Search results for: soot

Authors: Nazneen, Aditya Kumar Patra

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The aim of this study was to investigate the personal exposures of toll plaza workers on a busy national highway in India during the winter season to PM₂.₅, PM₁₀, BC (black carbon), and UFP (ultrafine particles). The results showed that toll workers inside the toll collection booths (ITC) were exposed to higher concentrations of air pollutants than those working outside the booths (OTC), except for UFP. Specifically, the concentrations of PM₂.₅ were 20₄.₇ µg m⁻³ (ITC) and 100.4 µg m⁻³ (OTC), while PM₁₀ concentrations were 326.1 µg m⁻³ (ITC) and 24₄.₇ µg m⁻³ (OTC), and BC concentrations were 30.7 µg m⁻³ (ITC) and 17.2 µg m⁻³ (OTC). In contrast, UFP concentrations were higher at OTC (11312.8 pt cm⁻³) than at IOC (7431.6 pt cm⁻³). The diurnal variation of pollutants showed higher concentrations in the evening due to increased traffic and less atmospheric dispersion. The respiratory deposition dose (RDD) of pollutants was higher inside the toll booths, especially during the evening. The study also revealed that PM particles consisted of soot, mineral and fly ash, which are proxies of fresh exhaust emissions, re-suspended road dust, and industrial emissions, respectively. The presence of Si, Al, Ca and Pb, as confirmed by EDX (Energy Dispersive X-ray analysis) analyses, indicated the sources of pollutants to be re-suspended road dust, brake/tire wear, and construction dust. The findings emphasize the need for policies to regulate air pollutant concentrations, particularly in workplaces situated near busy roads.

Keywords: air pollution, PM₂.₅, black carbon, traffic emissions

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Authors: Asadollah Bahrami

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In the present study, spectral radiative entropy generation is analyzed in a furnace filled with a mixture of H₂O, CO₂ and soot at radiative equilibrium. For the angular and spatial discretization of the radiative transfer equation and radiative entropy generation equations, the discrete ordinates method and the finite volume method are used, respectively. Spectral radiative properties are obtained using the correlated-k (CK) non-gray model with updated parameters based on the HITEMP2010 high-resolution database. In order to evaluate the effects of the location of the heat source, boundary condition and wall emissivity on radiative entropy generation, five cases are considered with different conditions. The spectral and total radiative entropy generation in the system are calculated for all cases and the effects of mentioned parameters on radiative entropy generation are attentively analyzed and finally, the optimum condition is especially presented. The most important results can be stated as follows: Results demonstrate that the wall emissivity has a considerable effect on the radiative entropy generation. Also, irreversible radiative transfer at the wall with lower temperatures is the main source of radiative entropy generation in the furnaces. In addition, the effect of the location of the heat source on total radiative entropy generation is less than other factors. Eventually, it can be said that characterizing the effective parameters of radiative entropy generation provides an approach to minimizing the radiative entropy generation and enhancing the furnace's performance practicality.

Keywords: spectral radiative entropy generation, non-gray medium, correlated k(CK) model, heat source

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Authors: Sabir Hussain, Mujtaba Hassan, Kashif Rasool, Asif Shahzad

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Fine particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) was collected in Islamabad from November 2022 to January 2023, at urban sites. The average mass concentrations of PM2.5 varied, ranging from 90.5 to 133 μg m−3 in urban areas. Environmental scanning electron microscopy (ESEM) analysis revealed that Islamabad's PM2.5 comprised soot aggregates, ashes, minerals, bio-particles, and unidentified particles. Results from inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES) indicated a gradual increase in total elemental concentrations in Islamabad PM2.5 in winter, with relatively high levels in December. Significantly different elemental compositions were observed in urban PM2.5. Enrichment factor (EF) analysis suggested that elements such as K, Na, Ca, Mg, Al, Fe, Ba, and Sr were of natural origin, while As, Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd, Mn, Ni, and Se originated from anthropogenic sources. Plasmid DNA assays demonstrated varying levels of potential toxicity in Islamabad PM2.5 collected from urban sites, as well as across different seasons. Notably, the urban winter PM2.5 sample exhibited much stronger toxicity compared to other samples. The presence of heavy metals in Islamabad PM2.5, including Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd, Cr, Mn, and Ni, may have synergistic effects on human health.

