage adaption and diffusion of financial innovation in the financial system. Second, operation of financial market and capital market should be regulated with implementation of rules and regulation to create conducive environment.

Keywords: financial innovation, economic growth, GDP, financial institution, VECM

Procedia PDF Downloads 220

Authors: V. Rao, A. Bedford

Abstract:

As the efficient performance of national grid becomes increasingly important to maintain the electrical network stability, the balance between the generation and the demand must be effectively maintained. To do this, any losses that occur in the power network must be reduced by compensating for it. In this paper, one of the main cause for the losses in the network is identified as the variance, which hinders the grid’s power carrying capacity. The reason for the variance in the grid is investigated and identified as the rise in the integration of renewable energy sources (RES) such as wind and solar power. The intermittent nature of these RES along with fluctuating demands gives rise to variance in the electrical network. The losses that occur during this process is estimated by analyzing the network’s power profiles. Whilst researchers have identified different ways to tackle this problem, little consideration is given to energy storage. This paper seeks to redress this by considering the role of energy storage systems as potential solutions to reduce variance in the network. The implementation of suitable energy storage systems based on different applications is presented in this paper as part of variance reduction method and thus contribute towards maintaining a stable and efficient grid operation.

Keywords: energy storage, electrical losses, national grid, renewable energy, variance

Procedia PDF Downloads 279

Authors: John M. Basey, Clinton D. Francis, Maxwell B. Joseph

Abstract:

After gathering data from experimental procedures, inquiry-oriented-science labs often allow students the freedom to stay and complete the write up in class or leave lab early and complete the write up later. Teachers must decide whether to allow students this freedom to self-regulate this time. Student interviews have indicated four time-target strategies that may influence how students utilize this time: grade-target-A, grade-target-C, time-limited, and proficiency. The hypothesis tested was that variability in class composition relative to the four grade-target strategies has an impact on when students leave class, which in turn may influence their overall learning as exemplified by grades. Students were divided into the four indicated groups with a survey. Class composition and the GTA teaching the class had significant impacts on how long students stayed in class with class composition having the greatest impact. A factor analysis identified two factors. Factor 1 included classes with percentages of grade-target students opposite time-limited/proficiency students and explained 43% of the variance. Factor 2 included classes with percentages of grade-target-A/proficiency students opposite grade-target-C students and explained 33% of the variance. Students who stayed longer received significantly higher grades (P = 0.008) with no significant relationships between grade and Factor 1 or Factor 2 (P > 0.05). The time students stayed in class was significantly positively related to Factor 1 (P = 0.006) and significantly negatively related to Factor 2 (P = 0.008). These results support the hypothesis and indicate that teachers may want to know the composition of student-target strategies before deciding on how to have students allocate study time at the end of inquiry-oriented labs. According to these results, ideal classes for self-regulation have a high proportion of proficiency and time-limited students and a low proportion of grade-target students, or a high proportion of grade-target-A and proficiency students and a low proportion of grade-target-C students. Non-ideal classes for self-regulation were comprised of the inverse proportions.

Keywords: grades, inquiry lab design, synergism in student motivation, class composition

Procedia PDF Downloads 90

Authors: Ndeye Tiguida Sarr, Onur Akpinar

Abstract:

The tourism industry, being the sector that includes all the activities related to the organization and satisfaction of tourists during their trip, also has a very important role in the national economy of the host country. In order to measure the stakes of tourism on the economy, microeconomic and macroeconomic factors are elements of analysis. While microeconomics is limited to an individual perspective, macroeconomics extends to a global perspective and treats the economy as a whole by focusing on social and economic actors in general. It is in this context that this study focuses on macroeconomic variables in order to determine the factors that influence the financial performance of tourism firms in Turkey, which is one of the world's major destinations. The aim of the study is to demonstrate the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the financial performance of tourism firms. Data from 2011 to 2020 are collected, from a sample of 16 companies that represent the tourism sector in Borsa Istanbul. Tobin’s Q ratio, Market to Book ratio, Return on Invested Capital, and Return on Assets as the financial performance indicators were dependent variables of the study. Gross Domestic Products, Inflation, Interest Rates, and Unemployment as macroeconomic indicators were independent variables. Again, Size, Liquidity, Leverage, and Age were control variables of the study. According to the results, value indicators, which are Tobin’s Q ratio and Market to Book ratio, have a statistically significant relationship with Inflation, Interest Rates, and Unemployment. A negative relationship is found between value indicators and Interest rates and a positive relationship between value indicators and Unemployment and Inflation. On the other hand, there is no significant relationship between profit indicators (Return on Invested Capital and Return on Assets) and macroeconomic variables. Accordingly, Interest rates negatively affect the financial performance of tourism firms and stand out as a factor that decreases the value.

