Search results for: series active filer
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5884

Search results for: series active filer

5824 Stock Price Prediction Using Time Series Algorithms

Authors: Sumit Sen, Sohan Khedekar, Umang Shinde, Shivam Bhargava

Abstract:

This study has been undertaken to investigate whether the deep learning models are able to predict the future stock prices by training the model with the historical stock price data. Since this work required time series analysis, various models are present today to perform time series analysis such as Recurrent Neural Network LSTM, ARIMA and Facebook Prophet. Applying these models the movement of stock price of stocks are predicted and also tried to provide the future prediction of the stock price of a stock. Final product will be a stock price prediction web application that is developed for providing the user the ease of analysis of the stocks and will also provide the predicted stock price for the next seven days.

Keywords: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Deep Learning, Long Short Term Memory, Time-series

Procedia PDF Downloads 106
5823 Controlling Interactions and Non-Equilibrium Steady State in Spinning Active Matter Monolayers

Authors: Joshua Paul Steimel, Michael Pappas, Ethan Hall

Abstract:

Particle-particle interactions are critical in determining the state of an active matter system. Unique and ubiquitous non-equilibrium behavior like swarming, vortexing, spiraling, and much more is governed by interactions between active units or particles. In hybrid active-passive matter systems, the attraction between spinning active units in a 2D monolayer of passive particles is controlled by the mechanical behavior of the passive monolayer. We demonstrate here that the range and dynamics of this attraction can be controlled by changing the composition of the passive monolayer by adding dopant passive particles. These dopant passive particles effectively pin the movement of dislocation motion in the passive media and reduce the probability of defect motion required to erode the bridge of passive particles between active spinners, thus reducing the range of attraction. Additionally, by adding an out of plane component to the magnetic moment and creating a top-like motion a short range repulsion emerges between the top-like particle. At inter-top distances less than four particle diameters apart, the tops repel but beyond that, distance attract up to 13 particle diameters apart. The tops were also able to locally and transiently anneal the passive monolayer. Thus we demonstrate that by tuning several parameters of the hybrid active matter system, one can observe very different emergent behavior.

Keywords: active matter, colloids, ferromagnetic, annealing

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5822 Signal Processing Approach to Study Multifractality and Singularity of Solar Wind Speed Time Series

Authors: Tushnik Sarkar, Mofazzal H. Khondekar, Subrata Banerjee

Abstract:

This paper investigates the nature of the fluctuation of the daily average Solar wind speed time series collected over a period of 2492 days, from 1st January, 1997 to 28th October, 2003. The degree of self-similarity and scalability of the Solar Wind Speed signal has been explored to characterise the signal fluctuation. Multi-fractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA) method has been implemented on the signal which is under investigation to perform this task. Furthermore, the singularity spectra of the signals have been also obtained to gauge the extent of the multifractality of the time series signal.

Keywords: detrended fluctuation analysis, generalized hurst exponent, holder exponents, multifractal exponent, multifractal spectrum, singularity spectrum, time series analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 364
5821 A Comparative Study of Substituted Li Ferrites Sintered by the Conventional and Microwave Sintering Technique

Authors: Ibetombi Soibam

Abstract:

Li-Zn-Ni ferrite having the compositional formula Li0.4-0.5xZn0.2NixFe2.4-0.5xO4 where x = 0.02 ≤ x ≤0.1 in steps of 0.02 was fabricated by the citrate precursor method. In this method, metal nitrates and citric acid was used to prepare the gel which exhibit self-propagating combustion behavior giving the required ferrite sample. The ferrite sample was given a pre-firing at 650°C in a programmable conventional furnace for 3 hours with a heating rate of 5°C/min. A series of the sample was finally given conventional sintering (CS) at 1040°C after the pre-firing process. Another series was given microwave sintering (MS) at 1040°C in a programmable microwave furnace which uses a single magnetron operating at 2.45 GHz frequency. X- ray diffraction pattern confirmed the spinel phase structure for both the series. The theoretical and experimental density was calculated. It was observed that densification increases with the increase in Ni concentration in both the series. However, samples sintered by microwave technique was found to be denser. The microstructure of the two series of the sample was examined using scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Dielectric properties have been investigated as a function of frequency and composition for both series of samples sintered by CS and MS technique. The variation of dielectric constant with frequency show dispersion for both the series. It was explained in terms of Koop’s two layer model. From the analysis of dielectric measurement, it was observed that the value of room temperature dielectric constant decreases with the increase in Ni concentration for both the series. The microwave sintered samples show a lower dielectric constant making microwave sintering suitable for high-frequency applications. The possible mechanisms contributing to all the above behavior is being discussed.

