Search results for: scoring based risk assessment method

Authors: Mladen Hraste, Igor Jelaska, Ivan Granic

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The scope of this research is the identification and explanation of differences of three levels of water polo players in some parameters of effectiveness. The sample for this study was 132 matches of the Adriatic Water Polo League in the 2013/14 competition season. Using the Kruskal-Wallis test and multiple comparisons of mean ranks for all groups at the significance level of α=0, 05, the hypothesis that there are significant differences between groups of respondents in ten of the seventeen variables of effectiveness was confirmed. There is a reasonable possibility that the differences are caused by the degree of learned and implemented tactical knowledge, the degree of scoring ability and the best selection for certain roles in the team. The results of this study can be applied to selection of teams and players, for the selection of the appropriate match concept and for organizing training process.

Keywords: scoring abilities, selection, tactical knowledge, water polo effectiveness

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Authors: M. Zeitoun, K. Abdallah, M. Rashwan

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Introduction: A growing body of evidence indicates that apelin, a relatively recent member of the adipokines family, has a potential anti-atherogenic effect. An association between low serum apelin state and coronary artery disease (CAD) was previously reported; however, the relationship between apelin and the atherosclerotic burden was unclear. Objectives: Our aim was to explore the correlation of serum apelin level with coronary calcium score (CCS) as a quantitative marker of coronary atherosclerosis. Methods: This observational cross-sectional study enrolled 100 consecutive subjects referred for cardiac multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT) for assessment of CAD (mean age 54 ± 9.7 years, 51 male and 49 females). Clinical parameters, glycemic and lipid profile, high sensitivity CRP (hsCRP), homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), serum creatinine and complete blood count were assessed. Serum apelin levels were determined using a commercially available Enzyme Immunoassay (EIA) Kit. High-resolution non-contrast CT images were acquired by a 64-raw MDCT and CCS was calculated using the Agatston scoring method. Results: Forty-three percent of the studied subjects had positive coronary artery calcification (CAC). The mean CCS was 79 ± 196.5 Agatston units. Subjects with detectable CAC had significantly higher fasting plasma glucose, HbA1c, and WBCs count than subjects without detectable CAC (p < 0.05). Most importantly, subjects with detectable CAC had significantly lower serum apelin level than subjects without CAC (1.3 ± 0.4 ng/ml vs. 2.8 ± 0.6 ng/ml, p < 0.001). In addition, there was a statistically significant inverse correlation between serum apelin levels and CCS (r = 0.591, p < 0.001); on multivariate analysis this correlation was found to be independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors and hs-CRP. Conclusion:To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of an independent association between apelin and CCS in patients with suspected CAD. Apelin emerges as a possible novel biomarker for CAD, but this result remains to be proved prospectively.

Keywords: HbA1c, apelin, adipokines, coronary calcium score (CCS), coronary artery disease (CAD)

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Authors: Josué Alfredo Tomas Machaca Fajardo, Jhon Elvis Chahua Janampa, Pedro Rau Lavado

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A flood vulnerability index was developed for the Piura River watershed in northern Peru using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to assess flood risk. The official methodology to assess risk from natural hazards in Peru was introduced in 1980 and proved effective for aiding complex decision-making. This method relies in part on decision-makers defining subjective correlations between variables to identify high-risk areas. While risk identification and ensuing response activities benefit from a qualitative understanding of influences, this method does not take advantage of the advent of national and international data collection efforts, which can supplement our understanding of risk. Furthermore, this method does not take advantage of broadly applied statistical methods such as PCA, which highlight central indicators of vulnerability. Nowadays, information processing is much faster and allows for more objective decision-making tools, such as PCA. The approach presented here develops a tool to improve the current flood risk assessment in the Peruvian basin. Hence, the spatial analysis of the census and other datasets provides a better understanding of the current land occupation and a basin-wide distribution of services and human populations, a necessary step toward ultimately reducing flood risk in Peru. PCA allows the simplification of a large number of variables into a few factors regarding social, economic, physical and environmental dimensions of vulnerability. There is a correlation between the location of people and the water availability mainly found in rivers. For this reason, a comprehensive vision of the population location around the river basin is necessary to establish flood prevention policies. The grouping of 5x5 km gridded areas allows the spatial analysis of flood risk rather than assessing political divisions of the territory. The index was applied to the Peruvian region of Piura, where several flood events occurred in recent past years, being one of the most affected regions during the ENSO events in Peru. The analysis evidenced inequalities for the access to basic services, such as water, electricity, internet and sewage, between rural and urban areas.

Keywords: assess risk, flood risk, indicators of vulnerability, principal component analysis

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Authors: Chana Pavneet

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Background: In more recent years in dentistry, a greater emphasis has been placed on competency-based education (CBE) programmes. Undergraduate and postgraduate curriculums have been reformed to reflect these changes, and adopting a CBE approach has shown to be beneficial to trainees and places an emphasis on continuous lifelong learning. The literature is vast; however, very little work has been done specifically to the assessment of competence in dentistry and even less so in oral surgery. The majority of the literature tends to opinion pieces. Some small-scale studies have been undertaken in this area researching assessment tools which can be used to assess competence in oral surgery. However, there is a lack of general consensus on the preferable assessment methods. The aim of this review is to identify the assessment methods available and their usefulness. Methods: Electronic databases (Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Database of systematic reviews) were searched. PRISMA guidelines were followed to identify relevant papers. Abstracts of studies were reviewed, and if they met the inclusion criteria, they were included in the review. Papers were reviewed against the critical appraisal skills programme (CASP) checklist and medical education research quality instrument (MERQSI) to assess their quality and identify any bias in a systematic manner. The validity and reliability of each assessment method or tool were assessed. Results: A number of assessment methods were identified, including self-assessment, peer assessment, and direct observation of skills by someone senior. Senior assessment tended to be the preferred method, followed by self-assessment and, finally, peer assessment. The level of training was shown to affect the preferred assessment method, with one study finding peer assessment more useful in postgraduate trainees as opposed to undergraduate trainees. Numerous tools for assessment were identified, including a checklist scale and a global rating scale. Both had their strengths and weaknesses, but the evidence was more favourable for global rating scales in terms of reliability, applicability to more clinical situations, and easier to use for examiners. Studies also looked into trainees’ opinions on assessment tools. Logbooks were not found to be significant in measuring the competence of trainees. Conclusion: There is limited literature exploring the methods and tools which assess the competence of oral surgery trainees. Current evidence shows that the most favourable assessment method and tool may differ depending on the stage of training. More research is required in this area to streamline assessment methods and tools.

