Search results for: traceable decisions

Authors: Shenaz Ahmed, Hussain Jafri, Muhammed Faran, Wajeeha Naseer Ahmed, Yasmin Rashid, Yasmin Ehsan, Shabnam Bashir, Mushtaq Ahmed

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Low uptake of cascade screening for βeta-Thalassaemia Major (β-TM) in the ‘Punjab Thalassaemia Prevention Project’ (PTPP) in Pakistan led to the development of a ‘decision support intervention for relatives’ (DeSIRe). This paper presents the experiences of relatives of children with β-TM of the DeSIRe following its use by PTPP field officers in routine clinical practice. Fifty-four semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted (April to June 2021) with relatives in seven cities in the Punjab province (Lahore, Sheikhupura, Nankana Sahab, Kasur, Gujranwala, Multan, and Faisalabad). Thematic analysis shows that participants were satisfied with the content of the DeSIRe and its delivery by the field officers in a family meeting. They understood the main purpose of the DeSIRe was to improve their knowledge of β-TM and its inheritance, to enable them to make decisions about thalassemia carrier testing, particularly before marriage. While participants raised concerns about the stigma of testing positive, they believed the DeSIRe was an appropriate intervention, which supported relatives to make informed decisions. Our findings show the DeSIRe is appropriate for use by healthcare professionals in routine practice in a low-middle income country and has the potential to facilitate shared decision-making about cascade screening for thalassemia. Further research is needed to prove the efficacy of the DeSIRe.

Keywords: thalassemia, Pakistan, cascade screening, decision support

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Authors: Deniz Peksen

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This thesis aims to predict trend movement of closing price of stock and to maximize portfolio by utilizing the predictions. In this context, the study aims to define a stock portfolio strategy from models created by using Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest. Recently, predicting the trend of stock price has gained a significance role in making buy and sell decisions and generating returns with investment strategies formed by machine learning basis decisions. There are plenty of studies in the literature on the prediction of stock prices in capital markets using machine learning methods but most of them focus on closing prices instead of the direction of price trend. Our study differs from literature in terms of target definition. Ours is a classification problem which is focusing on the market trend in next 20 trading days. To predict trend direction, fourteen years of data were used for training. Following three years were used for validation. Finally, last three years were used for testing. Training data are between 2002-06-18 and 2016-12-30 Validation data are between 2017-01-02 and 2019-12-31 Testing data are between 2020-01-02 and 2022-03-17 We determine Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate as benchmarks which we should outperform. We compared our machine learning basis portfolio return on test data with return of Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate. We assessed our model performance with the help of roc-auc score and lift charts. We use logistic regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest with grid search approach to fine-tune hyper-parameters. As a result of the empirical study, the existence of uptrend and downtrend of five stocks could not be predicted by the models. When we use these predictions to define buy and sell decisions in order to generate model-based-portfolio, model-based-portfolio fails in test dataset. It was found that Model-based buy and sell decisions generated a stock portfolio strategy whose returns can not outperform non-model portfolio strategies on test dataset. We found that any effort for predicting the trend which is formulated on stock price is a challenge. We found same results as Random Walk Theory claims which says that stock price or price changes are unpredictable. Our model iterations failed on test dataset. Although, we built up several good models on validation dataset, we failed on test dataset. We implemented Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and Logistic Regression. We discovered that complex models did not provide advantage or additional performance while comparing them with Logistic Regression. More complexity did not lead us to reach better performance. Using a complex model is not an answer to figure out the stock-related prediction problem. Our approach was to predict the trend instead of the price. This approach converted our problem into classification. However, this label approach does not lead us to solve the stock prediction problem and deny or refute the accuracy of the Random Walk Theory for the stock price.

Keywords: stock prediction, portfolio optimization, data science, machine learning

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Authors: Sumiti Saharan, Pallav Patankar, Lily W. Lee

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Understanding the health-seeking behaviors and attitudes of women towards maternal health in the context of gender roles and family dynamics is tremendously crucial for designing effective and impactful interventions aimed at improving maternal and child health outcomes. Further, as the digital world becomes more accessible and affordable, it is imperative to scope the potential of digital technology in enabling access to maternal health information in different socio-economic groups (SEGs). In the summer of 2017, we conducted a study with 500 women across different SEGs in urban India who were pregnant or had had a delivery in the last year. The study was undertaken to assess their maternal health information seeking behavior with a particular focus on probing their use of digital technology for health-related information. The study also measured women's decision-making autonomy in the context of maternal health, awareness of their rights to quality and respectful maternal healthcare, and agency to voice their rights. We probed the impact of key variables including education, age, and socioeconomic status on all outcome variables. In terms of health-seeking behaviors, we found that women heavily relied on medical professionals and/or their mothers and mothers-in-law for all maternal health advice. Digital adoption was found to be high across all SEGs, with around 70% of women from all populations using the internet several times a week. On the other hand, use of the internet for both accessing maternal health information and choosing maternity hospitals were both significantly dependent on SEG. The key reasons reported for not using the internet for health purposes were lack of awareness and lack of trust on content accuracy. Decisions around health practices and type of delivery were found to be jointly made by women and other family members. Almost all women reported their husbands to play a key role in all maternal health decisions and for decisions with a clear financial implication like choice of hospital for delivery, husbands were reported to be the sole decision maker by a majority of women. The agency of women was also found to be low in interactions with maternal healthcare providers with a third of respondents not comfortable with voicing their opinions and preferences to their doctors. Interestingly, we find that this relatively low agency was prominent in both lower middle class and middle-class SEGs. Recognition of the sociocultural determinants of behavior is the first step in developing actionable strategies for improving maternal health outcomes. Our study quantifies the agency and autonomy of women in urban India and the variables that impact them. Our findings emphasize the value of gender normative approaches that factor in the key role husbands play in guiding maternal health decisions. They also highlight the power of digital approaches for catalyzing access to maternal health information. These insights into the attitude and behaviors of mothers in context of their sociocultural environments—and their relationship with digital technology—can help pave the way towards designing effective, scalable maternal and child health programs in developing nations like India.