Keywords: citrate precursor, dielectric constant, ferrites, microwave sintering

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5820 Spontaneous Transformation in U. Maritimus: A Case Series

Authors: Lur N. Dreier

Abstract:

Spontaneous transformation in Ursus maritimus is generally considered to be seldom, albeit not, to this author's best knowledge, previously unpublished in the medical literature. However, no case series has to date described transformative spontaneous processes to filios hominum species. Norwegian public hospital system, is, however, especially the grounds of the specific climate in the Northern hemisphere, and because of a high suited to observe such transformations, both on income level. Hence, this paper describes, to our knowledge, the first case series of 25 patients undergoing treatment for spontaneous transformation in four Norwegian hospitals. The methodology was to include patients on a consecutive basis, identifying clinically and laboratory the typology in each of the four hospitals. The major findings were that the archetypes were heterogeneous, with coercive laboratory findings, with a high degree of redundancy of the process. This might potentially lead to many advances in the diagnostics.

Keywords: case series, transformation, hominum species, maritimus species

Procedia PDF Downloads 214
5819 Performance and Availability Analysis of 2N Redundancy Models

Authors: Yutae Lee

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider the performance and availability of a redundancy model. The redundancy model is a form of resilience that ensures service availability in the event of component failure. This paper considers a 2N redundancy model. In the model there are at most one active service unit and at most one standby service unit. The active one is providing the service while the standby is prepared to take over the active role when the active fails. We design our analysis model using Stochastic Reward Nets, and then evaluate the performance and availability of 2N redundancy model using Stochastic Petri Net Package (SPNP).

Keywords: availability, performance, stochastic reward net, 2N redundancy

Procedia PDF Downloads 388
5818 Active Learning in Computer Exercises on Electronics

Authors: Zoja Raud, Valery Vodovozov

Abstract:

Modelling and simulation provide effective way to acquire engineering experience. An active approach to modelling and simulation proposed in the paper involves, beside the compulsory part directed by the traditional step-by-step instructions, the new optional part basing on the human’s habits to design thus stimulating the efforts towards success in active learning. Computer exercises as a part of engineering curriculum incorporate a set of effective activities. In addition to the knowledge acquired in theoretical training, the described educational arrangement helps to develop problem solutions, computation skills, and experimentation performance along with enhancement of practical experience and qualification.

Keywords: modelling, simulation, engineering education, electronics, active learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 361
5817 Approximation of the Time Series by Fractal Brownian Motion

Authors: Valeria Bondarenko

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose two problems related to fractal Brownian motion. First problem is simultaneous estimation of two parameters, Hurst exponent and the volatility, that describe this random process. Numerical tests for the simulated fBm provided an efficient method. Second problem is approximation of the increments of the observed time series by a power function by increments from the fractional Brownian motion. Approximation and estimation are shown on the example of real data, daily deposit interest rates.

Keywords: fractional Brownian motion, Gausssian processes, approximation, time series, estimation of properties of the model

Procedia PDF Downloads 340
5816 Power Series Solution to Sliding Velocity in Three-Dimensional Multibody Systems with Impact and Friction

Authors: Hesham A. Elkaranshawy, Amr M. Abdelrazek, Hosam M. Ezzat

Abstract:

The system of ordinary nonlinear differential equations describing sliding velocity during impact with friction for a three-dimensional rigid-multibody system is developed. No analytical solutions have been obtained before for this highly nonlinear system. Hence, a power series solution is proposed. Since the validity of this solution is limited to its convergence zone, a suitable time step is chosen and at the end of it a new series solution is constructed. For a case study, the trajectory of the sliding velocity using the proposed method is built using 6 time steps, which coincides with a Runge-Kutta solution using 38 time steps.

