Search results for: stochastic extreme wind load

Authors: S. C. Gupta

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The wind flow over several buildings lying in close vicinity in urban areas generates flow interference effects causing problems related to pedestrian comfort and ventilation within the buildings. This promoted a lot of research interest in the recent years. Airflow over a building creates a positive pressure zone on the upstream side and negative pressure zones (cavities or eddy zones) on the roof and all other sides. Large eddy simulation model is used along with sub-grid-scale model to numerically simulate turbulence for this purpose. The basis of flow outside the building is the pressure difference (between the wind and building interior). Wind Tunnel models are fabricated and tested in the subsonic wind tunnel. Theoretical results are compared with the experimental data. Newer configuration is tried for favorable effects in recovering static pressure values. Results obtained are seen very encouraging. The proposed exhaustive research investigation through numerical simulations and the experimental work are described and some interesting findings are brought out.

Keywords: wind flow, buildings, static pressure wind tunnel testing, CFD

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Authors: Morteza Aien, Masoud Rashidinejad, Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad

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As energetic and environmental issues are getting more and more attention all around the world, the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) mainly those harvesting renewable energies (REs) ascends with an unprecedented rate. This matter causes more uncertainties to appear in the power system context; ergo, the uncertainty analysis of the system performance is an obligation. The uncertainties of any system can be represented probabilistically or possibilistically. Since sufficient historical data about all the system variables is not available, therefore, they do not have a probability density function (PDF) and must be represented possibilistiacally. When some of system uncertain variables are probabilistic and some are possibilistic, neither the conventional pure probabilistic nor pure possibilistic methods can be implemented. Hence, a combined solution is appealed. The first of this two-paper series formulates a new possibilistic-probabilistic tool for the load flow uncertainty assessment. The proposed methodology is based on the evidence theory and joint propagation of possibilistic and probabilistic uncertainties. This possibilistic- probabilistic formulation is solved in the second companion paper in an uncertain load flow (ULF) study problem.

Keywords: probabilistic uncertainty modeling, possibilistic uncertainty modeling, uncertain load flow, wind turbine generator

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Authors: Alex Sidarta Guglielmoni

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Since the 1970s, sustainable development has become increasingly present on the international agenda. The present work has as general objective to analyze, discuss and bring answers to the following question, what is the importance of the generation of electric energy through the wind power plants in the Brazilian electricity matrix between 2013 and 2019? To answer this question, we analyzed the generation of renewable energy from wind farms and the consumption of electricity in Brazil during the period of January 2013 until December 2020. The specific objectives of this research are: to analyze the public data, to identify the total wind generation, to identify the total wind capacity generation, to identify the percentage participation of the generation and generation capacity of wind energy in the Brazilian electricity matrix. In order to develop this research, it was necessary a bibliographic search, collection of secondary data, tabulation of generation data, and electricity capacity by a comparative analysis between wind power and the Brazilian electricity matrix. As a result, it was possible to observe how important Brazil is for global sustainable development and how much this country can grow with this, in view of its capacity and potential for generating wind power since this percentage has grown in past few years.

Keywords: wind power, Brazilian market, electricity matrix, generation capacity

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Authors: Tauhidur Rahman, Dhrubajyoti Thakuria

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In this article, vibration caused by earthquake excitation, wind load and the high-speed vehicle in the superstructure has been studied. An attempt has been made to control these vibrations using passive Tuned Mass Dampers (TMD). Tuned mass damper consists of a mass, spring, and viscous damper which dissipates the vibration energy of the primary structure at the damper of the TMD. In the present paper, the concrete box girder bridge superstructure is considered and is modeled using MIDAS software. The bridge is modeled as Euler-Bernoulli beam to study the responses imposed by high-speed vehicle, earthquake excitation and wind load. In the present study, comparative study for the responses has been done considering different velocities of the train. The results obtained in this study are based on Indian standard loadings specified in Indian Railways Board (Bridge Rules). A comparative study has been done for the responses of the high-speed vehicle with and without Tuned Mass Dampers. The results indicate that there is a significant reduction in displacement and acceleration in the bridge superstructure when Tuned Mass Damper is used.

