Search results for: uncertainty quantification

Authors: Hamideh S. Shahidi

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This research examines destination image and its impact on tourist revisit intention. Destination images can evolve over time, depending on a number of factors. Due to the multidimensional nature of destination image, the full extent of what might influence that change is not yet fully understood. As a result, the destination image should be measured with a heavy consideration of the variables used. Depending on the time and circumstances, these variables should be adjusted based on the research’s objectives. The aim of this research is to evaluate the image of destinations that may be perceived as risky, such as Iran, from the perspective of European cultural travellers. Further to the goal of understanding the effects of an image on tourists’ decision-making, the research will assess the impact of destination image on the revisit intention using push and pull factors and perceived risks with the potential moderating effect of cultural contact (the direct interaction between the host and the tourists with different culture). In addition, the moderating effect of uncertainty avoidance on revisit intention after Iran’s crisis in 2022 will be measured. Furthermore, the level of uncertainty avoidance between gender and age will be compared.

Keywords: destination image, Iran’s 2022 crisis, revisit intention, uncertainty avoidance

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Authors: Anita Lazurko, Laszlo Pinter, Jeremy Richardson

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Uncertain climate projections, multiple possible development futures, and a financing gap create challenges for water infrastructure decision making. In contrast to conventional predict-plan-act methods, an emerging decision paradigm that enables social-ecological resilience supports decisions that are appropriate for uncertainty and leverage social, ecological, and economic multifunctionality. Concurrently, water infrastructure project finance plays a powerful role in sustainable infrastructure development but remains disconnected from discourse in socio-ecological resilience. At the time of research, a project to transfer water from Lesotho to Botswana through South Africa in the Orange-Senqu River Basin was at the pre-feasibility stage. This case was analysed through documents and interviews to investigate how uncertainty and multifunctionality are conceptualised and considered in decisions for the resilience of water infrastructure and to explore bridging concepts that might allow project finance to better enable socio-ecological resilience. Interviewees conceptualised uncertainty as risk, ambiguity and ignorance, and multifunctionality as politically-motivated shared benefits. Numerous efforts to adopt emerging decision methods that consider these terms were in use but required compromises to accommodate the persistent, conventional decision paradigm, though a range of future opportunities was identified. Bridging these findings to finance revealed opportunities to consider a more comprehensive scope of risk, to leverage risk mitigation measures, to diffuse risks and benefits over space, time and to diverse actor groups, and to clarify roles to achieve multiple objectives for resilience. In addition to insights into how multiple decision paradigms interact in real-world decision contexts, the research highlights untapped potential at the juncture between socio-ecological resilience and project finance.

Keywords: socio-ecological resilience, finance, multifunctionality, uncertainty

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Authors: Marcel Meinhardt, Manfred Keuser, Thomas Braml

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Cracking of reinforced concrete is a complex phenomenon induced by direct loads or restraints affecting reinforced concrete structures as soon as the tensile strength of the concrete is exceeded. Hence it is important to predict where cracks will be located and how they will propagate. The bond theory and the crack formulas in the actual design codes, for example, DIN EN 1992-1-1, are all based on the assumption that the reinforcement bars are embedded in homogeneous concrete without taking into account the influence of transverse reinforcement and the real stress situation. However, it can often be observed that real structures such as walls, slabs or beams show a crack spacing that is orientated to the transverse reinforcement bars or to the stirrups. In most Finite Element Analysis studies, the smeared crack approach is used for crack prediction. The disadvantage of this model is that the typical strain localization of a crack on element level can’t be seen. The crack propagation in concrete is a discontinuous process characterized by different factors such as the initial random distribution of defects or the scatter of material properties. Such behavior presupposes the elaboration of adequate models and methods of simulation because traditional mechanical approaches deal mainly with average material parameters. This paper concerned with the modelling of the initiation and the propagation of cracks in reinforced concrete structures considering the influence of transverse reinforcement and the real stress distribution in reinforced concrete (R/C) beams/plates in bending action. Therefore, a parameter study was carried out to investigate: (I) the influence of the transversal reinforcement to the stress distribution in concrete in bending mode and (II) the crack initiation in dependence of the diameter and distance of the transversal reinforcement to each other. The numerical investigations on the crack initiation and propagation were carried out with a 2D reinforced concrete structure subjected to quasi static loading and given boundary conditions. To model the uncertainty in the tensile strength of concrete in the Finite Element Analysis correlated normally and lognormally distributed random filed with different correlation lengths were generated. The paper also presents and discuss different methods to generate random fields, e.g. the Covariance Matrix Decomposition Method. For all computations, a plastic constitutive law with softening was used to model the crack initiation and the damage of the concrete in tension. It was found that the distributions of crack spacing and crack widths are highly dependent of the used random field. These distributions are validated to experimental studies on R/C panels which were carried out at the Laboratory for Structural Engineering at the University of the German Armed Forces in Munich. Also, a recommendation for parameters of the random field for realistic modelling the uncertainty of the tensile strength is given. The aim of this research was to show a method in which the localization of strains and cracks as well as the influence of transverse reinforcement on the crack initiation and propagation in Finite Element Analysis can be seen.