Keywords: access to healthcare information, behavior, digital health, maternal health

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Authors: Marsha R. Lawrence

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Introduction: In February and March of 2020, many Black Americans in Albany, Georgia, were impacted by COVID-19 compared to the rest of the country. Due to misinformation and distrust in the community, citizens were not able to make good health decisions regarding COVID-19. The city of Albany applied for a grant with the Department of Health and Human Services, specifically the Office of Minority Health and it was approved. The city of Albany partnered with Albany State University to administer the grant and implementation ensued. Method: An eleven-page electronic and paper cross-sectional survey was given to participants. Albany State University recruited community partners like health care organizations and faith-based organizations to reach the citizens of Albany, Georgia. These partners reached participants through creative community activities to educate participants about COVID-19 and provide incentives to receive a vaccine. Data collection is still in progress because activities are ongoing. Anticipated Results: By December 2023, we anticipate results of the number of participants who accepted vaccines based on participants who stated providers checked their understanding, participants who were satisfied with communication regarding COVID-19 health information about the vaccine, and participants who were involved in decisions regarding the COVID-19 vaccine. Conclusion: Health communication is a subsection of health literacy. At this point, approximately 4000 individuals have received information and education about COVID-19 in the Albany area. We expect building trusting relationships played an important part in the increase in knowledge and vaccination in Albany, Georgia.

Keywords: health literacy, health communication, vaccination, COVID-19

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Authors: Ramune Kasperaviciene, Jurgita Motiejuniene, Dalia Venckiene

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Familiarising students with strategies for transferring cultural meanings (intertextual units, culture-specific idioms, culture-specific items, etc.) should be part of a comprehensive translator training programme. The present paper focuses on strategies for transferring such meanings into other languages and explores possibilities for introducing these methods and practice to translation students. The authors (university translation teachers) analyse the means of transferring cultural meanings from English into Lithuanian in a specific travel book, attribute these means to theoretically grounded strategies, and make calculations related to the frequency of adoption of specific strategies; translation students are familiarised with concepts and methods related to transferring cultural meanings and asked to put their theoretical knowledge into practice, i.e. interpret and translate certain culture-specific items from the same source text, and ground their decisions on theory; the comparison of the strategies employed by the professional translator of the source text (as identified by the authors of this study) and by the students is made. As a result, both students and teachers gain valuable experience, and new practices of conducting translation classes for a specific purpose evolve. Conclusions highlight the differences and similarities of non-professional and professional choices, summarise the possibilities for introducing methods of transferring cultural meanings to students, and round up with specific considerations of the impact of theoretical knowledge and the degree of experience on decisions made in the translation process.

Keywords: cultural meanings, culture-specific items, strategies for transferring cultural meanings, translator training

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Authors: Adel Pasztor

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International doctoral mobility is a largely under-researched component of academic mobility and migration. This is in stark contrast to the case of student mobility where much research has been undertaken on Erasmus students; or the growing research on academic staff mobility which can be viewed as a key part of highly skilled migration. The aim of this paper is to remedy the situation by specifically focusing on international doctoral students studying at elite higher education institutions in the United Kingdom. In doing so, in-depth qualitative interviews with doctoral students and recent graduates were carried out in order to identify the signifiers of an internationally mobile doctoral student and unpack the decision-making processes leading onto the choice of higher education institution abroad. Overall, a diverse range of degree subjects from within the humanities and the social sciences were covered with a relatively large spread of nationalities which include the following countries: Italy, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Bulgaria, Turkey, Lebanon, Israel, Australia, USA, China, and Chile. The interview questions were designed to probe the motivations, choices, educational trajectories and career plans of international doctoral students relative to their social class background, gender, nationality or funding. It was clear from the interviews that there were two main types of international doctoral students: those who ‘did not think anything else was ever a serious possibility’, contrasted with the other, more opportune type, to whom ‘it happened to be a PhD’. There were marked differences between the two types since initial access to university, mainly because educational decisions such as the doctorate do not happen in a vacuum, rather are built on the individual’s higher education aspirations and previous educational choices. The results were in line with existing literature suggesting that those with higher educated parents and from schools strongly supporting the choice process fared better as they were able to make well informed, well thought through as well as strategic decisions for their future involving the very best universities within the national boundaries. Being ‘at the right place’ often meant access to prestigious doctoral scholarships thus, the route of the PhD has been chosen even if it did not necessarily enhance career opportunities. At the same time, the initial higher education choices of those with limited capital were played out locally, although they did aim for the best universities within their geographically constrained landscape of choice. Here, the majority of students referred to some ‘turning points’ in their lives which lead them towards considering international doctoral opportunities but essentially their proactive, do-it-yourself attitude was behind the life-changing educational opportunities.

Keywords: choice, doctoral students, international mobility, PhD, UK

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Authors: Nayer Fardows, Zarash Nayer, Sarah Nayer Jaffar, Daud Nayer

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This paper analyses the issues related to communal properties of minorities in the cantonment area of Pakistan allotted in the mid-eighteenth centuries by the British Government to facilitate soldiers. These properties were old grants on which churches, institutes, hospitals, and residences were built. The ownership of these properties remained with British Government, but after the creation of Pakistan, changes by putting Government of Pakistan as the landlord of the property disturbed the inheritors as they remained as, holder of occupancy. The government of Pakistan issued a policy in 1997 to convert the status of old grant properties to regular lease. However, heavy taxes and high court’s decisions made it difficult to solve the issue. The study was conducted on six old grant properties of Edwardes College Peshawar cantonment situated in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. The paper is descriptive research with a qualitative approach collecting data through government rules, acts, ordinance and decisions of the high courts. The result leads to three aspects; 1) holder of occupancy status of old grant properties in cantonment is similar as allotment of other properties by the government, 2) imposition of heavy taxes on conversion of property from old grant to regular lease restricted inheritors to further construct or transfer, 3) imposition of higher courts ban on conversion of communal properties contradict government policy of conversion. The paper recommends the Government of Pakistan a solution to maintain the status quo for communal properties that fall within the old grant.