Keywords: competence, oral surgery, assessment, trainees, education

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Authors: Rami S. Alasmari, Abdullah Al Zahrani, Hattan A. Hassani, Hattan A. Hassani, Nawwaf A. Almalky, Abdullah F. Bokhari, Alwalied A. Hafez

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Diabetes mellitus type 2 (DMT2) is a major chronic condition that is considered common among elderly people, with multiple potential complications that could contribute to falls. However, this concept is not well understood, thus, the aim of this study is to determine whether diabetes is an independent risk factor for falls in elderly. In this observational cross-sectional study, 309 diabetic patients aged 60 or more who visited the primary healthcare centers of the Ministry of National Guard Health Affairs in Jeddah were chosen via convenience sampling method. To collect the data, Semi-structured Fall Risk Assessment questionnaire and Fall Efficacy Score scale were used. The mean age of the participants was estimated to be 68.5 (SD:7.4) years. Among the participants, 48.2% experienced falling before, and 63.1% of them suffered falls in the past 12-months. The results showed that gait problems were independently associated with a higher likelihood of fall among the elderly patients (OR = 1.98, 95%CI, 1.08 to 3.62, p = 0.026. This paper suggests that diabetes mellitus is an independent fall risk factor among elderly. Therefore, identifying such patients as being at higher risk and prompt referral to a specialist falls clinic is recommended.

Keywords: diabetes, fall, elderly, risk factors

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Authors: Jayaletchumi T. Sambantha Moorthy, Suhaimi bin Ibrahim, Mohd Naz’ri Mahrin

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Most quality models have defined usability as a significant factor that leads to improving product acceptability, increasing user satisfaction, improving product reliability, and also financially benefiting companies. Usability is also the best factor that acts as a balance for both the technical and human aspects of a software product, which is an important aspect in defining quality during software development process. A usability risk can be defined as a potential usability risk factor that a chosen action or activity may lead to a possible loss or an undesirable outcome. This could impact the usability of a software product thereby contributing to negative user experiences and causing a possible software product failure. Hence, it is important to mitigate and reduce usability risks in the software development process itself. By managing possible involved usability risks in software development process, failure of software product could be reduced. Therefore, this research uses the Delphi method to identify mitigation plans to reduce potential usability risks. The Delphi method is conducted with seven experts from the field of risk management and software development.

Keywords: usability, usability risk, risk management, risk mitigation, delphi study

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Authors: Nur Amalina Dayana Abd Aziz

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Assessment is an integral part of teaching and learning in any syllabus in the world. Recently, a new assessment system, School-Based Assessment (SBA) was introduced and implemented in the Malaysian education system to promote a more holistic, integrated and balanced assessment system. This effort is part of the reformation made in the Government Transformation Plan (GTP) to produce a world-class human capital as we are reaching and achieving the Vision 2020 in the near future. However, this new change has raised awareness and concerns from teachers, students, parents and non-profit organizations on how the new assessment is to be implemented and how it is affecting the students and teachers particularly. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the issues that teachers face in implementing SBA in primary schools, the measures taken to address the issues and to propose ways of managing school-based assessment. Five national primary schools focusing in the urban areas in the Selangor state are chosen for this study to carry out. Data for the study will be gathered from interviews with teachers from each school, surveys and classrooms observation will be conducted in each school, and relevant documents are collected from the selected schools. The findings of this study will present the current issues that teachers from various types of national primary schools are facing and what actions they took to overcome the problems in carrying out SBA. Suggestions on how to better manage school-based assessment for teachers are also provided in this paper.

Keywords: community of practice, curriculum, managing change, school-based assessment

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Authors: Hamad Almebayedh, Chuxia Lin, Yu wang

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The environmental impact assessment (EIA) must be improved, assessed, and quality checked for human and environmental health and safety. Soil contamination is expanding, and sites and soil remediation activities proceeding around the word which simplifies the answer “quality soil characterization” will lead to “quality EIA” to illuminate the contamination level and extent and reveal the unknown for the way forward to remediate, countifying, containing, minimizing and eliminating the environmental damage. Spatial interpolation methods play a significant role in decision making, planning remediation strategies, environmental management, and risk assessment, as it provides essential elements towards site characterization, which need to be informed into the EIA. The Innovative 3D soil mapping and soil characterization technology presented in this research paper reveal the unknown information and the extent of the contaminated soil in specific and enhance soil characterization information in general which will be reflected in improving the information provided in developing the EIA related to specific sites. The foremost aims of this research paper are to present novel 3D mapping technology to quality and cost-effectively characterize and estimate the distribution of key soil characteristics in contaminated sites and develop Innovative process/procedure “assessment measures” for EIA quality and assessment. The contaminated site and field investigation was conducted by innovative 3D mapping technology to characterize the composition of petroleum hydrocarbons contaminated soils in a decommissioned oilfield waste pit in Kuwait. The results show the depth and extent of the contamination, which has been interred into a developed assessment process and procedure for the EIA quality review checklist to enhance the EIA and drive remediation and risk assessment strategies. We have concluded that to minimize the possible adverse environmental impacts on the investigated site in Kuwait, the soil-capping approach may be sufficient and may represent a cost-effective management option as the environmental risk from the contaminated soils is considered to be relatively low. This research paper adopts a multi-method approach involving reviewing the existing literature related to the research area, case studies, and computer simulation.