Keywords: crack initiation, crack modelling, crack propagation, cracks, numerical simulation, random fields, reinforced concrete, stochastic

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Authors: Muhammad A. Alsubaie, Mubarak K. H. Alhajri, Tarek S. Altowaim

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A repetitive controller designed to accommodate periodic disturbances via state feedback is discussed. Periodic disturbances can be represented by a time delay model in a positive feedback loop acting on system output. A direct use of the small gain theorem solves the periodic disturbances problem via 1) isolating the delay model, 2) finding the overall system representation around the delay model and 3) designing a feedback controller that assures overall system stability and tracking error convergence. This paper addresses uncertainty conditions for the repetitive controller designed in state feedback in either past error feedforward or current error feedback using singular values. The uncertainty investigation is based on the overall system found and the stability condition associated with it; depending on the scheme used, to set an upper/lower limit weighting parameter. This creates a region that should not be exceeded in selecting the weighting parameter which in turns assures performance improvement against system uncertainty. Repetitive control problem can be described in lifted form. This allows the usage of singular values principle in setting the range for the weighting parameter selection. The Simulation results obtained show a tracking error convergence against dynamic system perturbation if the weighting parameter chosen is within the range obtained. Simulation results also show the advantage of weighting parameter usage compared to the case where it is omitted.

Keywords: model mismatch, repetitive control, singular values, state feedback

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Authors: Song Zhang, Hui Wang, Johannes Henrich Schleifenbaum

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Due to the increasing demand for quality assurance and reliability for additive manufacturing, the development of an advanced in-situ monitoring system is required to monitor the process anomalies as input for further process control. Optical-based monitoring systems, such as CMOS cameras and NIR cameras, are proved as effective ways to monitor the geometrical distortion and exceptional thermal distribution. Therefore, many studies and applications are focusing on the availability of the optical-based monitoring system for detecting varied types of defects. However, the capability of the monitoring setup is not quantified. In this study, a quantification model to evaluate the capability of the monitoring setups for the LPBF machine based on acquired monitoring data of a designed test artifact is presented, while the design of the relevant test artifacts is discussed. The monitoring setup is evaluated based on its hardware properties, location of the integration, and light condition. Methodology of data processing to quantify the capacity for each aspect is discussed. The minimal capability of the detectable size of the monitoring set up in the application is estimated by quantifying its resolution and accuracy. The quantification model is validated using a CCD camera-based monitoring system for LPBF machines in the laboratory with different setups. The result shows the model to quantify the monitoring system's performance, which makes the evaluation of monitoring systems with the same concept but different setups possible for the LPBF process and provides the direction to improve the setups.

Keywords: data processing, in-situ monitoring, LPBF process, optical system, quantization model, test artifact

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Authors: Deon de Jager, Yahya Zweiri, Dimitrios Makris

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The three most important components in the cognitive architecture for cognitive robotics is memory representation, memory recall, and action-selection performed by the executive. In this paper, action selection, performed by the executive, is defined as a memory quantification and optimization process. The methodology describes the real-time construction of episodic memory through semantic memory optimization. The optimization is performed by set-based particle swarm optimization, using an adaptive entropy memory quantification approach for fitness evaluation. The performance of the approach is experimentally evaluated by simulation, where a UAV is tasked with the collection and delivery of a medical package. The experiments show that the UAV dynamically uses the episodic memory to autonomously control its velocity, while successfully completing its mission.

Keywords: cognitive robotics, semantic memory, episodic memory, maximum entropy principle, particle swarm optimization

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Authors: Hossein Afzali

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Increasingly, decision analytic models are used to inform decisions about whether or not to publicly fund new health technologies. It is well noted that the accuracy of model predictions is strongly influenced by the appropriateness of model structuring. However, there is relatively inadequate methodological guidance surrounding this issue in guidelines developed by national funding bodies such as the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee (PBAC) and The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in the UK. This presentation aims to discuss issues around model structuring within decision making with a focus on (1) the need for a transparent and evidence-based model structuring process to inform the most appropriate set of structural aspects as the base case analysis; (2) the need to characterise structural uncertainty (If there exist alternative plausible structural assumptions (or judgements), there is a need to appropriately characterise the related structural uncertainty). The presentation will provide an opportunity to share ideas and experiences on how the guidelines developed by national funding bodies address the above issues and identify areas for further improvements. First, a review and analysis of the literature and guidelines developed by PBAC and NICE will be provided. Then, it will be discussed how the issues around model structuring (including structural uncertainty) are not handled and justified in a systematic way within the decision-making process, its potential impact on the quality of public funding decisions, and how it should be presented in submissions to national funding bodies. This presentation represents a contribution to the good modelling practice within the decision-making process. Although the presentation focuses on the PBAC and NICE guidelines, the discussion can be applied more widely to many other national funding bodies that use economic evaluation to inform funding decisions but do not transparently address model structuring issues e.g. the Medical Services Advisory Committee (MSAC) in Australia or the Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health.

