Search results for: socioeconomic

Authors: Ayse Cobanoglu

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Working memory can be defined as a workspace that holds and regulates active information in mind. This study investigates individual changes in children's working memory from kindergarten to first grade. The main purpose of the study is whether parental discipline methods and child impulsive/overactive behaviors affect children's working memory initial status and growth rate, controlling for gender, minority status, and socioeconomic status (SES). A linear growth curve model with the first four waves of the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten Cohort of 2011 (ECLS-K:2011) is performed to analyze the individual growth of children's working memory longitudinally (N=3915). Results revealed that there is a significant variation among students' initial status in the kindergarten fall semester as well as the growth rate during the first two years of schooling. While minority status, SES, and children's overactive/impulsive behaviors influenced children's initial status, only SES and minority status were significantly associated with the growth rate of working memory. For parental discipline methods, such as giving a warning and ignoring the child's negative behavior, are also negatively associated with initial working memory scores. Following that, students' working memory growth rate is examined, and students with lower SES as well as minorities showed a faster growth pattern during the first two years of schooling. However, the findings of parental disciplinary methods on working memory growth rates were mixed. It can be concluded that schooling helps low-SES minority students to develop their working memory.

Keywords: growth curve modeling, impulsive/overactive behaviors, parenting, working memory

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Authors: Boikanyego Sebina

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The present study investigates the effects of socioeconomic status (SES) and bilingualism on the Setswana speech rhythm of Batswana (citizens) children aged 6-7 years with typical development born and residing in Botswana. Botswana is a country in which there is a diglossic Setswana/English language setting, where English is the dominant high-status language in educational and public contexts. Generally, children from low SES have lower linguistic and cognitive profiles than their age-matched peers from high SES. A greater understanding of these variables would allow educators to distinguish between underdeveloped language skills in children due to impairment and environmental issues for them to successfully enroll children in language development enhancement programs specific to the child’s needs. There are 20 participants: 10 high SES private English-medium educated early sequential Setswana-English bilingual children, taught full-time in English (L2) from the age of 3 years, and for whom English has become dominant; and 10 low SES children who are educated in public schools for whom English is considered a learner language, i.e., L1 Setswana is dominant. The aim is to see whether SES and bilingualism, have had an effect on the Setswana speech rhythm of children in either group. The study primarily uses semi-spontaneous speech based on the telling of the wordless picture storybook. A questionnaire is used to elicit the language use pattern of the children and that of their parents, as well as the education level of the parents and the school the children attend. A comparison of the rhythm shows that children from high SES have a lower durational variability than those from low SES. The findings of the study are that the low durational variability by children from high SES may suggest an underdeveloped rhythm. In conclusion, the results of the present study are against the notion that children from high SES outperform those from low SES in linguistic development.

Keywords: bilingualism, Setswana English, socio-economic status, speech-rhythm

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Authors: Peshawa Jalal Mohammed

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Following the recent political conflict in the Middle East, the number of refugees and internally displaced people increased in the last decades. The flood of displaced people became a big issue for the host communities in the neighbouring countries and Europe. The need for research about the education and integration of the refugees became urgent. After the appearance of the Islamic State and displacing millions of Syrian people, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq became a safe shelter for hundreds of thousands of Syrians and international organisations helping the refugees. This study focuses on the factors of parental involvement among the host community and refugee parents and its role in the academic success of children. The setting is the three provinces of Iraqi Kurdistan (Erbil, Sulaimani, and Dohuk), including the refugee camps in the three provinces. Based on the purpose of the study, the study was designed as a descriptive survey study with a mixed approach, qualitative (open-ended), and quantitative (questionnaire) questions and both forms of data were integrated and analysed. The current study participants were 8th and 9th graders at the basic school level, studying at public schools and their parents. The sampling design was the selection of local schools and schools in the refugee camps in the region's three provinces. The number of participants for each of the two groups was 250 students and 250 parents. The results showed that parents' socioeconomic status, gender, and place of residency have significant roles in students' parental involvement and academic success of their students. The results also show the characteristics of parental inspiration to their children's future and their expectations from education.

Keywords: refugee, education, parental involvement, socioeconomic

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Authors: A. Shirazibeheshti, T. Radwan, A. Ettefaghian, G. Wilson, C. Luca, Farbod Khanizadeh

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Anticholinergic medication has been associated with events such as falls, delirium, and cognitive impairment in older patients. To further assess this, anticholinergic burden scores have been developed to quantify risk. A risk model based on clustering was deployed in a healthcare management system to cluster patients into multiple risk groups according to anticholinergic burden scores of multiple medicines prescribed to patients to facilitate clinical decision-making. To do so, anticholinergic burden scores of drugs were extracted from the literature, which categorizes the risk on a scale of 1 to 3. Given the patients’ prescription data on the healthcare database, a weighted anticholinergic risk score was derived per patient based on the prescription of multiple anticholinergic drugs. This study was conducted on over 300,000 records of patients currently registered with a major regional UK-based healthcare provider. The weighted risk scores were used as inputs to an unsupervised learning algorithm (mean-shift clustering) that groups patients into clusters that represent different levels of anticholinergic risk. To further evaluate the performance of the model, any association between the average risk score within each group and other factors such as socioeconomic status (i.e., Index of Multiple Deprivation) and an index of health and disability were investigated. The clustering identifies a group of 15 patients at the highest risk from multiple anticholinergic medication. Our findings also show that this group of patients is located within more deprived areas of London compared to the population of other risk groups. Furthermore, the prescription of anticholinergic medicines is more skewed to female than male patients, indicating that females are more at risk from this kind of multiple medications. The risk may be monitored and controlled in well artificial intelligence-equipped healthcare management systems.