Keywords: British Government, communal properties, cantonment, old grant, institutions

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Authors: Katharina Raab, Ralf Wagner

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With the decrease of poverty, the focus on the solid waste challenge shifts away from affluent, mostly Westernized consumers to the base of the pyramid. The relevance of considering the disposal behavior of impoverished people arises from improved welfare, leading to an increase in consumption opportunities and, consequently, of waste production. In combination with the world’s growing population the relevance of the topic increases, because solid waste management has global impacts on consumers’ welfare. The current annual municipal solid waste generation is estimated to 1.9 billion tonnes, 30% remains uncollected. As for the collected 70% is landfilling and dumping, 19% is recycled or recovered, 11% is led to energy recovery facilities. Therefore, aim is to contribute by adding first insights about poor people's disposal behaviors, including the framing of their rationalities, emotions and cognitions. The study provides novel empirical results obtained from qualitative semi-structured in-depth interviews near Guatemala City. In the study’s framework consumers have to choose from three options when deciding what to do with their obsolete possessions: Keeping the product: The main reason for this is the respondent´s emotional attachment to a product. Further, there is a willingness to use the same product under a different scope when it loses its functionality–they recycle their belongings in a customized and sustainable way. Permanently disposing of the product: The study reveals two dominant disposal methods: burning in front of their homes and throwing away in the physical environment. Respondents clearly recognized the disadvantages of burning toxic durables, like electronics. Giving a product away as a gift supports the integration of individuals in their peer networks of family and friends. Temporarily disposing of the product: Was not mentioned–to be specific, rent or lend a product to someone else was out of question. Contrasting the background to which extend poor people are aware of the consequences of their disposal decisions and how they feel about and rationalize their actions were quite unexpected. Respondents reported that they are worried about future consequences with impacts they cannot anticipate now–they are aware that their behaviors harm their health and the environment. Additionally, they expressed concern about the impact this disposal behavior would have on others’ well-being and are therefore sensitive to the waste that surrounds them. Concluding, the BoP-framed life and Westernized consumption, both fit in a circular economy pattern, but the nature of how to recycle and dispose separates these two societal groups. Both systems own a solid waste management system, but people living in slum-type districts and rural areas of poor countries are less interested in connecting to the system–they are primarily afraid of the costs. Further, it can be said that a consumer’s perceived effectiveness is distinct from environmental concerns, but contributes to forecasting certain pro-ecological behaviors. Considering the rationales underlying disposal decisions, thoughtfulness is a well-established determinant of disposition behavior. The precipitating events, emotions and decisions associated with the act of disposing of products are important because these decisions can trigger different results for the disposal process.

Keywords: base of the pyramid, disposal behavior, poor consumers, solid waste

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Authors: Francis Wargirai

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Since gaining independence in 1975, Papua New Guinea`s core challenge has been the consolidation of democracy against a backdrop of enormous social, political and territorial diversity. Consequently, the government has implemented several political reforms including decentralization. Constitutional planners believed that national unity, would be better achieved by sharing state power over centralization. They anticipated that this would institutionalize a democratic civic culture by providing opportunities to groups and individuals to make political decisions within their jurisdiction. This would then eventually lead to confidence and participation in the larger entity of the state. In retrospect, civil society and community based groups are largely underrated and have had minimal influence on decisions at the local level, consequently contributing to nepotism, patronism and cynicism. By applying an elitist approach to analyze how national political leaders exert their influence and power within the local government system and local communities, this paper argues that decentralization has fragmented local communities. With an absence of political party roots and deeply divided ethnic groups, national political leaders have used divide and rule tactics resulting in mistrust among citizens. Through their influence and power within local governments to dictate projects and services to certain areas, this has resulted in skepticism and divisions among civil society along different cultural cleavages. This has been a contributing factor to anomalies in democratic consolidation and democratic political culture in Papua New Guinea.

Keywords: civic culture, cultural cleavages, decentralization, democratic consolidation

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Authors: Ademola Ajibade

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Previous studies have explored several rationales for hedging strategies, but the evidence provided by these studies remains ambiguous. Using a hand-collected dataset of 2460 observations of non-financial firms in eight African countries covering 2013-2022, this paper investigates the determinants and extent of corporate hedge use. In particular, this paper focuses on the link between country-specific conditions and the corporate hedging behaviour of firms. To our knowledge, this represents the first African studies investigating the association between country-specific factors and corporate hedging policy. The evidence based on both univariate and multivariate reveal that country-level corruption and government quality are important indicators of the decisions and extent of hedge use among African firms. However, the connection between country-specific factors as a rationale for corporate hedge use is stronger for firms located in highly corrupt countries. This suggest that firms located in corrupt countries are more motivated to hedge due to the large exposure they face. In addition, we test the risk management theories and observe that CEOs educational qualification and experience shape corporate hedge behaviour. We implement a lagged variables in a panel data setting to address endogeneity concern and implement an interaction term between governance indices and firm-specific variables to test for robustness. Generally, our findings reveal that institutional factors shape risk management decisions and have a predictive power in explaining corporate hedging strategy.

Keywords: corporate hedging, governance quality, corruption, derivatives

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Authors: Priyanka Bharti

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Decades ago designs were based on common sense and tradition, but after an enhancement in visualization technology and research, we are now able to comprehend the cognitive ability involved in the decoding of the visual information. However, many fields in visuals need intense research to deliver an efficient explanation for the events. Visuals are an information representation mode through images, symbols and graphics. It plays an impactful role in decision making by facilitating quick recognition, comprehension, and analysis of a situation. They enhance problem-solving capabilities by enabling the processing of more data without overloading the decision maker. As research proves that, visuals offer an improved learning environment by a factor of 400 compared to textual information. Visual information engages learners at a cognitive level and triggers the imagination, which enables the user to process the information faster (visuals are processed 60,000 times faster in the brain than text). Appropriate information, visualization, and its presentation are known to aid and intensify the decision-making process for the users. However, most literature discusses the role of visual aids in comprehension and decision making during normal conditions alone. Unlike emergencies, in a normal situation (e.g. our day to day life) users are neither exposed to stringent time constraints nor face the anxiety of survival and have sufficient time to evaluate various alternatives before making any decision. An emergency is an unexpected probably fatal real-life situation which may inflict serious ramifications on both human life and material possessions unless corrective measures are taken instantly. The situation demands the exposed user to negotiate in a dynamic and unstable scenario in the absence or lack of any preparation, but still, take swift and appropriate decisions to save life/lives or possessions. But the resulting stress and anxiety restricts cue sampling, decreases vigilance, reduces the capacity of working memory, causes premature closure in evaluating alternative options, and results in task shedding. Limited time, uncertainty, high stakes and vague goals negatively affect cognitive abilities to take appropriate decisions. More so, theory of natural decision making by experts has been understood with far more depth than that of an ordinary user. Therefore, in this study, the author aims to understand the role of visual aids in supporting rapid comprehension to take appropriate decisions during an emergency situation.