Keywords: bridge superstructure, high speed vehicle, tuned mass damper, TMD, vibration control

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Authors: Olfa Kaabia, Ilyes Abid, Khaled Guesmi

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This pioneer paper studies whether and how Bitcoin shocks are transmitted to the U.S economy. We employ a new methodology: TVP FAVAR model with stochastic volatility. We use a large dataset of 111 major U.S variables from 1959:m1 to 2016:m12. The results show that Bitcoin shocks significantly impact the U.S. economy. This significant impact is pronounced in a volatile and increasing U.S economy. The Bitcoin has a positive relationship on the U.S real activity, and a negative one on U.S prices and interest rates. Effects on the Monetary Policy exist via the inter-est rates and the Money, Credit and Finance transmission channels.

Keywords: bitcoin, US economy, FAVAR models, stochastic volatility

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Authors: Jelena Vucicevic

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Reliability analysis represents a very important task in different areas of work. In any industry, this is crucial for maintenance, efficiency, safety and monetary costs. There are ways to calculate reliability, unreliability, failure density and failure rate. In this paper, the results for the reliability of diesel generator fans were calculated through Extreme Value Theory. The Extreme Value Theory is not widely used in the engineering field. Its usage is well known in other areas such as hydrology, meteorology, finance. The significance of this theory is in the fact that unlike the other statistical methods it is focused on rare and extreme values, and not on average. It should be noted that this theory is not designed exclusively for extreme events, but for extreme values in any event. Therefore, this is a great opportunity to apply the theory and test if it could be applied in this situation. The significance of the work is the calculation of time to failure or reliability in a new way, using statistic. Another advantage of this calculation is that there is no need for technical details and it can be implemented in any part for which we need to know the time to fail in order to have appropriate maintenance, but also to maximize usage and minimize costs. In this case, calculations have been made on diesel generator fans but the same principle can be applied to any other part. The data for this paper came from a field engineering study of the time to failure of diesel generator fans. The ultimate goal was to decide whether or not to replace the working fans with a higher quality fan to prevent future failures. The results achieved in this method will show the approximation of time for which the fans will work as they should, and the percentage of probability of fans working more than certain estimated time. Extreme Value Theory can be applied not only for rare and extreme events, but for any event that has values which we can consider as extreme.

Keywords: extreme value theory, lifetime, reliability analysis, statistic, time to failure

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Authors: Waseim Ragab Azzam Ahmed Mohamed Nasr, Aalaa Ibrahim Khater

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Torsional loads from offshore wind turbines, waves, wind, earthquakes, ship collisions in the maritime environment, and electrical transmission towers might affect the pile foundations. Torsional loads can also be caused by the axial load from the sustaining structures. The paper introduces the finned pile, an alternative method of pile modification. The effects of torsional loads were investigated through a series of experimental tests aimed at improving the torsional capacity of a single pile in the sand (where sand was utilized in a state of medium density (Dr = 50%), with or without fins. In these tests, the fins' length, width, form, and number were varied to see how these attributes affected the maximum torsional capacity of the piles. We have noticed the torsion-rotation reaction. The findings demonstrated that the fins improve the maximum torsional capacity of the piles. It was demonstrated that a length of 0.6 times the embedded pile's length and a width equivalent to the pile's diameter constitute the optimal fin geometry. For the conventional pile and the finned pile, the maximum torsional capacities were determined to be 4.12 N.m. and 7.36 N.m., respectively. When subjected to torsional loads, the fins' presence enhanced the piles' maximum torsional capacity by almost 79%.