Keywords: islamabad particulate matter pm2.5, scanning electron microscopy with energy-dispersive x-ray spectroscopy(sem-eds), fourier transform infrared spectroscopy(ftir), inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy(icp-oes)

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Authors: Qiao Yushuang, Shao Longyi

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This paper presents the result of plasmid assay of inhalable particulates PM10 and PM2.5 that were collected during the period of the 11th Hanyuan temple fair of ancestor worship in Kaifeng City. By use of a high-resolution Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopy (FESEM) and image analysis (IA) technology, the morphological characteristics and Particle Size Distribution (PSD) of each were analyzed and the Bioreactivity of PM10 was evaluated by using plasmid DNA assay. The result shows that, as the dominant component of the samples taken in the urban area of Kaifeng City, the mineral particles, compared with the other components including the soot aggregates, coal ash, and unidentified particles, have a much greater amount and volume. The mineral particles exhibited a decentralized quantity - size distribution, whose presence could be available among the particles sizing 2.5μm or smaller. In contrast, the volume-size distribution of mineral particles is scattered in a relatively narrow range of between1μm and 2.5μm. According to the plasmid assay the TD50 (toxic dose of PM causing 50% of plasmid damage, expressed in μg/ml) of water-soluble PM10 and whole fraction of Kaifeng airborne PM10 was measured respectively at 220-208μg/ml and 300-400μg/ml versus 160μg/ml and 190μg/ml for PM2.5. It can be seen that the whole fraction of airborne particles caused more oxidative damage than the water-soluble fractions, and the PM2.5 has a greater oxidative capacity than the PM10.

Keywords: inhalable particulates (PM10 and PM2.5), morphological features, bioreactivity, Kaifeng

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Authors: Tsetsegmaa A., Bayarsuren B., Altantsetseg Ts.

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To make the best decision on reducing harmful emissions from buses, we need to have a clear understanding of the current state of their actual emissions. The emissions from city buses running on high sulfur fuel, particularly particulate matter (PM) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) from the exhaust gases of conventional diesel engines, have been studied and measured with and without diesel particulate filter (DPF) in Ulaanbaatar city. The study was conducted by using the PEMS (Portable Emissions Measurement System) and gravimetric method in real traffic conditions. The obtained data were used to determine the actual emission rates and to evaluate the effectiveness of the selected particulate filters. Actual road and daily PM emissions from city buses were determined during the warm and cold seasons. A bus with an average daily mileage of 242 km was found to emit 166.155 g of PM into the city's atmosphere on average per day, with 141.3 g in summer and 175.8 g in winter. The actual PM of the city bus is 0.6866 g/km. The concentration of NOx in the exhaust gas averages 1410.94 ppm. The use of DPF reduced the exhaust gas opacity of 24 buses by an average of 97% and filtered a total of 340.4 kg of soot from these buses over a period of six months. Retrofitting an old conventional diesel engine with cassette-type silicon carbide (SiC) DPF, despite the laboriousness of cleaning, can significantly reduce particulate matter emissions. Innovation: First comprehensive road PM and NOx emission dataset and actual road emissions from public buses have been identified. PM and NOx mathematical model equations have been estimated as a function of the bus technical speed and engine revolution with and without DPF.