Keywords: cognition, visual, decision making, graphics, recognition

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Authors: Kabiru Adamu

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The Nigerian electricity industry was deregulated and privatized in 2005 and 2014 in line with global trend and practice. International and multilateral lending institutions advised developing countries, Nigeria inclusive, to adopt deregulation and privatization as part of reforms in their electricity sectors. The ideological basis of these reforms are traceable to neoliberalism. Neoliberalism is an ideology that believes in the supremacy of free market and strong non-interventionist competition law as against government ownership of the electricity market. This ideology became a state practice and a blue print for the deregulation and privatization of the electricity markets in many parts of the world. The blue print was used as a template for the privatization of the Nigerian electricity industry. In this wise, this paper, using documentary analysis and review of academic literatures, examines neoliberalism as an ideology and model of economic governance for the electricity supply industry in Nigeria. The paper examines the origin of the ideology, it features and principles and how it was used as the blue print in designing policies for electricity reforms in both developed and developing countries. The paper found out that there is gap between the ideology in theory and in practice because although the theory is rational in thinking it is difficult to be implemented in practice. The paper argues that the ideology has a mismatched effect and this has made its application in the electricity industry in many developing countries problematic and unsuccessful. In the case of Nigeria, the article argues that the template is also not working. The article concludes that the electricity sectors in Nigeria have failed to develop into competitive market for the benefit of consumers in line with the assumptions and promises of the ideology. The paper therefore recommends the democratization of the electricity sectors in Nigeria through a new system of public ownership as the solution to the failure of the neoliberal policies; but this requires the design of a more democratic and participatory system of ownership with communities and state governments in charge of the administration, running and operation of the sector.

Keywords: electricity, energy governance, neo-liberalism, regulation

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Authors: Luis Guilherme Resende Santos, Ido Nevat, Leslie Norford

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The Urban Heat Island (UHI) is characterized by increased air temperatures in urban areas compared to undeveloped rural surrounding environments. With urbanization and densification, the intensity of UHI increases, bringing negative impacts on livability, health and economy. In order to reduce those effects, it is required to take into consideration design factors when planning future developments. Given design constraints such as population size and availability of area for development, non-trivial decisions regarding the buildings’ dimensions and their spatial distribution are required. We develop a framework for optimization of urban design in order to jointly minimize UHI intensity and buildings’ energy consumption. First, the design constraints are defined according to spatial and population limits in order to establish realistic boundaries that would be applicable in real life decisions. Second, the tools Urban Weather Generator (UWG) and EnergyPlus are used to generate outputs of UHI intensity and total buildings’ energy consumption, respectively. Those outputs are changed based on a set of variable inputs related to urban morphology aspects, such as building height, urban canyon width and population density. Lastly, an optimization problem is cast where the utility function quantifies the performance of each design candidate (e.g. minimizing a linear combination of UHI and energy consumption), and a set of constraints to be met is set. Solving this optimization problem is difficult, since there is no simple analytic form which represents the UWG and EnergyPlus models. We therefore cannot use any direct optimization techniques, but instead, develop an indirect “black box” optimization algorithm. To this end we develop a solution that is based on stochastic optimization method, known as the Cross Entropy method (CEM). The CEM translates the deterministic optimization problem into an associated stochastic optimization problem which is simple to solve analytically. We illustrate our model on a typical residential area in Singapore. Due to fast growth in population and built area and land availability generated by land reclamation, urban planning decisions are of the most importance for the country. Furthermore, the hot and humid climate in the country raises the concern for the impact of UHI. The problem presented is highly relevant to early urban design stages and the objective of such framework is to guide decision makers and assist them to include and evaluate urban microclimate and energy aspects in the process of urban planning.

Keywords: building energy consumption, stochastic optimization, urban design, urban heat island, urban weather generator

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Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou, Maria F. Sartzetaki, Anastasia Kalamakidou

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Transport infrastructure assets are key components of the national asset portfolio. The decision to invest in a new infrastructure in transports could take from a few years to some decades. This is mainly because of the need to reserve and spent many capitals, the long payback period, the number of the stakeholders involved in the decision process and –many times- the investment and business risks are high. Decision makers and stakeholders need to define the framework and the outputs of the decision process taking into account the project characteristics, the business uncertainties, and the different expectations. Therefore, the decision assessment framework is an essential challenge linked with the key decision factors meet the stakeholder expectations highlighting project trade-offs, financial risks, business uncertainties and market limitations. This paper examines the decision process for new transport infrastructure projects in cross-border regions, where a wide range of stakeholders with different expectation is involved. According to a consequences analysis systemic approach, the relationship of transport infrastructure development, economic system development and stakeholder expectation is analysed. Adopting the on system of system methodological approach, the decision making the framework, variables, inputs and outputs are defined, highlighting the key shareholder’s role and expectations. The application provides the methodology outputs presenting the proposed decision framework for a strategic railway project in north Greece deals with the upgrade of the existing railway corridor connecting Greece, Turkey, and Bulgaria.

