Search results for: terrorism

Authors: Inmaculada Yuste Martinez

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Since July 5, 2014, Abubaker al Bagdadi, leader of the Islamic State since 2010 climbed the pulpit of the Great Mosque of Al Nuri of Mosul and proclaimed the Caliphate, the number of fighters who have travelled to Syria to join the Caliphate has increased as never before. Although it is true that the phenomenon of foreign fighters is not a new phenomenon, as it occurred after the Spanish Civil War, Republicans from Ireland and the conflict of the Balkans among others, it is highly relevant the fact that in this case, it has reached figures unknown in Europe until now. The approval of the resolution 2178 (2014) of the Security Council, foreign terrorist fighters placed the subject a priority position on the International agenda. The available data allow us to affirm that women have increasingly assumed operative functions in jihadist terrorism and in the activities linked to it in the development of attacks in the European Union, including minors and young adults. In the case of Spain, one in four of the detainees in 2016 were women, a significant increase compared to 2015. This contrasts with the fact that until 2014 no woman had been prosecuted in Spain for terrorist activities of a jihadist nature. It is fundamental when we talk about the prevention of radicalization and counterterrorism that we do not underestimate the potential threat to the security of countries like Spain that women from the West can assume to the global jihadist movement. This work aims to deepen the radicalization processes of these women and their profiles influencing the female inmate population. It also wants to focus on the importance of creating de-radicalization programs for these inmates since women are a crucial element in radicalization processes. A special focus it is made on young radicalized female inmate population as this target group is the most recoverable and on which it would result more fruitful to intervene. De-radicalization programs must also be designed to fit their profiles and circumstances; a sensitive environment will be prisons and juvenile centers, areas that until now had been unrelated to this problem and which are already hosting the first convicted in judicial offices in Spanish territory. A qualitative research and an empirical and analytical method has been implemented in this work, focused on the cases that took place in Spain of young women and the imaginary that the Islamic State uses for the processes of radicalization for this target group and how it does not fit with their real role in the Jihad, as opposed to other movements in which women do have a real and active role in the armed conflict as YPJ do it as a part of the armed wing of the Democratic Union Party of Syria.

Keywords: caliphate, de-radicalization, foreign fighter, gender perspective, ISIS, jihadism, recruitment

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Authors: Louise Reyntjens

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In response to Islamic-inspired terrorism and the growing trend of foreign fighters, European governments are increasingly relying on the deprivation of citizenship as a security tool. This development fits within a broader securitization of immigration, where the terrorist threat is perceived as emanating from abroad. As a result, immigration law became more and more ‘securitized’. The European migration crisis has reinforced this trend. This research evaluates the deprivation of citizenship from a human rights perspective. For this, the author selected four European countries for a comparative study: Belgium, France, the United Kingdom and Sweden. All these countries face similar social and security issues, vitalizing (the debate on) deprivation of citizenship as a counterterrorism tool. Yet, they adopt a very different approach on this: The United Kingdom positions itself on the repressive side of the spectrum. Sweden on the other hand, also ‘securitized’ its immigration policy after the recent terrorist hit in Stockholm but remains on the tolerant side of the spectrum. Belgium and France are situated in between. This contribution evaluates the deprivation of citizenship in Belgium. Belgian law has provided the possibility to strip someone of their Belgian citizenship since 1919. However, the provision long remained a dead letter. The 2015 Charlie Hebdo attacks in Paris sparked a series of legislative changes, elevating the deprivation measure to a key security tool in Belgian law. Yet, the measure raises profound human rights issues. Firstly, it infringes the right to private and family life. As provided by Article 8 (2) European Court of Human Right (ECHR), this right can be limited if necessary for national security and public safety. Serious questions can however be raised about the necessity for the national security of depriving an individual of its citizenship. Behavior giving rise to this measure will generally be governed by criminal law. From a security perspective, criminal detention will thus already provide in removing the individual from society. Moreover, simply stripping an individual of its citizenship and deporting them constitutes a failure of criminal law’s responsibility to prosecute criminal behavior. Deprivation of citizenship is also discriminatory, because it differentiates, without a legitimate reason, between those liable to deprivation and those who are not. It thereby installs a secondary class of citizens, violating the European Court of Human Right’s principle that no distinction can be tolerated between children on the basis of the status of their parents. If followed by expulsion, deprivation also seriously jeopardizes the right to life and prohibition of torture. This contribution explores the human rights consequences of citizenship deprivation as a security tool in Belgium. It also offers a critical view on its efficacy for protecting national security.

Keywords: Belgium, counterterrorism strategies, deprivation of citizenship, human rights, immigration law

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Authors: John Hardy

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The domestic security environment in Europe has changed dramatically in recent years. Since January 2015, a significant number of domestic security threats that emerged in Europe were located in Belgium, France and the United Kingdom. While some threats were detected in the planning phase, many also resulted in terrorist attacks. Authorities in all three countries instituted special or emergency measures to provide additional security to their populations. Each country combined an additional policing presence with a specific military operation to contribute to a comprehensive security response to domestic threats. This study presents a cross-case analysis of three countries’ civilian and military responses to domestic security threats in Europe. Each case study features a unique approach to combining civilian and military capabilities in similar domestic security operations during the same time period and threat environment. The research design focuses on five variables relevant to the relationship between civilian and military roles in each security response. These are the distinction between policing and military roles, the legal framework for the domestic deployment of military forces, prior experience in civil-military coordination, the institutional framework for threat assessments, and the level of public support for the domestic use of military forces. These variables examine the influence of domestic social, political, and legal factors on the design of combined civil-military operations in response to domestic security threats. Each case study focuses on a specific operation: Operation Vigilant Guard in Belgium, Operation Sentinel in France, and Operation Temperer in the United Kingdom. The results demonstrate that the level of distinction between policing and military roles and the existence of a clear and robust legal framework for the domestic use force by military personnel significantly influence the design and implementation of civilian and military roles in domestic security operations. The findings of this study indicate that Belgium, France and the United Kingdom experienced different design and implementation challenges for their domestic security operations. Belgium and France initially had less-developed legal frameworks for deploying the military in domestic security operations than the United Kingdom. This was offset by public support for enacting emergency measures and the strength of existing civil-military coordination mechanisms. The United Kingdom had a well-developed legal framework for integrating civilian and military capabilities in domestic security operations. However, its experiences in Ireland also made the government more sensitive to public perceptions regarding the domestic deployment of military forces.

Keywords: counter-terrorism, democracy, homeland security, intelligence, militarization, policing

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Authors: John Hardy

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Over the last decade, the world has witnessed an unprecedented rise in the quality and availability of violent extremist propaganda. This phenomenon has been fueled primarily by three interrelated trends: rapid adoption of online content mediums by creators of violent extremist propaganda, increasing sophistication of violent extremist content production, and greater coordination of content and action across violent extremist organizations. In particular, the self-styled ‘Islamic State’ attracted widespread attention from its supporters and detractors alike by mixing shocking video and imagery content in with substantive ideological and political content. Although this practice was widely condemned for its brutality, it proved to be effective at engaging with a variety of international audiences and encouraging potential supporters to seek further information. The reasons for the noteworthy success of this kind of shock-value propaganda content remain unclear, despite many governments’ attempts to produce counterpropaganda. This study examines violent extremist propaganda distributed by five terrorist organizations between 2010 and 2016, using material released by the ‎Al Hayat Media Center of the Islamic State, Boko Haram, Al Qaeda, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. The time period covers all issues of the infamous publications Inspire and Dabiq, as well as the most shocking video content released by the Islamic State and its affiliates. The study uses frame analysis to distinguish thematic from symbolic content in violent extremist propaganda by contrasting the ways that substantive ideology issues were framed against the use of symbols and violence to garner attention and to stylize propaganda. The results demonstrate that thematic content focuses significantly on diagnostic frames, which explain violent extremist groups’ causes, and prognostic frames, which propose solutions to addressing or rectifying the cause shared by groups and their sympathizers. Conversely, symbolic violence is primarily stylistic and rarely linked to thematic issues or motivational framing. Frame analysis provides a useful preliminary tool in disentangling substantive ideological and political content from stylistic brutality in violent extremist propaganda. This provides governments and researchers a method for better understanding the framing and content used to design narratives and propaganda materials used to promote violent extremism around the world. Increased capacity to process and understand violent extremist narratives will further enable governments and non-governmental organizations to develop effective counternarratives which promote non-violent solutions to extremists’ grievances.