Keywords: financial performance, macroeconomic variables, panel data, Tobin Q

Procedia PDF Downloads 96

Authors: Fatimah Opebiyi

Abstract:

Economic growth promotion, inflation reduction and consumer protection are among the core public interest aims of governments. Nevertheless, higher rates of default by consumers in relation to credit card loans and mortgages in recent times illustrate that government’s performance in balancing the protection of the economy and consumer is subpar. This thereby raises an important question on the role of government in protecting consumers during prolonged spells of inflation, particularly when such inflationary trends may be traceable to the acts of the government. Adopting a doctrinal research methodology, this article investigates the evolution of the concept of consumer protection in the United Kingdom and also brings to the fore the tensions and conflicts of interests in the aims and practices of the main regulators within the financial services industry. Relying on public interest theories of regulation and responsive regulatory theory, the article explores the limitations in the state’s ability to strike the right balance in meeting regulatory aims of the regulatory agencies at the opposite ends of the spectrum.

Keywords: financial regulation, consumer protection, prudential regulation, public interest theories of regulation, central bank

Procedia PDF Downloads 32

Authors: Wasfi Al Salamat, Shaker Al-Kharouf

Abstract:

This study aims to examine the determinants of financial stability for 13 commercial banks listed on the Amman stock exchange (ASE) over the period (2007-2016) after controlling for the independent variables: return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), earnings per share (EPS), growth in gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rate and debt ratio to measure the financial stability by three main variables: capital adequacy, non-performing loans and the number of returned checks. The balanced panel data statistical approach has been used for data analysis. Results are estimated by using multiple regression models. The empirical results suggested that there is statistically significant negative effect of inflation rate and debt ratio on the capital adequacy while there is statistically significant positive effect of growth in gross domestic product on capital adequacy. In contrast, there is statistically significant negative effect of return on equity and growth in gross domestic product on the non-performing loans while there is statistically significant positive effect of inflation rate on non-performing loans. Finally, there is statistically significant negative effect of growth in gross domestic product on the number of returned checks while there is statistically significant positive effect of inflation rate on the number of returned checks.

Keywords: capital adequacy, financial stability, non-performing loans, number of returned checks, ASE

Procedia PDF Downloads 180

Authors: Man-Yu Wong, Siyu Zhou, Zhiqiang Cao

Abstract:

In quality of life, health service utilization is an important determinant of medical resource expenditures on Colorectal cancer (CRC) care, a better understanding of the increased utilization of health services is essential for optimizing the allocation of healthcare resources to services and thus for enhancing the service quality, especially for high expenditure on CRC care like Hong Kong region. In assessing the association between the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and health service utilization in patients with colorectal neoplasm, count data models can be used, which account for over dispersion or extra zero counts. In our data, the HRQOL evaluation is a self-reported measure obtained from a questionnaire completed by the patients, misreports and variations in the data are inevitable. Besides, there are more zero counts from the observed number of clinical consultations (observed frequency of zero counts = 206) than those from a Poisson distribution with mean equal to 1.33 (expected frequency of zero counts = 156). This suggests that excess of zero counts may exist. Therefore, we study tests for detecting zero-inflation in models with measurement error in covariates. Method: Under classical measurement error model, the approximate likelihood function for zero-inflation Poisson regression model can be obtained, then Approximate Maximum Likelihood Estimation(AMLE) can be derived accordingly, which is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. By calculating score function and Fisher information based on AMLE, a score test is proposed to detect zero-inflation effect in ZIP model with measurement error. The proposed test follows asymptotically standard normal distribution under H0, and it is consistent with the test proposed for zero-inflation effect when there is no measurement error. Results: Simulation results show that empirical power of our proposed test is the highest among existing tests for zero-inflation in ZIP model with measurement error. In real data analysis, with or without considering measurement error in covariates, existing tests, and our proposed test all imply H0 should be rejected with P-value less than 0.001, i.e., zero-inflation effect is very significant, ZIP model is superior to Poisson model for analyzing this data. However, if measurement error in covariates is not considered, only one covariate is significant; if measurement error in covariates is considered, only another covariate is significant. Moreover, the direction of coefficient estimations for these two covariates is different in ZIP regression model with or without considering measurement error. Conclusion: In our study, compared to Poisson model, ZIP model should be chosen when assessing the association between condition-specific HRQOL and health service utilization in patients with colorectal neoplasm. and models taking measurement error into account will result in statistically more reliable and precise information.