Keywords: anticholinergic medicines, clustering, deprivation, socioeconomic status

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Authors: Carmiña L. Vargas-Zapata, María A. Conde-Sarmiento, Maria Consuelo Maestre-Vargas

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Calcium is an essential element for good growth and development of the organism, and its requirement is increased at school age. Low socio-economic populations of developing countries such as Colombia may have food deficiency of this mineral in schoolchildren that could be reflected in calcium biochemical indicators, bone alterations and anthropometric indicators. The objective of this investigation was to evaluate some calcium biochemical indicators in a group of schoolchildren of low socioeconomic level from Barranquilla city and to correlate with body mass index. 60 schoolchildren aged 7 to 15 years were selected from Jesus’s Heart Educational Institution in Barranquilla-Atlántico, apparently healthy, without suffering from infectious or gastrointestinal diseases, without habits of drinking alcohol or smoking another hallucinogenic substance and without taking supplementation with calcium in the last six months or another substance that compromises bone metabolism. The research was approved by the ethics committee at Universidad del Atlántico. The selected children were invited to donate a blood and urine sample in a fasting time of 12 hours, the serum was separated by centrifugation and frozen at ˗20 ℃ until analyzed and the same was done with the urine sample. On the day of the biological collections, the weight and height of the students were measured to determine the nutritional status by BMI using the WHO tables. Calcium concentrations in serum and urine (SCa, UCa), alkaline phosphatase activity total and of bone origin (SAPT, SBAP) and urinary creatinine (UCr) were determined by spectrophotometric methods using commercial kits. Osteocalcin and Cross-linked N-telopeptides of type I collagen (NTx-1) in serum were measured with an enzyme-linked inmunosorbent assay. For statistical analysis the Statgraphics software Centurium XVII was used. 63% (n = 38) and 37% (n = 22) of the participants were male and female, respectively. 78% (n = 47), 5% (n = 3) and 17% (n = 10) had a normal, malnutrition and high nutritional status, respectively. The averages of evaluated indicators levels were (mean ± SD): 9.50 ± 1.06 mg/dL for SCa; 181.3 ± 64.3 U/L for SAPT, 143.8 ± 73.9 U/L for SBAP; 9.0 ± 3.48 ng/mL for osteocalcin and 101.3 ± 12.8 ng/mL for NTx-1. UCa level was 12.8 ± 7.7 mg/dL that adjusted with creatinine ranged from 0.005 to 0.395 mg/mg. Considering serum calcium values, approximately 7% of school children were hypocalcemic, 16% hypercalcemic and 77% normocalcemic. The indicators evaluated did not correlate with the BMI. Low values ​​were observed in calcium urinary excretion and high in NTx-1, suggesting that mechanisms such as increase in renal retention of calcium and in bone remodeling may be contributing to calcium homeostasis.

Keywords: calcium, calcium biochemical, indicators, school children, low socioeconomic status

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Authors: Michael Daly

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Background/Aims: The interplay of childhood self-control and early life social background in predicting adult health is currently unclear. We drew on rich data from two large nationally representative cohort studies to test whether individual differences in childhood self-control may: (i) buffer the health impact of social disadvantage, (ii) act as a mediating pathway underlying the emergence of health disparities, or (iii) compensate for the health consequences of socioeconomic disadvantage across the lifespan. Methods: We examined data from over 25,000 participants from the British Cohort Study (BCS) and the National Child Development Study (NCDS). Child self-control was teacher-rated at age 10 in the BCS and ages 7/11 in the NCDS. The Early life social disadvantage was indexed using measures of parental education, occupational prestige, and housing characteristics (i.e. housing tenure, home crowding). A range of health outcomes was examined: the presence of chronic conditions, whether illnesses were limiting, physiological dysregulation (gauged by clinical indicators), mortality, and perceptions of pain, psychological distress, and general health. Results: Childhood self-control and social disadvantage predicted each measure of adult health, with similar strength on average. An examination of mediating factors showed that adult smoking, obesity, and socioeconomic status explained the majority of these linkages. There was no systematic evidence that self-control moderated the health consequences of early social disadvantage and limited evidence that self-control acted as a key pathway from disadvantage to later health. Conclusions: Childhood self-control predicts adult health and may compensate for early life social disadvantage by shaping adult health behaviour and social status.

Keywords: personality and health, social disadvantage, health psychology, life-course development

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Authors: Nibal Al-Batsh, Issam A. Al-Khatib, Subha Ghannam

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Yatta is a town in the Governorate of Hebron, located 9 km south of Hebron City in the West Bank. The town houses over 100,000 people, 49% of which are females; a population that doubles every 15 years. Yatta has been connected to a water network since 1974 serving nearly 85% of the households. The water network is old and inadequate to meet the needs of the population. The water supply made available to the area is also very limited, estimated to be around 20 l/c/d. Residents are thus forced to rely on water vendors which supply water with a lower quality compared to municipal water while being 400% more expensive. As a cheaper and more reliable alternative, rainwater harvesting is a common practice in the area, with the majority of the households owning at least one cistern. Rainwater harvesting is of great socioeconomic importance in areas where water sources are scarce or polluted. In this research, the quality of harvested rainwater used for drinking and domestic purposes in the Yatta area was assessed throughout a year. A total of 100 samples, were collected from (cisterns) with an average capacity of 69 m3, which are adjacent to cement-roof catchment areas with an average area of 145 m2. Samples were analyzed for a number of parameters including: pH, alkalinity, hardness, turbidity, Total Dissolved Solids (TDS), NO3, NH4, chloride and salinity. Biological and microbiological contents such as Total Coliforms (TCC) and Fecal Coliforms (FC) bacteria were also tested. Results showed that most of the rainwater samples were within WHO and EPA guidelines set for chemical parameters. The research also addressed the impact of different socioeconomic attributes on rainwater harvesting through questionnaire that was pre-tested before the actual statically sample is collected.

Keywords: rainwater, harvesting, water quality, socio-economic aspects

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Authors: Mumtaz Ali Baloch

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This article aims at to review the policies and gaps including the socioeconomic and institutional factors that affected the enrollment of disabled children and caused drop-outs. It provides insights to scrutinize the gaps in policies, socioeconomic, and institutional factors with the specific concern in enrollment and drop out of disabled children in Pakistan, and Balochistan in particular. The findings of this study revealed that the old-age centralized policies and a number of socio-economic and institutional factors seemed to have significantly affected the enrollment and quality education in the case of physically disabled children. There were only a few schools functional in entire Balochistan. For example, an entire province (Balochistan) there are only two schools for disabled children, established in Quetta city. In the other 31 districts, an estimated population of 300,000 people of each district there were no schools for the disabled children. The findings of this study revealed that there is a great distinction between the policy and practice in the case of physically disabled children in Quetta, Balochistan. Consequently, such children seemed to have been out of schools. Dropout after the class eighth grade is almost 100%, as there are no high schools available for physically/disabled children, in Balochistan. The concerned organizations and authorities need to develop and ratify specific policies, provide required) facilities to the schools including sufficient budget, streamline the academic planning, and an effective monitoring and evaluation system. Only awareness and motivation could not help in improving the enrollment rate and decreasing the dropout in the case of physically disabled children. There is an urgent need to provide the required facilities to the schools. Almost all students needed assistive equipment, effective physical therapy as well as regular medical facilities. Such measures can improve the enrolment and rehabilitation of children.