Keywords: countering violent extremism, counternarratives, frame analysis, propaganda, terrorism, violent extremism

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Authors: Randall Gray Underwood

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Within the past few decades, zombie cinema has evolved from a niche outgrowth of the horror genre into one of the most widely-discussed and thoroughly-analyzed subgenres of film. Rising to international popularity during the 1970s and 1980s following the release of George Romero’s landmark classic, Night of the Living Dead (1968), and its much-imitated sequel, Dawn of the Dead (1978), the zombie genre returned to global screens in full force at the turn of the century following earth-shattering events such as the 9/11 terrorist attacks, America’s subsequent war in the Middle East, environmental pandemics, and the emergence of a divided and disconnected global populace in the age of social media. Indeed, the presence of the zombie in all manner of art and entertainment—movies, literature, television, video games, comic books, and more—has become nothing short of pervasive, engendering a plethora of scholarly writings, books, opinion pieces, and video essays from all manner of academics, cultural commentators, critics, and casual fans, with each espousing their own theories regarding the zombie’s allegorical and symbolic value within global fiction. Consequently, the walking dead of recent years have been variously positioned as fictive manifestations of human fears of societal collapse, environmental contagion, sexually-transmitted disease, primal regression, dwindling population rates, global terrorism, and the foreign “Other”. Less commonly analyzed within film scholarship, however, is the connection between the zombie’s folkloric roots and native African/Haitian spiritual practice; specifically, how this connection impacts the zombie’s presentation in African films by native storytellers versus in similar narratives told from a western perspective. This work will examine the unlikely connections and contrasts inherent the portrayal of the traditional African/Haitian zombie (or zombi, in Haitian French) in the Nollywood film Witchdoctor of the Livingdead (1985, Charles Abi Enonchong) versus its depiction in the early Hollywood films White Zombie (1932, Victor Halperin) and I Walked with a Zombie (1943, Jacques Tourneur), through analysis of each cinemas’ use of the zombie as a visual metaphor for subjugation/slavery, as well as differences in their representation of the the spiritual folklore from which the figure of the zombie originates. Select films from the post-Night of the Living Dead zombie cinema landscape will also warrant brief discussion in relation to Witchdoctor of the Livingdead.

Keywords: Nollywood, Zombie cinema, Horror cinema, Classical Hollywood

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Authors: Eisa Younes Alblooshi

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Counterterrorism strategies, to be effective and efficient, require a sound understanding of the dynamics, the interlinked organizational elements of the terrorist outfits being combated, with a view to having cognizance of their strong points to be guarded against, as well as the vulnerable zones that can be targeted for optimal results in a timely fashion by counterterrorism agencies. A unique model regarding the organizational imperatives was evolved in this research through likening the terrorist organizations with the traditional commercial ones, with a view to understanding in detail the dynamics of interconnectivity and dependencies, and the related compulsions facing the leaderships of such outfits that provide counterterrorism agencies with opportunities for forging better strategies. It involved assessing the evolving organizational dynamics and imperatives of different types of terrorist organizations, to enable the researcher to construct a prototype model that defines the progression and linkages of the related organizational elements of such organizations. It required detailed analysis of how the various elements are connected, with sequencing identified, as any outfit positions itself with respect to its external environment and internal dynamics. A case study focusing on a transnational radical religious state-sponsored terrorist organization was conducted to validate the research findings and to further strengthen the specific counterterrorism strategies. Six different variants of the business model of terrorist organizations were identified, categorized based on their outreach, mission, and status of any state sponsorship. The variants represent vast majority of the range of terrorist organizations acting locally or globally. The model shows the progression and dynamics of these organizations through various dimensions including mission, leadership, outreach, state sponsorship status, resulting in the organizational structure, state of autonomy, preference divergence in its fold, recruitment core, propagation avenues, down to their capacity to adapt, resulting critically in their own life cycles. A major advantage of the model is the utility of mapping terrorist organizations according to their fits to the sundry identified variants, allowing for flexibility and differences within, enabling the researchers and counterterrorism agencies to observe a neat blueprint of the organization’s footprint, along with highlighting the areas to be evaluated for focused target zone selection and timing of counterterrorism interventions. Special consideration is given to the dimension of financing, keeping in context the latest developments regarding cryptocurrencies, hawala, and global anti-money laundering initiatives. Specific counterterrorism strategies and intervention points have been identified for each of the respective model variants, with a view to efficient and effective deployment of resources.

Keywords: terrorism, counterterrorism, model, strategy

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Authors: Erin Lawlor

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In 2008 Time magazine named terrorist rehabilitation as one of the best ideas of the year. The term deradicalisation has become synonymous with rehabilitation within security discourse. The allure for a “quick fix” when managing terrorist populations (particularly within prisons) has led to a focus on prescriptive programmes where there is a distinct lack of exploration into the drivers for a person to disengage or deradicalise from violence. It has been argued that to tackle a snowballing issue that interventions have moved too quickly for both theory development and methodological structure. This overly quick acceptance of a term that lacks rigorous testing, measuring, and monitoring means that there is distinct lack of evidence base for deradicalisation being a genuine process/phenomenon, leading to academics retrospectively attempting to design frameworks and interventions around a concept that is not truly understood. The UK Home Office has openly acknowledged the lack of empirical data on this subject. This lack of evidence has a direct impact on policy and intervention development. Extremism and deradicalisation are issues that affect public health outcomes on a global scale, to the point that terrorism has now been added to the list of causes of trauma, both in the direct form of being victim of an attack but also the indirect context of witnesses, children and ordinary citizens who live in daily fear. This study critiques current deradicalisation discourses to establish whether public health approaches offer opportunities for development. The research begins by exploring the theoretical constructs of both what deradicalisation, and public health issues are. Questioning: What does deradicalisation involve? Is there an evidential base on which deradicalisation theory has established itself? What theory are public health interventions devised from? What does success look like in both fields? From establishing this base, current deradicalisation practices will then be explored through examples of work already being carried out. Critiques can be broken into discussion points of: Language, the difficulties with conducting empirical studies and the issues around outcome measurements that deradicalisation interventions face. This study argues that a public health approach towards deradicalisation offers the opportunity to attempt to bring clarity to the definitions of radicalisation, identify what could be modified through intervention and offer insights into the evaluation of interventions. As opposed to simply focusing on an element of deradicalisation and analysing that in isolation, a public health approach allows for what the literature has pointed out is missing, a comprehensive analysis of current interventions and information on creating efficacy monitoring systems. Interventions, policies, guidance, and practices in both the UK and Australia will be compared and contrasted, due to the joint nature of this research between Sheffield Hallam University and La Trobe, Melbourne.