Keywords: system of system decision making, managing decisions for transport projects, decision support framework, defining decision process

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Authors: Sandra Regina Cavalcante, Rodolfo A. G. Vilela

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Introduction: Work accidents and occupational diseases are a big problem for public health around the world and the main health problem of workers with high social and economic costs. Brazil has shown progress over the last years, with the development of the regulatory system to improve safety and quality of life in the workplace. However, the situation is far from acceptable, because the occurrences remain high and there is a great gap between legislation and reality, generated by the low level of voluntary compliance with the law. Brazilian laws provide procedural legal instruments for both, to compensate the damage caused to the worker's health and to prevent future injuries. In the Judiciary, the prevention idea is in the collective action, effected through Brazilian Class Actions. Inhibitory guardianships may impose both, improvements to the working environment, as well as determine the interruption of activity or a ban on the machine that put workers at risk. Both the Labor Prosecution and trade unions have to stand to promote this type of action, providing payment of compensation for collective moral damage. Objectives: To verify how class actions (known as ‘public civil actions’), regulated in Brazilian legal system to protect diffuse, collective and homogeneous rights, are being used to protect workers' health and safety. Methods: The author identified and evaluated decisions of Brazilian Superior Court of Labor involving collective actions and work accidents. The timeframe chosen was December 2015. The online jurisprudence database was consulted in page available for public consultation on the court website. The categorization of the data was made considering the result (court application was rejected or accepted), the request type, the amount of compensation and the author of the cause, besides knowing the reasoning used by the judges. Results: The High Court issued 21,948 decisions in December 2015, with 1448 judgments (6.6%) about work accidents and only 20 (0.09%) on collective action. After analyzing these 20 decisions, it was found that the judgments granted compensation for collective moral damage (85%) and/or obligation to make, that is, changes to improve prevention and safety (71%). The processes have been filed mainly by the Labor Prosecutor (83%), and also appeared lawsuits filed by unions (17%). The compensation for collective moral damage had average of 250,000 reais (about US$65,000), but it should be noted that there is a great range of values found, also are several situations repaired by this compensation. This is the last instance resource for this kind of lawsuit and all decisions were well founded and received partially the request made for working environment protection. Conclusions: When triggered, the labor court system provides the requested collective protection in class action. The values of convictions arbitrated in collective actions are significant and indicate that it creates social and economic repercussions, stimulating employers to improve the working environment conditions of their companies. It is necessary to intensify the use of collective actions, however, because they are more efficient for prevention than reparatory individual lawsuits, but it has been underutilized, mainly by Unions.

Keywords: Brazilian Class Action, collective action, work accident penalization, workplace accident prevention, workplace protection law

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Authors: F. Viprey, H. Nouira, S. Lavernhe, C. Tournier

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Manufacturing of freeform parts may be achieved on 5-axis machine tools currently considered as a common means of production. In particular, the geometrical quality of the freeform parts depends on the accuracy of the multi-axis structural loop, which is composed of several component assemblies maintaining the relative positioning between the tool and the workpiece. Therefore, to reach high quality of the geometries of the freeform parts the geometric errors of the 5 axis machine should be evaluated and compensated, which leads one to master the deviations between the tool and the workpiece (volumetric accuracy). In this study, a novel hole-bar design was developed and used for the characterization of the geometric errors of a RRTTT 5-axis machine tool. The hole-bar standard design is made of Invar material, selected since it is less sensitive to thermal drift. The proposed design allows once to extract 3 intrinsic parameters: one linear positioning and two straightnesses. These parameters can be obtained by measuring the cylindricity of 12 holes (bores) and 11 cylinders located on a perpendicular plane. By mathematical analysis, twelve 3D points coordinates can be identified and correspond to the intersection of each hole axis with the least square plane passing through two perpendicular neighbour cylinders axes. The hole-bar was calibrated using a precision CMM at LNE traceable the SI meter definition. The reversal technique was applied in order to separate the error forms of the hole bar from the motion errors of the mechanical guiding systems. An inter-comparison was additionally conducted between four NMIs (National Metrology Institutes) within the EMRP IND62: JRP-TIM project. Afterwards, the hole-bar was integrated in RRTTT 5-axis machine tool to identify its volumetric errors. Measurements were carried out in real time and combine raw data acquired by the Renishaw RMP600 touch probe and the linear and rotary encoders. The geometric errors of the 5 axis machine were also evaluated by an accurate laser tracer interferometer system. The results were compared to those obtained with the hole bar.

Keywords: volumetric errors, CMM, 3D hole-bar, inter-comparison

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Authors: Adedayo Jeremiah Adeyekun, Samuel Oluwagbemiga Ishola

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This paper aimed to identify the significance of sustainability in the built environment, the economic and environmental importance to building and construction projects. Sustainability in the built environment has been a key objective of research over the past several decades. Sustainability in the built environment requires reconciliation between economic, environmental and social impacts of design and planning decisions made during the life cycle of a project from inception to termination. Planning for sustainability in the built environment needs us to go beyond our individual disciplines to consider the variety of economic, social and environmental impacts of our decisions in the long term. A decision to build a green residential development in an isolated location may pass some of the test of sustainability through its reduction in stormwater runoff, energy efficiency, and ecological sustainability in the building, but it may fail to be sustainable from a transportation perspective. Sustainability is important to the planning, design, construction, and preservation of the built environment; because it helps these activities reflect multiple values and considerations. In fact, the arts and sciences of the built environment have traditionally integrated values and fostered creative expression, capabilities that can and should lead the sustainability movement as society seeks ways to live in dynamic balance with its own diverse needs and the natural world. This research aimed to capture the state-of-the-art in the development of innovative sustainable design and planning strategies for building and construction projects. Therefore, there is a need for a holistic selection and implication approach for identifying potential sustainable strategies applicable to a particular project and evaluating the overall life cycle impact of each alternative by accounting for different applicable impacts and making the final selection among various viable alternatives.

Keywords: sustainability, built environment, planning, design, construction

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Authors: Leila Mohammadi

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This paper presents the impact of persuasive communication implemented by fertility clinics websites, and how this information influences women at their decision-making for undertaking this procedure. The influential factors for women decisions to do social egg freezing (SEF) are analyzed from a framing theory perspective, with a specific focus on the impact of persuasive information on women’s decision making. This study follows a quantitative approach. A two-phase survey has been conducted to examine the interest rate to undertake SEF. In the first phase, a questionnaire was available during a month (May 2015) to women to answer whether or not they knew enough information of this process, with a total of 230 answers. The second phase took place in the two last weeks of July 2015. All the respondents were invited to a seminars called ‘All about egg freezing’ and afretwards they were requested to answer the second questionnaire. After the seminar, in which they were given an extensive amount of information about egg freezing, a total of 115 women replied the questionnaire. The collected data during this process were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Most of the respondents changed their opinion in the second questionaire which was after receiving information. Although in the first questionnaire their self-evaluation of having knowledge about this process and the implemented technologies was very high, they realized that they still need to access more information from different sources in order to be able to make a decision. The study reached the conclusion that persuasive and framed information by clinics would affect the decisions of these women. Despite the reasons women have to do egg freezing and their motivations behind it, providing people necessary information and unprejudiced data about this process (such as its positive and negative aspects, requirements, suppositions, possibilities and consequences) would help them to make a more precise and reasonable decision about what they are buying.