Keywords: clean sand, finned piles, model tests, torsional load

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Authors: Emejeamara Francis

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The future of potentials wind energy applications within suburban/urban areas are currently faced with various problems. These include insufficient assessment of urban wind resource, and the effectiveness of commercial gust control solutions as well as unavailability of effective and cheaper valuable tools for scoping the potentials of urban wind applications within built-up environments. In order to achieve effective assessment of the potentials of urban wind installations, an estimation of the total energy that would be available to them were effective control systems to be used, and evaluating the potential power to be generated by the wind system is required. This paper presents a methodology of predicting the power generated by a wind system operating within an urban wind resource. This method was developed by using high temporal resolution wind measurements from eight potential sites within the urban and suburban environment as inputs to a vertical axis wind turbine multiple stream tube model. A relationship between the unsteady performance coefficient obtained from the stream tube model results and turbulence intensity was demonstrated. Hence, an analytical methodology for estimating the unsteady power coefficient at a potential turbine site is proposed. This is combined with analytical models that were developed to predict the wind speed and the excess energy (EEC) available in estimating the potential power generated by wind systems at different heights within a built environment. Estimates of turbulence intensities, wind speed, EEC and turbine performance based on the current methodology allow a more complete assessment of available wind resource and potential urban wind projects. This methodology is applied to four major UK cities namely Leeds, Manchester, London and Edinburgh and the potential to map the turbine performance at different heights within a typical urban city is demonstrated.

Keywords: small-scale wind, turbine power, urban wind energy, turbulence intensity, excess energy content

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Authors: Ramazan Kadiev, Arkadi Ponossov

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Semidiscrete systems contain both continuous and discrete components. This means that the dynamics is mostly continuous, but at certain instants, it is exposed to abrupt influences. Such systems naturally appear in applications, for example, in biological and ecological models as well as in the control theory. Therefore, the study of semidiscrete systems has recently attracted the attention of many specialists. Stochastic effects are an important part of any realistic approach to modeling. For example, stochasticity arises in the population dynamics, demographic and ecological due to a change in time of factors external to the system affecting the survival of the population. In control theory, random coefficients can simulate inaccuracies in measurements. It will be shown in the presentation how to incorporate such effects into semidiscrete systems. Stability analysis is an essential part of modeling real-world problems. In the presentation, it will be explained how sufficient conditions for the moment stability of solutions in terms of the coefficients for linear semidiscrete stochastic equations can be derived using non-Lyapunov technique.

Keywords: abrupt changes, exponential stability, regularization, stochastic noises

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Authors: Belal Mohamadi Kalesar, Raouf Hasanpour

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Proper placement of Distributed Generation (DG) units such as wind turbine generators in distribution system are still very challenging issue for obtaining their maximum potential benefits because inappropriate placement may increase the system losses. This paper proposes Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) technique for optimal placement of wind based DG (WDG) in the primary distribution system to reduce energy losses and voltage profile improvement with four different wind levels modeling in year duration. Also, wind turbine is modeled as a DFIG that will be operated at unity power factor and only one wind turbine tower will be considered to install at each bus of network. Finally, proposed method will be implemented on widely used 69 bus power distribution system in MATLAB software environment under four scenario (without, one, two and three WDG units) and for capability test of implemented program it is supposed that all buses of standard system can be candidate for WDG installing (large search space), though this program can consider predetermined number of candidate location in WDG placement to model financial limitation of project. Obtained results illustrate that wind speed increasing in some months will increase output power generated but this can increase / decrease power loss in some wind level, also results show that it is required about 3MW WDG capacity to install in different buses but when this is distributed in overall network (more number of WDG) it can cause better solution from point of view of power loss and voltage profile.

Keywords: wind turbine, DG placement, wind levels effect, PSO algorithm

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Authors: Firas M. Tuaimah

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This paper presents an Artificial Neural Network based approach for short-term load forecasting and exactly for two days ahead. Two seasons have been discussed for Iraqi power system, namely summer and winter; the hourly load demand is the most important input variables for ANN based load forecasting. The recorded daily load profile with a lead time of 1-48 hours for July and December of the year 2012 was obtained from the operation and control center that belongs to the Ministry of Iraqi electricity. The results of the comparison show that the neural network gives a good prediction for the load forecasting and for two days ahead.