Keywords: decision-making process, economic evaluation, good modelling practice, structural uncertainty

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Authors: R. F. Vieira, S. A. Figueiredo, O. M. Freitas, V. F. Domingues, C. Delerue-Matos

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The presence of sulphur compounds like hydrogen sulphide and mercaptans is one of the reasons for waste-water treatment and waste management being associated with odour emissions. In this context having a quantifying method for these compounds helps in the optimization of treatment with the goal of their elimination, namely biofiltration processes. The aim of this study was the development of a method for quantification of odorous gases in waste treatment plants air samples. A method based on head space solid phase microextraction (HS-SPME) coupled with gas chromatography - flame photometric detector (GC-FPD) was used to analyse H2S and Metil Mercaptan (MM). The extraction was carried out with a 75-μm Carboxen-polydimethylsiloxane fiber coating at 22 ºC for 20 min, and analysed by a GC 2010 Plus A from Shimadzu with a sulphur filter detector: splitless mode (0.3 min), the column temperature program was from 60 ºC, increased by 15 ºC/min to 100 ºC (2 min). The injector temperature was held at 250 ºC, and the detector at 260 ºC. For calibration curve a gas diluter equipment (digital Hovagas G2 - Multi Component Gas Mixer) was used to do the standards. This unit had two input connections, one for a stream of the dilute gas and another for a stream of nitrogen and an output connected to a glass bulb. A 40 ppm H2S and a 50 ppm MM cylinders were used. The equipment was programmed to the selected concentration, and it automatically carried out the dilution to the glass bulb. The mixture was left flowing through the glass bulb for 5 min and then the extremities were closed. This method allowed the calibration between 1-20 ppm for H2S and 0.02-0.1 ppm and 1-3.5 ppm for MM. Several quantifications of air samples from inlet and outlet of a biofilter operating in a waste management facility in the north of Portugal allowed the evaluation the biofilters performance.

Keywords: biofiltration, hydrogen sulphide, mercaptans, quantification

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Authors: Anik Sarminingsih, Krishna V. Pradana

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The failure of flood control system can be caused by various factors, such as not considering the uncertainty of designed flood causing the capacity of the flood control system is exceeded. The presence of the uncertainty factor is recognized as a serious issue in hydrological studies. Uncertainty in hydrological analysis is influenced by many factors, starting from reading water elevation data, rainfall data, selection of method of analysis, etc. In hydrological modeling selection of models and parameters corresponding to the watershed conditions should be evaluated by the hydraulic model in the river as a drainage channel. River cross-section capacity is the first defense in knowing the reliability of the flood control system. Reliability of river capacity describes the potential magnitude of flood risk. Case study in this research is Wulan River in Central Java. This river occurring flood almost every year despite some efforts to control floods such as levee, floodway and diversion. The flood-affected areas include several sub-districts, mainly in Kabupaten Kudus and Kabupaten Demak. First step is analyze the frequency of discharge observation from Klambu weir which have time series data from 1951-2013. Frequency analysis is performed using several distribution frequency models such as Gumbel distribution, Normal, Normal Log, Pearson Type III and Log Pearson. The result of the model based on standard deviation overlaps, so the maximum flood discharge from the lower return periods may be worth more than the average discharge for larger return periods. The next step is to perform a hydraulic analysis to evaluate the reliability of river capacity based on the flood discharge resulted from several methods. The selection of the design flood discharge of flood control system is the result of the method closest to bankfull capacity of the river.

Keywords: design flood, hydrological model, reliability, uncertainty, Wulan river

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Authors: Steven Latré, Frederik Desplentere, Ilya Straumit, Stepan V. Lomov

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A method is proposed in order to create a three-dimensional finite element model representing fibre reinforced insulation materials for the simulation software Siemens NX. VoxTex software, a tool for quantification of µCT images of fibrous materials, is used for the transformation of microtomography images of random fibre reinforced composites into finite element models. An automatic tool was developed to execute the import of the models to the thermal solver module of Siemens NX. The paper describes the numerical tools used for the image quantification and the transformation and illustrates them on several thermal simulations of fibre reinforced insulation blankets filled with low thermal conductive fillers. The calculation of thermal conductivity is validated by comparison with the experimental data.

Keywords: analysis, modelling, thermal, voxel

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Authors: A. Dehghani, S. Shirin

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We propose in this article a new configuration of quantum states, |α, β> := |α>×|β>. Which are composed of vector products of two different copies of spin coherent states, |α> and |β>. Some mathematical as well as physical properties of such states are discussed. For instance, it has been shown that the cross products of two coherent vectors remain coherent again. They admit a resolution of the identity through positive definite measures on the complex plane. They represent packets similar to the true coherent states, in other words we would not expect to take spin squeezing in any of the field quadratures Lˆx, Lˆy and Lˆz. Depending on the particular choice of parameters in the above scenarios, they can be converted into the so-called Dicke states which minimize the uncertainty relations of each pair of the angular momentum components.