Keywords: count data, measurement error, score test, zero inflation

Procedia PDF Downloads 254

Authors: Tuji Mohammed Sani

Abstract:

Back ground: An open tibial fracture is an injury where the fractured bone directly communicates with the outside environment. Due to the specific anatomical features of the tibia (limited soft tissue coverage), more than quarter of its fractures are classified as open, representing the most common open long-bone injuries. Open tibial fractures frequently cause significant bone comminution, periosteal stripping, soft tissue loss, contamination and are prone to bacterial entry with biofilm formation, which increases the risk of deep bone infection. Objective: The main objective of the study was to determine Prevalence of infection and its associated factors in surgically treated open tibial fracture in Addis Ababa Burn Emergency and Trauma (AaBET) center. Method: A facility based retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted among patient treated for open tibial fracture at AaBET center from September 2018 to September 2021. The data was collected from patient’s chart using structured data collection form, and Data was entered and analyzed using SPSS version 26. Bivariable and multiple binary logistic regression were fitted. Multicollinearity was checked among candidate variables using variance inflation factor and tolerance, which were less than 5 and greater than 0.2, respectively. Model adequacy were tested using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fitness test (P=0.711). AOR at 95% CI was reported, and P-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Result: This study found that 33.9% of the study participants had an infection. Initial IV antibiotic time (AOR=2.924, 95% CI:1.160- 7.370) and time of wound closure from injury (AOR=3.524, 95% CI: 1.798-6.908), injury to admission time (AOR=2.895, 95% CI: 1.402 – 5.977). and definitive fixation method (AOR=0.244, 95% CI: 0.113 – 0.4508) were the factors found to have a statistically significant association with the occurrence of infection. Conclusion: The rate of infection in open tibial fractures indicates that there is a need to improve the management of open tibial fracture treated at AaBET center. Time from injury to admission, time from injury to first debridement, wound closure time, and initial Intra Venous antibiotic time from the injury are an important factor that can be readily amended to improve the infection rate. Whether wound closed before seven days or not were more important factor associated with occurrences of infection.

Keywords: infection, open tibia, fracture, magnitude

Procedia PDF Downloads 42

Authors: Elad Harison

Abstract:

The paper identifies the complex links between post-COVID-19 inflationary pressures and global supply chains. Throughout the COVID-19 lockdowns and long periods after the termination of social distancing policies, consumers, notably in the U.S., have confronted and still face disruptions in the supply of goods. The study analyzes the monetary policy in the U.S. that led to the significant shift in consumer demand during a limited supply period, hence resulting in shortages and emphasizing inflationary dynamics. We argue that the monetary guidelines applied by the U.S. government further elevated the scope of supply chain disruptions.

Keywords: consumer demand, COVID-19, inflation, monetary policy, supply chain

Procedia PDF Downloads 62

Authors: Chaiyaset Promsri

Abstract:

Based on the synthesis of related literatures, this research found thirteen related dimensions that involved the development of natural disaster preparedness awareness including hazard knowledge, hazard attitude, training for disaster preparedness, rehearsal and practice for disaster preparedness, cultural development for preparedness, public relations and communication, storytelling, disaster awareness game, simulation, past experience to natural disaster, information sharing with family members, and commitment to the community (time of living).  The 40-item of natural disaster preparedness awareness questionnaire was developed based on these thirteen dimensions. Data were collected from 595 participants in Bangkok metropolitan and vicinity. Cronbach's alpha was used to examine the internal consistency for this instrument. Reliability coefficient was 97, which was highly acceptable.  Exploratory Factor Analysis where principal axis factor analysis was employed. The Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin index of sampling adequacy was .973, indicating that the data represented a homogeneous collection of variables suitable for factor analysis. Bartlett's test of Sphericity was significant for the sample as Chi-Square = 23168.657, df = 780, and p-value < .0001, which indicated that the set of correlations in the correlation matrix was significantly different and acceptable for utilizing EFA. Factor extraction was done to determine the number of factors by using principal component analysis and varimax.  The result revealed that four factors had Eigen value greater than 1 with more than 60% cumulative of variance. Factor #1 had Eigen value of 22.270, and factor loadings ranged from 0.626-0.760. This factor was named as "Knowledge and Attitude of Natural Disaster Preparedness".  Factor #2 had Eigen value of 2.491, and factor loadings ranged from 0.596-0.696. This factor was named as "Training and Development". Factor #3 had Eigen value of 1.821, and factor loadings ranged from 0.643-0.777. This factor was named as "Building Experiences about Disaster Preparedness".  Factor #4 had Eigen value of 1.365, and factor loadings ranged from 0.657-0.760. This was named as "Family and Community". The results of this study provided support for the reliability and construct validity of natural disaster preparedness awareness for utilizing with populations similar to sample employed.