Keywords: conventional diesel, silicon carbide, real-time onboard measurements, particulate matter, diesel retrofit, fuel sulphur

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Authors: Jitendra Sharma

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Here a Homogeneous Charge is used as in a spark-ignited engine, but the charge is compressed to auto ignition as in a diesel. The main difference compared with the Spark Ignition (SI) engine is the lack of flame propagation and hence the independence from turbulence. Compared with the diesel engine. HCCI has a homogeneous charge and have no problems associated with soot and Nox but HC and CO were higher than in SI mode. It was not possible to achieve high IMEP (Indicated Mean Effective Pressure) values with HCCI. The Homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) is an attractive technology because of its high efficiency and low emissions. However, HCCI lakes a direct combustion trigger making control of combustion timing challenging, especially during transients. To aid in HCCI engine control we present a simple model of the HCCI combustion process valid over a range of intake pressures, intake temperatures, equivalence ratios and engine speeds. HCCI a new combustion technology that may develop as an alternative to diesel engines with high efficiency and low Knox and particulate matter emissions. The homogenous charge compression ignition (HCCI) is a promising new engine technology that combines elements of the diesel and gasoline engine operating cycles. HCCI as a way to increase the efficiency of the gasoline engine. The attractive properties are increased fuel efficiency due to reduced throttling losses, increased expansion ratio and higher thermodynamic efficiency. With the advantages there are some mechanical limitations to the operation of the HCCI engine. The implementation of homogenous charge compression ignition (HCCI) to gasoline engines is constrained by many factors. The main drawback of HCCI is the absence of direct combustion timing control. Therefore all the right conditions for auto ignition have to be set before combustion starts. This paper describes the past and current research done on HCCI engine. Many research got considerable success in doing detailed modeling of HCCI combustion. This paper aims at studying the fundamentals of HCCI combustion, the strategy to control the limitation of HCCI engine.

Keywords: HCCI, diesel engine, combustion, elementary investigation

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Authors: Abderahim Ahmadou, Alfredo Napoli, Noel Durand, Didier Montet

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Biochar is a microporous and adsorbent solid carbon product obtained from the pyrolysis of various organic materials (biomass, agricultural waste). Biochar is distinguished from vegetable charcoal by its manufacture methods. Biochar is used as the amendment in soils to give them favorable characteristics under certain conditions, i.e., absorption of water and its release at low speed. Cashew nuts shell from Mali is usually discarded on land by local processors or burnt as a mean for waste management. The burning of this biomass poses serious socio-environmental problems including greenhouse gas emission and accumulation of tars and soot on houses closed to factories, leading to neighbor complaints. Some mycotoxins as aflatoxins are carcinogenic compounds resulting from the secondary metabolism of molds that develop on plants in the field and during their conservation. They are found at high level on some seeds and nuts in Africa. Ochratoxin A, member of mycotoxins, is produced by various species of Aspergillus and Penicillium. Human exposure to Ochratoxin A can occur through consumption of contaminated food products, particularly contaminated grain, as well as coffee, wine grapes. We showed that cashew shell biochars produced at 400, 600 and 800°C adsorbed aflatoxins (B1, B2, G1, G2) at 100% by filtration (rapid contact) as well as by stirring (long contact). The average percentage of adsorption of Ochratoxin A was 35% by filtration and 80% by stirring. The duration of the biochar-mycotoxin contact was a significant parameter. The effect of biochar was also tested on two strains of toxigenic molds: Aspergillus parasiticus (producers of Aflatoxins) and Aspergillus carbonarius (producers of Ochratoxins). The growth of the strain Aspergillus carbonarius was inhibited at up to 60% by the biochar at 600°C. An opposite effect to the inhibition was observed on Aspergillus parasiticus using the same biochar. In conclusion, we observed that biochar adsorbs mycotoxins: Aflatoxins and Ochratoxin A to different degrees; 100% adsorption of aflatoxins under all conditions (filtration and stirring) and adsorption of Ochratoxin A varied depending on the type of biochar and the experiment conditions (35% by filtration and 85% by stirring). The effects of biochar at 600 °C on the toxigenic molds: Aspergillus parasiticus and Aspergillus carbonarius, varied according to the experimental conditions and the strains. We observed an opposite effect on the growth with an inhibition of Aspergillus carbonarius up to 60% and a stimulated growth of Aspergillus parasiticus.