Keywords: vector (Cross-)products, minimum uncertainty, angular momentum, measurement, Dicke states

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Authors: Li-Wei Wu, Chung-Yu Wang

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Recently, interest has been generated in the search for a new reference framework for value creation that is centered on the co-creation process. Co-creation implies cooperative value creation between service firms and customers and requires the building of experiences as well as the resolution of problems through the combined effort of the parties in the relationship. For customers, values are always co-created through their participation in services. Customers can ultimately determine the value of the service in use. This new approach emphasizes that a customer’s participation in the service process is considered indispensable to value co-creation. An important feature of service in the context of exchange is co-production, which implies that a certain amount of participation is needed from customers to co-produce a service and hence co-create value. Co-production no doubt helps customers better understand and take charge of their own roles in the service process. Thus, this proposal is to encourage co-production, thus facilitating value co-creation of that is reflected in both customers and service firms. Four determinants of co-production are identified in this study, namely, commitment, trust, asset specificity, and decision-making uncertainty. Commitment is an essential dimension that directly results in successful cooperative behaviors. Trust helps establish a relational environment that is fundamental to cross-border cooperation. Asset specificity motivates co-production because this determinant may enhance return on asset investment. Decision-making uncertainty prompts customers to collaborate with service firms in making decisions. In other words, customers adjust their roles and are increasingly engaged in co-production when commitment, trust, asset specificity, and decision-making uncertainty are enhanced. Although studies have examined the preceding effects, to our best knowledge, none has empirically examined the simultaneous effects of all the curvilinear relationships in a single study. When these determinants are excessive, however, customers will not engage in co-production process. In brief, we suggest that the relationships of commitment, trust, asset specificity, and decision-making uncertainty with co-production are curvilinear or are inverse U-shaped. These new forms of curvilinear relationships have not been identified in existing literature on co-production; therefore, they complement extant linear approaches. Most importantly, we aim to consider both the bright and the dark sides of the determinants of co-production.

Keywords: co-production, commitment, trust, asset specificity, decision-making uncertainty

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Authors: Shawn Thompson

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Socrates and Zen Buddhism are separated by time, distance, and cultures in a way that it is unlikely that they influenced each other. And yet the two have an amazing similarity in the principle that paradoxical and unanswerable questions can be a form of wisdom that produces a healthy psyche. Both have a sense that the limit of human awareness is a wisdom of this uncertainty. Both are at odds with the dogma of answers and of a western rationality that prioritizes the answer. Both have enigmatic answers that perpetuate the question. Both use the form of a dialogue of interaction with mutual illumination rather than the form of a lecture to passive recipients. If these premises are true, Socrates and Zen Buddhism has elements in common that reflect basic human needs for a good life. It can be argued that there is a joint archetypal experience of the wisdom of uncertainty and unanswerable questions in Socrates and Zen Buddhism.

Keywords: zen buddhism, socrates, unanswerable questions, aporia

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Authors: André Jesus, Yanjie Zhu, Irwanda Laory

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Structural health monitoring is one of the most promising technologies concerning aversion of structural risk and economic savings. Analysts often have to deal with a considerable variety of uncertainties that arise during a monitoring process. Namely the widespread application of numerical models (model-based) is accompanied by a widespread concern about quantifying the uncertainties prevailing in their use. Some of these uncertainties are related with the deterministic nature of the model (code uncertainty) others with the variability of its inputs (parameter uncertainty) and the discrepancy between a model/experiment (systematic uncertainty). The actual process always exhibits a random behaviour (observation error) even when conditions are set identically (residual variation). Bayesian inference assumes that parameters of a model are random variables with an associated PDF, which can be inferred from experimental data. However in many Bayesian methods the determination of systematic uncertainty can be problematic. In this work systematic uncertainty is associated with a discrepancy function. The numerical model and discrepancy function are approximated by Gaussian processes (surrogate model). Finally, to avoid the computational burden of a fully Bayesian approach the parameters that characterise the Gaussian processes were estimated in a four stage process (modular Bayesian approach). The proposed methodology has been successfully applied on fields such as geoscience, biomedics, particle physics but never on the SHM context. This approach considerably reduces the computational burden; although the extent of the considered uncertainties is lower (second order effects are neglected). To successfully identify the considered uncertainties this formulation was extended to consider multiple responses. The efficiency of the algorithm has been tested on a small scale aluminium bridge structure, subjected to a thermal expansion due to infrared heaters. Comparison of its performance with responses measured at different points of the structure and associated degrees of identifiability is also carried out. A numerical FEM model of the structure was developed and the stiffness from its supports is considered as a parameter to calibrate. Results show that the modular Bayesian approach performed best when responses of the same type had the lowest spatial correlation. Based on previous literature, using different types of responses (strain, acceleration, and displacement) should also improve the identifiability problem. Uncertainties due to parametric variability, observation error, residual variability, code variability and systematic uncertainty were all recovered. For this example the algorithm performance was stable and considerably quicker than Bayesian methods that account for the full extent of uncertainties. Future research with real-life examples is required to fully access the advantages and limitations of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: bayesian, calibration, numerical model, system identification, systematic uncertainty, Gaussian process

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Authors: Joel Ballesteros, Harriet Jane Caleja, Florian Del Mundo, Cherrie Pascual