Keywords: impact with friction, nonlinear ordinary differential equations, power series solutions, rough collision

Procedia PDF Downloads 452
5815 Series Solutions to Boundary Value Differential Equations

Authors: Armin Ardekani, Mohammad Akbari

Abstract:

We present a method of generating series solutions to large classes of nonlinear differential equations. The method is well suited to be adapted in mathematical software and unlike the available commercial solvers, we are capable of generating solutions to boundary value ODEs and PDEs. Many of the generated solutions converge to closed form solutions. Our method can also be applied to systems of ODEs or PDEs, providing all the solutions efficiently. As examples, we present results to many difficult differential equations in engineering fields.

Keywords: computational mathematics, differential equations, engineering, series

Procedia PDF Downloads 309
5814 The Active Subject and the Victim of Trafficking in Human Beings: Material and Procedural Criminal Law Approaches

Authors: Andrei Nastas, Sergiu Cernomopret

Abstract:

This research addresses trafficking in human beings, in terms of the active subject and the victim of this crime, through the prism of national and international regulations in material and procedural criminal matters. For the correlative approach of both mentioned aspects, the active subject and the victim of trafficking in human beings, the research addresses both its constituent elements and the way to prevent and combat this phenomenon through criminal proceedings. As follows, trafficking in human beings, from a material criminal point of view, involves two subjects of this crime (active subject - offender and passive subject - victim), while their procedural status differs depending on the case (victim or injured party). The result of the research highlights some clarifications, which find a theoretical-practical basis in the legal provisions, the specialized doctrine, and the judicial practice.

Keywords: victim, active subject, abuse, injured party, crime

Procedia PDF Downloads 93
5813 Automated Machine Learning Algorithm Using Recurrent Neural Network to Perform Long-Term Time Series Forecasting

Authors: Ying Su, Morgan C. Wang

Abstract:

Long-term time series forecasting is an important research area for automated machine learning (AutoML). Currently, forecasting based on either machine learning or statistical learning is usually built by experts, and it requires significant manual effort, from model construction, feature engineering, and hyper-parameter tuning to the construction of the time series model. Automation is not possible since there are too many human interventions. To overcome these limitations, this article proposed to use recurrent neural networks (RNN) through the memory state of RNN to perform long-term time series prediction. We have shown that this proposed approach is better than the traditional Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). In addition, we also found it is better than other network systems, including Fully Connected Neural Networks (FNN), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and Nonpooling Convolutional Neural Networks (NPCNN).

Keywords: automated machines learning, autoregressive integrated moving average, neural networks, time series analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 42
5812 Mechanistic Modelling to De-risk Process Scale-up

Authors: Edwin Cartledge, Jack Clark, Mazaher Molaei-Chalchooghi

Abstract:

The mixing in the crystallization step of active pharmaceutical ingredient manufacturers was studied via advanced modeling tools to enable a successful scale-up. A virtual representation of the vessel was created, and computational fluid dynamics were used to simulate multiphase flow and, thus, the mixing environment within this vessel. The study identified a significant dead zone in the vessel underneath the impeller and found that increasing the impeller speed and power did not improve the mixing. A series of sensitivity analyses found that to improve mixing, the vessel had to be redesigned, and found that optimal mixing could be obtained by adding two extra cylindrical baffles. The same two baffles from the simulated environment were then constructed and added to the process vessel. By identifying these potential issues before starting the manufacture and modifying the vessel to ensure good mixing, this study mitigated a failed crystallization and potential batch disposal, which could have resulted in a significant loss of high-value material.

Keywords: active pharmaceutical ingredient, baffles, computational fluid dynamics, mixing, modelling

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5811 Design of Active Power Filters for Harmonics on Power System and Reducing Harmonic Currents

Authors: Düzgün Akmaz, Hüseyin Erişti

Abstract:

In the last few years, harmonics have been occurred with the increasing use of nonlinear loads, and these harmonics have been an ever increasing problem for the line systems. This situation importantly affects the quality of power and gives large losses to the network. An efficient way to solve these problems is providing harmonic compensation through parallel active power filters. Many methods can be used in the control systems of the parallel active power filters which provide the compensation. These methods efficiently affect the performance of the active power filters. For this reason, the chosen control method is significant. In this study, Fourier analysis (FA) control method and synchronous reference frame (SRF) control method are discussed. These control methods are designed for both eliminate harmonics and perform reactive power compensation in MATLAB/Simulink pack program and are tested. The results have been compared for each two methods.