Keywords: quality EIA, spatial interpolation, soil characterization, contaminated site

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Authors: Henry Lau, Dilupa Nakandala, Li Zhao

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In today’s business, it is well-recognized that risk is an important factor that needs to be taken into consideration before a decision is made. Studies indicate that both the number of risks faced by organizations and their potential consequences are growing. Supply chain risk management has become one of the major concerns for practitioners and researchers. Supply chain leaders and scholars are now focusing on the importance of managing supply chain risk. In order to meet the challenge of managing and mitigating supply chain risk (SCR), we must first identify the different dimensions of SCR and assess its relevant probability and severity. SCR has been classified in many different ways, and there are no consistently accepted dimensions of SCRs and several different classifications are reported in the literature. Basically, supply chain risks can be classified into two dimensions namely disruption risk and operational risk. Disruption risks are those caused by events such as bankruptcy, natural disasters and terrorist attack. Operational risks are related to supply and demand coordination and uncertainty, such as uncertain demand and uncertain supply. Disruption risks are rare but severe and hard to manage, while operational risk can be reduced through effective SCM activities. Other SCRs include supply risk, process risk, demand risk and technology risk. In fact, the disorganized classification of SCR has created confusion for SCR scholars. Moreover, practitioners need to identify and assess SCR. As such, it is important to have an overarching framework tying all these SCR dimensions together for two reasons. First, it helps researchers use these terms for communication of ideas based on the same concept. Second, a shared understanding of the SCR dimensions will support the researchers to focus on the more important research objective: operationalization of SCR, which is very important for assessing SCR. In general, fresh food supply chain is subject to certain level of risks, such as supply risk (low quality, delivery failure, hot weather etc.) and demand risk (season food imbalance, new competitors). Effective strategies to mitigate fresh food supply chain risk are required to enhance operations. Before implementing effective mitigation strategies, we need to identify the risk sources and evaluate the risk level. However, assessing the supply chain risk is not an easy matter, and existing research mainly use qualitative method, such as risk assessment matrix. To address the relevant issues, this paper aims to analyze the risk factor of the fresh food supply chain using an approach comprising both fuzzy logic and hierarchical holographic modeling techniques. This novel approach is able to take advantage the benefits of both of these well-known techniques and at the same time offset their drawbacks in certain aspects. In order to develop this integrated approach, substantial research work is needed to effectively combine these two techniques in a seamless way, To validate the proposed integrated approach, a case study in a fresh food supply chain company was conducted to verify the feasibility of its functionality in a real environment.

Keywords: fresh food supply chain, fuzzy logic, hierarchical holographic modelling, operationalization, supply chain risk

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Authors: Yuexin Liu, Gordon B. Mills, Russell R. Broaddus, John N. Weinstein

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The lethality of endometrioid endometrial cancer (EEC) is primarily attributable to the high-stage diseases. However, there are no available biomarkers that predict EEC patient staging at the time of diagnosis. We aim to develop a predictive scheme to help in this regards. Using reverse-phase protein array expression profiles for 210 EEC cases from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), we constructed a Protein Scoring of EEC Staging (PSES) scheme for surgical stage prediction. We validated and evaluated its diagnostic potential in an independent cohort of 184 EEC cases obtained at MD Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) using receiver operating characteristic curve analyses. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to examine the association of PSES score with patient outcome, and Ingenuity pathway analysis was used to identify relevant signaling pathways. Two-sided statistical tests were used. PSES robustly distinguished high- from low-stage tumors in the TCGA cohort (area under the ROC curve [AUC]=0.74; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.68 to 0.82) and in the validation cohort (AUC=0.67; 95% CI, 0.58 to 0.76). Even among grade 1 or 2 tumors, PSES was significantly higher in high- than in low-stage tumors in both the TCGA (P = 0.005) and MDACC (P = 0.006) cohorts. Patients with positive PSES score had significantly shorter progression-free survival than those with negative PSES in the TCGA (hazard ratio [HR], 2.033; 95% CI, 1.031 to 3.809; P = 0.04) and validation (HR, 3.306; 95% CI, 1.836 to 9.436; P = 0.0007) cohorts. The ErbB signaling pathway was most significantly enriched in the PSES proteins and downregulated in high-stage tumors. PSES may provide clinically useful prediction of high-risk tumors and offer new insights into tumor biology in EEC.

Keywords: endometrial carcinoma, protein, protein scoring of EEC staging (PSES), stage

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Authors: Xiaodong Li, Peng Gao, Chao-Jung Huang, Shiying Hao, Xuefeng B. Ling, Yongxia Han, Yaqi Zhang, Le Zheng, Chengyin Ye, Modi Liu, Minjie Xia, Changlin Fu, Bo Jin, Karl G. Sylvester, Eric Widen

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Predicting the risk of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma (PA) in advance can benefit the quality of care and potentially reduce population mortality and morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and prospectively validate a risk prediction model to identify patients at risk of new incident PA as early as 3 months before the onset of PA in a statewide, general population in Maine. The PA prediction model was developed using Deep Neural Networks, a deep learning algorithm, with a 2-year electronic-health-record (EHR) cohort. Prospective results showed that our model identified 54.35% of all inpatient episodes of PA, and 91.20% of all PA that required subsequent chemoradiotherapy, with a lead-time of up to 3 months and a true alert of 67.62%. The risk assessment tool has attained an improved discriminative ability. It can be immediately deployed to the health system to provide automatic early warnings to adults at risk of PA. It has potential to identify personalized risk factors to facilitate customized PA interventions.