Keywords: biochar, cashew nut shell, mycotoxins, toxicogenic molds

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Authors: Johannes Mertl

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Our surrounding air contains various particles. Besides typical representatives of inorganic dust, such as soot and ash, also particles originating from animals, microorganisms or plants are floating through the air, so-called bioaerosols. The group of bioaerosols consists of a broad spectrum of particles of different size, including fungi, bacteria, viruses, spores, or tree, flower and grass pollen that are of high relevance for allergy sufferers. In dependence of the environmental climate and the actual season, these allergenic particles can be found in enormous numbers in the air and are inhaled by humans via the respiration tract, with a potential for inflammatory diseases of the airways, such as asthma or allergic rhinitis. As a consequence air filter systems of ventilation and air conditioning devices are required to meet very high standards to prevent, or at least lower the number of allergens and airborne germs entering the indoor air. Still, filter systems are merely classified for their separation rates using well-defined mineral test dust, while no appropriate sufficiently standardized test methods for bioaerosols exist. However, determined separation rates for mineral test particles of a certain size cannot simply be transferred to bioaerosols, as separation efficiency of particularly fine and respirable particles (< 10 microns) is dependent not only on their shape and particle diameter, but also defined by their density and physicochemical properties. For this reason, the OFI developed a test method, which directly enables a testing of filters and filter media for their separation rates on bioaerosols, as well as a classification of filters. Besides allergens from an intact or fractured tree or grass pollen, allergenic proteins bound to particulates, as well as allergenic fungal spores (e.g. Cladosporium cladosporioides), or bacteria can be used to classify filters regarding their separation rates. Allergens passing through the filter can then be detected by highly sensitive immunological assays (ELISA) or in the case of fungal spores by microbiological methods, which allow for the detection of even one single spore passing the filter. The test procedure, which is carried out in laboratory scale, was furthermore validated regarding its sufficiency to cover real life situations by upscaling using air conditioning devices showing great conformity in terms of separation rates. Additionally, a clinical study with allergy sufferers was performed to verify analytical results. Several different air conditioning filters from the car industry have been tested, showing significant differences in their separation rates.

Keywords: airborne germs, allergens, classification of filters, fine dust

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Authors: Gabriel Fernando Talero Rojas, Vladimir Silva Leal, Camilo Bayona-Roa, Juan Pava, Mauricio Lopez Gomez

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The substitution of conventional aviation fuels with biomass-derived alternative fuels is an emerging field of study in the aviation transport, mainly due to its energy consumption, the contribution to the global Greenhouse Gas - GHG emissions and the fossil fuel price fluctuations. Nevertheless, several challenges remain as the biofuel production cost and its degradative effect over the fuel systems that alter the operating safety. Moreover, experimentation on full-scale aeronautic turbines are expensive and complex, leading to most of the research to the testing of small-size turbojets with a major absence of information regarding the effects in the energy performance and the emissions. The main purpose of the current study is to present the results of experimentation in a full-scale military turbojet engine J69-T-25A (presented in Fig. 1) with 640 kW of power rating and using blends of Jet A1 with oil palm biodiesel. The main findings are related to the thrust specific fuel consumption – TSFC, the engine global efficiency – η, the air/fuel ratio – AFR and the volume fractions of O2, CO2, CO, and HC. Two fuels are used in the present study: a commercial Jet A1 and a Colombian palm oil biodiesel. The experimental plan is conducted using the biodiesel volume contents - w_BD from 0 % (B0) to 50 % (B50). The engine operating regimes are set to Idle, Cruise, and Take-off conditions. The turbojet engine J69 is used by the Colombian Air Force and it is installed in a testing bench with the instrumentation that corresponds to the technical manual of the engine. The increment of w_BD from 0 % to 50 % reduces the η near 3,3 % and the thrust force in a 26,6 % at Idle regime. These variations are related to the reduction of the 〖HHV〗_ad of the fuel blend. The evolved CO and HC tend to be reduced in all the operating conditions when increasing w_BD. Furthermore, a reduction of the atomization angle is presented in Fig. 2, indicating a poor atomization in the fuel nozzle injectors when using a higher biodiesel content as the viscosity of fuel blend increases. An evolution of cloudiness is also observed during the shutdown procedure as presented in Fig. 3a, particularly after 20 % of biodiesel content in the fuel blend. This promotes the contamination of some components of the combustion chamber of the J69 engine with soot and unburned matter (Fig. 3). Thus, the substitution of biodiesel content above 20 % is not recommended in order to avoid a significant decrease of η and the thrust force. A more detail examination of the mechanical wearing of the main components of the engine is advised in further studies.