Keywords: decision making, fertility clinics, framing theory, persuasive information, social egg freezing

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Authors: Reemiah Alotaibi, Muthu Ramachandran, Ah-Lian Kor, Amin Hosseinian-Far

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In the past decade, developers of Web 2.0 technologies have shown increasing interest in the topic of e-government. There has been a rapid growth in social media technology because of its significant role in backing up some essential social needs. Its importance and power is derived from its capacity to support two-way communication. Governments are curious to get engaged in these websites, hoping to benefit from the new forms of communication and interaction offered by such technology. Greater participation by the public can be viewed as a chief indicator of effective government communication. Yet, the level of public participation in government 2.0 is not quite satisfactory. In general, it is still at the early stage in most developing countries, including Saudi Arabia. Although it is a fact that Saudi people are among the most active in using social media, the number of people who use social media to communicate with the public institutions is not high. Furthermore, most of the governmental organisations are not using social media tools to communicate with the public. They use these platforms to disseminate information. Our study focuses on the factors affecting citizens’ adoption of social media in Saudi Arabia. Our research question is: what are the factors affecting Saudi citizens’ use of social media to communicate with the government? To answer this research question, the research aims to validate the UTAUT model for examining social media tools from the citizen perspective. An amendment will be proposed to fit the adoption of social media platforms as a communication channel in government by using a developed conceptual model which integrates constructs from the UTAUT model and others external variables based on the literature review. The set of potential factors that affect these citizens' decisions to adopt social media to communicate with their government has been identified as perceived encouragement, trust and cultural influence. The connection between the above-mentioned constructs from the basis for the research hypothesis will be examined in the light of a quantitative methodology. Data collection will be performed through a survey targeting a number of Saudi citizens who are social media users. The data collected from the primary survey will later be analysed by using statistical methods. The outcomes of this research project are argued to have potential contributions to the fields of social media and e-Government adoption, both on the theoretical and practical levels. It is believed that this research project is the first of its type that attempts to identify the factors that affect citizens’ adoption of social media to communicate with the government. The importance of identifying these factors stems from the potential use of them to enhance the government’s implementation of social media and help in making more accurate decisions and strategies based on comprehending the most important factors that affect citizens’ decisions.

Keywords: social media, adoption, citizen, UTAUT model

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Authors: Demet Ozgur-Unluakin, Busenur Turkali, Ayse Karacaorenli

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Maintenance strategies can be classified into two types, which are reactive and proactive, with respect to the time of the failure and maintenance. If the maintenance activity is done after a breakdown, it is called reactive maintenance. On the other hand, proactive maintenance, which is further divided as preventive and predictive, focuses on maintaining components before a failure occurs to prevent expensive halts. Recently, the number of interacting components in a system has increased rapidly and therefore, the structure of the systems have become more complex. This situation has made it difficult to provide the right maintenance decisions. Herewith, determining effective decisions has played a significant role. In multi-component systems, many methodologies and strategies can be applied when a component or a system has already broken down or when it is desired to identify and avoid proactively defects that could lead to future failure. This study focuses on the comparison of various maintenance strategies on a multi-component dynamic system. Components in the system are hidden, although there exists partial observability to the decision maker and they deteriorate in time. Several predefined policies under corrective, preventive and predictive maintenance strategies are considered to minimize the total maintenance cost in a planning horizon. The policies are simulated via Dynamic Bayesian Networks on a multi-component system with different policy parameters and cost scenarios, and their performances are evaluated. Results show that when the difference between the corrective and proactive maintenance cost is low, none of the proactive maintenance policies is significantly better than the corrective maintenance. However, when the difference is increased, at least one policy parameter for each proactive maintenance strategy gives significantly lower cost than the corrective maintenance.

Keywords: decision making, dynamic Bayesian networks, maintenance, multi-component systems, reliability

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Authors: Yingxiao Ye, Christopher Doehring, Angelos Georghiou, Hugh Robinson, Phebe Vayanos

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Human development is a threat to biodiversity, and conservation organizations (COs) are purchasing land to protect areas for biodiversity preservation. However, COs have limited budgets and thus face hard prioritization decisions that are confounded by uncertainty in future human land use. This research proposes a data-driven sequential planning model to help COs choose land parcels that minimize the uncertain human impact on biodiversity. The proposed model is robust to uncertain development, and the sequential decision-making process is adaptive, allowing land purchase decisions to adapt to human land use as it unfolds. The cellular automata model is leveraged to simulate land use development based on climate data, land characteristics, and development threat index from NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center. This simulation is used to model uncertainty in the problem. This research leverages state-of-the-art techniques in the robust optimization literature to propose a computationally tractable reformulation of the model, which can be solved routinely by off-the-shelf solvers like Gurobi or CPLEX. Numerical results based on real data from the Jaguar in Central and South America show that the proposed method reduces conservation loss by 19.46% on average compared to standard approaches such as MARXAN used in practice for biodiversity conservation. Our method may better help guide the decision process in land acquisition and thereby allow conservation organizations to maximize the impact of limited resources.