Keywords: cancer prediction, deep learning, electronic health records, pancreatic adenocarcinoma

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Authors: Agnieszka A. Malinowska, R. Hejmanowski

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A number of European cities are strongly affected by ground movements caused by anthropogenic activities or post-anthropogenic metamorphosis. Those are mainly water pumping, current mining operation, the collapse of post-mining underground voids or mining-induced earthquakes. These activities lead to large and small-scale ground displacements and a ground ruptures. The ground movements occurring in urban areas could considerably affect stability and safety of structures and infrastructures. The complexity of the ground deformation phenomenon in relation to the structures and infrastructures vulnerability leads to considerable constraints in assessing the threat of those objects. However, the increase of access to the free software and satellite data could pave the way for developing new methods and strategies for environmental risk mitigation and management. Open source geographical information systems (OS GIS), may support data integration, management, and risk analysis. Lately, developed methods based on fuzzy logic and experts methods for buildings and infrastructure damage risk assessment could be integrated into OS GIS. Those methods were verified base on back analysis proving their accuracy. Moreover, those methods could be supported by ground displacement observation. Based on freely available data from European Space Agency and free software, ground deformation could be estimated. The main innovation presented in the paper is the application of open source software (OS GIS) for integration developed models and assessment of the threat of urban areas. Those approaches will be reinforced by analysis of ground movement based on free satellite data. Those data would support the verification of ground movement prediction models. Moreover, satellite data will enable our mapping of ground deformation in urbanized areas. Developed models and methods have been implemented in one of the urban areas hazarded by underground mining activity. Vulnerability maps supported by satellite ground movement observation would mitigate the hazards of land displacements in urban areas close to mines.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, open source geographic information science (OS GIS), risk assessment on urbanized areas, satellite interferometry (InSAR)

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Authors: Jessica Bain, Greg Thoma, Marty Matlock, Jeyam Subbiah, Ebenezer Kwofie

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The environmental impact and particulate matter emissions (PM) associated with the production and packaging of 1 kg of almonds were evaluated using life cycle assessment (LCA). The assessment began at the point of ready to harvest with a system boundary was a cradle-to-gate assessment of almond packaging in California. The assessment included three scenarios of off-ground harvesting of almonds. The three general off-ground harvesting scenarios with variations include the harvested almonds solar dried on a paper tarp in the orchard, the harvested almonds solar dried on the floor in a separate lot, and the harvested almonds dried mechanically. The life cycle inventory (LCI) data for almond production were based on previously published literature and data provided by Almond Board of California (ABC). The ReCiPe 2016 method was used to calculate the midpoint impacts. Using consequential LCA model, the global warming potential (GWP) for the three harvesting scenarios are 2.90, 2.86, and 3.09 kg CO2 eq/ kg of packaged almond for scenarios 1, 2a, and 3a, respectively. The global warming potential for conventional harvesting method was 2.89 kg CO2 eq/ kg of packaged almond. The particulate matter emissions for each scenario per hectare for each off-ground harvesting scenario is 77.14, 9.56, 66.86, and 8.75 for conventional harvesting and scenarios 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The most significant contributions to the overall emissions were from almond production. The farm gate almond production had a global warming potential of 2.12 kg CO2 eq/ kg of packaged almond, approximately 73% of the overall emissions. Based on comparisons between the GWP and PM emissions, scenario 2a was the best tradeoff between GHG and PM production.

Keywords: life cycle assessment, low moisture foods, sustainability, LCA

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Authors: Wang Yichen, Haruka Yamashita

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In recent years, in the field of sports, decision making such as member in the game and strategy of the game based on then analysis of the accumulated sports data are widely attempted. In fact, in the NBA basketball league where the world's highest level players gather, to win the games, teams analyze the data using various statistical techniques. However, it is difficult to analyze the game data for each play such as the ball tracking or motion of the players in the game, because the situation of the game changes rapidly, and the structure of the data should be complicated. Therefore, it is considered that the analysis method for real time game play data is proposed. In this research, we propose an analytical model for "determining the optimal lineup composition" using the real time play data, which is considered to be difficult for all coaches. In this study, because replacing the entire lineup is too complicated, and the actual question for the replacement of players is "whether or not the lineup should be changed", and “whether or not Small Ball lineup is adopted”. Therefore, we propose an analytical model for the optimal player selection problem based on Small Ball lineups. In basketball, we can accumulate scoring data for each play, which indicates a player's contribution to the game, and the scoring data can be considered as a time series data. In order to compare the importance of players in different situations and lineups, we combine RNN (Recurrent Neural Network) model, which can analyze time series data, and NN (Neural Network) model, which can analyze the situation on the field, to build the prediction model of score. This model is capable to identify the current optimal lineup for different situations. In this research, we collected all the data of accumulated data of NBA from 2019-2020. Then we apply the method to the actual basketball play data to verify the reliability of the proposed model.

Keywords: recurrent neural network, players lineup, basketball data, decision making model

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Authors: Olor Obi, Ishiekwen Bridget, Ekpeyong Edom

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Even though gout is becoming more common, the role of dietary risk factors in the development and management of this condition remains unclear. Therefore, this review work will aim at clarifying the role of dietary factors in the risk and management of gout. An extensive search of literature published between 1960 and 2018 will be performed on the databases of PubMed, CINAHL, Science Direct, Cochrane, BMJ, Ann Rheum Dis, and BioMed to identify relevant cohort, prospective, population-based, or cross-sectional studies that examined the effect of diet on gout. About 19 studies will be included in this review work. The methodological quality of these studies will be evaluated using the quality assessment tool for observational and cross-sectional studies developed by the National Heart, Lungs, and Blood Institute. This work intends to reveal that a positive association exists between the intake of sugary, sweetened beverages and the risk of gout. It will also reveal the relationship between the increase in coffee consumption and the risk of gout.