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Diffraction-based sensing was utilized in the quantification of human ferritin in blood serum to provide an alternative to label-based immunoassays currently used in clinical diagnostics and researches. The diffraction intensity was measured by the diffractive optics technology or dotLab™ system. Two methods were evaluated in this study: direct immunoassay and direct sandwich immunoassay. In the direct immunoassay, human ferritin was captured by human ferritin antibodies immobilized on an avidin-coated sensor while the direct sandwich immunoassay had an additional step for the binding of a detector human ferritin antibody on the analyte complex. Both methods were repeatable with coefficient of variation values below 15%. The direct sandwich immunoassay had a linear response from 10 to 500 ng/mL which is wider than the 100-500 ng/mL of the direct immunoassay. The direct sandwich immunoassay also has a higher calibration sensitivity with value 0.002 Diffractive Intensity (ng mL-1)-1) compared to the 0.004 Diffractive Intensity (ng mL-1)-1 of the direct immunoassay. The limit of detection and limit of quantification values of the direct immunoassay were found to be 29 ng/mL and 98 ng/mL, respectively, while the direct sandwich immunoassay has a limit of detection (LOD) of 2.5 ng/mL and a limit of quantification (LOQ) of 8.2 ng/mL. In terms of accuracy, the direct immunoassay had a percent recovery of 88.8-93.0% in PBS while the direct sandwich immunoassay had 94.1 to 97.2%. Based on the results, the direct sandwich immunoassay is a better diffraction-based immunoassay in terms of accuracy, LOD, LOQ, linear range, and sensitivity. The direct sandwich immunoassay was utilized in the determination of human ferritin in blood serum and the results are validated by Chemiluminescent Magnetic Immunoassay (CMIA). The calculated Pearson correlation coefficient was 0.995 and the p-values of the paired-sample t-test were less than 0.5 which show that the results of the direct sandwich immunoassay was comparable to that of CMIA and could be utilized as an alternative analytical method.

Keywords: biosensor, diffraction, ferritin, immunoassay

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Authors: Yingxiao Ye, Christopher Doehring, Angelos Georghiou, Hugh Robinson, Phebe Vayanos

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Human development is a threat to biodiversity, and conservation organizations (COs) are purchasing land to protect areas for biodiversity preservation. However, COs have limited budgets and thus face hard prioritization decisions that are confounded by uncertainty in future human land use. This research proposes a data-driven sequential planning model to help COs choose land parcels that minimize the uncertain human impact on biodiversity. The proposed model is robust to uncertain development, and the sequential decision-making process is adaptive, allowing land purchase decisions to adapt to human land use as it unfolds. The cellular automata model is leveraged to simulate land use development based on climate data, land characteristics, and development threat index from NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center. This simulation is used to model uncertainty in the problem. This research leverages state-of-the-art techniques in the robust optimization literature to propose a computationally tractable reformulation of the model, which can be solved routinely by off-the-shelf solvers like Gurobi or CPLEX. Numerical results based on real data from the Jaguar in Central and South America show that the proposed method reduces conservation loss by 19.46% on average compared to standard approaches such as MARXAN used in practice for biodiversity conservation. Our method may better help guide the decision process in land acquisition and thereby allow conservation organizations to maximize the impact of limited resources.

Keywords: data-driven robust optimization, biodiversity conservation, uncertainty simulation, adaptive sequential planning

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Authors: Moridi Fatemeh, Dasineh Mehdi, Jafari Narges

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The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between dividends and investment in a condition of cash flow uncertainty. Previous studies have also found some evidence that there is N-shaped relationship between dividends and investment given different levels of cash uncertainly. Thus, this study examines this relationship over the period 2009-2014 in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). Based on our sample and new variables, we found reverse N-shaped relationship in different levels of cash flow uncertainly. This shape was descending in cash flow certainly and uncertainly but it is ascending in medial position.

Keywords: dividends, investment, nonlinear relationship, uncertainty of cash flow

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Authors: Lourenco Camnahas, Eileen Willis, Greg Fisher, Jessie Gunson, Pascale Dettwiller, Charlene Thornton

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Stock-out of pharmaceuticals is a common issue at all level of health services in Timor-Leste, a small post-conflict country. This lead to the research questions: what are the current methods used to quantify pharmaceutical supplies; what factors contribute to the on-going pharmaceutical stock-out? The study examined factors that influence the pharmaceutical supply chain system. Methodology: Privett and Goncalvez dependency model has been adopted for the design of the qualitative interviews. The model examines pharmaceutical supply chain management at three management levels: management of individual pharmaceutical items, health facilities, and health systems. The interviews were conducted in order to collect information on inventory management, logistics management information system (LMIS) and the provision of pharmaceuticals. Andersen' behavioural model for healthcare utilization also informed the interview schedule, specifically factors linked to environment (healthcare system and external environment) and the population (enabling factors). Forty health professionals (bureaucrats, clinicians) and six senior officers from a United Nations Agency, a global multilateral agency and a local non-governmental organization were interviewed on their perceptions of factors (healthcare system/supply chain and wider environment) impacting on stock out. Additionally, policy documents for the entire healthcare system, along with population data were collected. Findings: An analysis using Pozzebon’s critical interpretation identified a range of difficulties within the system from poor coordination to failure to adhere to policy guidelines along with major difficulties with inventory management, quantification, forecasting, and budgetary constraints. Weak logistics management information system, lack of capacity in inventory management, monitoring and supervision are additional organizational factors that also contributed to the issue. There were various methods of quantification of pharmaceuticals applied in the government sector, and non-governmental organizations. Lack of reliable data is one of the major problems in the pharmaceutical provision. Global Fund has the best quantification methods fed by consumption data and malaria cases. There are other issues that worsen stock-out: political intervention, work ethic and basic infrastructure such as unreliable internet connectivity. Major issues impacting on pharmaceutical quantification have been identified. However, current data collection identified limitations within the Andersen model; specifically, a failure to take account of predictors in the healthcare system and the environment (culture/politics/social. The next step is to (a) compare models used by three non-governmental agencies with the government model; (b) to run the Andersen explanatory model for pharmaceutical expenditure for 2 to 5 drug items used by these three development partners in order to see how it correlates with the present model in terms of quantification and forecasting the needs; (c) to repeat objectives (a) and (b) using the government model; (d) to draw a conclusion about the strength.