Keywords: short-term load forecasting, artificial neural networks, back propagation learning, hourly load demand

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Authors: Emmanuel Iyamuremye

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Extreme rainfall events have caused significant damage to agriculture, ecology, and infrastructure, disruption of human activities, injury, and loss of life. They also have significant social, economic, and environmental consequences because they considerably damage urban as well as rural areas. Early detection of extreme maximum rainfall helps to implement strategies and measures, before they occur, hence mitigating the consequences. Extreme value theory has been used widely in modeling extreme rainfall and in various disciplines, such as financial markets, the insurance industry, failure cases. Climatic extremes have been analyzed by using either generalized extreme value (GEV) or generalized Pareto (GP) distributions, which provides evidence of the importance of modeling extreme rainfall from different regions of the world. In this paper, we focused on Peak Over Thresholds approach, where the Poisson-generalized Pareto distribution is considered as the proper distribution for the study of the exceedances. This research also considers the use of the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution with a Poisson model for arrivals to describe peaks over a threshold. The research used statistical techniques to fit models that used to predict extreme rainfall in Kigali. The results indicate that the proposed Poisson-GP distribution provides a better fit to maximum monthly rainfall data. Further, the Poisson-GP models are able to estimate various return levels. The research also found a slow increase in return levels for maximum monthly rainfall for higher return periods, and further, the intervals are increasingly wider as the return period is increasing.

Keywords: exceedances, extreme value theory, generalized Pareto distribution, Poisson generalized Pareto distribution

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Authors: Rana M. Mostafa, Nouby M. Ghazaly, Ahmed S. Ali

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This article introduces a solution for increasing the wind energy extracted from turbines to overcome the more electric power required. This objective provides a new science discipline; wind turbine control. This field depends on the development in power electronics to provide new control strategies for turbines. Those strategies should deal with all turbine operating modes. Here there are two control strategies developed for variable speed horizontal axis wind turbine for rated and over rated wind speed regions. These strategies will support wind energy validation, decrease manufacturing overhead cost. Here nonlinear adaptive method was used to design speed controllers to a scheme for ‘Aeolos50 kw’ wind turbine connected to permanent magnet generator via a gear box which was built on MATLAB/Simulink. These controllers apply maximum power point tracking concept to guarantee goal achievement. Procedures were carried to test both controllers efficiency. The results had been shown that the developed controllers are acceptable and this can be easily declared from simulation results.

Keywords: adaptive method, pitch controller, wind energy, nonlinear control

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Authors: Feng Guolin, Gong Zhiqiang

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In order to study the spatial structure and dynamical mechanism of extreme precipitation in East Asia, a corresponding climate network is constructed by employing the method of event synchronization. It is found that the area of East Asian summer extreme precipitation can be separated into two regions: one with high area weighted connectivity receiving heavy precipitation mostly during the active phase of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), and another one with low area weighted connectivity receiving heavy precipitation during both the active and the retreat phase of the EASM. Besides，a way for the prediction of extreme precipitation is also developed by constructing a directed climate networks. The simulation accuracy in East Asia is 58% with a 0-day lead, and the prediction accuracy is 21% and average 12% with a 1-day and an n-day (2≤n≤10) lead, respectively. Compare to the normal EASM year, the prediction accuracy is lower in a weak year and higher in a strong year, which is relevant to the differences in correlations and extreme precipitation rates in different EASM situations. Recognizing and identifying these effects is good for understanding and predicting extreme precipitation in East Asia.

Keywords: synchronization, climate network, prediction, rainfall

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Authors: Mohammad A. Masoumi, Mohammad Zare, Soroush Sabouki

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This study investigates the aerodynamic characteristics of supertall buildings to evaluate wind turbine installation at high altitudes. Most recent studies have investigated supertall buildings at a horizontal plane, while a vertical plan could be as important, especially to install wind turbines. A typical square-plan building with a height of 500 m is investigated numerically at horizontal and vertical plans to evaluate wind power generation potentials. The results show good agreement with experimental data and past studies. Then four new geometries are proposed to improvise regions at high altitudes to install wind turbines. Evaluating the simulations shows two regions with high power density, which have the possibility to install wind turbines. Results show that improvised regions to install wind turbines at high altitudes contain significant power density while higher power density is found behind buildings in a far distance. In addition, power density fluctuations behind buildings are investigated, which show decreasing fluctuations by reaching 50 m altitude while altitudes lower than 20 m have the most fluctuations.