Keywords: natural disaster, disaster preparedness, disaster awareness, Thai citizens

Procedia PDF Downloads 342

Authors: Can Zhang, Qun Li, Yonglin Lei, Zhi Zhu, Dong Guo

Abstract:

Aiming at the problem of factor screen in distributed collaborative navigation of dense UAV swarm, an efficient distributed collaborative navigation factor screen method is proposed. The method considered the balance between computing load and positioning accuracy. The proposed algorithm utilized the factor graph model to implement a distributed collaborative navigation algorithm. The GNSS information of the UAV itself and the ranging information between the UAVs are used as the positioning factors. In this distributed scheme, a local factor graph is established for each UAV. The positioning factors of nodes with good geometric position distribution and small variance are selected to participate in the navigation calculation. To demonstrate and verify the proposed methods, the simulation and experiments in different scenarios are performed in this research. Simulation results show that the proposed scheme achieves a good balance between the computing load and positioning accuracy in the distributed cooperative navigation calculation of UAV swarm. This proposed algorithm has important theoretical and practical value for both industry and academic areas.

Keywords: screen method, cooperative positioning system, UAV swarm, factor graph, cooperative navigation

Procedia PDF Downloads 42

Authors: Taisiia Gorshkova

Abstract:

Since the 1980s, spatial correlation models have been used more often to model regional indicators. An increasingly popular method for studying regional indicators is modeling taking into account spatial relationships between objects that are part of the same economic zone. In 2000s the new class of model – spatial vector autoregressions was developed. The main difference between standard and spatial vector autoregressions is that in the spatial VAR (SpVAR), the values of indicators at time t may depend on the values of explanatory variables at the same time t in neighboring regions and on the values of explanatory variables at time t-k in neighboring regions. Thus, VAR is a special case of SpVAR in the absence of spatial lags, and the spatial panel data model is a special case of spatial VAR in the absence of time lags. Two specifications of SpVAR were applied to Russian regional data for 2000-2017. The values of GRP and regional CPI are used as endogenous variables. The lags of GRP, CPI and the unemployment rate were used as explanatory variables. For comparison purposes, the standard VAR without spatial correlation was used as “naïve” model. In the first specification of SpVAR the unemployment rate and the values of depending variables, GRP and CPI, in neighboring regions at the same moment of time t were included in equations for GRP and CPI respectively. To account for the values of indicators in neighboring regions, the adjacency weight matrix is used, in which regions with a common sea or land border are assigned a value of 1, and the rest - 0. In the second specification the values of depending variables in neighboring regions at the moment of time t were replaced by these values in the previous time moment t-1. According to the results obtained, when inflation and GRP of neighbors are added into the model both inflation and GRP are significantly affected by their previous values, and inflation is also positively affected by an increase in unemployment in the previous period and negatively affected by an increase in GRP in the previous period, which corresponds to economic theory. GRP is not affected by either the inflation lag or the unemployment lag. When the model takes into account lagged values of GRP and inflation in neighboring regions, the results of inflation modeling are practically unchanged: all indicators except the unemployment lag are significant at a 5% significance level. For GRP, in turn, GRP lags in neighboring regions also become significant at a 5% significance level. For both spatial and “naïve” VARs the RMSE were calculated. The minimum RMSE are obtained via SpVAR with lagged explanatory variables. Thus, according to the results of the study, it can be concluded that SpVARs can accurately model both the actual values of macro indicators (particularly CPI and GRP) and the general situation in the regions

Keywords: forecasting, regional data, spatial econometrics, vector autoregression

Procedia PDF Downloads 100

Authors: Ezeoke Callistus Obiora, Ezeoke Nneka Angela

Abstract:

The study investigated the effect of deficit financing on macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. The specific objectives included to find out the relationship between deficit financing and GDP, interest rate, inflation rate, money supply, exchange rate and private investment respectively on a time series covering a period of 44 years (1970 – 2013). The Ordinary Least Square multiple regression produced statistics for the coefficient of determination (R2), F-test, t-test used for the interpretation of the study. The findings revealed that Deficit financing has significant positive effect on GDP and exchange rate. Again, deficit financing has a positive and insignificant relationship inflation, money supply and investment. Only interest rate recorded negative yet insignificant relationship with deficit financing. The implications of the findings are that deficit financing can be a veritable tool for boosting economic development in Nigeria, but the influential positively rising exchange rate implies that deficit financing devalues the Naira exchange rate to other currencies indicating that deficit financing can affect Nigerians competitive advantage at the world market. Thus, the study concludes that deficit financing has not encouraged economic growth in Nigeria.