Keywords: inventory management, pharmaceutical forecasting and quantification, pharmaceutical stock-out, pharmaceutical supply chain management

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Authors: Miroslava Cuperlovic-Culf, Lipu Wang, Ketty Boyle, Nadine Makley, Ian Burton, Anissa Belkaid, Mohamed Touaibia, Marc E. Surrette

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Metabolic changes are one of the major factors in the development of a variety of diseases in various species. Metabolism of agricultural plants is altered the following infection with pathogens sometimes contributing to resistance. At the same time, pathogens use metabolites for infection and progression. In humans, metabolism is a hallmark of cancer development for example. Quantified metabolomics data combined with other omics or clinical data and analyzed using various unsupervised and supervised methods can lead to better diagnosis and prognosis. It can also provide information about resistance as well as contribute knowledge of compounds significant for disease progression or prevention. In this work, different methods for metabolomics quantification and analysis from Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) measurements that are used for investigation of disease development in wheat and human cells will be presented. One-dimensional 1H NMR spectra are used extensively for metabolic profiling due to their high reliability, wide range of applicability, speed, trivial sample preparation and low cost. This presentation will describe a new method for metabolite quantification from NMR data that combines alignment of spectra of standards to sample spectra followed by multivariate linear regression optimization of spectra of assigned metabolites to samples’ spectra. Several different alignment methods were tested and multivariate linear regression result has been compared with other quantification methods. Quantified metabolomics data can be analyzed in the variety of ways and we will present different clustering methods used for phenotype determination, network analysis providing knowledge about the relationships between metabolites through metabolic network as well as biomarker selection providing novel markers. These analysis methods have been utilized for the investigation of fusarium head blight resistance in wheat cultivars as well as analysis of the effect of estrogen receptor and carbonic anhydrase activation and inhibition on breast cancer cell metabolism. Metabolic changes in spikelet’s of wheat cultivars FL62R1, Stettler, MuchMore and Sumai3 following fusarium graminearum infection were explored. Extensive 1D 1H and 2D NMR measurements provided information for detailed metabolite assignment and quantification leading to possible metabolic markers discriminating resistance level in wheat subtypes. Quantification data is compared to results obtained using other published methods. Fusarium infection induced metabolic changes in different wheat varieties are discussed in the context of metabolic network and resistance. Quantitative metabolomics has been used for the investigation of the effect of targeted enzyme inhibition in cancer. In this work, the effect of 17 β -estradiol and ferulic acid on metabolism of ER+ breast cancer cells has been compared to their effect on ER- control cells. The effect of the inhibitors of carbonic anhydrase on the observed metabolic changes resulting from ER activation has also been determined. Metabolic profiles were studied using 1D and 2D metabolomic NMR experiments, combined with the identification and quantification of metabolites, and the annotation of the results is provided in the context of biochemical pathways.

Keywords: metabolic biomarkers, metabolic network, metabolomics, multivariate linear regression, NMR quantification, quantified metabolomics, spectral alignment

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Authors: Vinko Vidučić, Tanja Brešan Ančić, Marijana Tomelić Ćurlin

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Prior to quantifying the variables of the information model for using school terminology in Croatia's region of Dalmatia from 1884 to 2014, the most relevant model variables had to be determined: historical circumstances, standard of living, education system, linguistic situation, and media. The research findings show that there was no significant transfer of the 1884 school terms into 1949 usage; likewise, the 1949 school terms were not widely used in 2014. On the other hand, the research revealed that the meaning of school terms changed over the decades. The quantification of the variables will serve as the groundwork for creating an information model for using school terminology in Dalmatia from 1884 to 2014 and for defining direct growth rates in further research.

Keywords: education system, historical circumstances, linguistic situation, media, school terminology, standard of living

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Authors: Julius M. Ndambuki, Gislar E. Kifanyi, Samuel N. Odai, Charles Gyamfi