Keywords: wind power, supertall building, power density, aerodynamic characteristics, wind turbine mobile, quality assurance, testing, applications

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Authors: Christos Bouras, Eirini Stergiou, Charitini Karakostaki, Vasileios Tzanos, Vasileios Kokkinos

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Wind power represents a major pathway to curtailing greenhouse gas emissions and thus reducing the rate of climate change. A wind turbine runs practically emission-free for 20 years, representing one of the most environmentally sustainable sources of energy. Nevertheless, environmental and biodiversity concerns can often slow down or halt the deployment of wind farms due to local public opposition. This opposition is often fueled by poor relationships between wind energy stakeholders and civil society, which in many cases led to conflictual protests and property damage. In this context, addressing these concerns is essential in order to facilitate the proliferation of wind farms in Europe and the phase-out of fossil fuels from the energy mix. The aim of this study is to identify a number of good practices and cases to avoid increasing biodiversity protection at all stages of wind farms’ lifecycle in three participating countries, namely Greece, Latvia, and Poland. The results indicate that although available technological solutions are already being exploited worldwide, in these countries, there is still room for improvement. To address this gap, a set of policy recommendations is proposed to accomplish the wind energy targets in the near future while simultaneously mitigating the pertinent biodiversity risks.

Keywords: biodiversity protection, environmental impact, social acceptance, wind energy

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Authors: A. Moualdia, D. J. Boudana, O. Bouchhida, A. Medjber

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Wind energy has many advantages, it does not pollute and it is an inexhaustible source. However, the cost of this energy is still too high to compete with traditional fossil fuels, especially on sites less windy. The performance of a wind turbine depends on three parameters: the power of wind, the power curve of the turbine and the generator's ability to respond to wind fluctuations. This paper presents a control chain conversion based on a double-fed asynchronous machine and flow-oriented. The supply system comprises of two identical converters, one connected to the rotor and the other one connected to the network via a filter. The architecture of the device is up by three commands are necessary for the operation of the turbine control extraction of maximum power of the wind to control itself (MPPT) control of the rotor side converter controlling the electromagnetic torque and stator reactive power and control of the grid side converter by controlling the DC bus voltage and active power and reactive power exchanged with the network. The proposed control has been validated in both modes of operation of the three-bladed wind 7.5 kW, using Matlab/Simulink. The results of simulation control technology study provide good dynamic performance and static.

Keywords: D.F.I.G, variable wind speed, hypersynchrone, energy quality, hyposynchrone

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Authors: Yutae Lee

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In this paper, we consider the performance and availability of a redundancy model. The redundancy model is a form of resilience that ensures service availability in the event of component failure. This paper considers a 2N redundancy model. In the model there are at most one active service unit and at most one standby service unit. The active one is providing the service while the standby is prepared to take over the active role when the active fails. We design our analysis model using Stochastic Reward Nets, and then evaluate the performance and availability of 2N redundancy model using Stochastic Petri Net Package (SPNP).

Keywords: availability, performance, stochastic reward net, 2N redundancy

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Authors: Ahmed. A. Hossam Eldin, Karim H. Youssef, Kareem M. AboRas

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Recent current rapid industrial development and energy shortage are essential problems, which face most of the developing countries. Moreover, increased prices of fossil fuel and advanced energy conversion technology lead to the need for renewable energy resources. A study, modelling and simulation of an outdoor micro scale stand alone wind turbine was carried out. For model validation an experimental study was applied. In this research the aim was to clarify effects of real outdoor operating conditions and the instantaneous fluctuations of both wind direction and wind speed on the actual produced power. The results were compared with manufacturer’s data. The experiments were carried out in Borg Al-Arab, Alexandria. This location is on the north Western Coast of Alexandria. The results showed a real max output power for outdoor micro scale wind turbine, which is different from manufacturer’s value. This is due to the fact that the direction of wind speed is not the same as that of the manufacturer’s data. The measured wind speed and direction by the portable metrological weather station anemometer varied with time. The blade tail response could not change the blade direction at the same instant of the wind direction variation. Therefore, designers and users of micro scale wind turbine stand alone system cannot rely on the maker’s name plate data to reach the required power.