Keywords: education policy, practices, physically disabled children, challenges, Balochistan, Pakistan

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Authors: Aemro Tazeze Terefe, Mengistu K. Aredo, Abule M. Workagegnehu, Wondimagegn M. Tesfaye

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Climate-induced shocks have been shown to reduce agricultural production and cause fluctuation in output in developing countries. When livelihoods depend on rain-fed agriculture, climate-induced shocks translate into consumption shocks. Despite the substantial improvements in household consumption, climate-induced shocks, and other factors adversely affect consumption dynamics at the household level in Ethiopia. Therefore, household consumption dynamics in the context of climate-induced shocks help to guide resilience capacity and establish appropriate interventions and programs. The research employed three-round panel data based on the Ethiopian Socioeconomic Survey with spatial rainfall data to define unique measures of rainfall variability. The linear dynamic panel model results show that the lagged value of consumption, market shocks, and rainfall variability positively affected consumption dynamics. In contrast, production shocks, temperature, and amount of rainfall had a negative relationship. Coping strategies mitigate adverse climate-induced shocks on consumption aftershocks that smooth consumption over time. Support to increase the resilience capacity of households can involve efforts to make existing livelihoods and forms of production or reductions in the vulnerability of households. Therefore, government interventions are mandatory for asset accumulation agendas that support household coping strategies and respond to shocks. In addition, the dynamic linkage between consumption and significant socioeconomic and institutional factors should be taken into account to minimize the effect of climate-induced shocks on consumption dynamics.

Keywords: climate shock, Ethiopia, fixed-effect model, food security

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Authors: Siran Offman, Hermes Pacule, Teofilo Nhamuhuco

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Marine invertebrates are very important for the livelihood of coastal communities, particularly in Pemba City. The study was conducted From June 2011 to March 2012. The aim of this study is to determine the socioeconomic impact of collecting marine invertebrates in communities and Chuiba Maringanha. Data were collected biweekly during the spring tide ebb in the intertidal zone, and through structured surveys, the confrontation of data was done through direct observation in the neighborhoods. In total 40 collectors was surveyed and it was found that activity of collecting marine invertebrates is practiced by women 57.2% and men 42.5%. Their ages ranged from 9 to 45 years, and the range was 25-32 dominant with 30.5% and collection practice 5-7 times per week they spend about 4-6 hours a day. The collection methods are direct harvesting by hand aided by knives, sharp irons, and transport use pots, buckets, basins, shawls. Were identified in total 8 marketable species namely: Octopus vulgaris 8.6 Kg, Cyprea Tigers 7 units, Cypraea annulus 48 kg, 40 kg holuturias, Cyprea bully, Atrina vexilium 10 kg, Modiulus philiphinarum and lambis lambis. The species with the greatest economic value are sea cucumber (3 Usd/ kg) and Octopus vulgaris ( 2.5 Usd/ kg) more commercialized. The socio-economic impacts on communities of collectors the average income of collectors varies from 0.5 to 5 Usd/ day and the money are intended to purchase food and agricultural instruments. The other socioeconomics impacts are illiteracy with 36% dropout, and 28% have never studied 87% of unemployed collectors, a high number of family members, weak economic power, poor housing made the basis of local materials and relies on community wells to access water, and most do not have electric power.

Keywords: socio-economic, impacts, collecting marine invertebrates, communities

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Authors: M. Benjamin Stacey

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Energy efficiency has been increasingly recognized as a high value resource through state policies that require utility companies to implement efficiency programs. While policymakers have recognized the statewide economic, environmental, and health related value to residents who rely on this grid supplied resource, varying interests in energy efficiency between socioeconomic groups stands undifferentiated in most state legislation. Instead, the benefits are oftentimes assumed to be distributed equitably across these groups. Despite this fact, these policies are frequently sited by advocacy groups, regulatory bodies and utility companies for their ability to address the negative financial, health and other social impacts of energy poverty in low income communities. Yet, while most states like Michigan require programs that target low income consumers, oftentimes no requirements exist for the equitable investment and energy savings for low income consumers, nor does it stipulate minimal spending levels on low income programs. To further understand the impact of the absence of these factors in legislation, this study examines the distribution of program funds and energy efficiency savings to answer a fundamental energy justice concern; Are there disparities in the investment and benefits of energy efficiency programs between socioeconomic groups? This study compiles data covering the history of Michigan’s Energy Efficiency policy implementation from 2010-2016, analyzing the energy efficiency portfolios of Michigan’s two main energy providers. To make accurate comparisons between these two energy providers' investments and energy savings in low and non-low income programs, the socioeconomic variation for each utility coverage area was captured and accounted for using GIS and US Census data. Interestingly, this study found that both providers invested more equitably in natural gas efficiency programs, however, together these providers invested roughly three times less per household in low income electricity efficiency programs, which resulted in ten times less electricity savings per household. This study also compares variation in commission approved utility plans and actual spending and savings results, with varying patterns pointing to differing portfolio management strategies between companies. This study reveals that for the history of the implementation of Michigan’s Energy Efficiency Policy, that the 35% of Michigan’s population who qualify as low income have received substantially disproportionate funding and energy savings because of the policy. This study provides an overview of results from a social perspective, raises concerns about the impact on energy poverty and equity between consumer groups and is an applicable tool for law makers, regulatory agencies, utility portfolio managers, and advocacy groups concerned with addressing issues related to energy poverty.

Keywords: energy efficiency, energy justice, low income, state policy

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Authors: Hurgesa Hundera, Samuel Shibeshibikeko, Tarike Daba, Tesfaye Ganamo

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The study aimed at examining the ongoing adaptation strategies used by smallholder farmers in response to climate variability in Boset district. It also assessed the socioeconomic factors that influence the choice of adaptation strategies of smallholder farmers to climate variability risk. For attaining the objectives of the study, both primary and secondary sources of data were employed. The primary data were obtained through a household questionnaire, key informant interviews, focus group discussions, and observations, while secondary data were acquired through desk review. Questionnaires were distributed and filled by 328 respondents, and they were identified through systematic random sampling technique. Descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression model were applied in this study as the main analytical methods. The findings of the study reveal that the sample households have utilized multiple adaptation strategies in response to climate variability, such as cropping early mature crops, planting drought resistant crops, growing mixed crops on the same farm lands, and others. The results of the binary logistic model revealed that education, sex, age, family size, off farm income, farm experience, access to climate information, access to farm input, and farm size were significant and key factors determining farmers’ choice of adaptation strategies to climate variability in the study area. To enable effective adaptation measures, Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resource, with its regional bureaus and offices and concerned non–governmental organizations, should consider climate variability in their planning and budgeting in all levels of decision making.