Keywords: aviation, air to fuel ratio, biodiesel, energy performance, fuel atomization, gas turbine

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Authors: Saurabh Sharma, Yong Sun, Bruce Vernham

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Accurate prediction of NOx emission is a continuous challenge in the field of diesel engine-out emission modeling. Performing experiments for each conditions and scenario cost significant amount of money and man hours, therefore model-based development strategy has been implemented in order to solve that issue. NOx formation is highly dependent on the burn gas temperature and the O₂ concentration inside the cylinder. The current empirical models are developed by calibrating the parameters representing the engine operating conditions with respect to the measured NOx. This makes the prediction of purely empirical models limited to the region where it has been calibrated. An alternative solution to that is presented in this paper, which focus on the utilization of in-cylinder combustion parameters to form a predictive semi-empirical NOx model. The result of this work is shown by developing a fast and predictive NOx model by using the physical parameters and empirical correlation. The model is developed based on the steady state data collected at entire operating region of the engine and the predictive combustion model, which is developed in Gamma Technology (GT)-Power by using Direct Injected (DI)-Pulse combustion object. In this approach, temperature in both burned and unburnt zone is considered during the combustion period i.e. from Intake Valve Closing (IVC) to Exhaust Valve Opening (EVO). Also, the oxygen concentration consumed in burnt zone and trapped fuel mass is also considered while developing the reported model.  Several statistical methods are used to construct the model, including individual machine learning methods and ensemble machine learning methods. A detailed validation of the model on multiple diesel engines is reported in this work. Substantial numbers of cases are tested for different engine configurations over a large span of speed and load points. Different sweeps of operating conditions such as Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR), injection timing and Variable Valve Timing (VVT) are also considered for the validation. Model shows a very good predictability and robustness at both sea level and altitude condition with different ambient conditions. The various advantages such as high accuracy and robustness at different operating conditions, low computational time and lower number of data points requires for the calibration establishes the platform where the model-based approach can be used for the engine calibration and development process. Moreover, the focus of this work is towards establishing a framework for the future model development for other various targets such as soot, Combustion Noise Level (CNL), NO₂/NOx ratio etc.

Keywords: diesel engine, machine learning, NOₓ emission, semi-empirical

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Authors: Mitali Saha, Soma Das