Keywords: gout, dietary factors, management of gout, gouty arthritis

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Authors: Jose A. Diaz-Olivares, Nafise Mahdavian, Farhad Abtahi, Kaj Lindecrantz, Abdelakram Hafid, Fernando Seoane

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Despite new recommendations and guidelines for the evaluation of occupational risk assessments and their prevention, work-related musculoskeletal disorders are still one of the biggest causes of work activity disruption, productivity loss, sick leave and chronic work disability. It affects millions of workers throughout Europe, with a large-scale economic and social burden. These specific efforts have failed to produce significant results yet, probably due to the limited availability and high costs of occupational risk assessment at work, especially when the methods are complex, consume excessive resources or depend on self-evaluations and observations of poor accuracy. To overcome these limitations, a pervasive system of risk assessment tools in real time has been developed, which has the characteristics of a systematic approach, with good precision, usability and resource efficiency, essential to facilitate the prevention of musculoskeletal disorders in the long term. The system allows the combination of different wearable sensors, placed on different limbs, to be used for data collection and evaluation by a software solution, according to the needs and requirements in each individual working environment. This is done in a non-disruptive manner for both the occupational health expert and the workers. The creation of this solution allows us to attend different research activities that require, as an essential starting point, the recording of data with ergonomic value of very diverse origin, especially in real work environments. The software platform is here presented with a complimentary smart clothing system for data acquisition, comprised of a T-shirt containing inertial measurement units (IMU), a vest sensorized with textile electronics, a wireless electrocardiogram (ECG) and thoracic electrical bio-impedance (TEB) recorder and a glove sensorized with variable resistors, dependent on the angular position of the wrist. The collected data is processed in real-time through a mobile application software solution, implemented in commercially available Android-based smartphones and tablet platforms. Based on the collection of this information and its analysis, real-time risk assessment and feedback about postural improvement is possible, adapted to different contexts. The result is a tool which provides added value to ergonomists and occupational health agents, as in situ analysis of postural behavior can assist in a quantitative manner in the evaluation of work techniques and the occupational environment.

Keywords: ergonomics, mobile technologies, risk assessment, smart textiles

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Authors: Sujesh F. Sujan, Steve W. Jones, Arto Kiviniemi

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The use of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in the Architectural-Engineering-Construction (AEC) industry is a form of systemic innovation. Unlike incremental innovation, (such as the technological development of CAD from hand based drawings to 2D electronically printed drawings) any form of systemic innovation in Project-Based Inter-Organisational Networks requires complete collaboration and results in numerous benefits if adopted and utilised properly. Proper use of BIM involves people collaborating with the use of interoperable BIM compliant tools. The AEC industry globally has been known for its adversarial and fragmented nature where firms take advantage of one another to increase their own profitability. Due to the industry’s nature, getting people to collaborate by unifying their goals is critical to successful BIM adoption. However, this form of innovation is often being forced artificially in the old ways of working which do not suit collaboration. This may be one of the reasons for its low global use even though the technology was developed more than 20 years ago. Therefore, there is a need to develop a metric/method to support and allow industry players to gain confidence in their investment into BIM software and workflow methods. This paper departs from defining systemic risk as a risk that affects all the project participants at a given stage of a project and defines categories of systemic risks. The need to generalise is to allow method applicability to any industry where the category will be the same, but the example of the risk will depend on the industry the study is done in. The method proposed seeks to use individual perception of an example of systemic risk as a key parameter. The significance of this study lies in relating the variance of individual perception of systemic risk to how much the team is collaborating. The method bases its notions on the claim that a more unified range of individual perceptions would mean a higher probability that the team is collaborating better. Since contracts and procurement devise how a project team operates, the method could also break the methodological barrier of highly subjective findings that case studies inflict, which has limited the possibility of generalising between global industries. Since human nature applies in all industries, the authors’ intuition is that perception can be a valuable parameter to study collaboration which is essential especially in projects that utilise systemic innovation such as BIM.

Keywords: building information modelling, perception of risk, systemic innovation, team collaboration

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Authors: Shannon L. Stewart, Ashley Toohey, Natalia Lapshina

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There is a well-established relationship between childhood maltreatment and negative outcomes (e.g., physical and mental health problems, social skill deficits, poor quality of life). The goal of this study was to examine the relationship between polyvictimization (multiple types of trauma) and risk of harm to self and others, taking into account possible age and sex differences. A total of 8980 children and youth were recruited from over 50 mental health facilities across Ontario, Canada. Among this sample, 29% of children and youth had experienced polyvictimization. Results showed that female children and youth who had experienced trauma were at greater risk of harm to themselves, while their male counterparts were at greater risk of harming others. Further, findings from this study highlight that experiencing polyvictimization, regardless of age or sex, increased the risk of harm to self and others. These findings add to extant literature as to the cumulative relationship between polyvictimization and risk in relation to harming oneself or others. Further, results from this study have significant implications for assessment and care-planning for those children and youth presenting with a trauma background.

Keywords: children's mental health, polyvictimization, risk of harm, sex differences

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Authors: T. Penkova, A. Korobko, V. Nicheporchuk, L. Nozhenkova, A. Metus

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This paper presents an approach of on-line control of the state of technosphere and environment objects based on the integration of Data Warehouse, OLAP and Expert systems technologies. It looks at the structure and content of data warehouse that provides consolidation and storage of monitoring data. There is a description of OLAP-models that provide a multidimensional analysis of monitoring data and dynamic analysis of principal parameters of controlled objects. The authors suggest some criteria of emergency risk assessment using expert knowledge about danger levels. It is demonstrated now some of the proposed solutions could be adopted in territorial decision making support systems. Operational control allows authorities to detect threat, prevent natural and anthropogenic emergencies and ensure a comprehensive safety of territory.

Keywords: decision making support systems, emergency risk assessment, natural and anthropogenic safety, on-line control, territory

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Authors: Romeo A. Botes, Imelda Smit

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The demands of an ever changing and complex higher education environment, along with the profile of modern learners challenge current approaches to assessment and feedback. More learners enter the education system every year. The younger generation expects immediate feedback. At the same time, feedback should be meaningful. The assessment of practical activities in programming poses a particular problem, since both lecturers and learners in the information and computer science discipline acknowledge that paper-based assessment for programming subjects lacks meaningful real-life testing. At the same time, feedback lacks promptness, consistency, comprehensiveness and individualisation. Most of these aspects may be addressed by modern, technology-assisted assessment. The focus of this paper is the continuous development of an artefact that is used to assist the lecturer in the assessment and feedback of practical programming activities in a senior database programming class. The artefact was developed using three Design Science Research cycles. The first implementation allowed one programming activity submission per assessment intervention. This pilot provided valuable insight into the obstacles regarding the implementation of this type of assessment tool. A second implementation improved the initial version to allow multiple programming activity submissions per assessment. The focus of this version is on providing scaffold feedback to the learner – allowing improvement with each subsequent submission. It also has a built-in capability to provide the lecturer with information regarding the key problem areas of each assessment intervention.