Keywords: micro-turbine, wind turbine, inverters, renewable energy, hybrid system

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Authors: Javad Taherahmadi, Mohammad Jafarian, Mohammad Naser Asefi

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The global capacity of wind power has dramatically increased in recent years. Therefore, improving the technology of wind turbines to take different advantages of this enormous potential in the power grid, could be interesting subject for scientists. The doubly-fed induction generator (DFIG) wind turbine is a popular system due to its many advantages such as the improved power quality, high energy efficiency and controllability, etc. With an increase in wind power penetration in the network and with regard to the flexible control of wind turbines, the use of wind turbine systems to improve the dynamic stability of power systems has been of significance importance for researchers. Subsynchronous oscillations are one of the important issues in the stability of power systems. Damping subsynchronous oscillations by using wind turbines has been studied in various research efforts, mainly by adding an auxiliary control loop to the control structure of the wind turbine. In most of the studies, this control loop is composed of linear blocks. In this paper, simple adaptive control is used for this purpose. In order to use an adaptive controller, the convergence of the controller should be verified. Since adaptive control parameters tend to optimum values in order to obtain optimum control performance, using this controller will help the wind turbines to have positive contribution in damping the network subsynchronous oscillations at different wind speeds and system operating points. In this paper, the application of simple adaptive control in DFIG wind turbine systems to improve the dynamic stability of power systems is studied and the essential condition for using this controller is considered. It is also shown that this controller has an insignificant effect on the dynamic stability of the wind turbine, itself.

Keywords: almost strictly positive real (ASPR), doubly-fed induction generator (DIFG), simple adaptive control (SAC), subsynchronous oscillations, wind turbine

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Authors: Homa Ghave, Parmis Shahmaleki

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This paper presents a new multi-criteria stochastic mathematical model for a single machine scheduling with outsourcing allowed. There are multiple jobs processing in batch. For each batch, all of job or a quantity of it can be outsourced. The jobs have stochastic processing time and lead time and deterministic due dates arrive randomly. Because of the stochastic inherent of processing time and lead time, we use the chance constrained programming for modeling the problem. First, the problem is formulated in form of stochastic programming and then prepared in a form of deterministic mixed integer linear programming. The objectives are considered in the model to minimize the maximum tardiness and outsourcing cost simultaneously. Several procedures have been developed to deal with the multi-criteria problem. In this paper, we utilize the concept of satisfaction functions to increases the manager’s preference. The proposed approach is tested on instances where the random variables are normally distributed.

Keywords: single machine scheduling, multi-criteria mathematical model, outsourcing strategy, uncertain lead times and processing times, chance constrained programming, satisfaction function

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Authors: Sandra Rafael, Bruno Vicente, Vera Rodrigues, Carlos Borrego, Myriam Lopes

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Air pollution is an environmental and social issue at different spatial scales, especially in a climate change context, with an expected decrease of air quality. Air pollution is a combination of high emissions and unfavourable weather conditions, where wind speed and wind direction play a key role. The urban design (location and structure of buildings and trees) can both promote the air pollutants dispersion as well as promote their retention within the urban area. Today, most of the urban areas are applying measures to adapt to future extreme climatic events. Most of these measures are grounded on nature-based solutions, namely green roofs and green areas. In this sense, studies are required to evaluate how the implementation of these actions will influence the wind flow within the urban area and, consequently, how this will influence air pollutants' dispersion. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the influence of a set of urban morphologies in the wind conditions and in the dispersion of air pollutants, in a built-up area in Portugal. For that, two pollutants were analysed (NOx and PM10) and four scenarios were developed: i) a baseline scenario, which characterizes the current status of the study area, ii) an urban green scenario, which implies the implementation of a green area inside the domain, iii) a green roof scenario, which consists in the implementation of green roofs in a specific area of the domain; iv) a 'grey' scenario, which consists in a scenario with absence of vegetation. For that, two models were used, namely the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and the CFD model VADIS (pollutant dispersion in the atmosphere under variable wind conditions). The WRF model was used to initialize the CFD model, while the last was used to perform the set of numerical simulations, on an hourly basis. The implementation of the green urban area promoted a reduction of air pollutants' concentrations, 16% on average, related to the increase in the wind flow, which promotes air pollutants dispersion; while the application of green roofs showed an increase of concentrations (reaching 60% during specific time periods). Overall the results showed that a strategic placement of vegetation in cities has the potential to make an important contribution to increase air pollutants dispersion and so promote the improvement of air quality and sustainability of urban environments.