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The fabrication of nanoscale materials for use in chemical sensing, biosensing and biological analyses has proven a promising avenue in the last few years. Cholesterol has aroused considerable interest in recent years on account of its being an important parameter in clinical diagnosis. There is a strong positive correlation between high serum cholesterol level and arteriosclerosis, hypertension, and myocardial infarction. Enzyme-based electrochemical biosensors have shown high selectivity and excellent sensitivity, but the enzyme is easily denatured during its immobilization procedure and its activity is also affected by temperature, pH, and toxic chemicals. Besides, the reproducibility of enzyme-based sensors is not very good which further restrict the application of cholesterol biosensor. It has been demonstrated that carbon nanotubes could promote electron transfer with various redox active proteins, ranging from cytochrome c to glucose oxidase with a deeply embedded redox center. In continuation of our earlier work on the synthesis and applications of carbon and metal based nanoparticles, we have reported here the synthesis of carbon nanotubes (CCNT) by burning coconut oil under insufficient flow of air using an oil lamp. The soot was collected from the top portion of the flame, where the temperature was around 6500C which was purified, functionalized and then characterized by SEM, p-XRD and Raman spectroscopy. The SEM micrographs showed the formation of tubular structure of CCNT having diameter below 100 nm. The XRD pattern indicated the presence of two predominant peaks at 25.20 and 43.80, which corresponded to (002) and (100) planes of CCNT respectively. The Raman spectrum (514 nm excitation) showed the presence of 1600 cm-1 (G-band) related to the vibration of sp2-bonded carbon and at 1350 cm-1 (D-band) responsible for the vibrations of sp3-bonded carbon. A nonenzymatic cholesterol biosensor was then fabricated on an insulating Teflon material containing three silver wires at the surface, covered by CCNT, obtained from coconut oil. Here, CCNTs worked as working as well as counter electrodes whereas reference electrode and electric contacts were made of silver. The dimensions of the electrode was 3.5 cm×1.0 cm×0.5 cm (length× width × height) and it is ideal for working with 50 µL volume like the standard screen printed electrodes. The voltammetric behavior of cholesterol at CCNT electrode was investigated by cyclic voltammeter and differential pulse voltammeter using 0.001 M H2SO4 as electrolyte. The influence of the experimental parameters on the peak currents of cholesterol like pH, accumulation time, and scan rates were optimized. Under optimum conditions, the peak current was found to be linear in the cholesterol concentration range from 1 µM to 50 µM with a sensitivity of ~15.31 μAμM−1cm−2 with lower detection limit of 0.017 µM and response time of about 6s. The long-term storage stability of the sensor was tested for 30 days and the current response was found to be ~85% of its initial response after 30 days.

Keywords: coconut oil, CCNT, cholesterol, biosensor

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Authors: D. Olszewska, J. Niewiedzial

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In some types of Li-ion batteries carbon in the form of graphite is used. Unfortunately, carbon materials, in particular graphite, have very good electrochemical properties, but increase their volume during charge/discharge cycles, which may even lead to an explosion of the cell. The cell element may be replaced by a composite material consisting of lithium-titanium oxide Li4Ti5O12 (LTO) modified with copper and nickel ions and carbon derived from sucrose. This way you can improve the conductivity of the material. LTO is appropriate only for applications which do not require high energy density because of its high operating voltage (ca. 1.5 V vs. Li/Li+). Specific capacity of Li4Ti5O12 is high enough for utilization in Li-ion batteries (theoretical capacity 175 mAh·g-1) but it is lower than capacity of graphite anodes. Materials based on Li4Ti5O12 do not change their volume during charging/discharging cycles, however, LTO has low conductivity. Another positive aspect of the use of sucrose in the carbon composite material is to eliminate the addition of carbon black from the anode of the battery. Therefore, the proposed materials contribute significantly to environmental protection and safety of selected lithium cells. New anode materials in order to obtain Li3.8Cu0.1Ni0.1Ti5O12 have been prepared by solid state synthesis using three-way: i) stoichiometric composition of Li2CO3, TiO2, CuO, NiO (A- Li3.8Cu0.1Ni0.1Ti5O12); ii) stoichiometric composition of Li2CO3, TiO2, Cu(NO3)2, Ni(NO3)2 (B-Li3.8Cu0.1Ni0.1Ti5O12); and iii) stoichiometric composition of Li2CO3, TiO2, CuO, NiO calcined with 10% of saccharose (Li3.8Cu0.1Ni0.1Ti5O12-C). Structure of materials was studied by X-ray diffraction (XRD). The electrochemical properties were performed using appropriately prepared cell Li|Li+|Li3.8Cu0.1Ni0.1Ti5O12 for cyclic voltammetry and discharge/charge measurements. The cells were periodically charged and discharged in the voltage range from 1.3 to 2.0 V applying constant charge/discharge current in order to determine the specific capacity of each electrode. Measurements at various values of the charge/discharge current (from C/10 to 5C) were carried out. Cyclic voltammetry investigation was carried out by applying to the cells a voltage linearly changing over time at a rate of 0.1 mV·s-1 (in the range from 2.0 to 1.3 V and from 1.3 to 2.0 V). The XRD method analyzes show that composite powders were obtained containing, in addition to the main phase, 4.78% and 4% TiO2 in A-Li3.8Cu0.1Ni0.1O12 and B-Li3.8Cu0.1Ni0.1O12, respectively. However, Li3.8Cu0.1Ni0.1O12-C material is three-phase: 63.84% of the main phase, 17.49 TiO2 and 18.67 Li2TiO3. Voltammograms of electrodes containing materials A-Li3.8Cu0.1Ni0.1O12 and B-Li3.8Cu0.1Ni0.1O12 are correct and repeatable. Peak cathode occurs for both samples at a potential approx. 1.52±0.01 V relative to a lithium electrode, while the anodic peak at potential approx. 1.65±0.05 V relative to a lithium electrode. Voltammogram of Li3.8Cu0.1Ni0.1Ti5O12-C (especially for the first measurement cycle) is not correct. There are large variations in values of specific current, which are not characteristic for materials LTO. From the point of view of safety and environmentally friendly production of Li-ion cells eliminating soot and applying Li3.8Cu0.1Ni0.1Ti5O12-C as an active material of an anode in lithium-ion batteries seems to be a good alternative to currently used materials.