Keywords: parallel active power filters, harmonic compensation, power quality, harmonics

Procedia PDF Downloads 408
5810 An Improved Prediction Model of Ozone Concentration Time Series Based on Chaotic Approach

Authors: Nor Zila Abd Hamid, Mohd Salmi M. Noorani

Abstract:

This study is focused on the development of prediction models of the Ozone concentration time series. Prediction model is built based on chaotic approach. Firstly, the chaotic nature of the time series is detected by means of phase space plot and the Cao method. Then, the prediction model is built and the local linear approximation method is used for the forecasting purposes. Traditional prediction of autoregressive linear model is also built. Moreover, an improvement in local linear approximation method is also performed. Prediction models are applied to the hourly ozone time series observed at the benchmark station in Malaysia. Comparison of all models through the calculation of mean absolute error, root mean squared error and correlation coefficient shows that the one with improved prediction method is the best. Thus, chaotic approach is a good approach to be used to develop a prediction model for the Ozone concentration time series.

Keywords: chaotic approach, phase space, Cao method, local linear approximation method

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5809 Active Disturbance Rejection Control for Wind System Based on a DFIG

Authors: R. Chakib, A. Essadki, M. Cherkaoui

Abstract:

This paper proposes the study of a robust control of the doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) used in a wind energy production. The proposed control is based on the linear active disturbance rejection control (ADRC) and it is applied to the control currents rotor of the DFIG, the DC bus voltage and active and reactive power exchanged between the DFIG and the network. The system under study and the proposed control are simulated using MATLAB/SIMULINK.

Keywords: doubly fed induction generator (DFIG), active disturbance rejection control (ADRC), vector control, MPPT, extended state observer, back-to-back converter, wind turbine

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5808 Active Cyber Defense within the Concept of NATO’s Protection of Critical Infrastructures

Authors: Serkan Yağlı, Selçuk Dal

Abstract:

Cyber-attacks pose a serious threat to all states. Therefore, states constantly seek for various methods to encounter those threats. In addition, recent changes in the nature of cyber-attacks and their more complicated methods have created a new concept: active cyber defence (ACD). This article tries to answer firstly why ACD is important to NATO and find out the viewpoint of NATO towards ACD. Secondly, infrastructure protection is essential to cyber defence. Critical infrastructure protection with ACD means is even more important. It is assumed that by implementing active cyber defence, NATO may not only be able to repel the attacks but also be deterrent. Hence, the use of ACD has a direct positive effect in all international organizations’ future including NATO.

Keywords: active cyber defence, advanced persistent treat, critical infrastructure, NATO

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5807 Prediction of SOC Stock using ROTH-C Model and Mapping in Different Agroclimatic Zones of Tamil Nadu

Authors: R. Rajeswari

Abstract:

An investigation was carried out to know the SOC stock and its change over time in benchmark soils of different agroclimatic zones of Tamil Nadu. Roth.C model was used to assess SOC stock under existing and alternate cropping pattern. Soil map prepared on 1:50,000 scale from Natural Resources Information System (NRIS) employed under satellite data (IRS-1C/1D-PAN sharpened LISS-III image) was used to estimate SOC stock in different agroclimatic zones of Tamil Nadu. Fifteen benchmark soils were selected in different agroclimatic zones of Tamil Nadu based on their land use and the areal extent to assess SOC level and its change overtime. This revealed that, between eleven years of period (1997 - 2007). SOC buildup was higher in soils under horticulture system, followed by soils under rice cultivation. Among different agroclimatic zones of Tamil Nadu hilly zone have the highest SOC stock, followed by north eastern, southern, western, cauvery delta, north western, and high rainfall zone. Although organic carbon content in the soils of North eastern, southern, western, North western, Cauvery delta were less than high rainfall zone, the SOC stock was high. SOC density was higher in high rainfall and hilly zone than other agroclimatic zones of Tamil Nadu. Among low rainfall regions of Tamil Nadu cauvery delta zone recorded higher SOC density. Roth.C model was used to assess SOC stock under existing and alternate cropping pattern in viz., Periyanaickenpalayam series (western zone), Peelamedu series (southern zone), Vallam series (north eastern zone), Vannappatti series (north western zone) and Padugai series (cauvery delta zone). Padugai series recorded higher TOC, BIO, and HUM, followed by Periyanaickenpalayam series, Peelamedu series, Vallam series, and Vannappatti series. Vannappatti and Padugai series develop high TOC, BIO, and HUM under existing cropping pattern. Periyanaickenpalayam, Peelamedu, and Vallam series develop high TOC, BIO, and HUM under alternate cropping pattern. Among five selected soil series, Periyanaickenpalayam, Peelamedu, and Padugai series recorded 0.75 per cent TOC during 2025 and 2018, 2100 and 2035, 2013 and 2014 under existing and alternate cropping pattern, respectively.