Keywords: adaptation strategies, boset district, climate variability, smallholder farmers

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Authors: Dieudonne Uwizeye, Reuben Muhayiteto

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Teenage pregnancy is a challenging problem for sustainable development due to restrictions it poses to socioeconomic opportunities for young mothers, their children and families. Being unable to take appropriate economic and social responsibilities, teen mothers get trapped into poverty and become economic burden to their family and country. Besides, teenage pregnancy is also a health problem because children born to very young mothers are vulnerable with greater risk of illnesses and deaths, and teenage mothers are more likely to be exposed to greater risk of maternal mortality and to other health and psychological problems. In Kigali city, in Rwanda, teenage pregnancy rate is currently high and its increase in recent years is worrisome. However, only individual factors influencing the teenage pregnancy tend to be the basis of interventions. It is important to understand the important socioeconomic factors at the household level that are associated with teenage pregnancy to help government, parents, and other stakeholders to appropriately address the problem with sustainable measures. This study analyzed secondary data from the Fifth Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey (RDHS-V 2014-2015) conducted by the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR). The aim was to examine household socio-economic factors that are associated with incidence of teenage pregnancies in Kigali city. In addition to descriptive analysis, Pearson’s Chi Square and Binary Logistic Regression were used in the analysis. Findings indicate that marital status and age of household head, number of members in a household, number of rooms used for sleeping, educational level of the household head and household's wealth are significantly associated with teenage pregnancy in Rwanda ( p< 0.05). It was found that teenagers living with parents, those having parents with higher education and those from richer families are less likely to become pregnant. Age of household head was pinpointed as factor to teenage pregnancy, with teenage-headed households being more vulnerable. The findings also revealed that household composition correlates with the probability of teenage pregnancy (p < 0.05) with teenagers from households with less number of members being more vulnerable. Regarding the size of the house, the study suggested that the more rooms available in households, the less incidences of teenage pregnancy are likely to be observed (p < 0.05). However, teenage pregnancy was not significantly associated with physical violence among parents (p = 0.65) and sex of household heads (p = 0.52), except in teen-headed households of which female are predominantly heads. The study concludes that teenage pregnancy remains a serious social, economic and health problem in Rwanda. The study informs government officials, parents and other stakeholders to take interventions and preventive measures through community sex education, policies and strategies to foster effective parental guidance, care and control of young girls through meeting their necessary social and financial needs within households.

Keywords: household socio-economic factors, Rwanda, Rwanda demographic and health survey, teenage pregnancy

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Authors: Syed Toqueer, Omer Younus

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Terrorism, today, has emerged as a global menace with Pakistan being the most adversely affected state. Therefore, the motive behind this study is to empirically establish the linkage of terrorism with socio-economic (uneven income distribution, poverty and unemployment) and political nexuses so that a policy recommendation can be put forth to better approach this issue in Pakistan. For this purpose, the study employs two competing models, namely, the distributed lag model and OLS, so that findings of the model may be consolidated comprehensively, over the reference period of 1984-2012. The findings of both models are indicative of the fact that uneven income distribution of Pakistan is rather a contributing factor towards terrorism when measured through GDP per capita. This supports the hypothesis that immiserizing modernization theory is applicable for the state of Pakistan where the underprivileged are marginalized. Results also suggest that other socio-economic variables (poverty, unemployment and consumer confidence) can condense the brutality of terrorism once these conditions are catered to and improved. The rational of opportunity cost is at the base of this argument. Poor conditions of employment and poverty reduces the opportunity cost for individuals to be recruited by terrorist organizations as economic returns are considerably low and thus increasing the supply of volunteers and subsequently increasing the intensity of terrorism. The argument of political freedom as a means of lowering terrorism stands true. The more the people are politically repressed the more alternative and illegal means they will find to make their voice heard. Also, the argument that politically transitioning economy faces more terrorism is found applicable for Pakistan. Finally, the study contributes to an ongoing debate on which of the two set of factors are more significant with relation to terrorism by suggesting that socio-economic factors are found to be the primary causes of terrorism for Pakistan.

Keywords: terrorism, socioeconomic conditions, political freedom, distributed lag model, ordinary least square

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Authors: Liu Canqi, Zeng Junsheng

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This study identifies two typical bottlenecks that occur when a vehicle cannot change lanes: car following and car stopping. The ideas of traffic field and traffic mass are presented in this work. When there are other vehicles in front of the target vehicle within a particular distance, a force is created that affects the target vehicle's driving speed. The characteristics of the driver and the vehicle collectively determine the traffic mass; the driving speed of the vehicle and external variables have no bearing on this. From a physical level, this study examines the vehicle's bottleneck when following a car, identifies the outside factors that have an impact on how it drives, takes into account that the vehicle will transform kinetic energy into potential energy during deceleration, and builds a calculation model for traffic mass. The energy-time conversion coefficient is created from an economic standpoint utilizing the social average wage level and the average cost of motor fuel. Vissim simulation program measures the vehicle's deceleration distance and delays under the Wiedemann car-following model. The difference between the measured value of deceleration delay acquired by simulation and the theoretical value calculated by the model is compared using the conversion calculation model of traffic mass and deceleration delay. The experimental data demonstrate that the model is reliable since the error rate between the theoretical calculation value of the deceleration delay obtained by the model and the measured value of simulation results is less than 10%. The article's conclusion is that the traffic field has an impact on moving cars on the road and that physical and socioeconomic factors should be taken into account while studying vehicle-following behavior. The deceleration delay value of a vehicle's driving and traffic mass have a socioeconomic relationship that can be utilized to calculate the energy-time conversion coefficient when dealing with the bottleneck of cars stopping and starting.

Keywords: traffic field, social economics, traffic mass, bottleneck, deceleration delay

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Authors: W. C. Lucas, S. Titus, M. E. M. Young

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Gymnastics is the umbrella term that represents seven different and unique disciplines of gymnastics. Men and women of all ages and abilities practice this sport, and participation in gymnastics can develop both gross and fine motor skills, strength, flexibility, coordination and balance. There are various social factors, such as a family’s socioeconomic status or accessibility to sports facilities that may play a role in affecting levels of participation. The aim of this study is to investigate the social factors that have an influence on gymnastics participation in the Western Cape. To this end, a qualitative approach is adopted to collect data. This study also adopts the ecological systems theory as the theoretical framework, and is used to analyze and interpret current social factors that directly or indirectly influence participation in gymnastics. The study’s objectives were to ascertain which social factors hinder participation, and which social factors promote participation, thus, coaches, parents and gymnasts participated in focus group discussions. Key informant interviews took place with experts in the field of gymnastics in the Western Cape. A thematic analysis was conducted on transcriptions from the focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Social factors investigated in this study occurred in the chronosystem, macrosystem, exosystem, mesosystem, and microsystem, and had both a direct and indirect influence on the gymnast’s continued participation. These systems are defined as the environment of the individual, in which they grow and develop. The research findings of this paper are used to draw conclusions and make specific recommendations for practice and further research. The information gathered in this study can assist all stakeholders within the field of gymnastics, such as parents, judges, coaches, gymnasts, and the supporting community which surround the participating gymnast.