Keywords: anode, Li-ion batteries, Li₄O₅O₁₂, spinel

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Authors: Nurlan Smagulov, Aiman Konkabayeva, Akerke Sadykova, Arailym Serik

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Introduction. Adverse environmental factors do not immediately lead to pathological changes in the body. They can exert the growth of pre-pathology characterized by shifts in physiological, biochemical, immunological and other indicators of the body state. These disorders are unstable, reversible and indicative of body reactions. There is an opportunity to objectively judge the internal structure of the adaptive body reactions at the level of individual organs and systems. In order to obtain a stable response of the body to the chronic effects of unfavorable environmental factors of low intensity (compared to production environment factors), a time called the «lag time» is needed. The obtained results without considering this factor distort reality and, for the most part, cannot be a reliable statement of the main conclusions in any work. A technique is needed to reduce methodological errors and combine mathematical logic using statistical methods and a medical point of view, which ultimately will affect the obtained results and avoid a false correlation. Objective. Development of a methodology for assessing and predicting the environmental factors impact on the population health considering the «lag time.» Methods. Research objects: environmental and population morbidity indicators. The database on the environmental state was compiled from the monthly newsletters of Kazhydromet. Data on population morbidity were obtained from regional statistical yearbooks. When processing static data, a time interval (lag) was determined for each «argument-function» pair. That is the required interval, after which the harmful factor effect (argument) will fully manifest itself in the indicators of the organism's state (function). The lag value was determined by cross-correlation functions of arguments (environmental indicators) with functions (morbidity). Correlation coefficients (r) and their reliability (t), Fisher's criterion (F) and the influence share (R2) of the main factor (argument) per indicator (function) were calculated as a percentage. Results. The ecological situation of an industrially developed region has an impact on health indicators, but it has some nuances. Fundamentally opposite results were obtained in the mathematical data processing, considering the «lag time». Namely, an expressed correlation was revealed after two databases (ecology-morbidity) shifted. For example, the lag period was 4 years for dust concentration, general morbidity, and 3 years – for childhood morbidity. These periods accounted for the maximum values of the correlation coefficients and the largest percentage of the influencing factor. Similar results were observed in relation to the concentration of soot, dioxide, etc. The comprehensive statistical processing using multiple correlation-regression variance analysis confirms the correctness of the above statement. This method provided the integrated approach to predicting the degree of pollution of the main environmental components to identify the most dangerous combinations of concentrations of leading negative environmental factors. Conclusion. The method of assessing the «environment-public health» system (considering the «lag time») is qualitatively different from the traditional (without considering the «lag time»). The results significantly differ and are more amenable to a logical explanation of the obtained dependencies. The method allows presenting the quantitative and qualitative dependence in a different way within the «environment-public health» system.

Keywords: ecology, morbidity, population, lag time

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