Keywords: agro climatic zones, benchmark soil, land use, soil organic carbon

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5806 Computation of Induction Currents in a Set of Dendrites

Authors: R. B. Mishra, Sudhakar Tripathi

Abstract:

In this paper, the cable model of dendrites have been considered. The dendrites are cylindrical cables of various segments having variable length and reducing radius from start point at synapse and end points. For a particular event signal being received by a neuron in response only some dendrite are active at a particular instance. Initial current signals with different current flows in dendrite are assumed. Due to overlapping and coupling of active dendrite, they induce currents in the dendrite segments of each other at a particular instance. But how these currents are induced in the various segments of active dendrites due to coupling between these dendrites, It is not presented in the literature. Here the paper presents a model for induced currents in active dendrite segments due to mutual coupling at the starting instance of an activity in dendrite. The model is as discussed further.

Keywords: currents, dendrites, induction, simulation

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5805 Health of Riveted Joints with Active and Passive Structural Health Monitoring Techniques

Authors: Javad Yarmahmoudi, Alireza Mirzaee

Abstract:

Many active and passive structural health monitoring (SHM) techniques have been developed for detection of the defects of plates. Generally, riveted joints hold the plates together and their failure may create accidents. In this study, well known active and passive methods were modified for the evaluation of the health of the riveted joints between the plates. The active method generated Lamb waves and monitored their propagation by using lead zirconate titanate (PZT) disks. The signal was analyzed by using the wavelet transformations. The passive method used the Fiber Bragg Grating (FBG) sensors and evaluated the spectral characteristics of the signals by using Fast Fourier Transformation (FFT). The results indicated that the existing methods designed for the evaluation of the health of individual plates may be used for inspection of riveted joints with software modifications.

Keywords: structural health monitoring, SHM, active SHM, passive SHM, fiber bragg grating sensor, lead zirconate titanate, PZT

Procedia PDF Downloads 290
5804 Sliding Mode Controller for Active Suspension System on a Passenger Car Model

Authors: Nouby M. Ghazaly, Ahmed O. Moaaz, Mostafa Makrahy

Abstract:

The main purpose of a car suspension system is to reduce the vibrations resulting from road roughness. The main objective of this research paper is to decrease vibration and improve passenger comfort through controlling car suspension system using sliding mode control techniques. The mathematical model for passive and active suspensions systems for quarter car model which subject to excitation from different road profiles is obtained. The active suspension system is synthesized based on sliding mode control for a quarter car model. The performance of the sliding mode control is determined through computer simulations using MATLAB and SIMULINK toolbox. The simulated results plotted in time domain, and root mean square values. It is found that active suspension system using sliding mode control improves the ride comfort and decrease vibration.

Keywords: quarter car model, active suspension system, sliding mode control, road profile

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5803 Inflating the Public: A Series of Urban Interventions

Authors: Veronika Antoniou, Rene Carraz, Yiorgos Hadjichristou

Abstract:

The Green Urban Lab took the form of public installations that were placed at various locations in four cities in Cyprus. These installations - through which a series of events, activities, workshops and research took place - were the main tools in regenerating a series of urban public spaces in Cyprus. The purpose of this project was to identify issues and opportunities related to public space and to offer guidelines on how design and participatory democracy improvements could strengthen civil society, while raising the quality of the urban public scene. Giant inflatable structures were injected in important urban fragments in order to accommodate series of events. The design and playful installation generated a wide community engagement. The fluid presence of the installations acted as a catalyst for social interaction. They were accessed and viewed effortlessly and surprisingly, creating opportunities to rediscover public spaces.