Keywords: programming, computer-aided assessment, technology-assisted assessment, programming assessment software, design science research, mixed-method

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Authors: S. M. A. Ismail, M. I. Ibrahim, H. Masdar, F. M. Effendi, M. F. Suhaimi, A. Suun

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Introduction: It is generally known that the rehabilitation process is as important as the reconstruction surgery. Several literature has focused on how early the rehabilitation modalities can be initiated after the surgery to ensure a safe return of patients to sports or at least regaining the pre-injury level of function following an ACL reconstruction. Objectives: The main objective is to study and evaluate the outcome of early balance exercises and agility training in sports rehabilitation for patients post ACL reconstruction. To compare between early balance exercises and agility training as intervention and control. (material or non-material). All of them were recruited for material exercise (balance exercises and agility training with strengthening) and strengthening only rehabilitation protocol (non-material). Followed the prospective intervention trial. Materials and Methods: Post-operative ACL reconstruction patients performed in Selayang and Sg Buloh Hospitals from 2012 to 2014 were selected for this study. They were taken from Malaysian Knee Ligament Registry (MKLR) and all patients had single bundle reconstruction with autograft hamstring tendon (semitendinosus and gracilis). ACL injury from any type of sports were included. Subjects performed various type of physical activity for rehabilitation in every 18 week for a different type of rehab activity. All subject attended all 18 sessions of rehabilitation exercises and evaluation was done during the first, 9th and 18th session. Evaluation format were based on clinical assessment (anterior drawer, Lachmann, pivot shift, laxity with rolimeter, the end point and thigh circumference) and scoring (Lysholm Knee scoring and Tegner Activity Level scale). Rehabilitation protocol initiated from 24 week after the surgery. Evaluation format were based on clinical assessment (anterior drawer, Lachmann, pivot shift, laxity with rolimeter, the end point and thigh circumference) and scoring (Lysholm Knee scoring and Tegner Activity Level scale). Results and Discussion: 100 patients were selected of which 94 patients are male and 6 female. Age range is 18 to 54 year with the average of 28 years old for included 100 patients. All patients are evaluated after 24 week after the surgery. 50 of them were recruited for material exercise (balance exercises and agility training with strengthening) and 50 for strengthening only rehabilitation protocol (non-material). Demographically showed 85% suffering sports injury mainly from futsal and football. 39 % of them have abnormal BMI (26 – 38) and involving of the left knee. 100% of patient had the basic radiographic x-ray of knee and 98% had MRI. All patients had negative anterior drawer’s, Lachman test and Pivot shift test during the post ACL reconstruction after the complete rehabilitation. There was 95 subject sustained grade I injury, 5 of grade II and 0 of grade III with 90% of them had soft end-point. Overall they scored badly on presentation with 53% of Lysholm score (poor) and Tegner activity score level 3/10. After completing 9 weeks of exercises, of material group 90% had grade I laxity, 75% with firm end-point, Lysholm score 71% (fair) and Tegner activity level 5/10 comparing non-material group who had 62% of grade I laxity , 54% of firm end-point, Lyhslom score 62 % (poor) and Tegner activity level 4/10. After completed 18 weeks of exercises, of material group maintained 90% grade I laxity with 100 % with firm end-point, Lysholm score increase 91% (excellent) and Tegner activity level 7/10 comparing non-material group who had 69% of grade I laxity but maintained 54% of firm end-point, Lysholm score 76% (fair) and Tegner activity level 5/10. These showed the improvement were achieved fast on material group who have achieved satisfactory level after 9th cycle of exercises 75% (15/20) comparing non-material group who only achieved 54% (7/13) after completed 18th session. Most of them were grade I. These concepts are consolidated into our approach to prepare patients for return to play including field testing and maintenance training. Conclusions: The basic approach in ACL rehabilitation is to ensure return to sports at post-operative 6 month. Grade I and II laxity has favourable and early satisfactory outcome base on clinical assessment and Lysholm and Tegner scoring point. Reduction of laxity grading indicates satisfactory outcome. Firm end-point showed the adequacy of rehabilitation before starting previous sports game. Material exercise (balance exercises and agility training with strengthening) were beneficial and reliable in order to achieve favourable and early satisfactory outcome comparing strengthening only (non-material).We have identified that rehabilitation protocol varies between different patients. Therefore future post ACL reconstruction rehabilitation guidelines should look into focusing on rehabilitation techniques instead of time.

Keywords: post anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction, single bundle, hamstring tendon, sports rehabilitation, balance exercises, agility balance

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Authors: Shofiayuningtyas Luftiani

Abstract:

Some private schools in Indonesia started integrating the online program Gizmos in the teaching-learning process. Gizmos was developed to supplement the existing curriculum by integrating it into the instructional programs. The program has some features using an inquiry-based simulation, in which students conduct exploration by using a worksheet while teachers use the teacher guidelines to direct and assess students’ performance In this study, the discussion about Gizmos highlights its features as the assessment media of mathematics learning for secondary school students. The discussion is based on the case study and literature review from the Indonesian context. The purpose of applying Gizmos as an assessment media refers to the diagnostic assessment. As a part of the diagnostic assessment, the teachers review the student exploration sheet, analyze particularly in the students’ difficulties and consider findings in planning future learning process. This assessment becomes important since the teacher needs the data about students’ persistent weaknesses. Additionally, this program also helps to build student’ understanding by its interactive simulation. Currently, the assessment over-emphasizes the students’ answers in the worksheet based on the provided answer keys while students perform their skill in translating the question, doing the simulation and answering the question. Whereas, the assessment should involve the multiple perspectives and sources of students’ performance since teacher should adjust the instructional programs with the complexity of students’ learning needs and styles. Consequently, the approach to improving the assessment components is selected to challenge the current assessment. The purpose of this challenge is to involve not only the cognitive diagnosis but also the analysis of skills and error. Concerning the selected setting for this diagnostic assessment that develops the combination of cognitive diagnosis, skills analysis and error analysis, the teachers should create an assessment rubric. The rubric plays the important role as the guide to provide a set of criteria for the assessment. Without the precise rubric, the teacher potentially ineffectively documents and follows up the data about students at risk of failure. Furthermore, the teachers who employ the program of Gizmos as the diagnostic assessment might encounter some obstacles. Based on the condition of assessment in the selected setting, the obstacles involve the time constrain, the reluctance of higher teaching burden and the students’ behavior. Consequently, the teacher who chooses the Gizmos with those approaches has to plan, implement and evaluate the assessment. The main point of this assessment is not in the result of students’ worksheet. However, the diagnostic assessment has the two-stage process; the process to prompt and effectively follow-up both individual weaknesses and those of the learning process. Ultimately, the discussion of Gizmos as the media of the diagnostic assessment refers to the effort to improve the mathematical learning process.

Keywords: diagnostic assessment, error analysis, Gizmos online program, skills analysis

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Authors: Xiaoyu Shen, Fang Fang, Chujun Qiu

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Herewith we present a Fourier method for credit risk quantification and allocation in the factor-copula model framework. The key insight is that, compared to directly computing the cumulative distribution function of the portfolio loss via Monte Carlo simulation, it is, in fact, more efficient to calculate the transformation of the distribution function in the Fourier domain instead and inverting back to the real domain can be done in just one step and semi-analytically, thanks to the popular COS method (with some adjustments). We also show that the Euler risk allocation problem can be solved in the same way since it can be transformed into the problem of evaluating a conditional cumulative distribution function. Once the conditional or unconditional cumulative distribution function is known, one can easily calculate various risk metrics. The proposed method not only fills the niche in literature, to the best of our knowledge, of accurate numerical methods for risk allocation but may also serve as a much faster alternative to the Monte Carlo simulation method for risk quantification in general. It can cope with various factor-copula model choices, which we demonstrate via examples of a two-factor Gaussian copula and a two-factor Gaussian-t hybrid copula. The fast error convergence is proved mathematically and then verified by numerical experiments, in which Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and conditional Expected Shortfall are taken as examples of commonly used risk metrics. The calculation speed and accuracy are tested to be significantly superior to the MC simulation for real-sized portfolios. The computational complexity is, by design, primarily driven by the number of factors instead of the number of obligors, as in the case of Monte Carlo simulation. The limitation of this method lies in the "curse of dimension" that is intrinsic to multi-dimensional numerical integration, which, however, can be relaxed with the help of dimension reduction techniques and/or parallel computing, as we will demonstrate in a separate paper. The potential application of this method has a wide range: from credit derivatives pricing to economic capital calculation of the banking book, default risk charge and incremental risk charge computation of the trading book, and even to other risk types than credit risk.

Keywords: credit portfolio, risk allocation, factor copula model, the COS method, Fourier method

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Authors: Tareq Oshan

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Facility location and size decisions are important to any company because they affect profitability and success. However, warehouses are exposed to various risks of failure that affect their activity. This paper presents a mixed-integer non-linear mathematical model that can be used to determine optimal warehouse locations and sizes, which warehouses to fortify, and which branches should be assigned to specific warehouses when there is a risk of warehouse failure. Every branch is assigned to a fortified primary warehouse or a nonfortified primary warehouse and a fortified backup warehouse. The standard method and an introduced method, based on the average probabilities, for linearizing this mathematical model were used. A Canadian case study was used to demonstrate the developed mathematical model, followed by some sensitivity analysis.

Keywords: supply chain network design, fortified warehouse, mixed-integer mathematical model, warehouse failure risk

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Authors: Shih-Yu Wang, Shun-Wen Hsiao

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In the field of cybersecurity, there exists many vendors giving malware samples classified results, namely naming after the label that contains some important information which is also called AV label. Lots of researchers relay on AV labels for research. Unfortunately, AV labels are too cluttered. They do not have a fixed format and fixed naming rules because the naming results were based on each classifiers' viewpoints. A way to fix the problem is taking a majority vote. However, voting can sometimes create problems of bias. Thus, we create a novel ensemble approach which does not rely on the cacophonous naming result but depend on group identification to aggregate everyone's opinion. To achieve this purpose, we develop an scoring system called Pairwise Consensus Score (PCS) to calculate result similarity. The entire method architecture combine Genetic Algorithm and PCS to find maximum consensus in the group. Experimental results revealed that our method outperformed the majority voting by 10% in term of the score.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, ensemble learning, malware family, malware labeling, AV labels

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Authors: Saidu I. R., Shittu S. S.

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As the trend of personal devices accessing corporate data continues to rise through Bring Your Own Device (BYOD) practices, organizations recognize the potential cost reduction and productivity gains. However, the associated security risks pose a significant threat to these benefits. Often, organizations adopt BYOD environments without fully considering the vulnerabilities introduced by human factors in this context. This study presents an enhanced assessment model that evaluates the security posture of employees in BYOD environments using cyber hygiene principles. The framework assesses users' adherence to best practices and guidelines for maintaining a secure computing environment, employing scales and the Euclidean distance formula. By utilizing this algorithm, the study measures the distance between users' security practices and the organization's optimal security policies. To facilitate user evaluation, a simple and intuitive interface for automated assessment is developed. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed framework, design science research methods are employed, and empirical assessments are conducted using five artifacts to analyze user suitability in BYOD environments. By addressing the human factor vulnerabilities through the assessment of cyber hygiene practices, this study aims to enhance the overall security of BYOD environments and enable organizations to leverage the advantages of this evolving trend while mitigating potential risks.