Keywords: developing child, ecological systems theory, facilities, federation, gymnastics, influence, participation, social factors, socioeconomic status, sport

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Authors: Tamirat Solomon, Aberash Yohannis, Efrem Gulfo

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The plantation of trees, which harmonizes the agroecology of the environment, has been implemented in Ethiopia with great concern for a noticeably degraded environment. This study was designed to evaluate the effectiveness of green legacy, species selection and, the rate of survival, and the management status in the study areas. A systematic sampling method was employed to collect the required data from 144 quadrants measuring a 15m radius with an interval of 40m apart. Additionally, 244 sample households were selected for the socioeconomic study in addition to secondary data collected from office recordings. The data collected was analyzed using multivariate analysis, considering exposure and outcome variables. The findings of this study indicated that four exotic tree species, namely; A. salgina, C. fistula, A. indica, and G. robusta, were commonly selected tree species for degraded land restoration in the study areas. Among the seedlings planted at the four study sites, a total of 79.9% survived, and A. salgina was the dominant and best performed species, A. indica was the least survived species in the entire study area. The age of the seedling before planting significantly (p = 0.05) affected the survival potential of most seedlings of species, and the majority (82%) of local communities expressed their positive attitudes and willingness to manage the restoration works in the study areas. It was recommended to consider the inclusion of native species in the restoration effort and evaluate the co-existence of native flora with exotic and its competition for nutrients, water, and light in addition to the invading potentials in the ecosystem. In general, before embarking on degraded land restoration, species selection, adequate preparation of seedlings, and species diversity composition that exactly fit the socioeconomic and ecological demands of the areas must get the attention for the success of the restoration.

Keywords: plantation forest, degraded land, forest restoration, plantation survival, species selection

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Authors: Deborah Nicholson, Fiona McCormack, Pete Seaman, Karen Bell

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This paper explores alcohol consumption amongst retirees in the West of Scotland in the context of active and healthy ageing discourses. The public health consequences of alcohol use are well documented and of growing concern to policy makers in Scotland and elsewhere. However, alcohol occupies a prominent position in a range of cultural and social practices and has associated meanings for users related to conviviality, leisure, sociability, and inclusion- features closely tied to active and healthy ageing. These perceived positive and negative meanings place alcohol in an ambiguous and contradictory position in relation to the Scottish Government’s key health policy initiatives aimed at healthy ageing and the reduction of alcohol-related ill-health. This paper explores these positive and negative associations through an examination of the meanings which retirees attach to alcohol and the routines and rituals they develop to navigate wider health concerns. Methods: participants were recruited from the West of Scotland area using a quota sampling design based around gender, age, and socioeconomic position. Forty participants were interviewed using a semi-structured interview schedule and qualitative techniques. The interviews were transcribed and thematic analysis of the data was conducted. Results: Alcohol use amongst retirees in Scotland was widely varied with marked differences noted in terms of gender and age group, but with less clear variance by socioeconomic position. A range of strategies was employed to limit alcohol use by time, context, location and/or volume and these strategies clearly drew on a perception of alcohol use in retirement as potentially more problematic than at earlier stage of life. Thus, the retirees in the sample used these limiting strategies to navigate the positive and negative meanings they attached to alcohol use.

Keywords: alcohol, health, retirement, routines

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Authors: Lateef Hakim Zai Khyber, Syed Rashid Ali

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In the post 9/11 era, a new trend has developed of terrorist profiling on the basis of the ethnic, religious, political, psychological, social, and economic background of the terrorists to anticipate and assess the possible risk and to prevent and prosecute the suspected before they commit any violent act. The same profiling approach was adopted in different militant or terrorist de-radicalization and rehabilitation programs across the world in order to evaluate and identify the reasons and causes for joining terrorism in terms of push and pull factors. This paper attempts to explore and investigate the profiles of the detainees in the Sabaoon de-radicalization and Emancipation program, which aimed at de-radicalizing the former militants of Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) Pakistan in the Swat valley of Pakistan. This research attempted to use qualitative methods for collecting data, including a number of formal and informal open-ended interviews with the former staff members of Sabaoon to explore various aspects of the program, such as various approaches used at Sabaoon for terrorist profiling. It conducts a thorough examination of the profiles of the terrorist through their socioeconomic, ideological, emotional, intellectual, and psychological conditions and orientations, personal details, family issues, social preferences, etc. The study finds out that the majority of the terrorists belonged to the marginalized groups or lower class, including underprivileged tenants and poor laborers, of society having no access to land. They possess almost the same profiles, including low socioeconomic status, absence of a father or strict behavior of parents, large and combined families, lack of education, lack of religious understanding, etc. They also possess some common traits such as anxiety disorder, emotional instability, aggressive impulses and insecurity, depression, inferiority complex, lack of critical thinking and logical reasoning, authority-seeking behavior, and revenge-seeking behavior.

Keywords: terrorist profiling, Sabaoon, de-radicalization, rehabilitation, Swat, Pakistan, juvenile militants

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Authors: Emir Sunguroglu, Merve Sunguroglu, Yesim Aliefendioglu, Harun Tanrivermis