Keywords: radicalisation, deradicalisation, violent extremism, public health

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Authors: Flavia Kroetz

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From 1964 to 1985, Brazil was ruled by a dictatorial regime that, under the discourse of fight against terrorism and subversion, implemented cruel and atrocious practices against anyone who opposed the State ideology. At the same time, several Latin American countries faced dictatorial periods and experienced State repression through apparatuses of violence institutionalized in the very governmental structure. Despite the correspondence between repressive methods adopted by authoritarian regimes in States such as Argentina, Chile, El Salvador, Peru and Uruguay, the mechanisms of democratic transition adopted with the end of each dictatorship were significantly different. While some States have found ways to deal with past atrocities through serious and transparent investigations of the crimes perpetrated in the name of repression, in others, as in Brazil, a culture of impunity remains rooted in society, manifesting itself in the widespread disbelief of the population in governmental and democratic institutions. While Argentina, Chile, Peru and Uruguay are convincing examples of the possibility and importance of the prosecution of crimes such as torture, forced disappearance and murder committed by the State, El Salvador demonstrates the complete failure to punish or at least remove from power the perpetrators of serious crimes against civilians and political opponents. In a scenario of widespread violations of human rights, State violence becomes entrenched within society as a daily and even necessary practice. In Brazil, a lack of political and judicial will withstands the impunity of those who, during the military regime, committed serious crimes against human rights under the authority of the State. If the reproduction of violence is a direct consequence of the culture of denial and the rejection of everyone considered to be different, ‘the other’, then the adoption of transitional mechanisms that underpin the historical and political contexts of the time seems essential. Such mechanisms must strengthen democracy through the effective implementation of the rights to memory and to truth, the right to justice and reparations for victims and their families, as well as institutional changes in order to remove from power those who, when in power, could not distinguish between legality and authoritarianism. Against this background, this research analyses the importance of transitional justice for the restoration of democracy, considering the adoption of amnesty laws as a strategy to preclude criminal prosecution of offenses committed during dictatorial regimes. The study investigates the scope of Law No 6.683/79, the Brazilian amnesty law, which, according to a 2010 decision of the Brazilian Constitutional Supreme Court, granted amnesty to those responsible for political crimes and related crimes, committed between September 2, 1961 and August 15, 1979. Was the purpose of this Law to grant amnesty to violent crimes committed by the State? If so, is it possible to recognize the legitimacy of a Congress composed of indirectly elected politicians controlled by the dictatorship?

Keywords: amnesty law, criminal justice, dictatorship, state violence

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Authors: Bellinda R. Chinowawa

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As part of a wider strategy to stifle civil society, Governments routinely resort to judicial harassment through the use of civil and criminal to impugn the integrity of human rights defenders and that of perceived political opponents. This phenomenon is rife in militarised or autocratic regimes where there is no tolerance for dissenting voices. Zimbabwe, ostensibly a presidential republic founded on the values of transparency, equality, freedom, is characterised by brutal suppression of perceived political opponents and those who assert their basic human rights. This is done through a wide range of tactics including unlawful arrests and detention, torture and other cruel, inhuman degrading treatment and enforced disappearances. Professionals including, journalists and doctors are similarly not spared from state attack. For human rights defenders, the most widely used tool of repression is that of judicial harassment where the judicial system is used to persecute them. This can include the levying of criminal charges, civil lawsuits and unnecessary administrative proceedings. Charges preferred against range from petty offences such as criminal nuisance to more serious charges of terrorism and subverting a constitutional government. Additionally, government sponsored individuals and organisations file strategic lawsuits with pecuniary implications order to intimidate and silence critics and engender self-censorship. Some HRDs are convicted and sentenced to prison terms, despite not being criminals in a true sense. While others are acquitted judicial harassment diverts energy and resources away from their human rights work. Through a consideration of statistical data reported by human rights organisations and face to face interviews with a cross section of human rights defenders, the article will map the incidence of judicial harassment in Zimbabwe. The article will consider the multi-level sociological and contextual factors which influence the Government of Zimbabwe to have easy recourse to criminal law and the debilitating effect of these actions on HRDs. These factors include the breakdown of the rule of law resulting in state capture of the judiciary, the proven efficacy of judicial harassment from colonial times to date, and the lack of an adequate redress mechanism at international level. By mapping the use of the judiciary as a tool of repression, from the inception of modern day Zimbabwe to date, it is hoped that HRDs will realise that they are part of a greater community of activists throughout the ages and should emboldened in the realisation that it is an age old tactic used by fallen regimes which should not deter them from calling for accountability.

Keywords: autocratic regime, colonial legacy, judicial harassment, human rights defenders

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Authors: Daniel O. Kleinsman

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The 2019 terrorist attack on two masjidain in Christchurch, New Zealand, was a shocking demonstration of the harm that can be caused by hate crime. As legal and governmental responses to the attack struggle to provide effective remedies to its victims, restorative justice has emerged as a tool that can assist, in terms of both meeting victims’ needs and discharging the obligations of the state under the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), arts 2(3), 26, 27. Restorative justice is a model that emphasizes the repair of harm caused or revealed by unjust behavior. It also prioritises the facilitation of dialogue, the restoration of equitable relationships, and the prevention of future harm. Returning to the case study, in the remarks of the sentencing judge, the terrorist’s actions were described as a hate crime of vicious malevolence that the Court was required to decisively reject, as anathema to the values of acceptance, tolerance and mutual respect upon which New Zealand’s inclusive society is based and which the country strives to maintain. This was one of the reasons for which the terrorist received a life sentence with no possibility of parole. However, in the report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into the Attack, it was found that victims felt the attack occurred within the context of widespread racism, discrimination and Islamophobia, where hostile behaviors, including hate-based threats and attacks, were rarely recorded, analysed or acted on. It was also found that the Government had inappropriately concentrated intelligence resources on the risk of ‘Islamist’ terrorism and had failed to adequately respond to concerns raised about threats against the Muslim community. In this light, the remarks of the sentencing judge can be seen to reflect a criminal justice system that, in the absence of other remedies, denies systemic accountability and renders hate crime an isolated incident rather than an expression of more widespread discrimination and hate to be holistically addressed. One of the recommendations of the Royal Commission was to explore with victims the desirability and design of restorative justice processes. This presents an opportunity for victims to meet with state representatives and pursue effective remedies (ICCPR art 2(3)) not only for the harm caused by the terrorist but the harm revealed by a system that has exposed the minority Muslim community in New Zealand to hate in all forms, including but not limited to violent extremism. In this sense, restorative justice can also assist the state in discharging its wider obligations to protect all persons from discrimination (art 26) and allow ethnic and religious minorities to enjoy their own culture and profess and practice their own religion (art 27). It can also help give effect to the law and its purpose as a remedy to hate crime, as expressed in this case study by the sentencing judge.

Keywords: hate crime, restorative justice, minorities, victims' rights

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Authors: Maria Elisabete da Costa Ferreira

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Violent crimes, such as terrorism, organized crime and homicides, are increasing all around the World. This fact calls for the necessity to reflect upon the effectiveness of the deterrence offered by the criminal sanctions set today. The severity of the penalties depends on the social, cultural and even religious background of the State in question. In some States, such as Portugal, the common citizen finds the sentences too soft on the perpetrator and too long to be obtained. On the other hand, in 2023, several States still apply the death penalty, among which the USA, China, and most Middle Eastern countries. As for life in prison without the possibility of parole, the number of countries accepting this possibility in their criminal law is much higher, including England and Wales, the Netherlands, Moldova, Bulgaria, Italy, Ukraine, Poland, Turkey, Russia, and Serbia. This research aims to demonstrate that both the death penalty and life in prison penalty violate the principles of human dignity and social rehabilitation of the perpetrator and propose alternative penalties that can effectively protect society from crime. The research utilizes three main methodologies: the historical method, the comparative method, and the critical method. The historical method is employed to investigate the evolution of criminal penalties over time. The comparative method is used to compare the practices of different states regarding the death penalty and life in prison penalty. Finally, the critical method is applied to analyze and evaluate the shortcomings of these penalties. From a theoretical point of view, there have been drawn several theories throughout the years to support the idea that perpetrators of crimes should be punished. Today, one of the most commonly accepted theories sustains that the penalty will only be legitimate when necessary to protect society from the perpetrator and to rehabilitate him into society. Foremost, the choice of the penalty and the form of its execution should be guided by the principle of human dignity. The death penalty and life in prison penalty fail to achieve the goal of rehabilitation and disregard the human dignity principle. The right to life is a fundamental right declared in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and stated in most Constitutions in the World. In conclusion, the research demonstrates that the death penalty and life in prison penalty are in violation of the principles of human dignity and social rehabilitation. These penalties fail to achieve their intended goals and disregard fundamental human rights. Although it may sound tempting to some States to rethink the current system of instated penalties to the admission of these penalties, it is imperative to take the inverse road because the protection of society must be achieved with respect to the perpetrator's fundamental rights, so, alternative penalties must be enforced. Society's belief in its citizen's ability to change must be reinforced, and, ultimately, the belief in Humankind. The findings of this research contribute to the discussion on the use of these penalties and aim to contribute to their decreasing usage in society.