Keywords: air pollutants dispersion, wind conditions, urban morphologies, road traffic emissions

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Authors: Hassan Manouzi, Taous-Meriem Laleg-Kirati

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In this paper we study mathematically the eigenvalue problem for stochastic elliptic partial differential equation of Wick type. Using the Wick-product and the Wiener-Ito chaos expansion, the stochastic eigenvalue problem is reformulated as a system of an eigenvalue problem for a deterministic partial differential equation and elliptic partial differential equations by using the Fredholm alternative. To reduce the computational complexity of this system, we shall use a decomposition-coordination method. Once this approximation is performed, the statistics of the numerical solution can be easily evaluated.

Keywords: eigenvalue problem, Wick product, SPDEs, finite element, Wiener-Ito chaos expansion

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Authors: V. Churkin, M. Lopatin

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The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second –95,3%.

Keywords: bass model, generalized bass model, replacement purchases, sales forecasting of innovations, statistics of sales of small wind turbines in the United States

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Authors: Faruk Elaldi

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There are lots of concrete columns and beams around in our living cities. Those columns are mostly open to aggressive environmental conditions and earthquakes. Mostly, they are deteriorated by sand, wind, humidity and other external applications at times. After a while, these beams and columns need to be repaired. Within the scope of this study, for reinforcement of concrete columns, samples were designed and fabricated to be strengthened with carbon fiber reinforced composite materials and conventional concrete encapsulation and followed by, and they were put into the axial compression test to determine load-carrying performance before column failure. In the first stage of this study, concrete column design and mold designs were completed for a certain load-carrying capacity. Later, the columns were exposed to environmental deterioration in order to reduce load-carrying capacity. To reinforce these damaged columns, two methods were applied, “concrete encapsulation” and the other one “wrapping with carbon fiber /epoxy” material. In the second stage of the study, the reinforced columns were applied to the axial compression test and the results obtained were analyzed. Cost and load-carrying performance comparisons were made and it was found that even though the carbon fiber/epoxy reinforced method is more expensive, this method enhances higher load-carrying capacity and reduces the reinforcement processing period.

Keywords: column reinforcement, composite, earth quake, carbon fiber reinforced

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Authors: Joselito Medina-Marin, Maria G. Serna-Diaz, Juan C. Seck-Tuoh-Mora, Norberto Hernandez-Romero, Irving Barragán-Vite

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Wind speed forecasting is an important issue for planning wind power generation facilities. The accuracy in the wind speed prediction allows a good performance of wind turbines for electricity generation. A model based on artificial neural networks is presented in this work. A dataset with atmospheric information about air temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind direction, and wind speed in Pachuca, Hidalgo, México, was used to train the artificial neural network. The data was downloaded from the web page of the National Meteorological Service of the Mexican government. The records were gathered for three months, with time intervals of ten minutes. This dataset was used to develop an iterative algorithm to create 1,110 ANNs, with different configurations, starting from one to three hidden layers and every hidden layer with a number of neurons from 1 to 10. Each ANN was trained with the Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithm, which is used to learn the relationship between input and output values. The model with the best performance contains three hidden layers and 9, 6, and 5 neurons, respectively; and the coefficient of determination obtained was r²=0.9414, and the Root Mean Squared Error is 1.0559. In summary, the ANN approach is suitable to predict the wind speed in Pachuca City because the r² value denotes a good fitting of gathered records, and the obtained ANN model can be used in the planning of wind power generation grids.