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Basic human needs range from physiological needs such as food, water and shelter to safety needs such as security, protection from natural disasters and even urban terrorism which are extant and not fulfilled even in urban areas where people live civilly in large communities. These basic needs when arose in urban life lead to a different kind of crime set defined as urban crimes. Urban crimes mostly result from differences between socioeconomic conditions in society. Income inequality increases tendency towards urban crimes. Especially in slum areas and suburbs, urban crimes not only threaten public security but they also affect deliverance of public services. It is highlighted that, construction of urban security against problems caused by urban crimes is not only achieved by involvement of urban security in security of the community but also comprises juridical development and staying above a level of legal standards concurrently. The idea of urban transformation emerged as interventions to demolishment and rebuilding of built environment to solve the unhealthy urban environment, inadequate infrastructure and socioeconomic problems came up during the industrialization process. Considering the probability of urbanization process driving citizens to commit crimes, The United Nations Commission on Human Security’s focus on this theme is conferred to be a proper approach. In this study, the analysis and change in security before, through and after urban transformation, which is one of the tools related to urbanization process, is strived to be discussed through the case of Sincan County Saraycik District. The study also aims to suggest improvements to current legislation on public safety, urban resilience, and urban transformation. In spite of Saraycik District residing in a developing County in Ankara, Turkey, from urbanization perspective as well as socioeconomic and demographic indicators the District exhibits a negative view throughout the County and the country. When related to the county, rates of intentional harm reports, burglary reports, the offense of libel and threat reports and narcotic crime reports are higher. The District is defined as ‘crime hotspot’. Interviews with residents of Saraycik claim that the greatest issue of the neighborhood is Public Order and Security (82.44 %). The District becomes prominent with negative aspects, especially with the presence of unlicensed constructions, occurrence of important social issues such as crime and insecurity and complicated lives of inhabitants from poverty and low standard conditions of living. Additionally, the social structure and demographic properties and crime and insecurity of the field have been addressed in this study. Consequently, it is claimed that urban crime rates were related to level of education, employment and household income, poverty trap, physical condition of housing and structuration, accessibility of public services, security, migration, safety in terms of disasters and emphasized that urban transformation is one of the most important tools in order to provide urban security.

Keywords: urban security, urban crimes, urban transformation, Saraycik district

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Authors: Szerena Vajkovszki

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Our worldwide aging society, especially in developed countries, including members of EU, raise sophisticated sociological and economic issues and challenges to be met. As declining fertility has outstanding influence underlying this trend, numerous studies have attempted to identify, describe, measure and interpret contributing factors of the fertility rate, out of which relatively few revealed the impact of religion. Identified, examined and influential factors affecting birth rate as stated by the present scientific publications are more than a dozen out of which religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural norms were examined first with a special focus on abortion and forms of birth control. Nevertheless, connected to religion, not only these topics are crucial regarding fertility, but many others as well. Among many religious guidelines, we can separate two major categories: direct and indirect. The aim of this research was to understand what are the most crucial identified (family values, gender related behaviors, religious sentiments) and not yet identified most influential contributing religious factors. Above identifying these direct or indirect factors, it is also important to understand to what extent and how do they influence fertility, which requires a wider (inter-discipline) perspective. As proved by previous studies religion has also an influential role on health, mental state, well-being, working activity and many other components that are also related to fertility rates. All these components are inter-related. Hence direct and indirect religious effects can only be well understood if we figure out all necessary fields and their interaction. With the help of semi-structured opened interviews taking place in different countries, it was showed that indeed Buddhism has significant direct and indirect effect on fertility. Hence the initial hypothesis was proved. However, the interviews showed an overall positive effect; the results could only serve for a general understanding of how Buddhism affects fertility. Evolution of Buddhism’s direct and indirect influence may vary in different nations and circumstances according to their specific environmental attributes. According to the local patterns, with special regard to women’s position and role in the society, outstandingly indirect influences could show diversifications. So it is advisory to investigate more for a deeper and clearer understanding of how Buddhism function in different socioeconomic circumstances. For this purpose, a specific and detailed analysis was developed from recent related researches about women’s position (including family roles and economic activity) in Hungary with the intention to be able to have a complex vision of crucial socioeconomic factors influencing fertility. Further interviews and investigations are to be done in order to show a complex vision of Buddhism’s direct and indirect effect on fertility in Hungary to be able to support recommendations and policies pointing to higher fertility rates in the field of social policies. The present research could serve as a general starting point or a common basis for further specific national investigations.

Keywords: Buddhism, children, fertility, gender roles, religion, women

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Authors: Anuradha Maharaj, Adrian Cashman

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The cross-cutting nature of water as a resource translates into the need for a better understanding of its movement, storage and loss at all points in the hydro-socioeconomic cycle. An integrated approach to addressing the issue of sustainability means quantitatively understanding: the linkages within this cycle, the role of water managers in resource allocation, and the critical factors influencing its scarcity. The Water Evaluation and Planning Tool (WEAP) is an integrative model that combines the catchment-scale hydrologic processes with a water management model, driven by environmental requirements and socioeconomic demands. The concept of demand priorities is included to represent the areas of greatest use within a given catchment. Located on Barbados’ West Coast, Speightstown and the surrounding areas encompass a well-developed tourist, residential and agricultural area. The main water resource for this area, and the rest of the island, is that of groundwater. The availability of groundwater in Barbados may be adversely affected by the projected changes in climate, such as reduced wet season rainfall. Economic development and changing sector priorities together with climate related changes have the potential to affect water resource abundance and by extension the allocation of resources for example in the Speightstown area. In order to investigate the potential impacts on the Speightstown area specifically, a WEAP Model of the study area was developed to estimate the present available water (baseline reference scenario 2000-2010). From this baseline scenario, it is envisioned that an exploration into projected changes in availability in the near term (2035-2045) and medium/long term (2065-2075) time frames will be undertaken. The generated estimations can assist water managers to better evaluate the status of and identify trends in water use and formulate adaptation measures to offset future deficits.

Keywords: water evaluation and planning system (WEAP), water availability, demand and supply, water allocation

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Authors: Danielle A. Walker, Kyle L. Johnson, Tara B. Thomas, Sandor Dorgo, Jacen S. Moore

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Approximately 37 million people worldwide are infected with the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), with the majority located in sub-Saharan Africa. The relationship existing between HIV incidence and socioeconomic inequity confirms the critical need for programs promoting HIV education, prevention and treatment access. This literature review analyzed 36 sources with a specific focus on the Democratic Republic of Congo, whose critically low socioeconomic status and education rate have resulted in a drastically high HIV rates. Relationships between HIV testing and treatment and barriers to care were explored. Cultural and religious considerations were found to be vital when creating and implementing HIV education and testing programs. Partnerships encouraging active support from community-based spiritual leaders to implement HIV educational programs were also key mechanisms to reach communities and individuals. Gender roles were highlighted as a key component for implementation of effective community trust-building and successful HIV education programs. The efficacy of added support by hospitals and clinics in rural areas to facilitate access to HIV testing and care for people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) was discussed. This review highlighted the need for healthcare providers to provide a network of continued education for PLWHA in clinical settings during disclosure and throughout the course of treatment to increase retention in care and promote medication adherence for viral load suppression. Implementation of culturally sensitive models that rely on community familiarity with HIV educators such as ‘train-the-trainer’ were also proposed as efficacious tools for educating rural communities about HIV. Further research is needed to promote community partnerships for HIV education, understand the cultural context of gender roles as barriers to care, and empower local health care providers to be successful within the HIV Continuum of Care.