Keywords: death penalty, life in prison penalty, human dignity, rehabilitation

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Authors: Venus Torabi

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ISIS, the terrorist organization, modified two videogames, ARMA III and Grand Theft Auto 5 (2013) as means of online recruitment and ideological propaganda. The urge to study the mechanism at work, whether it has been successful or not, derives (Digital) Humanities experts to explore how codes of terror, Islamic ideology and recruitment strategies are incorporated into the ludic mechanics of videogames. Another aspect of the significance lies in the fact that this is a latent problem that has not been fully addressed in an interdisciplinary framework prior to this study, to the best of the researcher’s knowledge. Therefore, due to the complexity of the subject, the present paper entangles with game studies, philosophical and religious poles to form the methodology of conducting the research. As a contextualized epistemology of such exploitation of videogames, the core argument is building on the notion of “Culture Industry” proposed by Theodore W. Adorno and Max Horkheimer in Dialectic of Enlightenment (2002). This article posits that the ideological underpinnings of ISIS’s cause corroborated by the action-bound mechanics of the videogames are in line with adhering to the Islamic Eschatology as a furnishing ground and an excuse in exercising terrorism. It is an account of ISIS’s modification of the videogames, a tool of technological progression to practice online radicalization. Dialectically, this practice is packed up in rhetoric for recognizing a religious myth (the advent of a savior), as a hallmark of regression. The study puts forth that ISIS’s wreaking havoc on the world, both in reality and within action videogames, is negotiating the process of self-assertion in the players of such videogames (by assuming one’s self a member of terrorists) that leads to self-annihilation. It tries to unfold how ludic Mod videogames are misused as tools of mass deception towards ethnic cleansing in reality and line with the distorted Eschatological myth. To conclude, this study posits videogames to be a new avenue of mass deception in the framework of the Culture Industry. Yet, this emerges as a two-edged sword of mass deception in ISIS’s modification of videogames. It shows that ISIS is not only trying to hijack the minds through online/ludic recruitment, it potentially deceives the Muslim communities or those prone to radicalization into believing that it's terrorist practices are preparing the world for the advent of a religious savior based on Islamic Eschatology. This is to claim that the harsh actions of the videogames are potentially breeding minds by seeds of terrorist propaganda and numbing them to violence. The real world becomes an extension of that harsh virtual environment in a ludic/actual continuum, the extension that is contributing to the mass deception mechanism of the terrorists, in a clandestine trend.

Keywords: culture industry, dialectic, ISIS, islamic eschatology, mass deception, video games

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Authors: Ashir Ahmed

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Peacekeeping is a collective responsibility of governments, law enforcement agencies, communities, families, and individuals. Moreover, the complex nature of peacekeeping activities requires a holistic and collaborative approach where various community sectors work together to form collective strategies that are likely to be more effective than strategies designed and delivered in isolation. Similarly, it is important to learn from past programs to evaluate the initiatives that have worked well and the areas that need further improvement. Review of recent peacekeeping initiatives suggests that there have been tremendous efforts and resources put in place to deal with the emerging threat of terrorism, radicalization and violent extremism through number of de-radicalization programs. Despite various attempts in designing and delivering successful programs for deradicalization, the threat of people being radicalized is growing more than ever before. This research reviews the prominent de-radicalization programs to draw an understanding of their strengths and weaknesses. Some of the weaknesses in the existing programs include. Inaccessibility: Limited resources, geographical location of potential participants (for offline programs), inaccessibility or inability to use various technologies (for online programs) makes it difficult for people to participate in de-radicalization programs. Timeliness: People might need to wait for a program on a set date/time to get the required information and to get their questions answered. This is particularly true for offline programs. Lack of trust: The privacy issues and lack of trust between participants and program organizers are another hurdle in the success of de-radicalization programs. The fear of sharing participants information with organizations (such as law enforcement agencies) without their consent led them not to participate in these programs. Generalizability: Majority of these programs are very generic in nature and do not cater the specific needs of an individual. Participants in these programs may feel that the contents are irrelevant to their individual situations and hence feel disconnected with purpose of the programs. To address the above-mentioned weaknesses, this research developed a framework that recommends some improvements in de-radicalization programs. One of the recommendations is to offer 24/7, secure, private and online hotline (also referred as helpline) for the people who have any question, concern or situation to discuss with someone who is qualified (a counsellor) to deal with people who are vulnerable to be radicalized. To make these hotline services viable and sustainable, the existing organizations offering support for depression, anxiety or suicidal ideation could additionally host these services. These helplines should be available via phone, the internet, social media and in-person. Since these services will be embedded within existing and well-known services, they would likely to get more visibility and promotion. The anonymous and secure conversation between a person and a counsellor would ensure that a person can discuss the issues without being afraid of information sharing with any third party – without his/her consent. The next stage of this project would include the operationalization of the framework by collaborating with other organizations to host de-radicalization hotlines and would assess the effectiveness of such initiatives.

Keywords: de-radicalization, framework, hotlines, peacekeeping

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Authors: Etibar Guliyev, Durdana Jafarli

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The breakdown of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s and the 9/11 attacks resulted in the global changes created a totally new geopolitical situation for the Muslim populated republics of the former Soviet Union. Located between great powers such as China and Russia, as well as theocratic states like Iran and Afghanistan, the newly independent Central Asian states were facing a dilemma to choose a new politico-ideological course for development. Policies dubbed Perestroyka and Glasnost leading to the collapse of the world’s once superpower brought about a considerable rise in the national and religious self-consciousness of the Muslim population of the USSR where the religion was prohibited under the strict communist rule. Moreover, the religious movements prohibited during the Soviet era acted as a part of national straggle to gain their freedom from Moscow. The policies adopted by the Central Asian countries to manage the religious revival and extremism in their countries vary dramatically from each other. As Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are located between Russia and China and hosting a considerable number of the Russian population, these countries treated Islamic revival more tolerantly trying benefit from it in the nation-building process. The importance of the topic could be explained with the fact that it investigates an alternative way of management of religious activities and movements. The recent developments in the Middle East, Syria and Iraq in particular, and the fact that hundreds of fighters from the Central Asian republics joined the ISIL terrorist organization once again highlights the implications of the proper regulation of religious activities not only for domestic, but also for regional and global politics. The paper is based on multiple research methods. The process trace method was exploited to better understand the Russification and anti-religious policies to which the Central Asian countries were subject during the Soviet era. The comparative analyse method was also used to better understand the common and distinct features of the politics of religion of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan and the rest of the Central Asian countries. Various legislation acts, as well as secondary sources were investigated to this end. Mostly constructivist approach and a theory suggesting that religion supports national identity when there is a third cohesion that threatens both and when elements of national identity are weak. Preliminary findings suggest that in line with policies aimed at gradual reduction of Russian influence, as well as in the face of ever-increasing migration from China, the mentioned countries incorporated some Islamic elements into domestic policies as a part and parcel of national culture. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan did not suppress religious activities, which was case in neighboring states, but allowed in a controlled way Islamic movements to have a relatively freedom of action which in turn led to the less violent religious extremism further boosting national identity.