Keywords: wind power generation, artificial neural networks, wind speed, coefficient of determination

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Authors: Ying-chang Yu, Yuan-lung Lo

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More and more building envelopes consist of the construction of balconies, canopies, handrails, sun-shading, vertical planters or gardens, maintenance platforms, display devices, lightings, ornaments, and also the most commonly seen double skin system. These components form a uniform but three-dimensional disturbance structure and create a complex surface wind field in front of the actual watertight building interface. The distorted wind behavior would affect the façade performance and building ventilation. Comparing with sole windscreen walls, these three-dimensional structures perform like distributed air portal assembly, and each portal generates air turbulence and consume wind pressure and energy simultaneously. In this study, we attempted to compare the behavior of 2D porous windscreens without internal construction, porous tubular portal windscreens, porous tapered portal windscreens, and porous coned portal windscreens. The wind energy reduction phenomenon is then compared to the different distributed air portals. The experiments are conducted in a physical wind tunnel with 1:25 in scale to simulate the three-dimensional structure of a real building envelope. The experimental airflow was set up to smooth flow. The specimen is designed as a plane with a distributed tubular structure behind, and the control group uses different tubular shapes but the same fluid volume to observe the wind damping phenomenon of various geometries.

Keywords: volumized building envelope, porous air portal, wind damping, wind tunnel test, wind energy loss

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Authors: M. N. Tandjaoui, C. Banoudjafar, C. Benachaiba, O. Abdelkhalek, A. Kechich

Abstract:

Advanced power electronic systems are deemed to be an integral part of renewable, green, and efficient energy systems. Wind energy is one of the renewable means of electricity generation that is now the world’s fastest growing energy source can bring new challenges when it is connected to the power grid due to the fluctuation nature of the wind and the comparatively new types of its generators. The wind energy is part of the worldwide discussion on the future of energy generation and use and consequent effects on the environment. However, this paper will introduce some of the requirements and aspects of the power electronic involved with modern wind generation systems, including modern power electronics and converters, and the issues of integrating wind turbines into power systems.

Keywords: power electronics, renewable energy, smart grid, green energy, power technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 618

Authors: Daniel Icaza, Federico Córdova, Chiristian Castro, Fernando Icaza, Juan Portoviejo

Abstract:

In this article, the mathematical model is presented, and simulations were carried out using specialized software such as MATLAB before the construction of a 900-W wind turbine. The present study was conducted with the intention of taking advantage of the rotation of the blades of the wind generator after going through a process of amplification of speed by means of a system of gears to finally mechanically couple two electric generators of similar characteristics. This coupling allows generating a maximum voltage of 6 V in DC for each generator and putting in series the 12 V DC is achieved, which is later stored in batteries and used when the user requires it. Laboratory tests were made to verify the level of power generation produced based on the wind speed at the entrance of the blades.

Keywords: smart grids, wind turbine, modeling, renewable energy, robust control

Procedia PDF Downloads 202

Authors: Raphael Naryongo, Philip Ngare, Anthony Waititu

Abstract:

This paper deals with numerical simulation of Wishart processes for a single asset risky pricing model whose volatility is described by Wishart affine diffusion processes. The multi-factor specification of volatility will make the model more flexible enough to fit the stock market data for short or long maturities for better returns. The Wishart process is a stochastic process which is a positive semi-definite matrix-valued generalization of the square root process. The aim of the study is to model the log asset stock returns under the double Wishart stochastic volatility model. The solution of the log-asset return dynamics for Bi-Wishart processes will be obtained through Euler-Maruyama discretization schemes. The numerical results on the asset returns are compared to the existing models returns such as Heston stochastic volatility model and double Heston stochastic volatility model

Keywords: euler schemes, log-asset return, infinitesimal generator, wishart diffusion affine processes

Procedia PDF Downloads 337