Keywords: cultural sensitivity, Democratic Republic of the Congo, education, HIV

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Authors: Afshan Golriz

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This paper addresses the nuances in the relationship between the rural community of Volcan, Costa Rica, and the presence of multinational pineapple giant Pineapple Development Corporation (PINDECO). The paper analyzes the continuous negotiation between the need for environmental protection in the face of pineapple monoculture and the socioeconomic dependencies of the community on the company. Drawing on eight years of ethnographic work in Volcan de Buenos Aires and relying on intergenerational interviews that document oral histories, this article provides a socio-historical account of the economic and environmental impact of the presence of PINDECO in the southern zone of the country. The paper draws on interviews and in-depth participant observation, conducted by the author in intermittent periods over eight years. The research sheds light on the tensions between the village and PINDECO, as simultaneous acceptance of and opposition to the company persist by different stakeholders in the region. In doing so, this paper examines the strikingly powerful affinity toward the company and the community's regard for PINDECO as the town patriarch despite social and environmental injustices. In demonstrating these tensions, the author problematizes the practice of conducting foreign environmental research in developing countries, and more importantly, proposing changes to environmental conservation and socioeconomic structures without understanding community reliance on the presence of corporations such as PINDECO and the threats that changes to existing structures could pose to community members' livelihoods. In complicating these common western academic practices, the author takes an anti-colonial approach to environmental research, refusing the assumption that the affinity toward the company by the community of Volcan is rooted in ignorance, lack of education, or lack of interest in environmental conservation. The author instead highlights local knowledge and agency, demonstrating the many ways in which the community itself is producing knowledge and taking action. Through this paper, common assumptions regarding the agency of such communities are contested, and the grassroots environmental initiatives of Volcan, Costa Rica are brought to life.

Keywords: environmental conservation, grassroots movements, local knowledge, agricultural multinational

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Authors: Atefeh Bagherianziarat, Dana Hamplova

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The inverse social gradient in life satisfaction (LS) is a well-established research finding. To estimate the influence of inequality on LS, most of the studies have explored the effect of the objective aspects of inequality or individuals’ socioeconomic status (SES). However, relatively fewer studies have confirmed recently the significant effect of the subjective aspect of inequality or subjective socioeconomic status (SSS) on life satisfaction over and above SES. In other words, it is confirmed by some studies that individuals’ perception of their unequal status in society or SSS can moderate the impact of their absolute unequal status on their life satisfaction. Nevertheless, this newly confirmed moderating link has not been affirmed to work likewise in societies with different levels of social inequality and also for people who believe in the value of equality, at different levels. In this study, we compared the moderative influence of subjective inequality on the link between objective inequality and life satisfaction. In particular, we focus on differences across welfare state regimes based on Esping-Andersen's theory. Also, we explored the moderative role of believing in the value of equality on the link between objective and subjective inequality on LS in the given societies. Since our studied variables were measured at both individual and country levels, we applied a multilevel analysis to the European Social Survey data (round 9). The results showed that people in deferent regimes reported statistically meaningful different levels of life satisfaction that is explained to different extends by their household income and their perception of their income inequality. The findings of the study supported the previous findings of the moderator influence of perceived inequality on the link between objective inequality and LS. However, this link is different in various welfare state regimes. The results of the multilevel modeling showed that country-level subjective equality is a positive predictor for individuals’ life satisfaction, while the GINI coefficient that was considered as the indicator of absolute inequality has a smaller effect on life satisfaction. Also, country-level subjective equality moderates the confirmed link between individuals’ income and their life satisfaction. It can be concluded that both individual and country-level subjective inequality slightly moderate the effect of individuals’ income on their life satisfaction.

Keywords: individual values, life satisfaction, multilevel analysis, objective inequality, subjective inequality, welfare regimes status

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Authors: P. Tsarouhas, Ch. Achillas, D. Aidonis, D. Folinas, V. Maslis, N. Moussiopoulos

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Agricultural production is a sector with high socioeconomic significance and key implications on employment and nutritional security. However, the impacts of agrifood production and consumption patterns on the environment are considerable, mainly due to the demand of large inputs of resources. This paper presents a case study of olive oil production in Greece, an important agri-product especially for countries in the Mediterranean basin. Life Cycle Analysis has been used to quantify the environmental performance of olive oil production. All key parameters that are associated with the life cycle of olive oil production are studied and environmental “hotspots” are diagnosed.

Keywords: LCA, olive oil production, environmental impact, case study, Greece

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Authors: Basma Yassa

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Evidence on cash transfers’ effectiveness in mitigating macro and idiosyncratic shocks’ impacts has been mixed and is mostly concentrated in Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia with very limited evidence from the MENA region. Yet conditional cash transfers schemes have been continually used, especially in Egypt, as the main social protection tool in response to the recent socioeconomic crises and macro shocks. We use 2 panel datasets and 1 cross-sectional dataset to estimate the effectiveness of cash transfers as a shock-mitigative mechanism in the Egyptian context. In this paper, the results from the different models (Panel Fixed Effects model and the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) model) confirm that micro and macro shocks lead to significant decline in several household-level welfare outcomes and that Takaful cash transfers have a significant positive impact in mitigating the negative shock impacts, especially on households’ debt incidence, debt levels, and asset ownership, but not necessarily on food, and non-food expenditure levels. The results indicate large positive significant effects on decreasing household incidence of debt by up to 12.4 percent and lowered the debt size by approximately 18 percent among Takaful beneficiaries compared to non-beneficiaries’. Similar evidence is found on asset ownership levels, as the RDD model shows significant positive effects on total asset ownership and productive asset ownership, but the model failed to detect positive impacts on per capita food and non-food expenditures. Further extensions are still in progress to compare the models’ results with the DID model results when using a nationally representative ELMPS panel data (2018/2024) rounds. Finally, our initial analysis suggests that conditional cash transfers are effective in buffering the negative shock impacts on certain welfare indicators even after successive macro-economic shocks in 2022 and 2023 in the Egyptian Context.