Keywords: identity, Islam, nationalism, terrorism

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Authors: Soumya Awasthi

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The spread of radical ideology is possible not merely through public meetings, protests, and mosques but even in schools, seminaries, and madrasas. The rhetoric created around the relationship between religion and conflict has been the primary factor for instigating global conflicts – when religion is used to achieve broader objectives. There have been numerous cases of religion-driven conflict around the world be it the Jewish revolt between 66 AD and 628 AD or the 1119 AD the Crusades revolt or during the Cold War period or the rise of right-wing politics in India. Some of the major developments which reiterate the significance of religion in the contemporary times include: (1) The emergence of theocracy in Iran in 1979 (2) Resurgence of world-wide religious beliefs in post-Soviet space. (3) Emergence of transnational terrorism shaped by twisted depiction of Islam by the self proclaimed protectors of the religion. Therefore this paper is premised in the argument that religion has always found itself on the periphery of the discipline of International Relations (IR), and has received less attention than it deserves. The focus of the topic is on the discourses of ‘Deobandi’ and its impact both on the geopolitics of the region- particularly in India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan- and also at the global level. Discourse is a mechanism in use since time immemorial and has been a key tool to mobilise masses against the ruling authority. With the help of field surveys, qualitative and analytical method of research in religion and international relations, it has been found that they are numerous madrassas that are running illegally and are unregistered. These seminaries are operating in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA). During the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, relation between religion and geopolitics was highlighted when there was a sudden spread of radical ideas, finding support from countries like Saudi Arabia (who funded the campaign) and Pakistan (which organised the Saudi funds and set up training camps, both educational and military). During this period there was a huge influence of Wahabi theology on the madrasas which started with Deoband philosophy and later became a mix of Wahabi (influenced by Ahmad Ibn Hannabal and Ibn Taimmiya) and Deobandi philosophy, tending towards fundamentalism. Later the impact of regional geopolitics had influence on the global geopolitics when the incidents like attack on the US in 2001, bomb blasts in U.K, Indonesia, Turkey, and Israel in 2000s. In the midst of all this, there were several scholars who pointed towards Deobandi Philosophy as one of the drivers in the creation of armed Islamic groups in Pakistan, Afghanistan. Hence this paper will make an attempt to understand the trend as to how Deobandi religious discourses originating from India have changed over the decades, and who the agents of such changes are. It will throw light on Deoband from pre-independence till date to create a narrative around the religious discourses and Deobandi philosophy and its spill over impact on the map of global and regional security.

Keywords: Deobandi School of Thought, radicalization, regional and global geopolitics, religious discourses, Whabi movement

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Authors: Shosh Shahrabani, Sharon Teitler-Regev, Helena Desivilya Syna, Fotini Voulgaris, Evangelos Tsoukatos, Vitor Ambrosio, Sandra M. Correia Loureiro

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International crises that affect tourism, such as terror attacks, political unrest, and economic crises have become more frequent, and their influence has become broader. The influence of such extreme events depends on their salience in the tourists' awareness. Hence, it is important to understand the mechanisms underlying tourists' selection of travel destinations, especially their perceptions of crisis-related events and the impact of the sociopolitical and economic context in their countries of origin. The current study examined how the socio-political and economic context in the home countries of potential young tourists affected their selection of travel destinations. The objective was to elucidate how the salience of various crises (economic and political) in the tourists' perceptions, due to their experiences at home, color their construal of destinations affected by similar hazards and influence their travel intentions. The study focused on student tourists from Israel, Greece, and Portugal. Today about a fifth of international tourism is based on young people, especially students. These countries were chosen since Greece and Portugal are in the midst of economic crises. In addition, Greece and Portugal have experienced political instability, while Israel has security-related problems (including terrorist incidents). In 2013, a total of 648 students, responded to a questionnaire that included questions concerning attitudes and risk perceptions regarding travel to destinations with various risk hazards as well as socio-demographic details. The results indicate that over half of the Israelis intend to visit Greece or Portugal. The majority of the Portuguese intend to visit Greece, while less than a third of them intend to visit Israel. About half of the Greeks intend to visit Portugal, and most of them do not intend to visit Israel. The results indicate that greater perceived importance of economic crises mitigates the intention to travel to destinations with economic crises for tourists from origin countries that are also marked by economic crises, such as Greece and Portugal. However, for tourists from Israel, a country with a relatively stable economy, issues related to the economy barely affect their intention to travel to the other two countries. The findings also suggest that Greeks and Portuguese who are highly concerned about political unrest are unlikely to select Israel as a tourist destination. In addition, strong apprehension regarding terrorism impedes the intention to travel to destinations marked by terrorist incidents, such as Israel. The current research contributes to the existing literature by highlighting the impact of travelers' personal previous experience with crisis on their risk perceptions and in turn on their intentions to travel to countries with similar risks. Therefore, in a world where such incidents are on the rise, understanding tourists' risk perceptions and behavior and the factors influencing their destination-related decisions are crucial for countries that wish to increase the numbers of incoming tourists.

Keywords: economic crises, political instability, risk perception, young tourists

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Authors: Emir Sunguroglu, Merve Sunguroglu, Yesim Aliefendioglu, Harun Tanrivermis

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Basic human needs range from physiological needs such as food, water and shelter to safety needs such as security, protection from natural disasters and even urban terrorism which are extant and not fulfilled even in urban areas where people live civilly in large communities. These basic needs when arose in urban life lead to a different kind of crime set defined as urban crimes. Urban crimes mostly result from differences between socioeconomic conditions in society. Income inequality increases tendency towards urban crimes. Especially in slum areas and suburbs, urban crimes not only threaten public security but they also affect deliverance of public services. It is highlighted that, construction of urban security against problems caused by urban crimes is not only achieved by involvement of urban security in security of the community but also comprises juridical development and staying above a level of legal standards concurrently. The idea of urban transformation emerged as interventions to demolishment and rebuilding of built environment to solve the unhealthy urban environment, inadequate infrastructure and socioeconomic problems came up during the industrialization process. Considering the probability of urbanization process driving citizens to commit crimes, The United Nations Commission on Human Security’s focus on this theme is conferred to be a proper approach. In this study, the analysis and change in security before, through and after urban transformation, which is one of the tools related to urbanization process, is strived to be discussed through the case of Sincan County Saraycik District. The study also aims to suggest improvements to current legislation on public safety, urban resilience, and urban transformation. In spite of Saraycik District residing in a developing County in Ankara, Turkey, from urbanization perspective as well as socioeconomic and demographic indicators the District exhibits a negative view throughout the County and the country. When related to the county, rates of intentional harm reports, burglary reports, the offense of libel and threat reports and narcotic crime reports are higher. The District is defined as ‘crime hotspot’. Interviews with residents of Saraycik claim that the greatest issue of the neighborhood is Public Order and Security (82.44 %). The District becomes prominent with negative aspects, especially with the presence of unlicensed constructions, occurrence of important social issues such as crime and insecurity and complicated lives of inhabitants from poverty and low standard conditions of living. Additionally, the social structure and demographic properties and crime and insecurity of the field have been addressed in this study. Consequently, it is claimed that urban crime rates were related to level of education, employment and household income, poverty trap, physical condition of housing and structuration, accessibility of public services, security, migration, safety in terms of disasters and emphasized that urban transformation is one of the most important tools in order to provide urban security.