Keywords: bottom-up initiatives, creativity, public space, social innovation, urban environments

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5802 Developing an Active Leisure Wear Range: A Dilemma for Khanna Enterprises

Authors: Jagriti Mishra, Vasundhara Chaudhary

Abstract:

Introduction: The case highlights various issues and challenges faced by Khanna Enterprises while conceptualizing and execution of launching Active Leisure wear in the domestic market, where different steps involved in the range planning and production have been elaborated. Although Khanna Enterprises was an established company which dealt in the production of knitted and woven garments, they took the risk of launching a new concept- Active Leisure wear for Millennials. Methodology: It is based on primary and secondary research where data collection has been done through survey, in-depth interviews and various reports, forecasts, and journals. Findings: The research through primary and secondary data and execution of active leisure wear substantiated the acceptance, not only by the millennials but also by the generation X. There was a demand of bigger sizes as well as more muted colours. Conclusion: The sales data paved the way for future product development in tune with the strengths of Khanna Enterprises.

Keywords: millennials, range planning, production, active leisure wear

Procedia PDF Downloads 180
5801 Active Flutter Suppression of Sports Aircraft Tailplane by Supplementary Control Surface

Authors: Aleš Kratochvíl, Svatomír Slavík

Abstract:

The paper presents an aircraft flutter suppression by active damping of supplementary control surface at trailing edge. The mathematical model of thin oscillation airfoil with control surface driven by pilot is developed. The supplementary control surface driven by control law is added. Active damping of flutter by several control law is present. The structural model of tailplane with an aerodynamic strip theory based on the airfoil model is developed by a finite element method. The optimization process of stiffens parameters is carried out to match the structural model with results from a ground vibration test of a small sport airplane. The implementation of supplementary control surface driven by control law is present. The active damping of tailplane model is shown.

Keywords: active damping, finite element method, flutter, tailplane model

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5800 Retrofitted Semi-Active Suspension System for a Eelectric Model Vehicle

Authors: Shiuh-Jer Huang, Yun-Han Yeh

Abstract:

A 40 steps manual adjusting shock absorber was refitted with DC motor driving mechanism to construct as a semi-active suspension system for a four-wheel drive electric vehicle. Accelerometer and potentiometer sensors are installed to measure the sprung mass acceleration and suspension system compression or rebound states for control purpose. A fuzzy logic controller was designed to derive appropriate damping target based on vehicle running condition for semi-active suspension system to follow. The damping ratio control of each wheel axis suspension system is executed with a robust fuzzy sliding mode controller (FSMC). Different road surface conditions are chosen to evaluate the control performance of this semi-active suspension system based on wheel axis acceleration signal.

Keywords: semi-active suspension, electric vehicle, fuzzy sliding mode control, accelerometer

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5799 Representation Data without Lost Compression Properties in Time Series: A Review

Authors: Nabilah Filzah Mohd Radzuan, Zalinda Othman, Azuraliza Abu Bakar, Abdul Razak Hamdan

Abstract:

Uncertain data is believed to be an important issue in building up a prediction model. The main objective in the time series uncertainty analysis is to formulate uncertain data in order to gain knowledge and fit low dimensional model prior to a prediction task. This paper discusses the performance of a number of techniques in dealing with uncertain data specifically those which solve uncertain data condition by minimizing the loss of compression properties.

Keywords: compression properties, uncertainty, uncertain time series, mining technique, weather prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 394
5798 Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Based on Fuzzy Logical Relationships, PSO Technique, and Automatic Clustering Algorithm

Authors: A. K. M. Kamrul Islam, Abdelhamid Bouchachia, Suang Cang, Hongnian Yu

Abstract:

Forecasting model has a great impact in terms of prediction and continues to do so into the future. Although many forecasting models have been studied in recent years, most researchers focus on different forecasting methods based on fuzzy time series to solve forecasting problems. The forecasted models accuracy fully depends on the two terms that are the length of the interval in the universe of discourse and the content of the forecast rules. Moreover, a hybrid forecasting method can be an effective and efficient way to improve forecasts rather than an individual forecasting model. There are different hybrids forecasting models which combined fuzzy time series with evolutionary algorithms, but the performances are not quite satisfactory. In this paper, we proposed a hybrid forecasting model which deals with the first order as well as high order fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization to improve the forecasted accuracy. The proposed method used the historical enrollments of the University of Alabama as dataset in the forecasting process. Firstly, we considered an automatic clustering algorithm to calculate the appropriate interval for the historical enrollments. Then particle swarm optimization and fuzzy time series are combined that shows better forecasting accuracy than other existing forecasting models.