Keywords: deficit financing, money supply, exchange rate, inflation, GDP, investment, Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 436

Authors: Rihab Belguith, Fathi Abid

Abstract:

The paper develops a system-based approach to investigate the dynamic adjustment of debt structure and investment policies of the Dow-Jones index. This approach enables the assessment of relations among sales, debt, and investment opportunities by considering the simultaneous effect of the market environmental change and future growth opportunities. We integrate the firm-specific sales variance to capture the industries' conditions in the model. Empirical results were obtained through a panel data set of firms with different sectors. The analysis support that environmental change does not affect equally the different industry since operating leverage differs among industries and so the sensitivity to sales variance. Including adjusted-specific variance, we find that there is no monotonic relation between leverage, sales, and investment. The firm may choose a low debt level in response to high sales variance but high leverage to attenuate the negative relation between sales variance and the current level of investment. We further find that while the overall effect of debt maturity on leverage is unaffected by the level of growth opportunities, the shorter the maturity of debt is, the smaller the direct effect of sales variance on investment.

Keywords: dynamic panel, investment, leverage decision, sales uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 200

Authors: Vimanyu Chadha, Ranganath M. Singari

Abstract:

Drilling composite materials is a frequently practiced machining process during assembling in various industries such as automotive and aerospace. However, drilling of glass fiber reinforced plastic (GFRP) composites is significantly affected by damage tendency of these materials under cutting forces such as thrust force and torque. The aim of this paper is to investigate the influence of the various cutting parameters such as cutting speed and feed rate; subsequently also to study the influence of number of layers on delamination produced while drilling a GFRP composite. A plan of experiments, based on Taguchi techniques, was instituted considering drilling with prefixed cutting parameters in a hand lay-up GFRP material. The damage induced associated with drilling GFRP composites were measured. Moreover, Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was performed to obtain minimization of delamination influenced by drilling parameters and number layers. The optimum drilling factor combination was obtained by using the analysis of signal-to-noise ratio. The conclusion revealed that feed rate was the most influential factor on the delamination. The best results of the delamination were obtained with composites with a greater number of layers at lower cutting speeds and feed rates.

Keywords: analysis of variance, delamination, design optimization, drilling, glass fiber reinforced plastic composites, Taguchi method

Procedia PDF Downloads 224

Authors: Andi Darmawan, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro, Purnami Widyaningsih

Abstract:

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a chronic disease in human that occurred if pancreas cannot produce enough of insulin hormone or the body uses ineffectively insulin hormone which causes increasing level of glucose in the blood, or it was called hyperglycemia. In Indonesia, DM is a serious disease on health because it can cause blindness, kidney disease, diabetic feet (gangrene), and stroke. The type of DM criteria can also be divided based on the main causes; they are DM type 1, type 2, and gestational. Diabetes type 1 or previously known as insulin-independent diabetes is due to a lack of production of insulin hormone. Diabetes type 2 or previously known as non-insulin dependent diabetes is due to ineffective use of insulin while gestational diabetes is a hyperglycemia that found during pregnancy. The most one type commonly found in patient is DM type 2. The main factors of this disease are genetic (A) and life style (E). Those disease with 2 factors can be constructed with additive genetic and unique environment (AE) model. In this article was discussed parameter estimation of AE model using Bayesian method and the inheritance character simulation on parent-offspring. On the AE model, there are response variable, predictor variables, and parameters were capable of representing the number of population on research. The population can be measured through a taken random sample. The response and predictor variables can be determined by sample while the parameters are unknown, so it was required to estimate the parameters based on the sample. Estimation of AE model parameters was obtained based on a joint posterior distribution. The simulation was conducted to get the value of genetic variance and life style variance. The results of simulation are 0.3600 for genetic variance and 0.0899 for life style variance. Therefore, the variance of genetic factor in DM type 2 is greater than life style.

Keywords: AE model, Bayesian method, diabetes mellitus type 2, genetic, life style

Procedia PDF Downloads 240