Keywords: urban security, urban crimes, urban transformation, Saraycik district

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Authors: Francesco Saverio Angiò

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The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant / Syria (ISIL/S), Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and People Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet's Teachings and Jihad, also known as ‘Boko Haram’ (BH), have fought successfully against Syria and Iraq, Mali, Nigeria’s government, respectively. According to Napoleoni, the ‘shell-state’ concept can explain the economic dimension and the financing model of the ISIL insurgency. However, she argues that AQIM and BH did not properly plan their financial model. Consequently, her idea would not be suitable to these groups. Nevertheless, AQIM and BH’s economic performances and their (short) territorialisation suggest that their financing models respond to a well-defined strategy, which they were able to adapt to new circumstances. Therefore, Napoleoni’s idea of ‘shell-state’ can be applied to the three jihadist armed groups. In the last five years, together with other similar entities, ISIL/S, AQIM and BH have been fighting against governments with insurgent tactics and terrorism acts, conquering and ruling a quasi-state; a physical space they presented as legitimate territorial entity, thanks to a puritan version of the Islamic law. In these territories, they have exploited the traditional local economic networks. In addition, they have contributed to the development of legal and illegal transnational business activities. They have also established a justice system and created an administrative structure to supply services. Napoleoni’s ‘shell-state’ can describe the evolution of ISIL/S, AQIM and BH, which has switched from an insurgency to a proto or a quasi-state entity, enjoying a significant share of power over territories and populations. Napoleoni first developed and applied the ‘Shell-state’ concept to describe the nature of groups such as the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), before using it to explain the expansion of ISIL. However, her original conceptualisation emphasises on the economic dimension of the rise of the insurgency, focusing on the ‘business’ model and the insurgents’ financing management skills, which permits them to turn into an organisation. However, the idea of groups which use, coordinate and grab some territorial economic activities (at the same time, encouraging new criminal ones), can also be applied to administrative, social, infrastructural, legal and military levels of their insurgency, since they contribute to transform the insurgency to the same extent the economic dimension does. In addition, according to Napoleoni’s view, the ‘shell-state’ prism is valid to understand the ISIL/S phenomenon, because the group has carefully planned their financial steps. Napoleoni affirmed that ISIL/S carries out activities in order to promote their conversion from a group relying on external sponsors to an entity that can penetrate and condition local economies. On the contrary, ‘shell-state’ could not be applied to AQIM or BH, which are acting more like smugglers. Nevertheless, despite its failure to control territories, as ISIL has been able to do, AQIM and BH have responded strategically to their economic circumstances and have defined specific dynamics to ensure a flow of stable funds. Therefore, Napoleoni’s theory is applicable.

Keywords: shell-state, jihadist insurgency, proto or quasi-state entity economic planning, strategic financing

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Authors: Seungsik Yu, Minho Kang

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As the threat of terrorism to nuclear facilities is increasing globally after the attacks of September 11, we are striving to recognize the physical protection system and strengthen the emergency response system. Since 2015, Korea has implemented physical protection security exercise for nuclear facilities. The exercise should be carried out with full cooperation between the operator and response forces. Performance testing of the physical protection system should include appropriate exercises, for example, force-on-force exercises, to determine if the response forces can provide an effective and timely response to prevent sabotage. Significant deficiencies and actions taken should be reported as stipulated by the competent authority. The IAEA(International Atomic Energy Agency) is also preparing force-on-force exercise program documents to support exercise of member states. Currently, ROK(Republic of Korea) is implementing exercise on the force-on-force exercise evaluation system which is developed by itself for the nuclear power plant, and it is necessary to establish the exercise procedure considering the use of the force-on-force exercise evaluation system. The purpose of this study is to establish the work procedures of the three major organizations related to the force-on-force exercise of nuclear power plants in ROK, which conduct exercise using force-on-force exercise evaluation system. The three major organizations are composed of licensee, KINAC (Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control), and the NSSC(Nuclear Safety and Security Commission). Major activities are as follows. First, the licensee establishes and conducts an exercise plan, and when recommendations are derived from the result of the exercise, it prepares and carries out a force-on-force result report including a plan for implementation of the recommendations. Other detailed tasks include consultation with surrounding units for adversary, interviews with exercise participants, support for document evaluation, and self-training to improve the familiarity of the MILES (Multiple Integrated Laser Engagement System). Second, KINAC establishes a force-on-force exercise plan review report and reviews the force-on-force exercise plan report established by licensee. KINAC evaluate force-on-force exercise using exercise evaluation system and prepare training evaluation report. Other detailed tasks include MILES training, adversary consultation, management of exercise evaluation systems, and analysis of exercise evaluation results. Finally, the NSSC decides whether or not to approve the force-on-force exercise and makes a correction request to the nuclear facility based on the exercise results. The most important part of ROK's force-on-force exercise system is the analysis through the exercise evaluation system implemented by KINAC after the exercise. The analytical method proceeds in the order of collecting data from the exercise evaluation system and analyzing the collected data. The exercise application process of the exercise evaluation system introduced in ROK in 2016 will be concretely set up, and a system will be established to provide objective and consistent conclusions between exercise sessions. Based on the conclusions drawn up, the ultimate goal is to complement the physical protection system of licensee so that the system makes licensee respond effectively and timely against sabotage or unauthorized removal of nuclear materials.

Keywords: Force-on-Force exercise, nuclear power plant, physical protection, sabotage, unauthorized removal

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Authors: Dila Ram Bhandari

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Throughout the 20th century, new governments were created where identities such as ethnic, religious, linguistic, caste, communal, tribal, and others played a part in the development of constitutions and the legal system of victim and criminal justice. Acute issues with extremism, poverty, environmental degradation, cybercrimes, human rights violations, crime against, and victimization of both individuals and groups have recently plagued South Asian nations. Everyday massive number of crimes are steadfast, these frequent crimes have made the lives of common citizens restless. Crimes are one of the major threats to society and also for civilization. Crime is a bone of contention that can create a societal disturbance. The old-style crime solving practices are unable to live up to the requirement of existing crime situations. Crime analysis is one of the most important activities of the majority of intelligent and law enforcement organizations all over the world. The South Asia region lacks such a regional coordination mechanism, unlike central Asia of Asia Pacific regions, to facilitate criminal intelligence sharing and operational coordination related to organized crime, including illicit drug trafficking and money laundering. There have been numerous conversations in recent years about using data mining technology to combat crime and terrorism. The Data Detective program from Sentient as a software company, uses data mining techniques to support the police (Sentient, 2017). The goals of this internship are to test out several predictive model solutions and choose the most effective and promising one. First, extensive literature reviews on data mining, crime analysis, and crime data mining were conducted. Sentient offered a 7-year archive of crime statistics that were daily aggregated to produce a univariate dataset. Moreover, a daily incidence type aggregation was performed to produce a multivariate dataset. Each solution's forecast period lasted seven days. Statistical models and neural network models were the two main groups into which the experiments were split. For the crime data, neural networks fared better than statistical models. This study gives a general review of the applied statistics and neural network models. A detailed image of each model's performance on the available data and generalizability is provided by a comparative analysis of all the models on a comparable dataset. Obviously, the studies demonstrated that, in comparison to other models, Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) produced greater prediction. The crime records of 2005-2019 which was collected from Nepal Police headquarter and analysed by R programming. In conclusion, gated recurrent unit implementation could give benefit to police in predicting crime. Hence, time series analysis using GRU could be a prospective additional feature in Data Detective.