Keywords: data-driven robust optimization, biodiversity conservation, uncertainty simulation, adaptive sequential planning

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Authors: Justin Woulfe

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Siloed logistics and supply chain management systems throughout the Department of Defense (DOD) has led to disparate approaches to modeling and simulation (M&S), a lack of understanding of how one system impacts the whole, and issues with “optimal” solutions that are good for one organization but have dramatic negative impacts on another. Many different systems have evolved to try to understand and account for uncertainty and try to reduce the consequences of the unknown. As the DoD undertakes expansive digital transformation initiatives, there is an opportunity to fuse and leverage traditionally disparate data into a centrally hosted source of truth. With a streamlined process incorporating machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI), advanced M&S will enable informed decisions guiding program success via optimized operational readiness and improved mission success. One of the current challenges is to leverage the terabytes of data generated by monitored systems to provide actionable information for all levels of users. The implementation of a cloud-based application analyzing data transactions, learning and predicting future states from current and past states in real-time, and communicating those anticipated states is an appropriate solution for the purposes of reduced latency and improved confidence in decisions. Decisions made from an ML and AI application combined with advanced optimization algorithms will improve the mission success and performance of systems, which will improve the overall cost and effectiveness of any program. The Systecon team constructs and employs model-based simulations, cutting across traditional silos of data, aggregating maintenance, and supply data, incorporating sensor information, and applying optimization and simulation methods to an as-maintained digital twin with the ability to aggregate results across a system’s lifecycle and across logical and operational groupings of systems. This coupling of data throughout the enterprise enables tactical, operational, and strategic decision support, detachable and deployable logistics services, and configuration-based automated distribution of digital technical and product data to enhance supply and logistics operations. As a complete solution, this approach significantly reduces program risk by allowing flexible configuration of data, data relationships, business process workflows, and early test and evaluation, especially budget trade-off analyses. A true capability to tie resources (dollars) to weapon system readiness in alignment with the real-world scenarios a warfighter may experience has been an objective yet to be realized to date. By developing and solidifying an organic capability to directly relate dollars to readiness and to inform the digital twin, the decision-maker is now empowered through valuable insight and traceability. This type of educated decision-making provides an advantage over the adversaries who struggle with maintaining system readiness at an affordable cost. The M&S capability developed allows program managers to independently evaluate system design and support decisions by quantifying their impact on operational availability and operations and support cost resulting in the ability to simultaneously optimize readiness and cost. This will allow the stakeholders to make data-driven decisions when trading cost and readiness throughout the life of the program. Finally, sponsors are available to validate product deliverables with efficiency and much higher accuracy than in previous years.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, digital transformation, machine learning, predictive analytics

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Authors: Juan Sebastián Rivera Soriano, Rosa Urbano Gutiérrez

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The Shodan House and the Sarabhai House (Ahmedabad, India, 1954 and 1955, respectively) are considered some of the most important works of Le Corbusier produced in the last stage of his career. There are some academic publications that study the compositional and formal aspects of their architectural design, but there is no in-depth investigation into how the climatic conditions of this region were a determining factor in the design decisions implemented in these projects. This paper argues that Le Corbusier developed a specific architectural design strategy for these buildings based on scientific research on climate in the Indian context. This new language was informed by a pioneering study and interpretation of climatic data as a design methodology that would even involve the development of new design tools. This study investigated whether their use of climatic data meets values and levels of accuracy obtained with contemporary instruments and tools, such as Energy Plus weather data files and Climate Consultant. It also intended to find out if Le Corbusier's office’s intentions and decisions were indeed appropriate and efficient for those climate conditions by assessing these projects using BIM models and energy performance simulations from Design Builder. Accurate models were built using original historical data through archival research. The outcome is to provide a new understanding of the environment of these houses through the combination of modern building science and architectural history. The results confirm that in these houses, it was achieved a model of low energy consumption. This paper contributes new evidence not only on exemplary modern architecture concerned with environmental performance but also on how it developed progressive thinking in this direction.

Keywords: bioclimatic architecture, Le Corbusier, Shodan, Sarabhai Houses

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Authors: Yongsheng Guo, Xiaoxian Zhu, Mandella Osei-Assibey Bonsu

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This study explores the effects of national culture on consumer behaviour by identifying the characteristics of Chinese consumers’ decision making in Europe. It offers a better understanding of how cultural factors affect consumers’ behaviour, and how consumers make decisions in other nations with different culture. It adopted a grounded theory approach and conducted twenty-four in-depth interviews. Grounded theory models are developed to link the causal conditions, process and consequences. Results reveal that some cultural factors including conservatism, emotionality, acquaintance community, long-term orientation and principles affect Chinese consumers when making purchase decisions in Europe. Most Chinese consumers plan and prepare their expenditure and stay in Europe as cultural learners, and purchase durable products or assets as investment, and share their experiences within a community. This study identified potential problems such as political and social environment, complex procedures, and restrictions. This study found that external factors influence on internal factors and then internal characters determine consumer behaviour. This study proposes that cultural traits developed in convergence evolution through social selection and Chinese consumers persist most characters but adapt some perceptions and actions overtime in other countries. This study suggests that cultural marketing could be adopted by companies to reflect consumers’ preferences. Agencies, shops, and the authorities could take actions to reduce the complexity and restrictions.

Keywords: national culture, consumer behaviour, decision making, cultural marketing

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Authors: Stephan Printz, Kristina Lahl, René Vossen, Sabina Jeschke

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Strategic investment decisions are characterized by high innovation potential and long-term effects on the competitiveness of enterprises. Due to the uncertainty and risks involved in this complex decision making process, the need arises for well-structured support activities. A method that considers cost and the long-term added value is the cost-benefit effectiveness estimation. One of those methods is the “profitability estimation focused on benefits – PEFB”-method developed at the Institute of Management Cybernetics at RWTH Aachen University. The method copes with the challenges associated with strategic investment decisions by integrating long-term non-monetary aspects whilst also mapping the chronological sequence of an investment within the organization’s target system. Thus, this method is characterized as a holistic approach for the evaluation of costs and benefits of an investment. This participation-oriented method was applied to business environments in many workshops. The results of the workshops are a library of more than 96 cost aspects, as well as 122 benefit aspects. These aspects are preprocessed and comparatively analyzed with regards to their alignment to a series of risk levels. For the first time, an accumulation and a distribution of cost and benefit aspects regarding their impact and probability of occurrence are given. The results give evidence that the PEFB-method combines precise measures of financial accounting with the incorporation of benefits. Finally, the results constitute the basics for using information technology and data science for decision support when applying within the PEFB-method.

Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, multi-criteria decision, profitability estimation focused on benefits, risk and uncertainty analysis

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Authors: Siham Rahoui, Amr Mahfouz, Amr Arisha

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In a highly competitive environment characterised by uncertainty and disruptions, such as the recent COVID-19 outbreak, supply chains (SC) face the challenge of maintaining their cost at minimum levels while continuing to provide customers with high-quality products and services. More importantly, businesses in such an economic context strive to maintain survival by keeping the cost of undertaken activities (such as logistics) low and in-house. To do so, managers need to understand the costs associated with different products and services in order to have a clear vision of the SC performance, maintain profitability levels, and make strategic decisions. In this context, SC literature explored different costing models that sought to determine the costs of undertaking supply chain-related activities. While some cost accounting techniques have been extensively explored in the SC context, more contributions are needed to explore the potential of time driven activity-based costing (TDABC). More specifically, more applications are needed in the manufacturing context of the SC, where the debate is ongoing. The aim of the study is to assess the capability of the technique to assess the operational performance of the logistics function. Through a case study methodology applied to a manufacturing company operating in the automotive industry, TDABC evaluates the efficiency of the current configuration and its logistics processes. The study shows that monitoring the process efficiency and cost efficiency leads to strategic decisions that contributed to improve the overall efficiency of the logistics processes.

Keywords: efficiency, operational performance, supply chain costing, time driven activity based costing

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Authors: Umugwaneza Francoise, Ntamazeze Janviere, Donghong Ding

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Entrepreneurship has been considered by majority people from developing world as “no other option” kind of career. Consequently, for a long time entrepreneurship in developing countries has been mainly practiced by people who have low or not at all formal education. Even today, to some extent, much of the actions taken by governments, donors and some societies have tendency to consider entrepreneurship as an instrument to lift up the most vulnerable population including uneducated women, school drop outers, people with disabilities and other groups who live with some sort of vulnerability. However, there is a shortage of knowledge based and know-how entrepreneurship in developing countries. Although, the entrepreneurship done with formal educated people would contribute indispensably and sustain the development, the low numbers of formal educated people become entrepreneurs in developing countries. Empirically, this paper investigated the influential factors affecting the entrepreneurial motivation, intentions and decision among African scientists and engineers postgraduate from china universities since 1995 to 2014. Results revealed that 39% are entrepreneurs, 43% work for private sectors and 18% work for governments. Only 6% of respondents are in technological entrepreneurship related to their field of graduation. Study location, mentors or research supervisors and life style are the major factors influenced their decisions to become entrepreneurs whereas complex financial systems and political instability pushed some to employments. Interestingly, significant number of entrepreneurs did not have any entrepreneurial intentions. This paper concludes with suggestions to policy makers and investors in order to encouraging technological entrepreneurs which will provide more opportunities, create jobs and improve people’s quality of life.

Keywords: technological entrepreneurship, entrepreneurial motivation, entrepreneurship decision making, entrepreneurship intentions, formal education

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Authors: Deyadeen Ali Alshibani

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In the literature, the multi-armed bandit problem as a statistical decision model of an agent trying to optimize his decisions while improving his information at the same time. There are several different algorithms models and their applications on this problem. In this paper, we evaluate the Regret-regression through comparing with Q-learning method. A simulation on determination of optimal treatment regime is presented in detail.

Keywords: optimal, bandit problem, optimization, dynamic programming

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Authors: Belinda Brunner

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Objectives: Communicate common test constructs of well-known higher education admissions tests. Discuss influences on admissions test construct definition and design and discuss research on related to factors influencing success in academic study. Discuss how admissions tests can be used to identify relevant talent. Examine how admissions test can be used to facilitate educational mobility and inform selection decisions when the prerequisite curricula is not standardized Observations: Generally speaking, constructs of admissions tests can be placed along a continuum from curriculum-related knowledge to more general reasoning abilities. For example, subject-specific achievement tests are more closely aligned to a prescribed curriculum, while reasoning tests are typically not associated with a specific curriculum. This session will draw reference from the test-constructs of well-known international higher education admissions tests, such as the UK clinical aptitude test (UKCAT) which is used for medicine and dentistry admissions. Conclusions: The purpose of academic admissions testing is to identify potential students with the prerequisite skills set needed to succeed in the academic environment, but how can the test construct help achieve this goal? Determination of the appropriate test construct for tests used in the admissions selection decisions should be influenced by a number of factors, including the preceding academic curricula, other criteria influencing the admissions decision, and the principal purpose for testing. Attendees of this session will learn the types of aptitudes and knowledge that are assessed higher education admissions tests and will have the opportunity to gain insight into how careful and deliberate consideration of the desired test constructs can aid in identifying potential students with the greatest likelihood of success in medical school.

Keywords: admissions, measuring success, selection, identify skills

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Authors: Ginés Hernández-Cánovas, Mª Camino Ramón-Llorens, Johanna Koëter-Kant

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This paper uses a survey data-set of 837 Spanish SMEs to analyze the association between borrower discouragement and prior firm´s strategic decisions, while controlling for firm and owner characteristics. While existing literature has neglected factors limiting the demand for resources by an overreliance on arguments which attempt to explain the existence of discouraged borrowers solely in terms of lack of access to supply of credit. The objective of this paper is to show that factors limiting the demand for resources and, therefore, reducing the availability of funds, can be traced back to the firm manager´s decision. Our hypothesis is that managers that undertake strategic decisions seeking growth or improvement in their business performance participate more in the banking market than those showing contentment with their current business situation. Our results shows that SMEs that undertake an active role in research and development activities and that achieve improvements in the operating performance of their business are less likely to be discouraged from applying for a loan. Who needs credit and who applies for credit is important for firms, prospective lenders and policymakers interested in the financial health of these firms. Credit constrained firms are less likely to invest in R&D and to introduce new products, possibly harming long-term economic growth. Knowing how important borrower discouragement is in Europe, is important for judging the priority which should be attached to government policies aimed at reducing its effects. For example, policy makers could encourage the transparency about credit eligibility and conditions in order to reduce discouragement.

Keywords: discouragement, financial constraints, SMEs financing

Procedia PDF Downloads 321