Keywords: security, BYOD, vulnerability, risk, cyber hygiene

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Authors: C. L. Wu, W. W. Tseng

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From the National Health Insurance (NHI) system was introduced in Taiwan in 2000, there have been some problems in transformed small-scale hospitals, such as mobility of patients, shortage of nursing staff, medical pipelines breaking fire compartments and insufficient fire protection systems. Due to shrinking of the funding scale and the aging society, fire safety in small-scale hospitals has recently given cause for concern. The aim of this study is to determine fire risk index for small-scale hospital through a systematic approach The selection of fire safety mitigation methods can be regarded as a multi-attribute decision making process which must be guaranteed by expert groups. First of all, identify and select safety related factors and identify evaluation criteria through literature reviews and experts group. Secondly, application of the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process method is used to ascertain a weighted value which enables rating of the importance each of the selected factors. Overall, Sprinkler type and Compartmentation are the most crucial indices in mitigating fire, that is to say, structural approach play an important role to decrease losses in fire events.

Keywords: Fuzzy Delphi Method, fuzzy analytic hierarchy, process risk assessment, fire events

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Authors: Jeena R. S., Sukesh Kumar A.

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Stroke is one of the major reasons of adult disability and morbidity in many of the developing countries like India. Early diagnosis of stroke is essential for timely prevention and cure. Various conventional statistical methods and computational intelligent models have been developed for predicting the risk and outcome of stroke. This research work focuses on a multilevel approach for predicting the occurrence of stroke based on various risk factors and invasive techniques like retinal imaging. This risk prediction model can aid in clinical decision making and help patients to have an improved and reliable risk prediction.

Keywords: prediction, retinal imaging, risk factors, stroke

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Authors: Rob Leslie, Taher Karimian

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The blockage of cross drainage structures is a risk that needs to be understood and managed or lessened through the design. A blockage is a random event, influenced by site-specific factors, which needs to be quantified for design. Under and overestimation of blockage can have major impacts on flood risk and cost associated with drainage structures. The importance of this matter is heightened for those projects located within sensitive lands. It is a particularly complex problem for large linear infrastructure projects (e.g., rail corridors) located within floodplains where blockage factors can influence flooding upstream and downstream of the infrastructure. The selection of the appropriate blockage factors for hydraulic modeling has been subject to extensive research by hydraulic engineers. This paper has been prepared to review the current Australian Rainfall and Runoff 2019 (ARR 2019) methodology for blockage assessment by applying this method to a transport corridor brownfield upgrade case study in New South Wales. The results of applying the method are also validated against asset data and maintenance records. ARR 2019 – Book 6, Chapter 6 includes advice and an approach for estimating the blockage of bridges and culverts. This paper concentrates specifically on the blockage of cross drainage structures. The method has been developed to estimate the blockage level for culverts affected by sediment or debris due to flooding. The objective of the approach is to evaluate a numerical blockage factor that can be utilized in a hydraulic assessment of cross drainage structures. The project included an assessment of over 200 cross drainage structures. In order to estimate a blockage factor for use in the hydraulic model, a process has been advanced that considers the qualitative factors (e.g., Debris type, debris availability) and site-specific hydraulic factors that influence blockage. A site rating associated with the debris potential (i.e., availability, transportability, mobility) at each crossing was completed using the method outlined in ARR 2019 guidelines. The hydraulic results inputs (i.e., flow velocity, flow depth) and qualitative factors at each crossing were developed into an advanced spreadsheet where the design blockage level for cross drainage structures were determined based on the condition relating Inlet Clear Width and L10 (average length of the longest 10% of the debris reaching the site) and the Adjusted Debris Potential. Asset data, including site photos and maintenance records, were then reviewed and compared with the blockage assessment to check the validity of the results. The results of this assessment demonstrate that the estimated blockage factors at each crossing location using ARR 2019 guidelines are well-validated with the asset data. The primary finding of the study is that the ARR 2019 methodology is a suitable approach for culvert blockage assessment that has been validated against a case study spanning a large geographical area and multiple sub-catchments. The study also found that the methodology can be effectively coded within a spreadsheet or similar analytical tool to automate its application.

Keywords: ARR 2019, blockage, culverts, methodology

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Authors: Rohin Rameswarapu, Sameer Valsangkar

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Background: Globally, musculoskeletal disorders are the largest single cause of work-related illnesses accounting for over 33% of all newly reported occupational illnesses. Risk factors for MSD need to be delineated to suggest means for amelioration. Material and methods: In this current cross-sectional study, the prevalence of MSDs among workers in an electrical company assembly line, the socio-demographic and job characteristics associated with MSD were obtained through a semi-structured questionnaire. A quantitative assessment of the physical risk factors through the Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA) tool, and measurement of psychosocial risk factors through a Likert scale was obtained. Statistical analysis was conducted using Epi-info software and descriptive and inferential statistics including chi-square and unpaired t test were obtained. Results: A total of 263 workers consented and participated in the study. Among these workers, 200 (76%) suffered from MSD. Most of the workers were aged between 18–27 years and majority of the workers were women with 198 (75.2%) of the 263 workers being women. A chi square test was significant for association between male gender and MSD with a P value of 0.007. Among the MSD positive group, 4 (2%) had a grand score of 5, 10 (5%) had a grand score of 6 and 186 (93%) had a grand score of 7 on RULA. There were significant differences between the non-MSD and MSD group on five out of the seven psychosocial domains, namely job demand, job monotony, co-worker support, decision control and family and environment domains. Discussion: The current cross-sectional study demonstrates a high prevalence of MSD among assembly line works with inherent physical and psychosocial risk factors and recommends that not only physical risk factors, addressing psychosocial risk factors through proper ergonomic means is also essential to the well-being of the employee.

Keywords: musculoskeletal disorders, India, occupational health, Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA)

Procedia PDF Downloads 310