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Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources is a challenging task due to the spatial and temporal variability nature of hydrology as well as hydrogeology of the water storage systems. Surface water-groundwater hydrogeology is highly uncertain; thus it is imperative that this uncertainty is explicitly accounted for, when managing water resources. Various methodologies have been developed and applied by researchers in an attempt to account for the uncertainty. For example, simulation-optimization models are often used for conjunctive water resources management. However, direct application of such an approach in which all realizations are considered at each iteration of the optimization process leads to a very expensive optimization in terms of computational time, particularly when the number of realizations is large. The aim of this paper, therefore, is to introduce and apply an efficient approach referred to as Retrospective Optimization Approximation (ROA) that can be used for optimizing conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater over a multiple hydrogeological model simulations. This work is based on stochastic simulation-optimization framework using a recently emerged technique of sample average approximation (SAA) which is a sampling based method implemented within the Retrospective Optimization Approximation (ROA) approach. The ROA approach solves and evaluates a sequence of generated optimization sub-problems in an increasing number of realizations (sample size). Response matrix technique was used for linking simulation model with optimization procedure. The k-means clustering sampling technique was used to map the realizations. The methodology is demonstrated through the application to a hypothetical example. In the example, the optimization sub-problems generated were solved and analysed using “Active-Set” core optimizer implemented under MATLAB 2014a environment. Through k-means clustering sampling technique, the ROA – Active Set procedure was able to arrive at a (nearly) converged maximum expected total optimal conjunctive water use withdrawal rate within a relatively few number of iterations (6 to 7 iterations). Results indicate that the ROA approach is a promising technique for optimizing conjunctive water use of surface water and groundwater withdrawal rates under hydrogeological uncertainty.

Keywords: conjunctive water management, retrospective optimization approximation approach, sample average approximation, uncertainty

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Authors: S. Fröhlich, M. Herold, M. Allmer

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Early stage quantitative analysis of host cell protein (HCP) variations is challenging yet necessary for comprehensive bioprocess development. High resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS) provides a high-end technology for accurate identification alongside with quantitative information. Hereby we describe a flexible HRMS assay platform to quantify HCPs relevant in microbial expression systems such as E. Coli in both up and downstream development by means of MVDA tools. Cell pellets were lysed and proteins extracted, purified samples not further treated before applying the SMART tryptic digest kit. Peptides separation was optimized using an RP-UHPLC separation platform. HRMS-MSMS analysis was conducted on an Orbitrap Velos Elite applying CID. Quantification was performed label-free taking into account ionization properties and physicochemical peptide similarities. Results were analyzed using SIEVE 2.0 (Thermo Fisher Scientific) and SIMCA (Umetrics AG). The developed HRMS platform was applied to an E. Coli expression set with varying productivity and the corresponding downstream process. Selected HCPs were successfully quantified within the fmol range. Analysing HCP networks based on pattern analysis facilitated low level quantification and enhanced validity. This approach is of high relevance for high-throughput screening experiments during upstream development, e.g. for titer determination, dynamic HCP network analysis or product characterization. Considering the downstream purification process, physicochemical clustering of identified HCPs is of relevance to adjust buffer conditions accordingly. However, the technology provides an innovative approach for label-free MS based quantification relying on statistical pattern analysis and comparison. Absolute quantification based on physicochemical properties and peptide similarity score provides a technological approach without the need of sophisticated sample preparation strategies and is therefore proven to be straightforward, sensitive and highly reproducible in terms of product characterization.

Keywords: process analytical technology, mass spectrometry, process characterization, MVDA, pattern recognition

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Authors: M. R. Ghasemi, R. Ghiasi, H. Varaee

Abstract:

Surrogate model has received increasing attention for use in detecting damage of structures based on vibration modal parameters. However, uncertainties existing in the measured vibration data may lead to false or unreliable output result from such model. In this study, an efficient approach based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to take into account the effect of uncertainties in developing a surrogate model. The probability of damage existence (PDE) is calculated based on the probability density function of the existence of undamaged and damaged states. The kriging technique allows one to genuinely quantify the surrogate error, therefore it is chosen as metamodeling technique. Enhanced version of ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM) algorithm is used as main algorithm for model updating. The developed approach is applied to detect simulated damage in numerical models of 72-bar space truss and 120-bar dome truss. The simulation results show the proposed method can perform well in probability-based damage detection of structures with less computational effort compared to direct finite element model.

Keywords: probability-based damage detection (PBDD), Kriging, surrogate modeling, uncertainty quantification, artificial intelligence, enhanced ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM)

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Authors: I. Khutsishvili, G. Sirbiladze, B. Ghvaberidze

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This work proposes a fuzzy methodology to support the investment decisions. While choosing among competitive investment projects, the methodology makes ranking of projects using the new aggregation OWA operator – AsPOWA, presented in the environment of possibility uncertainty. For numerical evaluation of the weighting vector associated with the AsPOWA operator the mathematical programming problem is constructed. On the basis of the AsPOWA operator the projects’ group ranking maximum criteria is constructed. The methodology also allows making the most profitable investments into several of the project using the method developed by the authors for discrete possibilistic bicriteria problems. The article provides an example of the investment decision-making that explains the work of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: expert evaluations, investment decision making, OWA operator, possibility uncertainty

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Authors: Xiaohua Zou, Yongxin Su

Abstract:

The reasonable operation of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) is of great significance in improving the security, stability, and economy of power system operation. However, the uncertainty of the operating environment, thermal comfort varies by users and rapid decision-making pose challenges for HVAC demand response optimization. In this regard, this paper proposes a reinforcement learning-based method for HVAC demand response optimization considering few-shot personalized thermal comfort (PTC). First, an HVAC DR optimization framework based on few-shot PTC model and DRL is designed, in which the output of few-shot PTC model is regarded as the input of DRL. Then, a few-shot PTC model that distinguishes between awake and asleep states is established, which has excellent engineering usability. Next, based on soft actor criticism, an HVAC DR optimization algorithm considering the user’s PTC is designed to deal with uncertainty and make decisions rapidly. Experiment results show that the proposed method can efficiently obtain use’s PTC temperature, reduce energy cost while ensuring user’s PTC, and achieve rapid decision-making under uncertainty.