Keywords: fuzzy time series (fts), particle swarm optimization, clustering algorithm, hybrid forecasting model

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5797 A Systematic Review of the Methodological and Reporting Quality of Case Series in Surgery

Authors: Riaz A. Agha, Alexander J. Fowler, Seon-Young Lee, Buket Gundogan, Katharine Whitehurst, Harkiran K. Sagoo, Kyung Jin Lee Jeong, Douglas G. Altman, Dennis P. Orgill

Abstract:

Introduction: Case Series are an important and common study type. Currently, no guideline exists for reporting case series and there is evidence of key data being missed from such reports. We propose to develop a reporting guideline for case series using a methodologically robust technique. The first step in this process is a systematic review of literature relevant to the reporting deficiencies of case series. Methods: A systematic review of methodological and reporting quality in surgical case series was performed. The electronic search strategy was developed by an information specialist and included MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Methods Register, Science Citation index and Conference Proceedings Citation index, from the start of indexing until 5th November 2014. Independent screening, eligibility assessments and data extraction was performed. Included articles were analyzed for five areas of deficiency: failure to use standardized definitions missing or selective data transparency or incomplete reporting whether alternate study designs were considered. Results: The database searching identified 2,205 records. Through the process of screening and eligibility assessments, 92 articles met inclusion criteria. Frequency of methodological and reporting issues identified was a failure to use standardized definitions (57%), missing or selective data (66%), transparency, or incomplete reporting (70%), whether alternate study designs were considered (11%) and other issues (52%). Conclusion: The methodological and reporting quality of surgical case series needs improvement. Our data shows that clear evidence-based guidelines for the conduct and reporting of a case series may be useful to those planning or conducting them.

Keywords: case series, reporting quality, surgery, systematic review

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5796 Using 'Know, Want to Know, Learned' Strategy to Enhance the Seventh C Grade Students' Reading Comprehension Achievement at SMPN 1 Mumbulsari

Authors: Abdul Rofiq Badril Rizal M. Z.

Abstract:

Reading becomes one of the most important skills in teaching and learning English. The purpose of this research was to improve the students' active participation, and reading comprehension achievement by using Know, Want to Know, Learned (KWL) strategy. The research design was Classroom Action Research. The area and participants of this research were chosen by using purposive method. The data were collected by observation, a reading comprehension test, interview, and documentation. The results showed that there was significant improvement in Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 of the research. In cycle 1, the students’ active participation increased 49.77% from 28% to 77.77. In addition, in cycle 2, the students’ active participation also increased by 14.17% from 77.77% to 81.94%. The students’ reading comprehension achievement also increased by 52.14% from 25% to 77.14% in Cycle 1 and increased by 5.71% from 77.14% to 82.85% in cycle 2. It indicated that using Know, Want to Know, Learned (KWL) strategy could enhance the Seventh C grade students’ descriptive text reading comprehension achievement, and active participation.

Keywords: active participation, reading comprehension, classroom action research, Indonesian folktales

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5795 Design of Electromagnetic Field of PMSG for VTOL Series-Hybrid UAV

Authors: Sooyoung Cho, In-Gun Kim, Hyun-Seok Hong, Dong-Woo Kang, Ju Lee

Abstract:

Series hybrid UAV(Unmanned aerial vehicle) that is proposed in this paper performs VTOL(Vertical take-off and landing) using the battery and generator, and it applies the series hybrid system with combination of the small engine and generator when cruising flight. This system can be described as the next-generation system that can dramatically increase the UAV flight times. Also, UAV systems require a large energy at the time of VTOL to be conducted for a short time. Therefore, this paper designs PMSG(Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator) having a high specific power considering VTOL through the FEA.

Keywords: PMSG, VTOL, UAV, high specific power density

Procedia PDF Downloads 484