Keywords: time series analysis, forecasting, ARIMA, machine learning

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Authors: Myriam Benraad

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On 5 July 2016, just days before the bloody terrorist attack on the Promenade des Anglais in Nice, the Al-Hayat media centre, one of the official propaganda branches of the Islamic State, broadcast a French nasheed which paid tribute to the Paris and Brussels attacks of November 2015 and March 2016. Entitled 'My Revenge', the terrorist anthem was of rare vehemence. It mentioned, sequentially, 'huddled bodies', in a reference to the civilian casualties of Western air strikes in the Iraqi-Syrian zone, 'explosive belts', 'sharp knives', 'large-calibre weapons' as well as 'localised targets'. France was accused of bearing the responsibility for the wave of attacks on its territory since the Charlie Hebdo massacre of January 2015 due to its 'ruthless war' against the Muslim world. Evoking an 'old aggression' and the 'crimes and spoliations' of which France has made itself guilty, the jihadist hymn depicted the rebirth of the caliphate as 'laudable revenge'. The notion of revenge has always been central to contemporary jihadism, understood both as a revolutionary ideology and a global militant movement. In recent years, the attacks carried out in Europe and elsewhere in the world have, for most, been claimed in its name. Whoever says jihad, says drama, yet few studies, if any, have looked at its dramatic and emotional elements, most notably its tragic vengefulness. This seems all the more astonishing that jihad is filled with drama; it could even be seen as a drama in its own right. The jihadists perform a script and take on roles inspired by their respective group’s culture (norms, values, beliefs, and symbols). The militants stage and perform such a script for a designated audience, either partisan, sympathising or hostile towards them and their cause. This research paper will examine the dramaturgy of jihadism and in particular, the genre that best characterises its violence: revenge tragedy. Theoretically, the research will rely on the tools of social movement theory and the sociology of emotions. Methodologically, it will draw from dramaturgical analysis and a combination of qualitative and quantitative tools to attain valuable observations of a number of developments, trends, and patterns. The choice has been made to focus mainly – however not exclusively – on the attacks which have taken place since 2001 in the European Union and more specific member states that have been significantly hit by jihadist terrorism. The research looks at a number of representative longitudinal samples identifying continuities and discontinuities, similarities, but also substantial differences. The preliminary findings tend to establish the relevance and validity of this approach in helping make better sense of sensitisation, mobilisation, and survival dynamics within jihadist groups, and motivations among individuals who have embraced violence. Besides, they illustrate their pertinence for counterterrorism policymakers and practitioners. Through drama, jihadist groups ensure the unceasing regeneration of their militant cause as well as their legitimation among their partisans. Without drama, and without the spectacular ideological staging of reality, they would not be able to maintain their attraction potential and power of persuasion.

Keywords: Jihadism, dramaturgy, revenge, tragedy

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Authors: Omair Anas

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The Persian Gulf has been in turmoil for a long time since the colonial administration has handed over the role to the small and weak kings and emirs who were assured of protection in return of many economic and security promises to them. The regional order, Saudi Arabia evolved was a rentier regional order secured by an expansion of rentier economy and taking responsibility for much of the expenses of the regional order on behalf of relatively poor countries. The two oil booms helped the Saudi state to expand the 'rentier order' driven stability and bring the countries like Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and Palestine under its tutelage. The disruptive misadventure, however, came with Iran's proclamation of the Islamic Revolution in 1979 which it wanted to be exported to its 'un-Islamic and American puppet' Arab neighbours. For Saudi Arabia, even the challenge presented by the socialist-nationalist Arab dictators like Gamal Abdul Nasser and Hafez Al-Assad was not that much threatening to the Saudi Arabia’s then-defensive realism. In the Arab uprisings, the Gulf monarchies saw a wave of insecurity and Iran found it an opportune time to complete the revolutionary process it could not complete after 1979. An alliance of convenience and ideology between Iran and Islamist groups had the real potential to challenge both Saudi Arabia’s own security and its leadership in the region. The disruptive threat appeared at a time when the Saudi state had already sensed an impending crisis originating from the shifts in the energy markets. Low energy prices, declining global demands, and huge investments in alternative energy resources required Saudi Arabia to rationalize its economy according to changing the global political economy. The domestic Saudi reforms remained gradual until the death of King Abdullah in 2015. What is happening now in the region, the Qatar crisis, the Lebanon crisis and the Saudi-Iranian proxy war in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen has combined three immediate objectives, rationalising Saudi economy and most importantly, the resetting the Saudi royal power for Saudi Arabia’s longest-serving future King Mohammad bin Salman. The Saudi King perhaps has no time to wait and watch the power vacuum appearing because of Iran’s expansionist foreign policy. The Saudis appear to be employing an offensive realism by advancing a pro-active regional policy to counter Iran’s threatening influence amid disappearing Western security from the region. As the Syrian civil war is coming to a compromised end with ceding much ground to Iran-controlled militias, Hezbollah and Al-Hashad, the Saudi state has lost much ground in these years and the threat from Iranian proxies is more than a reality, more clearly in Bahrain, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. This paper attempts to analyse the changing Saudi behaviour in the region, which, the author understands, is shaped by an offensive-realist approach towards finding a favourable security environment for the Saudi-led regional order, a post-rentier order perhaps.

Keywords: terrorism, Saudi Arabia, Rentier State, gulf crisis

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Authors: Teresa Rushe, Nicole Devlin, Tara O Neill

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In this study, we sought to examine associations between childhood experiences of community and collective violence and psychological functioning in young people who grew up in post-conflict Northern Ireland. We hypothesized that those who grew up with such experiences would demonstrate internalizing and externalizing difficulties in early adulthood and, furthermore, that these difficulties would be mediated by adverse childhood experiences occurring within the home environment. As part of the Northern Ireland Childhood Adversity Study, we recruited 213 young people aged 18-25 years (108 males) who grew up in the post-conflict society of Northern Ireland using purposive sampling. Participants completed a digital questionnaire to measure adverse childhood experiences as well as aspects of psychological functioning. We employed the Adverse Childhood Experience -International Questionnaire (ACE-IQ¬) adaptation of the original Adverse Childhood Experiences Questionnaire (ACE) as it additionally measured aspects of witnessing community violence (e.g., seeing someone being beaten/killed, fights) and experiences of collective violence (e.g., war, terrorism, police, or gangs’ battles exposure) during the first 18 years of life. 51% of our sample reported experiences of community and/or collective violence (N=108). Compared to young people with no such experiences (N=105), they also reported significantly more adverse experiences indicative of household dysfunction (e.g., family substance misuse, mental illness or domestic violence in the family, incarceration of a family member) but not more experiences of abuse or neglect. As expected, young people who grew up with the community and/or collective violence reported significantly higher anxiety and depression scores and were more likely to engage in acts of deliberate self-harm (internalizing symptoms). They also started drinking and taking drugs at a younger age and were significantly more likely to have been in trouble with the police (externalizing symptoms). When the type of violence exposure was separated by whether the violence was witnessed (community violence) or more directly experienced (collective violence), we found community and collective violence to have similar effects on externalizing symptoms, but for internalizing symptoms, we found evidence of a differential effect. Collective violence was associated with depressive symptoms, whereas witnessing community violence was associated with anxiety-type symptoms and deliberate self-harm. However, when experiences of household dysfunction were entered into the models predicting anxiety, depression, and deliberate self-harm, none of the main effects remained significant. This suggests internalizing type symptoms are mediated by immediate family-level experiences. By contrast, significant community and collective violence effects on externalizing behaviours: younger initiation of alcohol use, younger initiation of drug use, and getting into trouble with the police persisted after controlling for family-level factors and thus are directly associated with growing up with the community and collective violence. Given the cross-sectional nature of our study, we cannot comment on the direction of the effect. However, post-hoc correlational analyses revealed associations between externalising behaviours and personal factors, including greater risk-taking and young age at puberty. The implications of the findings will be discussed in relation to interventions for young people and families living with the community and collective violence.