Keywords: HVAC, few-shot personalized thermal comfort, deep reinforcement learning, demand response

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Authors: Vinko Viducic, Jelena Žanic Mikulicic, Maja Racic, Kristina Sladojevic

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The research presented in this paper has been focused on analyzing the impact of traffic on the sustainable development of tourism in Croatia's Dubrovacko-Neretvanska County by the year 2020, based on the figures and trends reported in 2014 and using the relevant variables that characterise the synergy of traffic and tourism in, speaking from the geographic viewpoint, the most problematic county in the Republic of Croatia. The basic hypothesis has been confirmed through scientifically obtained research results, through the quantification of the model's variables and the direct growth rates of the designed model. On the basis of scientific insights into the sustainable development of traffic and tourism in Dubrovacko-Neretvanska County, it is possible to propose a new information model for traffic at the service of the sustainable development of tourism in the County for the period 2014-2020.

Keywords: environment protection, hotel industry, private sector, quantification

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Authors: Malo Pocheau-Lesteven, Olivier Le Maître

Abstract:

Engineering and optimisation of complex systems is often achieved through multi-disciplinary analysis of the system, where each subsystem is modeled and interacts with other subsystems to model the complete system. The coherence of the output of the different sub-systems is achieved through the use of compatibility constraints, which enforce the coupling between the different subsystems. Due to the complexity of some sub-systems and the computational cost of evaluating their respective models, it is often necessary to build surrogate models of these subsystems to allow repeated evaluation these subsystems at a relatively low computational cost. In this paper, gaussian processes are used, as their probabilistic nature is leveraged to evaluate the likelihood of satisfying the compatibility constraints. This paper presents infilling strategies to build accurate surrogate models of the subsystems in areas where they are likely to meet the compatibility constraint. It is shown that these infilling strategies can reduce the computational cost of building surrogate models for a given level of accuracy. An application of these methods to velocity prediction programs used in offshore racing naval architecture further demonstrates these method's applicability in a real engineering context. Also, some examples of the application of uncertainty quantification to field of naval architecture are presented.

Keywords: infilling strategy, gaussian process, multi disciplinary analysis, velocity prediction program

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Authors: Aram Yakoby, Yossef H. Hatzor, Shmulik Pinkert

Abstract:

This work presents an applied engineering method for evaluating the stability of underground openings under conditions of uncertainty. The developed method is demonstrated by a comprehensive parametric study on a case of large-diameter vertical borehole stability analysis, with uncertainties regarding the in-situ stress distribution. To this aim, a safety factor analysis is performed for the stability of both supported and unsupported boreholes. In the analysis, we used analytic geomechanical calculations and advanced numerical modeling to evaluate the estimated stress field. In addition, the work presents the development of a boundary condition for the numerical model that fits the nature of the problem and yields excellent accuracy. The borehole stability analysis is studied in terms of (1) the stress ratio in the vertical and horizontal directions, (2) the mechanical properties and geometry of the support system, and (3) the parametric sensitivity. The method's results are studied in light of a real case study of an underground waste disposal site. The conclusions of this study focus on the developed method for capturing the parametric uncertainty, the definition of critical geological depths, the criteria for implementing structural support, and the effectiveness of further in-situ investigations.

Keywords: borehole stability, in-situ stress, parametric study, factor of safety

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Authors: Eva Kotlánová

Abstract:

After recession that began in 2007 in the United States and subsequently spilled over the Europe we could expect recovery of economic growth. According to the last estimation of economic progress of European countries, this recovery is not strong enough. Among others, it will depend on economic policy, where and in which way, the economic indicators will proceed. Economic theories postulate that the economic subjects prefer stably, continual economic policy without repeated and strong fluctuations. This policy is perceived as support of economic growth. Mostly in crises period, when the government must cope with consequences of recession, the economic policy becomes unpredictable for many subjects and economic policy uncertainty grows, which have negative influence on economic growth. The aim of this paper is to use panel regression to prove or disprove this hypothesis on the example of five largest European economies in the period 2008–2012.

Keywords: economic crises in Europe, economic policy, uncertainty, panel analysis regression

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Authors: B. Güney, Ç. Teke

Abstract:

In recent years, rapid and correct decision making is crucial for both people and enterprises. However, uncertainty makes decision-making difficult. Fuzzy logic is used for coping with this situation. Thus, fuzzy linear programming models are developed in order to handle uncertainty in objective function and the constraints. In this study, a problem of a factory in food industry is investigated, required data is obtained and the problem is figured out as a fuzzy linear programming model. The model is solved using Zimmerman approach which is one of the approaches for fuzzy linear programming. As a result, the solution gives the amount of production for each product type in order to gain maximum profit.

Keywords: food industry, fuzzy linear programming, fuzzy logic, linear programming

Procedia PDF Downloads 600