Keywords: cash transfers, fixed effects, household welfare, household debt, micro shocks, regression discontinuity design

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Authors: Kalayanee Senasu

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This research investigates Thai people’s happiness based on socioeconomic factors, i.e. region, municipality, gender, age, and occupation. The research data were collected from survey data using interviewed questionnaires. The primary data were from stratified multi-stage sampling in each region, province, district, and enumeration area; and simple random sampling in each enumeration area. These data were collected in 13 provinces: Bangkok and three provinces in each of all four regions. The data were collected over two consecutive years. There were 3,217 usable responses from the 2017 sampling, and 3,280 usable responses from the 2018 sampling. The Senasu’s Thai Happiness Index (THaI) was used to calculate the happiness level of Thai people in 2017 and 2018. This Thai Happiness Index comprises five dimensions: subjective well-being, quality of life, philosophy of living, governance, and standard of living. The result reveals that the 2017 happiness value is 0.506, while Thai people are happier in 2018 (THaI = 0.556). For 2017 happiness, people in the Central region have the highest happiness (THaI = 0.532), which is followed closely by people in the Bangkok Metropolitan Area (THaI = 0.530). People in the North have the lowest happiness (THaI = 0.476) which is close to the level for people in the Northeast (THaI = 0.479). Comparing age groups, it is found that people in the age range 25-29 years old are the happiest (THaI = 0.529), followed by people in the age range 55-59 and 35-39 years old (THaI = 0.526 and 0.523, respectively). Additionally, people who live in municipal areas are happier than those who live in non-municipal areas (THaI = 0.533 vs. 0.475). Males are happier than females (THaI = 0.530 vs. 0.482), and retired people, entrepreneurs, and government employees are all in the high happiness groups (THaI =0.614, 0.608, and 0.593, respectively). For 2018 happiness, people in the Northern region have the highest happiness (THaI = 0.590), which is followed closely by people in the South and Bangkok Metropolitan Area (THaI = 0.578 and 0.577, respectively). People in the Central have the lowest happiness (THaI = 0.530), which is close to the level for people in the Northeast (THaI = 0.533). Comparing age groups, it is found that people in the age range 35-39 years old are the happiest (THaI = 0.572), followed by people in the age range 40-44 and 60-64 years old (THaI = 0.569 and 0.568, respectively). Similar to 2017 happiness, people who live in municipal areas are happier than those who live in non-municipal areas (THaI = 0.567 vs. 0. 552). However, males and females are happy at about the same levels (THaI = 0.561 vs. 0.560), and government employees, retired people, and state enterprise employees are all in the high happiness groups (THaI =0.667, 0.639, and 0.661, respectively).

Keywords: happiness, quality of life, Thai happiness index, socio-economic factors

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Authors: Stefan Kurbatfinski, Aliyah Dosani, Andrew F. Hayes, Deborah Dewey, Nicole Letourneau

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Background: Maternal adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) have been associated with internalizing and externalizing behavioral problems in preschool children. However, little is known about the influence of maternal adult attachment patterns on this association. Further, potential moderation by maternal mental health, maternal social support, or child sex is poorly understood. Therefore, this study examined associations between 1) maternal ACEs and preschool children’s behavioural problems, with mediation through maternal attachment patterns and moderation by maternal mental health, maternal social support, and child sex; and 2) maternal attachment patterns and children’s behavioural problems, with mediation through maternal mental health and social support and moderation by child sex. Methods: This secondary analysis used data (n=625) from a high socioeconomic, longitudinally prospective cohort (Alberta Pregnancy Outcomes and Nutrition). Child behaviour (BASC-2) and maternal adult attachment (ECR-Q) were measured at five years of child age, maternal ACEs (ACEs Questionnaire) at around 12 months, and maternal mental health (CESD and SCL-90-R) and social support (SSQ) across various prenatal and postnatal time points. All moderation and mediation analyses occurred through RStudio using PROCESS, interpreting significant interactions through Johnson-Neyman plots. Findings: Maternal ACEs interacted with maternal anxiety symptoms to predict both behavioural problems (pexternalizing=0.007; pinternalizing=0.0159). An indirect pathway via dismissive attachment was moderated by maternal social support ([0.0058, 0.0596]). Attachment patterns predicted all behavioural problems (p<0.05) and interacted with maternal anxiety symptoms to predict internalizing behaviours among male children ([0.0321, 0.1307]; [0.0321, 0.1291]). Interpretation: Maternal attachment patterns may predict children’s behavioural problems more than ACEs. Social support interventions may not always be beneficial for highly dismissively attached mothers. Implications for policy and child health include mandatory sex and gender education for teachers; assessing attachment patterns prior to recommending social support as an intervention; and anxiety-focused interventions for mothers in higher socioeconomic populations.

Keywords: maternal adverse childhood experiences, internalizing behaviours, externalizing behaviours, mediators and moderators, attachment patterns, child health

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Authors: Orkan Ozcan, Nebiye Musaoglu, Murat Turkes

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Climate change is largely recognized as one of the real, pressing and significant global problems. The concept of ‘climate change vulnerability’ helps us to better comprehend the cause/effect relationships behind climate change and its impact on human societies, socioeconomic sectors, physiographical and ecological systems. In this study, multifactorial spatial modeling was applied to evaluate the vulnerability of a Mediterranean forest ecosystem to climate change. As a result, the geographical distribution of the final Environmental Vulnerability Areas (EVAs) of the forest ecosystem is based on the estimated final Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) values. This revealed that at current levels of environmental degradation, physical, geographical, policy enforcement and socioeconomic conditions, the area with a ‘very low’ vulnerability degree covered mainly the town, its surrounding settlements and the agricultural lands found mainly over the low and flat travertine plateau and the plains at the east and southeast of the district. The spatial magnitude of the EVAs over the forest ecosystem under the current environmental degradation was also determined. This revealed that the EVAs classed as ‘very low’ account for 21% of the total area of the forest ecosystem, those classed as ‘low’ account for 36%, those classed as ‘medium’ account for 20%, and those classed as ‘high’ account for 24%. Based on regionally averaged future climate assessments and projected future climate indicators, both the study site and the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey will probably become associated with a drier, hotter, more continental and more water-deficient climate. This analysis holds true for all future scenarios, with the exception of RCP4.5 for the period from 2015 to 2030. However, the present dry-sub humid climate dominating this sub-region and the study area shows a potential for change towards more dry climatology and for it to become a semiarid climate in the period between 2031 and 2050 according to the RCP8.5 high emission scenario. All the observed and estimated results and assessments summarized in the study show clearly that the densest forest ecosystem in the southern part of the study site, which is characterized by mainly Mediterranean coniferous and some mixed forest and the maquis vegetation, will very likely be influenced by medium and high degrees of vulnerability to future environmental degradation, climate change and variability.

Keywords: forest ecosystem, Mediterranean climate, RCP scenarios, vulnerability analysis

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