Keywords: community and collective violence, adverse childhood experiences, youth, psychological wellbeing

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Authors: Mir Afzal

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Introduction: Pakistan is a country with an ever-increasing population of largely diverse ethnic, cultural, religious and sectarian divisions. Whereas diversity is seen as a strength in many societies, in Pakistan, it has become a source of conflict and more a weakness than a strength due to lack of understanding and divisions based on ethnic, cultural, political, religious, and sectarian branding. However, amid conflicts and militancy across the country, the rural, mountainous communities in the Northern Areas of Pakistan enjoy not only peace and harmony but also a continuous process of social and economic transformation supported by strong civil society institutions. These community-based institutions have organized the rural, mountainous people of diverse ethnic and religious backgrounds into village organizations, women organizations, and Local Support Organizations engaged in self-help development and peace building in the region. The Study and its Methodology: A qualitative study was conducted in one district of the Northern Pakistan to explore the contributions of the civil society institutions (CSIs) and community-based organizations to uplifting the educational and socio-economic conditions of the people with an ultimate aim of developing a thriving, peaceful and pluralistic society in this mountainous region. The study employed an eclectic set of tools, including interviews, focused group discussions, observations of CSIs’ interventions, and analysis of documents, to generate rich data on the overall role and contributions of CSIs in promoting peace and pluralism in the region. Significance of the Study: Common experiences and empirical studies reveal that such interventions by CSIs have not only contributed to the socio-economic, educational, health and cultural development of these regions but these interventions have really transformed the rural, mountainous people into organized and forward looking communities. However, how such interventions have contributed to promoting pluralism and appreciation for diversity in these regions had been an unexplored but significant area. Therefore this qualitative research study funded by the Higher Education Commission of Pakistan was carried out by the Aga Khan University Institute for Educational Development to explore the role and contributions of CSIs in promoting peace and pluralism and appreciations for diversity in one district of Northern Pakistan which is home to people of different ethnic, religious, cultural and social backgrounds. Findings and Conclusions: The study has a comprehensive list of findings and conclusions covering various aspects of CSIs and their contributions to the transformation and peaceful co-existence of rural communities in the regions. However, this paper discusses only four major contributions of CSIs, namely enhancing economic capacity, community mobilization and organization, increasing access and quality of education, and building partnerships. It also discusses the factors influencing the role of CSIs, the issues, implications, and recommendations for CSIs, policy makers, donors and development agencies, and researchers. The paper concludes that by strengthening strong networks of CSIs and community based organizations, Pakistan will not only uplift its socio-economic attainments but it will also be able to address the critical challenges of terrorism, sectarianism, and other divisions and conflicts in its various regions.

Keywords: civil society, Pakistan, peace, rural

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Authors: Zachary Blanks, Solomon Sonya

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Poaching presents a serious threat to endangered animal species, environment conservations, and human life. Additionally, some poaching activity has even been linked to supplying funds to support terrorist networks elsewhere around the world. Consequently, agencies dedicated to protecting wildlife habitats have a near intractable task of adequately patrolling an entire area (spanning several thousand kilometers) given limited resources, funds, and personnel at their disposal. Thus, agencies need predictive tools that are both high-performing and easily implementable by the user to help in learning how the significant features (e.g. animal population densities, topography, behavior patterns of the criminals within the area, etc) interact with each other in hopes of abating poaching. This research develops a classification model using machine learning algorithms to aid in forecasting future attacks that is both easy to train and performs well when compared to other models. In this research, we demonstrate how data imputation methods (specifically predictive mean matching, gradient boosting, and random forest multiple imputation) can be applied to analyze data and create significant predictions across a varied data set. Specifically, we apply these methods to improve the accuracy of adopted prediction models (Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, etc). Finally, we assess the performance of the model and the accuracy of our data imputation methods by learning on a real-world data set constituting four years of imputed data and testing on one year of non-imputed data. This paper provides three main contributions. First, we extend work done by the Teamcore and CREATE (Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events) research group at the University of Southern California (USC) working in conjunction with the Department of Homeland Security to apply game theory and machine learning algorithms to develop more efficient ways of reducing poaching. This research introduces ensemble methods (Random Forests and Stochastic Gradient Boosting) and applies it to real-world poaching data gathered from the Ugandan rain forest park rangers. Next, we consider the effect of data imputation on both the performance of various algorithms and the general accuracy of the method itself when applied to a dependent variable where a large number of observations are missing. Third, we provide an alternate approach to predict the probability of observing poaching both by season and by month. The results from this research are very promising. We conclude that by using Stochastic Gradient Boosting to predict observations for non-commercial poaching by season, we are able to produce statistically equivalent results while being orders of magnitude faster in computation time and complexity. Additionally, when predicting potential poaching incidents by individual month vice entire seasons, boosting techniques produce a mean area under the curve increase of approximately 3% relative to previous prediction schedules by entire seasons.

Keywords: ensemble methods, imputation, machine learning, random forests, statistical analysis, stochastic gradient boosting, wildlife protection

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Authors: Vishal Kumar, Soumitra Satapathi

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Föster Resonance Energy Transfer (FRET) is a powerful technique used to probe close-range molecular interactions. Physically, the FRET phenomenon manifests as a dipole–dipole interaction between closely juxtaposed fluorescent molecules (10–100 Å). Our effort is to employ this FRET technique to make a prototype device for highly sensitive detection of environment pollutant. Among the most common environmental pollutants, nitroaromatic compounds (NACs) are of particular interest because of their durability and toxicity. That’s why, sensitive and selective detection of small amounts of nitroaromatic explosives, in particular, 2,4,6-trinitrophenol (TNP), 2,4-dinitrotoluene (DNT) and 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT) has been a critical challenge due to the increasing threat of explosive-based terrorism and the need of environmental monitoring of drinking and waste water. In addition, the excessive utilization of TNP in several other areas such as burn ointment, pesticides, glass and the leather industry resulted in environmental accumulation, and is eventually contaminating the soil and aquatic systems. To the date, high number of elegant methods, including fluorimetry, gas chromatography, mass, ion-mobility and Raman spectrometry have been successfully applied for explosive detection. Among these efforts, fluorescence-quenching methods based on the mechanism of FRET show good assembly flexibility, high selectivity and sensitivity. Here, we report a FRET-based sensor system for the highly selective detection of NACs, such as TNP, DNT and TNT. The sensor system is composed of a copolymer Poly [(N,N-dimethylacrylamide)-co-(Boc-Trp-EMA)] (RP) bearing tryptophan derivative in the side chain as donor and dansyl tagged copolymer P(MMA-co-Dansyl-Ala-HEMA) (DCP) as an acceptor. Initially, the inherent fluorescence of RP copolymer is quenched by non-radiative energy transfer to DCP which only happens once the two molecules are within Förster critical distance (R0). The excellent spectral overlap (Jλ= 6.08×10¹⁴ nm⁴M⁻¹cm⁻¹) between donors’ (RP) emission profile and acceptors’ (DCP) absorption profile makes them an exciting and efficient FRET pair i.e. further confirmed by the high rate of energy transfer from RP to DCP i.e. 0.87 ns⁻¹ and lifetime measurement by time correlated single photon counting (TCSPC) to validate the 64% FRET efficiency. This FRET pair exhibited a specific fluorescence response to NACs such as DNT, TNT and TNP with 5.4, 2.3 and 0.4 µM LODs, respectively. The detection of NACs occurs with high sensitivity by photoluminescence quenching of FRET signal induced by photo-induced electron transfer (PET) from electron-rich FRET pair to electron-deficient NAC molecules. The estimated stern-volmer constant (KSV) values for DNT, TNT and TNP are 6.9 × 10³, 7.0 × 10³ and 1.6 × 104 M⁻¹, respectively. The mechanistic details of molecular interactions are established by time-resolved fluorescence, steady-state fluorescence and absorption spectroscopy confirmed that the sensing process is of mixed type, i.e. both dynamic and static quenching as lifetime of FRET system (0.73 ns) is reduced to 0.55, 0.57 and 0.61 ns DNT, TNT and TNP, respectively. In summary, the simplicity and sensitivity of this novel FRET sensor opens up the possibility of designing optical sensor of various NACs in one single platform for developing multimodal sensor for environmental monitoring and future field based study.

Keywords: FRET, nitroaromatic, stern-Volmer constant, tryptophan and dansyl tagged copolymer

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